Association between living in the endemic area and level of knowledge of visceral leishmaniasis

BACKGROUND

Iran is a country with a high prevalence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and seven endemic provinces. In this study, we tried to identify unobserved classes of knowledge among Iranians toward VL and assess the predictors of each latent class.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected participants from endemic and non-endemic areas of VL in Iran in 2020 and 2021. The collected data included demographic characteristics and questions about knowledge, attitude, and practice toward VL. We performed latent class analysis using a procedure for latent class analysis (PROC LCA) in SAS to identify the class membership of knowledge of participants toward VL.

RESULTS

Five latent classes were identified: very low (38.9%), low (15.5%), moderate (6.2%), high (14.1%), and very high (25.2%) knowledge about VL. Living in endemic areas significantly increased the odds of belonging to the low (adjusted OR (AOR = 7.23; 95% confidence interval (CI):4.52-11.58), high (AOR = 2.71; 95%CI: 1.73-4.23), and very high (AOR = 8.47; 95%CI: 5.78-12.41) classes compared to the very low class. Also, having academic education increased the odds of membership in the very high class (AOR = 2.36; 95%CI: 1.61-3.47) compared to the very low class.

CONCLUSION

This study revealed that more than 50% of the participants fell into the latent classes of very low and low knowledge toward VL. Some educational workshops in the endemic areas could be effective in enhancing knowledge about VL.

Characteristics of suicide attempts in Northwestern Iran: a five-year population-based survey

BACKGROUND

Suicide is a serious public health problem in the world. This study aims to describe the characteristics of suicide attempters in North-Western Iran and identify latent classes of suicide attempts.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in Ardabil Province (Northwest Iran) during 2017-2021 based on a registration system for suicide attempts. We performed latent class analysis (LCA) using a procedure for LCA (PROC LCA) in SAS to investigate the subgroups of suicide attempters based on their characteristics and method, history, and outcome of suicide.

RESULTS

Three latent classes were identified for males and females; the first class (non-lethal attempters with lower educational levels) comprised 41.3% of males and 55.4% of females. The second class (non-lethal attempters with higher educational levels) described 52.4% of males and 42.7% of females. Finally, the third class (lethal attempters) included 6.4% of males and 1.9% of females. The main method of suicide attempts was poisoning with medications (87.3%). The results show that only 2.8% of people have a history of suicide attempts. Also, the suicide rate reached 8.26 per 100,000 population in 2021.

CONCLUSION

The present study showed an increasing trend of suicide attempt incidence rate in Ardabil Province from 2017 (99.49 per 100,000 population) to 2021 (247.41 per 100,000 population). This means that the rate of change was 147.92 per 100,000 population during the study period. The findings of LCA, stress the necessity of identification and prioritization of unmet needs of people who had an incomplete suicide in Ardabil.

The COVID-19 pandemic's true death toll in Iran after two years: an interrupted time series analysis of weekly all-cause mortality data

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to investigate overall and age group/region/sex-specific excess all-cause mortality from the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran until February 2022.

METHODS

Weekly all-cause mortality data were obtained for the period March 2015 until February 2022. We conducted interrupted time series analyses, using a generalized least-square regression model to estimate excess mortality after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this approach, we estimated the expected post-pandemic death counts based on five years of pre-pandemic data and compared the results with observed mortality during the pandemic.

RESULTS

After the COVID-19 pandemic, we observed an immediate increase (1,934 deaths per week, p = 0.01) in weekly all-cause mortality. An estimated 240,390 excess deaths were observed in two years after the pandemic. Within the same period, 136,166 deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19. The excess mortality was greatest among males compared with females (326 versus 264 per 100k), with an increasing trend by age group. There is a clear increased excess mortality in the central and northwestern provinces.

CONCLUSION

We found that the full mortality burden during the outbreak has been much heavier than what is officially reported, with clear differences by sex, age group, and geographical region.

The probability of diagnostic delays for tuberculosis and its associated risk factors in northwest Iran from 2005 to 2016: a survival analysis using tuberculosis surveillance data

OBJECTIVES

Early diagnosis is essential for effective tuberculosis (TB) control programs. Therefore, this study examined the risk of delays in TB diagnosis and associated factors in Ardabil Province in northwest Iran from 2005 to 2016.

METHODS

This longitudinal retrospective cohort study was conducted using data obtained from the Iranian National Tuberculosis Control Program at the provincial level between 2005 and 2016. The total delay in diagnosis was defined as the time interval (days) between the onset of symptoms and TB diagnosis. Survival analysis was conducted to analyze the delay in diagnosis. Associated factors were identified using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 1,367 new TB cases were identified. The 12-year median diagnostic delay was 45 days (interquartile range [IQR], 30-87). The annual median diagnostic delay decreased from 68 days (IQR, 33-131) in 2005 to 31 days (IQR, 30-62) in 2016. The probability of a delay in TB diagnosis decreased by 5.0% each year (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.07). Residence in a non-capital county (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.92) and referral from the private health system (HR, 0.74%; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.84) were significantly associated with an increased risk of delay in TB diagnosis over the 12-year study period.

CONCLUSIONS

The median delay decreased during the study period. We identified factors associated with a longer delay in TB diagnosis. These findings may be useful for further TB control plans and policies in Iran.

Health beliefs and behaviors of livestock industry workers regarding Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Northwest of Iran

Background

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an acute, feverous disease that is caused by tick bites or humans’ direct contact with the blood and tissues of infected livestock and humans. The transmission of the disease is also possible via human-to-human contacts and nosocomial transmission is well described. The majority of patients suffering from this disease are slaughterhouse workers (including butchers), farmers, veterinarians and hospital staff. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the health behaviors of butchers regarding CCHF and study factors affecting such behaviors based on the health belief model.

Methods

This is a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted on 500 butchers in Ardabil Province in 2020 by a multistage sampling method. The participants of the study completed the researcher-made questionnaire of health belief model and health behaviors model relevant to CCHF. The collected data were then analyzed by descriptive statistical tests and linear regression analysis.

Results

The mean (SD) age of the participants was 44.4 (10.5) years, and 96% were males. Only 11.1% of the participants displayed acceptable disease-preventive behaviors. The validity and reliability of the developed questionnaire were confirmed. The results of the exploratory factor analysis showed that the constructs of the model explained 84% of the total variance. The results of the study revealed that among the variables of the health belief model, perceived susceptibility (p-value = 0.006, β = 0.152) and perceived barriers (p-value = 0.023, β = 0.14) were the strongest factors predicting disease-preventive behaviors regarding CCHF.

Conclusion

The results of the study showed that the health belief model can predict preventive behaviors for CCHF. Therefore, designing and executing interventions based on the results of this study may encourage such preventive behaviors in butchers.

Latent class analysis of initial nicotine dependence among adult waterpipe smokers

Waterpipe (WP) tobacco smoking increases the risk of smoking-related health problems. In this study, we sought to identify the unobserved class memberships of WP-associated initial nicotine dependence (ND) symptoms and assess the predictors of each latent class. This cross-sectional study was conducted among a convenience sample of 900 current (past 30-day) WP smokers who were recruited from 94 WP-serving venues surrounding Tehran and Ardebil metropolitans in Iran. All participants completed a self-administrated questionnaire. We performed latent class analysis using PROC LCA in SAS to identify class memberships of initial ND symptoms using 10-item Hooked on Nicotine Checklist. Five latent classes were identified as non-dependent (25.4 %), low dependent (7.1 %), low-moderate dependent (19.6 %), moderate dependent (15.6 %), and high dependent (32.2 %). Using flavored WP tobacco significantly increased the odds of belonging to low-moderate dependent class [adjusted OR (aOR) = 1.89; 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.07-3.34] compared to non-dependent class. Also, having academic education decreased the odds of belonging to low-moderate dependent (aOR = 0.43; 95 %CI: 0.26-0.67) and moderate dependent (aOR = 0.39; 95 %CI: 0.23-0.67) class in comparison to non-dependent class. Also, WP smoking initiation at an older age was associated with belonging to high dependent (OR = 2.05; 95 %CI: 1.39-3.03) class compared to non-dependent. This study revealed that nearly half of WP smokers fell under moderate and high-dependent classes. Our findings showed that some items of HONC had more role in the clustering of participants based on ND symptoms. The WP-specific cessation programs and targeted clinical trials should consider the diversity of ND levels among smokers to achieve successful quit rates among these smokers. Additionally, limiting flavors would be a strong strategy to limit the rate of ND, especially among young people who are eager to smoke flavored WP tobacco.

Characteristics of flavored and non-flavored waterpipe tobacco users: a real-world setting study

We aimed to compare sociodemographic characteristics, smoking patterns, beliefs and perceptions, nicotine dependence, and psychological indicators between flavored waterpipe (WP) tobacco (FWT) and non-flavored WP tobacco (non-FWT) smokers in Iran. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 94 WP-serving venues surrounding Tehran and Ardabil metropolitans in Iran. Convenience sampling was applied to select 900 current WP smokers [508 (56%) FWT-only and 392 (44%) non-FWT-only smokers] aged 18 years and older. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent characteristics of FWT and non-FWT smokers. Compared to non-FWT smokers, FWT smokers were younger (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87-0.90) and more likely to have ≥ 1 sibling who smoked WP (AOR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.06-2.24), share WP with others (AOR=2.52, 95% CI: 1.68-3.77), report current cigarette smoking (AOR=2.05, 95% CI: 1.23-3.42), and report confidence in quitting at any time (AOR=3.64, 95% CI: 2.45-5.39). FWT smokers were less likely to have seen (AOR=0.40, 95% CI: 0.27-0.60) or read (AOR=0.44, 95% CI: 0.24-0.80) warning messages on WP tobacco packages relative to non-FTW smokers. The most common self-reported reason for smoking WP was entertainment for both groups, followed by stress relief for non-FWT smokers and the escape from loneliness for FWT smokers. FWT-only smokers differ from non-FWT-only smokers in several aspects including being younger, having more positive beliefs and perceptions regarding WP use, and having higher cigarette smoking prevalence. These findings will help in developing more effective and targeted policies and cessation interventions for WP smokers according to flavor type they use, especially in the Middle East.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A Comprehensive Database and Geographical Distribution Model of Vectors and Vector Borne Diseases in Ardabil Province, Borderline of Iran and Azerbaijan Republic 2001-2018

Background

Vector borne diseases (VBDs) are the infectious diseases reported from all parts of the world and Iran. The main vectors of VBDs belong to the phylum of arthropod and insects. The aim of this study was providing the database of important VBDs and vectors and geographical distribution model in Ardabil, northwest of Iran.

Methods

This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted from 2001-2018. All the earlier published studies, reports and documentations related to vectors and vector-borne diseases searched systematically as well as the data of diseases was collected from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) of Ardabil University of Medical Sciences. ArcGIS 10.4.2 (http://www.esri.com/arcgis) were used to spatial analysis mapping, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) index and high/low clustering.

Results

Totally 110076 cases of VBDs reported in Ardabil Province during the past 18 years including malaria, visceral leishmaniasis (VL), cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), tick-borne relapsing fever (TRF), pediculosis, scorpionism, scabies and anthrax. These diseases were transmitted in Ardabil Province by eight arthropod families, 19 genera and 70 spices of arthropods. Most species belonged to Culicidae with 24 species followed by Psycodidae with 22 and Ixodidae with 16 species. The incidence rate of VBDs was 63/100000 in 2001 which decreased to 7/100000 in 2010 and then increased to 21 /100000 in 2018.

Conclusion

The distribution model of the VBDs was plotted based on the geographical and ecological of the vectors will help the authorities for decision.

COVID-19 and beliefs about tobacco use: an online cross-sectional study in Iran

There is mixed evidence surrounding the relationship between tobacco use and COVID-19 infection/progression. The current study investigates beliefs and tobacco use behaviors and COVID-19 infection among a sample of smokers and never-smokers. Data were collected using an online survey distributed through Telegram, a cloud-based social media networking application in Iran from April 1 to May 31, 2020. The study participants included never-smokers (n = 511), current (past-month) waterpipe smokers (n = 89), current cigarette smokers (n = 158), and ex-smokers (n = 172). Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare tobacco use groups with never- smokers on beliefs, controlling for potential confounders. The study participants (n = 944) was mostly male (64%), had > high school education (76%), and lived in an urban area (91%), with mean ± SD age of 35.3 ± 10.8. Key findings of this study are that compared with never-smokers: (1) cigarette smokers were less likely to believe that smoking cigarette can lead to spreading COVID-19; (2) waterpipe smokers were more likely to believe that smoking waterpipe at home was a safe practice, that waterpipe protects against COVID-19, and smoking waterpipe may lead to a more rapid recovery from COVID-19; (3) both waterpipe and cigarette smokers believed that using e-cigarettes in public places was a safe practice during the COVID-19 pandemic; and (4) more than half of the ex-smokers stopped smoking due to COVID-19 and most of them planned to continue abstaining from smoking after the pandemic. Our findings underscore the need to raise awareness about the unsupported claims of a lower hazard of using tobacco products or possible protective effects against COVID-19 and to promote cessation programs.

Epidemiological characteristics and mortality risk factors among COVID-19 patients in Ardabil, Northwest of Iran

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease highly contagious, is prevalent in all age and sex groups infecting the respiratory system. The present study seeks to investigate the epidemiology and effective factors in mortality of patients with COVID-19 in Ardabil province, northwestern Iran.

METHODS

In a retrospective study, the hospitalized patients with laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 between February to August 2020 were enrolled. The data registration portal was designated according to Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education guidelines. In this portal, demographic information, clinical presentation, laboratory and imaging data were registered for patients in all hospitals in the same format. The Hosmer-Lemeshow strategy was used for variable selection in a multiple model.

RESULTS

Of the patients involved 2812(50.3%) were male and 150 (2.7%) had contact with a confirmed case of COVID-19 in the last 14 days. Pre-existing comorbidity was reported in 1310 (23.4%) patients. Of all patients, 477(8.5%) died due to COVID-19. the result of the multiple logistic regression model indicated that after adjusting for other factors, higher age (OR = 3.11), fever or chills (OR = 1.61), shortness of breath (OR = 1.82), fatigue (OR = 0.71), headache (OR = 0.64), runny nose (OR = 1.54), Skeletal muscle pain (OR = 1.53), hospitalization (OR = 5.66), and hospitalization in ICU (OR = 5.12) were associated with death.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalization had the strongest effect on mortality followed by hospitalization in ICU, and higher age. This study showed that having some extra-pulmonary symptoms in contrast with pulmonary symptoms can predict as good prognostic factors.

Pattern of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever related high risk behaviors among Iranian butchers and its relation to perceived self-efficacy

Background

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is highly fatal to humans and an acute viral disease. The CCHF disease has been reported in occupations such as butchers, slaughterhouse butchers and workers. The aim of this study was to investigate the pattern of CCHF related high risk behaviors among butchers and determine the effects of perceived self-efficacy of the participants on their membership in latent classes.

Methods

The participants of this cross-sectional study were recruited from all the meat distribution centers in Ardabil Province in 2019–2020. The LCA approach was used to observe the CCFH related high risk behaviors patterns.

Results

The statistical significance level was assigned at P-value < 0.05 in all the analyses. Three latent classes were identified; namely, 1) low risk (16.1%), 2) high risk (53.6%), and 3) very high risk (30.2%). After adjusting for other possible confounders higher score of perceived self-efficacy significantly decrease the odds of membership in high risk class (OR = 0.74) and very high risk class (OR = 0.62) compared to the low risk class. Also, age (OR = 1.07) and experience (OR = 0.91) associate with very high risk class.

Conclusions

This study revealed the co-occurrence of CCHF related high risk behaviors in the majority of workers in the livestock and meat industry. It is necessary to provide butchers and slaughterhouse workers with general education, force them to use protective equipment and investigate the rate of tick bites in risky occupations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10333-7.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial autocorrelation and epidemiological survey of visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic area of Azerbaijan region, the northwest of Iran

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a common infectious disease that is endemic in Iran. This study aimed to investigate the spatial autocorrelation of VL in the northwest of Iran. In this cross-sectional study, the data of all patients were collected in 2009–2017 and analyzed by SPSS23 and Moran's and General G Index. The MaxEnt3.3.3 software was used to determine the ecological niche. A big hot spot area was identified in five counties in the northwest of Iran. More than 70% of the cases were reported from these regions, and the incidence rate increased in the northwest of Iran from 2013 to 2017. Seasonal rainfall and average daily temperature were the most important climate variables affecting the incidence of VL in this region (p < 0.05). Therefore, it can be concluded that VL in the northwest of Iran is expanding to new areas along the border with the Republic of Azerbaijan, and the northeastern section of this region is a high-risk area.

Forecasting head lice (Pediculidae: Pediculus humanus capitis) infestation incidence hotspots based on spatial correlation analysis in Northwest Iran

Background and Aim

Pediculus humanus capitis has been prevalent throughout the world, especially in developing countries among elementary students and societies with a weak socio-economic status. This study aimed to forecast head lice (Pediculidae: P. capitis) infestation incidence hotspots based on spatial correlation analysis in Ardabil Province, Northwest Iran.

Materials and Methods

In this retrospective analytical study, all cases of head lice infestations who were confirmed by Centers for Disease Control office have been studied from 2016 to 2018. Head lice infestation incidence hotspots in the province should be detected based on general G statistics in ArcMap GIS10.4.1. Furthermore, MaxEnt.3.3.3 model was used for modeling the high-risk areas.

Results

The prevalence rate of pediculosis was 14.90/100,000 populations. The general G statistics revealed that the head lice infestation in this study area has a high cluster pattern. The analysis showed that the Parsabad and Germi counties were identified as a head lice infestation incidence hotspots. Statistical and spatial analyses of head lice infestation incidence showed a significant positive correlation with head lice infestation incidence hotspots and the altitudes (15-500 m), annual temperature range (14-16.5°C), and slope and average diurnal temperature (12-18°C).

Conclusion

The results of this study showed that the most ecologically suitable areas of head lice occurrence were identified in two hotspots (Parsabad and Germi) in the Northern areas of Ardabil Province (Parsabad and Germi counties); in the borderline of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan.

The Relationship Between Obesity, Overweight, and the Human Development Index in World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region Countries

OBJECTIVES

Obesity is regarded as one of the most prominent health threats worldwide and a serious risk factor for non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes mellitus type 2, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and some types of cancer. Given the role that societal development-as reflected by the Human Development Index (HDI)-may play in the prevalence of obesity and overweight, this study aimed to investigate the degree to which the prevalence of obesity and overweight is affected by HDI and its components.

METHODS

In this ecological study, the required data on HDI and its components were gathered from the latest report of the United Nations Development Program, and data on obesity and overweight were acquired from the latest reports published on the World Health Organization website. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS version 24.0.

RESULTS

The prevalence of obesity was determined to be significantly higher among females than males, and the gross national index per capita was found to be significantly higher for males than females (p<0.05). Significant positive correlations were found between HDI and its components and sex, as well as indices of obesity and overweight.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant positive correlation exists between HDI and obesity. As policy-makers attempt to improve the general welfare of the people, they should be aware of potential unwanted effects of development on the risk of obesity and overweight among the population.

Ecological Niche Modeling of West Nile Virus Vector in Northwest of Iran

OBJECTIVES

West Nile virus (WNV) is a microorganism and the leading cause of the spread of fatal diseases in horses, birds, and humans. The etiologic agent of West Nile fever belongs to the genus Flavivirus that is transmitted by Culex mosquitoes in Iran and throughout the world. We aimed to evaluate the distribution of WNV vectors in northwest of Iran ecological niche modeling.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in Ardabil province in one year, from January to December with the samples captured from May to November 2017. Forty-five locations from all 10 counties of the province were selected randomly to determine the seasonal activity of mosquitoes. Larval collection was carried out twice a month. MaxEnt version 3.3, ArcMap 10.3 software, jackknife, and crew methods were used to determine the impact of climatic change and environmental factors on the distribution of mosquito species.

RESULTS

A total of 2000 larva were collected, 1789 (89.5%) of which were Culex larvae. Seven species of Culex genus were identified, including Culex pipiens, Cx. modestus, Cx. theileri, Cx. hortensis, Cx. perexiguus, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, and Cx. mimeticus. Two important ecological niche areas were identified in the north and south of the province. The annual temperature and rainfall in the cold seasons were the most important factors affecting the distribution of Culex species larva. Cx. pipiens was identified as the main vector of WNV vectors with high frequency in Ardabil province.

CONCLUSIONS

Two large areas were found as the ecological niches of larvae of these species. It is recommended that additional investigations be carried out on infection in adult female Cx. pipiens and its hosts in these areas.

Causes of conflict between clinical and administrative staff in hospitals

BACKGROUND

Providing the high-quality services in hospitals depends on to minimize conflict between all members within a health team. This study aimed to identify the causes of conflicts experienced by clinical and administrative staff in hospitals.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out in 2018. The sample included 320 clinical and administrative staff from six hospitals affiliated to Ardabil University of Medical Sciences that were selected using two-step clustering sampling method. Data collection was accomplished by self-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistics, t-test, and ANOVA were used for data analysis.

RESULTS

Total conflict score revealed that clinical staff had higher levels of perceived conflict than administrative staff. In terms of organizational position, the study results showed a significant difference in the reported conflict between nurse groups and other groups (physicians and paramedical, administrative, financial, and logistic staff). The most important causes of conflict in the viewpoint of clinical staff were organizational and job characteristics (3.54 ± 1.28), poor management (3.51 ± 1.12), and inefficient communication system (3.42 ± 1.33). For administrative staff, on the other hand, poor management (3.18 ± 1.33), inefficient communication system (3.17 ± 1.36), and attitudes and perceptions (3.06 ± 1.41) were shown to be paramount factors.

CONCLUSION

Clinical and administrative staff of hospitals are like parts of a train track. The irrational relationship between them will result in distortion and lower quality of services. Therefore, effective strategies to decrease staffs' experience of conflict need to be developed. This might create a healthier and more productive work environment which positively affects the care quality.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Referral system in rural Iran: improvement proposals

Because of insufficient communication between primary health care providers and specialists, which leads to inefficiencies and ineffectiveness in rural population health outcomes, to implement a well-functioning referral system is one of the most important tasks for some countries. Using purposive and snowballing sampling methods, we included health experts, policy-makers, family physicians, clinical specialists, and experts from health insurance organizations in this study according to pre-determined criteria. We recorded all interviews, transcribed and analyzed their content using qualitative methods. We extracted 1,522 individual codes initially. We also collected supplementary data through document review. From reviews and summarizations, four main themes, ten subthemes, and 24 issues emerged from the data. The solutions developed were: care system reform, education system reform, payment system reform, and improves in culture-building and public education. Given the executive experience, the full familiarity, the occupational and geographical diversity of participants, the solutions proposed in this study could positively affect the implementation and improvement of the referral system in Iran. The suggested solutions are complementary to each other and have less interchangeability.

Assessing the quality of referral letters written by general practitioners: a cross-sectional study in rural Iran

Establishing effective communication between general practitioners (GPs) and medical specialists is a key component of the referral system. Written communication between GPs and medical specialists is the most common communication tool. This study was conducted to evaluate quality (information content) of the referral letters written by GPs and addressed to gynecologists and cardiologists. We evaluated quality of the referral letters through a cross-sectional study in the villages of Sarab city, located in East Azerbaijan Province, Northwest Iran. The study was conducted during August and September 2015 in which a total of 400 referral letters were evaluated according to specific quality criteria. Cluster sampling was implemented and data were collected using an instrument designed by the Department of Family Medicine at the University of Manitoba, Canada. A specifically designed referral form was used to refer pregnant women to gynecologists. Referrals addressed to gynecologists showed better quality in comparison to cases referred to cardiologists. Legibility of referral letters was 73%. It is recommended that agreed-upon referral letters be designed cooperatively for different groups of diseases. Furthermore, primary health care providers should be trained to write proper referral letters.

Prognostic Factors for Survival in Patients with Gastric Cancer using a Random Survival Forest

Background:

Gastric cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the third top cause of cancer related death with about 1 million new cases and 700,000 deaths in 2012. The aim of this investigation was to identify important factors for outcome using a random survival forest (RSF) approach.

Materials and Methods:

Data were collected from 128 gastric cancer patients through a historical cohort study in Hamedan-Iran from 2007 to 2013. The event under consideration was death due to gastric cancer. The random survival forest model in R software was applied to determine the key factors affecting survival. Four split criteria were used to determine importance of the variables in the model including log-rank, conversation?? of events, log-rank score, and randomization. Efficiency of the model was confirmed in terms of Harrell’s concordance index.

Results:

The mean age of diagnosis was 63 ±12.57 and mean and median survival times were 15.2 (95%CI: 13.3, 17.0) and 12.3 (95%CI: 11.0, 13.4) months, respectively. The one-year, two-year, and three-year rates for survival were 51%, 13%, and 5%, respectively. Each RSF approach showed a slightly different ranking order. Very important covariates in nearly all the 4 RSF approaches were metastatic status, age at diagnosis and tumor size. The performance of each RSF approach was in the range of 0.29-0.32 and the best error rate was obtained by the log-rank splitting rule; second, third, and fourth ranks were log-rank score, conservation of events, and the random splitting rule, respectively.

Conclusion:

Low survival rate of gastric cancer patients is an indication of absence of a screening program for early diagnosis of the disease. Timely diagnosis in early phases increases survival and decreases mortality.

E-referral Solutions: Successful Experiences, Key Features and Challenges- a Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

around the world health systems constantly face increasing pressures which arise from many factors, such as an ageing population, patients and providers demands for equipment's and services. In order to respond these challenges and reduction of health system's transactional costs, referral solutions are considered as a key factor. This study was carried out to identify referral solutions that have had successes.

METHODS

relevant studies identified using keywords of referrals, consultation, referral system, referral model, referral project, electronic referral, electronic booking, health system, healthcare, health service and medical care. These searches were conducted using PubMed, ProQuest, Google Scholar, Scopus, Emerald, Web of Knowledge, Springer, Science direct, Mosby's index, SID, Medlib and Iran Doc data bases. 4306 initial articles were obtained and refined step by step. Finally, 27 articles met the inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

we identified seventeen e-referral systems developed in UK, Norway, Finland, Netherlands, Denmark, Scotland, New Zealand, Canada, Australia, and U.S. Implemented solutions had variant degrees of successes such as improved access to specialist care, reduced wait times, timeliness and quality of referral communication, accurate health information transfer and integration of health centers and services.

CONCLUSION

each one of referral solutions has both positive and changeable aspects that should be addressed according to sociotechnical conditions. These solutions are mainly formed in a small and localized manner.