Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Determinants of School dropouts among adolescents: Evidence from a longitudinal study in India

INTRODUCTION

India has the largest adolescent population in the world. However, many unprivileged Indian adolescents are still unable to complete schooling. Hence, there is a need to understand the reasons for school dropout among this population. The present study is an attempt to understand the determinants of school dropout among adolescents and identify the factors and reasons that contribute to it.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Longitudinal survey data- Understanding Adults and Young Adolescents (UDAYA) for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh has been used to identify the determinants of school dropout among adolescents aged 10-19. The first wave of the survey was conducted in 2015-2016, and the follow-up survey in 2018-2019. Descriptive statistics along with bivariate and multivariate analysis was used to observe school dropout rates and factors associated with it among adolescents.

RESULTS

Results show that the school dropout rate was highest among married girls aged 15-19 years (84%), followed by unmarried girls (46%), and boys (38%) of the same age group. The odds of school dropout among adolescents decreased with an increase in household wealth status. School dropout was significantly less likely among adolescents whose mothers were educated as compared to mothers who had no education. Younger boys [AOR: 6.67; CI: 4.83-9.23] and girls [AOR: 2.56; CI: 1.79-3.84] who engaged in paid work were 6.67 times and 2.56 times more likely to drop out of school than those who were not. The likelihood of school dropout was 3.14 times more likely among younger boys [AOR: 3.14; CI: 2.26-4.35], and it was 89% more likely among older boys [AOR: 1.89; CI: 1.55-2.30] who consumed any substances as compared to those who did not consume any substances. Both younger [AOR: 2.05; CI: 1.37-3.05] and older girls [AOR: 1.30; CI: 1.05-1.62] who acknowledged at least one form of discriminatory practice by parents were more likely to drop out of school than their counterparts. Lack of interest in studies/education not necessary (43%) was the predominant reason among younger boys for school dropout, followed by family reasons (23%) and paid work (21%).

CONCLUSIONS

Dropout was prevalent among lower social and economic strata. Mother's education, parental interaction, participation in sports and having role models reduce school dropout. Conversely, factors such as being engaged in paid work, substance abuse among boys, and gender discriminatory practices towards girls, are risk factors for dropout among adolescents. Lack of interest in studies and familial reasons also increase dropout. There is a need to improve the socio-economic status, delay the marital age of girls, and enhance the government incentives for education, give rightful work to girls after schooling, and provide awareness.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Temporal shifts in HIV-related risk factors among cohorts of adolescent girls and young women enrolled in DREAMS programming: evidence from Kenya, Malawi and Zambia

OBJECTIVES

To assess temporal shifts in HIV risk factors among adolescent girls (AG, aged 15-19 years) and young women (YW, aged 20-24 years) in Kenya, Malawi and Zambia.

DESIGN

Prospective cohorts with two time points (Kenya: 2016/2017, 2018; Malawi: 2017, 2018; Zambia: 2016/2017, 2018) SETTING: Community-based programming.

PARTICIPANTS

1247 AG (Kenya: 389, Malawi: 371, Zambia: 487) and 1628 YW (Kenya: 347, Malawi: 883, Zambia: 398) INTERVENTION: Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe (DREAMS), a multisectoral approach to reduce AGYW's HIV vulnerability by delivering a package of tailored, multilayered activities and services.Primary and secondary outcome measures: HIV testing, sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptom experience, number of sexual partners, condom use (consistently, at last sex), transactional sex, experience of physical violence (from intimate partners) and sexual violence (from intimate partners and strangers/non-partners).

RESULTS

Changes in HIV-related risk behaviours among DREAMS participants varied by age group and country. Among AG, HIV testing increased (Kenya and Zambia) and sexual violence from partners (in Kenya and Malawi) and non-partners (in Malawi) decreased. Among YW, HIV testing increased and STI experience decreased in Malawi; consistent condom use decreased in Kenya; transactional sex increased in Kenya and Zambia; and physical violence (in Malawi) and sexual violence from partners (in Kenya and Malawi) and non-partners (all three countries) decreased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Improvements in HIV testing and reductions in experiences of sexual violence were coupled with variable shifts in HIV-related risk behaviours among DREAMS participants in Kenya, Malawi and Zambia. Additional consideration of AGYW's risk circumstances during key life transitions may be needed to address the risk heterogeneity among AG and YW across different contexts.

No dynamic changes in plasma ACE2 activity in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Background

Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is expressed in the human myocardium and blood vessels and degrades the vasoconstrictor peptide angiotensin (Ang) II. Plasma ACE2 activity is elevated in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and is a predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in obstructive coronary artery disease. However, it is unknown whether acute coronary syndrome (ACS) causes dynamic changes in plasma ACE2 activity.

Purpose

We investigated dynamic changes in serial troponin-T and plasma ACE2 activity in patients presenting with ACS who underwent invasive coronary angiography (ICA).

Methods

Consecutive patients admitted with ACS from October-November 2019 were screened. Those meeting the Fourth Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction who had both ICA and serial troponin-T testing were included. The study was approved by the hospitals Human Research Ethics Committee. All patients had routine plasma samples taken over 3 time-points for measurement of troponin-T; the same sample was used to measure plasma ACE2 activity. Catalytic ACE2 activity was measured using a validated, sensitive quenched fluorescent substrate-based assay. Serial median troponin and ACE2 activity levels were analysed using the Friedman test for repeated measures.

Results

Forty-nine patients were included. The mean age of participants was 63.9±11.0 years, and 36 (74%) patients were male. Overall, 16 (36%) patients presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 29 (74%) with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Twenty-nine (59%) patients had a history of hypertension and 14 (29%) a history of ischaemic heart disease; 13 (27%) with priorMI, 11 (22%) had previous PCI and 2 (4%) had prior coronary artery bypass grafting. Over the 3 time points, there was a clear rise in median troponin-T levels representing myocardial injury (p<0.001), with no change in median plasma ACE2 activity (p=0.23, table 1). There was no difference in median ACE2 activity in those presenting with STEMI vs. NSTEMI (6.9 [2.1–9.5] vs. 6.0 [1.8–12.1], p=0.87), nor in those who underwent PCI to a culprit lesion compared to those who did not have a culprit lesion stented (5.8 [0.9–10.5] vs. 7.3 [2.8–14.9], p=0.37).

Conclusions

Patients with ACS had higher plasma ACE2 levels compared to levels previously reported in healthy controls. There were no dynamic changes in ACE2 activity in the setting of ACS, despite a significant rise in troponin-T. These results suggest that plasma ACE2 levels reflect underlying endothelial dysfunction rather than acute myocardial injury or infarction. Studies are now underway to assess if plasma ACE2 activity in ACS predicts MACE.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None. Table 1

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

What predicts the early sexual debut among unmarried adolescents (10-19 years)? Evidence from UDAYA survey, 2015-16

INTRODUCTION

The societal norm in India is such that adolescents are expected to respect and follow traditional values and view early sexual debut as undesirable and deviant from the social mores. However, a dramatic shift in attitudes towards sex before marriage has been observed in India. We in this study, aim to study the factors associated with early sexual debut among unmarried adolescents.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study used data from the Understanding the lives of adolescents and young adults (UDAYA) survey conducted in 2016 with 15,388 adolescents aged 10-19 years from two Indian states. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the associated factors.

RESULTS

Adolescent boys (9%) were more prone to early sexual debut compared to girls (4%). Both boys (17.2%) and girls (6%) who were school dropouts had significantly higher chances of early sexual debut. Boys who had rare [OR: 2.28; CI: 1.12-4.64] or frequent media exposure [OR: 2.70; CI: 1.36-5.32] were significantly more likely to report early sexual debut than those who had no media exposure. Further, the likelihood of early sexual debut was significantly higher among boys [OR: 3.01; CI: 2.34-3.87] and girls [OR: 1.87; CI: 1.12-3.12] who had exposure to pornography compared to their counterparts. The odds of early sexual debut were higher among boys [OR: 1.89; CI: 1.19-3.01] and girls [OR: 1.77; CI: 1.30-2.41] who had moderately-severe/severe depressive symptoms compared to their counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlight that Indian unmarried adolescents demand the appropriate knowledge to promote safer sexual behavior and lead a responsible and healthy lifestyle. The preventive efforts must be multifaceted with involvement at the individual and parental levels. Especially, interventions appear advantageous to be parents-focused emphasizing family life education that can prevent risky sexual behaviors among adolescent boys and girls. And the public programs should focus on sexual health promotion considering the physical and psychosocial changes during early ages of sex life.

Medical Care Disruptions During the First Six-Months of the COVID19 Pandemic: The Experience of Older Breast Cancer Survivors

Purpose.

Older cancer survivors required medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic despite infection risks, but there are limited data on medical care in this age group.

Methods.

We evaluated care disruptions in a longitudinal cohort of non-metastatic breast cancer survivors ages 60–98 from five US regions (n=321). Survivors completed a web-based or telephone survey from May 27, 2020 to September 11, 2020. Care disruptions included self-reported interruptions in ability to see doctors, receive treatment or supportive therapies, or fill prescriptions. Logistic regression models evaluated bivariate and multivariate associations between care disruptions and education, medical, psychosocial and COVID-19-related factors. Multivariate models included age, county COVID-19 rates, comorbidity and post-diagnosis time.

Results.

There was a high response rate (n=262, 81.6%). Survivors were 32.2 months post-diagnosis (SD 17.5, range 4–73). Nearly half (48%) reported a medical disruption. The unadjusted odds of care disruptions were significantly higher with more education (OR 1.23 per one-year increase, 95% CI 1.09–1.39, p =0.001) and greater depression (OR 1.04 per one-point increase in CES-D score, CI 1.003–1.08, p=0.033); tangible support decreased the odds of disruptions (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97–0.99 per one-point increase, p=0.012). There was a trend for associations between disruptions and comorbidity (unadjusted OR 1.13 per 1 added comorbidity, 95% CI 0.99–1.29, p=0.07). Adjusting for covariates, only higher education (p=0.001) and tangible social support (p=0.006) remained significantly associated with having care disruptions.

Conclusions.

Older breast cancer survivors reported high rates of medical care disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic and psychosocial factors were associated with care disruptions.

What shapes gender attitudes among adolescent girls and boys? Evidence from the UDAYA Longitudinal Study in India

Introduction

The role of gender norms in shaping education and work opportunities, distribution of power and resources, and health and wellbeing is well recognised. However, rigorous studies in low- and middle-income countries on when and how norms change over time and what factors shape adolescents’ and young adult’s gender attitudes are limited. This paper explores the factors that determine adolescents’ gender attitudes, as well as patterns in gender attitude shifts over time among younger and older adolescent boys and girls in India.

Data and methods

Data presented in this paper were drawn from a unique longitudinal study of adolescents aged 10–19 (Understanding the lives of adolescent and young adults–UDAYA study) in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in India, conducted during 2015–2016 (wave 1) and 2018–2019 (wave 2). The analysis presented in this paper drew on data from 4,428 boys and 7,607 girls who were aged 10–19 and unmarried at wave 1 and interviewed at both rounds of the survey. We used univariate and bivariate analyses to examine changes in adolescents’ gender role attitudes over time and the association between explanatory variables and gender role attitudes. We also used linear fixed effects regression models to identify factors that shape adolescents’ gender role attitudes.

Results

Gender role attitudes became more egalitarian over time among boys and girls, except among the older cohort of boys in our study. Among both younger and older cohorts, girls/young women held more egalitarian views than boys/young men and this pattern held over time for both cohorts. Factors that influenced gender role attitudes differed for younger and older adolescents, particularly among boys. While some predictors differed for boys and girls, there were substantial similarities as well. Gender attitudes were affected by factors at the individual, family, peer, and societal levels, as well as by community engagement.

Conclusions

Our findings show that it is possible to shift gender attitudes toward greater equity and, in so doing, contribute to improved health and rights.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sustaining consistent condom use among female sex workers by addressing their vulnerabilities and strengthening community-led organizations in India

Introduction

Between 2014 and 2017, a program aimed at reducing HIV risk and promoting safe sex through consistent use of condoms sought to work through addressing social and economic vulnerabilities and strengthening community-led organizations (COs) of female sex workers (FSWs). This study examines if the program was effective by studying relationship between strengthening of COs, vulnerability reduction, and sustaining of consistent condom use behavior among FSWs.

Methods

We used a longitudinal study design to assess the change in outcomes. A three-stage sampling design was used to select FSWs for the study. Panel data of 2085 FSWs selected from 38 COs across five states of India was used to examine the change in various outcomes from 2015 (Survey Round 1) to 2017 (Survey Round 2). The CO level program pillar measuring institutional development assessed performance of COs in six domains critical for any organization’s functionality and sustainability: governance, project management, financial management, program monitoring, advocacy and networking, and resource mobilization. Overall, 32 indicators from all these domains were used to compute the CO strength score. A score was computed by taking mean of average dimension scores. The overall score was divided into two groups based on the median cutoff; COs which scored below the median were considered to have low CO strength, while COs which scored above or equal to median were considered to have high CO strength. Multivariable regression modeling techniques were used to examine the effect of program pillars on outcome measures.

Results

Analyses showed a significant improvement in the strength of the COs over time; percentage of COs having high strength improved from 50% in 2015 to 87% in Round 2. The improvement in CO’s strength increased financial security (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR]: 2.18, p<0.01), social welfare security (AOR: 1.71, p<0.01), and socio-legal security (AOR: 2.20, p<0.01) among FSWs. Further, improvement in financial security led to significant increase in consistent condom use with client among FSWs (AOR: 1.69, p<0.01) who were members of COs having high strength. Sustained consistent condom use was positively associated with young age (<30 years), ability to negotiate with clients for condom use, membership in self-help groups, high self-efficacy, self-confidence, and client solicitation in streets and brothels.

Conclusions

Improving financial security and strengthening FSW led CO can improve sustained and consistent condom use. In addition, the program should focus on enhancing ability of FSWs to negotiate with clients for condom use, promote membership in self-help groups and target FSWs who are 30 years or older, and soliciting from homes to sustain consistent condom use across all FSWs.

HIV vulnerability among adolescent girls and young women: a multi-country latent class analysis approach

OBJECTIVES

To stem the HIV epidemic among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW, 15-24 years), prevention programs need to reach AGYW who are most at risk. We examine whether individual- and household-level factors could be used to define HIV vulnerability for AGYW.

METHODS

We surveyed out-of-school AGYW in urban and peri-urban Kenya (N = 1014), in urban Zambia (N = 846), and in rural Malawi (N = 1654) from October 2016 to 2017. LCA identified classes based on respondent characteristics, attitudes and knowledge, and household characteristics. Multilevel regressions examined associations between class membership and HIV-related health outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified two latent classes-high and low HIV vulnerability profiles-among AGYW in each country; 32% of the sample in Kenya, 53% in Malawi, and 51% in Zambia belonged to the high vulnerability group. As compared to AGYW with a low-vulnerability profile, AGYW with a high-vulnerability profile had significantly higher odds of HIV-related outcomes (e.g., very early sexual debut, transactional sex, sexual violence from partners).

CONCLUSIONS

Out-of-school AGYW had differential vulnerability to HIV. Interventions should focus on reaching AGYW in the high HIV vulnerability profiles.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Enhancing financial security of female sex workers through a community-led intervention in India: Evidence from a longitudinal survey

Introduction

Community-led organizations (COs) have been an integral part of HIV prevention programs to address the socio-economic and structural vulnerabilities faced by female sex workers (FSWs). The current study examines whether strengthening of community-led organizations and community collectivization have been instrumental in reducing the financial vulnerability and empowering FSWs in terms of their self-efficacy, confidence, and individual agency in India.

Data and methods

This study used a panel data of 2085 FSWs selected from 38 COs across five states of India. Two rounds of data (Round 1 in 2015 and Round 2 in 2017) were collected among FSWs. Data were collected both at CO and individual level. CO level data was used to assess the CO strength. Individual level data was used to measure financial security, community collectivization, and individual empowerment.

Results

There was a significant improvement in CO strength and community collectivization from Round 1 to Round 2. High CO strength has led to improved financial security among FSWs (R2: 85% vs. R1: 51%, AOR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5–4.1) from Round 1 to Round 2. High collective efficacy and community ownership have improved the financial security of FSWs during the inter-survey period. Further, the improvement in financial security in the inter-survey period led to increased or sustained individual empowerment (in terms of self-confidence, self-efficacy, and individual agency) among FSWs.

Conclusions

Institutional strengthening and community mobilization programs are key to address the structural issues and the decrease of financial vulnerability among FSWs. In addition, enhanced financial security is very important to sustain or improve the individual empowerment of FSWs. Further attention is needed to sustain the existing community advocacy and engagement systems to address the vulnerabilities faced by marginalized populations and build their empowerment.

P5740ACE2 activity level is associated with embolic stroke of undetermined source

Background

ACE2 activity levels correlate with adverse left atrial remodelling in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Several biochemical and structural markers have been associated with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). The relationship between ACE2 activity and ESUS is unknown.

Purpose

Randomised controlled trials failed to demonstrate a clear benefit of oral anticoagulation in an unselected ESUS population. As selective use of oral anticoagulation guided by biomarker risk-profiling may benefit these patients, we evaluated the association between ACE2 activity and ESUS.

Methods

This prospective case control study compared patients with ESUS against a control group matched for vascular risk factors. ESUS was diagnosed following cerebral vascular imaging and 24 hours of cardiac monitoring to exclude AF. Blood samples were collected for measurement of ACE2 activity, D-Dimer and high sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT).

Results

A total of 51 patients in the ESUS group were compared with 47 patients in the Control group. ACE2 activity and D-Dimer levels were significantly higher in the ESUS group. There was a significant but weak positive correlation between ACE2 activity and hsTnT (r=0.20, p<0.05). Left atrial volume index (LAVI) on echocardiography was significantly higher in the ESUS group. On regression modelling adjusting for LAVI, only ACE2 activity remained significant for ESUS, with a 20% rise in odds for every 4 unit increase in ACE2 activity (OR 1.20; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.36, p=0.04).

Participant characteristics Control (n=47) ESUS (n=51) P value Age (years) 65.65±6.78 67.20±6.89 0.26 Female gender 22 (45.8) 19 (38.0) 0.43 Hypertension 22 (45.8) 24 (48.0) 0.83 Diabetes mellitus 9 (18.8) 12 (24.0) 0.53 CHA2DS2VASc score 2 (1–3) 2 (1–3) 0.50 LA size & Biomarkers   LA volume index (ml/m2) 36.5 (32.6–42.5) 39.1 (36.2–46.0) 0.04   ACE2 (pmol/ml/min) 7.24 (2.66–14.64) 10.16 (4.54–18.80) 0.04   D-Dimer (mg/L) 0.35 (0.3–0.5) 0.40 (0.30–0.60) 0.02   hsTroponin T (ng/L) 7.0 (5–10) 9.00 (6.0–13.5) 0.05 Values are expressed as mean ± standard deviation, median (IQR), or n (%).

Median ACE2 activity

Conclusion(s)

ACE2 activity is associated with ESUS independent of left atrial volume and correlate with elevated Troponin. Further studies are warranted to investigate the utility of ACE2 activity in identifying ESUS patients that may benefit from oral anticoagulation.

Acknowledgement/Funding

This study received project funding from the Eastern Health Foundation

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Community Organization Membership, Financial Security, and Social Protection among Female Sex Workers in India

The purpose of this study is to examine the female sex workers’ (FSWs) community organization (CO) membership, their financial and social protection security, and the relationship between these factors among FSWs in India. Data from 4098 FSWs collected under the Avahan-III baseline evaluation survey—2015 in 5 high HIV prevalence states (Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh) in India were used here. More than three-fifths (77%) were registered CO members, of whom 79% had been CO members for more than 1 year. The likelihood of having high financial security (19% versus 10%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3-2.1) and social protection security (13% versus 6%; AOR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2-2.0) was 2 times higher among FSWs who were CO members compared to those who were not. The study offers important insights into furthering CO membership to address financial and social vulnerability as a path to a sustainable reduction of HIV risk.

High rates of sexual violence by both intimate and non-intimate partners experienced by adolescent girls and young women in Kenya and Zambia: Findings around violence and other negative health outcomes

BACKGROUND

While links between intimate-partner violence (IPV) and HIV risk have been established, less is known about violence perpetrated by people other than intimate partners. In addition, much of the research on IPV has been conducted with adults, while relatively little is known about violence experienced by adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). We examined experiences of sexual violence and associated sexual and mental health among AGYW in Kenya and Zambia.

METHODS

Using cross-sectional surveys with women aged 15-24 years, we assessed experience of partner sexual violence among respondents who reported a boyfriend/husband in the last 12 months (Kenya N = 597; Zambia N = 426) and non-partner sexual violence among all respondents (Kenya N = 1778; Zambia N = 1915). We conducted logistic regression analyses to examine experiences of sexual violence and health outcomes.

RESULTS

Sexual violence from intimate partners over the last year was reported by 19.1 percent of AGYW respondents in Kenya and 22.2 percent in Zambia; sexual violence from non-partners was reported by 21.4 percent in Kenya and 16.9 percent in Zambia. Experience of sexual violence was associated with negative health outcomes. Violence from non-partners was associated with increased odds of STI symptoms and increased levels of anxiety and depression. Results were similar for violence from partners, although only significant in Kenya. While sexual violence from a non-partner was associated with increased HIV risk perception, it was not associated when the violence was experienced from an intimate partner.

CONCLUSIONS

AGYW reported high levels of sexual violence from both intimate partners and non-partners. These experiences were associated with negative health outcomes, though there were some differences by country context. Strengthening sexual violence prevention programs, increasing sexual violence screening, and expanding the provision of post-violence care are needed to reduce intimate and non-partner violence and the effects of violence on AGYW.

Building the evidence base on the HIV programme in India: an integrated approach to document programmatic learnings

Background

The Knowledge Network project was launched in 2010 to build evidence on the HIV epidemic by using the data generated by HIV programme implementing organisations in India. This paper describes the implementation of the programme and the strategies adopted to enhance the capacity of individuals to document and publish HIV prevention programme learnings. Further, it discusses the outcomes of the initiative.

Methods

A multipronged approach was adopted, where a group of experts were brought together to collaborate with programme implementing organisations, review available data, develop research questions and guide peer-reviewed publications. Further, scientific writing courses were conducted to support individuals from HIV programme implementing organisations as well as educational and government organisations (mentees) to build the documentation capacity of individuals leading programme implementation and current and future researchers. The impact and quality of evidence generated was measured by examining the number of papers published, the number of citations, and the number of papers with at least 10 citations. Additionally, course participants’ responses to open-ended questions in the anonymous course evaluation questionnaires are presented as verbatim quotes.

Results

Overall, 99 papers on HIV programmatic learnings from India were finalised under the programme, of which 95 have been published. In all, 67 papers were co-authored by mentees. Most papers were published in high-impact factor (1 or more) journals and 72% were cited at least once in the literature. The main themes documented include key populations’ HIV risk, HIV risk of general population groups, HIV/STI service delivery models and community mobilisation interventions.

Conclusion

The study demonstrates that an integrated approach, involving partnership, capacity-building and mentorship, can maximise the use of available data and build the evidence base on HIV programmatic learnings. The capacity-building model adopted in the programme can be used to build scientific writing and documentation capacity in other public health programmes that are implemented at scale.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12961-018-0291-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.

Left ventricular hypertrophy and cognitive function: a systematic review

Cognitive impairment is common in patients with hypertension. Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is recognised as a marker of hypertension-related organ damage and is a strong predictor of coronary artery disease, heart failure and stroke. There is evidence that LVH is independently associated with cognitive impairment, even after adjustment for the presence of hypertension. We conducted a systematic review that examined cognitive impairment in adults with LVH. Independent searches were performed in Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid psycInfo and PubMed with the terms left ventricular hypertrophy and cognition. Seventy-three studies were identified when both searches were combined. After limiting the search to studies that were: (1) reported in English; (2) conducted in humans; (3) in adults aged 50 years and older; and (4) investigated the relationship between LVH and cognitive performance, nine papers were included in this systematic review. The majority of studies found an association between LVH and cognitive performance. Inspection of results indicated that individuals with LVH exhibited a lower performance in cognitive tests, when compared to individuals without LVH. Memory and executive functions were the cognitive domains that showed a specific vulnerability to the presence of LVH. A possible mechanism for the relationship between LVH and cognition is the presence of cerebral white matter damage. White matter lesions occur frequently in patients with LVH and may contribute to cognitive dysfunction. Together, the results of this review suggest that memory impairment and executive dysfunction are the cognitive domains that showed a particular association with the presence of LVH.

Arylene Azo p-Hydroxy Benzoic Acid–Formaldehyde Oligomer Dyes

A series of oligomeric azo dyes has been synthesized by coupling various aromatic diazonium salts to p-hydroxy benzoic acid–formaldehyde ( p-HBAF) oligomer. They were evaluated in terms of their softening points, yields, colour, UV–visible spectra, IR spectra and PMR spectra. Dyeing on wool and nylon resulted in yellow to red shades having moderate to good fastness to light and good to very good fastness to washing.

Knowledge and exercise of human rights, and barriers and facilitators to claiming rights: a cross-sectional study of female sex workers and high-risk men who have sex with men in Andhra Pradesh, India

Background

HIV prevention interventions recognize the need to protect the rights of key populations and support them to claim their rights as a vulnerability reduction strategy. This study explores knowledge of human rights, and barriers and facilitators to claiming rights, among female sex workers (FSWs) and high-risk men who have sex with men (HR-MSM) who are beneficiaries of a community mobilization intervention in Andhra Pradesh, India.

Methods

Data are drawn from a cross-sectional survey (2014) among 2400 FSWs and 1200 HR-MSM. Human rights awareness was assessed by asking respondents if they had heard of human rights (yes/no); those reporting awareness of rights were asked to spontaneously name specific rights from the following five pre-defined categories: right to health; dignity/equality; education; property; and freedom from discrimination. Respondents were classified into two groups: more knowledgeable (could identify two or more rights) and less knowledgeable (could identify one or no right). Univariate and bivariate analyses and chi-square tests were used. Data were analyzed using STATA 11.2.

Results

Overall 17% FSWs and 8% HR-MSM were not aware of their rights. Among those aware, 62% and 31% respectively were aware of just one or no right (less knowledgeable); only around half (54% vs 57%) were aware of health rights, and fewer (20% vs 16%) aware of their right to freedom from discrimination. Notably, 27% and 17% respectively had not exercised their rights. Barriers to claiming rights among FSWs and HR-MSM were neighbors (35% vs 37%), lack of knowledge (15% vs 14%), stigma (13% vs 22%) and spouse (19% FSWs). Community organizations (COs) were by far the leading facilitator in claiming rights (57% vs 72%).

Conclusions

The study findings show that awareness of human rights is limited among FSWs and HR-MSM, and a large proportion have not claimed their rights, elevating their HIV vulnerability. For a sustained HIV response, community mobilization efforts must focus on building key populations’ awareness of rights, and addressing the multiple barriers to claiming rights, with a view to creating a safe environment where vulnerable groups can demand and use services without fear of stigma, discrimination and violation of rights.

Relationship between mobility, violence and major depression among female sex workers: a cross-sectional study in southern India

BACKGROUND

The relationship between mobility, violence and mental health has largely been unexplored in developing countries. This study screens for signs of major depression, and assesses its association with mobility and violence among female sex workers (FSWs) in southern India.

METHODS

Data (N=2400) for this study were used from a cross-sectional Behavioral Tracking Survey (BTS-2014) conducted among FSWs from a southern state of India as part of the Avahan programme. Major depression of FSWs was assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 depression scale. Descriptive statistics, frequency, bivariate, interaction effect and multivariate logistic regression techniques were used for the analysis.

RESULTS

More than one-fourth of FSWs (29%) screened positive for major depression. The likelihood of screening positive for major depression was 6 times higher among FSWs who were both mobile for sex work outside their district of residence and had experienced any violence (combined association) during the past 1 year (62% vs 19%, adjusted OR 6.1, 95% CI 4.4 to 8.6) compared with those who reported neither. The individual association results show that FSWs who reported being mobile outside the district, and FSWs who were beaten or raped in the past 1 year, were 3 times more likely to screen positive for major depression.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that violence and mobility are independently associated with major depression among FSWs. The combined association of mobility and violence poses a greater risk to the mental health of FSWs than their independent association. These results point to the need for creating an enabling environment for FSWs to enhance existing efforts to reduce the spread of HIV and mental health problems. The study highlights that HIV prevention efforts among FSWs in India require evidence-based research and integrated programme approaches to address mental health issues.

Community Collectivization and Consistent Condom Use Among Female Sex Workers in Southern India: Evidence from Two Rounds of Behavioral Tracking Surveys

Community collectivization is an integral part of condom use and HIV risk reduction interventions among key population. This study assesses community collectivization among female sex workers (FSWs), and explores its relationship with sex workers' consistent condom use (CCU) with different partners considering the interaction effect of time and collectivization. Data were drawn from two rounds of cross-sectional surveys collected during 2010 (N1 = 1986) and 2012 (N2 = 1973) among FSWs in Andhra Pradesh, India. Results of the multiple logistic regression analysis show that, CCU with regular and occasional clients increased over the inter-survey period among FSWs with a high collective efficacy (AOR 2.9 and 6.1) and collective agency (AOR 14.4 and 19.0) respectively. The association of high levels of collectivization with CCU and self-efficacy for condom use are central to improve the usefulness and sustainability of HIV prevention programs worldwide.

Standard of Care for Neuropsychological Monitoring in Pediatric Neuro-Oncology: Lessons From the Children's Oncology Group (COG)

As the mortality of pediatric cancers has decreased, focus on neuropsychological morbidities of treatment sequelae have increased. Neuropsychological evaluations are essential diagnostic tools that assess cognitive functioning and neurobiological integrity. These tests provide vital information to support ongoing medical care, documenting cognitive morbidity and response to interventions. We frame standards for neuropsychological monitoring of pediatric patients with CNS malignancy or who received cancer-directed therapies involving the CNS and discuss billing for these services in the United States in the context of clinical research. We describe a cost-effective, efficient model of neuropsychological monitoring that may increases access to neuropsychological care.

Correlates of Mental Depression Among Female Sex Workers in Southern India

Mental health is an integral part of overall health status but has been a largely neglected issue in the developing world especially among female sex workers (FSWs). This study examines the prevalence and correlates of major depression among FSWs in southern India. Major depression was assessed using Patient Health Questionnaire-2 depression scale data from a cross-sectional Behavioral Tracking Survey, 2010-2011 conducted among FSWs (n = 1986) in Andhra Pradesh, a state in southern India. Almost two-fifths of FSWs (39%) reported major depression. Multivariate logistic regression analysis shows a significant association between major depression and the following characteristics for FSWs: low autonomy, alcohol use, experience of violence, police arrest, inconsistent condom use with clients, mobility for sex work, and being HIV positive or not wanting to disclose HIV status. Research and advocacy efforts are needed to ensure that the mental health issues of marginalized groups are appropriately addressed in HIV prevention programs.

Bioadhesive films containing fluconazole for mucocutaneous candidiasis

Fluconazole is a broad spectrum antifungal agent that has been extensively applied for the management of oral, pharyngeal and cutaneous candidiasis. Fluconazole has a high volume of distribution (0.55–0.65 l/kg) and has systemic toxicity due to high drug-drug interaction. The present study focuses on the formulation of bioadhesive film as a controlled release carrier for fluconazole. The formulation was intended to provide localized delivery of fluconazole exclusively at the site of infection, thereby reducing its total dose and hence, dose-related toxicities. Bioadhesive films were prepared by solvent casting method using sodium alginate and polyvinyl alcohol alone as well as in various combinations. Prepared films were evaluated for physical characteristics like, weight and content uniformity, film thickness, swelling index, microenvironment pH and folding endurance. In vitro drug release, in vitro and ex vivo residence time, bioadhesive strength and skin irritation were also studied. Accelerated stability study was conducted on the optimized formulation as per ICH guidelines. Weight of all the films were not more than 20 mg. Thickness of the films ranged between 0.09 to 0.15 mm whereas swelling indices showed a high extent of variation. Films composed of polyvinyl alcohol alone provided a swelling index of 6%. Bioadhesive strength was found to be more than 18 g. Microenvironment pH was near to 7.0 for most of the formulations. Ex vivo residence time of optimized batch was more than 5 h and it provided controlled drug release up to 8 h. As revealed in FT-IR and DSC studies, drug was found to be compatible with the excipients used in this study.

Pharmacology of AMG 181, a human anti-α4 β7 antibody that specifically alters trafficking of gut-homing T cells

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

AMG 181 is a human anti-α4 β7 antibody currently in phase 1 and 2 trials in subjects with inflammatory bowel diseases. AMG 181 specifically targets the α4 β7 integrin heterodimer, blocking its interaction with mucosal addressin cell adhesion molecule-1 (MAdCAM-1), the principal ligand that mediates α4 β7 T cell gut-homing.

EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

We studied the in vitro pharmacology of AMG 181, and the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of AMG 181 after single or weekly i.v. or s.c. administration in cynomolgus monkeys for up to 13 weeks.

KEY RESULTS

AMG 181 bound to α4 β7 , but not α4 β1 or αE β7 , and potently inhibited α4 β7 binding to MAdCAM-1 (but not vascular cell adhesion molecule-1) and thus inhibited T cell adhesion. Following single i.v. administration, AMG 181 Cmax was dose proportional from 0.01 to 80 mg·kg(-1) , while AUC increased more than dose proportionally. Following s.c. administration, dose-proportional exposure was observed with single dose ranging from 5 to 80 mg·kg(-1) and after 13 weekly doses at levels between 20 and 80 mg·kg(-1) . AMG 181 accumulated two- to threefold after 13 weekly 80 mg·kg(-1) i.v. or s.c. doses. AMG 181 had an s.c. bioavailability of 80%. The linear elimination half-life was 12 days, with a volume of distribution close to the intravascular plasma space. The mean trend for the magnitude and duration of AMG 181 exposure, immunogenicity, α4 β7 receptor occupancy and elevation in gut-homing CD4+ central memory T cell count displayed apparent correlations.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

AMG 181 has in vitro pharmacology, and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic and safety characteristics in cynomolgus monkeys that are suitable for further investigation in humans.

Role of a community-to-community learning strategy in the institutionalization of community mobilization among female sex workers in India

Introduction

The institutionalization of community mobilization is not well understood in literature. This paper aims to understand the role of the community-to-community learning strategy in the institutionalization of community mobilization among sex workers communities across eight districts of Andhra Pradesh, India.

Materials and Methods

Data collected during baseline (March, 2010) and endline (June, 2012) under an HIV prevention project (SAKSHAM project) was used to investigate the strength (as score) of community mobilization based on two learning strategies: non-government organization (NGO)-to-community-based organization (CBO) strategy, and community-to-CBO strategy. The strength of community mobilization was assessed based on different parameters. The change in scores were computed as a percentage of the improvement to the total potential improvement from baseline to endline on specific indicators and overall.

Results

Most of the CBOs considered in the pre-post assessment had been registered during 2004–2008. At baseline, the community ownership and preparedness index scores for the eight CBOs under the community-to-CBO strategy ranged between 21.5 and 27.7 while the scores for the three CBOs under the NGO-to-CBO strategy ranged between 16.3 and 21.5. By endline, the strength of community mobilization among CBOs under the community-to-CBO strategy increased 18 points (equivalent to 23% potential improvement) whereas the strength of community mobilization among CBOs under the NGO-to-CBO strategy increased only 10 points (equivalent to 13% potential improvement). The average percentage difference in improvement between the strategies was 10% (p = 0.102). Further analyses indicate that a greater improvement in community-to-CBO learning strategy was noted around managerial capacities and engagement with stakeholders than other parameters.

Conclusion

The community –to- CBO learning strategy presents promising results for HIV prevention with regard to institutionalization of community mobilization among sex workers communities. Findings support the scaling-up of community mobilization initiatives within HIV prevention interventions using well trained community members in India and elsewhere.

Prognostic utility of hypothermic machine perfusion in deceased donor renal transplantation

Pulsatile pump perfusion of kidney transplants is known to decrease delayed graft function (DGF) and improve 1 year graft survival when compared to static cold preservation. Kidneys with better flow and resistance parameters on perfusion are likely to have a better post transplant function. These parameters are commonly used to evaluate kidneys being considered for transplantation. This study assesses the time frame for a kidney within which it reaches optimal perfusion parameters. All kidneys pumped between 5/2006 and 9/2009 on a Lifeport© kidney transporter at our local organ procurement agency were studied. 190 kidneys were evaluated and then divided into two groups based on whether terminal flows increased or declined after prolonged perfusion. All kidneys were assessed for changes in flow (F), resistance (R) and temperature at 15 minute intervals. Discards, DGF and one year graft survival were noted. The Student paired t test and Chi-square analysis were used to compare data. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to study independent predictors of DGF on pump perfusion.

RESULTS

For all kidneys, the mean initial flow was 59 ± 35 mL/min which improved to an average flow of 128 ± 38 mL/min with continued perfusion. The maximal flow and terminal flows were 148 ± 51 and 135 ± 38 mL/min respectively. The flows at 2, 4, and 6 hours was 125 ± 41, 128 ± 42 and 130 ± 39 mL/min respectively. Kidneys that improved on continued perfusion had a significantly lower discard rate (20 vs 34% p < 0.05), but a higher incidence of DGF (64 vs 39%, P < .05). One year graft loss (death censored) was comparable in the two groups. (4/42 vs. 3/33, P = .94). Resistance at 2, 4, and 6 hours was predictive of DGF, as was donor anoxia and cerebrovascular accident (CVA) as the cause of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Kidneys on pulsatile pump perfusion tend to show improved flows and decreased resistance over time. The average flow for a kidney is reached by 2 hours. Those kidneys that start with lower flow rates that improve after 2 hours with continued perfusion are less likely to be discarded but are still associated with a greater incidence of delayed graft function. Resistance at 2 hours predicts DGF while initial resistance predicts one year graft survival.

Effect of increased pressure during pulsatile pump perfusion of deceased donor kidneys in transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Pulsatile pump perfusion of potential kidneys for transplantation is known to decrease the rate of delayed graft function (DGF) and improve their 1-year survival. Flow and resistance parameters are often used to determine the suitability of kidneys for transplantation. Kidneys with low flow rates are often subjected to higher pressures to improve flow. This study evaluated the effect of higher pump pressures on posttransplant renal function.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 73 deceased donor kidneys preserved using pump perfusion (LifePort) at our center between May 2006 and September 2009. We calculated the mean pump pressure (MP) for the duration of perfusion of each kidney, using systolic pressure (SP) and diastolic pressure (DP) readings with the following formula: (MP = DP + 1/3 (SP - DP). The kidneys were divided into a low (LP; n = 49) and a high-pressure group (HP; n = 24) based on a MP cutoff value of 23 mm Hg. The two groups were then compared for differences in perfusion dynamics and primary endpoints including DGF and 1-year graft survival. Statistical analysis was performed using paired Student t test and chi-square analysis.

RESULTS

The two groups were comparable for donor age, extended criteria, sensitization, and cold ischemic times. They differed significantly in higher initial (0.65 ± 0.4 versus 0.4 ± 0.2, P = .01), average (0.25 ± 0.08 versus 0.18 ± 0.06, P = .0006), and terminal resistance (0.21 ± 0.07 versus 0.17 ± 0.06, P = .008) of HP versus LP kidneys. Flow rates were comparable between the two groups. DGF was higher in HP kidneys (75% versus 40%, P = .006) with similar 1-year graft survival (87.5% versus 89%, P = .7).

CONCLUSIONS

Perfusate flow through a kidney can be improved by increasing pressure settings to overcome elevated resistance. This maneuver was not associated with a lower rate of DGF after transplantation. One-year graft survival remained unaffected.

Structural and electrical characterization of Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures grown by metal-organic chemical vapor deposition

We characterize nanostructures of Bi(2)Se(3) that are grown via metal-organic chemical vapor deposition using the precursors diethyl selenium and trimethyl bismuth. By adjusting growth parameters, we obtain either single-crystalline ribbons up to 10 μm long or thin micrometer-sized platelets. Four-terminal resistance measurements yield a sample resistivity of 4 mΩ·cm. We observe weak antilocalization and extract a phase coherence length l(ϕ) = 178 nm and spin-orbit length l(so) = 93 nm at T = 0.29 K. Our results are consistent with previous measurements on exfoliated samples and samples grown via physical vapor deposition.

Global longitudinal strain is a strong independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with aortic stenosis

AIMS

To assess the capacity of global longitudinal strain (GLS) in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) to (i) detect the subclinical left ventricular (LV) dysfunction [LV ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥50% patients]; (ii) predict all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) (all patients), and (iii) provide incremental prognostic information over current risk markers.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with AS (n = 146) and age-matched controls (n = 12) underwent baseline echocardiography to assess AS severity, conventional LV parameters and GLS via speckle tracking echocardiography. Baseline demographics, symptom severity class and comorbidities were recorded. Outcomes were identified via hospital record review and subject/physician interview. The mean age was 75 ± 11, 62% were male. The baseline aortic valve (AV) area was 1.0 ± 0.4 cm(2) and LVEF was 59 ± 11%. In patients with a normal LVEF (n = 122), the baseline GLS was controls -21 ± 2%, mild AS -18 ± 3%, moderate AS -17 ± 3% and severe AS -15 ± 3% (P< 0.001). GLS correlated with the LV mass index, LVEF, AS severity, and symptom class (P< 0.05). During a median follow-up of 2.1 (inter-quartile range: 1.8-2.4) years, there were 20 deaths and 101 MACE. Unadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for GLS (per %) were all-cause mortality (HR: 1.42, P< 0.001) and MACE (HR: 1.09, P< 0.001). After adjustment for clinical and echocardiographic variables, GLS remained a strong independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.38, P< 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

GLS detects subclinical dysfunction and has incremental prognostic value over traditional risk markers including haemodynamic severity, symptom class, and LVEF in patients with AS. Incorporation of GLS into risk models may improve the identification of the optimal timing for AV replacement.

Progression of aortic stenosis in elderly patients over long-term follow up

BACKGROUND

The natural history of aortic stenosis (AS) in elderly patients remains poorly defined. In an elderly cohort over long-term follow-up, we assessed: 1) rates and predictors of hemodynamic progression and 2) composite aortic valve replacement (AVR) or death endpoint.

METHODS

Consecutive Department of Veterans' Affairs patients with AS (>60 years) were prospectively enrolled between 1988 and 1994 (n=239) and followed until 2008. Patients with ≥ 2 trans-thoracic echocardiograms >6 months apart were included in the progression analysis (n=147). Baseline demographics, comorbidities and echocardiography parameters were recorded. Follow-up was censored at AVR/death.

RESULTS

The age of patients was 73 ± 6 years; 82% were male. Baseline AS severity was mild (67%), moderate (23%) and severe (10%). Follow-up was 6.5 ± 4 years (range: 1-17 years). Annualized mean aortic valve gradient progression rates were: mild AS 4 ± 4 mmHg/year; moderate AS 6 ± 5 mmHg/year and severe AS 10 ± 8 mmHg/year (p<0.001). Five-year event-free survival was 66 ± 5%, 23 ± 7% and 20 ± 10% for mild, moderate and severe AS respectively. Progression to severe AS occurred in 35% and 74% of patients with mild and moderate AS respectively. Independent predictors of rapid progression were: baseline AS severity (per grade) (OR 2.6, p=0.001), aortic valve calcification (per grade) (OR 2.1, p=0.01), severe renal impairment (OR 4.0, p=0.04) and anemia (OR 2.3, p=0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly patients, hemodynamic progression of AS is predicted by AS severity, renal function, aortic valve calcification and history of anemia. These factors identify patients at high risk of rapid hemodynamic progression, for whom more frequent clinical and echocardiographic surveillance is advisable.

Chronic kidney disease: cardiac and renal angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) 2 expression in rats after subtotal nephrectomy and the effect of ACE inhibition

Renin-angiotensin system blockade slows but does not prevent the cardiovascular complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) 2 is differentially regulated in acute kidney injury, with increased cardiac ACE2 but decreased kidney ACE2 levels. This study investigated the effect of long-term ACE inhibition on cardiac and renal ACE2 in rats with CKD induced by subtotal nephrectomy (STNx). Sprague-Dawley rats had sham (control) or STNx surgery. Control rats received vehicle (n = 9) and STNx rats ramipril (1 mg kg(-1) day(-1); n = 10) or vehicle (n = 10) for 28 days. Subtotal nephrectomy resulted in impaired creatinine clearance (P < 0.05), proteinuria (P < 0.05), renal fibrosis (P < 0.05) and reduced renal cortical ACE2 mRNA (P < 0.05) and activity (P < 0.05). In rats with CKD, ramipril improved creatinine clearance (P < 0.05) and was associated with an increase in cortical but not medullary ACE2 activity (P < 0.05). Compared with control rats, STNx rats were hypertensive (P < 0.01), with increased left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP; P < 0.01), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH; P < 0.05) and interstitial (P < 0.05) and perivascular fibrosis (P < 0.01). In rats with CKD, ramipril decreased blood pressure (P < 0.001) and reduced LVEDP (P < 0.01), LVH (P < 0.01) and perivascular fibrosis (P < 0.05) but did not significantly reduce interstitial fibrosis. There was no change in cardiac ACE2 in rats with CKD compared with control rats. In rats with CKD, ACE inhibition had major benefits to reduce blood pressure and cardiac hypertrophy and to improve creatinine clearance, but did not significantly impact on cardiac ACE2, cardiac interstitial fibrosis, renal fibrosis or proteinuria. Thus, in rats with CKD, renal ACE2 deficiency and lack of activation of cardiac ACE2 may contribute to the progression of cardiac and renal tissue injury. As long-term ACE inhibition only partly ameliorated the adverse cardio-renal effects of CKD, adjunctive therapies that lead to further increases in ACE2 activity may be needed to combat the cardio-renal complications of CKD.

Regional leptomeningeal score on CT angiography predicts clinical and imaging outcomes in patients with acute anterior circulation occlusions

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The regional leptomeningeal score is a strong and reliable imaging predictor of good clinical outcomes in acute anterior circulation ischemic strokes and can therefore be used for imaging based patient selection. Efforts to determine biological determinants of collateral status are needed if techniques to alter collateral behavior and extend time windows are to succeed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective Institutional Review Board-approved study of patients with acute ischemic stroke and M1 middle cerebral artery+/- intracranial internal carotid artery occlusion at our center from 2003 to 2009. The rLMC score is based on scoring pial and lenticulostriate arteries (0, no; 1, less; 2, equal or more prominent compared with matching region in opposite hemisphere) in 6 ASPECTS regions (M1-6) plus anterior cerebral artery region and basal ganglia. Pial arteries in the Sylvian sulcus are scored 0, 2, or 4. Good clinical outcome was defined as mRS ≤ 2 at 90 days.

RESULTS

The analysis included 138 patients: 37.6% had a good (17-20), 40.5% a medium (11-16), and 21.7% a poor (0-10) rLMC score. Interrater reliability was high, with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77%-0.95%). On univariate analysis, no single vascular risk factor was associated with the presence of poor rLMCs (P ≥ .20 for all comparisons). In multivariable analysis, the rLMC score (good versus poor: OR, 16.7; 95% CI, 2.9%-97.4%; medium versus poor: OR, 9.2, 95% CI, 1.7%-50.6%), age (< 80 years), baseline ASPECTS (≥ 8), and clot burden score (≥ 8) were independent predictors of good clinical outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

The rLMC score is a strong imaging parameter on CT angiography for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute ischemic strokes.

Neuropsychological differences between survivors of supratentorial and infratentorial brain tumours

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between brain tumour location and core areas of cognitive and behavioural functioning for paediatric brain tumour survivors. The extant literature both supports and refutes an association between paediatric brain tumour location and neurocognitive outcomes. We examined neuropsychological test data to identify any differences in neurocognitive and behavioural profile associated with supratentorial versus infratentorial tumour location.

METHODS

Following Institutional Review Board approval, the medical records and neuropsychological test data collected between 1997 and 2002 for 70 children treated for brain tumour at Children's Hospital Los Angeles were reviewed. Fifty-one per cent of the participants had tumours located in the supratentorial regions of the brain, whereas 49% had infratentorial tumours. Primary medical treatments involved tumour resection (90%), cranial radiation therapy (76%), chemotherapy (71%), and 59% all three medical procedures. The two tumour location groups did not differ significantly in the cumulative treatment dose of irradiation to the tumour bed or in the dose delivered to the whole brain. Neuropsychological test data included measures of verbal and non-verbal intellectual functioning, attention/working memory, processing speed, verbal and visual memory, fine motor skills, visual-motor integration, academic achievement, and social-emotional functioning. Differences between the two groups were evaluated using anova, t-tests and chi-squared statistical tests.

RESULTS

The supratentorial and infratentorial tumour location groups did not differ on measures of intellectual functioning. However, survivors of infratentorial tumours performed more poorly on selected measures of more specific cognitive functions and on parent-report of social-emotional functioning relative to survivors of supratentorial tumours, even when age at diagnosis was held as a covariate. Higher frequency of auditory deficits was noted in the infratentorial tumour group and was associated with lowered academic achievement scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The differences by location found in more specific neurocognitive and social-emotional variables, after controlling for age at diagnosis, may possibly reflect tumour location-specific effects. However, this interpretation remains tentative given the limitations in our study and inability to control for the range of medical and treatment-related factors that may have contributed towards the outcomes observed in our sample. At the same time, most of our findings appear consistent with reports from recent studies in this area.