Screening-level models to estimate partition ratios of organic chemicals between polymeric materials, air and water

Polymeric materials flowing through the technosphere are repositories of organic chemicals throughout their life cycle. Equilibrium partition ratios of organic chemicals between these materials and air (KMA) or water (KMW) are required for models of fate and transport, high-throughput exposure assessment and passive sampling. KMA and KMW have been measured for a growing number of chemical/material combinations, but significant data gaps still exist. We assembled a database of 363 KMA and 910 KMW measurements for 446 individual compounds and nearly 40 individual polymers and biopolymers, collected from 29 studies. We used the EPI Suite and ABSOLV software packages to estimate physicochemical properties of the compounds and we employed an empirical correlation based on Trouton's rule to adjust the measured KMA and KMW values to a standard reference temperature of 298 K. Then, we used a thermodynamic triangle with Henry's law constant to calculate a complete set of 1273 KMA and KMW values. Using simple linear regression, we developed a suite of single parameter linear free energy relationship (spLFER) models to estimate KMA from the EPI Suite-estimated octanol-air partition ratio (KOA) and KMW from the EPI Suite-estimated octanol-water (KOW) partition ratio. Similarly, using multiple linear regression, we developed a set of polyparameter linear free energy relationship (ppLFER) models to estimate KMA and KMW from ABSOLV-estimated Abraham solvation parameters. We explored the two LFER approaches to investigate (1) their performance in estimating partition ratios, and (2) uncertainties associated with treating all different polymers as a single "bulk" polymeric material compartment. The models we have developed are suitable for screening assessments of the tendency for organic chemicals to be emitted from materials, and for use in multimedia models of the fate of organic chemicals in the indoor environment. In screening applications we recommend that KMA and KMW be modeled as 0.06 ×KOA and 0.06 ×KOW respectively, with an uncertainty range of a factor of 15.

Kinetics and Mechanism of the Oxidation of Cyclic Methylsiloxanes by Hydroxyl Radical in the Gas Phase: An Experimental and Theoretical Study

The ubiquitous presence of cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes (cVMS) in the global atmosphere has recently raised environmental concern. In order to assess the persistence and long-range transport potential of cVMS, their second-order rate constants (k) for reactions with hydroxyl radical ((•)OH) in the gas phase are needed. We experimentally and theoretically investigated the kinetics and mechanism of (•)OH oxidation of a series of cVMS, hexamethylcyclotrisiloxane (D3), octamethycyclotetrasiloxane (D4), and decamethycyclopentasiloxane (D5). Experimentally, we measured k values for D3, D4, and D5 with (•)OH in a gas-phase reaction chamber. The Arrhenius activation energies for these reactions in the temperature range from 313 to 353 K were small (-2.92 to 0.79 kcal·mol(-1)), indicating a weak temperature dependence. We also calculated the thermodynamic and kinetic behaviors for reactions at the M06-2X/6-311++G**//M06-2X/6-31+G** level of theory over a wider temperature range of 238-358 K that encompasses temperatures in the troposphere. The calculated Arrhenius activation energies range from -2.71 to -1.64 kcal·mol(-1), also exhibiting weak temperature dependence. The measured k values were approximately an order of magnitude higher than the theoretical values but have the same trend with increasing size of the siloxane ring. The calculated energy barriers for H-atom abstraction at different positions were similar, which provides theoretical support for extrapolating k for other cyclic siloxanes from the number of abstractable hydrogens.

Towards an improved understanding of processes controlling absorption efficiency and biomagnification of organic chemicals by fish

Dietary exposure is considered the dominant pathway for fish exposed to persistent, hydrophobic chemicals in the environment. Here we present a dynamic, fugacity-based three-compartment bioaccumulation model that describes the fish body as one compartment and the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) as two compartments. The model simulates uptake from the GIT by passive diffusion and micelle-mediated diffusion, and chemical degradation in the fish and the GIT compartments. We applied the model to a consistent measured dietary uptake and depuration dataset for rainbow trout (n=215) that is comprised of chlorinated benzenes, biphenyls, dioxins, diphenyl ethers, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Model performance relative to the measured data is statistically similar regardless of whether micelle-mediated diffusion is included; however, there are considerable uncertainties in modeling this process. When degradation in the GIT is assumed to be negligible, modeled chemical elimination rates are similar to measured rates; however, predicted concentrations of the PAHs are consistently higher than measurements by up to a factor of 20. Introducing a kinetic limit on chemical transport from the fish compartment to the GIT and increasing the rate constant for degradation of PAHs in tissues of the liver and/or GIT are required to achieve good agreement between the modelled and measured concentrations for PAHs. Our results indicate that the apparent low absorption efficiency of PAHs relative to the chemicals with similar hydrophobicity is attributable to biotransformation in the liver and/or the GIT. Our results provide process-level insights about controls on the extent of bioaccumulation of chemicals.

Organic Carbon/Water and Dissolved Organic Carbon/Water Partitioning of Cyclic Volatile Methylsiloxanes: Measurements and Polyparameter Linear Free Energy Relationships

The sorption of cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes (cVMS) to organic matter has a strong influence on their fate in the aquatic environment. We report new measurements of the partition ratios between freshwater sediment organic carbon and water (KOC) and between Aldrich humic acid dissolved organic carbon and water (KDOC) for three cVMS, and for three polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) that were used as reference chemicals. Our measurements were made using a purge-and-trap method that employs benchmark chemicals to calibrate mass transfer at the air/water interface in a fugacity-based multimedia model. The measured log KOC of octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5), and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) were 5.06, 6.12, and 7.07, and log KDOC were 5.05, 6.13, and 6.79. To our knowledge, our measurements for KOC of D6 and KDOC of D4 and D6 are the first reported. Polyparameter linear free energy relationships (PP-LFERs) derived from training sets of empirical data that did not include cVMS generally did not predict our measured partition ratios of cVMS accurately (root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) for logKOC 0.76 and for logKDOC 0.73). We constructed new PP-LFERs that accurately describe partition ratios for the cVMS as well as for other chemicals by including our new measurements in the existing training sets (logKOC RMSEcVMS: 0.09, logKDOC RMSEcVMS: 0.12). The PP-LFERs we have developed here should be further evaluated and perhaps recalibrated when experimental data for other siloxanes become available.

Pathways for degradation of plastic polymers floating in the marine environment

Each year vast amounts of plastic are produced worldwide. When released to the environment, plastics accumulate, and plastic debris in the world's oceans is of particular environmental concern. More than 60% of all floating debris in the oceans is plastic and amounts are increasing each year. Plastic polymers in the marine environment are exposed to sunlight, oxidants and physical stress, and over time they weather and degrade. The degradation processes and products must be understood to detect and evaluate potential environmental hazards. Some attention has been drawn to additives and persistent organic pollutants that sorb to the plastic surface, but so far the chemicals generated by degradation of the plastic polymers themselves have not been well studied from an environmental perspective. In this paper we review available information about the degradation pathways and chemicals that are formed by degradation of the six plastic types that are most widely used in Europe. We extrapolate that information to likely pathways and possible degradation products under environmental conditions found on the oceans' surface. The potential degradation pathways and products depend on the polymer type. UV-radiation and oxygen are the most important factors that initiate degradation of polymers with a carbon-carbon backbone, leading to chain scission. Smaller polymer fragments formed by chain scission are more susceptible to biodegradation and therefore abiotic degradation is expected to precede biodegradation. When heteroatoms are present in the main chain of a polymer, degradation proceeds by photo-oxidation, hydrolysis, and biodegradation. Degradation of plastic polymers can lead to low molecular weight polymer fragments, like monomers and oligomers, and formation of new end groups, especially carboxylic acids.

Toxicity of leachate from weathering plastics: An exploratory screening study with Nitocra spinipes

Between 60% and 80% of all marine litter is plastic. Leachate from plastics has previously been shown to cause acute toxicity in the freshwater species Daphnia magna. Here, we present an initial screening of the marine environmental hazard properties of leachates from weathering plastics to the marine harpacticoid copepod [Crustacea] Nitocra spinipes. Twenty-one plastic products made of different polymeric materials were leached and irradiated with artificial sunlight. Eight of the twenty-one plastics (38%) produced leachates that caused acute toxicity. Differences in toxicity were seen for different plastic products, and depending on the duration of irradiation. There was no consistent trend in how toxicity of leachate from plastics changed as a function of irradiation time. Leachate from four plastics became significantly more toxic after irradiation, two became significantly less toxic and two did not change significantly. Analysis of leachates from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) by liquid chromatography coupled to a full-scan high-resolution mass spectrometer showed that the leachates were a mixture of substances, but did not show evidence of degradation of the polymer backbone. This screening study demonstrates that leachates from different plastics differ in toxicity to N. spinipes and that the toxicity varies under simulated weathering.

Performance of the CalTOX fate and exposure model in a case study for a dioxin-contaminated site

Soil with high levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) is found at contaminated sites all over the world. Transfer of PCDD/Fs from contaminated soil to the food chain could lead to elevated human exposure. As a complement to available monitoring data, multimedia fate and exposure modeling can be applied to support risk assessment of sites with PCDD/F contaminated soil. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the CalTOX fate and exposure model for 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/Fs against measured concentrations in air, soil, grass, carrots, potatoes, milk, meat, and eggs from a contaminated site in northern Sweden. The calculated total toxic equivalent (TEQ) concentrations agree with measurements within a factor of 10 for all exposure media but one. Results for individual congeners demonstrated that the model did not always perform well at describing key processes that mobilize PCDD/Fs out of soils, such as transfer into root crops and ingestion of soil by chickens. Uncertainty in only a small subset of input parameters affects the model output. Improved information and models describing transfer of soil particles onto leafy vegetation by rain splash and biotransfer factors for PCDD/Fs to milk, meat, and eggs are particular research needs to reduce uncertainties in model-based assessments.

Using chemical benchmarking to determine the persistence of chemicals in a Swedish lake

It is challenging to measure the persistence of chemicals under field conditions. In this work, two approaches for measuring persistence in the field were compared: the chemical mass balance approach, and a novel chemical benchmarking approach. Ten pharmaceuticals, an X-ray contrast agent, and an artificial sweetener were studied in a Swedish lake. Acesulfame K was selected as a benchmark to quantify persistence using the chemical benchmarking approach. The 95% confidence intervals of the half-life for transformation in the lake system ranged from 780-5700 days for carbamazepine to <1-2 days for ketoprofen. The persistence estimates obtained using the benchmarking approach agreed well with those from the mass balance approach (1-21% difference), indicating that chemical benchmarking can be a valid and useful method to measure the persistence of chemicals under field conditions. Compared to the mass balance approach, the benchmarking approach partially or completely eliminates the need to quantify mass flow of chemicals, so it is particularly advantageous when the quantification of mass flow of chemicals is difficult. Furthermore, the benchmarking approach allows for ready comparison and ranking of the persistence of different chemicals.

Historical intake and elimination of polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides by the Australian population reconstructed from biomonitoring data

Quantifying the competing rates of intake and elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the human body is necessary to understand the levels and trends of POPs at a population level. In this paper we reconstruct the historical intake and elimination of ten polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and five organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from Australian biomonitoring data by fitting a population-level pharmacokinetic (PK) model. Our analysis exploits two sets of cross-sectional biomonitoring data for PCBs and OCPs in pooled blood serum samples from the Australian population that were collected in 2003 and 2009. The modeled adult reference intakes in 1975 for PCB congeners ranged from 0.89 to 24.5ng/kgbw/day, lower than the daily intakes of OCPs ranging from 73 to 970ng/kgbw/day. Modeled intake rates are declining with half-times from 1.1 to 1.3years for PCB congeners and 0.83 to 0.97years for OCPs. The shortest modeled intrinsic human elimination half-life among the compounds studied here is 6.4years for hexachlorobenzene, and the longest is 30years for PCB-74. Our results indicate that it is feasible to reconstruct intakes and to estimate intrinsic human elimination half-lives using the population-level PK model and biomonitoring data only. Our modeled intrinsic human elimination half-lives are in good agreement with values from a similar study carried out for the population of the United Kingdom, and are generally longer than reported values from other industrialized countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

Emissions of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Zurich, Switzerland, determined by a combination of measurements and modeling

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have been widely used as flame retardants but they are of concern and are currently being phased-out because of their environmentally hazardous properties and their potential to cause adverse health effects. We analyzed PBDEs in Zurich, Switzerland, and applied a multi-media environmental fate model to back-calculate the rate of PBDE emission to air. PBDE concentrations in ambient air were measured in summer 2010 and winter 2011 in the city center of Zurich. Concentrations were higher in summer (sum PBDEs 118-591 pg m(-3)) than in winter (sum PBDEs 17-151 pg m(-3)), and are on the upper end of concentrations reported in literature for urban sites with no point sources of PBDEs. The emissions derived from our measurements (summer: 53-165 μg capita(-1) d(-1), winter: 25-112 μg capita(-1) d(-1)) and extrapolated to annual emissions for Switzerland (114-406 kg a(-1)) lie in the middle of ranges reported on the basis of substance flow analyses and emission inventories. The difference between summer and winter emissions is small compared to the difference that would be expected from the temperature dependence of PBDE vapor pressure, which would be consistent with emissions occurring to a large extent from flame-proofed materials located indoors under nearly constant temperature conditions and/or emissions to air occurring by suspension of particles containing PBDEs. Compared to previous studies in Switzerland, concentrations and emissions of PBDEs appear to have increased during the last five years with an increasing contribution of decabromodiphenyl ether, despite the addition of PBDEs to national and international regulations.

Statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data for persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere at 20 monitoring stations broadly indicates declining concentrations

During recent decades concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere have been monitored at multiple stations worldwide. We used three statistical methods to analyze a total of 748 time series of selected POPs in the atmosphere to determine if there are statistically significant reductions in levels of POPs that have had control actions enacted to restrict or eliminate manufacture, use and emissions. Significant decreasing trends were identified in 560 (75%) of the 748 time series collected from the Arctic, North America, and Europe, indicating that the atmospheric concentrations of these POPs are generally decreasing, consistent with the overall effectiveness of emission control actions. Statistically significant trends in synthetic time series could be reliably identified with the improved Mann-Kendall (iMK) test and the digital filtration (DF) technique in time series longer than 5 years. The temporal trends of new (or emerging) POPs in the atmosphere are often unclear because time series are too short. A statistical detrending method based on the iMK test was not able to identify abrupt changes in the rates of decline of atmospheric POP concentrations encoded into synthetic time series.

Identifying chemicals that are planetary boundary threats

Rockström et al. proposed a set of planetary boundaries that delimit a "safe operating space for humanity". Many of the planetary boundaries that have so far been identified are determined by chemical agents. Other chemical pollution-related planetary boundaries likely exist, but are currently unknown. A chemical poses an unknown planetary boundary threat if it simultaneously fulfills three conditions: (1) it has an unknown disruptive effect on a vital Earth system process; (2) the disruptive effect is not discovered until it is a problem at the global scale, and (3) the effect is not readily reversible. In this paper, we outline scenarios in which chemicals could fulfill each of the three conditions, then use the scenarios as the basis to define chemical profiles that fit each scenario. The chemical profiles are defined in terms of the nature of the effect of the chemical and the nature of exposure of the environment to the chemical. Prioritization of chemicals in commerce against some of the profiles appears feasible, but there are considerable uncertainties and scientific challenges that must be addressed. Most challenging is prioritizing chemicals for their potential to have a currently unknown effect on a vital Earth system process. We conclude that the most effective strategy currently available to identify chemicals that are planetary boundary threats is prioritization against profiles defined in terms of environmental exposure combined with monitoring and study of the biogeochemical processes that underlie vital Earth system processes to identify currently unknown disruptive effects.

Equilibrium sampling to determine the thermodynamic potential for bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants from sediment

Equilibrium partitioning (EqP) theory is currently the most widely used approach for linking sediment pollution by persistent hydrophobic organic chemicals to bioaccumulation. Most applications of the EqP approach assume (I) a generic relationship between organic carbon-normalized chemical concentrations in sediments and lipid-normalized concentrations in biota and (II) that bioaccumulation does not induce levels exceeding those expected from equilibrium partitioning. Here, we demonstrate that assumption I can be obviated by equilibrating a silicone sampler with chemicals in sediment, measuring chemical concentrations in the silicone, and applying lipid/silicone partition ratios to yield concentrations in lipid at thermodynamic equilibrium with the sediment (CLip⇌Sed). Furthermore, we evaluated the validity of assumption II by comparing CLip⇌Sed of selected persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic pollutants (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB)) to lipid-normalized concentrations for a range of biota from a Swedish background lake. PCBs in duck mussels, roach, eel, pikeperch, perch and pike were mostly below the equilibrium partitioning level relative to the sediment, i.e., lipid-normalized concentrations were ≤CLip⇌Sed, whereas HCB was near equilibrium between biota and sediment. Equilibrium sampling allows straightforward, sensitive and precise measurement of CLip⇌Sed. We propose CLip⇌Sed as a metric of the thermodynamic potential for bioaccumulation of persistent organic chemicals from sediment useful to prioritize management actions to remediate contaminated sites.

Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model

The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region.

Emissions of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane from Chicago

Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) is a high-production-volume chemical that is emitted to air in tens of thousands of tonnes each year globally. However, specific information about emission rates to air is still limited. Here we present an estimate of D5 emissions from the city of Chicago based on measurements that have recently been published. We used a multimedia environmental fate model parameterized for Chicago to back-calculate the emission rate of D5 from the measurements. Our estimated average emission rate for D5 is 500 (2.5-to-97.5-percentile interval: 260-1100) kg d(-1). The corresponding per-capita emissions of 190 (100-420) mg capita(-1)d(-1) agree well with previous estimates for Europe and North America.

Silicone passive equilibrium samplers as 'chemometers' in eels and sediments of a Swedish lake

Passive equilibrium samplers deployed in two or more media of a system and allowed to come to equilibrium can be viewed as 'chemometers' that reflect the difference in chemical activities of contaminants between the media. We applied silicone-based equilibrium samplers to measure relative chemical activities of seven 'indicator' polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and hexachlorobenzene in eels and sediments from a Swedish lake. Chemical concentrations in eels and sediments were also measured using exhaustive extraction methods. Lipid-normalized concentrations in eels were higher than organic carbon-normalized concentrations in sediments, with biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) of five PCBs ranging from 2.7 to 12.7. In contrast, chemical activities of the same pollutants inferred by passive sampling were 3.5 to 31.3 times lower in eels than in sediments. The apparent contradiction between BSAFs and activity ratios is consistent with the sorptive capacity of lipids exceeding that of sediment organic carbon from this ecosystem by up to 50-fold. Factors that may contribute to the elevated activity in sediments are discussed, including slower response of sediments than water to reduced emissions, sediment diagenesis and sorption to phytoplankton. The 'chemometer' approach has the potential to become a powerful tool to study the thermodynamic controls on persistent organic chemicals in the environment and should be extended to other environmental compartments.

Enhanced elimination of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid by menstruating women: evidence from population-based pharmacokinetic modeling

Human biomonitoring studies have shown that concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) in men are higher than in women. We investigate sex differences in elimination of PFOS by fitting a population-based pharmacokinetic model to six cross-sectional data sets from 1999 to 2012 from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and derive human first-order elimination rate constants (kE) and corresponding elimination half-lives (t1/2) for PFOS, where t1/2 = ln 2/kE. We use a modified version of the Ritter population-based pharmacokinetic model and derive elimination rate constants separately for men and women. The model accounts for population-average lifetime changes in PFOS intake, body weight, and menstruation rate. We compare the model-derived elimination rate constant for hypothetical nonmenstruating women to the elimination rate constant for men and women when menstruation is included as a loss process to evaluate the hypothesis that loss of PFOS by menstruation is an important process for women. The modeled elimination half-life for men is 4.7 years, and the modeled elimination half-life for women when excluding losses from menstruation is 3.7 years. The elimination half-life for women when menstruation is included in the model is 4.0 years. Thus, menstruation accounts for 30% of the discrepancy in elimination of PFOS between men and women. The remaining discrepancy is likely due to other sex-specific elimination routes that are not considered in our modeling.

Evaluation of the potential of benchmarking to facilitate the measurement of chemical persistence in lakes

The persistence of chemicals in the environment is rarely measured in the field due to a paucity of suitable methods. Here we explore the potential of chemical benchmarking to facilitate the measurement of persistence in lake systems using a multimedia chemical fate model. The model results show that persistence in a lake can be assessed by quantifying the ratio of test chemical and benchmark chemical at as few as two locations: the point of emission and the outlet of the lake. Appropriate selection of benchmark chemicals also allows pseudo-first-order rate constants for physical removal processes such as volatilization and sediment burial to be quantified. We use the model to explore how the maximum persistence that can be measured in a particular lake depends on the partitioning properties of the test chemical of interest and the characteristics of the lake. Our model experiments demonstrate that combining benchmarking techniques with good experimental design and sensitive environmental analytical chemistry may open new opportunities for quantifying chemical persistence, particularly for relatively slowly degradable chemicals for which current methods do not perform well.

A benchmarking method to measure dietary absorption efficiency of chemicals by fish

Understanding the dietary absorption efficiency of chemicals in the gastrointestinal tract of fish is important from both a scientific and a regulatory point of view. However, reported fish absorption efficiencies for well-studied chemicals are highly variable. In the present study, the authors developed and exploited an internal chemical benchmarking method that has the potential to reduce uncertainty and variability and, thus, to improve the precision of measurements of fish absorption efficiency. The authors applied the benchmarking method to measure the gross absorption efficiency for 15 chemicals with a wide range of physicochemical properties and structures. They selected 2,2',5,6'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB53) and decabromodiphenyl ethane as absorbable and nonabsorbable benchmarks, respectively. Quantities of chemicals determined in fish were benchmarked to the fraction of PCB53 recovered in fish, and quantities of chemicals determined in feces were benchmarked to the fraction of decabromodiphenyl ethane recovered in feces. The performance of the benchmarking procedure was evaluated based on the recovery of the test chemicals and precision of absorption efficiency from repeated tests. Benchmarking did not improve the precision of the measurements; after benchmarking, however, the median recovery for 15 chemicals was 106%, and variability of recoveries was reduced compared with before benchmarking, suggesting that benchmarking could account for incomplete extraction of chemical in fish and incomplete collection of feces from different tests.

Confronting unknown planetary boundary threats from chemical pollution

Rockström et al. proposed a set of planetary boundaries that delimitate a "safe operating space for humanity". One of the planetary boundaries is determined by "chemical pollution", however no clear definition was provided. Here, we propose that there is no single chemical pollution planetary boundary, but rather that many planetary boundary issues governed by chemical pollution exist. We identify three conditions that must be simultaneously met for chemical pollution to pose a planetary boundary threat. We then discuss approaches to identify chemicals that could fulfill those conditions, and outline a proactive hazard identification strategy that considers long-range transport and the reversibility of chemical pollution.

Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.

Mountain cold-trapping increases transfer of persistent organic pollutants from atmosphere to cows' milk

Concentrations of long-lived organic contaminants in snow, soil, lake water, and vegetation have been observed to increase with altitude along mountain slopes. Such enrichment, called "mountain cold-trapping", is attributed to a transition from the atmospheric gas phase to particles, rain droplets, snowflakes, and Earth's surface at the lower temperatures prevailing at higher elevations. Milk sampled repeatedly from cows that had grazed at three different altitudes in Switzerland during one summer was analyzed for a range of persistent organic pollutants. Mountain cold-trapping significantly increased air-to-milk transfer factors of most analytes. As a result, the milk of cows grazing at higher altitudes was more contaminated with substances that have regionally uniform air concentrations (hexachlorobenzene, α-hexachlorocyclohexane, endosulfan sulfate). For substances that have sources, and therefore higher air concentrations, at lower altitudes (polychlorinated biphenyls, γ-hexachlorocyclohexane), alpine milk has lower concentrations, but not as low as would be expected without mountain cold-trapping. Differences in the elevational gradients in soil concentrations and air-to-milk transfer factors highlight that cold-trapping of POPs in pastures is mostly due to increased gas-phase deposition as a result of lower temperatures causing higher uptake capacity of plant foliage, whereas cold-trapping in soils more strongly depends on wet and dry particle deposition. Climatic influences on air-to-milk transfer of POPs needs to be accounted for when using contamination of milk lipids to infer contamination of the atmosphere.

Concentrations in ambient air and emissions of cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes in Zurich, Switzerland

Tens of thousands of tonnes of cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes (cVMS) are used each year globally, which leads to high and continuous cVMS emissions to air. However, field measurements of cVMS in air and empirical information about emission rates to air are still limited. Here we present measurements of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) in air for Zurich, Switzerland. The measurements were performed in January and February 2011 over a period of eight days and at two sites (city center and background) with a temporal resolution of 6-12 h. Concentrations of D5 and D6 are higher in the center of Zurich and range from 100 to 650 ng m(-3) and from 10 to 79 ng m(-3), respectively. These values are among the highest levels of D5 and D6 reported in the literature. In a second step, we used a multimedia environmental fate model parametrized for the region of Zurich to interpret the levels and time trends in the cVMS concentrations and to back-calculate the emission rates of D5 and D6 from the city of Zurich. The average emission rates obtained for D5 and D6 are 120 kg d(-1) and 14 kg d(-1), respectively, which corresponds to per-capita emissions of 310 mg capita(-1) d(-1) for D5 and 36 mg capita(-1) d(-1) for D6.

Emissions, fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants to the Arctic in a changing global climate

Climate change is expected to alter patterns of human economic activity and the associated emissions of chemicals, and also to affect the transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Here, we use a global-scale multimedia chemical fate model to analyze and quantify the impact of climate change on emissions and fate of POPs, and their transport to the Arctic. First, climate change effects under the SRES-A2 scenario are illustrated using case-studies for two well-characterized POPs, PCB153, and α-HCH. Then, we model the combined impact of altered emission patterns and climatic conditions on environmental concentrations of potential future-use substances with a broad range of chemical properties. Starting from base-case generic emission scenarios, we postulate changes in emission patterns that may occur in response to climate change: enhanced usage of industrial chemicals in an ice-free Arctic, and intensified application of agrochemicals due to higher crop production and poleward expansion of potential arable land. We find both increases and decreases in concentrations of POP-like chemicals in the Arctic in the climate change scenario compared to the base-case climate. During the phase of ongoing primary emissions, modeled increases in Arctic contamination are up to a factor of 2 in air and water, and are driven mostly by changes in emission patterns. After phase-out, increases are up to a factor of 2 in air and 4 in water, and are mostly attributable to changes in transport and fate of chemicals under the climate change scenario.

Atmospheric fate of poly- and perfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs): II. Emission source strength in summer in Zurich, Switzerland

Fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) and perfluorooctane sulfonamides (FOSAs) are present in consumer products and are semi-volatile precursors of persistent perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs). The high variability of levels of FTOHs and FOSAs in products makes it difficult to derive FTOH- and FOSA-emissions from urban areas based on emission factors. Here we used a multimedia mass balance model that describes the day-night cycle of semi-volatile organic chemicals in air to interpret measurements of 8:2 FTOH, 10:2 FTOH, MeFOSA and EtFOSA from a sampling campaign in summer 2010 in Zurich, Switzerland. The estimated emission source strength of the four substances follows the sequence: 8:2 FTOH (2.6 g/h) > 10:2 FTOH (0.75 g/h) > MeFOSA (0.08 g/h) > EtFOSA (0.05 g/h). There is no FTOHs- or FOSAs-related industry in Zurich. Accordingly, our estimates are representative of diffusive emissions during use and disposal of consumer products, and describe noticeable sources of these PFASs to the environment.

Good modeling practice guidelines for applying multimedia models in chemical assessments

Multimedia mass balance models of chemical fate in the environment have been used for over 3 decades in a regulatory context to assist decision making. As these models become more comprehensive, reliable, and accepted, there is a need to recognize and adopt principles of Good Modeling Practice (GMP) to ensure that multimedia models are applied with transparency and adherence to accepted scientific principles. We propose and discuss 6 principles of GMP for applying existing multimedia models in a decision-making context, namely 1) specification of the goals of the model assessment, 2) specification of the model used, 3) specification of the input data, 4) specification of the output data, 5) conduct of a sensitivity and possibly also uncertainty analysis, and finally 6) specification of the limitations and limits of applicability of the analysis. These principles are justified and discussed with a view to enhancing the transparency and quality of model-based assessments.

Modeling the influence of climate change on the mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Adriatic Sea

Climate forcing is forecasted to influence the Adriatic Sea region in a variety of ways, including increasing temperature, and affecting wind speeds, marine currents, precipitation and water salinity. The Adriatic Sea is intensively developed with agriculture, industry, and port activities that introduce pollutants to the environment. Here, we developed and applied a Level III fugacity model for the Adriatic Sea to estimate the current mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Sea, and to examine the effects of a climate change scenario on the distribution of these pollutants. The model's performance was evaluated for three PCB congeners against measured concentrations in the region using environmental parameters estimated from the 20th century climate scenario described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC, and using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. We find that modeled fugacities of PCBs in air, water and sediment of the Adriatic are in good agreement with observations. The model indicates that PCBs in the Adriatic Sea are closely coupled with the atmosphere, which acts as a net source to the water column. We used model experiments to assess the influence of changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation, marine currents, particulate organic carbon and air inflow concentrations forecast in the IPCC A1B climate change scenario on the mass balance of PCBs in the Sea. Assuming an identical PCBs' emission profile (e.g. use pattern, treatment/disposal of stockpiles, mode of entry), modeled fugacities of PCBs in the Adriatic Sea under the A1B climate scenario are higher because higher temperatures reduce the fugacity capacity of air, water and sediments, and because diffusive sources to the air are stronger.

Application of the WFD cost proportionality principle to diffuse pollution mitigation: a case study for Scottish Lochs

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) aims to deliver good ecological status (GES) for Europe's waters. It prescribes the use of economic principles, such as derogation from GES on grounds of disproportionate costs of mitigation. This paper proposes an application of the proportionality principle to mitigation of phosphorus (P) pollution of 544 Scottish lochs at national and local water body scales. P loading estimates were derived from a national diffuse pollution screening tool. For 293 of these lochs (31% of the loch area), GES already occurred. Mitigation cost-effectiveness was assessed using combined mitigation cost curves for managed grassland, rough grazing, arable land, sewage and septic tank sources. These provided sufficient mitigation (92% of national P load) for GES to be achieved on another 31% of loch area at annualised cost of £2.09 m/y. Mitigation of the residual P loading preventing other lochs achieving GES was considered by using a "mop-up" cost of £200/kg P (assumed cost effectiveness of removal of P directly from lochs), leading to a total cost of £189 m/y. Lochs were ranked by mitigation costs per loch area to give a national scale marginal mitigation cost curve. A published choice experiment valuation of WFD targets for Scottish lochs was used to estimate marginal benefits at national scale and combined with the marginal cost curve. This gave proportionate costs of £5.7 m/y leading to GES in 72% of loch area. Using national mean marginal benefits with a scheme to estimate changes in individual loch value with P loading gave proportionate costs of £25.6 m/y leading to GES in 77% of loch area (491 lochs).

BETR global--a geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15°×15° grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Assessment of nonoccupational exposure to DDT in the tropics and the north: relevance of uptake via inhalation from indoor residual spraying

BACKGROUND

People who live in dwellings treated with indoor residual spraying (IRS) of DDT [1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane] for disease-vector control in the tropics and indigenous populations in the Arctic who consume marine mammals experience high nonoccupational exposure to DDT. Although the use of DDT in IRS is rising, the resulting nonoccupational exposure is poorly characterized.

OBJECTIVES

We have provided a comparative assessment of exposure to DDT and its metabolites in the general population of the tropical and northern regions and in highly exposed populations in these regions.

METHODS

We compiled > 600 average or median DDT concentrations from the peer-reviewed literature, representing > 23,000 individual measurements in humans, food, air, soil, and dust. We use Monte Carlo sampling of distributions based on these data to estimate distributions of population- and route-specific uptake. We evaluate our exposure estimates by comparing them with biomonitoring data.

RESULTS

DDT concentrations are highest in people living in IRS-treated houses and lowest in the northern general population, differing by a factor of about 60. Inuits and the general population in the tropics have similar concentrations. Inhalation exposure explains most of the difference in concentration between the highly exposed and the general population in the Tropics. Calculated exposure levels are consistent with human biomonitoring data.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonoccupational inhalation exposure is a relevant exposure pathway for people living in homes treated by IRS of DDT. Continued monitoring of time trends and DDE to DDT ratios in the Tropics and in the North is needed to identify a possible slowdown in concentration decline and the influence of ongoing DDT use.

Intrinsic human elimination half-lives of polychlorinated biphenyls derived from the temporal evolution of cross-sectional biomonitoring data from the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Most empirical estimates of human elimination kinetics for persistent chemicals reflect apparent elimination half-lives that represent the aggregated effect of intrinsic elimination, ongoing exposure, and changes in body weight. However, estimates of intrinsic elimination at background levels are required for risk assessments for the general population.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate intrinsic human elimination half-lives at background levels for nine polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners, we used a novel approach based on population data.

METHODS

We used a population pharmacokinetic model to interpret two sets of congener-specific cross-sectional age-concentration biomonitoring data of PCB concentrations measured in lipid and blood samples that were collected from 229 individuals in 1990 and 2003. Our method is novel because it exploits information about changes in concentration in the human population along two dimensions: age and calendar time.

RESULTS

Our approach extracted information about both elimination kinetics and exposure trends from biomonitoring data. The longest intrinsic human elimination half-lives estimated in this study are 15.5 years for PCB-170, 14.4 years for PCB-153, and 11.5 years for PCB-180.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are further evidence that a maximum intrinsic elimination half-life for persistent chemicals such as PCBs exists and is approximately 10-15 years. A clear conceptual distinction between apparent and intrinsic half-lives is required to reduce the uncertainty in elimination half-lives of persistent chemicals. The method presented here estimates intrinsic elimination half-lives and the exposure trends of persistent pollutants using cross-sectional data available from a large and growing number of biomonitoring programs.

Bioaccumulation of organic contaminants in humans: a multimedia perspective and the importance of biotransformation

Bioaccumulation is an important component of the exposure hazard assessment and risk assessment of organic chemicals. Screening criteria for chemical hazard used in national and international regulations are based on the paradigm that partitioning properties are the primary chemical determinants of bioaccumulation. We use a holistic multimedia perspective to evaluate the partitioning property paradigm with respect to assessing human bioaccumulation. Multimedia bioaccumulation factors (mmBAFs) for humans were modeled for hypothetical chemicals with a wide range of physical-chemical properties. Varying partitioning properties over 12 orders of magnitude (a plausible range for nonionizing organics) resulted in only modest changes in mmBAFs (a factor of ∼ 10) for all but very volatile or hydrophilic chemicals. In contrast, varying biotransformation rate constants over 6 orders of magnitude resulted in substantial differences in mmBAFs (greater than a factor of 10(9)). Our model results are supported by empirical observations of well characterized pollutants, which demonstrate that chemicals with similar partitioning properties can have very different bioaccumulation behavior. Susceptibility to biotransformation clearly determines bioaccumulation in humans for many chemicals. We conclude that a holistic multimedia perspective for bioaccumulation assessment is necessary to develop regulations, criteria, and policies that are protective of human health and the environment.

Diurnal fluctuations in polybrominated diphenyl ether concentrations during and after a severe dust storm episode in Kuwait City, Kuwait

Concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were quantified in four-hour integrated air samples obtained serially over a five day period in May 2007 in Kuwait City during and after a severe dust storm. The ∑PBDE concentrations ranged from 51 to 1307 pg m(-3) for the first two days of sampling and 20 to 148 pg m(-3) for the rest of the sampling period. The first two days of sampling occurred during a severe dust storm episode when the total suspended particulates (TSP) in air exceeded 1000 μg/m(3) with concentrations peaking during the day and decreasing at night. During this dust episode, the peak nighttime PBDE concentration was 30 times higher than the minimum daytime concentration. Although ∑PBDE concentrations peaked at night during the first two sampling days, the fluctuations in the BDE 47:99 ratio tracked changes in ambient temperature remarkably well, following a clear diurnal pattern. The fraction of congeners in the gas phase varied inversely with solar flux and was lower on days with a high number of hours of sunshine, suggesting that photolytic degradation of gas-phase PBDEs was occurring.

Quantification of sources of PCBs to the atmosphere in urban areas: a comparison of cities in North America, Western Europe and former Yugoslavia

We present estimated emission source strengths of seven polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners for Banja Luka, a city that was affected by the civil war in Bosnia and Hercegovina (former Yugoslavia) in the 1990s. These emission estimates are compared to PCB emission rates estimated for the cities of Zurich, Switzerland, and Chicago, USA using an approach that combines multimedia mass balance modeling and measurement data. Our modeled per-capita emission estimates for Banja Luka are lower by a factor of ten than those for Zurich and Chicago, which are similar. This indicates that the sources of PCB emissions in Banja Luka are likely to be weaker than in the Western European and North American cities which show relatively high PCB emissions. Our emission rates from the three cities agree within a factor of ten with emission estimates from a global PCB emission inventory derived from production and usage estimates and emission factors.

Remoteness from emission sources explains the fractionation pattern of polychlorinated biphenyls in the northern hemisphere

The global distillation hypothesis states that fractionation patterns of persistent semivolatile chemicals in the environment are determined by the effect of spatially varying environmental temperature on the temperature-dependent phase partitioning coefficients of chemicals. Here, we use a model experiment and an analysis of monitoring data for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to explore an alternative hypothesis, the differential removal hypothesis, which proposes that fractionation results from different loss rates from the atmosphere, acting along a gradient of remoteness from emission sources. Model calculations for a range of PCB congeners demonstrate that fractionation occurs with distance from sources, regardless of the temperature gradient. We have assembled two independent data sets of PCB concentrations in European air that show fractionation, and quantified the remoteness of monitoring sites from PCB sources using the remoteness index, RI. Regression analysis of these empirical data against RI and temperature demonstrates that RI determines fractionation patterns. Based on this result, we calculate empirical effective residence times in air for a set of PCB congeners from the relationship between measured concentrations and RI. These empirical effective residence times agree well with values calculated by a multimedia mass balance model. Our conclusion from the model experiment and analysis of monitoring data is that temperature is not a driver of the fractionation of PCBs currently observed in European air, but rather that fractionation reflects differential removal from the atmosphere.

Estimation of the source strength of polybrominated diphenyl ethers based on their diel variability in air in Zurich, Switzerland

Diel (24-h) concentration variations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in air were measured in the center of Zurich, Switzerland, and on Uetliberg, a hill about 5 km from the city center. Air samples were collected simultaneously at both sites over 4 h time periods for 3 consecutive days during a stable high pressure system in August 2007. Higher PBDE concentrations in the city compared to the Uetliberg site indicate that Zurich is a likely source of PBDEs to the atmosphere. A multimedia mass balance model was used to (i) explain the diel cycling pattern of PBDE concentrations observed at both sites in terms of dominant processes and (ii) estimate emission rates of PBDEs from the city to the atmosphere. We estimate that Zurich emits 0.4, 6.2, 1.6, and 0.4 kg year(-1) of the PBDE congeners 28, 47, 99, and 100, respectively. On a per-capita basis, these estimates are within the range or somewhat above those obtained in other studies using approaches based on emission factors (EF) and PBDE production, usage, and disposal data, or concentration measurements. The present approach complements emission estimates based on the EF approach and can also be applied to source areas where EFs and PBDE material flows are poorly characterized or unknown, such as electronic waste processing plants.

Photoreactions of mercury in surface ocean water: gross reaction kinetics and possible pathways

We present pseudofirst order rate constants for gross photoreduction and gross photooxidation of mercury in surface water from the open Atlantic Ocean, determined under controlled laboratory conditions. Experiments using both unfiltered and filtered ocean water were carried out to characterize the importance of microbes and colloids on reaction kinetics. Results indicate that reduction and oxidation of mercury in ocean water does not follow a simple two-species reversible reaction pathway. We suggest two possible redox pathways that reproduce the pattern of dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) concentrations observed in our laboratory experiments, and evaluate them using a controlled outdoor experiment. In both proposed pathways Hg(0), the major constituent of DGM, is converted to an unidentified oxidized species that is different from the reducible form present initially. This reaction step plays a major role in the net formation of DGM in our experiments. Our results represent new quantitative information about the gross reaction kinetics for both reduction and oxidation of mercury in open ocean surface water. Pseudofirst order rate constants for reduction reactions that form DGM were determined to be in the range of 0.15-0.93 h(-1) and pseudofirst order rate constants for oxidation of Hg(0) to be in the range of 0.4-1.9 h(-1). Microbes and colloids did not appreciably influence the reduction and oxidation kinetics.