Cost-effectiveness of noninvasive liver fibrosis tests for treatment decisions in patients with chronic hepatitis B in the UK: systematic review and economic evaluation

We compared the cost-effectiveness of various noninvasive tests (NITs) in patients with chronic hepatitis B and elevated transaminases and/or viral load who would normally undergo liver biopsy to inform treatment decisions. We searched various databases until April 2012. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to calculate the diagnostic accuracy of various NITs using a bivariate random-effects model. We constructed a probabilistic decision analytical model to estimate health care costs and outcomes quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) using data from the meta-analysis, literature, and national UK data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of four decision-making strategies: testing with NITs and treating patients with fibrosis stage ≥F2, testing with liver biopsy and treating patients with ≥F2, treat none (watchful waiting) and treat all irrespective of fibrosis. Treating all patients without prior fibrosis assessment had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £28,137 per additional QALY gained for HBeAg-negative patients. For HBeAg-positive patients, using Fibroscan was the most cost-effective option with an ICER of £23,345. The base case results remained robust in the majority of sensitivity analyses, but were sensitive to changes in the ≥ F2 prevalence and the benefit of treatment in patients with F0-F1. For HBeAg-negative patients, strategies excluding NITs were the most cost-effective: treating all patients regardless of fibrosis level if the high cost-effectiveness threshold of £30,000 is accepted; watchful waiting if not. For HBeAg-positive patients, using Fibroscan to identify and treat those with ≥F2 was the most cost-effective option.

Maximal stomatal conductance to water and plasticity in stomatal traits differ between native and invasive introduced lineages of Phragmites australis in North America

The fitness costs of reproduction by clonal growth can include a limited ability to adapt to environmental and temporal heterogeneity. Paradoxically, some facultatively clonal species are not only able to survive, but colonize, thrive and expand in heterogeneous environments. This is likely due to the capacity for acclimation (sensu stricto) that compensates for the fitness costs and complements the ecological advantages of clonality. Introduced Phragmites australis demonstrates great phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature, nutrient availability, geographic gradient, water depths, habitat fertility, atmospheric CO2, interspecific competition and intraspecific competition for light. However, no in situ comparative subspecies studies have explored the difference in plasticity between the non-invasive native lineage and the highly invasive introduced lineage. Clonality of the native and introduced lineages makes it possible to control for genetic variation, making P. australis a unique system for the comparative study of plasticity. Using previously identified clonal genotypes, we investigated differences in their phenotypic plasticity through measurements of the lengths and densities of stomata on both the abaxial (lower) and adaxial (upper) surfaces of leaves, and synthesized these measurements to estimate impacts on maximum stomatal conductance to water (gwmax). Results demonstrated that at three marsh sites, invasive lineages have consistently greater gwmax than their native congeners, as a result of greater stomatal densities and smaller stomata. Our analysis also suggests that phenotypic plasticity, determined as within-genotype variation in gwmax, of the invasive lineage is similar to, or exceeds, that shown by the native lineage.

A Dickensian origin for Sherrington's enchanted loom?

Sherrington's image of the mind-brain as an ‘enchanted loom’ has intrigued scientists for decades. Its origin, however, has been unclear. Here, we make a new suggestion as to where it may have come from. The article sheds light on the connections between literary and scientific similes and metaphors.

A prospective survey of blood products transferred with patients during inter-hospital transfers in the East of England

OBJECTIVES

A prospective survey was undertaken of blood products transferred with patients during inter-hospital transfers by ambulance in the East of England (population six million)

BACKGROUND

There is little published information on the number and fate of blood products transferred with patients during inter-hospital transfers, although there are concerns about quality assurance and traceability of these blood products. Recent national guidance has been issued, but adherence to this guidance is uncertain.

METHODS

A 6-month survey was undertaken of all inter-hospital transfers of blood products with patients within the East of England using routine data captured by established transfer of blood documentation.

RESULTS

There were 45 transfer episodes of which 44 involved the transfer of red blood cells. In total, 148 units of red blood cells were transferred, of which 6% were transfused en route, 3% transfused at the destination hospital, 35% were wasted and for 18% the fate could not be established. The remainder were transferred into the blood stock of the destination hospital.

CONCLUSION

The small proportion of blood products that were transfused raises questions about the necessity of the transfer of blood products with some patients particularly considering the higher percentage of wasted or untraced products. When transfers occur, there should be better communication between hospital transfusion laboratories assisted by adherence to national and regionally agreed policies.

Prevalence and Risk Profile Of Unread Messages To Patients In A Patient Web Portal

BACKGROUND

Excitement around the adoption of electronic communication between physicians and patients is tempered by the possibility of increased clinical and legal risk. If patients do not read messages in a timely fashion, duplicative communication efforts may be required and patient safety may be jeopardized.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to assess the prevalence and risk profile of unread messages in a mature patient portal.

METHODS

We analyzed six years of messages (2005-2010) from physicians to patients to determine the prevalence and associated characteristics of unread messages in a patient portal. We focused on clinical messages, and excluded announcements. Because some physicians sent clinical messages to groups of patients, we labeled messages sent to more than 5 patients as "outreach" messages and excluded them from general analyses. We performed a chart review of 75 clinical messages to assess for harm.

RESULTS

We found that 3% of clinical messages were unread after 21 days. Messages arriving outside of business hours were slightly more likely to go unread (RR 1.15 95% CI 1.11-1.19). Patients who were male (OR 1.14 CI 1.04-1.26) African American (OR 1.69 CI 1.29-2.22) or Hispanic (OR 1.74 CI 1.17-2.59), or in the lowest income group (OR 1.72 CI 1.19-2.49) were more likely to have unread messages. Chart review showed no evidence of harm, but 13% of sampled unread messages were associated with potential delays in care. Incidentally, we found 50% of the physician-initiated outreach messages were unread.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, secure messaging appears a safe form of communication, but systems to notify senders when messages are unread may have value. While most clinical messages were read, many outreach messages were not, providing caution for relying on such systems for information dissemination. Similar to other studies, differences by race and income were observed and require further study.

The perspectives of adults with venous leg ulcers on exercise: an exploratory study

OBJECTIVE

Exercise has the potential to offer a range of health benefits in addition to improving healing outcomes for people with venous leg ulcers (VLUs). However, despite evidence-based recommendations, most of these individuals do not engage in regular exercise. The aim of this study was to gain an understanding of the perspectives of adults with VLUs, in relation to exercise.

METHOD

This was a qualitative design using semi-structured interviews and discussions. Ten participants with venous leg ulceration volunteered to participate. Recruitment was through a specialist wound clinic. Verbatim data were collected by an experienced moderator using a semi-structured guide. Data saturation was reached after three group discussions and two interviews. A random selection of transcripts was sent back to the participants for verification. Thematic content analysis was used to determine major themes and categories. Two transcripts were independently analysed, categories and themes independently developed, cross checked and found comparable. Remaining transcripts were analysed using the developed categories and codes.

RESULTS

Regardless of their current exercise routine, participants reported exercising before venous leg ulceration and expressed an interest in either becoming active or maintaining an active lifestyle. Overall, four themes emerged from the findings: i) participant understanding of the relationship between chronic venous insufficiency and exercise patterns; ii) fear of harm impacts upon positive beliefs and attitudes to exercise; iii) perceived factors limit exercise; and iv) structured management facilitates exercise.

CONCLUSION

The value of exercise in improving outcomes in VLUs lies in its capacity to promote venous return and reduce the risk of secondary conditions in this population. Despite motivation and interest in being exercise active, people with VLUs report many obstacles. Further exploration of mechanisms that assist this patient population and promote understanding about management of barriers, coupled with promotion of enabling factors, is vital for improving their exercise participation.

Long-term intake of nuts in relation to cognitive function in older women

OBJECTIVE

Nuts contain nutrients that may benefit brain health; thus, we examined long-term intake of nuts in relation to cognition in older women.

DESIGN

Population-based prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Academic research using data from the Nurses' Health Study.

PARTICIPANTS

Nut intake was assessed in a food-frequency questionnaire beginning in1980, and approximately every four years thereafter. Between 1995-2001, 16,010 women age 70 or older (mean age = 74 years) without a history of stroke were administered 4 repeated telephone-based cognitive interviews over 6 years. Our final sample included 15,467 women who completed an initial cognitive interview and had complete information on nut intake.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS), a global score averaging the results of all tests (TICS, immediate and delayed verbal recall, category fluency, and attention), and a verbal memory score averaging the results of tests of verbal recall.

RESULTS

In multivariable-adjusted linear regression models, higher long-term total nut intake was associated with better average cognitive status for all cognitive outcomes. For the global composite score combining all tests, women consuming at least 5 servings of nuts/week had higher scores than non-consumers (mean difference=0.08 standard units, 95% confidence interval 0.00-0.15; p-trend=0.003). This mean difference of 0.08 is equivalent to the mean difference we find between women 2 years apart in age. Long-term intake of nuts was not associated with rates of cognitive decline.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher nut intake may be related to better overall cognition at older ages, and could be an easily-modifiable public health intervention.

The Impact of Occupational Therapy on a Child's Playfulness

The constant changing health care system has made it imperative for occupational therapists (OTs) to examine the effectiveness of treatment interventions with children. Few studies exist examining play as the desired outcome of the intervention. Previous studies in occupational therapy (OT) have focused on the motor aspects of play in children (Anderson, Hinojosa & Strauch, 1987; Florey, 1981; Morrison, Bundy, & Fisher, 1991). In these studies, the researchers hypothesize that improving motor skills will improve play skills in children. OTs frequently evaluate play using the Preschool Play Scale (PPS) (Bledsoe & Shephard, 1982; Knox, 1997) which provides a developmental age for play skills. Therapists also use developmental assessments designed to examine the skills used during play (Bundy, 1991). Skills used in play are important but fail to look at a child's approach or attitude during play. A child's approach to activities of play is termed "playfulness" (Bundy, 1997). The Test of Playfulness (TOP) (Bundy, 1997) was developed to measure this construct. The TOP provides information that can assist therapists working with children in designing measurable playfulness goals. This study examined the playfulness of four children who received OT intervention specifically designed to improve play behaviors in comparison to four children who did not receive this intervention. The results provide therapists with information and insight for treating children with play deficits. This information will help therapists design effective treatment to increase playfulness in children.

Study of the use of antidepressants for depression in dementia: the HTA-SADD trial--a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of sertraline and mirtazapine

OBJECTIVE

Depression is common in dementia, causing considerable distress and other negative impacts. Treating it is a clinical priority, but the evidence base is sparse and equivocal. This trial aimed to determine clinical effectiveness of sertraline and mirtazapine in reducing depression 13 weeks post randomisation compared with placebo.

DESIGN

Multicentre, parallel-group, double-blind placebo-controlled randomised controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness of sertraline and mirtazapine with 13- and 39-week follow-up.

SETTING

Nine English old-age psychiatry services.

PARTICIPANTS

A pragmatic trial. Eligibility: probable or possible Alzheimer's disease (AD), depression (4+ weeks) and Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) score of 8+.

EXCLUSIONS

clinically too critical (e.g. suicide risk); contraindication to medication; taking antidepressants; in another trial; and having no carer.

INTERVENTIONS

(1) Sertraline; (2) mirtazapine; and (3) placebo, all with normal care. Target doses: 150 mg of sertraline or 45 mg of mirtazapine daily.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

OUTCOME

CSDD score. Randomisation: Allocated 1 : 1 : 1 through Trials Unit, independently of trial team. Stratified block randomisation by centre, with randomly varying block sizes; computer-generated randomisation. Blinding: Double blind: medication and placebo identical for each antidepressant. Referring clinicians, research workers, participants and pharmacies were blind. Statisticians blind until analyses completed.

RESULTS

Numbers randomised: 326 participants randomised (111 placebo, 107 sertraline and 108 mirtazapine).

OUTCOME

Differences in CSDD at 13 weeks from an adjusted linear-mixed model: mean difference (95% CI) placebo-sertraline 1.17 (-0.23 to 2.78; p = 0.102); placebo-mirtazapine 0.01 (-1.37 to 1.38; p = 0.991); and mirtazapine-sertraline 1.16 (-0.27 to 2.60; p = 0.112).

HARMS

Placebo group had fewer adverse reactions (29/111, 26%) than sertraline (46/107, 43%) or mirtazapine (44/108, 41%; p = 0.017); 39-week mortality equal, five deaths in each group.

CONCLUSIONS

This is a trial with negative findings but important clinical implications. The data suggest that the antidepressants tested, given with normal care, are not clinically effective (compared with placebo) for clinically significant depression in AD. This implies a need to change current practice of antidepressants being the first-line treatment of depression in AD. From the data generated we formulated the following recommendations for future work. (1) The secondary analyses presented here suggest that there would be value in carrying out a placebo-controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of mirtazapine in the management of Behavioural and Psychological Symptoms of Dementia. (2) A conclusion from this study is that it remains both ethical and essential for trials of new medication for depression in dementia to have a placebo arm. (3) Further research is required to evaluate the impact that treatments for depression in people with dementia can have on their carers not only in terms of any impacts on their quality of life, but also the time they spend care-giving. (4) There is a need for research into alternative biological and psychological therapies for depression in dementia. These could include evaluations of new classes of antidepressants (such as venlafaxine) or antidementia medication (e.g. cholinesterase inhibitors). (5) Research is needed to investigate the natural history of depression in dementia in the community when patients are not referred to secondary care services. (6) Further work is needed to investigate the cost modelling results in this rich data set, investigating carer burden and possible moderators to the treatment effects. (7) There is scope for reanalysis of the primary outcome in terms of carer and participant CSDD results.

Second-trimester diagnosis of triploidy: a series of four cases

Triploidy occurs in 2 to 3% of conceptuses and accounts for approximately 20% of chromosomally abnormal first-trimester miscarriages. As such, triploidy is estimated to occur in 1 of 3,500 pregnancies at 12 weeks', 1 in 30,000 at 16 weeks', and 1 in 250,000 at 20 weeks' gestation. We present a series of four cases of second-trimester triploidy diagnosed at our center within a 1-year timeframe. This is remarkable, as the delivery volume at our institution is roughly 2,500/y. All patients were at least 19 weeks' gestation, with multiple abnormalities identified on prenatal ultrasound at 18 to 20 weeks' gestation; all fetuses had lethal anomalies, but anomalies were not consistent between cases. All patients elected for induction of labor before 24 weeks' gestational age. Two of the four cases had amniocentesis and chromosome analysis prior to delivery, and two cases had chromosome analysis performed on fetal tissue after delivery. All fetuses were examined following delivery. This case series demonstrates that the diagnosis of triploidy may not be obvious based on ultrasound and physical examination findings and highlights the importance of routine chromosome analysis on all prenatal diagnoses of multiple congenital anomalies prior to consideration of more complex genetic testing.

Qutenza patch--our early experience

Qutenza is a high potency capsaicin topical patch which has been recommended for the treatment of peripheral neuropathic pain. The aim of this study was to assess our selected patients' response to Qutenza application. All patients had their dynamic pain score recorded prior to application and were asked to fill in a standardised questionnaire for three months post application. Patients were also asked to document any changes to the character of their pain, changes in sleep, activities of daily living and mood as well as any changes to their medication usage. 21 patients had Qutenza applied in a 5 month period. 17 patients completed the questionnaire in a 5 month period. We found that the mean overall reduction in pain score at 3 months was 32.7%. 8 of our patients (47%) reported improved sleep, activities of daily living and mood. 6 patients (35%) reported a reduction in medication use, while 7 (41%) reported an improvement in the character of their pain.

Novel setting for addressing tobacco-related disparities: a survey of community welfare organization smoking policies, practices and attitudes

Research in the United States and Australia acknowledges the potential of non-government social and community service organizations (SCSOs) for reaching socially disadvantaged smokers. This study aimed to describe SCSO smoking policies and practices, and attitudes of senior staff towards smoking and cessation. It also investigated factors associated with positive tobacco control attitudes. In 2009, a cross-sectional telephone survey was undertaken of senior staff in Australian SCSOs, 149 respondents representing 93 organizations completed the survey (response rate=65%; 93/142). Most service clients (60%) remained in programs for 6 months plus, and 77% attended at least weekly. Although 93% of respondents indicated they had an organizational smoking policy, it often did not include the provision of smoking cessation support. Most respondents indicated that client smoking status was not recorded on case notes (78%). Attitudes were mostly positive towards tobacco control in SCSOs, with a mean (standard deviation) score of 8.3 (2.9) of a possible 13. The practice of assessing clients' interest in quitting was the only statistically significant factor associated with high tobacco control attitude scores. The results suggest that SCSOs are appropriate settings for reaching socially disadvantaged smokers with cessation support. Although generally receptive to tobacco control, organizations require further support to integrate smoking cessation support into usual care. In particular, education, training and support for staff to enable them to help their clients quit smoking is important.

Visual Semiotics & Uncertainty Visualization: An Empirical Study

This paper presents two linked empirical studies focused on uncertainty visualization. The experiments are framed from two conceptual perspectives. First, a typology of uncertainty is used to delineate kinds of uncertainty matched with space, time, and attribute components of data. Second, concepts from visual semiotics are applied to characterize the kind of visual signification that is appropriate for representing those different categories of uncertainty. This framework guided the two experiments reported here. The first addresses representation intuitiveness, considering both visual variables and iconicity of representation. The second addresses relative performance of the most intuitive abstract and iconic representations of uncertainty on a map reading task. Combined results suggest initial guidelines for representing uncertainty and discussion focuses on practical applicability of results.

Frequency of glenoid chondral lesions on MR arthrography in patients with anterior shoulder instability

PURPOSE

To describe the frequency of glenoid chondral abnormalities in relation to Hill Sachs (HS) lesions in MR arthrograms of patients with anterior shoulder instability versus controls. Such glenoid lesions can directly impact surgical decision-making and approach, and potentially negatively impact outcome if missed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of direct MR shoulder arthrograms in 165 subjects, (101 with anterior instability/64 controls) was performed independently by 2 blinded musculoskeletal radiologists. Outcome measures were the presence of a HS, anterior labral pathology and glenoid chondral injury. Kappa statistic, Pearson Chi-square and Mann-Whitney analysis were employed for analysis.

RESULTS

Inter-observer variability for the presence of HS, labral and chondral lesions was 0.964, 0.965 and 0.858 respectively, with intra-observer variability of 1.0, 0.985 and 0.861 for the principle reader. 58% of patients and 8% of controls had HS (p<0.001). 72% of patients and 25% of controls had anterior labral injury (p<0.001). 36% of instability patients and 10% controls had glenoid chondral lesions (p<0.001). 46% of anterior instability patients with HS defects had chondral injury as opposed to 21% of patients without HS defects (p=0.009). Depth of the HS lesion did not increase the likelihood of a glenoid chondral lesion (p=0.7335).

CONCLUSION

In the clinical anterior instability cohort, we demonstrated a statistically significant higher number of HS and glenoid chondral lesions than in controls. In anterior instability patients, the presence of a HS lesion confers a statistically significant greater likelihood of having a glenoid chondral lesion when compared to patients with instability and no HS.

Cost burden of non-specific chest pain admissions

BACKGROUND

Non-cardiac aetiologies are common among patients presenting with chest pain.

AIM

To determine the cost of non-specific chest pain admissions to a tertiary referral, teaching hospital.

METHODS

Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk (TIMI) risk score, lengths of stay (LOS), investigations and diagnoses were recorded for patients admitted with chest pain. Non-specific chest pain was defined as chest pain where cardiac, pulmonary and gastroesophageal aetiologies were excluded. Costs of admissions were calculated.

RESULTS

Of 80 patients, 34 (4%) and 22 (28%) were diagnosed with non-specific chest pain and acute coronary syndrome, respectively. Non-specific chest pain admissions had a mean age of 54 (11; 35-74) years, LOS of 3.8 (2.6; 1-11) days and TIMI risk score of 1.4 (1.5; 0-5). Acute coronary syndrome admissions had a mean age of 67 (14; 43-94) years, LOS of 7.7 (4.3; 2-16) days and TIMI risk score of 3.1 (1.2; 0-5). The mean cost per non-specific chest pain admission was €3,729 (2,378; 1,034-10,468), or 48% of the mean cost per acute coronary syndrome admission of €7,667 (4,279; 1,963-16,071). Bed day costs account for >90% of overall costs. Only 7% of patients were weekend discharges. The mean interval to exercise stress test was 2.7(1.5; 1-7) days.

CONCLUSIONS

The mean costs of admission and LOS for patients with non-specific chest pain are significant. Extrapolating findings, annual national cost is estimated at approximately €71 million for this cohort, with 73,000 bed days consumed nationally. Delays from admission to tests and low percentage of weekend discharges prolong LOS.

BS3-2: Mammary Stroma as an NSAID Target; Implications for Pregnancy-Associated Breast Cancer

Utilizing a young women's breast cancer cohort from the University of Colorado Cancer Center, we show that women diagnosed as late as five-ten years postpartum have worse prognosis than nulliparous women or women diagnosed during pregnancy, and represent ∼50% of all young women's breast cancer patients. We propose that breast involution following pregnancy accounts for this poor prognosis. Characterization of involution identifies tissue remodeling programs that share similarities with microenvironments known to promote metastasis. Using SHG imaging, we find fibrillar collagen bundles with radially-aligned fibers similar to those observed in invasive tumors deposited in the involuting gland. By immunohistochemistry and FACS we find macrophages with an M2-polarization-like profile similar to tumor-associated macrophages at abundant levels during involution. In three independent mouse models for postpartum breast cancer, we isolate postpartum mammary gland involution as a driving force for cancer progression. Mammary tumors arising in the mouse involuting microenvironment express COX-2 and isolated tumor cells are motile and invasive in a collagen-1/COX-2 dependent manner. Targeting involution-macrophages as likely mediators of tumor promotion was accomplished using a previously described mouse transgenic model. Macrophage depletion during involution had catastrophic effects on normal mammary gland involution. Conversely, inhibition of COX-2 with celecoxib, aspirin or ibuprofen did not interfere with postpartum lobular regression. COX-2 inhibition did decrease tumor growth, local tumor cell dispersion and lung metastasis. NSAID treatment also suppressed collagen and tenascin-C deposition in the involuting microenvironment, suggesting that modulation of extracellular matrix proteins may be a novel mechanism by which NSAIDs exhibit chemopreventive activity. Our studies indicate two distinct roles for COX-2 in the postpartum setting. COX-2 activity within the tumor cell is required for invasiveness and COX-2 activity in the host promotes collagen fibrillogenesis. Several correlative observations implicate the collagen/COX-2 pathway in postpartum breast cancer in women: involuting breast tissue has increased collagen with radially aligned fibers, analysis of 11 publically available microarray data sets shows high COL1A and COX-2 independently correlate with decreased relapse free-survival in young breast cancer patients, and COX-2 protein is observed in DCIS lesions in postpartum cases at higher levels than nulliparous cases.

In summary, our studies suggest further research into COX-2 inhibitor use might provide a novel strategy to improve the prognosis of young women should they be diagnosed with postpartum breast cancer. The question of whether an NSAID based intervention study could be aimed at recently pregnant women at high risk for breast cancer also remains to be determined, but is an extremely desirable objective given that the ∼ 6 million pregnancies in the US per year.

Supported by grants from DoD Synergistic Idea Awards BC060531 & BC10400/001, Komen Foundation KG090629, DoD Idea Award BC074970 to PJK, ACS New England Division Postdoctoral Fellowship Spin Odyssey PF-08-257-01-CSM to TRL and DoD Predoctoral Grants BC073482 to JO and BC100910 to HM.

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2011;71(24 Suppl):Abstract nr BS3-2.

Vaginal progesterone reduces the rate of preterm birth in women with a sonographic short cervix: a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

Women with a sonographic short cervix in the mid-trimester are at increased risk for preterm delivery. This study was undertaken to determine the efficacy and safety of using micronized vaginal progesterone gel to reduce the risk of preterm birth and associated neonatal complications in women with a sonographic short cervix.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that enrolled asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy and a sonographic short cervix (10-20 mm) at 19 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks of gestation. Women were allocated randomly to receive vaginal progesterone gel or placebo daily starting from 20 to 23 + 6 weeks until 36 + 6 weeks, rupture of membranes or delivery, whichever occurred first. Randomization sequence was stratified by center and history of a previous preterm birth. The primary endpoint was preterm birth before 33 weeks of gestation. Analysis was by intention to treat.

RESULTS

Of 465 women randomized, seven were lost to follow-up and 458 (vaginal progesterone gel, n=235; placebo, n=223) were included in the analysis. Women allocated to receive vaginal progesterone had a lower rate of preterm birth before 33 weeks than did those allocated to placebo (8.9% (n=21) vs 16.1% (n=36); relative risk (RR), 0.55; 95% CI, 0.33-0.92; P=0.02). The effect remained significant after adjustment for covariables (adjusted RR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.31-0.91; P=0.02). Vaginal progesterone was also associated with a significant reduction in the rate of preterm birth before 28 weeks (5.1% vs 10.3%; RR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.25-0.97; P=0.04) and 35 weeks (14.5% vs 23.3%; RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.92; P=0.02), respiratory distress syndrome (3.0% vs 7.6%; RR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.17-0.92; P=0.03), any neonatal morbidity or mortality event (7.7% vs 13.5%; RR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.33-0.99; P=0.04) and birth weight < 1500 g (6.4% (15/234) vs 13.6% (30/220); RR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26-0.85; P=0.01). There were no differences in the incidence of treatment-related adverse events between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The administration of vaginal progesterone gel to women with a sonographic short cervix in the mid-trimester is associated with a 45% reduction in the rate of preterm birth before 33 weeks of gestation and with improved neonatal outcome.

A cleaner river: long term use of semipermeable membrane devices demonstrate that concentrations of selected organochlorines and PAHs in the Brisbane River estuary, Queensland have reduced substantially over the past decade

We first used semipermeable membrane devices as samplers to evaluate concentrations of organochlorines and PAHs in the Brisbane River in 1998. Here we revisit this work and repeat the study a decade later in the same season (summer), also taking account of results from a similar study involving PAHs in the summer of 2001-2002. The accumulation of organochlorines and most PAHs in the samplers in the recent assessment was substantially less than in the 1998 deployment, suggesting that the ambient concentrations of these chemicals have decreased considerably over the last decade. In all cases there was high reproducibility of the mass of chemicals accumulated in the sampler. We used performance reference compounds in the later deployment, and assuming that the kinetics were similar in both deployment periods, we estimate that the concentration of dieldrin, the organochlorine found at highest concentrations, decreased from approximately 3.9 ng/L to about 1.4 ng/L. The decrease of most other analytes of interest including DDE and DDD was greater, potentially indicating that dieldrin is still entering the Brisbane River through run-off from urban areas where it was used widely for treatment of termites until 1995. DDT use in Australia ceased in the mid 1980s.

Correlated electron state in Ce(1-x)Yb(x)CoIn5 stabilized by cooperative valence fluctuations

X-ray diffraction, electrical resistivity, magnetic susceptibility, and specific heat measurements on Ce(1-x)Yb(x)CoIn5 (0≤x≤1) reveal that many of the characteristic features of the x=0 correlated electron state are stable for x≤0.775 and that phase separation occurs for x>0.775. The stability of the correlated electron state is apparently due to cooperative behavior of the Ce and Yb ions, involving their unstable valences. Low-temperature non-Fermi liquid behavior is observed and varies with x, even though there is no readily identifiable quantum critical point. The superconducting critical temperature T(c) decreases linearly with x towards 0 K as x→1, in contrast with other HF superconductors where T(c) scales with T(coh).

An ecological perspective of microbial secondary metabolism

Bacteria and fungi produce a remarkable array of bioactive small molecules. Many of these have found use in medicine as chemotherapies to treat diseases ranging from infection and cancer to hyperlipidemia and autoimmune disorders. The applications may or may not reflect the actual targets for these compounds. Through careful studies of microbes, their associated molecules and their targets, a growing understanding of the ecology of microbial secondary metabolism is emerging that exposes the central role of secondary metabolites in many complex biological systems.