Prevalence, Clinical Severity, and Seasonality of Adenovirus 40/41, Astrovirus, Sapovirus, and Rotavirus Among Young Children With Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea: Results From the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study

BACKGROUND

While rotavirus causes severe diarrheal disease in children aged <5 years, data on other viral causes in sub-Saharan Africa are limited.

METHODS

In the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa study (2015-2018), we analyzed stool from children aged 0-59 months with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and without diarrhea (controls) in Kenya, Mali, and The Gambia using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. We derived the attributable fraction (AFe) based on the association between MSD and the pathogen, accounting for other pathogens, site, and age. A pathogen was attributable if the AFe was ≥0.5.The severity of attributable MSD was defined by a modified Vesikari score (mVS). Monthly cases were plotted against temperature and rainfall to assess seasonality.

RESULTS

Among 4840 MSD cases, proportions attributed to rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, astrovirus, and sapovirus were 12.6%, 2.7%, 2.9%, and 1.9%, respectively. Attributable rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, and astrovirus MSD cases occurred at all sites, with mVS of 11, 10, and 7, respectively. MSD cases attributable to sapovirus occurred in Kenya, with mVS of 9. Astrovirus and adenovirus 40/41 peaked during the rainy season in The Gambia, while rotavirus peaked during the dry season in Mali and The Gambia.

CONCLUSIONS

In sub-Saharan Africa, rotavirus was the most common cause of MSD; adenovirus 40/41, astrovirus, and sapovirus contributed to a lesser extent among children aged <5 years. Rotavirus- and adenovirus 40/41-attributable MSD were most severe. Seasonality varied by pathogen and location. Efforts to increase the coverage of rotavirus vaccines and to improve prevention and treatment for childhood diarrhea should continue.

Antibiotic-Prescribing Practices for Management of Childhood Diarrhea in 3 Sub-Saharan African Countries: Findings From the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study, 2015-2018

BACKGROUND

Despite antibiotic prescription being recommended for dysentery and suspected cholera only, diarrhea still triggers unwarranted antibiotic prescription. We evaluated antibiotic-prescribing practices and their predictors among children aged 2-59 months in the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study performed in The Gambia, Mali, and Kenya.

METHODS

VIDA was a prospective case-control study (May 2015-July 2018) among children presenting for care with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD). We defined inappropriate antibiotic use as prescription or use of antibiotics when not indicated by World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. We used logistic regression to assess factors associated with antibiotic prescription for MSD cases who had no indication for an antibiotic, at each site.

RESULTS

VIDA enrolled 4840 cases. Among 1757 (36.3%) who had no apparent indication for antibiotic treatment, 1358 (77.3%) were prescribed antibiotics. In The Gambia, children who presented with a cough (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.05; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.21-3.48) were more likely to be prescribed an antibiotic. In Mali, those who presented with dry mouth (aOR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.02-9.73) were more likely to be prescribed antibiotics. In Kenya, those who presented with a cough (aOR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.01-4.70), decreased skin turgor (aOR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.02-4.16), and were very thirsty (aOR: 4.15; 95% CI: 1.78-9.68) were more likely to be prescribed antibiotics.

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic prescription was associated with signs and symptoms inconsistent with WHO guidelines, suggesting the need for antibiotic stewardship and clinician awareness of diarrhea case-management recommendations in these settings.

Exploring Survey-Based Water, Sanitation, and Animal Associations With Enteric Pathogen Carriage: Comparing Results in a Cohort of Cases With Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea to Those in Controls in the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study, 2015-2018

BACKGROUND

The magnitude of pediatric enteric pathogen exposures in low-income settings necessitates substantive water and sanitation interventions, including animal feces management. We assessed associations between pediatric enteric pathogen detection and survey-based water, sanitation, and animal characteristics within the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa case-control study.

METHODS

In The Gambia, Kenya, and Mali, we assessed enteric pathogens in stool of children aged <5 years with moderate-to-severe diarrhea and their matched controls (diarrhea-free in prior 7 days) via the TaqMan Array Card and surveyed caregivers about household drinking water and sanitation conditions and animals living in the compound. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using modified Poisson regression models, stratified for cases and controls and adjusted for age, sex, site, and demographics.

RESULTS

Bacterial (cases, 93%; controls, 72%), viral (63%, 56%), and protozoal (50%, 38%) pathogens were commonly detected (cycle threshold <35) in the 4840 cases and 6213 controls. In cases, unimproved sanitation (RR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.12-2.17), as well as cows (RR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.16-2.24) and sheep (RR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.11-1.96) living in the compound, were associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli. In controls, fowl (RR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.15-1.47) were associated with Campylobacter spp. In controls, surface water sources were associated with Cryptosporidium spp., Shigella spp., heat-stable toxin-producing enterotoxigenic E. coli, and Giardia spp.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings underscore the importance of enteric pathogen exposure risks from animals alongside more broadly recognized water and sanitation risk factors in children.

Association of Circulating Biomarkers with Growth and Cognitive Development in Rural Tanzania: A Secondary Analysis of the Early Life Interventions in Childhood Growth and Development In Tanzania (ELICIT) Study

BACKGROUND

Children in low-resource areas experience nutritional and infection challenges delaying growth and cognitive development.

OBJECTIVE

Our goal was to assess for associations of circulating biomarkers related to nutrition and inflammation, with growth and developmental outcomes among children in a birth cohort in a resource-poor area in rural Tanzania.

METHODS

We assessed data from 1120 children participating in the Early Life Interventions for Childhood Growth and Development in Tanzania (ELICIT) study. At age 12 and 18 months participants had blood tests performed for hemoglobin, collagen-X, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), fibroblast growth-factor-21 (FGF21), thyroglobulin, ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTFR), retinol binding protein-4 (RBP4), C-reactive protein (CRP), alpha(1)-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and CD14. At 18 months, participants had anthropometry measured and converted to z-scores for length-for-age (LAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ) and head-circumference-for-age (HCZ) and had the Malawi Developmental Assessment Tool (MDAT) performed to evaluate cognitive development. We performed linear regression assessing biomarkers (predictor variable) on anthropometry and MDAT scores (dependent variables), adjusted for sex, socioeconomic status and baseline values.

RESULTS

There was a high degree of intra-factor correlation between 12 and 18 months, and inter-factor correlation between biomarkers. IGF-1 and sTFR were positively- and FGF21 and ferritin negatively-associated with LAZ 18 months, while collagen-X and CD14 were additionally associated with recent linear growth. Only markers predominantly related to nutrition were consistently linked with WAZ at 18 months, while RBP4 and AGP were additionally associated with recent change in WAZ. IGF-1 was positively- and thyroglobulin, RBP4 and CD14 negatively linked to MDAT scores. IGF-1 was the only factor linked to both 18-month LAZ and MDAT.

CONCLUSIONS

Individual biomarkers were consistently linked to growth and cognitive outcomes, providing support for relationships between nutrition and inflammation in early child development. Further research is needed to assess overlaps in how biomarker-related processes interact with both growth and learning.

Clinical prediction rule to guide diagnostic testing for Shigellosis and improve antibiotic stewardship for pediatric diarrhea

Background

Diarrheal diseases are a leading cause of death for children under-5. Identification of etiology helps guide pathogen-specific therapy, but availability of diagnostic testing is often limited in low resource settings. Our goal is to develop a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to guide clinicians in identifying when to use a point-of-care diagnostic for Shigella in children presenting with acute diarrhea.

Methods

We used clinical and demographic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) study to build predictive models for diarrhea of Shigella etiology in children ≤59 months presenting with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in Africa and Asia. We screened variables using random forests, and assessed predictive performance with random forest regression and logistic regression using cross-validation. We used the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study to externally validate our GEMS-derived CPR.

Results

Of the 5011 cases analyzed, 1332 (27%) had diarrhea of Shigella etiology. Our CPR had high predictive ability (AUC=0.80 (95% CI: 0.79, 0.81) using the top two predictive variables, age and caregiver reported bloody diarrhea. We show that by using our CPR to triage who receives diagnostic testing, 3 times more Shigella diarrhea cases would have been identified compared to current symptom-based guidelines, with only 27% of cases receiving a point-of-care diagnostic test.

Conclusions

We demonstrate how a clinical prediction rule can be used to guide use of a point-of-care diagnostic test for diarrhea management. Using our CPR, available diagnostic capacity can be optimized to improve appropriate antibiotic use.

Spatiotemporal variation in risk of Shigella infection in childhood: a global risk mapping and prediction model using individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum.

FINDINGS

20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]).

INTERPRETATION

The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns.

FUNDING

NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of Biannual Azithromycin to Children under 5 Years on the Carriage of Respiratory Pathogens among Children Aged 7-11 Years

In the MORDOR I trial, children under 5 years of age were randomized to receive biannual (every 6 months) azithromycin for 2 years in Niger, Malawi, and Tanzania. In 30 Nigerien communities, children aged 7-11 years, who were not enrolled in the MORDOR I trial to receive biannual azithromycin, were assessed for carriage of seven respiratory pathogens. We aimed to see whether there were effects on the carriage of these seven respiratory pathogens among 3,187 children aged 7-11 years living in the 30 communities via nasopharyngeal swabs collected at baseline (N = 1,066), as well as at year 1 (N = 1,019) and year 2 (N = 1,102)-each about 6 months after azithromycin or placebo treatment of children under age five. Most children were positive for Haemophilus influenzae (baseline: 83.8%; interquartile range [IQR]: 78.7-90.4) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (baseline: 82.9%; IQR: 74.2-86.8) at all time points regardless of treatment group. There were no differences in prevalence nor quantity of H. influenzae (prevalence ratio: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.02), S. pneumoniae (prevalence ratio: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.07), or any of the other respiratory pathogens in the treatment versus control groups at any time point. S. pneumoniae serotype 6AB (7.7%) and Neisseria meningitidis serotype W135 (24.9%) were the most prevalent serotypes detected among all positive S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis samples, respectively. Biannual azithromycin did not reduce carriage of respiratory pathogens 6 months after the most recent round of biannual azithromycin among older nontreated children (aged 7-11 years) living in treatment communities.

Derivation and external validation of clinical prediction rules identifying children at risk of linear growth faltering

Background

Nearly 150 million children under-5 years of age were stunted in 2020. We aimed to develop a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to identify children likely to experience additional stunting following acute diarrhea, to enable targeted approaches to prevent this irreversible outcome.

Methods

We used clinical and demographic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to build predictive models of linear growth faltering (decrease of ≥0.5 or ≥1.0 in height-for-age z-score [HAZ] at 60-day follow-up) in children ≤59 months presenting with moderate-to-severe diarrhea, and community controls, in Africa and Asia. We screened variables using random forests, and assessed predictive performance with random forest regression and logistic regression using fivefold cross-validation. We used the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study to (1) re-derive, and (2) externally validate our GEMS-derived CPR.

Results

Of 7639 children in GEMS, 1744 (22.8%) experienced severe growth faltering (≥0.5 decrease in HAZ). In MAL-ED, we analyzed 5683 diarrhea episodes from 1322 children, of which 961 (16.9%) episodes experienced severe growth faltering. Top predictors of growth faltering in GEMS were: age, HAZ at enrollment, respiratory rate, temperature, and number of people living in the household. The maximum area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75, 0.75) with 20 predictors, while 2 predictors yielded an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.72). Results were similar in the MAL-ED re-derivation. A 2-variable CPR derived from children 0-23 months in GEMS had an AUC = 0.63 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.65), and AUC = 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74) when externally validated in MAL-ED.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that use of prediction rules could help identify children at risk of poor outcomes after an episode of diarrheal illness. They may also be generalizable to all children, regardless of diarrhea status.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health under Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award NIH T32AI055434 and by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI135114).

Frequency of bystander exposure to antibiotics for enteropathogenic bacteria among young children in low-resource settings

Children in low-resource settings carry enteric pathogens asymptomatically and are frequently treated with antibiotics, resulting in opportunities for pathogens to be exposed to antibiotics when not the target of treatment (i.e., bystander exposure). We quantified the frequency of bystander antibiotic exposures for enteric pathogens and estimated associations with resistance among children in eight low-resource settings. We analyzed 15,697 antibiotic courses from 1,715 children aged 0 to 2 y from the MAL-ED birth cohort. We calculated the incidence of bystander exposures and attributed exposures to respiratory and diarrheal illnesses. We associated bystander exposure with phenotypic susceptibility of E. coli isolates in the 30 d following exposure and at the level of the study site. There were 744.1 subclinical pathogen exposures to antibiotics per 100 child-years. Enteroaggregative Escherichia coli was the most frequently exposed pathogen, with 229.6 exposures per 100 child-years. Almost all antibiotic exposures for Campylobacter (98.8%), enterotoxigenic E. coli (95.6%), and typical enteropathogenic E. coli (99.4%), and the majority for Shigella (77.6%), occurred when the pathogens were not the target of treatment. Respiratory infections accounted for half (49.9%) and diarrheal illnesses accounted for one-fourth (24.6%) of subclinical enteric bacteria exposures to antibiotics. Bystander exposure of E. coli to class-specific antibiotics was associated with the prevalence of phenotypic resistance at the community level. Antimicrobial stewardship and illness-prevention interventions among children in low-resource settings would have a large ancillary benefit of reducing bystander selection that may contribute to antimicrobial resistance.

Aetiology and incidence of diarrhoea requiring hospitalisation in children under 5 years of age in 28 low-income and middle-income countries: findings from the Global Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance network

INTRODUCTION

Diarrhoea remains a leading cause of child morbidity and mortality. Systematically collected and analysed data on the aetiology of hospitalised diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries are needed to prioritise interventions.

METHODS

We established the Global Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance network, in which children under 5 years hospitalised with diarrhoea were enrolled at 33 sentinel surveillance hospitals in 28 low-income and middle-income countries. Randomly selected stool specimens were tested by quantitative PCR for 16 causes of diarrhoea. We estimated pathogen-specific attributable burdens of diarrhoeal hospitalisations and deaths. We incorporated country-level incidence to estimate the number of pathogen-specific deaths on a global scale.

RESULTS

During 2017-2018, 29 502 diarrhoea hospitalisations were enrolled, of which 5465 were randomly selected and tested. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea requiring hospitalisation (attributable fraction (AF) 33.3%; 95% CI 27.7 to 40.3), followed by Shigella (9.7%; 95% CI 7.7 to 11.6), norovirus (6.5%; 95% CI 5.4 to 7.6) and adenovirus 40/41 (5.5%; 95% CI 4.4 to 6.7). Rotavirus was the leading cause of hospitalised diarrhoea in all regions except the Americas, where the leading aetiologies were Shigella (19.2%; 95% CI 11.4 to 28.1) and norovirus (22.2%; 95% CI 17.5 to 27.9) in Central and South America, respectively. The proportion of hospitalisations attributable to rotavirus was approximately 50% lower in sites that had introduced rotavirus vaccine (AF 20.8%; 95% CI 18.0 to 24.1) compared with sites that had not (42.1%; 95% CI 33.2 to 53.4). Globally, we estimated 208 009 annual rotavirus-attributable deaths (95% CI 169 561 to 259 216), 62 853 Shigella-attributable deaths (95% CI 48 656 to 78 805), 36 922 adenovirus 40/41-attributable deaths (95% CI 28 469 to 46 672) and 35 914 norovirus-attributable deaths (95% CI 27 258 to 46 516).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the substantial impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction, rotavirus remained the leading cause of paediatric diarrhoea hospitalisations. Improving the efficacy and coverage of rotavirus vaccination and prioritising interventions against Shigella, norovirus and adenovirus could further reduce diarrhoea morbidity and mortality.

Weather variables as important clinical predictors of bacterial diarrhoea among international travellers

BACKGROUND

Clinicians and travellers often have limited tools to differentiate bacterial from non-bacterial causes of travellers' diarrhoea (TD). Development of a clinical prediction rule assessing the aetiology of TD may help identify episodes of bacterial diarrhoea and limit inappropriate antibiotic use. We aimed to identify predictors of bacterial diarrhoea among clinical, demographic and weather variables, as well as to develop and cross-validate a parsimonious predictive model.

METHODS

We collected de-identified clinical data from 457 international travellers with acute diarrhoea presenting to two healthcare centres in Nepal and Thailand. We used conventional microbiologic and multiplex molecular methods to identify diarrheal aetiology from stool samples. We used random forest and logistic regression to determine predictors of bacterial diarrhoea.

RESULTS

We identified 195 cases of bacterial aetiology, 63 viral, 125 mixed pathogens, 6 protozoal/parasite and 68 cases without a detected pathogen. Random forest regression indicated that the strongest predictors of bacterial over viral or non-detected aetiologies were average location-specific environmental temperature and red blood cell on stool microscopy. In 5-fold cross-validation, the parsimonious model with the highest discriminative performance had an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.73 using 3 variables with calibration intercept -0.01 (standard deviation, SD 0.31) and slope 0.95 (SD 0.36).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified environmental temperature, a location-specific parameter, as an important predictor of bacterial TD, among traditional patient-specific parameters predictive of aetiology. Future work includes further validation and the development of a clinical decision-support tool to inform appropriate use of antibiotics in TD.

Burden, clinical characteristics, risk factors, and seasonality of adenovirus 40/41 diarrhea in children in eight low-resource settings

Background

The application of molecular diagnostics has identified enteric group adenovirus serotypes 40 and 41 as important causes of diarrhea in children. However, many aspects of the epidemiology of adenovirus 40/41 diarrhea have not been described.

Methods

We used data from the 8-site Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development Project birth cohort study to describe site- and age-specific incidence, risk factors, clinical characteristics, and seasonality.

Results

The incidence of adenovirus 40/41 diarrhea was substantially higher by quantitative polymerase chain reaction than enzyme immunoassay and peaked at ∼30 episodes per 100 child-years in children aged 7–15 months, with substantial variation in incidence between sites. A significant burden was also seen in children 0–6 months of age, higher than other viral etiologies with the exception of rotavirus. Children with adenovirus 40/41 diarrhea were more likely to have a fever than children with norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.62; 95% CI, 1.16–2.26) but less likely than children with rotavirus (aOR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.49–0.91). Exclusive breastfeeding was strongly protective against adenovirus 40/41 diarrhea (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48–0.85), but no other risk factors were identified. The seasonality of adenovirus 40/41 diarrhea varied substantially between sites and did not have clear associations with seasonal variations in temperature or rainfall.

Conclusions

This study supports the situation of adenovirus 40/41 as a pathogen of substantial importance, especially in infants. Fever was a distinguishing characteristic in comparison to other nonrotavirus viral etiologies, and promotion of exclusive breastfeeding may reduce the high observed burden in the first 6 months of life.

Antibiotic use attributable to specific aetiologies of diarrhoea in children under 2 years of age in low-resource settings: a secondary analysis of the MAL-ED birth cohort

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the frequency of antibiotic treatments attributable to specific enteric pathogens due to the treatment of diarrhoea among children in the first 2 years of life in low-resource settings.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a longitudinal birth cohort study, Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED).

SETTING

This study was conducted at eight sites in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Peru, Pakistan, South Africa and Tanzania.

PARTICIPANTS

We analysed 9392 reported diarrhoea episodes, including 6677 with molecular diagnostic test results, as well as 31 408 non-diarrhoeal stools from 1715 children aged 0-2 years with 2 years of complete follow-up data.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We estimated incidence rates and the proportions of antibiotic use for diarrhoea and for all indications attributable to the top 10 aetiologies of diarrhoea. We estimated associations between specific aetiologies and antibiotic treatment, and assessed whether clinical characteristics of the diarrhoea episodes mediated these relationships.

RESULTS

Shigella and rotavirus were the leading causes of antibiotic treatment, responsible for 11.7% and 8.6% of diarrhoea treatments and 14.8 and 10.9 courses per 100 child-years, respectively. Shigella and rotavirus-attributable diarrhoea episodes were 46% (RR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.33 to 1.60), and 19% (RR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.31) more likely to be treated with antibiotics, respectively, compared with other aetiologies. Considering antibiotic uses for all indications, these two pathogens accounted for 5.6% of all antibiotic courses, 19.3% of all fluoroquinolone courses and 9.5% of all macrolide courses. Among indicated treatments for dysentery, Shigella and Campylobacter jenjui/Campylobacter coli were responsible for 27.5% and 8.5% of treated episodes, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence that Shigella and rotavirus were disproportionately responsible for antibiotic use due to their high burden and severity further strengthens the value of interventions targeted to these pathogens. Interventions against Campylobacter could further prevent a large burden of indicated antibiotic treatment for dysentery, which could not be averted by antibiotic stewardship interventions.

Pivotal Shigella Vaccine Efficacy Trials-Study Design Considerations from a Shigella Vaccine Trial Design Working Group

Vaccine candidates for Shigella are approaching phase 3 clinical trials in the target population of young children living in low- and middle-income countries. Key study design decisions will need to be made to maximize the success of such trials and minimize the time to licensure and implementation. We convened an ad hoc working group to identify the key aspects of trial design that would meet the regulatory requirements to achieve the desired indication of prevention of moderate or severe shigellosis due to strains included in the vaccine. The proposed primary endpoint of pivotal Shigella vaccine trials is the efficacy of the vaccine against the first episode of acute moderate or severe diarrhea caused by the Shigella strains contained within the vaccine. Moderate or severe shigellosis could be defined by a modified Vesikari score with dysentery and molecular detection of vaccine-preventable Shigella strains. This report summarizes the rationale and current data behind these considerations, which will evolve as new data become available and after further review and consultation by global regulators and policymakers.

External validation of a mobile clinical decision support system for diarrhea etiology prediction in children: a multicenter study in Bangladesh and Mali

Background: Diarrheal illness is a leading cause of antibiotic use for children in low- and middle-income countries. Determination of diarrhea etiology at the point-of-care without reliance on laboratory testing has the potential to reduce inappropriate antibiotic use.

Methods: This prospective observational study aimed to develop and externally validate the accuracy of a mobile software application ('App') for the prediction of viral-only etiology of acute diarrhea in children 0-59 months in Bangladesh and Mali. The App used a previously derived and internally validated model consisting of patient-specific ('present patient') clinical variables (age, blood in stool, vomiting, breastfeeding status, and mid-upper arm circumference) as well as location-specific viral diarrhea seasonality curves. The performance of additional models using the 'present patient' data combined with other external data sources including location-specific climate, data, recent patient data, and historical population-based prevalence were also evaluated in secondary analysis. Diarrhea etiology was determined with TaqMan Array Card using episode-specific attributable fraction (AFe) >0.5.

Results: Of 302 children with acute diarrhea enrolled, 199 had etiologies above the AFe threshold. Viral-only pathogens were detected in 22% of patients in Mali and 63% in Bangladesh. Rotavirus was the most common pathogen detected (16% Mali; 60% Bangladesh). The present patient + viral seasonality model had an AUC of 0.754 (0.665-0.843) for the sites combined, with calibration-in-the-large α=-0.393 (-0.455 - -0.331) and calibration slope β=1.287 (1.207 - 1.367). By site, the present patient + recent patient model performed best in Mali with an AUC of 0.783 (0.705 - 0.86); the present patient + viral seasonality model performed best in Bangladesh with AUC 0.710 (0.595 - 0.825).

Conclusion: The App accurately identified children with high likelihood of viral-only diarrhea etiology. Further studies to evaluate the App's potential use in diagnostic and antimicrobial stewardship are underway.

Funding: Funding for this study was provided through grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1198876) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI135114). Several investigators were also partially supported by a grant from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (R01DK116163). This investigation was also supported by the University of Utah Population Health Research (PHR) Foundation, with funding in part from the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number UL1TR002538. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation of data, or in the writing or decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Clostridioides difficile colonisation among very young children in resource-limited settings

Objectives

To describe the epidemiology and risk factors for Clostridioides difficile (C. difficile) colonization among young children in eight low-resource settings.

Methods

We tested 41 354 monthly non-diarrhoeal and diarrhoeal stools for C. difficile toxin genes (TcdA and TcdB) using quantitative PCR (qPCR) in 1715 children from birth to age two years in a multisite birth cohort study. We estimated the prevalence, cumulative incidence, and seasonality of C. difficile colonization and investigated the associations of C. difficile detection with risk factors of infection, markers of enteropathy, and growth.

Results

The prevalence of C. difficile detection was lower in diarrhoeal (2.2%; n = 151/6731) compared to non-diarrhoeal stools (6.1%; n = 2106/34 623). By 24 months of age, the cumulative incidence of C. difficile varied widely by site, with 17.9% (n = 44; Pakistan) to 76.3% (n = 148; Peru) of children having at least one positive stool. Only Bangladesh and Pakistan had seasonal differences in C. difficile detection. Female sex (adjusted risk ratio (aRR): 1.18; 95% CI: 1.02–1.35), cephalosporin use in the past 15 days (aRR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.39–2.16), and treated water (aRR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.02–1.50) were risk factors for C. difficile positivity. The presence of C. difficile was significantly associated with elevated faecal myeloperoxidase, neopterin, and α-1-antitrypsin, but no associations were found between C. difficile and child growth at 24 months of age.

Discussion

C. difficile colonization among children ages 0–2 years was variable across low-resource settings. Significant elevation of intestinal inflammation and barrier disruption markers associated with C. difficile detection suggests a subclinical impact of colonization.

Sex Differences in Early Childhood Growth in a Resource-Limited Setting: A Secondary Analysis of the Early Life Interventions in Childhood Growth and Development in Tanzania (ELICIT) Study

BACKGROUND

In population-based growth surveys in sub-Saharan Africa, boys have higher rates of growth failure than girls.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to assess for the presence, timing, and potential etiology of sex-based differences in length-for-age z score (LAZ), weight-for-age z score (WAZ), and head circumference-for-age z score (HCZ) in a birth cohort in rural Tanzania.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of randomized controlled trial data on 1084 children followed from age <2 wk to 18 mo, assessing anthropometry (measured every 3 mo), illness (hospitalization and monthly maternal report of symptoms), and feeding [monthly maternal report of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and complementary solids and liquids (CSLs)]. We used linear regression to assess sex differences in LAZ, WAZ, and HCZ over time.

RESULTS

Although male and female infants had similar anthropometry measures at study entry, males exhibited poorer growth through 6 mo (e.g., 3-mo mean LAZ: males -0.94, females -0.74, P < 0.01; 3-mo mean WAZ: males -0.63, females -0.48, P < 0.05), without significant worsening from 6 to 18 mo. Males had lower HCZ only at 9 mo. In evaluating possible etiologies, mediation analysis failed to identify illness or hospitalization as mediators of poorer growth among males, although at age 3 mo, males with recently reported illness exhibited greater decline in WAZ than females with illness (ΔWAZ: males -0.24, females 0.03, heterogeneity test P = 0.01). Differences in EBF and introduction of CSL did not explain the sex-based growth outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In longitudinal analysis, males exhibited more severe growth failure by 3 mo than girls and did not exhibit catchup growth between 6 and 18 mo. Reported symptoms of illness and early introduction of CSL did not appear to be mediators of these sex-based differences, although likely not all sickness was captured by monthly maternal report. Given the early nature of these deficits, LAZ and WAZ measures at 6 mo may be good outcomes for intervention studies targeting improvements in early childhood growth and thriving.

Use of Molecular Methods To Detect Shigella and Infer Phenotypic Resistance in a Shigella Treatment Study

Molecular diagnostic methods improve the detection of Shigella, yet their ability to detect Shigella drug resistance on direct stool specimens is less clear. We tested 673 stool specimens from a Shigella treatment study in Bangladesh, including 154 culture-positive stool specimens and their paired Shigella isolates. We utilized a TaqMan array card that included quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays for 24 enteropathogens and 36 antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes. Shigella was detected by culture in 23% of stool specimens (154/673), while qPCR detected Shigella at diarrhea-associated quantities in 49% (329/673; P < 0.05). qPCR for AMR genes on the Shigella isolates yielded >94% sensitivity and specificity compared with the phenotypic susceptibility results for azithromycin and ampicillin. The performance for trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole susceptibility was less robust, and the assessment of ciprofloxacin was limited because most isolates were resistant. The detection of AMR genes in direct stool specimens generally yielded low specificities for predicting the resistance of the paired isolate, whereas the sensitivity and negative predictive values for predicting susceptibility were often higher. For example, the detection of ermB or mphA in stool yielded a specificity of 56% but a sensitivity of 91% and a negative predictive value of 91% versus the paired isolate's azithromycin resistance result. Patients who received azithromycin prior to presentation were universally culture negative (0/112); however, qPCR still detected Shigella at diarrhea-associated quantities in 34/112 (30%). In sum, molecular diagnostics on direct stool specimens greatly increase the diagnostic yield for Shigella, including in the setting of prior antibiotics. The molecular detection of drug resistance genes in direct stool specimens had low specificity for confirming resistance but could potentially "rule out" macrolide resistance.

Impact of biannual mass azithromycin treatment on enteropathogen carriage in children younger than 5 years in Niger

We analyzed samples obtained at baseline and 24 months in a mass azithromycin administration trial in Niger using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. In villages randomized to azithromycin, Shigella was the only pathogen reduced at 24 months (prevalence ratio, 0.36 [95% confidence interval: .17–.79]; difference in log quantity, −.42 [−.75 to −.10]).

Intestinal Colonization With Bifidobacterium longum Subspecies Is Associated With Length at Birth, Exclusive Breastfeeding, and Decreased Risk of Enteric Virus Infections, but Not With Histo-Blood Group Antigens, Oral Vaccine Response or Later Growth in Three Birth Cohorts

Bifidobacterium longum subspecies detected in infant stool have been associated with numerous subsequent health outcomes and are potential early markers of deviation from healthy developmental trajectories. This analysis derived indicators of carriage and early colonization with B. infantis and B. longum and quantified their associations with a panel of early-life exposures and outcomes. In a sub-study nested within a multi-site birth cohort, extant stool samples from infants in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Tanzania were tested for presence and quantity of two Bifidobacterium longum subspecies. The results were matched to indicators of nutritional status, enteropathogen infection, histo-blood group antigens, vaccine response and feeding status and regression models were fitted to test for associations while adjusting for covariates. B. infantis was associated with lower quantity of and decreased odds of colonization with B. longum, and vice versa. Length at birth was associated with a 0.36 increase in log₁₀ B. infantis and a 0.28 decrease in B. longum quantity at 1 month of age. B. infantis colonization was associated with fewer viral infections and small reductions in the risk of rotavirus and sapovirus infections, but not reduced overall diarrheal disease risk. No associations with vaccine responses, HBGAs or later nutritional status were identified. Suboptimal intrauterine growth and a shorter duration of exclusive breastfeeding may predispose infants to early intestinal colonization with the B. longum subspecies at the expense of B. infantis, thus denying them potential benefits of reduced enteric virus episodes.

World Health Organization Expert Working Group: Recommendations for assessing morbidity associated with enteric pathogens

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoeal infections are one of the leading causes of child's mortality and morbidity. Vaccines against Shigella, enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), norovirus and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella are in clinical development, however, their full value in terms of short and long-term health and socio-economic burden needs to be evaluated and communicated, to rationalise investment in vaccine development, and deployment. While estimates of mortality of enteric infections exist, the long-term morbidity estimates are scarce and have not been systematically collected.

METHODS

The World Health Organization (WHO) has convened a Burden of Enteric Diseases Morbidity Working Group (BoED MWG) who identified key workstreams needed to characterise the morbidity burden of enteric infections. The group also identified four criteria for the prioritisation of pathogens of which impact on long-term morbidity needs to be assessed.

RESULTS

The BoED MWG suggested to identify and analyse the individual level data from historical datasets to estimate the impact of enteric infections and confounders on long-term morbidity, including growth faltering and cognitive impairment in children (workstream 1); to conduct a systematic review of evidence on the association of aetiology specific diarrhoea with short- and long- term impact on growth, including stunting, and possibly cognitive impairment in children, while accounting for potential confounders (workstream 2); and to conduct a systematic review of evidence on the association of aetiology specific diarrhoea with short- and long- term impact on health outcomes in adults. The experts prioritised four pathogens for this work: Campylobacter jejuni, ETEC (LT or ST), norovirus (G1 or G2), and Shigella (dysenteriae, flexneri, sonnei).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed work will contribute to improving the understanding of the impact of enteric pathogens on long-term morbidity. The timing of this work is critical as all four pathogens have vaccine candidates in the clinical pipeline and decisions about investments in development, manufacturing or vaccine procurement and use are expected to be made soon.

190. Outcomes of Early Ceftaroline-based Combination Therapy for Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia

Background

Monotherapy with vancomycin (VAN) or daptomycin (DAP) remains the guideline-driven standard of care for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (MRSA-B) despite concerns regarding efficacy. While combination therapy is often utilized as salvage treatment for persistent MRSA-B, growing data suggest a potential benefit of combination therapy with ceftaroline as initial therapy for MRSA-B. In light of these data, we updated practice guidance at our institution for management of MRSA-B in March 2020 to favor initial combination therapy with ceftaroline. Herein, we present an assessment of outcomes of patients with MRSA-B initiated on early combination therapy.

Methods

This was a single-center, retrospective, cohort study of adult patients admitted to the University of Virginia with MRSA-B between July 1, 2018 and February 28, 2021. Patients were considered to have received combination therapy if they received VAN or DAP plus ceftaroline (CPT) within 5 days of index blood culture, and monotherapy if during that period they received VAN and/or DAP alone. The primary outcome was a composite of persistent bacteremia, 30-day all-cause mortality, and 30-day bacteremia recurrence. Time to microbiological cure and safety outcomes were also assessed. A propensity score-weighted logistic regression was conducted. A post-hoc analysis of the primary composite outcome was performed in which patients were only deemed to have received combination therapy if it was started within 72 hours.

Results

Of 94 patients included, 57 received monotherapy (55 VAN, 2 DAP) and 37 received combination therapy with CPT (30 VAN, 7 DAP). There was no difference between groups for the primary composite outcome in the primary analysis (OR 2.7, 95% CI 0.95-7.72) or the post-hoc analysis (OR 2.37, 95% CI 0.68-8.22). Time to microbiological cure was not different between groups (mean difference 1.47, 95% CI 0.20-2.74). Safety outcomes were similar.

Conclusion

In this retrospective study, there was no clear benefit or harm of early initiation of combination therapy for MRSA-B. Additional study of initial combination therapy with ceftaroline is warranted given the small number of subjects in the study presented.

Disclosures

All Authors: No reported disclosures

Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission

Since the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. Here, we generated an agent-based, mechanistic model designed to assess OPV-related vaccine virus transmission risk in populations with heterogeneous immunity, demography, and social mixing patterns. To showcase the utility of our model, we present a simulation of mOPV2-related Sabin 2 transmission in rural Matlab, Bangladesh based on stool samples collected from infants and their household contacts during an mOPV2 clinical trial. Sabin 2 transmission following the mOPV2 clinical trial was replicated by specifying multiple, heterogeneous contact rates based on household and community membership. Once calibrated, the model generated Matlab-specific insights regarding poliovirus transmission following an accidental point importation or mass vaccination event. We also show that assuming homogeneous contact rates (mass action), as is common of poliovirus forecast models, does not accurately represent the clinical trial and risks overestimating forecasted poliovirus outbreak probability. Our study identifies household and community structure as an important source of transmission heterogeneity when assessing OPV-related transmission risk and provides a calibratable framework for expanding these analyses to other populations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02477046.

Shigellosis in young children in low-income and middle-income countries: insights from molecular diagnostics

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To describe the impact of molecular diagnostics on our understanding of the burden and epidemiology of shigellosis in children in low-income and middle-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

The incorporation of molecular diagnostics has led to a substantial increase in estimates of the burden of shigellosis and have allowed for further resolution of other aspects of Shigella epidemiology, including the clinical characteristics of shigellosis, the association between clinical and subclinical Shigella infection and linear growth shortfalls, protection after natural infection, duration of convalescent shedding, and host determinants of susceptibility.

SUMMARY

The increased sensitivity and precision afforded by molecular approaches has represented a major advance in our understanding of the epidemiology and burden of shigellosis in the settings of highest importance.

Association of enteropathogen detection with diarrhoea by age and high versus low child mortality settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The odds ratio (OR) comparing pathogen presence in diarrhoeal cases versus asymptomatic controls is a measure for diarrhoeal disease cause that has been integrated into burden of disease estimates across diverse populations. This study aimed to estimate the OR describing the association between pathogen detection in stool and diarrhoea for 15 common enteropathogens by age group and child mortality setting.

METHODS

We did a systematic review to identify case-control and cohort studies published from Jan 1, 1990, to July 9, 2019, which examined at least one enteropathogen of interest and the outcome diarrhoea. The analytical dataset included data extracted from published articles and supplemented with data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study and the Malnutrition and Enteric Disease study. Random effects meta-analysis models were fit for each enteropathogen, stratified by age group and child mortality level, and adjusted for pathogen detection method and study design to produce summary ORs describing the association between pathogen detection in stool and diarrhoea.

FINDINGS

1964 records were screened and 130 studies (over 88 079 cases or diarrhoea samples and 135 755 controls or non-diarrhoea samples) were available for analysis. Heterogeneity (I2) in unadjusted models was substantial, ranging from 27·6% to 86·6% across pathogens. In stratified and adjusted models, summary ORs varied by age group and setting, ranging from 0·4 (95% CI 0·2-0·6) for Giardia lamblia to 54·1 (95% CI 7·4-393·5) for Vibrio cholerae.

INTERPRETATION

Incorporating effect estimates from diverse data sources into diarrhoeal disease cause and burden of disease models is needed to produce more representative estimates.

FUNDING

WHO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institutes of Health.