Public Preferences for Social Distancing Policy Measures to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19 in Missouri

IMPORTANCE

Policies to promote social distancing can minimize COVID-19 transmission but come with substantial social and economic costs. Quantifying relative preferences among the public for such practices can inform locally relevant policy prioritization and optimize uptake.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate relative utilities (ie, preferences) for COVID-19 pandemic social distancing strategies against the hypothetical risk of acquiring COVID-19 and anticipated income loss.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This survey study recruited individuals living in the Missouri area from May to June 2020 via randomly distributed unincentivized social media advertisements and local recruitment platforms for members of minority racial and ethnic groups. Participants answered 6 questions that asked them to choose between 2 hypothetical counties where business closures, social distancing policy duration, COVID-19 infection risk, and income loss varied.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Reweighted population-level relative preferences (utilities) for social distancing policies, subgroups, and latent classes.

RESULTS

The survey had a 3% response rate (3045 of 90 320). Of the 2428 respondents who completed the survey, 1669 (75%) were 35 years and older, 1536 (69%) were women, and 1973 (89%) were White. After reweighting to match Missouri population demographic characteristics, the strongest preference was for the prohibition of large gatherings (mean preference, -1.43; 95% CI, -1.67 to -1.18), with relative indifference to the closure of social and lifestyle venues (mean preference, 0.05; 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.17). There were weak preferences to keep outdoor venues (mean preference, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.61) and schools (mean preference, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.30) open. Latent class analysis revealed 4 distinct preference phenotypes in the population: risk averse (48.9%), conflicted (22.5%), prosocial (14.9%), and back to normal (13.7%), with men twice as likely as women to belong to the back to normal group than the risk averse group (relative risk ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.54 to 3.12).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this survey study using a discrete choice experiment, public health policies that prohibited large gatherings, as well as those that closed social and lifestyle venues, appeared to be acceptable to the public. During policy implementation, these activities should be prioritized for first-phase closures. These findings suggest that policy messages that address preference heterogeneity (eg, focusing on specific preference subgroups or targeting men) could improve adherence to social distancing measures for COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Effects of community-based antiretroviral therapy initiation models on HIV treatment outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in the community and outside of a traditional health facility has the potential to improve linkage to ART, decongest health facilities, and minimize structural barriers to attending HIV services among people living with HIV (PLWH). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the effect of offering ART initiation in the community on HIV treatment outcomes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We searched databases between 1 January 2013 and 22 February 2021 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies that compared offering ART initiation in a community setting to offering ART initiation in a traditional health facility or alternative community setting. We assessed risk of bias, reporting of implementation outcomes, and real-world relevance and used Mantel-Haenszel methods to generate pooled risk ratios (RRs) and risk differences (RDs) with 95% confidence intervals. We evaluated heterogeneity qualitatively and quantitatively and used GRADE to evaluate overall evidence certainty. Searches yielded 4,035 records, resulting in 8 included studies-4 RCTs and 4 observational studies-conducted in Lesotho, South Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, Malawi, Tanzania, and Haiti-a total of 11,196 PLWH. Five studies were conducted in general HIV populations, 2 in key populations, and 1 in adolescents. Community ART initiation strategies included community-based HIV testing coupled with ART initiation at home or at community venues; 5 studies maintained ART refills in the community, and 4 provided refills at the health facility. All studies were pragmatic, but in most cases provided additional resources. Few studies reported on implementation outcomes. All studies showed higher ART uptake in community initiation arms compared to facility initiation and refill arms (standard of care) (RR 1.73, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.45; RD 30%, 95% CI 10% to 50%; 5 studies). Retention (RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.54; RD 19%, 95% CI 11% to 28%; 4 studies) and viral suppression (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.49; RD 15%, 95% CI 10% to 21%; 3 studies) at 12 months were also higher in the community-based ART initiation arms. Improved uptake, retention, and viral suppression with community ART initiation were seen across population subgroups-including men, adolescents, and key populations. One study reported no difference in retention and viral suppression at 2 years. There were limited data on adherence and mortality. Social harms and adverse events appeared to be minimal and similar between community ART initiation and standard of care. One study compared ART refill strategies following community ART initiation (community versus facility refills) and found no difference in viral suppression (RD -7%, 95% CI -19% to 6%) or retention at 12 months (RD -12%, 95% CI -23% to 0.3%). This systematic review was limited by few studies for inclusion, poor-quality observational data, and short-term outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on data from a limited set of studies, community ART initiation appears to result in higher ART uptake, retention, and viral suppression at 1 year compared to facility-based ART initiation. Implementation on a wider scale necessitates broader exploration of costs, logistics, and acceptability by providers and PLWH to ensure that these effects are reproducible when delivered at scale, in different contexts, and over time.

Patterns and Predictors of Incident Return to HIV Care Among Traced, Disengaged Patients in Zambia: Analysis of a Prospective Cohort

BACKGROUND

Dynamic movement of patients in and out of HIV care is prevalent, but there is limited information on patterns of patient re-engagement or predictors of return to guide HIV programs to better support patient engagement.

METHODS

From a probability-based sample of lost to follow-up, adult patients traced by peer educators from 31 Zambian health facilities, we prospectively followed disengaged HIV patients for return clinic visits. We estimated the cumulative incidence of return and the time to return using Kaplan-Meier methods. We used univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to conduct a risk factor analysis identifying predictors of incident return across a social ecological framework.

RESULTS

Of the 556 disengaged patients, 73.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 61.0 to 83.8] returned to HIV care. The median follow-up time from disengagement was 32.3 months (interquartile range: 23.6-38.9). The rate of return decreased with time postdisengagement. Independent predictors of incident return included a previous gap in care [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 1.95, 95% CI: 1.23 to 3.09] and confronting a stigmatizer once in the past year (aHR: 2.14, 95% CI: 1.25 to 3.65). Compared with a rural facility, patients were less likely to return if they sought care from an urban facility (aHR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.96) or hospital (aHR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions are needed to hasten re-engagement in HIV care. Early and differential interventions by time since disengagement may improve intervention effectiveness. Patients in urban and tertiary care settings may need additional support. Improving patient resilience, outreach after a care gap, and community stigma reduction may facilitate return. Future re-engagement research should include causal evaluation of identified factors.

A mega-aggregation framework synthesis of the barriers and facilitators to linkage, adherence to ART and retention in care among people living with HIV

BACKGROUND

People living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) struggle with the challenges of living with a chronic disease and integrating antiretroviral treatment (ART) and care into their daily lives. The aims of this study were as follows: (1) to undertake the first mega-aggregation of qualitative evidence syntheses using the methods of framework synthesis and (2) make sense of existing qualitative evidence syntheses that explore the barriers and facilitators of adherence to antiretroviral treatment, linkage to care and retention in care for PLHIV to identify research gaps.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search and did all screening, data extraction and critical appraisal independently and in duplicate. We used the Kaufman HIV Behaviour Change model (Kaufman et al., 2014) as a framework to synthesise the findings using the mega-aggregative framework synthesis approach, which consists of 8 steps: (1) identify a clearly defined review question and objectives, (2) identify a theoretical framework or model, (3) decide on criteria for considering reviews for inclusion, (4) conduct searching and screening, (5) conduct quality appraisal of the included studies, (6) data extraction and categorisation, (7) present and synthesise the findings, and (8) transparent reporting. We evaluated systematic reviews up to July 2018 and assessed methodological quality, across reviews, using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Systematic Reviews.

RESULTS

We included 33 systematic reviews from low, middle- and high-income countries, which reported on 1,111,964 PLHIV. The methodological quality of included reviews varied considerably. We identified 544 unique third-order concepts from the included systematic reviews, which were reclassified into 45 fourth-order themes within the individual, interpersonal, community, institutional and structural levels of the Kaufman HIV Behaviour Change model. We found that the main influencers of linkage, adherence and retention behaviours were psychosocial and personal characteristics-perceptions of ART, desires, fears, experiences of HIV and ART, coping strategies and mental health issues-interwoven with other factors on the interpersonal, community, institutional and structural level. Using this approach, we found interdependence between factors influencing ART linkage, retention and adherence and identified the need for qualitative evidence that explores, in greater depth, the complex relationships between structural factors and adherence, sociodemographic factors such as community violence and retention, and the experiences of growing up with HIV in low- and middle-income countries-specifically in children, youth, women and key populations.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first mega-aggregation framework synthesis, or synthesis of qualitative evidence syntheses using the methods of framework synthesis at the overview level. We found the novel method to be a transparent and efficient method for assessing the quality and making sense of existing qualitative systematic reviews.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

The protocol of this overview was registered on PROSPERO ( CRD42017078155 ) on 17 December 2017.

A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analyses to Assess the Effectiveness of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Self-testing Distribution Strategies

Background

We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis to identify which human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) self-testing (HIVST) distribution strategies are most effective.

Methods

We abstracted data from randomized controlled trials and observational studies published between 4 June 2006 and 4 June 2019.

Results

We included 33 studies, yielding 6 HIVST distribution strategies. All distribution strategies increased testing uptake compared to standard testing: in sub-Saharan Africa, partner HIVST distribution ranked highest (78% probability); in North America, Asia, and the Pacific regions, web-based distribution ranked highest (93% probability), and facility based distribution ranked second in all settings. Across HIVST distribution strategies HIV positivity and linkage was similar to standard testing.

Conclusions

A range of HIVST distribution strategies are effective in increasing HIV testing. HIVST distribution by sexual partners, web-based distribution, as well as health facility distribution strategies should be considered for implementation to expand the reach of HIV testing services.

Profiles of HIV Care Disruptions Among Adult Patients Lost to Follow-up in Zambia: A Latent Class Analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients report varied barriers to HIV care across multiple domains, but specific barrier patterns may be driven by underlying, but unobserved, behavioral profiles.

METHODS

We traced a probability sample of patients lost to follow-up (>90 days late) as of July 31, 2015 from 64 clinics in Zambia. Among those found alive, we ascertained patient-reported reasons for care disruptions. We performed latent class analysis to identify patient subgroups with similar patterns of reasons reported and assessed the association between class membership and care status (ie, disengaged versus silently transferred to a new site).

RESULTS

Among 547 patients, we identified 5 profiles of care disruptions: (1) "Livelihood and Mobility" (30.6% of the population) reported work/school obligations and mobility/travel as reasons for care disruptions; (2) "Clinic Accessibility" (28.9%) reported challenges with attending clinic; (3) "Mobility and Family" (21.9%) reported family obligations, mobility/travel, and transport-related reasons; (4) "Doubting Need for HIV care" (10.2%) reported uncertainty around HIV status or need for clinical care, and (5) "Multidimensional Barriers to Care" (8.3%) reported numerous (mean 5.6) reasons across multiple domains. Patient profiles were significantly associated with care status. The "Doubting Need for HIV Care" class were mostly disengaged (97.9%), followed by the "Multidimensional Barriers to Care" (62.8%), "Clinic Accessibility" (62.4%), "Livelihood and Mobility" (43.6%), and "Mobility and Family" (23.5%) classes.

CONCLUSION

There are distinct HIV care disruption profiles that are strongly associated with patients' current engagement status. Interventions targeting these unique profiles may enable more effective and tailored strategies for improving HIV treatment outcomes.

Longitudinal Care Cascade Outcomes Among People Eligible for Antiretroviral Therapy Who Are Newly Linking to Care in Zambia: A Multistate Analysis

BACKGROUND

Retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care is dynamic, with patients frequently transitioning in and out of care. Analytical approaches (eg, survival analyses) commonly used to assess HIV care cascade outcomes fail to capture such transitions and therefore incompletely represent care outcomes over time.

METHODS

We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-eligible adults newly linking to care at 64 clinics in Zambia between 1 April 2014 and 31 July 2015. We used electronic medical record data and supplemented these with updated care outcomes ascertained by tracing a multistage random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU, >90 days late for last appointment). We performed multistate analyses, incorporating weights from sampling, to estimate the prevalence of 9 care states over time since linkage with respect to ART initiation, retention in care, transfers, and mortality.

RESULTS

In sum, 23 227 patients (58% female; median age 34 years [interquartile range 28-41]) were ART-eligible at enrollment. At 1 year, 75.2% had initiated ART and were in care: 61.8% were continuously retained, 6.1% had reengaged after LTFU, and 7.3% had transferred. Also, 10.1% were LTFU within 7 days of enrollment, and 15.2% were LTFU at 1 year (6.7% prior to ART). One year after LTFU, 51.6% of those LTFU prior to ART remained out of care compared to 30.2% of those LTFU after initiating ART. Overall, 6.9% of patients had died by 1 year with 3.0% dying prior to ART.

CONCLUSION

Multistate analyses provide more complete assessments of longitudinal HIV cascade outcomes and reveal treatment gaps at distinct timepoints in care that will still need to be addressed even with universal treatment.

Comparing the effects of HIV self-testing to standard HIV testing for key populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

We update a previous systematic review to inform new World Health Organization HIV self-testing (HIVST) recommendations. We compared the effects of HIVST to standard HIV testing services to understand which service delivery models are effective for key populations.

METHODS

We did a systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which compared HIVST to standard HIV testing in key populations, published from 1 January 2006 to 4 June 2019 in PubMed, Embase, Global Index Medicus, Social Policy and Practice, PsycINFO, Health Management Information Consortium, EBSCO CINAHL Plus, Cochrane Library and Web of Science. We extracted study characteristic and outcome data and conducted risk of bias assessments using the Cochrane ROB tool version 1. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted, and pooled effect estimates were assessed along with other evidence characteristics to determine the overall strength of the evidence using GRADE methodology.

RESULTS

After screening 5909 titles and abstracts, we identified 10 RCTs which reported on testing outcomes. These included 9679 participants, of whom 5486 were men who have sex with men (MSM), 72 were trans people and 4121 were female sex workers. Service delivery models included facility-based, online/mail and peer distribution. Support components were highly diverse and ranged from helplines to training and supervision. HIVST increased testing uptake by 1.45 times (RR=1.45 95% CI 1.20, 1.75). For MSM and small numbers of trans people, HIVST increased the mean number of HIV tests by 2.56 over follow-up (mean difference = 2.56; 95% CI 1.24, 3.88). There was no difference between HIVST and SoC in regard to positivity among tested overall (RR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.73, 1.15); in sensitivity analysis of positivity among randomised HIVST identified significantly more HIV infections among MSM and trans people (RR = 2.21; 95% CI 1.20, 4.08) and in online/mail distribution systems (RR = 2.21; 95% CI 1.14, 4.32). Yield of positive results in FSW was not significantly different between HIVST and SoC. HIVST reduced linkage to care by 17% compared to SoC overall (RR = 0.83; 95% CI 0.74, 0.92). Impacts on STI testing were mixed; two RCTs showed no decreases in STI testing while one showed significantly lower STI testing in the intervention arm. There were no negative impacts on condom use (RR = 0.95; 95% CI 0.83, 1.08), and social harm was very rare.

CONCLUSIONS

HIVST is safe and increases testing uptake and frequency as well as yield of positive results for MSM and trans people without negative effects on linkage to HIV care, STI testing, condom use or social harm. Testing uptake was increased for FSW, yield of positive results were not and linkage to HIV care was worse. Strategies to improve linkage to care outcomes for both groups are crucial for effective roll-out.

Brief Report: Understanding Preferences for HIV Care Among Patients Experiencing Homelessness or Unstable Housing: A Discrete Choice Experiment

BACKGROUND

Homelessness and unstable housing (HUH) negatively impact care outcomes for people living with HIV (PLWH). To inform the design of a clinic program for PLWH experiencing HUH, we quantified patient preferences and trade-offs across multiple HIV-service domains using a discrete choice experiment (DCE).

METHODS

We sequentially sampled PLWH experiencing HUH presenting at an urban HIV clinic with ≥1 missed primary care visit and viremia in the last year to conduct a DCE. Participants chose between 2 hypothetical clinics varying across 5 service attributes: care team "get to know me as a person" versus not; receiving $10, $15, or $20 gift cards for clinic visits; drop-in versus scheduled visits; direct phone communication to care team versus front-desk staff; and staying 2 versus 20 blocks from the clinic. We estimated attribute relative utility (ie, preference) using mixed-effects logistic regression and calculated the monetary trade-off of preferred options.

RESULTS

Among 65 individuals interviewed, 61% were >40 years old, 45% White, 77% men, 25% heterosexual, 56% lived outdoors/emergency housing, and 44% in temporary housing. Strongest preferences were for patient-centered care team [β = 3.80; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.57 to 5.02] and drop-in clinic appointments (β = 1.33; 95% CI: 0.85 to 1.80), with a willingness to trade $32.79 (95% CI: 14.75 to 50.81) and $11.45 (95% CI: 2.95 to 19.95) in gift cards/visit, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this DCE, PLWH experiencing HUH were willing to trade significant financial gain to have a personal relationship with and drop-in access to their care team rather than more resource-intensive services. These findings informed Ward 86's "POP-UP" program for PLWH-HUH and can inform "ending the HIV epidemic" efforts.

Understanding patient transfers across multiple clinics in Zambia among HIV infected adults

Many patients in HIV care in Africa considered lost to follow up (LTFU) at one facility are reportedly accessing care in another. The success of these unofficial transfers as measured by time to re-entry at the new-facility, prevalence of treatment interruptions, speed of ART-initiation, and overall continuity of care is not well characterized but may reveal opportunities for improvement. We traced a random sample of LTFU HIV-infected patients in Zambia. Among those found alive and reported in care at a new-facility, we reviewed records at the receiving facility to verify transfer; and when verified, documented the transfer experience. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to examine incidence of ART-initiation after transfer to new clinic. We assessed demographic and clinical characteristics, official and cross-provincial transfer for associations with HIV treatment re-engagement using Poisson regression models and associations between official-transfer and same-day ART initiation at the new-facility. Among 350 LTFU-patients, 178 (51%) were successfully verified through chart review at the new-facility. 132 (74.2%) were female, 72 (40.4%) aged 25-35, and 51% were ever recorded as previously being on ART. 110 patients (61.8%) were registered under new ART-IDs and 97 (54.5%) received a new HIV test. 54% of those previously on ART-initiated on the same-day. Using the same ART-ID was associated with same-day initiation compared to those receiving a new ART-ID (p = 0.07). 80% (n = 91) of those ever on ART had evidence of medication initiation at new clinic. Among these, initiation reached 66% (95% CI: 56-75) by 30 days, 77.5% (95% CI: 68-86) by 90 days after new-facility presentation. Many patients use new identifiers at new facilities, indicative of inefficiencies. Re-entry into new facilities among the unofficial-transfer population is often delayed and timely treatment initiation is inconsistent, suggesting interruptions in treatment. Health systems innovations to ensure smooth and safe transfers are needed to maintain quality HIV care.

Exploring Relative Preferences for HIV Service Features Using Discrete Choice Experiments: a Synthetic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Aligning HIV treatment services with patient preferences can promote long-term engagement. A rising number of studies solicit such preferences using discrete choice experiments, but have not been systematically reviewed to seek generalizable insights. Using a systematic search, we identified eleven choice experiments evaluating preferences for HIV treatment services published between 2004 and 2020.

RECENT FINDINGS

Across settings, the strongest preference was for nice, patient-centered providers, for which participants were willing to trade considerable amounts of time, money, and travel distance. In low- and middle-income countries, participants also preferred collecting antiretroviral therapy (ART) less frequently than 1 monthly, but showed no strong preference for 3-compared with 6-month refill frequency. Facility waiting times and travel distances were also important but were frequently outranked by stronger preferences. Health facility-based services were preferred to community- or home-based services, but this preference varied by setting. In high-income countries, the availability of unscheduled appointments was highly valued. Stigma was rarely explored and costs were a ubiquitous driver of preferences. While present improvement efforts have focused on designs to enhance access (reduced waiting time, travel distance, and ART refill frequency), few initiatives focus on the patient-provider interaction, which represents a promising critical area for inquiry and investment. If HIV programs hope to truly deliver patient-centered care, they will need to incorporate patient preferences into service delivery strategies. Discrete choice experiments can not only inform such strategies but also contribute to prioritization efforts for policy-making decisions.

Understanding Engagement in HIV Programmes: How Health Services Can Adapt to Ensure No One Is Left Behind

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Despite the significant progress in the HIV response, gaps remain in ensuring engagement in care to support life-long medication adherence and viral suppression. This review sought to describe the different points in the HIV care cascade where people living with HIV were not engaging and highlight promising interventions.

RECENT FINDINGS

There are opportunities to improve engagement both between testing and treatment and to support re-engagement in care for those in a treatment interruption. The gap between testing and treatment includes people who know their HIV status and people who do not know their status. People in a treatment interruption include those who interrupt immediately following initiation, early on in their treatment (first 6 months) and late (after 6 months or more on ART). For each of these groups, specific interventions are required to support improved engagement. There are diverse needs and specific populations of people living with HIV who are not engaged in care, and differentiated service delivery interventions are required to meet their needs and expectations. For the HIV response to realise the 2030 targets, engagement will need to be supported by quality care and patient choice combined with empowered patients who are treatment literate and have been supported to improve self-management.

Mortality estimates by age and sex among persons living with HIV after ART initiation in Zambia using electronic medical records supplemented with tracing a sample of lost patients: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Men in sub-Saharan Africa have lower engagement and retention in HIV services compared to women, which may result in differential survival. However, the true magnitude of difference in HIV-related mortality between men and women receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is incompletely characterized.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated HIV-positive adults ≥18 years old newly initiating ART in 4 Zambian provinces (Eastern, Lusaka, Southern, and Western). In addition to mortality data obtained from routine electronic medical records, we intensively traced a random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) and incorporated tracing outcomes through inverse probability weights. Sex-specific mortality rates and rate differences were determined using Poisson regression. Parametric g-computation was used to estimate adjusted mortality rates by sex and age. The study included 49,129 adults newly initiated on ART between August 2013 and July 2015; overall, the median age among patients was 35 years, the median baseline CD4 count was 262 cells/μl, and 37.2% were men. Men comprised a smaller proportion of individuals starting ART (37.2% versus 62.8%), tended to be older (median age 37 versus 33 years), and tended to have lower CD4 counts (median 220 versus 289 cells/μl) at the time of ART initiation compared to women. The overall rate of mortality among men was 10.3 (95% CI 8.2-12.4) deaths/100 person-years (PYs), compared to 5.5 (95% CI 4.3-6.8) deaths/100 PYs among women (difference +4.7 [95% CI 2.3-7.2] deaths/100 PYs; p < 0.001). Compared to women in the same age groups, men's mortality rates were particularly elevated among those <30 years old (+6.7 deaths/100 PYs difference), those attending rural health centers (+9.4 deaths/100 PYs difference), those who had an initial CD4 count < 100 cells/μl (+9.2 deaths/100 PYs difference), and those who were unmarried (+8.0 deaths/100 PYs difference). After adjustment for potential confounders and mediators including CD4 count, a substantially higher mortality rate was predicted among men <30 years old compared to women of the same age, while women ≥50 years old had a mortality rate similar to that of age-matched men, but considerably higher than that predicted among young women (<30 years old). No clinically significant differences were evident with respect to rates of facility transfer or care disengagement between men and women. The main study limitations were the inability to successfully ascertain outcomes in all patients selected for tracing and missing clinical and laboratory data due to the use of medical records.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that among HIV-positive adults newly initiating ART, mortality among men exceeded mortality among women; disparities were most pronounced among young patients. Older women, however, also experienced high mortality. Specific interventions for men and older women at highest mortality risk are needed to improve HIV treatment outcomes.

324. Outcomes of Immunomodulatory and Biologic Therapy in People Living with HIV: A Report from Two Academic Hospitals

Background

The use of immunomodulatory drugs (IMDs) is increasingly common. However, data on outcomes of IMD use in people living with HIV (PLWH) are limited and may be biased due to selective reporting of certain outcomes. Institution-level data reflecting patient-time at risk have not been described.

Methods

We systematically identified all PLWH prescribed non-steroidal IMDs from 2012 to 2019 at two centers. We defined a treatment episode (TE) as an uninterrupted period on a particular IMD regimen. Patients contributed multiple TEs if interrupting or switching therapy. We excluded those with lymphoproliferative disorders or transplants. We quantified infections and blips, defined as a detectable viral load following an undetectable result.

Results

35 patients contributed 55 TEs comprising 24,020 patient-days at risk. 29/35 (83%) were male, median age was 53 (IQR 39–59), median CD4 nadir was 197 (IQR 100–314), and 12/35 (34%) had a prior opportunistic infection. TEs utilized TNF inhibitors (19/55, 35%), PD-1 inhibitors (11/55, 20%), antimetabolites (7/55, 13%), interleukin inhibitors (7/55, 13%), and other agents (7/55, 13%). 4/55 (7%) involved in dual therapy. 32/35 (94%) patients were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at IMD initiation; one was off therapy, one already on IMDs-acquired HIV, and one was an elite controller. Median CD4 count was 472 (IQR 337–807); CD4 was < 500 in 28/55 TEs (51%). Preceding plasma HIV RNA was undetectable in 36/55 (65%) TEs. Of these, 18 (50%) were associated with a viral blip within 1 year; one blip was >200 copies and none resulted in sustained viremia. Compared with other agents, PD-1 inhibitors were associated with a higher blip rate (incidence rate ratio 4.3, 1.3–12.3). 17/55 (32%) TEs were initiated with detectable plasma HIV RNA, which declined on ART in 13/15 (87%) TEs with follow-up testing; one patient stopped ART and one later suppressed. 9/55 (16%) TEs involved an infectious complication (7 soft-tissue infections, 2 pneumonias), although none was clearly attributed to IMDs. 36/55 (65%) TEs had good therapeutic response.

Conclusion

IMDs can be used without major complications in PLWH on ART, including those not yet suppressed or with CD4 counts < 500. PD-1 inhibitors may be associated with a higher rate of viral blips, although the clinical significance is unclear.

Disclosures

All authors: No reported disclosures.

Longitudinal engagement trajectories and risk of death among new ART starters in Zambia: A group-based multi-trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND

Retention in HIV treatment must be improved to advance the HIV response, but research to characterize gaps in retention has focused on estimates from single time points and population-level averages. These approaches do not assess the engagement patterns of individual patients over time and fail to account for both their dynamic nature and the heterogeneity between patients. We apply group-based trajectory analysis-a special application of latent class analysis to longitudinal data-among new antiretroviral therapy (ART) starters in Zambia to identify groups defined by engagement patterns over time and to assess their association with mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed a cohort of HIV-infected adults who newly started ART between August 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, across 64 clinics in Zambia. We performed group-based multi-trajectory analysis to identify subgroups with distinct trajectories in medication possession ratio (MPR, a validated adherence metric based on pharmacy refill data) over the past 3 months and loss to follow-up (LTFU, >90 days late for last visit) among patients with at least 180 days of observation time. We used multinomial logistic regression to identify baseline factors associated with belonging to particular trajectory groups. We obtained Kaplan-Meier estimates with bootstrapped confidence intervals of the cumulative incidence of mortality stratified by trajectory group and performed adjusted Poisson regression to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) for mortality by trajectory group. Inverse probability weights were applied to all analyses to account for updated outcomes ascertained from tracing a random subset of patients lost to follow-up as of July 31, 2015. Overall, 38,879 patients (63.3% female, median age 35 years [IQR 29-41], median enrollment CD4 count 280 cells/μl [IQR 146-431]) were included in our cohort. Analyses revealed 6 trajectory groups among the new ART starters: (1) 28.5% of patients demonstrated consistently high adherence and retention; (2) 22.2% showed early nonadherence but consistent retention; (3) 21.6% showed gradually decreasing adherence and retention; (4) 8.6% showed early LTFU with later reengagement; (5) 8.7% had early LTFU without reengagement; and (6) 10.4% had late LTFU without reengagement. Identified groups exhibited large differences in survival: after adjustment, the "early LTFU with reengagement" group (aIRR 3.4 [95% CI 1.2-9.7], p = 0.019), the "early LTFU" group (aIRR 6.4 [95% CI 2.5-16.3], p < 0.001), and the "late LTFU" group (aIRR 4.7 [95% CI 2.0-11.3], p = 0.001) had higher rates of mortality as compared to the group with consistently high adherence/retention. Limitations of this study include using data observed after baseline to identify trajectory groups and to classify patients into these groups, excluding patients who died or transferred within the first 180 days, and the uncertain generalizability of the data to current care standards.

CONCLUSIONS

Among new ART starters in Zambia, we observed 6 patient subgroups that demonstrated distinctive engagement trajectories over time and that were associated with marked differences in the subsequent risk of mortality. Further efforts to develop tailored intervention strategies for different types of engagement behaviors, monitor early engagement to identify higher-risk patients, and better understand the determinants of these heterogeneous behaviors can help improve care delivery and survival in this population.

Correction: Retention and viral suppression in a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: Regionally representative estimates using a multistage-sampling-based approach

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002811.].

Rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Despite antiretroviral therapy (ART) being widely available, HIV continues to cause substantial illness and premature death in low-and-middle-income countries. High rates of loss to follow-up after HIV diagnosis can delay people starting ART. Starting ART within seven days of HIV diagnosis (rapid ART initiation) could reduce loss to follow-up, improve virological suppression rates, and reduce mortality.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of interventions for rapid initiation of ART (defined as offering ART within seven days of HIV diagnosis) on treatment outcomes and mortality in people living with HIV. We also aimed to describe the characteristics of rapid ART interventions used in the included studies.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, MEDLINE, Embase, and four other databases up to 14 August 2018. There was no restriction on date, language, or publication status. We also searched ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and websites for unpublished literature, including conference abstracts.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared rapid ART versus standard care in people living with HIV. Children, adults, and adolescents from any setting were eligible for inclusion.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed the eligibility of the studies identified in the search, assessed the risk of bias and extracted data. The primary outcomes were mortality and virological suppression at 12 months. We have presented all outcomes using risk ratios (RR), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Where appropriate, we pooled the results in meta-analysis. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included seven studies with 18,011 participants in the review. All studies were carried out in low- and middle-income countries in adults aged 18 years old or older. Only one study included pregnant women.In all the studies, the rapid ART intervention was offered as part of a package that included several cointerventions targeting individuals, health workers and health system processes delivered alongside rapid ART that aimed to facilitate uptake and adherence to ART.Comparing rapid ART with standard initiation probably results in greater viral suppression at 12 months (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.27; 2719 participants, 4 studies; moderate-certainty evidence) and better ART uptake at 12 months (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.12; 3713 participants, 4 studies; moderate-certainty evidence), and may improve retention in care at 12 months (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.35; 5001 participants, 6 studies; low-certainty evidence). Rapid ART initiation was associated with a lower mortality estimate, however the CIs included no effect when compared to standard of care (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.01; 5451 participants, 7 studies; very low-certainty evidence). It is uncertain whether rapid ART has an effect on modification of ART treatment regimens as data are lacking (RR 7.89, 95% CI 0.76 to 81.74; 977 participants, 2 studies; very low-certainty evidence). There was insufficient evidence to draw conclusions on the occurrence of adverse events.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

RCTs that include initiation of ART within one week of diagnosis appear to improve outcomes across the HIV treatment cascade in low- and middle-income settings. The studies demonstrating these effects delivered rapid ART combined with several setting-specific cointerventions. This highlights the need for pragmatic research to identify feasible packages that assure the effects seen in the trials when delivered through complex health systems.

Retention and viral suppression in a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: Regionally representative estimates using a multistage-sampling-based approach

BACKGROUND

Although the success of HIV treatment programs depends on retention and viral suppression, routine program monitoring of these outcomes may be incomplete. We used data from the national electronic medical record (EMR) system in Zambia to enumerate a large and regionally representative cohort of patients on treatment. We traced a random sample with unknown outcomes (lost to follow-up) to document true care status and HIV RNA levels.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

On 31 July 2015, we selected facilities from 4 provinces in 12 joint strata defined by facility type and province with probability proportional to size. In each facility, we enumerated adults with at least 1 clinical encounter after treatment initiation in the previous 24 months. From this cohort, we identified lost-to-follow-up patients (defined as 90 or more days late for their last appointment), selected a random sample, and intensively reviewed their records and traced them via phone calls and in-person visits in the community. In 1 of 4 provinces, we also collected dried blood spots (DBSs) for plasma HIV RNA testing. We used inverse probability weights to incorporate sampling outcomes into Aalen-Johansen and Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate retention and viremia. We used a bias analysis approach to correct for the known inaccuracy of plasma HIV RNA levels obtained from DBSs. From a total of 64 facilities with 165,464 adults on ART, we selected 32 facilities with 104,966 patients, of whom 17,602 (17%) were lost to follow-up: Those lost to follow-up had median age 36 years, 60% were female (N = 11,241), they had median enrollment CD4 count of 220 cells/μl, and 38% had WHO stage 1 clinical disease (N = 10,690). We traced 2,892 (16%) and found updated outcomes for 2,163 (75%): 412 (19%) had died, 836 (39%) were alive and in care at their original clinic, 457 (21%) had transferred to a new clinic, 255 (12%) were alive and out of care, and 203 (9%) were alive but we were unable to determine care status. Estimates using data from the EMR only suggested that 42.7% (95% CI 38.0%-47.1%) of new ART starters and 72.3% (95% CI 71.8%-73.0%) of all ART users were retained at 2 years. After incorporating updated data through tracing, we found that 77.3% (95% CI 70.5%-84.0%) of new initiates and 91.2% (95% CI 90.5%-91.8%) of all ART users were retained (at original clinic or transferred), indicating that routine program data underestimated retention in care markedly. In Lusaka Province, HIV RNA levels greater than or equal to 1,000 copies/ml were present in 18.1% (95% CI 14.0%-22.3%) of patients in care, 71.3% (95% CI 58.2%-84.4%) of lost patients, and 24.7% (95% CI 21.0%-29.3%). The main study limitations were imperfect response rates and the use of self-reported care status.

CONCLUSIONS

In this region of Zambia, routine program data underestimated retention, and the point prevalence of unsuppressed HIV RNA was high when lost patients were accounted for. Viremia was prevalent among patients who unofficially transferred: Sustained engagement remains a challenge among HIV patients in Zambia, and targeted sampling is an effective strategy to identify such gaps in the care cascade and monitor programmatic progress.

Maintaining relevance in HIV systematic reviews: an evaluation of Cochrane reviews

BACKGROUND

Research turnover in the HIV field is rapid, and as a result, maintaining high-quality, up-to-date, and relevant systematic reviews is a challenge. One approach is to frequently update published reviews.

METHODS

We evaluated the methods and relevance of all HIV systematic reviews and protocols published in the Cochrane Library over a 16-year period (2000-2016) to determine the need to update published reviews or complete of reviews in progress.

RESULTS

Of 148 published reviews and protocols, 129 (87%) were identified as not for updating or progression to publication, mostly due to research questions which were either entirely outdated or addressed questions in an outdated manner (N = 89; 60%); this was anticipated for older reviews, but was found also to be the case for recent publications. Some research questions were also inadequately conceptualized, particularly when complex pragmatic trials or behavioral interventions were included.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that authors clearly characterize interventions and synthesis approaches in their review protocols. In research fields, such as HIV, where questions change frequently, systematic reviews and protocols should be regularly re-evaluated to ensure relevance to current questions. This process of re-evaluation should be incorporated into the methods of living systematic reviews.

Being HIV positive and staying on antiretroviral therapy in Africa: A qualitative systematic review and theoretical model

BACKGROUND

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and long-term uninterrupted engagement in HIV care is difficult for HIV-positive people, and randomized trials of specific techniques to promote adherence often show small or negligible effects. Understanding what influences decision-making in HIV-positive people in Africa may help researchers and policy makers in the development of broader, more effective interventions and policies.

METHODS

We used thematic synthesis and a grounded theory approach to generate a detailed narrative and theoretical model reflecting life with HIV in Africa, and how this influences ART adherence and engagement decisions. We included qualitative primary studies that explored perspectives, perceptions and experiences of HIV-positive people, caregivers and healthcare service providers. We searched databases from 1 January 2013 to 9 December 2016, screened all studies, and selected those for inclusion using purposeful sampling methods. Included studies were coded with Atlas.ti, and we assessed methodological quality across five domains.

RESULTS

We included 59 studies from Africa in the synthesis. Nine themes emerged which we grouped under three main headings. First, people who are HIV-positive live in a complicated world where they must navigate the challenges presented by poverty, competing priorities, unpredictable life events, social identity, gender norms, stigma, and medical pluralism-these influences can make initiating and maintaining ART difficult. Second, the health system is generally seen as punishing and uninviting and this can drive HIV-positive people out of care. Third, long-term engagement and adherence requires adaptation and incorporation of ART into daily life, a process which is facilitated by: inherent self-efficacy, social responsibilities, previous HIV-related illnesses and emotional, practical or financial support. These factors together can lead to a "tipping point", a point in time when patients choose to either engage or disengage from care. HIV-positive people may cycle in and out of these care states in response to fluctuations in influences over time.

CONCLUSION

This analysis provides a practical theory, arising from thematic synthesis of research, to help understand the dynamics of adherence to ART and engagement in HIV care. This can contribute to the design of service delivery approaches, and informed thinking and action on the part of policy makers, providers, and society: to understand what it is to be HIV-positive in Africa and how attitudes and the health service need to shift to help those with HIV lead 'normal' lives.

Understanding preferences for HIV care and treatment in Zambia: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment among patients who have been lost to follow-up

BACKGROUND

In public health HIV treatment programs in Africa, long-term retention remains a challenge. A number of improvement strategies exist (e.g., bring services closer to home, reduce visit frequency, expand hours of clinic operation, improve provider attitude), but implementers lack data about which to prioritize when resource constraints preclude implementing all. We used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to quantify preferences for a number of potential clinic improvements to enhance retention.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We sought a random sample of HIV patients who were lost to follow-up (defined as >90 days late for their last scheduled appointment) from treatment facilities in Lusaka Province, Zambia. Among those contacted, we asked patients to choose between 2 hypothetical clinics in which the following 5 attributes of those facilities were varied: waiting time at the clinic (1, 3, or 5 hours), distance from residence to clinic (5, 10, or 20 km), ART supply given at each refill (1, 3, or 5 months), hours of operation (morning only, morning and afternoon, or morning and Saturday), and staff attitude ("rude" or "nice"). We used mixed-effects logistic regression to estimate relative utility (i.e., preference) for each attribute level. We calculated how much additional waiting time or travel distance patients were willing to accept in order to obtain other desired features of care. Between December 9, 2015 and May 31, 2016, we offered the survey to 385 patients, and 280 participated (average age 35; 60% female). Patients exhibited a strong preference for nice as opposed to rude providers (relative utility of 2.66; 95% CI 1.9-3.42; p < 0.001). In a standard willingness to wait or willingness to travel analysis, patients were willing to wait 19 hours more or travel 45 km farther to see nice rather than rude providers. An alternative analysis, in which trade-offs were constrained to values actually posed to patients in the experiment, suggested that patients were willing to accept a facility located 10 km from home (as opposed to 5) that required 5 hours of waiting per visit (as opposed to 1 hour) and that dispensed 3 months of medications (instead of 5) in order to access nice (as opposed to rude) providers. This study was limited by the fact that attributes included in the experiment may not have captured additional important determinants of preference.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, patients were willing to expend considerable time and effort as well as accept substantial inconvenience in order to access providers with a nice attitude. In addition to service delivery redesign (e.g., differentiated service delivery models), current improvement strategies should also prioritize improving provider attitude and promoting patient centeredness-an area of limited policy attention to date.

Estimated mortality on HIV treatment among active patients and patients lost to follow-up in 4 provinces of Zambia: Findings from a multistage sampling-based survey

BACKGROUND

Survival represents the single most important indicator of successful HIV treatment. Routine monitoring fails to capture most deaths. As a result, both regional assessments of the impact of HIV services and identification of hotspots for improvement efforts are limited. We sought to assess true mortality on treatment, characterize the extent under-reporting of mortality in routine health information systems in Zambia, and identify drivers of mortality across sites and over time using a multistage, regionally representative sampling approach.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We enumerated all HIV infected adults on antiretroviral therapy (ART) who visited any one of 64 facilities across 4 provinces in Zambia during the 24-month period from 1 August 2013 to 31 July 2015. We identified a probability sample of patients who were lost to follow-up through selecting facilities probability proportional to size and then a simple random sample of lost patients. Outcomes among patients lost to follow-up were incorporated into survival analysis and multivariate regression through probability weights. Of 165,464 individuals (64% female, median age 39 years (IQR 33-46), median CD4 201 cells/mm3 (IQR 111-312), the 2-year cumulative incidence of mortality increased from 1.9% (95% CI 1.7%-2.0%) to a corrected rate of 7.0% (95% CI 5.7%-8.4%) (all ART users) and from 2.1% (95% CI 1.8%-2.4%) to 8.3% (95% CI 6.1%-10.7%) (new ART users). Revised provincial mortality rates ranged from 3-9 times higher than naïve rates for new ART users and were lowest in Lusaka Province (4.6 per 100 person-years) and highest in Western Province (8.7 per 100 person-years) after correction. Corrected mortality rates varied markedly by clinic, with an IQR of 3.5 to 7.5 deaths per 100 person-years and a high of 13.4 deaths per 100 person-years among new ART users, even after adjustment for clinical (e.g., pretherapy CD4) and contextual (e.g., province and clinic size) factors. Mortality rates (all ART users) were highest year 1 after treatment at 4.6/100 person-years (95% CI 3.9-5.5), 2.9/100 person-years (95% CI 2.1-3.9) in year 2, and approximately 1.6% per year through 8 years on treatment. In multivariate analysis, patient-level factors including male sex and pretherapy CD4 levels and WHO stage were associated with higher mortality among new ART users, while male sex and HIV disclosure were associated with mortality among all ART users. In both cases, being late (>14 days late for appointment) or lost (>90 days late for an appointment) was associated with deaths. We were unable to ascertain the vital status of about one-quarter of those lost and selected for tracing and did not adjudicate causes of death.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV treatment in Zambia is not optimally effective. The high and sustained mortality rates and marked under-reporting of mortality at the provincial-level and unexplained heterogeneity between regions and sites suggest opportunities for the use of corrected mortality rates for quality improvement. A regionally representative sampling-based approach can bring gaps and opportunities for programs into clear epidemiological focus for local and global decision makers.