Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Surgical Antibiotic Prophylaxis: A Proposal for a Global Evidence-Based Bundle

In the multimodal strategy context, to implement healthcare-associated infection prevention, bundles are one of the most commonly used methods to adapt guidelines in the local context and transfer best practices into routine clinical care. One of the most important measures to prevent surgical site infections is surgical antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP). This narrative review aims to present a bundle for the correct SAP administration and evaluate the evidence supporting it. Surgical site infection (SSI) prevention guidelines published by the WHO, CDC, NICE, and SHEA/IDSA/APIC/AHA, and the clinical practice guidelines for SAP by ASHP/IDSA/SIS/SHEA, were reviewed. Subsequently, comprehensive searches were also conducted using the PubMed®/MEDLINE and Google Scholar databases, in order to identify further supporting evidence-based documentation. The bundle includes five different measures that may affect proper SAP administration. The measures included may be easily implemented in all hospitals worldwide and are based on minimal drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics knowledge, which all surgeons should know. Antibiotics for SAP should be prescribed for surgical procedures at high risk for SSIs, such as clean-contaminated and contaminated surgical procedures or for clean surgical procedures where SSIs, even if unlikely, may have devastating consequences, such as in procedures with prosthetic implants. SAP should generally be administered within 60 min before the surgical incision for most antibiotics (including cefazolin). SAP redosing is indicated for surgical procedures exceeding two antibiotic half-lives or for procedures significantly associated with blood loss. In principle, SAP should be discontinued after the surgical procedure. Hospital-based antimicrobial stewardship programmes can optimise the treatment of infections and reduce adverse events associated with antibiotics. In the context of a collaborative and interdisciplinary approach, it is essential to encourage an institutional safety culture in which surgeons are persuaded, rather than compelled, to respect antibiotic prescribing practices. In that context, the proposed bundle contains a set of evidence-based interventions for SAP administration. It is easy to apply, promotes collaboration, and includes measures that can be adequately followed and evaluated in all hospitals worldwide.

Ten golden rules for optimal antibiotic use in hospital settings: the WARNING call to action

Antibiotics are recognized widely for their benefits when used appropriately. However, they are often used inappropriately despite the importance of responsible use within good clinical practice. Effective antibiotic treatment is an essential component of universal healthcare, and it is a global responsibility to ensure appropriate use. Currently, pharmaceutical companies have little incentive to develop new antibiotics due to scientific, regulatory, and financial barriers, further emphasizing the importance of appropriate antibiotic use. To address this issue, the Global Alliance for Infections in Surgery established an international multidisciplinary task force of 295 experts from 115 countries with different backgrounds. The task force developed a position statement called WARNING (Worldwide Antimicrobial Resistance National/International Network Group) aimed at raising awareness of antimicrobial resistance and improving antibiotic prescribing practices worldwide. The statement outlined is 10 axioms, or "golden rules," for the appropriate use of antibiotics that all healthcare workers should consistently adhere in clinical practice.

Correction: Academic global surgical competencies: A modified Delphi consensus study

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002102.].

Determining Critical Topics for Undergraduate Surgical Education in Rwanda: Results of a Modified Delphi Process and a Consensus Conference

Background Developing a contextually appropriate curriculum is critical to train physicians who can address surgical challenges in sub-Saharan Africa. An innovative modified Delphi process was used to identify contextually optimized curricular content to meet sub-Saharan Africa and Rwanda's surgical needs. Methods Participants were surgeons from East, Central, Southern, and West Africa and general practitioners with surgical experience. Delphi participants excluded or prioritized surgical topic areas generated from extensive grey and formal literature review. Surgical educators first screened and condensed identified topics. Round 1 screened and prioritized identified topics, with a 75% consensus cut-off based on the content validity index and a prioritization score. Topics that reached consensus were screened again in round 2 and re-prioritized, following controlled feedback. Frequencies for aggregate prioritization scores, experts in agreement, item-level content validity index, universal agreement and scale-level content validity index based on the average method (S-CVI/Ave) using proportion relevance, and intra-class correlation (ICC) (based on a mean-rating, consistency, two-way mixed-effects model) were performed. We also used arithmetic mean values and modal frequency. Cronbach's Alpha was also calculated to ascertain reliability. Results were validated through a multi-institution consensus conference attended by Rwanda-based surgical specialists, general practitioners, medical students, surgical educators, and surgical association representatives using an inclusive, participatory, collaborative, agreement-seeking, and cooperative, a priori consensus decision-making model. Results Two-hundred and sixty-seven broad surgical content areas were identified through the initial round and presented to experts. In round 2, a total of 247 (92%) content areas reached 75% consensus among 31 experts. Topics that did not achieve consensus consisted broadly of small intestinal malignancies, rare hepatobiliary pathologies, and transplantation. In the final round, 99.6% of content areas reached 75% consensus among 31 experts. The highest prioritization was on wound healing, fluid and electrolyte management, and appendicitis, followed by metabolic response, infection, preoperative preparation, antibiotics, small bowel obstruction and perforation, breast infection, acute urinary retention, testicular torsion, hemorrhoids, and surgical ethics. Overall, the consistency and average agreement between panel experts was strong. ICC was 0.856 (95% CI: 0.83-0.87). Cronbach's Alpha for round 2 was very strong (0.985, 95% CI: 0.976-0.991) and higher than round 1, demonstrating strong reliability. All 246 topics from round 4 were verbally accepted by 40 participants in open forum discussions during the consensus conference. Conclusions A modified Delphi process and consensus were able to identify essential topics to be included within a highly contextualized, locally driven surgical clerkship curriculum delivered in rural Rwanda. Other contexts can use similar processes to develop relevant curricula.

Academic global surgical competencies: A modified Delphi consensus study

Academic global surgery is a rapidly growing field that aims to improve access to safe surgical care worldwide. However, no universally accepted competencies exist to inform this developing field. A consensus-based approach, with input from a diverse group of experts, is needed to identify essential competencies that will lead to standardization in this field. A task force was set up using snowball sampling to recruit a broad group of content and context experts in global surgical and perioperative care. A draft set of competencies was revised through the modified Delphi process with two rounds of anonymous input. A threshold of 80% consensus was used to determine whether a competency or sub-competency learning objective was relevant to the skillset needed within academic global surgery and perioperative care. A diverse task force recruited experts from 22 countries to participate in both rounds of the Delphi process. Of the n = 59 respondents completing both rounds of iterative polling, 63% were from low- or middle-income countries. After two rounds of anonymous feedback, participants reached consensus on nine core competencies and 31 sub-competency objectives. The greatest consensus pertained to competency in ethics and professionalism in global surgery (100%) with emphasis on justice, equity, and decolonization across multiple competencies. This Delphi process, with input from experts worldwide, identified nine competencies which can be used to develop standardized academic global surgery and perioperative care curricula worldwide. Further work needs to be done to validate these competencies and establish assessments to ensure that they are taught effectively.

Medical Students' Perceptions of Clinical and Research Training: An International Needs Assessment of 26 Countries

Objective

Despite calls to incorporate research training into medical school curriculum, minimal research has been conducted to elucidate trends in research knowledge, opportunities, and involvement globally. This study aims to: (1) assess medical students' perceptions of the level of training they received on research based on their medical school training, and (2) evaluate the obstacles related to conducting research as part of medical students' training.

Methods

A 94-question, bilingual survey designed by a small focus group of individuals from medical schools across the globe and administered to medical students from different parts of the world, distributed via social media networks (Twitter, Now X, Facebook) and email distributions via international partnerships from November 1 to December 31, 2020. The survey collected demographic information including age, gender, medical institution and country, degree, year in training, clinical rotations completed, plans for specialization, and additional graduate degrees completed. Statistical analysis included a summary of survey participant characteristics, and a comparison between regions, with a variety of comparison and logistic regression models used.

Results

A total of 318 medical students from 26 countries successfully completed the survey. Respondents were majority female (60.1%), from Latin America (LA) (53.1%), North America (NA) (28.6%), and Other world regions (Other) (18.2%). Students felt research was an important component of medical training (87.7%), although many reported lacking research support from their institution (47.5%). There were several reported barriers to research, including lack of research opportunities (69.4%), lack of mentors (56.6%), lack of formal training (54.6%), and barriers due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (49.3%). Less frequent were barriers related to financial resources (41.6%), physical resources (computer or internet access) (18%), and English language ability (6.9%). Students from Latin America and Other were more likely to report a desire to pursue research later in their medical careers compared with students from North America.

Conclusions and Implications for Translation

Despite significant interest in research, medical students globally report a lack of formal research training, opportunities, and several barriers to conducting research, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The study highlights the need for student research training internationally and the role of further regional-specific and institutional-specific evaluation of research training needs.

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

BACKGROUND

Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres.

METHODS

This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low-middle-income countries.

RESULTS

In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of 'single-use' consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low-middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia.

CONCLUSION

This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high- and low-middle-income countries.

Six Long-Standing Questions about Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Surgery

Surgical site infections (SSIs) are the most common adverse event occurring in surgical patients. Optimal prevention of SSIs requires the bundled integration of a variety of measures before, during, and after surgery. Surgical antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP) is an effective measure for preventing SSIs. It aims to counteract the inevitable introduction of bacteria that colonize skin or mucosa into the surgical site during the intervention. This document aims to guide surgeons in appropriate administration of SAP by addressing six key questions. The expert panel identifies a list of principles in response to these questions that every surgeon around the world should always respect in administering SAP.

Effectiveness of intraoperative peritoneal lavage with saline in patient with intra-abdominal infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Intraoperative peritoneal lavage (IOPL) with saline has been widely used in surgical practice. However, the effectiveness of IOPL with saline in patients with intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) remains controversial. This study aims to systematically review randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effectiveness of IOPL in patients with IAIs.

Methods

The databases of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane library, CNKI, WanFang, and CBM databases were searched from inception to December 31, 2022. Random-effects models were used to calculate the risk ratio (RR), mean difference, and standardized mean difference. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) was used to rate the quality of the evidence.

Results

Ten RCTs with 1318 participants were included, of which eight studies on appendicitis and two studies on peritonitis. Moderate-quality evidence showed that the use of IOPL with saline was not associated with a reduced risk of mortality (0% vs. 1.1%; RR, 0.31 [95% CI, 0.02–6.39]), intra-abdominal abscess (12.3% vs. 11.8%; RR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.70–1.48]; I2 = 24%), incisional surgical site infections (3.3% vs. 3.8%; RR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.18–2.86]; I2 = 50%), postoperative complication (11.0% vs. 13.2%; RR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.39–1.41]; I2 = 64%), reoperation (2.9% vs. 1.7%; RR,1.71 [95% CI, 0.74–3.93]; I2 = 0%) and readmission (5.2% vs. 6.6%; RR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.48–1.87]; I2 = 7%) in patients with appendicitis when compared to non-IOPL. Low-quality evidence showed that the use of IOPL with saline was not associated with a reduced risk of mortality (22.7% vs. 23.3%; RR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.45–2.09], I2 = 0%) and intra-abdominal abscess (5.1% vs. 5.0%; RR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.16–6.98], I2 = 0%) in patients with peritonitis when compared to non-IOPL.

Conclusion

IOPL with saline use in patients with appendicitis was not associated with significantly decreased risk of mortality, intra-abdominal abscess, incisional surgical site infection, postoperative complication, reoperation, and readmission compared with non-IOPL. These findings do not support the routine use of IOPL with saline in patients with appendicitis. The benefits of IOPL for IAI caused by other types of abdominal infections need to be investigated.

Components of Existing National Surgical Site Infection Surveillance Programs Based on a Case Series of Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Building Blocks for Success and Opportunities for Improvement

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) surveillance programs are recommended to be included in national infection prevention and control (IPC) programs, yet few exist in low- or middle-income countries (LMICs). Our goal was to identify components of surveillance in existing programs that could be replicated elsewhere and note opportunities for improvement to build awareness for other countries in the process of developing their own national surgical site infection surveillance (nSSIS) programs. Methods: We administered a survey built upon the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's framework for surveillance system evaluation to systematically deconstruct logistical infrastructure of existing nSSIS programs in LMICs. Qualitative analyses of survey responses by thematic elements were used to identify successful surveillance system components and recognize opportunities for improvement. Results: Three respondents representing countries in Europe and Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia designated as upper middle-income, lower middle-income, and low-income responded. Notable strengths described by respondents included use of local paper documentation, staggered data entry, and limited data entry fields. Opportunities for improvement included outpatient data capture, broader coverage of healthcare centers within a nation, improved audit processes, defining the denominator of number of surgical procedures, and presence of an easily accessible, free SSI surveillance training program for healthcare workers. Conclusions: Outpatient post-surgery surveillance, national coverage of healthcare facilities, and training on how to take local SSI surveillance data and integrate it within a broader nSSIS program at the national level remain areas of opportunities for countries looking to implement a nSSIS program.

Predictors of delayed consultation in undescended testis patients at a Rwandan referral hospital

INTRODUCTION: Delayed management of undescended testes (UDT) is associated with an increased risk of malignancy and impaired fertility. To identify causes of delayed consultation of patients with UDT at a Rwandan referral hospitalMETHODS: This was a retrospective study of patients with delayed UDT presentations from 2012 to 2016. A delayed UDT presentation was defined as any patient presenting with UDT at >1 year of age. RESULTS: There were 44 cases of delayed UDT presentations. Most patients (n = 35, 79.5%) were born at a hospital; the rest (n = 9, 20.5%) were born at home. The patient’s parent with higher education in the family was considered. Most of the patients’ parents (n = 29, 65.9%) had a primary education, 6 (13.6%) had a secondary education (high school graduate), 1 (2.3%) had a university education, and 8 (18.2%) never went to school. The reported reasons for delays as they appear in the patient chart were 16 (36.4%) patients due to ignorance, 12 (27.3%) due to poor physical examination at birth, 7 (15.9%) due to poor guidance, 4 (9.0%) due to poverty and 5 (11.4%) due to long appointments. There were no overlapping reasons for delay reported. Patients born at home were more likely to identify ignorance as a reason for the delay (p = 0.007). Of the 16 patients who reported a delay due to ignorance, 12 of their parents had primary education, and 3 had no education. Most (n = 34, 77.3%) patients were fertile in adulthood, but 9 (20.4%) presented with infertility and 1 (2.3%) presented with testicular torsion. CONCLUSION: A number of reasons are responsible for delayed consultation in patients with UDT, including ignorance, poor physical examination, poor guidance, and poverty. Most of the causes are preventable. The urgent need for awareness of UDT and collaboration between physicians is paramount for early consult and management.

Pediatric intestinal obstruction: analysis of etiologies and factors influencing short-term outcomes in Rwanda

Background

Intestinal obstruction is a common presentation in pediatric surgical emergencies and presents with different etiologies depending on country or region. Its morbidity and mortality are high in low-income and middle-income countries, with variable influencing factors. The aims of this study were to determine the etiologies, morbidity and mortality of pediatric intestinal obstruction and to assess the factors associated with the outcomes of these conditions in Rwanda.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study conducted on pediatric patients with intestinal obstruction in two Rwandan university teaching hospitals. The patients were followed from admission until discharge, and we documented their basic characteristics, diagnosis, operative details and postoperative outcomes. Data were collected using data collection form and were electronically captured and analysed using SPSS software.

Results

A total of 65 patients were enrolled in this study. They were predominantly male (n=49, 75.4%), and the majority of patients (86.2%) were below age 6 years. Intussusception was the most common etiology (n=22, 33.8%). Other common etiologies were Hirschsprung's disease (n=13, 20%), incarcerated inguinal and umbilical hernias (n=6, 9.2%), intestinal worms' impaction (n=5, 7.7%) and adhesions (n=5, 7.7%). Mortality and morbidity were 9.2% and 39.7%, respectively. The most common complications were surgical site infection (n=6, 9.5%) and sepsis (n=6, 9.5%). Preoperative anemia (p=0.001), finding of gangrenous bowels (p=0.003) and bowel resection at the time of laparotomy (p=0.039) were factors associated with postoperative complications.

Conclusions

The etiologies of intestinal obstruction are variable and common in children below 6 years in Rwanda. The associated morbidly is high and is influenced by the preoperative anemia, finding of gangrenous bowels and bowel resection.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Costs Associated With Surgical Infections at a Tertiary Referral Hospital in Rwanda

INTRODUCTION

In low-income and middle-income countries, there is a high demand for surgical care, although many individuals lack access due to its affordability, availability, and accessibility. Costs are an important metric in healthcare and can influence healthcare access and outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine the financial impact of infections in acute care surgery patients and factors associated with inability to pay the hospital bill at a Rwandan referral hospital.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of acute care surgery patients at a tertiary referral hospital in Rwanda with infections. Data were collected on demographics, clinical features, hospital charges, and expenses. Factors associated with inability to pay the hospital bill were analyzed using Chi-squared and Wilcoxon rank sum tests.

RESULTS

Over 14 mo, 191 acute care surgery patients with infections were enrolled. Most (n = 174, 91%) patients had health insurance. Median total hospital charges were 414.24 United States Dollars (interquartile range [IQR]: 268.20, 797.48) and median patient charges were 41.53 USD (IQR: 17.15, 103.09). At discharge, 53 (28%) patients were unable to pay their hospital bill. On a univariate analysis actors associated with inability to pay the bill included transportation via ambulance, occupation as a farmer, diagnosis, complications, surgical site infection, and length of hospital stay. On a multivariable analysis, intestinal obstruction (adjusted odds ratio 4.56, 95% confidence interval 1.16, 17.95, P value 0.030) and length of hospital stay more than 7 d (adjusted odds ratio 2.95, 95% confidence interval 1.04, 8.34, P value 0.042) were associated with inability to pay the final hospital bill.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there is broad availability of health insurance in Rwanda, hospital charges and other expenses remain a financial burden for many patients seeking surgical care. Further innovative efforts are needed to mitigate expenses and minimize financial risk.

Splenectomy versus Imaging-Guided Percutaneous Drainage for Splenic Abscess: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Splenic abscess (SA) is a rare, life-threatening illness that is generally treated with splenectomy. However, this is associated with high mortality and morbidity. Recently, percutaneous drainage (PD) has emerged as an alternative therapy in select patients. In this study, we compare mortality and complications in patients with SA treated with splenectomy versus PD. Patients and Methods: A systematic literature search of 13 databases and online search engines was conducted from 2019 to 2020. A bivariate generalized linear mixed model (BGLMM) was used to conduct a separate meta-analysis for both mortality and complications. We used the risk of bias in non-randomized studies of interventions (ROBINS-I) tool to evaluate risk of bias in non-randomized studies, and the Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach for assessing quality of evidence and strength of recommendations. Results were presented according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Results: The review included 46 retrospective studies from 21 countries. For mortality rate, 27 studies compared splenectomy and PD whereas 10 used PD only and nine used splenectomy only. Data for major complications were available in 18 two-arm studies, seven single-arm studies with PD, and seven single-arm studies with splenectomy. Of a total of 589 patients, 288 were treated with splenectomy and 301 underwent PD. Mortality rate was 12% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8%-17%) in patients undergoing splenectomy compared with 8% (95% CI, 4%-13%) with PD. Complication rates were 26% (95% CI, 16%-37%) in the splenectomy group compared with 10% (95% CI, 4%-17%) in the PD group. Conclusions: Percutaneous drainage s associated with a trend toward lower complications and mortality rates compared with splenectomy in the treatment of SA, however, these findings were not statistically significant. Because of the heterogeneity of the data, further prospective studies are needed to draw definitive conclusions.

Surgical Trainee Supervision During Non-Trauma Emergency Laparotomy in Rwanda and South Africa

OBJECTIVE

The primary objective was to describe the level of surgical trainee autonomy during non-trauma emergency laparotomy (NTEL) operations in Rwanda and South Africa. The secondary objective was to identify potential associations between trainee autonomy, and patient mortality and reoperation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a prospective, observational study of NTEL operations at 3 teaching hospitals in South Africa and Rwanda over a 1-year period from September 1, 2017 to August 31, 2018. The study included 543 NTEL operations performed by the acute care and general surgery services on adults over the age of 18 years.

RESULTS

Surgical trainees led 3-quarters of NTEL operations and, of these, 72% were performed autonomously in Rwanda and South Africa. Notably, trainee autonomy was not significantly associated with reoperation or mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Trainees were able to gain autonomous surgical experience without impacting mortality or reoperation outcomes, while still providing surgical support in a high-demand setting.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparison of Outcomes of Emergency Laparotomies Performed During Daytime Versus Nights and Weekends in Rwandan University Teaching Hospitals

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparotomy is a common procedure with high morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to assess if the time of surgery (day versus night and weekend) affects the morbidity and mortality in a low-resource setting.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted in 2 university teaching hospitals in Rwanda. Patient characteristics, time of laparotomy, operative details and postoperative outcomes were recorded. Chi-square and Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to determine factors and outcomes associated with time of surgery. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

In 309 patients, who underwent emergency laparotomy, 147 (48%) patients were operated during the daytime, 123 (40%) patients were operated during the night shift and 39 (12%) patients were operated on the weekend. Common diagnoses were intestinal obstruction (n = 141, 46%), peritonitis (n = 101, 33%) and abdominal trauma (n = 40, 13%). The overall mortality rate was 16% with 14% in patients operated during day and 17% in patients operated during night and weekends (p = 0.564). Overall, the morbidity rate was 30% with 27% in patients operated during the day compared with 32% in patients operated during night/weekends (p = 0.348). After controlling for confounding factors, there was no association between time of operation and mortality or morbidity.

CONCLUSION

Morbidity and mortality associated with emergency laparotomy are high but the time of day for emergency laparotomy did not affect outcome in Rwandan referral hospitals.

Improving hand hygiene measures in low-resourced intensive care units: experience at the Kigali University Teaching Hospital in Rwanda

Background

Proper hand hygiene (HH) practices have been shown to reduce healthcare-acquired infections. Several potential challenges in low-income countries might limit the feasibility of effective HH, including preexisting knowledge gaps and staffing.

Aim

We sought to evaluate the feasibility of the implementation of effective HH practice at a teaching hospital in Rwanda.

Methods

We conducted a prospective quality improvement project in the intensive care unit (ICU) at the Kigali University Teaching Hospital. We collected data before and after an intervention focused on HH adherence as defined by the World Health Organization '5 Moments for Hand Hygiene' and assuring availability of HH supplies. Pre-intervention data were collected throughout July 2019, and HH measures were implemented in August 2019. Post-implementation data were collected following a 3-month wash-in.

Results

In total, 902 HH observations were performed to assess pre-intervention adherence and 903 observations post-intervention adherence. Overall, HH adherence increased from 25% (222 of 902 moments) before intervention to 75% (677 of 903 moments) after intervention (P < 0.001). Improvement was seen among all health professionals (nurses: 19-74%, residents: 23-74%, consultants: 29-76%).

Conclusions

Effective HH measures are feasible in an ICU in a low-income country. Ensuring availability of supplies and training appears key to effective HH practices.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diagnosis of advanced prostate cancer at the community level in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men and sixth leading cause of mortality. If not recognized early, patients with advanced prostate cancer can experience debilitating complications which can otherwise be prevented by early androgen deprivation therapy. This research intends to define clear diagnostic tools that will guide practitioners in the rural community setting toward early management of advanced prostate cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional observational study at three referral hospitals in Kigali, Rwanda on patients who presented with clinical suspicion of advanced prostate cancer over a period of 6 months. All patients underwent prostate biopsy as well as metastatic work up (CT or MRI), for those who were eligible. Statistical analysis was done using STATA 14.2.

RESULTS

114 patients were included in the study. The median age was 70 years (interquartile range: 65-79 years). In total 14 (12.3%) patients were found to have benign disease, while 100 (87.7%) patients were found to have cancer. Among those who had cancer, 85 (85%) had advanced prostate cancer. 110/114 (96.5%) were symptomatic at presentation. Common presenting symptoms were lower urinary tract symptoms (80.7%), back pain (54.4%), and urinary retention (36.8%). Abnormal digital rectal examination (DRE) was a strong risk factor for both cancer and advanced disease. Prostate cancer was found in 92.2% of those with abnormal DRE compared to 41.7% in those with normal DRE (p = 0.001). Also, cancer was found in 96.1% of those with multinodular prostate on DRE (p = 0.02) and had high odds (OR 14.6; CI 3.41-62.25) of having advanced prostate cancer (p < 0.001). The mean (± SD) PSA was 643.3 ± 1829.8 ng/ml and the median (range) was 100 ng/ml (9.05-10,000 ng/ml) for the whole study population. All patients with prostatic-specific antigen (PSA) of 100 ng/ml or above had advanced prostate cancer.

CONCLUSION

The results show that there is a significant correlation between clinical findings and advanced prostate cancer. All patients with abnormal DRE and PSA above 100 ng/ml had advanced prostate cancer. Diagnosis of advanced prostate cancer is possible at the community level if PSA testing is utilized and practitioners are well trained.

Community- and Hospital-Acquired Infections in Surgical patients at a Tertiary Referral Hospital in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

Extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) are increasing in globally. The aim of this study was to compare community-acquired infections (CAIs) and hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) and determine the rate of third-generation cephalosporin resistance and ESBL-PE at a tertiary referral hospital in Rwanda.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study of Rwandan acute care surgery patients with infection. Samples were processed for culture and susceptibility patterns using Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method. Third-generation cephalosporin resistance and ESBL-PE were compared in patients with CAI versus HAI.

RESULTS

Over 14 months, 220 samples were collected from 191 patients: 116 (62%) patients had CAI, 59 (32%) had HAI, and 12 (6%) had both CAI and HAI. Most (n = 178, 94%) patients were started on antibiotics with third-generation cephalosporins (ceftriaxone n = 109, 57%; cefotaxime n = 52, 27%) and metronidazole (n = 155, 81%) commonly given. Commonly isolated organisms included Escherichia coli (n = 62, 42%), Staphylococcus aureus (n = 27, 18%), and Klebsiella spp. (n = 22, 15%). Overall, 67 of 113 isolates tested had resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, with higher resistance seen in HAI compared with CAI (74% vs 46%, p value = 0.002). Overall, 47 of 89 (53%) isolates were ESBL-PE with higher rates in HAI compared with CAI (73% vs 38%, p value = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

There is broad and prolonged use of third-generation cephalosporins despite high resistance rates. ESBL-PE are high in Rwandan surgical patients with higher rates in HAI compared with CAIs. Infection prevention practices and antibiotic stewardship are critical to reduce infection rates with resistant organisms in a low-resource setting.

Predicting mortality in adults with suspected infection in a Rwandan hospital: an evaluation of the adapted MEWS, qSOFA and UVA scores

RATIONALE

Mortality prediction scores are increasingly being evaluated in low and middle income countries (LMICs) for research comparisons, quality improvement and clinical decision-making. The modified early warning score (MEWS), quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), and Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) score use variables that are feasible to obtain, and have demonstrated potential to predict mortality in LMIC cohorts.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the predictive capacity of adapted MEWS, qSOFA and UVA in a Rwandan hospital.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND OUTCOME MEASURES

We prospectively collected data on all adult patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Rwanda with suspected infection over 7 months. We calculated an adapted MEWS, qSOFA and UVA score for each participant. The predictive capacity of each score was assessed including sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, OR, area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and performance by underlying risk quartile.

RESULTS

We screened 19 178 patient days, and enrolled 647 unique patients. Median age was 35 years, and in-hospital mortality was 18.1%. The proportion of data missing for each variable ranged from 0% to 11.7%. The sensitivities and specificities of the scores were: adapted MEWS >4, 50.4% and 74.9%, respectively; qSOFA >2, 24.8% and 90.4%, respectively; and UVA >4, 28.2% and 91.1%, respectively. The scores as continuous variables demonstrated the following AUROCs: adapted MEWS 0.69 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.74), qSOFA 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70), and UVA 0.71 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.76); there was no statistically significant difference between the discriminative capacities of the scores.

CONCLUSION

Three scores demonstrated a modest ability to predict mortality in a prospective study of inpatients with suspected infection at a Rwandan tertiary hospital. Careful consideration must be given to their adequacy before using them in research comparisons, quality improvement or clinical decision-making.

Malnutrition in Acute Care Surgery Patients in Rwanda

INTRODUCTION

Malnutrition is prevalent in hospitalized surgical patients and has been shown to significantly alter outcomes including length of hospital stay, complications, and mortality. Different tools for nutrition assessment were developed and are being used. The aim of this study was to characterize the nutritional status of acute care surgery patients, determine risk factors for malnutrition, and describe outcomes in patients with malnutrition.

METHODS

This was a prospective, descriptive study of malnutrition in acute care surgery patients at CHUK. Over a 6-month time period, we collected data on demographics, diagnosis, operation, and patient outcomes. We assessed the incidence of malnutrition using the American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (ASPEN) guidelines and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA). We reported frequencies and percentages for categorical variables and median and interquartile range (IQR) for continuous variables.

RESULTS

We analyzed data for 279 acute care surgery patients. Most (n = 209, 73%) patients were male. The median duration of symptoms was 5 days (IQR 2, 14). The most common diagnoses were trauma (n = 83, 30%), intestinal obstruction (n = 76, 27%), and peritonitis (n = 49, 18%). Most (n = 210, 73%) patients underwent operation. The median length of hospital stay was 6 days (IQR 4, 11). Using ASPEN guidelines, 99 (35%) patients had evidence of malnutrition on hospital admission and 76 (27%) had evidence of malnutrition using SGA. After 1 week of hospital stay, 48 (41%) patients had evidence of malnutrition. Overall mortality was 3%, with higher mortality seen in patients with malnutrition (8% vs. 0.6%, p = 0.001). The length of hospital stay was longer in patients with malnutrition on hospital admission (6 days vs. 5 days, p = 0.044).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute care surgical patients present to the hospital at high-risk for malnutrition. Efforts are needed to ensure that surgical patients receive adequate nutrition support to improve patient outcomes and minimize complications.

Indications and Outcomes for Non-Trauma Emergency Laparotomy: A Comparison of Rwanda, South Africa, and the USA

BACKGROUND

Emergency conditions requiring exploratory laparotomy (EL) can be challenging. The objective of this study is to describe indications, outcomes, and risk factors for perioperative mortality (POMR) after non-trauma EL.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of patients undergoing non-trauma EL at four hospitals in Rwanda, South Africa, and the USA. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with POMR.

RESULTS

Over one year, there were 632 EL with the most common indications appendicitis (n = 133, 21%), peptic ulcer disease (PUD) (n = 101, 16%), and hernia (n = 74, 12%). In Rwanda, the most common indications were appendicitis (n = 41, 19%) and hernia (n = 37, 17%); in South Africa appendicitis (n = 91, 28%) and PUD (n = 60, 19%); and in the USA, PUD (n = 16, 19%) and adhesions from small bowel obstruction (n = 16, 19%). POMR was 11%, with no difference between countries (Rwanda 7%, South Africa 12%, US 16%, p = 0.173). Risk factors associated with increased odds of POMR included typhoid intestinal perforation (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 16.48; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.31, 62.98; p value < 0.001), mesenteric ischemia (aOR: 13.77, 95% CI: 4.21, 45.08, p value < 0.001), cancer (aOR: 5.84, 95% CI: 2.43, 14.05, p value < 0.001), other diagnoses (aOR: 3.97, 95% CI: 3.03, 5.20, p value < 0.001), high ASA score (score ≥ 3) (aOR: 3.95, 95% CI: 3.03, 5.15, p value < 0.001), peptic ulcer disease (aOR: 2.82, 95% CI: 1.64, 4.85, p value < 0.001), age > 60 years (aOR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.41, 3.83, p value = 0.001), and ICU admission (aOR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.24, 3.99, p value = 0.007). Surgery in the US was associated with decreased odds of POMR (aOR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.80, p value = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Indications for EL vary between countries and POMR is high. Differences in mortality were associated with patient and disease characteristics with certain diagnoses associated with increased risk of mortality. Understanding the risk factors and outcomes for patients with EL can assist providers in judicious patient selection, both for patient counselling and resource allocation.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances: global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result.

RESULTS

Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Kigali Surgical Sepsis (KiSS) Score: A New Tool to Predict Outcomes in Surgical Patients with Sepsis in Low- and Middle-Income Settings

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is common in surgical patients, and its presence influences the outcomes in those to undergo surgery. Factors such as advanced age, presence of comorbidities and many other conditions increase mortality in surgical patients with sepsis. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score simplified into qSOFA helps to define sepsis and to identify patients who are likely to die from it. Sepsis in surgery is under investigated in low- and middle-income countries and so are the factors for mortality in that specific surgical population. Our aim was to develop a prognostic tool accurate in predicting outcomes in surgical patients with sepsis who present at University Teaching Hospitals of Kigali (CHUK) and Butare (CHUB) and in other centers with limited resources METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study conducted over a period of 1 year from February 2018 to January 2019. The surgical patients with sepsis recruited in the first 6 months at CHUK served as the derivation cohort and those recruited in the next 6 months from both CHUK and CHUB served as the validation cohort. The Kigali surgical sepsis (KiSS) score was derived, and to determine its accuracy in predicting mortality, we measured sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. We then compared this with qSOFA score.

RESULTS

A total of 288 patients were recruited with 144 in each cohort. The mean age was 36.5, and median age was 32.6. The mean length of hospital stay (LoHS) was 22.9 days. The overall intensive care unit (ICU) admission rate was 51.4%, and the surgical sepsis-related hospital mortality rate was 21.7%. Factors associated with surgical sepsis-related hospital mortality were age above 55 years (p = 0.034), presence of comorbidities (p = 0.069), hypotension (p = 0.014), tachycardia (p = 0.061), tachypnea (p = 0.028), decreased level of consciousness (p = 0.021), presence of GIT perforation (p = 0.026) and number of impaired organ function (p = 0.035). A predictive score (KiSS score) consisting of six parameters was derived from these factors and compared to qSOFA score. The sensitivity of KiSS score in predicting mortality was 73% (vs 52% for qSOFA), and the specificity was 97% (vs 87% for qSOFA). The predictive validity for hospital mortality was assessed by AUROC curve, and it was 0.939 (95% CI, p < 0.001) for KiSS and 0.684 (95% CI, p < 0.001) for qSOFA.

CONCLUSION

The KiSS score was effective in predicting surgical sepsis-related hospital mortality in low-resource setting. The KiSS score showed an added advantage of stratifying septic surgical patients to be operated on into those with good, variable and poor prognosis.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Survey of National Surgical Site Infection Surveillance Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) surveillance programs are strongly recommended as a core component of effective national infection prevention and control (IPC) programs. Participation in national SSI surveillance (nSSIS) programs has been shown to decrease reported SSIs among high-income countries (HICs), and it is expected that the same is possible among low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to determine what, if any nSSIS programs exist among LMICs. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was performed to evaluate existence of nSSIS of World Bank-defined LMICs. A digital survey assessment for presence of national IPC and nSSIS programs was delivered to persons capable of identifying the presence of such a program. Statistical analysis was performed using STATA. Institutional Review Board approval was obtained for this study. Results: Of the 137 countries identified, 55 (40%) were upper middle income (UMI), 47 (34%) were lower middle income (LMI), and 34 (25%) were low income. Representatives from 39 (28%) LMICs completed the survey. Of these respondent countries, 13 (33%) reported the presence of a national IPC program. There was no difference between countries with IPC programs and those without with respect to country income designation, population size, World Health Organization region, or conflict status. Only five (13% of all respondents) reported presence of a nSSIS program. Conclusions: National surgical site infection surveillance programs are an integral component of a country's ability to provide safe surgical procedures. Presence of nSSIS was reported infrequently in LMICs. International governing bodies should be encouraged to guide LMIC leadership in establishing a nSSIS infrastructure that will help enable safe surgical procedures.

Bacterial Resistance in Surgical Infections in Low-Resource Settings

Background: There is an alarming increase in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) globally, complicating management of surgical infections, especially in low-resource settings. Of particular concern for surgeons are third generation cephalosporin-resistant and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. Methods: The published literature was searched to identify the scope and causative factors of emerging bacterial resistance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Results: Antimicrobial resistance impacts economics, human development, health equity, health security, and food production. Factors that contribute to AMR include use of antibiotic agents in livestock, antibiotic agents in wastewater and sewage, poor sanitation, and overprescribing or unregulated use of antibiotic agents. Because the factors influencing AMR globally are multi-factorial, solutions must be addressed at multiple levels. In LMICs, these can occur through national initiatives, at the facility level, or at the community level with coordination engaging government agencies, the private sector, civil service, and professional groups. Conclusions: There is a growing recognition of the need for national AMR prevention programs. Meanwhile, infection prevention and control programs and antimicrobial stewardship remain cornerstones of management at the facility level.

The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background

Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study’s objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017.

Methods

Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning.

Results

Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes.

Conclusions

There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.

A cross sectional survey of factors influencing mortality in Rwandan surgical patients in the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Management of critically ill patients is a challenge in low resource settings where there is a paucity of trained staff, infrastructure, resources, and drugs. We aimed to study the characteristics of surgical patients admitted in intensive care unit in a limited resource setting and determine factors associated with mortality.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional observational study of all surgical patients admitted to the intensive care unit of a tertiary referral hospital in Rwanda. Data included demographics, diagnosis, management, and outcomes. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Over a 7-month period, there were 126 surgical patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Common diagnoses included head injury (n = 55, 44%), peritonitis (n = 33, 26%), brain tumor (n = 15, 12%), and trauma (n = 15, 12%). The overall mortality was 47% with the highest mortality seen in patients with peritonitis (76%). Factors associated with mortality on intensive care unit admission included hypotension (odds ratio, 12.50; 95% confidence interval, 3.04, 51.32) and having any comorbidity (odds ratio 5.69, 95% confidence interval, 1.58, 20.50).

CONCLUSION

Surgical patients admitted to the intensive care unit bear a significant mortality. Common surgical intensive care unit diagnoses include head injury and peritonitis. We recommend a review of the admission policy to optimize utility of the intensive care unit.

Surgical Infections in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Global Assessment of the Burden and Management Needs

Background: The burden of surgical infections in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remains poorly defined compared with high-income countries. Although there are common infections necessitating surgery prevalent across the world, such as appendicitis and peptic ulcer disease, other conditions are more localized geographically. To date, comprehensive assessment of the burden of surgically treatable infections or sequelae of surgical infections in LMICs is lacking. Methods: We reviewed the literature to define the burden of surgical infections in LMICs and characterize the needs and challenges of addressing this issue. Results: Surgical infections comprise a broad range of diseases including intra-abdominal, skin and soft tissue, and healthcare-associated infections and other infectious processes. Treatment of surgical infections requires a functional surgical ecosystem, microbiology services, and appropriate and effective antimicrobial therapy. Systems must be developed and maintained to evaluate screening, prevention, and treatment strategies. Solutions and interventions are proposed focusing on reducing the burden of disease, improving surveillance, strengthening antibiotic stewardship, and enhancing the management of surgical infections. Conclusions: Surgical infections constitute a large burden of disease globally. Challenges to management in LMICs include a shortage of trained personnel and material resources. The increasing rate of antimicrobial drug resistance, likely related to antibiotic misuse, adds to the challenges. Development of surveillance, infection prevention, and antimicrobial stewardship programs are initial steps forward. Education is critical and should begin early in training, be an active process, and be sustained through regular programs.

Factors Influencing Seeking and Reaching Care in Patients With Peritonitis in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

Peritonitis is an emergency which frequently requires surgical intervention. The aim of this study was to describe factors influencing seeking and reaching care for patients with peritonitis presenting to a tertiary referral hospital in Rwanda.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study of patients with peritonitis admitted to University Teaching Hospital of Kigali. Data were collected on demographics, prehospital course, and in-hospital management. Delays were classified according to the Three Delays Model as delays in seeking or reaching care. Chi square test and logistic regression were used to determine associations between delayed presentation and various factors.

RESULTS

Over a 9-month period, 54 patients with peritonitis were admitted. Twenty (37%) patients attended only primary school and 15 (28%) never went to school. A large number (n = 26, 48%) of patients were unemployed and most (n = 45, 83%) used a community-based health insurance. For most patients (n = 44, 81%), the monthly income was less than 10,000 Rwandan francs (RWF) (11.90 U.S. Dollars [USD]). Most (n = 51, 94%) patients presented to the referral hospital with more than 24 h of symptoms. More than half (n = 31, 60%) of patients had more than 4 d of symptoms on presentation. Most (n = 37, 69%) patients consulted a traditional healer before presentation at the health care system. Consultation with a traditional healer was associated with delayed presentation at the referral hospital (P < 0.001). Most (n = 29, 53%) patients traveled more than 2 h to reach a health facility and this was associated with delayed presentation (P = 0.019). The cost of transportation ranged between 5000 and 1000 RWF (5.95-11.90 USD) for most patients and was not associated with delayed presentation (P = 0.449).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, most patients with peritonitis present in a delayed fashion to the referral hospital. Factors associated with seeking and reaching care included sociodemographic characteristics, health-seeking behaviors, cost of care, and travel time. These findings highlight factors associated with delays in seeking and reaching care for patients with peritonitis.

Widespread antimicrobial resistance among bacterial infections in a Rwandan referral hospital

BACKGROUND

Resistance among bacterial infections is increasingly well-documented in high-income countries; however, relatively little is known about bacterial antimicrobial resistance in low-income countries, where the burden of infections is high.

METHODS

We prospectively screened all adult inpatients at a referral hospital in Rwanda for suspected infection for seven months. Blood, urine, wound and sputum samples were cultured and tested for antibiotic susceptibility. We examined factors associated with resistance and compared hospital outcomes for participants with and without resistant isolates.

RESULTS

We screened 19,178 patient-days, and enrolled 647 unique participants with suspected infection. We obtained 942 culture specimens, of which 357 were culture-positive specimens. Of these positive specimens, 155 (43.4%) were wound, 83 (23.2%) urine, 64 (17.9%) blood, and 55 (15.4%) sputum. Gram-negative bacteria comprised 323 (88.7%) of all isolates. Of 241 Gram-negative isolates tested for ceftriaxone, 183 (75.9%) were resistant. Of 92 Gram-negative isolates tested for the extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) positive phenotype, 66 (71.7%) were ESBL positive phenotype. Transfer from another facility, recent surgery or antibiotic exposure, and hospital-acquired infection were each associated with resistance. Mortality was 19.6% for all enrolled participants.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first published prospective hospital-wide antibiogram of multiple specimen types from East Africa with ESBL testing. Our study suggests that low-resource settings with limited and inconsistent access to the full range of antibiotic classes may bear the highest burden of resistant infections. Hospital-acquired infections and recent antibiotic exposure are associated with a high proportion of resistant infections. Efforts to slow the development of resistance and supply effective antibiotics are urgently needed.

Development of an acute care surgery service in Rwanda

Background

Acute care surgery (ACS) encompasses trauma, critical care, and emergency general surgery. Due to high volumes of emergency surgery, an ACS service was developed at a referral hospital in Rwanda. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology of ACS and understand the impact of an ACS service on patient outcomes.

Methods

This is a retrospective observational study of ACS patients before and after introduction of an ACS service. χ² test and Wilcoxon rank-sum test were used to describe the epidemiology and compare outcomes before (pre-ACS)) and after (post-ACS) implementation of the ACS service.

Results

Data were available for 120 patients before ACS and 102 patients after ACS. Diagnoses included: intestinal obstruction (n=80, 36%), trauma (n=38, 17%), appendicitis (n=31, 14%), and soft tissue infection (n=17, 8%) with no difference between groups. The most common operation was midline laparotomy (n=138, 62%) with no difference between groups (p=0.910). High American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (ASA ≥3) (11% vs. 40%, p<0.001) was more common after ACS. There was no difference in intensive care unit admission (8% vs. 8%, p=0.894), unplanned reoperation (22% vs. 13%, p=0.082), or mortality (10% vs. 11%, p=0.848). The median length of hospital stay was longer (11 days vs. 7 days, p<0.001) before ACS.

Conclusions

An ACS service can be implemented in a low-resource setting. In Rwanda, ACS patients are young with few comorbidities, but high rates of mortality and morbidity. In spite of more patients who are critically ill in the post-ACS period, implementation of an ACS service resulted in decreased length of hospital stay with no difference in morbidity and mortality.

Level of evidence

Prognostic and epidemiologic study type, level III.