Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Identifying a gap in drowning prevention: high-risk populations

INTRODUCTION

Some populations have been less susceptible to reductions in drowning than others. It has been hypothesised that this is due to prevention strategies failing to account for the influence of social determinants (such as ethnicity, socioeconomic status). Populations such as ethnic minorities have been over-represented in injury statistics, however this is not well explored in drowning. This study aims to identify high-risk populations for drowning, risk factors and prevention strategies.

METHODS

A literature review undertaken systematically using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses approach was conducted of peer-reviewed literature in English, published between 1990 and 2018 from high-income countries. Search terms included drowning, water safety, ethnic minority, migrant, and culturally diverse.

RESULTS

In total, 35 articles were included. High-risk populations identified were: ethnic minorities, First Nations/Aboriginal people, migrants and rural residents. Over half (51%) focused on children (0-18 years). Risk factors included social determinants, swimming ability and knowledge, attitudes and behaviour. Four intervention studies were found; two focused on upskilling adults from high-risk populations to increase employment opportunities within the aquatic industry; an evaluation of a 10-year rock fishing safety education project and a learn-to-swim programme for minority children. Proposed prevention strategies included education, practical skills, research, policy and engagement.

DISCUSSION

Limited literature exists pertaining to drowning among adults from high-risk populations. There is a need to increase the sophistication of drowning prevention strategies addressing the disparities in drowning from a culturally appropriate perspective. Acknowledging the role of the social determinants of health in drowning prevention is essential in order to improve drowning outcomes for high-risk populations globally.

Characterising violent deaths of undetermined intent: a population-based study, 1999-2012

OBJECTIVES

Violent deaths classified as undetermined intent (UD) are sometimes included in suicide counts. This study investigated age and sex differences, along with socioeconomic gradients in UD and suicide deaths in the province of Ontario between 1999 and 2012.

METHODS

We used data from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, which has linked vital statistics from the Office of the Registrar General Deaths register with Census data between 1999 and 2012. Socioeconomic status was operationalised through the four dimensions of the Ontario Marginalization Index. We computed age-specific and annual age-standardised mortality rates, and risk ratios to calculate risk gradients according to each of the four dimensions of marginalization.

RESULTS

Rates of UD-classified deaths were highest for men aged 45-64 years residing in the most materially deprived (7.9 per 100 000 population (95% CI 6.8 to 9.0)) and residentially unstable (8.1 (95% CI 7.1 to 9.1)) neighbourhoods. Similarly, suicide rates were highest among these same groups of men aged 45-64 living in the most materially deprived (28.2 (95% CI 26.1 to 30.3)) and residentially unstable (30.7 (95% CI 28.7 to 32.6)) neighbourhoods. Relative to methods of death, poisoning was the most frequently used method in UD cases (64%), while it represented the second most common method (27%) among suicides after hanging (40%).

DISCUSSION

The similarities observed between both causes of death suggest that at least a proportion of UD deaths may be misclassified suicide cases. However, the discrepancies identified in this analysis seem to indicate that not all UD deaths are misclassified suicides.

Human rights-based approach to unintentional injury prevention

Unintentional injury remains an important global public health issue, and efforts to address it are often hampered by a lack of visibility, leadership, funding, infrastructure, capacity and evidence of effective solutions. The growing support for a socioecological model and a systems approach to prevention-along with the acknowledgement that injury prevention can be a byproduct of salutogenic design and activities-has increased opportunities to integrate unintentional injury prevention into other health promotion and disease prevention agendas. It has also helped to integrate it into the broader human development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals. This growing support provides new opportunities to use a human rights-based approach to address the issue. The human rights-based approach is based on the idea that all members of society have social, economic and cultural rights and that governments are responsible and accountable for upholding those rights. It incorporates a systems approach, addresses inequity and places an emphasis on the most vulnerable corners of humanity. It also leverages legal statutes and provides organisations with the opportunity to build existing international goals and benchmarks into their monitoring efforts. This paper describes the approach and highlights how it can leverage attention and investment to address current challenges for unintentional injury.

Associations between childhood obesity and upper and lower extremity injuries

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the overall and age-specific associations between obesity and extremity musculoskeletal injuries and pain in children.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used information from electronic medical records of 913178 patients aged 2-19 years enrolled in an integrated health plan in the period 2007-2009. Children were classified as underweight, normal weight, overweight, or moderately/extremely obese and, using multivariable logistic regression methods, the associations between weight class and diagnosis of upper or lower extremity fractures, sprains, dislocations and pain were calculated.

RESULTS

Overweight (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.20), moderately obese (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.27) and extremely obese (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.39) children had statistically significantly higher odds of lower extremity injuries/pain compared to normal weight, adjusted for sex, age, race/ethnicity and insurance status. Age-stratified analyses yielded similar results. No consistent association was observed between body mass index and injuries/pain of the upper extremities.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater body mass index is associated with increased odds of lower extremity injuries and pain issues. Because the benefits of physical activity may still outweigh the risk of injury, attention should be paid to injury prevention strategies for these children at greater risk for lower extremity injuries.

Age, period and cohort effects on the incidence of motorcyclist casualties in traffic crashes

Objectives

(1) Estimate age, period and cohort effects for motorcyclist traffic casualties 1979–2008 in New Zealand and (2) forecast the incidence of New Zealand motorcycle traffic casualties for the period 2019–2023 assuming future age, cohort and period effects, and compare these with an estimate based on simple linear extrapolation.

Methods

Age-period-cohort (APC) modelling was used to estimate the individual effects of age, period and cohort after adjusting for the other two factors. Forecasting was produced for three period-effect scenarios.

Results

After adjusting for cohort and period effects, 15–19-year-olds have substantially elevated risk. The period effect reduced in significance over time until the last period, 2004–2008, where the risk was higher than the preceding period. The 10-year cohorts born 1949–1958, 1954–1963, 1959–1968 and 1964–1973, had elevated risk. The forecasting, based on APC modelling, resulted in the lowest estimates of the future incidence being approximately one-third that of the highest estimate (6641).

Conclusion

Trends in motorcycle casualties have been influenced by significant independent age, period and cohort effects. These need to be considered in forecasting future casualties. The selection of the period effect has a significant impact on the estimates. Which period-effect scenario readers choose to accept depends on their views about a wide range of factors which might influence motorcycle use and crash risk over time.

Fatal childhood injuries in Finland, 1971-2010

BACKGROUND

Childhood injuries are a major public health problem worldwide, injuries being the leading cause of death and disability from early childhood through adolescence.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the 40-year nationwide trends in the number and incidence of fatal injuries among children aged 0-14 years in Finland, a country with a white European population of 5.3 million.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Official Cause-of-Death Statistics of Finland during 1971-2010. The main categories for unintentional injury deaths were road traffic injury, water traffic injury, falls, drowning and poisoning. For intentional injury deaths, the main categories were suicide and homicide.

RESULTS

In 1971, there were 109 fatal injuries involving girls and 207 involving boys, and in 2010, these numbers were 10 and 16. The corresponding incidence rates (per 100 000 children per year) were 20.1 and 2.3 (girls), and 36.7 and 3.5 (boys). The reduction in fatal injuries was mostly due to fewer unintentional injuries. The greatest decline occurred in the number of fatal motor vehicle injuries: from 57 (girls) and 92 (boys) in 1971 to 5 (girls) and 2 (boys) in 2010. Drownings followed a similar pattern. Violence-related deaths also showed a decreasing trend. In 1971, there were 14 intentional deaths in girls and 15 in boys, while in 2010 these numbers were 0 and 3, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide study confirms a decline in childhood injury deaths over the last four decades, with the greatest declines occurring in the number of fatal motor vehicle injuries, drownings and intentional injuries.