Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate

Central ideas from thermal biology, including thermal performance curves and tolerances, have been widely used to evaluate how changes in environmental means and variances generate changes in fitness, selection and microevolution in response to climate change. We summarize the opportunities and challenges for extending this approach to understanding the consequences of extreme climatic events. Using statistical tools from extreme value theory, we show how distributions of thermal extremes vary with latitude, time scale and climate change. Second, we review how performance curves and tolerances have been used to predict the fitness and evolutionary responses to climate change and climate gradients. Performance curves and tolerances change with prior thermal history and with time scale, complicating their use for predicting responses to thermal extremes. Third, we describe several recent case studies showing how infrequent extreme events can have outsized effects on the evolution of performance curves and heat tolerance. A key issue is whether thermal extremes affect reproduction or survival, and how these combine to determine overall fitness. We argue that a greater focus on tails-in the distribution of environmental extremes, and in the upper ends of performance curves-is needed to understand the consequences of extreme events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments.

Lizards fail to plastically adjust nesting behavior or thermal tolerance as needed to buffer populations from climate warming

Although observations suggest the potential for phenotypic plasticity to allow adaptive responses to climate change, few experiments have assessed that potential. Modeling suggests that Sceloporus tristichus lizards will need increased nest depth, shade cover, or embryonic thermal tolerance to avoid reproductive failure resulting from climate change. To test for such plasticity, we experimentally examined how maternal temperatures affect nesting behavior and embryonic thermal sensitivity. The temperature regime that females experienced while gravid did not affect nesting behavior, but warmer temperatures at the time of nesting reduced nest depth. Additionally, embryos from heat-stressed mothers displayed increased sensitivity to high-temperature exposure. Simulations suggest that critically low temperatures, rather than high temperatures, historically limit development of our study population. Thus, the plasticity needed to buffer this population has not been under selection. Plasticity will likely fail to compensate for ongoing climate change when such change results in novel stressors.

Temperature extremes: geographic patterns, recent changes, and implications for organismal vulnerabilities

Extreme temperatures can injure or kill organisms and can drive evolutionary patterns. Many indices of extremes have been proposed, but few attempts have been made to establish geographic patterns of extremes and to evaluate whether they align with geographic patterns in biological vulnerability and diversity. To examine these issues, we adopt the CLIMDEX indices of thermal extremes. We compute scores for each index on a geographic grid during a baseline period (1961-1990) and separately for the recent period (1991-2010). Heat extremes (temperatures above the 90th percentile during the baseline period) have become substantially more common during the recent period, particularly in the tropics. Importantly, the various indices show weak geographic concordance, implying that organisms in different regions will face different forms of thermal stress. The magnitude of recent shifts in indices is largely uncorrelated with baseline scores in those indices, suggesting that organisms are likely to face novel thermal stresses. Organismal tolerances correlate roughly with absolute metrics (mainly for cold), but poorly with metrics defined relative to local conditions. Regions with high extreme scores do not correlate closely with regions with high species diversity, human population density, or agricultural production. Even though frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events have - and are likely to have - major impacts on organisms, the impacts are likely to be geographically and taxonomically idiosyncratic and difficult to predict.

Morphological and physiological determinants of local adaptation to climate in Rocky Mountain butterflies

Flight is a central determinant of fitness in butterflies and other insects, but it is restricted to a limited range of body temperatures. To achieve these body temperatures, butterflies use a combination of morphological, behavioural and physiological mechanisms. Here, we used common garden (without direct solar radiation) and reciprocal transplant (full solar radiation) experiments in the field to determine the thermal sensitivity of flight initiation for two species of Colias butterflies along an elevation gradient in the southwestern Rocky Mountains. The mean body temperature for flight initiation in the field was lower (24-26°C) than indicated by previous studies (28-30°C) in these species. There were small but significant differences in thermal sensitivity of flight initiation between species; high-elevation Colias meadii initiated flight at a lower mean body temperature than lower-elevation Colias eriphyle. Morphological differences (in wing melanin and thoracic setae) drive body temperature differences between species and contributed strongly to differences in the time and probability of flight and air temperatures at flight initiation. Our results suggest that differences both in thermal sensitivity (15% contribution) and in morphology (85% contribution) contribute to the differences in flight initiation between the two species in the field. Understanding these differences, which influence flight performance and fitness, aids in forecasting responses to climate change.

How Extreme Temperatures Impact Organisms and the Evolution of their Thermal Tolerance

SynopsisUnderstanding the biological impacts of extreme temperatures requires translating meteorological estimates into organismal responses, but that translation is complex. In general, the physiological stress induced by a given thermal extreme should increase with the extreme's magnitude and duration, though acclimation may buffer that stress. However, organisms can differ strikingly in their exposure to and tolerance of a given extreme temperatures. Moreover, their sensitivity to extremes can vary during ontogeny, across seasons, and among species; and that sensitivity and its variation should be subject to selection. We use a simple quantitative genetic model and demonstrate that thermal extremes-even when at low frequency-can substantially influence the evolution of thermal sensitivity, particularly when the extremes cause mortality or persistent physiological injury, or when organisms are unable to use behavior to buffer exposure to extremes. Thermal extremes can drive organisms in temperate and tropical sites to have similar thermal tolerances despite major differences in mean temperatures. Indeed, the model correctly predicts that Australian Drosophila should have shallower latitudinal gradients in thermal tolerance than would be expected based only on gradients in mean conditions. Predicting responses to climate change requires understanding not only how past selection to tolerate thermal extremes has helped establish existing geographic gradients in thermal tolerances, but also how increasing the incidence of thermal extremes will alter geographic gradients in the future.

Biological Impacts of Thermal Extremes: Mechanisms and Costs of Functional Responses Matter

Thermal performance curves enable physiological constraints to be incorporated in predictions of biological responses to shifts in mean temperature. But do thermal performance curves adequately capture the biological impacts of thermal extremes? Organisms incur physiological damage during exposure to extremes, and also mount active compensatory responses leading to acclimatization, both of which alter thermal performance curves and determine the impact that current and future extremes have on organismal performance and fitness. Thus, these sub-lethal responses to extreme temperatures potentially shape evolution of thermal performance curves. We applied a quantitative genetic model and found that beneficial acclimatization and cumulative damage alter the extent to which thermal performance curves evolve in response to thermal extremes. The impacts of extremes on the evolution of thermal performance curves are reduced if extremes cause substantial mortality or otherwise reduce fitness differences among individuals. Further empirical research will be required to understand how responses to extremes aggregate through time and vary across life stages and processes. Such research will enable incorporating passive and active responses to sub-lethal stress when predicting the impacts of thermal extremes.

Resolving the life cycle alters expected impacts of climate change

Recent models predict contrasting impacts of climate change on tropical and temperate species, but these models ignore how environmental stress and organismal tolerance change during the life cycle. For example, geographical ranges and extinction risks have been inferred from thermal constraints on activity during the adult stage. Yet, most animals pass through a sessile embryonic stage before reaching adulthood, making them more susceptible to warming climates than current models would suggest. By projecting microclimates at high spatio-temporal resolution and measuring thermal tolerances of embryos, we developed a life cycle model of population dynamics for North American lizards. Our analyses show that previous models dramatically underestimate the demographic impacts of climate change. A predicted loss of fitness in 2% of the USA by 2100 became 35% when considering embryonic performance in response to hourly fluctuations in soil temperature. Most lethal events would have been overlooked if we had ignored thermal stress during embryonic development or had averaged temperatures over time. Therefore, accurate forecasts require detailed knowledge of environmental conditions and thermal tolerances throughout the life cycle.

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes.

Elevational differences in developmental plasticity determine phenological responses of grasshoppers to recent climate warming

Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change.

Geographic divergence in upper thermal limits across insect life stages: does behavior matter?

Insects with complex life cycles vary in size, mobility, and thermal ecology across life stages. We examine how differences in the capacity for thermoregulatory behavior influence geographic differences in physiological heat tolerance among egg and adult Colias butterflies. Colias adults exhibit differences in morphology (wing melanin and thoracic setal length) along spatial gradients, whereas eggs are morphologically indistinguishable. Here we compare Colias eriphyle eggs and adults from two elevations and Colias meadii from a high elevation. Hatching success and egg development time of C. eriphyle eggs did not differ significantly with the elevation of origin. Egg survival declined in response to heat-shock temperatures above 38-40 °C and egg development time was shortest at intermediate heat-shock temperatures of 33-38 °C. Laboratory experiments with adults showed survival in response to heat shock was significantly greater for Colias from higher than from lower elevation sites. Common-garden experiments at the low-elevation field site showed that C. meadii adults initiated heat-avoidance and over-heating behaviors significantly earlier in the day than C. eriphyle. Our study demonstrates the importance of examining thermal tolerances across life stages. Our findings are inconsistent with the hypothesis that thermoregulatory behavior inhibits the geographic divergence of physiological traits in mobile stages, and suggest that sessile stages may evolve similar heat tolerances in different environments due to microclimatic variability or evolutionary constraints.

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats.

Elevational clines in the temperature dependence of insect performance and implications for ecological responses to climate change

To what extent is insect hopping and feeding performance, which constrains the ability to obtain and assimilate resources, thermally adapted along an elevation gradient? Does temperature dependence vary between populations and species and can differences account for individualistic responses to past climate change? We investigate these questions for three species of grasshoppers along a Rocky Mountain elevation gradient. All species and populations exhibit warm adaptation for consumption and digestion, with only modest inter- and intra-specific differences. Species differ substantially in the temperature of peak hopping performance. Low-elevation populations of the warm-adapted species exhibit the highest performance at high temperatures and the lowest performance at low temperatures. Developmental plasticity influences the temperature dependence of performance; grasshoppers reared at higher temperatures perform better at higher temperatures and possess broader thermal tolerance. We fitted thermal performance curves to examine whether performance shifts can account for changes in abundance between initial surveys in 1958-1960 and recent surveys since 2006. All species and populations are able to achieve greater feeding rates now. Estimated shifts in hopping performance vary between species and along the elevation gradient. The cool-adapted species has experienced declines in hopping performance, particularly at the lower elevation sites, while the warm-adapted species has experienced increases in performance concentrated at higher elevations. These estimated performance shifts broadly concur with observed abundance shifts. Performance metrics may have a greater potential to elucidate differential responses to climate change between populations and species than coarser and oft-used proxies, such as thermal tolerance. Assessing performance directly when temperature dependence varies between processes such as the acquisition and assimilation of energy may be essential to understanding population- and species-level impacts.

Can terrestrial ectotherms escape the heat of climate change by moving?

Whether movement will enable organisms to alleviate thermal stress is central to the biodiversity implications of climate change. We use the temperature-dependence of ectotherm performance to investigate the fitness consequences of movement. Movement to an optimal location within a 50 km radius will only offset the fitness impacts of climate change by 2100 in 5 per cent of locations globally. Random movement carries an 87 per cent risk of further fitness detriment. Mountainous regions with high temperature seasonality (i.e. temperate areas) not only offer the greatest benefit from optimal movement but also the most severe fitness consequences if an organism moves to the wrong location. Doubling dispersal capacity would provide modest benefit exclusively to directed dispersers in topographically diverse areas. The benefits of movement for escaping climate change are particularly limited in the tropics, where fitness impacts will be most severe. The potential of movement to lessen climate change impacts may have been overestimated.