Causal Effects of Serum Levels of n-3 or n-6 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids on Coronary Artery Disease: Mendelian Randomization Study

We aimed to investigate the causal effects of n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) on the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) through Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. This MR study utilized a genetic instrument developed from previous genome-wide association studies for various serum n-3 and n-6 PUFA levels. First, we calculated the allele scores for genetic predisposition of PUFAs in individuals of European ancestry in the UK Biobank data (N = 337,129). The allele score-based MR was obtained by regressing the allele scores to CAD risks. Second, summary-level MR was performed with the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D data for CAD (N = 184,305). Higher genetically predicted eicosapentaenoic acid and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid levels were significantly associated with a lower risk of CAD both in the allele-score-based and summary-level MR analyses. Higher allele scores for linoleic acid level were significantly associated with lower CAD risks, and in the summary-level MR, the causal estimates by the pleiotropy-robust MR methods also indicated that higher linoleic acid levels cause a lower risk of CAD. Arachidonic acid showed significant causal estimates for a higher risk of CAD. This study supports the causal effects of certain n-3 and n-6 PUFA types on the risk of CAD.

Causal effect of alcohol use on the risk of end-stage kidney disease and related comorbidities: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

An inverse observational association between alcohol use and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) has been reported. The causal effect of alcohol use on the risk of ESKD warrants additional investigation.

METHODS

The study was an observational cohort study investigating the UK Biobank and performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Amounts of alcohol use were collected using a touchscreen questionnaire. In the observational analysis, 212,133 participants without prevalent ESKD were studied, and the association between alcohol use and the risk of prevalent CKD or incident ESKD was investigated. The genetic analysis included 337,138 participants of white British ancestry. For one-sample MR, an analysis based on a polygenic risk score (PRS) was conducted with genetically predicted alcohol intake. The MR analysis investigated ESKD outcome and related comorbidities.

RESULTS

Lower alcohol use was observationally associated with a higher risk of prevalent CKD or incident ESKD. However, the genetic risk of CKD was significantly associated with lower alcohol use, suggesting reverse causation. A higher PRS for alcohol use was significantly associated with a higher risk of ESKD (per units of one phenotypical alcohol drink; adjusted odds ratio of 1.16 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.31]) and related comorbidities, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, and central obesity.

CONCLUSION

The inverse observational association between alcohol use and the risk of CKD or ESKD may have been affected by reverse causation. Our study supports a causal effect of alcohol use on a higher risk of ESKD and related predisposing comorbidities.

Causal effects of physical activity or sedentary behaviors on kidney function: an integrated population-scale observational analysis and Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

An investigation for the causality of the effects of physical activity and specific sedentary activities on kidney function in the general population is warranted.

METHODS

In this observational cohort study, first, the clinical associations of the prevalence of stages 3-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the eGFR with physical activity, determined by self-report or objective wrist-band accelerometer results, and sedentary activities (watching television, using a computer, and driving) were investigated in 329,758 UK Biobank participants. To assess causality, a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to investigate the associations of a genetic predisposition to physical activity and a sedentary lifestyle with the risk of kidney function impairment in an independent CKDGen genome-wide association study (N = 567,460). The findings were replicated with the 321,024 UK white British Biobank participants in the allele-score-based one-sample MR.

RESULTS

A higher degree of self-reported or accelerometer-determined moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was associated with a higher eGFR, while a longer time spent watching television was significantly associated with a lower eGFR and a higher prevalence of CKD. The two-sample MR demonstrated that the genetic predisposition to a higher degree of physical activity was associated with a lower risk of CKD and a higher eGFR, while the genetically predicted television watching duration was associated with a higher risk of CKD and a lower eGFR. The other sedentary behaviors yielded inconsistent results. The findings were similarly replicated in the one-sample MR.

CONCLUSION

Physical activity and television watching causally affect kidney function in the general population.

Causal effects of relative fat, protein, and carbohydrate intake on chronic kidney disease: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

The effects of specific macronutrients on kidney function independent of total calorie intake have rarely been studied, although the composition of macronutrient intake has been reported to affect health outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate the effects of macronutrient intake ratios on the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) by Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis.

METHODS

The study was an observational cohort study mainly based on the UK Biobank and including MR analysis. First, we evaluated the relative baseline macronutrient composition-that is, the number of calories from each macronutrient divided by total calorie intake-of the diets of UK Biobank participants, and we used Cox regression to assess the incidence of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in 65,164 participants with normal kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2]. We implemented a genetic instrument for relative fat, protein, and carbohydrate intake developed by a previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) and performed MR analysis. Two-sample MR was performed with the summary statistics from independent CKDGen GWAS for kidney function traits (n = 567,460), including CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and log-transformed eGFR.

RESULTS

The median relative macronutrient intake composition at baseline was 35% fats, 15% protein, and 50% carbohydrates. Higher relative protein intake in subjects with normal kidney function was significantly associated with a lower risk of incident ESKD (HR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.30, 0.95) in the observational investigation. Two-sample MR indicated that increased relative fat intake causally increased the risk of kidney function impairment [CKD (OR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.39, 2.71); log eGFR (β: -0.036; 95% CI: -0.048, -0.024)] and that higher relative protein intake was causally linked to a lower CKD risk [CKD (OR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.35, 0.72); log eGFR (β: 0.044; 95% CI: 0.030, 0.058)].

CONCLUSIONS

A desirable macronutrient composition, including high relative protein intake and low relative fat intake, may causally reduce the risk of CKD in the general population.

Smoking, development of or recovery from metabolic syndrome, and major adverse cardiovascular events: A nationwide population-based cohort study including 6 million people

Smoking, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) are important global health problems. We aimed to investigate the association between smoking, alteration in MetS status, and the consequent risk of MACE. We performed a nationwide observational cohort study based on the claims database of Korea. We included people with ≥ 3 national health screenings from 2009 to 2013. Total 6,099,717 people, including 3,576,236 nonsmokers, 862,210 ex-smokers, 949,586 light-to-moderate smokers, and 711,685 heavy smokers, at the first health screening, were investigated. First, we performed a logistic regression analysis using smoking status at the first screening as the exposure variable and MetS development or recovery as the outcome variable. Second, we performed a Poisson regression using smoking status at the third screening as the exposure variable and the outcome was risk of incident MACEs. Among those previously free from MetS (N = 4,889,493), 347,678 people developed MetS, and among those who had previous MetS (N = 1,210,224), 347,627 people recovered from MetS. Smoking was related to a higher risk of MetS development [for heavy smokers: adjusted OR 1.71 (1.69 to 1.73)] and a lower probability of MetS recovery [for heavy smokers: adjusted OR 0.68 (0.67 to 0.69)]. Elevated triglycerides was the MetS component with the most prominent association with smoking. The risk for incident MACEs (78,640 events during a median follow-up of 4.28 years) was the highest for heavy smokers, followed in order by light-to-moderate, ex-smokers and nonsmokers, for every MetS status. Therefore, smoking may promote MetS or even hinder recovery from MetS. Smoking cessation should be emphasized to reduce MACE risk even for those without MetS.

Cardiovascular or mortality risk of controlled hypertension and importance of physical activity

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) and all-cause death of patients with controlled hypertension and suggest the benefits of physical activity in their prognosis.

METHODS

People aged 40-69 years from the prospective UK Biobank cohort (UKB, n=220 026) and the retrospective Korean National Health Insurance Service cohort (KNHIS, n=3 593 202) were included in this observational cohort study, excluding those with previous cerebrocardiovascular diseases or hypertension without treatment. The study groups were stratified into normotension, controlled hypertension (patients with hypertension with systolic blood pressure <140 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg) and uncontrolled hypertension groups. The outcomes were MACCEs and all-cause mortality, analysed by Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

We included 161 405/18 844/39 777 and 3 122 890/383 828/86 484 individuals with normotension/controlled hypertension/uncontrolled hypertension state from the UKB and KNHIS cohorts, respectively. The controlled hypertension group showed significantly higher risk of MACCEs (UKB: adjusted HR 1.73 (95% CI 1.55 to 1.92); KNHIS: 1.46 (95% CI 1.43 to 1.49)) and all-cause mortality (UKB: adjusted HR 1.28 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.39); KNHIS: 1.29 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.32)) than individuals with normotension. The controlled hypertension group not involved in any moderate or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity showed high risk of adverse outcomes, which was comparable with or even higher than the risk of patients with uncontrolled hypertension who were engaged in physical activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Controlled hypertension is associated with residual risks of adverse outcomes. Clinicians may encourage physical activity for patients with controlled hypertension, not being reassured by their achieved target blood pressure values.

Predictive value of triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol for major clinical outcomes in advanced chronic kidney disease: a nationwide population-based study

Background

Dyslipidemia is an essential parameter in the prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to explore whether lipid profiles could predict major outcomes in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the National Health Insurance Service database for people who received nationwide health screening in 2009. All subjects exposed to a lipid-lowering agent before screening were excluded. The population was divided into control, early [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m²] and advanced (eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m²) CKD groups. The hazard ratios (HRs) of outcomes were calculated using multivariate Cox regression models.

Results

A total of 3 634 873 participants were included in this study, with 404 298 (11.1%) and 66 805 (1.8%) having early and advanced CKD, respectively. For all populations, levels of triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) showed a linear association with major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) and all-cause mortality, while low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) showed a different pattern of association with MACCEs (linear association) from all-cause mortality (U-shaped association). The significance between the levels of LDL-C and outcomes was attenuated in the advanced CKD group. For TG/HDL-C, although the significance was decreased, the linear patterns with both MACCEs and all-cause mortality were maintained in the advanced CKD group.

Conclusions

The pattern and significance of lipid profiles were different according to the grade of kidney function. TG/HDL-C should be additionally considered as a predictive marker for CVD and mortality along with LDL-C in patients with CKD.

Causal effects of education on chronic kidney disease: a Mendelian randomization study

Background

Poor socio-economic status, including low education attainment, has been reported in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. We aimed to investigate the causal effects of education attainment on the risk of CKD.

Methods

The study was an observational cohort study including Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. First, the clinical association between education attainment years as the exposure and prevalent CKD Stages 3–5 as the outcome was investigated by multivariable logistic regression in 308 741 individuals 40–69 years of age from the UK Biobank. MR analysis was performed with a previously reported genetic instrument from a genome-wide association meta-analysis of education attainment. Two-sample MR was performed with summary statistics for CKD in 567 460 individuals with European ancestry in the CKDGen genome-wide association meta-analysis. The findings were replicated by allele score–based MR in 321 260 individuals of white British ancestry in the UK Biobank with quality-controlled genetic data.

Results

Higher education attainment was significantly associated with lower adjusted odds for CKD in the clinical analysis {>17 years versus <16 years, adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.910 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.849–0.975]}. The causal estimates obtained by the inverse variance method in the two-sample MR indicated that higher genetically predicted education attainment causally reduced the risk of CKD [OR 0.934 (95% CI 0.873–0.999)]. Allele score–based MR also supported that higher education attainment was causally linked to a decreased risk of CKD [adjusted OR 0.944 (95% CI 0.922–0.966)].

Conclusion

The study suggests that higher education attainment causally reduces the risk of CKD development in the general population.

Impact of variability in estimated glomerular filtration rate on major clinical outcomes: A nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), commonly estimated using the serum creatinine value, often fluctuates throughout the serial measurement. The clinical significance of GFR variation among the general population with normal renal function has not yet been demonstrated. Thus, we explored the impact of GFR variability on adverse clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A nationwide retrospective cohort study using the Korean National Health Insurance System database was performed. National health screening examinees who underwent creatinine measurement ≥3 times between 2012 and 2016 were considered. Those with eGFR under 60 mL/min/m2 were excluded. The fluctuation of eGFR was represented with variability independent of the mean (VIM) index; which was calculated by the standard deviation divided by the exponent of the regression coefficient of the mean. Then, the risks of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and death were assessed according to the quartiles of the VIM.

RESULTS

Of total 3,538,500 participants, 0.29% of myocardial infarction (MI), 0.14% of stroke, 0.36% of deaths were observed during the median follow up of 3.27 years. Participants with the highest VIM index, which represents the highest eGFR variability, were significantly associated with an increased risk of MI (hazard ratio [HR]; 1.10, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]; 1.04-1.16), stroke (HR: 1.16; 95% CI 1.09-1.23), and death (HR: 1.18; 95% CI 1.12-1.24). The elevated risk of adverse events was consistent after the multivariate adjustment with potential confounding factors, except the risk of MI (HR 1.06; 95% 1.00-1.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased eGFR variability exhibited an association with major clinical outcomes, indicating that monitoring eGFR variability might be a useful parameter for predicting the adverse outcomes.

Association Between Moderate-to-Vigorous Physical Activity and the Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events or Mortality in People With Various Metabolic Syndrome Status: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study Including 6 Million People

Background A population-scale evidence for the association between moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MV-PA) and risks of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or all-cause mortality in people with various metabolic syndrome (MetS) status is warranted. Methods and Results We performed a nationwide retrospective cohort study based on the claims database of South Korea. We included people who received ≥3 national health screenings from 2009 to 2013 without a previous MACE history. We determined the MetS status of 6 108 077 people: MetS-chronic (N=864 063), MetS-developed (N=348 163), MetS-recovery (N=348 313), and MetS-free (N=4 547 538). The exposure was self-reported MV-PA frequencies. The outcome was incident MACEs or all-cause mortality. The incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated with adjustments for clinical/demographic characteristics. During the median follow-up of 4.28 years, 78 770 and 51 840 people experienced MACEs or died, respectively. Those who engaged in MV-PA had a significantly lower risk of MACEs or all-cause mortality than those not engaged in MV-PA in every spectrum of MetS. Even among those who were free from MetS (for MACEs, IRR 0.94 [0.92-0.97], for all-cause mortality, IRR 0.85 [0.82-0.87]) or who had already recovered from MetS (for MACEs, IRR 0.89 [0.84-0.95], for all-cause mortality, IRR 0.74 [0.68-0.81]), 1 to 2 days per week of MV-PA were significantly associated with lower risk of the adverse outcomes when compared with not being engaged in MV-PA. Those who were engaged in MV-PA more frequently also had significantly lower risks of MACEs or all-cause mortality. Conclusions This nationwide study suggests that MV-PA may be recommended to the general population regardless of recent MetS status.

Short or Long Sleep Duration and CKD: A Mendelian Randomization Study

BACKGROUND

Studies have found sleeping behaviors, such as sleep duration, to be associated with kidney function and cardiovascular disease risk. However, whether short or long sleep duration is a causative factor for kidney function impairment has been rarely studied.

METHODS

We studied data from participants aged 40-69 years in the UK Biobank prospective cohort, including 25,605 self-reporting short-duration sleep (<6 hours per 24 hours), 404,550 reporting intermediate-duration sleep (6-8 hours), and 35,659 reporting long-duration sleep (≥9 hours) in the clinical analysis. Using logistic regression analysis, we investigated the observational association between the sleep duration group and prevalent CKD stages 3-5, analyzed by logistic regression analysis. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis involving 321,260 White British individuals using genetic instruments (genetic variants linked with short- or long-duration sleep behavior as instrumental variables). We performed genetic risk score analysis as a one-sample MR and extended the finding with a two-sample MR analysis with CKD outcome information from the independent CKDGen Consortium genome-wide association study meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Short or long sleep duration clinically associated with higher prevalence of CKD compared with intermediate duration. The genetic risk score for short (but not long) sleep was significantly related to CKD (per unit reflecting a two-fold increase in the odds of the phenotype; adjusted odds ratio, 1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.25 to 2.60). Two-sample MR analysis demonstrated causal effects of short sleep duration on CKD by the inverse variance weighted method, supported by causal estimates from MR-Egger regression.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support an adverse effect of a short sleep duration on kidney function. Clinicians may encourage patients to avoid short-duration sleeping behavior to reduce CKD risk.

An independent validation of the kidney failure risk equation in an Asian population

Predicting the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) progression facilitates appropriate nephrology care of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Previously, the kidney failure risk equations (KFREs) were developed and validated in several cohorts. The purpose of this study is to validate the KFREs in a Korean population and to recalibrate the equations. A total of 38,905 adult patients, including 13,244 patients with CKD stages G3–G5, who were referred to nephrology were recruited. Using the original KFREs (4-, 6- and 8-variable equations) and recalibration equations, we predicted the risk of 2- and 5-year ESRD progression. All analyses were conducted in CKD stages G3-G5 patients as well as the total population. In CKD stages G3–G5 patients, All the original 4-, 6- and 8-variable equations showed excellent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 and 0.83 for the 2- and 5-year risk of ESRD, respectively. The results of net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination index and Brier score showed that recalibration improved the prediction models in some cases. The original KFREs showed high discrimination in both CKD stages G3–G5 patients and the total population referred to nephrology in this large Korean cohort. KFREs can be implemented in Korean health systems and can guide nephrology referrals and other CKD-related treatment decisions.

Glomerular Hyperfiltration and Cancer: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Glomerular hyperfiltration is associated with all-cause mortality. Herein, we evaluated the association between glomerular hyperfiltration and the development of cancer, the most common cause of death, in an Asian population.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the National Health Insurance Service database of Korea for people who received national health screenings from 2012 to 2013. Glomerular hyperfiltration was defined as the 95th percentile and greater after stratification by sex and age decile. We performed a multivariate Cox regression analysis using glomerular hyperfiltration at the first health screening as the exposure variable and cancer development as the outcome variable to evaluate the impact of glomerular hyperfiltration on the development of cancer.

RESULTS

A total of 1,953,123 examinations for patients with a median follow-up time of 4.4 years were included in this study. Among the 8 different site-specific cancer categories, digestive organs showed significant associations between glomerular hyperfiltration and cancer. The population with glomerular hyperfiltration showed an increased risk for stomach cancer [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.22], colorectal cancer (aHR = 1.16), and liver or intrahepatic malignancy (aHR = 1.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Glomerular hyperfiltration was associated with an increased risk for the development of cancer in specific organs, such as the stomach, colorectum, and liver and intrahepatic organ.

IMPACT

Glomerular hyperfiltration needs to be considered a significant sign of the need to evaluate the possibility of hidden adverse health conditions, including malignancies.

Reduced risk for chronic kidney disease after recovery from metabolic syndrome: A nationwide population-based study

Background

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is linked to various chronic comorbidities, including chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, few large studies have addressed whether recovery from MetS is associated with reduction in the risks of such comorbidities.

Methods

This nationwide population-based study in Korea screened 10,664,268 people who received national health screening ≥ 3 times between 2012 and 2016. Those with a history of major cardiovascular events or preexisting CKD were excluded. We classified study groups into four, according to the course of MetS state, as defined by the harmonizing criteria. The main study outcome was incidental CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² which was persistent until the last health exams). The study outcomes were investigated using multivariable logistic regression analysis, which was adjusted for clinical variables and the previous severity of MetS.

Results

Four study groups included 6,315,301 subjects: 4,537,869 people without MetS, 1,034,605 with chronic MetS, 438,287 who developed MetS, and 304,540 who recovered from preexisting MetS. Those who developed MetS demonstrated higher risk of CKD (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.26 [1.23-1.29]) than did those who did not develop MetS. In contrast, MetS-recovery was associated with decreased risk of CKD (adjusted OR, 0.84 [0.82-0.86]) than that in people with chronic MetS. Among the MetS components, change in hypertension was associated with the largest difference in CKD risk.

Conclusion

Reducing or preventing MetS may reduce the burden of CKD on a population-scale. Clinicians should consider the clinical importance of altering MetS status for risk of CKD.

P1018LIPID PROFILES AND RISK OF MAJOR ADVERSE CARDIOVASCULAR EVENTS IN CKD AND DIABETES: A NATIONWIDE POPULATION-BASED STUDY

Background and Aims

The association of lipid parameters with cardiovascular outcomes and the impact of kidney function on this association have not been thoroughly evaluated in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients with diabetes.

Method

We reviewed the National Health Insurance Database of Korea, containing the data of 10,505,818 subjects who received routine check-ups in 2009. We analyzed the association of lipid profile parameters with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) risk and all-cause mortality in a nationally representative cohort of 51,757 lipid-lowering medication-naïve patients who had CKD and diabetes.

Results

Advanced CKD patients with eGFR &lt;30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n=10,775) had lower serum total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) but higher non-HDL-c levels and triglyceride (TG) to HDL-c ratios. There was a positive linear association between serum LDL-c and MACE risk in both early and advanced CKD patients (P &lt;0.001 for trend). A U-shaped relationship was observed between serum LDL-c and all-cause mortality (the 4th and 8th octile groups; lowest hazard ratio [HR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-1.05 and highest HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.26, respectively). A similar pattern remained in both early and advanced CKD patients. The TG/HDL-c ratio categories showed a positive linear association for MACE risk in early CKD (P &lt;0.001 for trend), but this correlation disappeared in advanced CKD patients. There was no correlation between the serum TG/HDL-c ratio and all-cause mortality in the study patients.

Conclusion

The LDL-c level predicted the risk for MACEs and all-cause mortality in both early and advanced CKD patients with diabetes, although the patterns of the association differed from each other. However, the TG/HDL-c ratio categories could not predict the risk for either MACEs or all-cause mortality in advanced CKD patients with diabetes, except that the TG/HDL-c ratio predicted MACE risk in early CKD patients with diabetes.

Lipid profiles and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in CKD and diabetes: A nationwide population-based study

The association of lipid parameters with cardiovascular outcomes and the impact of kidney function on this association have not been thoroughly evaluated in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients with diabetes. We reviewed the National Health Insurance Database of Korea, containing the data of 10,505,818 subjects who received routine check-ups in 2009. We analyzed the association of lipid profile parameters with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) risk and all-cause mortality in a nationally representative cohort of 51,757 lipid-lowering medication-naïve patients who had CKD and diabetes. Advanced CKD patients with eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m² (n = 10,775) had lower serum total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) but higher non-HDL-c levels and triglyceride (TG) to HDL-c ratios. There was a positive linear association between serum LDL-c and MACE risk in both early and advanced CKD patients (P <0.001 for trend), except for the category of LDL-c 30–49 mg/dL in extremely low LDL-c subgroup analyses. A U-shaped relationship was observed between serum LDL-c and all-cause mortality (the 4^th and 8^th octile groups; lowest hazard ratio [HR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87–1.05 and highest HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04–1.26, respectively). A similar pattern remained in both early and advanced CKD patients. The TG/HDL-c ratio categories showed a positive linear association for MACE risk in early CKD (P <0.001 for trend), but this correlation disappeared in advanced CKD patients. There was no correlation between the serum TG/HDL-c ratio and all-cause mortality in the study patients. The LDL-c level predicted the risk for MACEs and all-cause mortality in both early and advanced CKD patients with diabetes, although the patterns of the association differed from each other. However, the TG/HDL-c ratio categories could not predict the risk for either MACEs or all-cause mortality in advanced CKD patients with diabetes, except that the TG/HDL-c ratio predicted MACE risk in early CKD patients with diabetes.

Copeptin with high-sensitivity troponin at presentation is not inferior to serial troponin measurements for ruling out acute myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare the multi-marker strategy (copeptin and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I [hs-cTnI]) with serial hs-cTnI measurements to rule out acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients with chest pain.

METHODS

This prospective observational study was performed in a single emergency department. To test the non-inferiority margin of 4% in terms of negative predictive value (NPV) between the multi-marker strategy (0 hour) and serial hs-cTnI measurements (0 and 2 hours), 262 participants were required. Samples for copeptin and hs-cTnI assays were collected at presentation (0 hour) and after 2 hours. The measured biomarkers were considered abnormal when hs-cTnI was >26.2 ng/L and when copeptin was >10 pmol/L.

RESULTS

AMI was diagnosed in 28 patients (10.7%). The NPV of the multi-marker strategy was 100% (160/160; 95% confidence interval [CI], 97.7% to 100%), which was not inferior to that of serial hs-cTnI measurements (201/201; 100%; 95% CI, 98.2% to 100%). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of the multi-marker strategy were 100% (95% CI, 87.7% to 100%), 68.1% (95% CI, 61.7% to 74.0%), and 27.2% (95% CI, 18.9% to 36.8%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of serial hs-cTnI measurements were 100% (95% CI, 87.7% to 100%), 85.5% (95% CI, 80.4% to 89.8%), and 45.2% (95% CI, 32.5% to 58.3%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The multi-marker strategy (copeptin and hs-cTnI measurement) was not inferior to serial hs-cTnI measurements in terms of NPV for AMI diagnosis, with a sensitivity and NPV of 100%. Copeptin may help in the early rule-out of AMI in patients with chest pain.

Machine learning algorithm to predict mortality in patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy

Background

Previous scoring models such as the Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scoring systems do not adequately predict mortality of patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) for severe acute kidney injury. Accordingly, the present study applies machine learning algorithms to improve prediction accuracy for this patient subset.

Methods

We randomly divided a total of 1571 adult patients who started CRRT for acute kidney injury into training (70%, n = 1094) and test (30%, n = 477) sets. The primary output consisted of the probability of mortality during admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) or hospital. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of several machine learning algorithms with that of the APACHE II, SOFA, and the new abbreviated mortality scoring system for acute kidney injury with CRRT (MOSAIC model) results.

Results

For the ICU mortality, the random forest model showed the highest AUC (0.784 [0.744–0.825]), and the artificial neural network and extreme gradient boost models demonstrated the next best results (0.776 [0.735–0.818]). The AUC of the random forest model was higher than 0.611 (0.583–0.640), 0.677 (0.651–0.703), and 0.722 (0.677–0.767), as achieved by APACHE II, SOFA, and MOSAIC, respectively. The machine learning models also predicted in-hospital mortality better than APACHE II, SOFA, and MOSAIC.

Conclusion

Machine learning algorithms increase the accuracy of mortality prediction for patients undergoing CRRT for acute kidney injury compared with previous scoring models.

Glomerular hyperfiltration is associated with dementia: A nationwide population-based study

Background

Glomerular hyperfiltration may be a clinical phenotype of endothelial dysfunction. Endothelial dysfunction may cause vascular dementia through the deterioration of cerebral blood flow. We aimed to identify the risk of dementia in people with glomerular hyperfiltration.

Methods

Using the Korean National Health Information Database, we included subjects aged ≥45 years who underwent national health screening examinations between 2012 and 2015 and who had no previous history of end-stage renal disease or dementia (n = 2,244,582). The primary exposure was glomerular hyperfiltration. We divided the subjects into groups by sex and five-year age intervals and categorized each group into 8 intervals according to estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR). The subjects with an eGFR ≥95^th percentile in each group were defined as the hyperfiltration group. The outcomes were development of all types of dementia, Alzheimer's dementia and vascular dementia. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the hazard ratios (HRs) for outcomes.

Results

The Hyperfiltration group showed a higher risk for the development of all types of dementia [adjusted HR 1.09 (95% CI, 1.03–1.15)] and vascular dementia [adjusted HR 1.33 (95% CI, 1.14–1.55)] than the reference group. However, the association between hyperfiltration and Alzheimer's dementia was not statistically significant.

Conclusions

Glomerular hyperfiltration may be associated with dementia. In this respect, subjects with glomerular hyperfiltration should be monitored more closely for signs and symptoms of dementia.

Altered Risk for Cardiovascular Events With Changes in the Metabolic Syndrome Status: A Nationwide Population-Based Study of Approximately 10 Million Persons

BACKGROUND

Population-scale evidence for the association between dynamic changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) status and alterations in the risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether recovery from or development of MetS in a population is associated with an altered risk for MACE.

DESIGN

Nationwide cohort study.

SETTING

An analysis based on the National Health Insurance Database of Korea.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 27 161 051 persons who received national health screenings from 2009 to 2014 were screened. Those with a history of MACE were excluded. We determined the MetS status of 9 553 042 persons using the following harmonizing criteria: MetS-chronic (n = 1 486 485), MetS-developed (n = 587 088), MetS-recovery (n = 538 806), and MetS-free (n = 6 940 663).

MEASUREMENTS

The outcome was the occurrence of MACE, including acute myocardial infarction, revascularization, and acute ischemic stroke, identified from the claims database. The incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated with adjustments for body mass index, comorbidity scores, previous metabolic variables, and other clinical or demographic variables.

RESULTS

At a median follow-up of 3.54 years, the MetS-recovery group (incidence rate, 4.55 per 1000 person-years) had a significantly lower MACE risk (adjusted IRR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.83 to 0.87]) than that of the MetS-chronic group (incidence rate, 8.52 per 1000 person-years). The MetS-developed group (incidence rate, 6.05 per 1000 person-years) had a significantly higher MACE risk (adjusted IRR, 1.36 [CI, 1.33 to 1.39]) than that of the MetS-free group (incidence rate, 1.92 per 1000 person-years). Among the MetS components, change in hypertension was associated with the largest difference in MACE risk.

LIMITATION

Limited assessment of mortality and short follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Recovery from MetS was significantly associated with decreased risk for MACE, whereas development of MetS was associated with increased risk.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Korea Healthcare Technology R&D Project, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Republic of Korea.

Emergency physician-based intensive care unit for critically ill patients visiting emergency department

BACKGROUND

To provide a prompt and optimal intensive care to critically ill patients visiting our emergency department (ED), we set up and ran a specific type of emergency intensive care unit (EICU) managed by emergency physician (EP) intensivists. We investigated whether this EICU reduced the time interval from ED arrival to ICU transfer (ED-ICU interval) without altering mortality.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study conducted in a tertiary referral hospital. We collected data from ED patients who were admitted to the EICU (EICU group) and other ICUs including medical, surgical, and cardiopulmonary ICUs (other ICUs group), from August 2014 to July 2017. We compared these two groups with respect to demographic findings, including the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, ED-ICU interval, ICU mortality, and hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Among the 3440 critically ill patients who visited ED, 1815 (52.8%) were admitted to the EICU during the study period. The ED-ICU interval for the EICU group was significantly shorter than that for the other ICUs group by 27.5% (5.0 ± 4.9 vs. 6.9 ± 5.4 h, p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the ICU mortality (odds ratio = 1.062, 95% confidence interval 0.862-1.308, p = 0.571) and hospital mortality (odds ratio = 1.093, 95% confidence interval 0.892-1.338, p = 0.391) of the EICU group were not inferior to those of the other ICUs group.

CONCLUSIONS

The EICU run by EP intensivists reduced the time interval from ED arrival to ICU transfer without altering hospital mortality.

Long-term impact of dialysis-requiring AKI during the perioperative period of liver transplantation on postdischarge outcomes

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) are prone to dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury (AKI-D). However, long-term prognoses among them need further investigation, as overall survival after LT is improving.

METHODS

A nationwide, population-based cohort study was conducted using the data of Korean National Health Insurance System between 2006 and 2015. The patients who received dialysis during the perioperative period of LT were in the AKI-D group, and the control group included those who did not undergo dialysis.

RESULTS

Among the 6879 patients who underwent LT, 968 were in the AKI-D group. All-cause mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.52 (1.26-1.83), P < 0.001], end-stage renal disease (ESRD) progression [adjusted HR: 2.93 (2.34-3.66), P < 0.001], and ICU readmission [adjusted HR: 1.70 (1.44-2.01), P < 0.001] within and after 90 days from discharge were increased in the AKI-D group. When analyzed among those who recovered from dialysis at discharge, overall outcomes were similar to those of the AKI-D group, except the long-term mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

AKI-D during the perioperative period of LT was associated with worse mortality, ESRD progression, and ICU readmission risk. The results of renal-recovered patients could indicate clinicians that achievement of dialysis independence is important to gain favorable long-term postdischarge survival.

Association of CKD with Incident Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The incidence and risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in people with predialysis CKD has rarely been studied, although CKD prevalence is increasing in certain countries where Mycobacterium tuberculosis is endemic. We aimed to investigate the association between predialysis CKD and active Mycobacterium tuberculosis risks in a nation with moderate Mycobacterium tuberculosis risk.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

In this nationwide retrospective cohort study, we reviewed the National Health Insurance Database of Korea, screening 17,020,339 people who received a national health screening two or more times from 2012 to 2016. Predialysis CKD was identified with consecutive laboratory results indicative of CKD (e.g., persistent eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m² or dipstick albuminuria). People with preexisting active Mycobacterium tuberculosis or kidney replacement therapy were excluded. A 1:1 matched control group without CKD was included with matching for age, sex, low-income status, and smoking history. The risk of incident active Mycobacterium tuberculosis, identified in the claims database, was assessed by the multivariable Cox regression model, which included both matched and unmatched variables (e.g., body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, places of residence, and other comorbidities).

RESULTS

We included 408,873 people with predialysis CKD and the same number of controls. We identified 1704 patients with active Mycobacterium tuberculosis (incidence rate =137.5/100,000 person-years) in the predialysis CKD group and 1518 patients with active Mycobacterium tuberculosis (incidence rate =121.9/100,000 person-years) in the matched controls. The active Mycobacterium tuberculosis risk was significantly higher in the predialysis CKD group (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.13 to 1.30). The risk factors for active Mycobacterium tuberculosis among the predialysis CKD group were old age, men, current smoking, low income, underlying diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes CKD stage 1 (eGFR≥90 ml/min per 1.73 m² with persistent albuminuria) or stage 4/5 without dialysis (eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m²).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Korean population, the incidence of active Mycobacterium tuberculosis was higher in people with versus without predialysis CKD.