The Mbam drainage system and onchocerciasis transmission post ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) campaign, Cameroon

Background

The impact of large scale Mass Drug Adminstration (MDA) of ivermectin on active onchocerciasis transmission by Simulium damnosum, which transmits the parasite O. volvulus is of great importance for onchocerciasis control programmes. We investigated in the Mbam river system area, the impact of MDA of ivermectin on entomological indices and also verify if there are river system factors that could have favoured the transmission of onchocerciasis in this area and contribute to the persistence of disease. We compared three independent techniques to detect Onchocerca larvae in blackflies and also analyzed the river system within 9 months post-MDA of ivermectin.

Method

Simulium flies were captured before and after 1, 3, 6 and 9months of ivermectin-MDA. The biting rate was determined and 41% of the flies dissected while the rest were grouped into pools of 100 flies for DNA extraction. The extracted DNA was then subjected to O-150 LAMP and real-time PCR for the detection of infection by Onchocerca species using pool screening. The river system was analysed and the water discharge compared between rainy and dry seasons.

Principal findings

We used human landing collection method (previously called human bait) to collect 22,274 adult female Simulium flies from Mbam River System. Of this number, 9,134 were dissected while 129 pools constituted for molecular screening. Overall biting and parous rates of 1113 flies/man/day and 24.7%, respectively, were observed. All diagnostic techniques detected similar rates of O. volvulus infection (P = 0.9252) and infectivity (P = 0.4825) at all monitoring time points. Onchocerca ochengi larvae were only detected in 2 of the 129 pools. Analysis of the river drainage revealed two hydroelectric dams constructed on the tributaries of the Mbam river were the key contributing factor to the high-water discharge during both rainy and dry seasons.

Conclusion

Results from fly dissection (Microscopy), real-time PCR and LAMP revealed the same trends pre- and post-MDA. The infection rate with animal Onchocerca sp was exceptionally low. The dense river system generate important breeding sites that govern the abundance of Simulium during both dry and rainy seasons.

The presence of parasite strains that respond sub-optimally to an approved drug, favourable breeding sites for the vector and infected individual in an area, will surely provide conditions for continuous and persistent transmission of a disease despite a long-term control intervention. We investigated the impact of ivermectin on entomological indices within 9 months following a large-scale MDA in the Mbam river drainage. The river system factors that could have favoured abundance vector breeding and contribute to the persistence of disease transmission were also examined within the study period. We observed vector abundance and high entomological indices throughout the study period following ivermectin MDA. We also observed high water discharge along the main river of the drainage basin in both the rainy and dry seasons and this is due to the presence of two dams constructed upstream at Bamendjing and Mape to regularize the course of river Sanaga in view of generating hydroelectric power at Edea. Factors favouring continuous and persistent disease transmission are present in this drainage basin despite over 20 years of annual IVM-MDA. There is need for alternative control strategy in order to accelerate the fight against onchocerciasis in the area.

Validation of loop-mediated isothermal amplification for the detection of Loa loa infection in Chrysops spp in experimental and natural field conditions

BACKGROUND

The mass drug administration of ivermectin for onchocerciasis control has contributed to a significant drop in Loa loa microfilaria loads in humans that has, in turn, led to reduction of infection levels in Chrysops vectors. Accurate parasite detection is essential for assessing loiasis transmission as it provides a potential alternative or indirect strategy for addressing the problem of co-endemic loiasis and lymphatic filariasis through the Onchocerciasis Elimination Programme and it further reflects the true magnitude of the loiasis problem as excess human mortality has been reported to be associated with the disease. Although microscopy is the gold standard for detecting the infection, the sensitivity of this method is compromised when the intensity of infection is low. The loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay of parasite DNA is an alternative method for detecting infection which offers operational simplicity, rapidity and versatility of visual readout options. The aim of this study was to validate the Loa loa LAMP assay for the detection of infected Chrysops spp. under experimental and natural field conditions.

METHODS

Two sets of 18 flies were fed on volunteers with either a low (< 10 mf/ml) or high (> 30,000mf/ml) microfilarial load. The fed flies were maintained under laboratory conditions for 14 days and then analysed using LAMP for the detection of L. loa infection. In addition, a total of 9270 flies were collected from the north-west, east, and south-west regions (SW 1 and 2) of Cameroon using sweep nets and subjected to microscopy (7841 flies) and LAMP (1291 flies plus 138 nulliparous flies) analyses.

RESULTS

The LAMP assay successfully detected parasites in Chrysops fed on volunteers with both low and high microfilariaemic loads. Field validation and surveillance studies revealed LAMP-based infection rates ranging from 0.5 to 31.6%, with the lowest levels in SW 2 and the highest infection rates in SW 1. The LAMP assay detected significantly higher infection rates than microscopy in four of the five study sites.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the potential of LAMP as a simple surveillance tool. It was found to be more sensitive than microscopy for the detection of experimental and natural L. loa infections in Chrysops vectors.

African regional progress and status of the programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis: 2000-2020

To eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) by 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has launched a campaign against the disease. Since the launch in 2000, significant progress has been made to achieve this ambitious goal. In this article we review the progress and status of the LF programme in Africa through the WHO neglected tropical diseases preventive chemotherapy databank, the Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN) portal and other publications. In the African Region there are 35 countries endemic for LF. The Gambia was reclassified as not requiring preventive chemotherapy in 2015, while Togo and Malawi eliminated LF as a public health problem in 2017 and 2020, respectively. Cameroon discontinued mass drug administration (MDA) and transitioned to post-MDA surveillance to validate elimination. The trajectory of coverage continues to accelerate; treatment coverage increased from 0.1% in 2000 to 62.1% in 2018. Geographical coverage has also significantly increased, from 62.7% in 2015 to 78.5% in 2018. In 2019, 23 of 31 countries requiring MDA achieved 100% geographic coverage. Although much remains to be done, morbidity management and disability prevention services have steadily increased in recent years. Vector control interventions conducted by other programmes, particularly malaria vector control, have had a profound effect in stopping transmission in some endemic countries in the region. In conclusion, significant progress has been made in the LF programme in the region while we identify the key remaining challenges in achieving an Africa free of LF.

Developing consensus of evidence to target case finding surveys for podoconiosis: a potentially forgotten disease in India

BACKGROUND

Podoconiosis is a non-infectious geochemical lymphoedema of the lower legs associated with a significant burden of morbidity. There are historical reports of podoconiosis in India, but its current endemicity status is uncertain. In this investigation we aimed to prioritise the selection of districts for pilot mapping of podoconiosis in India.

METHODS

Through a consultative workshop bringing together expert opinion on podoconiosis with public health and NTDs in India, we developed a framework for the prioritisation of pilot areas. The four criteria for prioritisation were predicted environmental suitability for podoconiosis, higher relative poverty, occurrence of lymphoedema cases detected by the state health authorities and absence of morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) services provided by the National Programme for Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis.

RESULTS

Environmental suitability for podoconiosis in India was predicted to be widespread, particularly in the mountainous east and hilly southwest of the country. Most of the districts with higher levels of poverty were in the central east and central west. Of 286 districts delineated by state representatives, lymphoedema was known to the health system in 189 districts and not recorded in 80. Information on MMDP services was unavailable for many districts, but 169 were known not to provide such services. We identified 35 districts across the country as high priority for mapping based on these criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate widespread presence of conditions associated with podoconiosis in India, including areas with known lymphoedema cases and without MMDP services. This work is intended to support a rational approach to surveying for an unrecognised, geographically focal, chronic disease in India, with a view to scaling up to inform a national strategy if required.

Linking soils and human health: geospatial analysis of ground-sampled soil data in relation to community-level podoconiosis data in North West Cameroon

Background

Podoconiosis is a form of leg swelling, which arises when individuals are exposed over time to red clay soil formed from alkaline volcanic rock. The exact causal agent of the disease is unknown. This study investigates associations between podoconiosis disease data and ground-sampled soil data from North West Cameroon.

Methods

The mineralogy and elemental concentrations were measured in the soil samples and the data were spatially interpolated. Mean soil values were calculated from a 3 km buffer region around the prevalence data points to perform statistical analysis. Analysis included Spearman's rho correlation, binary logistic regression and principal component analysis (PCA).

Results

Six elements, barium, beryllium, potassium, rubidium, strontium and thallium, as well as two minerals, potassium feldspar and quartz, were identified as statistically related to podoconiosis. PCA did not show distinct separation between the spatial locations with or without recorded cases of podoconiosis, indicating that other factors such as shoe-wearing behaviour and genetics may significantly influence podoconiosis occurrence and prevalence in North West Cameroon.

Conclusion

Several soil variables were statistically significantly related to podoconiosis. To further the current study, future investigations will look at the inflammatory pathway response of cells after exposure to these variables.

A cross-sectional study to evaluate depression and quality of life among patients with lymphoedema due to podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis and leprosy

BACKGROUND

Podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis (LF) and leprosy are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) that cause lymphoedema. When left untreated, they lead to substantial disability. This study determined the quality of life (QOL) and depression associated with lymphoedema in patients with podoconiosis, LF and leprosy. The study was conducted in northwestern Ethiopia.

METHODS

This baseline cross-sectional study, nested within an interventional, non-comparative, longitudinal study, included patients with lymphoedema. Depression and QOL were assessed using versions of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire and Dermatologic Life Quality Index (DLQI), respectively, that had been translated into Amharic and validated. Factors associated with depression and QOL were assessed using multivariate linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 251 patients with lymphoedema included in the study, 119 (47.4%) had moderate to severe depression and overall QOL was poor (mean±standard deviation [SD] DLQI score: 11.4±4.2). Disability was significantly associated with depression (β=0.26 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.19 to 0.33]). Currently receiving treatment (β=-3.05 [95% CI -5.25 to -0.85), disability (β=-0.08 [95% CI -0.15 to -0.01]) and social support (moderate support: β=-2.27 [95% CI -3.66 to -0.89] and strong support: β=-2.87 [95% CI -5.35 to -0.38]) were significantly associated with better QOL.

CONCLUSION

High levels of depression and low QOL were found among patients with lymphoedema due the three NTDs in Ethiopia.

High levels of depressive symptoms among people with lower limb lymphoedema in Rwanda: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There is a growing body of evidence that mental distress and disorder are common among people with lower limb lymphoedema, although no research has been conducted on this subject in Rwanda.

METHODS

This research was embedded within a mapping study to determine the national prevalence and geographical distribution of podoconiosis in Rwanda. Using a cluster sampling design, adult members of households within 80 randomly selected sectors in all 30 districts of Rwanda were first screened and 1143 patients were diagnosed with either podoconiosis (n=914) or lower limb lymphoedema of another cause (n=229). These 1143 participants completed the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-9 to establish the prevalence of depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Overall, 68.5% of participants reported depressive symptoms- 34.3% had mild depressive symptoms, 24.2% had moderate, 8.8% moderately severe and 1.2% severe depressive symptoms. The mean PHQ-9 score was 7.39 (SD=5.29) out of a possible 0 (no depression) to 27 (severe depression). Linear regression showed unemployment to be a consistently strong predictor of depressive symptoms; the other predictors were region (province), type of lymphoedema and, for those with podoconiosis, female gender, marital status and disease stage.

CONCLUSIONS

Levels of depressive symptoms were very high among people with lower limb lymphoedema in Rwanda, which should be addressed through holistic morbidity management and disability prevention services that integrate mental health, psychosocial and economic interventions alongside physical care.

Malaria epidemiology and stratification of incidence in the malaria elimination setting in Harari Region, Eastern Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has shown notable progress in reducing the burden of malaria over the past two decades. Because of this progress, the country has shifted efforts from control to elimination of malaria. This study was conducted to analyse the malaria epidemiology and stratification of incidence in the malaria elimination setting in eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted to analyse the epidemiology of malaria by reviewing the district health office data from 2013 to 2019 in Harari Region. In addition, three years of sub-district level malaria data were used to stratify the malaria transmission intensity. Malaria interventions (Long-lasting insecticidal nets [LLIN] and indoor residual spraying [IRS]) employed were reviewed to analyse the intervention coverage at the Regional level. Descriptive statistics were used to show the malaria transmission in terms of years, season and species of the malaria parasite. Incidence rate per 1000 population and death rate per 1 000 000 population at risk were computed using the total population of each year.

Results

In the Harari Region, malaria incidence showed a more pronounced declining trend from 2017 to 2019. Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax and mixed infections accounted for 69.2%, 30.6% and 0.2% of the cases, respectively. There was an increment in malaria intervention coverage and improved malaria diagnosis. In the year 2019 the coverage of LLIN and IRS in the Region were 93.4% and 85.1% respectively. The annual malaria incidence rate dropped from 42.9 cases per 1000 population in 2013 to 6.7 cases per 1000 population in 2019. Malaria-related deaths decreased from 4.7 deaths per 1 000 000 people annually in 2013 to zero, and there have been no deaths reported since 2015. The malaria risk appears to be heterogeneous and varies between districts. A higher number of malaria cases were recorded in Erer and Jenella districts, which constitute 62% of the cases in the Region. According to the sub-district level malaria stratification, there was shrinkage in the malaria transmission map and about 70% of the sub-districts have achieved elimination targets.

Conclusions

In the Harari Region, malaria morbidity and mortality have been significantly declined. Thus, if this achievement is sustained and scaling-up of the existing malaria prevention and control strategies by focusing on those populations living in the higher malaria transmission districts and sub-districts, planning of malaria elimination from the study area might be feasible.

EnDPoINT: protocol for an implementation research study to integrate a holistic package of physical health, mental health and psychosocial care for podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis and leprosy into routine health services in Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) causing lower limb lymphoedema such as podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis (LF) and leprosy are common in Ethiopia. Routine health services for morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) of lymphoedema caused by these conditions are still lacking, even though it imposes a huge burden on affected individuals and their communities in terms of physical and mental health, and psychosocial and economic outcomes. This calls for an integrated, holistic approach to MMDP across these three diseases.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The 'Excellence in Disability Prevention Integrated across NTDs' (EnDPoINT) implementation research study aims to assess the integration and scale-up of a holistic package of care-including physical health, mental health and psychosocial care-into routine health services for people with lymphoedema caused by podoconiosis, LF and leprosy in selected districts in Awi zone in the North-West of Ethiopia. The study is being carried out over three phases using a wide range of mixed methodologies. Phase 1 involves the development of a comprehensive holistic care package and strategies for its integration into the routine health services across the three diseases, and to examine the factors that influence integration and the roles of key health system actors. Phase 2 involves a pilot study conducted in one subdistrict in Awi zone, to establish the care package's adoption, feasibility, acceptability, fidelity, potential effectiveness, its readiness for scale-up, costs of the interventions and the suitability of the training and training materials. Phase 3 involves scale-up of the care package in three whole districts, as well as its evaluation in regard to coverage, implementation, clinical (physical health, mental health and psychosocial) and economic outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval for the study has been obtained in the UK and Ethiopia. The results will be disseminated through publications in scientific journals, conference presentations, policy briefs and workshops.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

METHODS

Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

RESULTS

For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.

RESULTS

Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.

CONCLUSIONS

While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Predicting the environmental suitability and population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. The geographical distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Africa are uncertain. We applied statistical modelling to the most comprehensive database compiled to date to predict the environmental suitability of podoconiosis in the African continent. By combining climate and environmental data and overlaying population figures, we predicted the environmental suitability and human population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa. Environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in 29 African countries. In the year 2020, the total population in areas suitable for podoconiosis is estimated at 114.5 million people, (95% uncertainty interval: 109.4-123.9) with 16.9 million in areas suitable for both lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Of the total 5,712 implementation units (typically second administrative-level units, such as districts) defined by the World Health Organization in Africa, 1,655 (29.0%) were found to be environmentally suitable for podoconiosis. The majority of implementation units with high environmental suitability are located in Angola (80, 4.8%), Cameroon (170, 10.3%), the DRC (244, 14.7%), Ethiopia (495, 29.9%), Kenya (217, 13.1%), Uganda (116, 7.0%) and Tanzania (112, 6.8%). Of the 1,655 environmentally suitable implementation units, 960 (58.0%) require more detailed community-level mapping. Our estimates provide key evidence of the population at risk and geographical extent of podoconiosis in Africa, which will help decision-makers to better plan more integrated intervention programmes.

Health system capacity for tuberculosis care in Ethiopia: evidence from national representative survey

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate the tuberculosis (TB) health system capacity and its variations by location and types of health facilities in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

We used the Service Provision Assessment plus (SPA+) survey data that were collected in 2014 in all hospitals and randomly selected health centers and private facilities in all regions of Ethiopia. We assessed structural, process and overall health system capacity based on the Donabedian quality of care model. Multiple linear regression and spatial analysis were done to assess TB capacity score variation across regions.

SETTING

The study included 873 public and private health facilities all over Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

None.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

None.

RESULTS

A total of 873 health facilities were included in the analysis. The overall TB care capacity score was 76.7%, 55.9% and 37.8% in public hospitals, health centers and private facilities, respectively. The health system capacity score for TB was higher in the urban (60.4%) facilities compared to that of the rural (50.0%) facilities (β = 8.0, 95% CI: 4.4, 11.6). Health centers (β = -16.2, 95% CI: -20.0, -12.3) and private health facilities (β = -38.3, 95% CI: -42.4, -35.1) had lower TB care capacity score than hospitals. Overall TB care capacity score were lower in Western and Southwestern Ethiopia and in Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The health system capacity score for TB care in Ethiopia varied across regions. Health system capacity improvement interventions should focus on the private sectors and health facilities in the rural and remote areas to ensure equity and improve quality of care.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping lymphatic filariasis in Loa loa endemic health districts naïve for ivermectin mass administration and situated in the forested zone of Cameroon

BACKGROUND

The control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) caused by Wuchereria bancrofti in the Central African Region has been hampered by the presence of Loa loa due to severe adverse events that arise in the treatment with ivermectin. The immunochromatographic test (ICT) cards used for mapping LF demonstrated cross-reactivity with L. loa and posed the problem of delineating the LF map. To verify LF endemicity in forest areas of Cameroon where mass drug administration (MDA) has not been ongoing, we used the recently developed strategy that combined serology, microscopy and molecular techniques.

METHODS

This study was carried out in 124 communities in 31 health districts (HDs) where L. loa is present. At least 125 persons per site were screened. Diurnal blood samples were investigated for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) by FTS and for L. loa microfilariae (mf) using TBF. FTS positive individuals were further subjected to night blood collection for detecting W. bancrofti. qPCR was used to detect DNA of the parasites.

RESULTS

Overall, 14,446 individuals took part in this study, 233 participants tested positive with FTS in 29 HDs, with positivity rates ranging from 0.0 to 8.2%. No W. bancrofti mf was found in the night blood of any individuals but L. loa mf were found in both day and night blood of participants who were FTS positive. Also, qPCR revealed that no W. bancrofti but L.loa DNA was found with dry bloodspot. Positive FTS results were strongly associated with high L. loa mf load. Similarly, a strong positive association was observed between FTS positivity and L loa prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a combination of parasitological and molecular tools, we were unable to find evidence of W. bancrofti presence in the 31 HDs, but L. loa instead. Therefore, LF is not endemic and LF MDA is not required in these districts.

Measuring the spatial heterogeneity on the reduction of vaginal fistula burden in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2016

Vaginal fistula is a shattering maternal complication characterized by an anomalous opening between the bladder and/or rectum and vagina resulting in continuous leakage of urine or stool. Although prevalent in Ethiopia, its magnitude and distribution is not well studied. We used statistical mapping models using 2005 and 2016 Ethiopia Demographic Health Surveys data combined with a suite of potential risk factors to estimate the burden of vaginal fistula among women of childbearing age. The estimated number of women of childbearing age with lifetime and untreated vaginal fistula in 2016 were 72,533 (95% CI 38,235-124,103) and 31,961 (95% CI 11,596-70,309) respectively. These figures show reduction from the 2005 estimates: 98,098 (95% CI 49,819-170,737) lifetime and 59,114 (95% CI 26,580-118,158) untreated cases of vaginal fistula. The number of districts having more than 200 untreated cases declined drastically from 54 in 2005 to 6 in 2016. Our results show a significant subnational variation in the burden of vaginal fistula. Overall, between 2005 and 2016 there was substantial reduction in the prevalence of vaginal fistula in Ethiopia. Our results help guide local level tracking, planning, spatial targeting of resources and implementation of interventions against vaginal fistula.

Mapping the global distribution of podoconiosis: Applying an evidence consensus approach

Background

Podoconiosis is a type of elephantiasis characterised by swelling of the lower legs. It is often confused with other causes of tropical lymphedema and its global distribution is uncertain. Here we synthesise the available information on the presence of podoconiosis to produce evidence consensus maps of its global geographical distribution.

Methods and findings

We systematically searched available data on podoconiosis in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception, updated to 10 May, 2019, and identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used the number of cases reported in studies and prevalence data with geographical locations. We then developed an index to assess evidence quality and reliability, assigning each country an evidence consensus score. Using these summary scores, we then developed a contemporary global map of national-level podoconiosis status.

There is evidence of podoconiosis in 17 countries (12 in Africa, three in Latin America, and two in Asia) and consensus on presence in six countries (all in Africa). We have identified countries where surveillance is required to further define the presence or absence of podoconiosis. We have highlighted areas where evidence is currently insufficient or conflicting, and from which more evidence is needed.

Conclusion

The global distribution of podoconiosis is not clearly known; the disease extent and limits provided here inform the best contemporary map of the distribution of podoconiosis globally from available data. These results help identify surveillance needs, direct future mapping activities, and inform prevention plans and burden estimation of podoconiosis.

The global distribution of podoconiosis is uncertain. With our current understanding of its distribution still incomplete, many of the countries suspected to be endemic for podoconiosis are based on expert opinion and lack published evidence of confirmed cases. In this study, we used multiple data sources and health metrics to identify countries with presence and absence of podoconiosis with appropriate uncertainties. After assembling a database of different evidence types we constructed a weighted score for each country called ‘evidence consensus scores’. We used these scores to measure the certainty of the presence and absence of podoconiosis. The maps produced help to identify evidence gaps and uncertainties in the current global distribution of podoconiosis. Countries with evidence of podoconiosis are mostly clustered in Africa, and a few in Asia and Latin America. We have also identified countries with indeterminate status on the presence and absences of podoconiosis. These countries are characterised by weak health systems and multiple co-endemic diseases causing lower leg swelling, potentially leading to misdiagnosis of podoconiosis. Given these challenges, we recommend intensified disease surveillance and active case searching be implemented in areas where evidence is lacking.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

The impact of acute adenolymphangitis in podoconiosis on caregivers: A case study in Wayu Tuka woreda, Oromia, Western Ethiopia. 'If she was healthy, I would be free.'

Background

Podoconiosis, also known as mossy foot or endemic non-filarial elephantiasis, is a preventable form of lower-leg lymphoedema caused by prolonged (typically barefoot) exposure to soil derived from volcanic rocks. Acute adenolymphangitis (also called ‘acute attack’) is a serious complication of podoconiosis resulting in significant symptoms and worsening disability. Despite the well-known morbidity associated with podoconiosis, to date there have been no studies looking at the impact, or burden, of podoconiosis on caregivers. This study explored the experiences and impact of acute attacks on the caregivers of those with podoconiosis in one endemic district of Ethiopia.

Methods/Principal findings

This qualitative study was based in Wayu Tuka woreda (district), Oromia, Western Ethiopia. 27 semi-structured interviews of those with podoconiosis and their caregivers were conducted in June 2018. Here we report the findings from the caregiver’s interviews. Data were analysed using NVivo 12. Directed content analysis, a qualitative approach related to thematic analysis, was used to analyse the results. This study highlights a previously unreported impact of acute attacks on the caregivers of those affected by podoconiosis. The findings demonstrate the significant social and financial pressures placed on podoconiosis-affected families which are exacerbated during acute attacks. This study also highlighted the emotional burden experienced by caregivers, the range of care activities placed on them and the limited support available.

Conclusions

This study found a significant impact on the caregivers of those with podoconiosis, especially during acute attacks, in Wayu Tuka woreda. It also highlighted the limited support available to caregivers. Further research is needed to understand whether this impact applies to podoconiosis caregivers across Ethiopia, and beyond, and to establish if there are wider implications of this important consequence of podoconiosis, for example on the economy and caregivers’ mental and physical health.

Podoconiosis is a foot condition, common in the highlands of Ethiopia, caused by exposure to volcanic soil. It can be prevented by wearing shoes and adhering to foot hygiene practices. Podoconiosis causes swelling of the lower legs and is a disabling and stigmatised condition. It is made worse by ‘acute attacks’, during which the leg becomes painful, swollen and red. Often the person affected cannot work and is bedbound during these episodes. This study identified a previously unreported burden on the caregivers of those with podoconiosis during acute attacks in one endemic district of rural Ethiopia. Specifically, we identified a significant social and financial pressure placed on podoconiosis-affected families in meeting healthcare costs, covering daily expenses such as children’s education costs and progressing within their communities. This study also highlighted the emotional burden experienced by caregivers, the range of care activities placed on caregivers and the limited support available. These findings warrant further research in other contexts but highlight an important wider social consequence of podoconiosis.