The Role of Metacognitive Beliefs in Predicting Academic Procrastination Among Students in Iran: Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Academic procrastination is a challenge that many students face. Metacognitive beliefs are the main cause of academic procrastination because they are one of the main reasons for students' academic failure or progress.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine whether and to what extent academic procrastination could be predicted based on students' metacognitive beliefs.

METHODS

This descriptive cross-sectional study involved 300 students selected via stratified random sampling. Data were collected using the Procrastination Assessment Scale for Students and the Metacognition Questionnaire-30. The data analysis was done using the Pearson correlation coefficient and regression analysis to estimate the correlation coefficient and predictability of academic procrastination based on metacognitive beliefs.

RESULTS

A significant negative correlation was observed between the subscale of positive beliefs of concern and academic procrastination (r=-0.16; P<.001). In addition, the metacognitive beliefs of the participants predicted 10% of academic procrastination. The component of positive metacognitive beliefs with the β value of 0.45 negatively and significantly predicted the students' academic procrastination (P<.001), whereas the component of negative metacognitive beliefs with the β value of .39 positively and significantly predicted the students' academic procrastination (P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Metacognitive beliefs can predict students' academic procrastination. Therefore, the modification of metacognitive beliefs to reduce procrastination is suggested.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Hidden Curriculum Challenges in Learning Professional Ethics Among Iranian Medical Students: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

Medical ethics is a vital quality for the doctors which has been seriously taken into consideration in recent years. Identifying the factors affecting medical ethics may help to develop more effective ways to promote this quality in medical education. This study was aimed to explain the challenges of hidden curriculum in learning the professional ethics among Iranian medical students.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This qualitative study was performed on 15 medical interns of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences in 2019 using grounded theory (GT). Sampling was started by purposive sampling and continued through theoretical sampling until complete data saturation. Data collection and analysis were done simultaneously. Data were interpreted by the constant comparative method according to Strauss and Corbin's approach.

RESULTS

The results showed that the challenges of hidden curriculum for learning the professional ethics by medical students included a number of key concepts. Analyzing these concepts and taking into account the commonalities, we obtained six subthemes using a reduction inductive method, the main theme of which was "the challenge of hidden curriculum in learning the professional medical ethics". The subthemes included "decreased interest in medicine", "false beliefs", "curriculum weakness", "materialism and economic problems", "avoidance of responsibility", and "underlying problems of the medical profession".

CONCLUSION

The findings indicated six challenges in the hidden curriculum for learning the professional medical ethics. These challenges can be considered a threat or an obstacle to achieving the goals of professional ethics. Therefore, curriculum planners, education policymakers, and teachers should plan and implement the professional ethics curriculum based on these factors.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The role of hidden curriculum in the formation of professional ethics in Iranian medical students: A qualitative study

INTRODUCTION

Professionalism and medical ethics are a vital quality for doctors, which has been taken into account seriously in recent years. Perception of the factors affecting professionalism may help develop more efficient approaches to promote this quality in medical education. This study was aimed to explain the role of hidden curriculum in the formation of professional ethics in Iranian medical students.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This qualitative study was performed on 15 medical interns of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences in 2019, using grounded theory. Sampling was started by purposive sampling and continued through theoretical sampling until complete data saturation. Data collection and analysis were done simultaneously. Data were interpreted by a constant comparative method according to Strauss and Corbin's approach.

RESULTS

The analysis of the participants' interviews and reduction of findings using common themes yielded one class and four categories as well as a number of concepts as the role of hidden curriculum in the formation of professional ethics in medical students. The categories included the role of modeling in the formation of professional ethics, role of education in the formation of professional ethics, role of environmental factors in the formation of professional ethics, and role of personal and inherent attributes in the formation of professional ethics.

CONCLUSION

Curriculum developers and medical education authorities need to proceed in line with the findings of the present study to provide a proper learning environment, in which the modeling, learning, and teaching conditions and supportive environmental atmosphere are taken into account in accordance with the inherent and individual characteristics of the learners in order to guarantee the formation of professional ethics in medical students.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Extraction and determination of heavy metals in soil and vegetables irrigated with treated municipal wastewater using new mode of dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction based on the solidified deep eutectic solvent followed by GFAAS

BACKGROUND

In this research, a new extraction method based on dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction and the solidification of deep eutectic solvent has been developed for the determination of heavy metals in soil and vegetables prior to their analysis by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS). In this method, a green solvent consisting of 1-decyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride and 1-undecanol was used as an extraction solvent, yielding the advantages of material stability, low density and a suitable freezing point near room temperature.

RESULTS

Under optimal conditions, enrichment factors are in the range of 114-172. The calibration graphs are linear in the range of 0.02-200 µg kg^-1 and limits of detection are in the range of 0.01-0.03 µg kg^-1 . Repeatability and reproducibility of the method based on seven replicate measurements of 0.80 µg kg^-1 of Hg and 0.20 µg kg^-1 of Pb and Cd in analyzed samples were in the range of 2.3-4.1% and 3.7-6.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A new deep eutectic solvent consists of two parts: 1-decyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride and 1-undecanol in a molar ratio of 1:2. The accuracy of the proposed procedure was also assessed by determining the concentration of the studied metal ions in a polluted farmland soil standard reference material. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Data for professional socialization and professional commitment of nursing students - A case study: Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Iran

Nursing students by professional socialization could catch the necessary professional commitment in this carrier. In addition, by solving the problem and having a specific and certain discipline could have act as a nurse. The aim of this study is evaluating the relation between professional socialization and professional commitment of nursing students in Kermanshah University of medical sciences (KUMS), Kermanshah, Iran. This research is a descriptive-analytical study that the investigated population were all the nursing students of KUMS, which were 80 persons and all of them were considered as a samples of this study. The collecting data were the professional socialization tool of Chao et al. (1994) and the professional commitment scale of Mayer and Alen (1996). The raw data analyzed by SPSS software (Ver.21). The Spearman test results have showed that there was no significant relation between professional socialization and professional commitment in nurses. The results of Spearman test for evaluating the relation of demographic variable and professional commitment was showed that there was no significant relation between gender, marital status and individuals age with their professional socialization. The overall results of this research was represent the weak relation between professional socialization and professional commitment of nursing students in KUMS, which this fact could decrease the caring quality efficiency. Therefore, the authorities must take necessary measures to accelerate the process of socialization and professional status of nurses.

Knowledge, attitude and practices of farmers about pesticide use, risks, and wastes; a cross-sectional study (Kermanshah, Iran)

This study was aimed to investigate the knowledge, attitude, and behavior of farmers about the pesticide use and wastes, and to determine the factors affecting the use of pesticides and their health effects, in agricultural lands located in Kermanshah province, western Iran. Three hundred eleven (311) farmers were included in this study, and filled a structured questionnaire containing questions about their basic information, their knowledge and attitude regarding pesticides, and their practices for pesticide disposal. In addition, the type and amount of pesticide consumption, and the health symptoms during the last year were recorded. Prevalence ratios and linear regression were used to evaluate the association between the different factors, and health symptoms and the amount of pesticide use, respectively. The majority of respondents had not been trained formally for the use of pesticides before. Approximately 10%, 45%, and 17% of pesticides contained highly hazardous, moderately hazardous, and slightly hazardous compounds, respectively. The farmers mainly had incorrect knowledge about pesticides and their risks, and used incorrect and high-risk methods for handling and application of pesticides and relevant wastes. Health symptoms were more associated with age ≥ 65, having no education, having income < 482 USD, not trained for pesticide use, and applying highly hazardous pesticides. In addition, the factors contributing to the amount of pesticide use included age, education level, and pesticide training. In order to reduce the amount of pesticide released to the environment, comprehensive training programs and implementing a waste management system could be effective.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Data on the students' body management and ego-identity status at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Iran

Physical attractiveness is one of the topics requiring new standards in the modern age, whereby the relationships between individuals are formed. The present data article aimed to evaluate the students’ body management and ego-identity status at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences (KUMS), Iran in 2017. The statistical population consisted of 4200 students at KUMS. To collection of this dataset, 360 students were selected using the Krejcie and Morgan Sampling Formula, and the sampling method was cluster sampling. As for data collection, the Ego-Identity Status (EOM-EIS) Questionnaire and Multidimensional Body–Self Relations Questionnaire (MBSRQ) were utilized. The obtained data indicated that KUMS students enjoyed proper body management.

Dataset for assessing the professional ethics of teaching by medical teachers from the perspective of students in Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Iran (2017)

The present data article was prepared with the aim of assessing the instructor׳s professional ethics of teaching in Kermanshah Medical Science University from the student׳s perspective in 2017. For this data article, 260 students in Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences (KUMS) were selected by a simple random sampling method. The data collection tool was based on “Ethical principles for college and university teaching” (Murray et al., 1996), teaching professional ethics questionnaire. The obtained data showed that the teachers have an average of (3.74 ± 0.73) in terms of personality characteristic, (3.48 ± 0.75) for dominating on content, (3.64 ± 0.64) in terms of dominating on teaching practices, (3.65 ± 0.63) for understanding the different learner׳s aspects, (3.65 ± 0.71) in terms of teaching assessment and 4.41 ± 0.78 for observing the educational regulations. These evaluated data were higher than the average level. The acquired data have shown that the instructors teaching professional ethic were higher than the average level, but still it was not ideal. Therefore, preparing and editing the teaching professional ethics charter and putting it in educational content during the teacher׳s service are suggested for the promotion of this status.

A study of staff׳s awareness and attitudes towards the importance of household hazardous wastes (HHW) management (A Case Study of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran)

The present study aimed to assess the levels of staff׳s awareness and attitudes towards the importance of household hazardous wastes (HHW) management at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences (KUMS), Kermanshah, Iran. The awareness and attitudes were measured using a researcher-made questionnaire, which was then completed by 200 personnel at KUMS with different responsibilities. Finally, the data were then analyzed using the SPSS Statistical Software Version 21.0. The results of the present study showed that the average of awareness for man and woman was obtained 19.59 ± 3.53 and 19.88 ± 3.33, respectively. While, the attitude for them was 58.66 ± 9.5 and 61.25 ± 9.8, respectively. In terms of variable "job type", the highest score about awareness and attitude was related to physician (20.45 ± 2.41) and nurse (61.8 ± 9.2) jobs respectively. The highest level of awareness was for those with a diploma degree, while in term of attitude the maximum score was obtained for those who were undergraduate and bachelor degree. Based on age group, minimum and maximum score of awareness were related to 44-53 and 44-53 years, respectively. While in term of attitude were 54-65 and 34-43 years, respectively. According to results, it is suggested that households be trained in separating, recycling, collecting, transporting and disposing of HHWs in accordance with health standards with the aim of providing, maintaining and improving the health of families, societies and environment. It should be noted that prevention of adverse environmental effects of hazardous waste is a priority, which can be realized through applying proper management methods.

Data set on the antibacterial effects of the hydro-alcoholic extract of Ferula assafoetida plant on Listeria monocytogenes

The aim of the collection of the present dataset is to show the antibacterial effects of the hydro-alcoholic extract of Ferula assafoetida plant on Listeria monocytogenes. Firstly, the Ferula assafoetida herb was collected from investigated hills in Gonabad, Khorasan province, Iran. After botanical and pharmocognosy investigation, the hydro-alcoholic extract of this herb was produced using percolation method. Then, its antimicrobial effects, Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) and Minimum Bactericidal Concentration (MBC), were investigated using Disc Diffusion Method and Macro Dilution Method vs. Listeria Monocytogenes, serotypes 4a and 4b, respectively. Also, Ampicillin (10 µg/disc) was used as a reference antimicrobial material. The data showed that MIC and MBC of the Ferula assafoetida extract on Listeria monocytogenes was 7.25 µg/ml and 12.50 µg/ml, respectively. Moreover, the average diameter of the inhibitory zone of extracted hydrolcoholic from Ferula Alliacea plant over Listeria monocytogenes 4a and 4b (30 g/ml) were 16.35 2.5 and 15.87 3.1 mm, respectively, and in order for ampicillin was 24.31 2.45 and 24.31 2.45 mm. The hydro-alcoholic extract produced from Ferula assafoetida can be used as the antibacterial for Listeria Monocytogenes.

Data for interventional role of training in changing the knowledge and attitudes of urban mothers towards food hygiene (A case study of Ravansar Township, Kermanshah, Iran)

Food hygiene is a key factor at the time of production and distribution of food. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the interventional role of education in changing the knowledge and attitudes of urbane mothers towards food hygiene in Ravansar Township, Kermanshah, Iran. To this end, 200 mothers residing in Ravansar Township were selected using simple random sampling. First, the subjects' knowledge and attitudes towards food hygiene were evaluated in a pre-test, and then after holding some educational sessions, the two variables were assessed again in a post-test using a researcher-made questionnaire with 72 questions. The reliability and validity of the questionnaire were evaluated using Cronbach's alpha and content validity, respectively. After completing the questionnaires, the results were analyzed using the SPSS Statistical Software Version 21.0, and all tests were at the significance level of α = 0.05. The results of the present study demonstrated that education did not promote the knowledge of married subjects, those whose use of media was average or high, and the ones aged above 20 (P > 0.05). However, the results showed that education had significant effects on other factors (P < 0.05). In addition, it was revealed that the effects of education on promoting the attitudes of individuals aged above 60, those holding academic education and married subjects were not significant (P > 0.05), Nevertheless, the results revealed that education had significant effects on other factors (P < 0.05). Hence, it can be concluded that education plays a major role in changing the knowledge and attitudes of urban mothers towards food hygiene.

Persistent sample circulation microextraction combined with graphite furnace atomic absorption spectroscopy for trace determination of heavy metals in fish species marketed in Kermanshah, Iran, and human health risk assessment

BACKGROUND

Persistent sample circulation microextraction (PSCME) combined with graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS) was developed as a high pre-concentration technique for the determination of heavy metals in fish species. In this method, a few microliters of organic solvent (40.0 µL carbon tetrachloride) was transferred to the bottom of a conical sample cup. Then 10.0 mL of aqueous solution was transformed to fine droplets while passing through the organic solvent. At this stage, metal-ligand hydrophobic complex was extracted into the organic solvent. After extraction, 20 µL of extraction solvent was injected into the graphite tube using an auto-sampler.

RESULTS

Under optimal conditions, enrichment factors and enhancement factor were in the range of 180-240 and 155-214, respectively. The calibration curves were linear in the range of 0.03-200 µg kg^-1 and the limits of detection (LODs) were in the range of 0.01-0.05 µg kg^-1 . Repeatability (intra-day) and reproducibility (inter-day) for 0.50 µg L^-1 Hg and 0.10 µg L^-1 Cd and Pb were in the range of 3.1-4.2% (n = 7) and 4.3-6.1% (n = 7), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Potential human health risk assessment was conducted by calculating estimated weekly intake (EWI) of the metals from eating fish and comparison of these values with provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) values. EWI data for the studied metals through fish consumption were lower than the PTWI values. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

The availability of health information system for decision-making with evidence-based medicine approach-a case study: Kermanshah, Iran

Evidence-based medicine (EBM) is defining proper and wise use of the best evidence in clinical decision for patient׳s care. This study have done with the aim of evaluating health information system for decision-making with EBM approach in educational hospital of Kermanshah city. The statistical population include all the specialist and specialty, and also head nurses of educational hospitals in Kermanshah city. The data collected by researcher made questionnaire. The content validities of the questionnaire were confirmed by experts to complete the questions of the questionnaire. Then, the reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated using the Cronbach׳s alpha coefficient. The results have showed that the accessibility rate to the internet sources is in desirable level. The results have showed that there was a significant difference at least in one group between the availability of hospital information system EBM establishment in terms of accessing to the internet based data, according to the academic major (P = 0.021). The sufficiency of hospital information system in evidence-based medicine establishment in terms of necessary knowledge for implementing it according to the educational major have showed a significant statistical difference at least in one group (P = 0.001). Kermanshah׳s hospital have a desirable condition in terms of accessibility to the internet sources, knowledge of EBM and its implementation which this have showed the availability of desirable platform for decision-making with the EBM approach. However, it is better to implement regulate educational periods for educating the doctors and nurses in order to reach practical implementation of the EBM approach.

The Effect of Metacognitive Instruction on Problem Solving Skills in Iranian Students of Health Sciences

Background:

Learning requires application of such processes as planning, supervision, monitoring and reflection that are included in the metacognition. Studies have shown that metacognition is associated with problem solving skills. The current research was conducted to investigate the impact of metacognitive instruction on students’ problem solving skills.

Methods:

The study sample included 40 students studying in the second semester at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, 2013-2014. They were selected through convenience sampling technique and were randomly assigned into two equal groups of experimental and control. For the experimental group, problem solving skills were taught through metacognitive instruction during ten two-hour sessions and for the control group, problem solving skills were taught via conventional teaching method. The instrument for data collection included problem solving inventory (Heppner, 1988), which was administered before and after instruction. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire had been previously confirmed. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, mean and standard deviation and the hypotheses were tested by t-test and ANCOVA.

Results:

The findings of the posttest showed that the total mean scores of problem solving skills in the experimental and control groups were 151.90 and 101.65, respectively, indicating a significant difference between them (p<0.001). This difference was also reported to be statistically significant between problem solving skills and its components, including problem solving confidence, orientation-avoidance coping style and personal control (p<0.001). No significant difference, however, was found between the students’ mean scores in terms of gender and major.

Conclusion:

Since metacognitive instruction has positive effects on students’ problem solving skills and is required to enhance academic achievement, metacognitive strategies are recommended to be taught to the students.

Emotional intelligence as a predictor of self-efficacy among students with different levels of academic achievement at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences

INTRODUCTION

studies have indicated that emotional intelligence is positively related to self-efficacy and can predict the academic achievement. The present study aimed to investigate the role of emotional intelligence in identifying self-efficacy among the students of Public Health School with different levels of academic achievement.

METHODS

This correlational study was conducted on all the students of Public Health School. 129 students were included in the study through census method. Data were collected using Emotional Intelligence and self-efficacy questionnaires and analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis by SPSS 14.

RESULTS

The average score of students with high academic achievement was higher in self-efficacy (39.78±5.82) and emotional intelligence (117.07±10.33) variables and their components than that of students with low academic achievement (39.17±5.91, 112.07±13.23). The overall emotional intelligence score to predict self-efficacy explanation was different among students with different levels of academic achievement (p<0.001). Self-efficacy structure was explained through self-awareness and self-motivation components in students with low academic achievement (r=0.571). In students with high academic achievement, self-awareness, self-motivation and social consciousness played an effective role in explaining self-efficacy (r=0.677, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Emotional intelligence and self-efficacy play an important role in achieving academic success and emotional intelligence can explain self-efficacy. Therefore, it is recommended to teach emotional intelligence skills to students with low academic achievement through training workshops.

Clarifying Evidence-Based Medicine in Educational and Therapeutic Experiences of Clinical Faculty Members: A Qualitative Study in Iran

Introduction:

Although evidence-based medicine has been a significant part of recent research efforts to reform the health care system, it requires an assessment of real life community and patient. The present study strives to clarify the concept of evidence-based medicine in educational and therapeutic experiences of clinical faculty members of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences (2014).

Materials and Methods:

It was a qualitative study of phenomenology. The population consists of 12 clinical faculty members of Kermanshah University Medical Sciences. Sampling was carried out using a purposeful method. Sample volume was determined using adequacy of samples’ law. Data gathering occurred through semi-structured interviews. Collaizzi pattern was employed for data interpretation concurrent with data gathering.

Results:

interpreting the data, three main themes were extracted. They include: 1. Unawareness and disuse (unaware of the concept, disuse, referral to colleagues, experiment prescription) 2. Conscious or unconscious use (using journals and scientific websites, aware of the process). 3. Beliefs (belief or disbelief in necessity).

Conclusion:

It sounds essential to change the behavior of clinical faculty members from passive to active with respect to employing evidence-based medicine as well as to alter negative attitudes into positive ones. In so doing, systematic training program aiming at behavior changing is necessary. Also, providing dissent facilities and infrastructures and removing barriers to the use of EBM can be effective.