Development and internal validation of clinical prediction models for outcomes of complicated intra-abdominal infection

BACKGROUND

Complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients with cIAI in a multicentre study and to develop clinical prediction models (CPMs) to help identify patients at risk of mortality or relapse.

METHODS

A multicentre observational study was conducted from August 2016 to February 2017 in the UK. Adult patients diagnosed with cIAI were included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop CPMs for mortality and cIAI relapse. The c-statistic was used to test model discrimination. Model calibration was tested using calibration slopes and calibration in the large (CITL). The CPMs were then presented as point scoring systems and validated further.

RESULTS

Overall, 417 patients from 31 surgical centres were included in the analysis. At 90 days after diagnosis, 17.3 per cent had a cIAI relapse and the mortality rate was 11.3 per cent. Predictors in the mortality model were age, cIAI aetiology, presence of a perforated viscus and source control procedure. Predictors of cIAI relapse included the presence of collections, outcome of initial management, and duration of antibiotic treatment. The c-statistic adjusted for model optimism was 0.79 (95 per cent c.i. 0.75 to 0.87) and 0.74 (0.73 to 0.85) for mortality and cIAI relapse CPMs. Adjusted calibration slopes were 0.88 (95 per cent c.i. 0.76 to 0.90) for the mortality model and 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) for the relapse model; CITL was -0.19 (95 per cent c.i. -0.39 to -0.12) and - 0.01 (- 0.17 to -0.03) respectively.

CONCLUSION

Relapse of infection and death after complicated intra-abdominal infections are common. Clinical prediction models were developed to identify patients at increased risk of relapse or death after treatment, these now require external validation.

92 Clinical Frailty Scoring Is Crucial For the COVID-19 Era and Beyond

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic placed a new focus on provision of clinical resources. With high mortality and limited capacity; appropriate decisions to escalate to critical care were vital for just resource allocation but also to prevent harm where interventions would not change outcomes. NICE guidance highlighted Clinical frailty scoring (CFS) as central to the decision-making process. 1, Despite initial criticism, recent evidence has confirmed increasing CFS as an independent risk factor to inpatient mortality in COVID-19.2 We conducted a quality improvement project with the aim of improving CFS documentation at the Royal Free Hospital.

Methods

We reviewed the notes of 71 inpatients over the age of 65 years from 6 wards on 08/05/20–12/05/20 for both a CFS score documentation and clear treatment escalation plan at time points of initial clerking, post-take and following ward admission with an audit standard of 100%. We developed teaching sessions, promoted the CFS mobile application, developed a post-take sticker and an elderly medicine ward admission proforma. We re-audited 66 inpatient notes from the same 6 wards from 25/06/20–07/07/20.

Results

Documentation.of CFS improved from 7% to 17% for clerking and post-take and from 13% to 24% on the ward admission. The number of patients with treatment escalation plans was 50%.

Conclusion

CFS is crucial for the COVID-19 era and beyond. We have demonstrated that increased awareness improves use of CFS, though it is not yet being widely used in escalation decisions. 1. Covid-19 Rapid guideline: Critical Care in adults. NICE guideline [NG159]: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng159 Accessed July 2020 2. Hewitt J et al (2020): The effect of frailty on survival in patients with COVID -19 (COPE): a multicentre, European, observational cohort study; The Lancet: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30146-8.

An Independent Validation of the EEG-Based Complex Trial Protocol with Autobiographical Data and Corroboration of its Resistance to a Cognitively Charged Countermeasure

The Complex Trial Protocol (CTP) is a P300-based Concealed Information Test (CIT). The theoretical underpinnings of the CIT in the context of law enforcement usage are sound. The CTP is said to effectively discriminate individuals who recognize novel and meaningful stimuli and to be countermeasure resistant. Forty-five undergraduate students were assigned to three groups and instructed to perform a computer task using autobiographical data in connection to a mock burglary script. P300 peak-to-peak amplitude differences between probe (surname) and irrelevant (patronymic foils) items accurately identified 100% (14/14) of Innocent Controls (IC), 94% (15/16) of Simply Guilty (SG) participants, and 93% (14/15) of Guilty Countermeasure (GCM) subjects who were asked to counter all stimuli by mentally counting backwards continuously during their test presentation. Increased number of mistakes during the test, from combined cognitive erroneous responses to pop quizzes and behavioral errors with button presses, significantly discriminated GCM from IC and SG individuals. GCM participants committed more errors than IC and SG which did not differ from one another. Reaction Time (RT) was only significant between GCM and IC groups. Implications for forensic issues are discussed.

Development of a coronavirus disease 2019 nonhuman primate model using airborne exposure

Airborne transmission is predicted to be a prevalent route of human exposure with SARS-CoV-2. Aside from African green monkeys, nonhuman primate models that replicate airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 have not been investigated. A comparative evaluation of COVID-19 in African green monkeys, rhesus macaques, and cynomolgus macaques following airborne exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was performed to determine critical disease parameters associated with disease progression, and establish correlations between primate and human COVID-19. Respiratory abnormalities and viral shedding were noted for all animals, indicating successful infection. Cynomolgus macaques developed fever, and thrombocytopenia was measured for African green monkeys and rhesus macaques. Type II pneumocyte hyperplasia and alveolar fibrosis were more frequently observed in lung tissue from cynomolgus macaques and African green monkeys. The data indicate that, in addition to African green monkeys, macaques can be successfully infected by airborne SARS-CoV-2, providing viable macaque natural transmission models for medical countermeasure evaluation.

Adding team-based financial incentives to the Carrot Rewards physical activity app increases daily step count on a population scale: a 24-week matched case control study

Background

Mobile health applications (mHealth apps) targeting physical inactivity have increased in popularity yet are usually limited by low engagement. This study examined the impact of adding team-based incentives (Step Together Challenges, STCs) to an existing mHealth app (Carrot Rewards) that rewarded individual physical activity achievements.

Methods

A 24-week quasi-experimental study (retrospective matched pairs design) was conducted in three Canadian provinces (pre-intervention: weeks 1–12; intervention: weeks 13–24). Participants who used Carrot Rewards and STCs (experimental group) were matched with those who used Carrot Rewards only (controls) on age, gender, province and baseline mean daily step count (±500 steps/d). Carrot Rewards users earned individual-level incentives (worth $0.04 CAD) each day they reached a personalized daily step goal. With a single partner, STC users could earn team incentives ($0.40 CAD) for collaboratively reaching individual daily step goals 10 times in seven days (e.g., Partner A completes four goals and Partner B completes six goals in a week).

Results

The main analysis included 61,170 users (mean age = 32 yrs.; % female = 64). Controlling for pre-intervention mean daily step count, a significant difference in intervention mean daily step count favoured the experimental group (p < 0.0001; η_p² = 0.024). The estimated marginal mean group difference was 537 steps per day, or 3759 steps per week (about 40 walking min/wk). Linear regression suggested a dose-response relationship between the number of STCs completed (app engagement) and intervention mean daily step count (adjusted R² = 0.699) with each new STC corresponding to approximately 200 more steps per day.

Conclusion

Despite an explosion of physical activity app interest, low engagement leading to small or no effects remains an industry hallmark. In this paper, we found that adding modest team-based incentives to the Carrot Rewards app increased mean daily step count, and importantly, app engagement moderated this effect. Others should consider novel small-teams based approaches to boost engagement and effects.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-020-01043-1.

A Lifespan Model of Ethnic-Racial Identity

The current paper presents a lifespan model of ethnic-racial identity (ERI) from infancy into adulthood. We conceptualize that ethnic-racial priming during infancy prompts nascent awareness of ethnicity/race that becomes differentiated across childhood and through adulthood. We propose that the components of ERI that have been tested to date fall within five dimensions across the lifespan: ethnic-racial awareness, affiliation, attitudes, behaviors, and knowledge. Further, ERI evolves in a bidirectional process informed by an interplay of influencers (i.e., contextual, individual, and developmental factors, as well as meaning-making and identity-relevant experiences). It is our goal that the lifespan model of ERI will provide important future direction to theory, research, and interventions.

PERSISTENT CONCERNS: QUESTIONS FOR RESEARCH ON ETHNIC-RACIAL IDENTITY DEVELOPMENT

Research on ethnic-racial identity (ERI) and its development has increased exponentially over the past decade. In this paper we discuss five questions that the Lifespan ERI Study Group grappled with in our effort propose a lifespan model of ERI: (1) When does ERI development begin and end? (2) How do we account for age-dependent and contextually-initiated factors in ERI? (3) Should there be a reference point for healthy ERI, and if so, what is it? (4) How do the multiplicities of identity (intersectionality, multiracialism, whiteness) figure into our conceptualization of ERI? (5) How do we understand the role of ERI in pursuit of equity, diversity, and social justice? We note that these are persistent questions in ERI research, and thus our goal is to present our collective reckoning with these issues as well as our ponderings about why they persist. We conclude with recommendations forthe kinds of research questions, designs, and methods that developmental science, in particular, needs to pursue.

Suicide among immigrants in Germany

AIMS

The identification of high-risk groups is crucial in public health suicide prevention approaches. This study aims to compare suicide risks of Germans with nine of the largest immigrant populations living in Germany.

METHODS

Based on a German national database of mortality statistics, the number of suicides in Germans and immigrants was available for the study period (2000 - 2017), stratified for gender and age groups. Standard mortality ratios (SMR) for suicide were computed since age distributions differed between populations. Moreover, SMR of immigrant populations were correlated with potential risk and resilience factors.

RESULTS

The analysed dataset covers a period of 18 years, which translates to over 1.47 billion life years (LY) and 206,056 recorded suicides. 134,971,779 LY (10.1%) and 8,936 (4.3%) suicides were assigned to non-German citizens. SMR, calculated for nine of the largest immigrant populations, were lower compared with the German reference population ranging from 0.24 (Greek nationality) to 0.86 (Russian nationality). SMR in immigrants was highest in adolescents and declined with age. SMR was associated with country of origin (CO) suicide rates as well as with socio-economic factors of immigrant groups in Germany. With the global financial crisis, suicide risk of immigrants from the most affected countries decreased more strongly compared to immigrants from other CO.

CONCLUSIONS

The suicide risk strongly differs between the individual immigrant groups and is associated with risk factors of the respective CO. Therefore, future suicide prevention approaches in immigrants should take CO-specific vulnerabilities into account as well as age-related risk factors.

Examining Responsiveness to an Incentive-Based Mobile Health App: Longitudinal Observational Study

Background

The Carrot Rewards app was developed as part of a public-private partnership to reward Canadians with loyalty points for downloading the app, referring friends, completing educational health quizzes, and health-related behaviors with long-term objectives of increasing health knowledge and encouraging healthy behaviors. During the first 3 months after program rollout in British Columbia, a number of program design elements were adjusted, creating observed differences between groups of users with respect to the potential impact of program features on user engagement levels.

Objective

This study examines the impact of reducing reward size over time and explored the influence of other program features such as quiz timing, health intervention content, and type of reward program on user engagement with a mobile health (mHealth) app.

Methods

Participants in this longitudinal, nonexperimental observational study included British Columbia citizens who downloaded the app between March and July 2016. A regression methodology was used to examine the impact of changes to several program design features on quiz offer acceptance and engagement with this mHealth app.

Results

Our results, based on the longitudinal app use of 54,917 users (mean age 35, SD 13.2 years; 65.03% [35,647/54,917] female), indicated that the key drivers of the likelihood of continued user engagement, in order of greatest to least impact, were (1) type of rewards earned by users (eg, movies [+355%; P<.001], air travel [+210%; P<.001], and grocery [+140%; P<.001] relative to gas), (2) time delay between early offers (−64%; P<.001), (3) the content of the health intervention (eg, healthy eating [−10%; P<.001] vs exercise [+20%, P<.001] relative to health risk assessments), and (4) changes in the number of points offered. Our results demonstrate that reducing the number of points associated with a particular quiz by 10% only led to a 1% decrease in the likelihood of offer response (P<.001) and that each of the other design features had larger impacts on participant retention than did changes in the number of points.

Conclusions

The results of this study demonstrate that this program, built around the principles of behavioral economics in the form of the ongoing awarding of a small number of reward points instantly following the completion of health interventions, was able to drive significantly higher engagement levels than those demonstrated in previous literature exploring the intersection of mHealth apps and financial incentives. Previous studies have demonstrated the presence of incentive matters to user engagement; however, our results indicate that the number of points offered for these reward point–based health interventions is less important than other program design features such as the type of reward points being offered, the timing of intervention and reward offers, and the content of the health interventions in driving continued engagement by users.

Supporting individuals with intellectual and developmental disability during the first 100 days of the COVID-19 outbreak in the USA

BACKGROUND

It is unknown how the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the current acute respiratory illness COVID-19 pandemic that has infected millions of people, affects people with intellectual and developmental disability (IDD). The aim of this study is to describe how individuals with IDD have been affected in the first 100 days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Shortly after the first COVID-19 case was reported in the USA, our organisation, which provides continuous support for over 11 000 individuals with IDD, assembled an outbreak committee composed of senior leaders from across the health care organisation. The committee led the development and deployment of a comprehensive COVID-19 prevention and suppression strategy, utilising current evidence-based practice, while surveilling the global and local situation daily. We implemented enhanced infection control procedures across 2400 homes, which were communicated to our employees using multi-faceted channels including an electronic resource library, mobile and web applications, paper postings in locations, live webinars and direct mail. Using custom-built software applications enabling us to track patient, client and employee cases and exposures, we leveraged current public health recommendations to identify cases and to suppress transmission, which included the use of personal protective equipment. A COVID-19 case was defined as a positive nucleic acid test for SARS-CoV-2 RNA.

RESULTS

In the 100-day period between 20 January 2020 and 30 April 2020, we provided continuous support for 11 540 individuals with IDD. Sixty-four per cent of the individuals were in residential, community settings, and 36% were in intermediate care facilities. The average age of the cohort was 46 ± 12 years, and 60% were male. One hundred twenty-two individuals with IDD were placed in quarantine for exhibiting symptoms and signs of acute infection such as fever or cough. Sixty-six individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and their average age was 50. The positive individuals were located in 30 different homes (1.3% of total) across 14 states. Fifteen homes have had single cases, and 15 have had more than one case. Fifteen COVID-19-positive individuals were hospitalised. As of 30 April, seven of the individuals hospitalised have been discharged back to home and are recovering. Five remain hospitalised, with three improving and two remaining in intensive care and on mechanical ventilation. There have been three deaths. We found that among COVID-19-positive individuals with IDD, a higher number of chronic medical conditions and male sex were characteristics associated with a greater likelihood of hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS

In the first 100 days of the COVID-19 outbreak in the USA, we observed that people with IDD living in congregate care settings can benefit from a coordinated approach to infection control, case identification and cohorting, as evidenced by the low relative case rate reported. Male individuals with higher numbers of chronic medical conditions were more likely to be hospitalised, while most younger, less chronically ill individuals recovered spontaneously at home.

Commercial app use linked with sustained physical activity in two Canadian provinces: a 12-month quasi-experimental study

Background

Top tier commercial physical activity apps rarely undergo peer-reviewed evaluation. Even fewer are assessed beyond six months, the theoretical threshold for behaviour maintenance. The purpose of this study was to examine whether a multi-component commercial app rewarding users with digital incentives for walking was associated with an increase in physical activity over one year.

Methods

This 12-month quasi-experimental study was conducted in two Canadian provinces (n = 39,113 participants). Following a two-week baseline period, participants earned digital incentives ($0.04 CAD/day) every day they reached a personalized daily step goal. Mixed-effects models estimated changes in weekly mean daily step count between the baseline period and the last two recorded weeks. Models were fit for several engagement groups and separately by baseline physical activity status within engagement groups.

Results

Nearly half of participants (43%) were categorized as physically inactive at baseline (fewer than 5000 daily steps), and 60% engaged with the app for at least six months [‘Regular’ (24–51 weeks of step data) or ‘Committed’ sub-groups (52 weeks)]. Weekly mean daily step count increased for physically inactive users regardless of engagement status (P < .0001). The increase was largest for ‘Regular’ and ‘Committed’ participants—1215 and 1821 steps/day, respectively. For physically active participants, step count increases were only observed in the ‘Committed’ sub-group (P < .0001). Effect sizes were modest-to-medium depending on the sub-group analyzed.

Conclusions

A commercial app providing small but immediate digital incentives for individualized goals was associated with an increased weekly mean daily step count on a population-scale over one year. This effect was more evident for physically inactive and more engaged participants.

Facilitating treatment of HCV in primary care in regional Australia: closing the access gap

BACKGROUND

Australia has unrestricted access to direct-acting antivirals (DAA) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. In order to increase access to treatment, primary care providers are able to prescribe DAA after fibrosis assessment and specialist consultation. Transient elastography (TE) is recommended prior to commencement of HCV treatment; however, TE is rarely available outside secondary care centres in Australia and therefore a requirement for TE could represent a barrier to access to HCV treatment in primary care.

OBJECTIVES

In order to bridge this access gap, we developed a community-based TE service across the Sunshine Coast and Wide Bay areas of Queensland.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of a prospectively recorded HCV treatment database.

INTERVENTIONS

A nurse-led service equipped with two mobile Fibroscan units assesses patients in eight locations across regional Queensland. Patients are referred into the service via primary care and undergo nurse-led TE at a location convenient to the patient. Patients are discussed at a weekly multidisciplinary team meeting and a treatment recommendation made to the referring GP. Treatment is initiated and monitored in primary care. Patients with cirrhosis are offered follow-up in secondary care.

RESULTS

327 patients have undergone assessment and commenced treatment in primary care. Median age 48 years (IQR 38-56), 66% male. 57% genotype 1, 40% genotype 3; 82% treatment naïve; 10% had cirrhosis (liver stiffness >12.5 kPa). The majority were treated with sofosbuvir-based regimens. 26% treated with 8-week regimens. All patients had treatment prescribed and monitored in primary care. Telephone follow-up to confirm sustained virological response (SVR) was performed by clinic nurses. 147 patients remain on treatment. 180 patients have completed treatment. SVR data were not available for 19 patients (lost to follow-up). Intention-to-treat SVR rate was 85.5%. In patients with complete data SVR rate was 95.6%.

CONCLUSION

Community-based TE assessment facilitates access to HCV treatment in primary care with excellent SVR rates.

Decoloniality as a Framework for Indigenous Youth Suicide Prevention Pedagogy: Promoting Community Conversations About Research to End Suicide

Indigenous youth suicide remains a substantial health disparity in circumpolar communities, despite prevention efforts through primary health care, public health campaigns, school systems, and social services. Innovations in prevention practice move away from expert-driven approaches to emphasize local control through processes that utilize research evidence, but privilege self- determined action based on local and personal contexts, meanings, and frameworks for action. "Promoting Community Conversations About Research to End Suicide" is a community health intervention that draws on networks of Indigenous health educators in rural Alaska, who host learning circles in which research evidence is used to spark conversations and empower community members to consider individual and collective action to support vulnerable people and create health-promoting conditions that reduce suicide risk. The first of nine learning circles focuses on narratives of local people who link the contemporary youth suicide epidemic to 20th century American colonialism, and situates prevention within this context. We describe the theoretical framework and feasibility and acceptability outcomes for this learning circle, and elucidate how the educational model engages community members in decolonial approaches to suicide prevention education and practice, thus serving as a bridge between Western and Indigenous traditions to generate collective knowledge and catalyze community healing.

Evaluating the Carrot Rewards App, a Population-Level Incentive-Based Intervention Promoting Step Counts Across Two Canadian Provinces: Quasi-Experimental Study

Background

The Carrot Rewards app was developed as part of an innovative public-private partnership to reward Canadians with loyalty points, exchangeable for retail goods, travel rewards, and groceries for engaging in healthy behaviors such as walking.

Objective

This study examined whether a multicomponent intervention including goal setting, graded tasks, biofeedback, and very small incentives tied to daily step goal achievement (assessed by built-in smartphone accelerometers) could increase physical activity in two Canadian provinces, British Columbia (BC) and Newfoundland and Labrador (NL).

Methods

This 12-week, quasi-experimental (single group pre-post) study included 78,882 participants; 44.39% (35,014/78,882) enrolled in the Carrot Rewards “Steps” walking program during the recruitment period (June 13–July 10, 2016). During the 2-week baseline (or “run-in”) period, we calculated participants’ mean steps per day. Thereafter, participants earned incentives in the form of loyalty points (worth Can $0.04 ) every day they reached their personalized daily step goal (ie, baseline mean+1000 steps=first daily step goal level). Participants earned additional points (Can $0.40) for meeting their step goal 10+ nonconsecutive times in a 14-day period (called a “Step Up Challenge”). Participants could earn up to Can $5.00 during the 12-week evaluation period. Upon meeting the 10-day contingency, participants could increase their daily goal by 500 steps, aiming to gradually increase the daily step number by 3000. Only participants with ≥5 valid days (days with step counts: 1000-40,000) during the baseline period were included in the analysis (n=32,229).The primary study outcome was mean steps per day (by week), analyzed using linear mixed-effects models.

Results

The mean age of 32,229 participants with valid baseline data was 33.7 (SD 11.6) years; 66.11% (21,306/32,229) were female. The mean daily step count at baseline was 6511.22. Over half of users (16,336/32,229, 50.69%) were categorized as “physically inactive,” accumulating <5000 daily steps at baseline. Results from mixed-effects models revealed statistically significant increases in mean daily step counts when comparing baseline with each study week (P<.001). Compared with baseline, participants walked 115.70 more steps (95% CI 74.59 to 156.81; P<.001) at study week 12. BC and NL users classified as “high engagers” (app engagement above sample median; 15,511/32,229, 48.13%) walked 738.70 (95% CI 673.81 to 803.54; P<.001) and 346.00 (95% CI 239.26 to 452.74; P<.001) more steps, respectively. Physically inactive, high engagers (7022/32,229, 21.08%) averaged an increase of 1224.66 steps per day (95% CI 1160.69 to 1288.63; P<.001). Effect sizes were modest.

Conclusions

Providing very small but immediate rewards for personalized daily step goal achievement as part of a multicomponent intervention increased daily step counts on a population scale, especially for physically inactive individuals and individuals who engaged more with the walking program. Positive effects in both BC and NL provide evidence of replicability.