Child maltreatment and resilience in adulthood: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Although child maltreatment (CM) has been linked to health problems and poor psychosocial functioning, not all individuals exposed to CM develop or experience negative consequences later in life. This suggests that some individuals show resilience after being exposed to CM. However, conclusions have been limited by inconsistent findings across different CM subtypes and resilience domains.Objective: To develop a protocol for conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify associations between CM (overall and its subtypes) and resilience (global and its multiple domains) in adulthood, and to examine moderators and mediators of these associations.Method: PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science will be searched to identify relevant studies on the association between CM (exposure) and resilience (outcome) in adults (≥ 18 years). Data will be screened and extracted by at least two independent reviewers. The methodological quality of the included studies will be independently assessed with a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). If deemed viable, a meta-analysis will be conducted using a random effects model. Heterogeneity of evidence will be estimated with the I2 statistic, and publication bias will be assessed. The effects of potential moderators (e.g. timing and severity of CM, age, sex, family cohesion, socio-economic status, country/region) will be analysed using meta-regression and subgroup analyses, and meta-analytical structural equation modelling will be employed to synthesise indirect mediation effects. Candidate moderators and mediators (e.g. genetic factors, brain functioning, attachment style, personality traits, physical activity, and social support) will be also examined qualitatively.Conclusions: This protocol will facilitate a systematic review and meta-analysis that has the potential to enhance our knowledge about the association between CM exposure in early life and resilience in adulthood. Understanding associations and underlying mechanisms between CM and resilience is potentially important in informing prevention and interventions to sustain health and improve outcomes among adults with a history of CM.PROSPERO registration: CRD42023394120.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Prevalence of Antenatal Depressive Symptoms and Associated Factors among Pregnant Women in Maichew, North Ethiopia: An Institution Based Study

BACKGROUND

Antenatal depression is one of the common problems during pregnancy with a magnitude of 20% to 30% globally. It can negatively endanger women's and off springs lives. As there are scarce reports on this area in Northern Ethiopia, it is important to carry out different studies that explore the magnitude of the problem and related factors in rural areas. The aim of this study is thus to assess the magnitude of antenatal depressive symptoms and associated factors among women at Maichew Town, North Ethiopia.

METHODS

A facility based cross sectional study was conducted among 196 pregnant women from April to June 2015. Pregnant women who had antenatal care follow-ups at the public health facilities were included in the study. Through proportional allocation to each facility, systematic random sampling technique was used to select the study participants. We used the local language version of Beck Depression Inventory to assess depressive symptoms with a cutoff point of 14 or more. Data was collected by trained Psychiatric Nurses; data entry and analysis were processed by SPSS window 20. The level of significance was determined using odds ratio and 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

About 16.3% of the participants had never given birth before, and 46.4% and 42.3% were in the third and second trimesters of pregnancy respectively. Unwanted pregnancy was reported by 25.5% of the participants. Among those with previous pregnancy, 7.1% had previous obstetric complication. The magnitude of depression was 31.1%. Pregnant women with low level of income (AOR=3.66 (95%CI; 1.12, 11.96)), unmarried (AOR=4.07 (95% CI; 1.18, 14.04)) and house wives (AOR= 4.24 (1.38, 13.03)) were risk groups for depression.

CONCLUSION

Antenatal depression is a common problem; thus screening activities of depression in antenatal care services should be emphasized with more concern to unmarried women, those with low level of income and house wives.

Prevalence of Depression and Associated Factors among Diabetic Patients at Mekelle City, North Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Coexistence of mental health problems on diabetes mellitus can result in poor management of the illness, poor adherence to treatment, and low quality of life. Therefore, it is highly crucial to assess these problems; thus we carried out this study with the aim of determining the prevalence of depression and identifying related factors among diabetic patients at city of Mekelle, North Ethiopia.

METHODS

Hospital-based cross-sectional study was employed among 264 diabetic patients, and participants were selected through systematic random sampling technique. We used local language versions of Beck Depression Inventory-II, Beck Anxiety Inventory, and Morisky 8 Item Medication Adherence Scale to assess the levels of depression, anxiety, and medication adherence, respectively. Socio-demographic and clinical factors were also assessed. We accomplish data entry, cleaning, and analysis through Statistical Package for Social Sciences window 20; also the level of significance was determined using adjusted odds ratio (OR).

RESULTS

The prevalence of depression among diabetic patients is 17% (95% confidence interval [CI]: [12.9%, 21.6%]). In addition, 28% and 18.2% has low medication adherence and comorbid anxiety, respectively. We identify anxiety disorder (AOR = 10.52, 95% CI: [4.56, 24.28]), poor medication adherence (AOR = 4.38, 95%CI: [1.98, 9.64]), and coexistence of other physical illness (AOR = 3.04, 95% CI: [1.11, 8.34]) as risk factors for depression.

CONCLUSIONS

Depression is a common mental health problem among diabetic patients which is related to poor treatment adherence coexistence of other physical illness and anxiety disorder. This emphasizes to formulate a mechanism for early detection and appropriate intervention.

Depression and anxiety disorder among epileptic people at Amanuel Specialized Mental Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Although depression and anxiety disorders are very common in people with epilepsy; there are no studies that assessed the magnitude and associated factors among epileptic people in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study determined prevalence and associated factors of depression and anxiety disorders in people with epilepsy.

METHOD

An institution based cross-sectional study was conducted from April to May, 2013, among 423 people with epilepsy from the outpatient department of Amanuel Mental Specialized Hospital. Depression and anxiety were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess predictors of depression and anxiety.

RESULTS

The prevalence of anxiety and depression among epileptic people were 33.5 and 32.8%, respectively. Monthly income, frequency of seizure and side effects of anti convulsants were found to be significantly associated with both depression and anxiety. Being divorced/widowed was associated with anxiety while using poly-therapy of anti convulsants, perceived stigma, and inability to read or write were associated with depression.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of co-morbid anxiety and depression was found to be high among people with epilepsy. Early identification of co-morbid depression and anxiety in people with epilepsy and managing epilepsy to become seizure free should be of great concern for health care providers.