Depressive Symptom Subgroups and Their Association with Prevalent and Incident Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study

BACKGROUND

We sought to identify depressive symptom subgroups in a community sample of young adults, investigate their stability over time, and determine their association with prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors.

METHOD

Participants were 3377 adults from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study. Using latent class and latent transition analysis, we derived subgroups based on items of the 20-item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale in 1990, and examined patterns of change over a 10-year period (1990-2000). Cox regression models were used to examine associations between subgroup membership and prevalent (2000) and incident (2000 to 2016) obesity, hypertension, and diabetes.

RESULTS

Three baseline subgroups were identified and labeled: "No Symptoms" (63.5%), "Lack of Positive Affect" (PA, 25.6%), and "Depressed Mood" (10.9%). At 10-year follow-up, individuals in "No Symptoms" subgroup had the highest probability (0.84) of being classified within the same subgroup. Participants classified as "Lack of PA" were likely (0.46) to remain in the same subgroup or be classified as "No Symptoms." Participants in the "Depressed Mood" were most likely to transition to the "Lack of PA" subgroup (0.38). Overall, 30.5% of participants transitioned between subgroups, with 11.4% classified as "Worsening" and 19.1% as "Improving." Relative to the "No Symptoms Stable," other subgroups ("Depressed Stable," "Worsening," and "Improving") were associated with prevalent obesity and hypertension.

CONCLUSION

We identified distinct depressive symptom subgroups that are variably stable over time, and their change patterns were differentially associated with CVD risk factor prevalence.

US County-Level Variation in Preterm Birth Rates, 2007-2019

Importance

Preterm birth is a leading cause of preventable neonatal morbidity and mortality. Preterm birth rates at the national level may mask important geographic variation in rates and trends at the county level.

Objective

To estimate age-standardized preterm birth rates by US county from 2007 to 2019.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This serial cross-sectional study used data from the National Center for Health Statistics composed of all live births in the US between 2007 and 2019. Data analyses were performed between March 22, 2022, and September 29, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Age-standardized preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) and secondarily early preterm birth (<34 weeks' gestation) rates by county and year calculated with a validated small area estimation model (hierarchical bayesian spatiotemporal model) and percent change in preterm birth rates using log-linear regression models.

Results

Between 2007 and 2019, there were 51 044 482 live births in 2383 counties. In 2007, the national age-standardized preterm birth rate was 12.6 (95% CI, 12.6-12.7) per 100 live births. Preterm birth rates varied significantly among counties, with an absolute difference between the 90th and 10th percentile counties of 6.4 (95% CI, 6.2-6.7). The gap between the highest and lowest counties for preterm births was 20.7 per 100 live births in 2007. Several counties in the Southeast consistently had the highest preterm birth rates compared with counties in California and New England, which had the lowest preterm birth rates. Although there was no statistically significant change in preterm birth rates between 2007 and 2019 at the national level (percent change, -5.0%; 95% CI, -10.7% to 0.9%), increases occurred in 15.4% (95% CI, 14.1%-16.9%) of counties. The absolute and relative geographic inequalities were similar across all maternal age groups. Higher quartile of the Social Vulnerability Index was associated with higher preterm birth rates (quartile 4 vs quartile 1 risk ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.31-1.36), which persisted across the study period. Similar patterns were observed for early preterm birth rates.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this serial cross-sectional study of county-level preterm and early preterm birth rates, substantial geographic disparities were observed, which were associated with place-based social disadvantage. Stability in aggregated rates of preterm birth at the national level masked increases in nearly 1 in 6 counties between 2007 and 2019.

Neurodevelopmental vulnerability to psychosis: developmentally-based methods enable detection of early life inhibitory control deficits that predict psychotic-like experiences at the transition to adolescence

BACKGROUND

Inhibitory control develops in early childhood, and atypical development may be a measurable marker of risk for the later development of psychosis. Additionally, inhibitory control may be a target for intervention.

METHODS

Behavioral performance on a developmentally appropriate Go/No-Go task including a frustration manipulation completed by children ages 3-5 years (early childhood; n = 107) was examined in relation to psychotic-like experiences (PLEs; 'tween'; ages 9-12), internalizing symptoms, and externalizing symptoms self-reported at long-term follow-up (pre-adolescence; ages 8-11). ERP N200 amplitude for a subset of these children (n = 34) with electrophysiological data during the task was examined as an index of inhibitory control.

RESULTS

Children with lower accuracy on No-Go trials compared to Go trials in early childhood (F(1,101) = 3.976, p = 0.049), evidenced higher PLEs at the transition to adolescence 4-9 years later, reflecting a specific deficit in inhibitory control. No association was observed with internalizing or externalizing symptoms. Decreased accuracy during the frustration manipulation predicted higher internalizing, F(2,202) = 5.618, p = 0.004, and externalizing symptoms, F(2,202) = 4.663, p = 0.010. Smaller N200 amplitudes were observed on No-Go trials for those with higher PLEs, F(1,101) = 6.075, p = 0.020; no relationship was observed for internalizing or externalizing symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term follow-up demonstrates for the first time a specific deficit in inhibitory control behaviorally and electrophysiology, for individuals who later report more PLEs. Decreases in task performance under frustration induction indicated risk for internalizing and externalizing symptoms. These findings suggest that pathophysiological mechanisms for psychosis are relevant and discriminable in early childhood, and further, suggest an identifiable and potentially modifiable target for early intervention.

Pulmonary emphysema subtypes defined by unsupervised machine learning on CT scans

BACKGROUND

Treatment and preventative advances for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have been slow due, in part, to limited subphenotypes. We tested if unsupervised machine learning on CT images would discover CT emphysema subtypes with distinct characteristics, prognoses and genetic associations.

METHODS

New CT emphysema subtypes were identified by unsupervised machine learning on only the texture and location of emphysematous regions on CT scans from 2853 participants in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS), a COPD case-control study, followed by data reduction. Subtypes were compared with symptoms and physiology among 2949 participants in the population-based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung Study and with prognosis among 6658 MESA participants. Associations with genome-wide single-nucleotide-polymorphisms were examined.

RESULTS

The algorithm discovered six reproducible (interlearner intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.91-1.00) CT emphysema subtypes. The most common subtype in SPIROMICS, the combined bronchitis-apical subtype, was associated with chronic bronchitis, accelerated lung function decline, hospitalisations, deaths, incident airflow limitation and a gene variant near DRD1, which is implicated in mucin hypersecretion (p=1.1 ×10-8). The second, the diffuse subtype was associated with lower weight, respiratory hospitalisations and deaths, and incident airflow limitation. The third was associated with age only. The fourth and fifth visually resembled combined pulmonary fibrosis emphysema and had distinct symptoms, physiology, prognosis and genetic associations. The sixth visually resembled vanishing lung syndrome.

CONCLUSION

Large-scale unsupervised machine learning on CT scans defined six reproducible, familiar CT emphysema subtypes that suggest paths to specific diagnosis and personalised therapies in COPD and pre-COPD.

Incorporating longitudinal history of risk factors into atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk prediction using deep learning

Background

It is increasingly clear that longitudinal risk factor levels and trajectories are related to risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) above and beyond single measures. Currently used in clinical care, the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) are based on regression methods that predict ASCVD risk based on cross-sectional risk factor levels. Deep learning (DL) models have been developed to incorporate longitudinal data for risk prediction but its benefit for ASCVD risk prediction relative to the traditional Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) remain unknown.

Objective

To develop a ASCVD risk prediction model that incorporates longitudinal risk factors using deep learning.

Methods

Our study included 15,565 participants from four cardiovascular disease cohorts free of baseline ASCVD who were followed for adjudicated ASCVD. Ten-year ASCVD risk was calculated in the training set using our benchmark, the PCE, and a longitudinal DL model, Dynamic-DeepHit. Predictors included those incorporated in the PCE: sex, race, age, total cholesterol, high density lipid cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension treatment and smoking. The discrimination and calibration performance of the two models were evaluated in an overall hold-out testing dataset.

Results

Of the 15,565 participants in our dataset, 2,170 (13.9%) developed ASCVD. The performance of the longitudinal DL model that incorporated 8 years of longitudinal risk factor data improved upon that of the PCE [AUROC: 0.815 (CI: 0.782-0.844) vs 0.792 (CI: 0.760-0.825)] and the net reclassification index was 0.385. The brier score for the DL model was 0.0514 compared with 0.0542 in the PCE.

Conclusion

Incorporating longitudinal risk factors in ASCVD risk prediction using DL can improve model discrimination and calibration.

Race- and Sex-Specific Factors Associated With Age-Related Slopes in Systolic Blood Pressure: Findings From the CARDIA Study

BACKGROUND

Although blood pressure (BP) increases throughout young adulthood for most individuals, the age-related slope is not uniform. This study aimed to assess associations of demographic, clinical, behavioral, psychosocial, and neighborhood characteristics with age-related BP slope among 4 race-sex groups who participated in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study.

METHODS

Individuals (n=3554) aged 18 to 30 years were included in this analysis if they had normal BP at baseline and ≥2 BP measurements during the years 1985/1986 to 2015/2016. Associations of exposure variables with systolic BP slope were assessed using multivariate linear models.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up of ~30 years, greater decade increases in systolic BP were estimated among Black than White participants (mean difference between Black females and White females: 3.0 mm Hg/decade; between Black males and White males: 4.7 mm Hg/decade). The exposure risk factors associated with greater increases in systolic BP throughout adulthood varied by race and sex. None of these factors were associated with increases in systolic BP in all race-sex groups. Parent history of high BP was associated with a steeper positive slope among Black females (effect size per decade: 1.1 [95% CI, 0.6-1.6]; P<0.01), Black males (0.6 [95% CI, 0.02-1.2]; P<0.05), and White females (0.6 [95% CI, 0.2-1.0]; P<0.01). Other risk factors were associated with greater age-related yearly increases in systolic BP among 1 or 2 of the 4 race-sex groups or were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Culturally tailored BP reduction approach should be considered in conjunction with primordial prevention, to moderate increases in BP throughout adulthood.

Comparison of cardiovascular health profiles across population surveys from five high- to low-income countries

Aims

With the greatest burden of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality increasingly observed in lower-income countries least prepared for this epidemic, focus is widening from risk factor management alone to primordial prevention to maintain high levels of cardiovascular health (CVH) across the life course. To facilitate this, the American Heart Association (AHA) developed CVH scoring guidelines to evaluate and track CVH. We aimed to compare the prevalence and trajectories of high CVH across the life course using nationally representative adult CVH data from five diverse high- to low-income countries.

Methods

Surveys with CVH variables (physical activity, cigarette smoking, body mass, blood pressure, blood glucose, and total cholesterol levels) were identified in Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Brazil, England, and the United States (US). Participants were included if they were 18-69y, not pregnant, and had data for these CVH metrics. Comparable data were harmonized and each of the CVH metrics was scored using AHA guidelines as high (2), moderate (1), or low (0) to create total CVH scores with higher scores representing better CVH. High CVH prevalence by age was compared creating country CVH trajectories.

Results

The analysis included 28,092 adults (Ethiopia n=7686, 55.2% male; Bangladesh n=6731, 48.4% male; Brazil n=7241, 47.9 % male; England n=2691, 49.5% male, and the US n=3743, 50.3% male). As country income level increased, prevalence of high CVH decreased (>90% in Ethiopia, >68% in Bangladesh and under 65% in the remaining countries). This pattern remained using either five or all six CVH metrics and following exclusion of underweight participants. While a decline in CVH with age was observed for all countries, higher income countries showed lower prevalence of high CVH already by age 18y. Excess body weight appeared the main driver of poor CVH in higher income countries, while current smoking was highest in Bangladesh.

Conclusion

Harmonization of nationally representative survey data on CVH trajectories with age in 5 highly diverse countries supports our hypothesis that CVH decline with age may be universal. Interventions to promote and preserve high CVH throughout the life course are needed in all populations, tailored to country-specific time courses of the decline. In countries where CVH remains relatively high, protection of whole societies from risk factor epidemics may still be feasible.

Cardiovascular health trajectories from age 2-12: a pediatric electronic health record study

PURPOSE

Many children have non-ideal cardiovascular health (CVH), but little is known about the course of CVH in early childhood. We identified CVH trajectories in children and assess the generalizability of these trajectories in an external sample.

METHODS

We used data spanning 2010-2018 from children aged 2-12 years within the Chicago Area Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Network-an electronic health record network. Four clinical systems comprised the derivation sample and a fifth the validation sample. Body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose were categorized as ideal, intermediate, and poor using clinical measurements, laboratory readings, and International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes and summed for an overall CVH score. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to create CVH score trajectories which were assessed for classification accuracy in the validation sample.

RESULTS

Using data from 122,363 children (47% female, 47% non-Hispanic White) three trajectories were identified: 59.5% maintained high levels of clinical CVH, 23.4% had high levels of CVH that declined, and 17.1% had intermediate levels of CVH that further declined with age. A similar classification emerged when the trajectories were fitted in the validation sample.

CONCLUSIONS

Stratification of CVH was present by age 2, implicating the need for early life and preconception prevention strategies.

Multiple Prior Live Births Are Associated With Cardiac Remodeling and Heart Failure Risk in Women

OBJECTIVE

Greater parity has been associated with cardiovascular disease risk. We sought to find whether the effects on cardiac remodeling and heart failure risk are clear.

METHODS

We examined the association of number of live births with echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function in participants of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) using multivariable linear regression. We next examined the association of parity with incident heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) or reduced (HFrEF) ejection fraction using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards model in a pooled analysis of n = 12,635 participants in the FHS, the Cardiovascular Health Study, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease. Secondary analyses included major cardiovascular disease, myocardia infarction and stroke.

RESULTS

Among n = 3931 FHS participants (mean age 48 ± 13 years), higher numbers of live births were associated with worse left ventricular fractional shortening (multivariable β -1.11 (0.31); P = 0.0005 in ≥ 5 live births vs nulliparous women) and worse cardiac mechanics, including global circumferential strain and longitudinal and radial dyssynchrony (P < 0.01 for all comparing ≥ 5 live births vs nulliparity). When examining HF subtypes, women with ≥ 5 live births were at higher risk of developing future HFrEF compared with nulliparous women (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.19-3.12; P = 0.008); by contrast, a lower risk of HFpEF was observed (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37-0.91; P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Greater numbers of live births are associated with worse cardiac structure and function. There was no association with overall HF, but a higher number of live births was associated with greater risk for incident HFrEF.

Life Course Cardiovascular Health: Risk Factors, Outcomes, and Interventions

Since it was first defined by the American Heart Association in 2010, cardiovascular health (CVH) has been extensively studied across the life course. In this review, we present the current literature examining early life predictors of CVH, the later life outcomes of child CVH, and the relatively few interventions which have specifically addressed how to preserve and promote CVH across populations. We find that research on CVH has demonstrated that prenatal and childhood exposures are consistently associated with CVH trajectories from childhood through adulthood. CVH measured at any point in life is strongly predictive of future cardiovascular disease, dementia, cancer, and mortality as well as a variety of other health outcomes. This speaks to the importance of intervening early to prevent the loss of optimal CVH and the accumulation of cardiovascular risk. Interventions to improve CVH are not common but those that have been published most often address multiple modifiable risk factors among individuals within the community. Relatively few interventions have been focused on improving the construct of CVH in children. Future research is needed that will be both effective, scalable, and sustainable. Technology including digital platforms as well as implementation science will play key roles in achieving this vision. In addition, community engagement at all stages of this research is critical. Lastly, prevention strategies that are tailored to the individual and their context may help us achieve the promise of personalized prevention and help promote ideal CVH in childhood and across the life course.

Association of dysanapsis with mortality among older adults

Dysanapsis – an anthropometric mismatch between airway tree calibre and lung size that is common in the general population – is strongly associated with all-cause mortality and increases susceptibility to tobacco smoking-related diseases https://bit.ly/42oDe8J

Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Polygenic Risk Score for the Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Events

Importance

Coronary artery calcium score and polygenic risk score have each separately been proposed as novel markers to identify risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but no prior studies have directly compared these markers in the same cohorts.

Objective

To evaluate change in CHD risk prediction when a coronary artery calcium score, a polygenic risk score, or both are added to a traditional risk factor-based model.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Two observational population-based studies involving individuals aged 45 years through 79 years of European ancestry and free of clinical CHD at baseline: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study involved 1991 participants at 6 US centers and the Rotterdam Study (RS) involved 1217 in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

Exposure

Traditional risk factors were used to calculate CHD risk (eg, pooled cohort equations [PCEs]), computed tomography for the coronary artery calcium score, and genotyped samples for a validated polygenic risk score.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Model discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement (at the recommended risk threshold of 7.5%) for prediction of incident CHD events were assessed.

Results

The median age was 61 years in MESA and 67 years in RS. Both log (coronary artery calcium+1) and polygenic risk score were significantly associated with 10-year risk of incident CHD (hazards ratio per SD, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.08-3.26 and 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20-1.71, respectively), in MESA. The C statistic for the coronary artery calcium score was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.79) and for the polygenic risk score, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71). The change in the C statistic when each was added to the PCEs was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.06-0.13) for the coronary artery calcium score, 0.02 (95% CI, 0.00-0.04) for the polygenic risk score, and 0.10 (95% CI, 0.07-0.14) for both. Overall categorical net reclassification improvement was significant when the coronary artery calcium score (0.19; 95% CI, 0.06-0.28) but was not significant when the polygenic risk score (0.04; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.10) was added to the PCEs. Calibration of the PCEs and models with coronary artery calcium and/or polygenic risk scores was adequate (all χ2<20). Subgroup analysis stratified by the median age demonstrated similar findings. Similar findings were observed for 10-year risk in RS and in longer-term follow-up in MESA (median, 16.0 years).

Conclusions and Relevance

In 2 cohorts of middle-aged to older adults from the US and the Netherlands, the coronary artery calcium score had better discrimination than the polygenic risk score for risk prediction of CHD. In addition, the coronary artery calcium score but not the polygenic risk score significantly improved risk discrimination and risk reclassification for CHD when added to traditional risk factors.

Longitudinal trajectories of branched chain amino acids through young adulthood and diabetes in later life

BACKGROUNDElevated circulating branched chain amino acids (BCAAs), measured at a single time point in middle life, are strongly associated with an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). However, the longitudinal patterns of change in BCAAs through young adulthood and their association with DM in later life are unknown.METHODSWe serially measured BCAAs over 28 years in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, a prospective cohort of apparently healthy Black and White young adults at baseline. Trajectories of circulating BCAA concentrations from years 2-30 (for prevalent DM) or years 2-20 (for incident DM) were determined by latent class modeling.RESULTSAmong 3,081 apparently healthy young adults, trajectory analysis from years 2-30 revealed 3 distinct BCAA trajectory groups: low-stable (n = 1,427), moderate-stable (n = 1,384), and high-increasing (n = 270) groups. Male sex, higher body mass index, and higher atherogenic lipid fractions were more common in the moderate-stable and high-increasing groups. Higher risk of prevalent DM was associated with the moderate-stable (OR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.90-3.55) and high-increasing (OR = 6.03, 95% CI: 3.86-9.43) BCAA trajectory groups in adjusted models. A separate trajectory group analysis from years 2-20 for incident DM after year 20 showed that moderate-stable and high-increasing trajectory groups were also significantly associated with higher risk of incident DM, after adjustment for clinical variables and glucose levels.CONCLUSIONBCAA levels track over a 28-year span in most young adults, but serial clinical metabolomic measurements identify subpopulations with rising levels associated with high risk of DM in later life.FUNDINGThis research was supported by the NIH, under grants R01 HL146844 (JTW) and T32 HL069771 (MRC). The CARDIA study is conducted and supported by the NIH National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute in collaboration with the University of Alabama at Birmingham (HHSN268201800005I and HHSN268201800007I), Northwestern University (HHSN268201800003I), the University of Minnesota (HHSN268201800006I), and Kaiser Foundation Research Institute (HHSN268201800004I).

Using electronic health record data to link families: an illustrative example using intergenerational patterns of obesity

OBJECTIVE

Electronic health record (EHR) data are a valuable resource for population health research but lack critical information such as relationships between individuals. Emergency contacts in EHRs can be used to link family members, creating a population that is more representative of a community than traditional family cohorts.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We revised a published algorithm: relationship inference from the electronic health record (RIFTEHR). Our version, Pythonic RIFTEHR (P-RIFTEHR), identifies a patient's emergency contacts, matches them to existing patients (when available) using network graphs, checks for conflicts, and infers new relationships. P-RIFTEHR was run on December 15, 2021 in the Northwestern Medicine Electronic Data Warehouse (NMEDW) on approximately 2.95 million individuals and was validated using the existing link between children born at NM hospitals and their mothers. As proof-of-concept, we modeled the association between parent and child obesity using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The P-RIFTEHR algorithm matched 1 157 454 individuals in 448 278 families. The median family size was 2, the largest was 32 persons, and 247 families spanned 4 generations or more. Validation of the mother-child pairs resulted in 95.1% sensitivity. Children were 2 times more likely to be obese if a parent is obese (OR: 2.30; 95% CI, 2.23-2.37).

CONCLUSION

P-RIFTEHR can identify familiar relationships in a large, diverse population in an integrated health system. Estimates of parent-child inheritability of obesity using family structures identified by the algorithm were consistent with previously published estimates from traditional cohort studies.

Premature Cardiovascular Disease and Brain Health in Midlife: The CARDIA Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

To understand the role of premature (defined as ≤ 60 years) cardiovascular disease (CVD) in brain health earlier in life, we examined the associations of premature CVD with midlife cognition and white matter health.

METHODS

We studied a prospective cohort in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, who were 18-30 years at baseline (1985-1986) and followed up to 30 years when 5 cognitive tests measuring different domains were administered. A subset (656 participants) had brain MRI measures of white matter hyperintensity (WMH) and white matter integrity. A premature CVD event was adjudicated based on medical records of coronary heart disease, stroke/TIA, congestive heart failure, carotid artery disease, and peripheral artery disease. We conducted linear regression to determine the associations of nonfatal premature CVD with cognitive performance (z-standardized), cognitive decline, and MRI measures.

RESULTS

Among 3,146 participants, the mean age (57% women and 48% Black) was 55.1 ± 3.6 years, with 5% (n = 147) having premature CVD. Adjusting for demographics, education, literacy, income, depressive symptoms, physical activity, diet, and APOE, premature CVD was associated with lower cognition in 4 of 5 domains: global cognition (-0.22, 95% CI -0.37 to -0.08), verbal memory (-0.28, 95% CI -0.44 to -0.12), processing speed (-0.46, 95% CI -0.62 to -0.31), and executive function (-0.38, 95% CI -0.55 to -0.22). Premature CVD was associated with greater WMH (total, temporal, and parietal lobes) and higher white matter mean diffusivity (total and temporal lobes) after adjustment for covariates. These associations remained significant after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and excluding those with stroke/TIA. Premature CVD was also associated with accelerated cognitive decline over 5 years (adjusted OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.65-5.71).

DISCUSSION

Premature CVD is associated with worse midlife cognition and white matter health, which is not entirely driven by stroke/TIA and even independent of CVRFs. Preventing CVD in early adulthood may delay the onset of cognitive decline and promote brain health over the life course.

Association of Incident Cardiovascular Disease With Time Course and Cumulative Exposure to Multiple Risk Factors

BACKGROUND

The quantitative relationship of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) to lifetime cumulative risk factor exposure is not well understood.

OBJECTIVES

Using CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study data, we examined the quantitative associations of cumulative exposure over time to multiple, simultaneously operating risk factors with CVD incidence and the incidence of its components.

METHODS

Regression models were developed quantifying the influence of the time course and severity of multiple CVD risk factors, operating simultaneously, on risk of incident CVD. The outcomes were incident CVD and the incidence of its components: coronary heart disease, stroke, and congestive heart failure.

RESULTS

Our study included 4,958 asymptomatic adults enrolled in CARDIA from 1985 to 1986 (ages 18 to 30 years) who were followed for 30 years. Risk of incident CVD depends on the time course and severity of a series of independent risk factors, the impact of which is mediated by their effects on individual CVD components after age 40 years. Cumulative exposure (AUC vs time) to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides was independently associated with risk of incident CVD. Of the blood pressure variables, areas under the mean arterial pressure vs time curve and the pulse pressure vs time curve were strongly and independently associated with incident CVD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The quantitative description of the link between risk factors and CVD informs the construction of individualized CVD mitigation strategies, design of primary prevention trials, and assessment of public health impact of risk factor-based interventions.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease or Heart Failure: First Cardiovascular Event in Adults With Prediabetes and Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Individuals with prediabetes and diabetes are at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and heart failure (HF). Whether ASCVD or HF is more likely to occur first in these populations within different race-sex groups is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the competing risk for the first cardiovascular event by subtype in Black and white men and women with prediabetes and diabetes.

METHODS

Individual-level data from adults without ASCVD or HF were pooled from 6 population-based cohorts. We estimated the competing cumulative incidences of ASCVD, HF and noncardiovascular death as the first event in middle-aged (40-59 years) and older (60-79 years) adults, stratified by race and sex, with normal fasting plasma glucose (FPG < 100 mg/dL), prediabetes (FPG 100-125 mg/dL) and diabetes (FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL or on antihyperglycemic agents) at baseline. Within each race-sex group, we estimated risk the adjusted hazard ratio of ASCVD, HF and noncardiovascular death in adults with prediabetes and diabetes relative to adults with normoglycemia after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

In 40,117 participants with 638,910 person-years of follow-up, 5781 cases of incident ASCVD and 3179 cases of incident HF occurred. In middle-aged adults with diabetes, competing cumulative incidence of ASCVD as a first event was higher than HF in white men (35.4% vs 11.6%), Black men (31.6% vs 15.1%) and white women (24.3% vs 17.2%) but not in Black women (26.4% vs 28.4%). Within each group, the adjusted hazard ratio of ASCVD and HF was significantly higher in adults with diabetes than in adults with normal FPG levels. Findings were largely similar in middle-aged adults with prediabetes and older adults with prediabetes or diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Black women with diabetes are more likely to develop HF as their first CVD event, whereas individuals with diabetes from other race-sex groups are more likely to present first with ASCVD. These results can inform the tailoring of primary prevention therapies for either HF- or ASCVD-specific pathways based on individual-level risk.

Abstract P594: High-Density Lipoprotein Particle Concentrations and Long-Term Atherosclerotic Disease Risk in Young Adults

Introduction: HDL particles vary in size and concentration. Indices of overall HDL particle concentration (HDL-P) and the concentrations of different HDL size subspecies (small: H1-H3, medium: H4, H5, and large: H6, H7) have differential associations with near-term CVD events in middle-aged adults. It is unclear if measures of HDL particle concentration predict long-term ASCVD risk in young adults.

Methods: Among CARDIA participants (ppts), NMR was used to measure HDL-P and HDL particle size subgroup H1-H7 concentrations. HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) was measured using standard assays. We stratified the ppts into 2 age windows: 20-30y (n= 1645) and 30-40y (n=2922). We used adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to assess the associations between a 1SD higher HDL-C, HDL-P, and HDL1-7 subgroups with incident ASCVD events. We added HDL-P, HDL H1-H7, and HDL-C separately to a modified Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) model; model performance (discrimination and reclassification) was evaluated.

Results: 81 and 163 ASCVD events occurred over (median (IQR)) 31.8y (31.1-32.0y) for the 20-30y age window and over 26.8y (19.1-27.1y) for the 30-40y age window, respectively. In ppts age 20-30y, a higher HDL-P and HDL-C were not associated with ASCVD events, however a higher HDL H6 subgroup level was associated with lower risk for ASCVD in demographic adjusted models. In the age 30-40y group, higher HDL-P, HDL-C, and H6 subgroup were significantly associated with lower ASCVD risks in all models. There were no significant differences in c-statistics across PCE models. However, there were improvements in reclassification for all HDL measures when added to the PCE model in the 20-30y age window, and significant improvements in reclassification when HDL H1-7 were added to the PCE for the 30-40y age window.

Conclusion: At younger ages (<40y) differences in HDL particle abundance, in particular large particles, may help reclassify long-term risk for ASCVD in some.

Abstract P453: Apolipoprotein B, Low-Density Lipoprotein Particle Number, Non-High-Denisity Lipoprotein Cholesterol, Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, and Total Cholesterol for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction in Young Adults

Introduction: Measures of atherogenic particle number (apoB and LDL particle number [LDL-P]) are stronger predictors of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk than measures of cholesterol concentration (LDL-C, non-HDL-C, total cholesterol [TC]) in middle-aged adults. It is unclear if this is true for younger adults.

Methods: Among CARDIA participants (ppts), NMR was used to measure apoB and LDL-P. Non-HDL-C and TC were measured using standard assays; LDL-C was calculated using the Friedewald equation. We stratified the ppts into two age windows: age 20-30y (n=1645) and age 30-40y (n=2922). We used adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to assess the associations of 1SD higher apoB, LDL-P, non-HDL-C, LDL-C, or TC with incident ASCVD events. We substituted each measure of atherogenic lipid burden for TC in a modified Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) model (with and without HDL-C); and model performance (discrimination and reclassification) was evaluated.

Results: There were 81 and 163 ASCVD events over (median [IQR]) 31.8y (31.1-32.0y) for the age 20-30 age window and over 26.8y (19.1-27.1y) for the 30-40y age window, respectively. In ppts age 20-30y, a 1SD higher apoB, LDL-P, non-HDL-C, and LDL-C were significantly associated with incident ASCVD in demographic adjusted models. The strengths of associations with ASCVD were not significantly different across these measures. For the 30-40y age window, all measures of atherogenic lipoproteins were significantly associated with ASCVD; the strengths of association were not significantly different across atherogenic lipid measures in all models. There were no significant differences in the C-statistic and no improvement in reclassification when each measure was used to replace TC in the PCE model.

Conclusions: ApoB, LDL-P, LDL-C or non-HDL-C may be slightly better markers of long-term ASCVD risk than TC in adults < 30y. However, in adults between 30-40y all measures of atherogenic lipid burden appeared to be equivalent predictors of long-term risk.

Abstract MP32: Body Weight Variability in Young Adulthood and Echocardiographic Precursors of Heart Failure in Later Life: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study

Background: The association between variability in body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood and cardiac structure and function in midlife has not been previously examined.

Methods: We examined 2371 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) participants who had BMI assessments across 25-years (CARDIA exam year 0 [1985-1986], 2 [1987-1989], 5 [1990-1991], 7 [1992-1993], 10 [1995-1996], 15 [2000-2001], 20 [2005-2006], and 25 [2010-2011]) as well as echocardiography data at the year-25 exam (2010-2011). BMI variability was assessed by standard deviation (SD) across 25 years. Adjusted multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the association between echocardiography variables (dependent variable) and SD of BMI (independent variable). Model 1 was adjusted for standard cardiac risk factors (age, sex, race, education, blood pressure, anti-hypertension medication use, smoking, fasting plasma glucose, alcohol consumption, physical activity, HDL and total cholesterol. Model 2 was additionally adjusted for mean BMI.

Results: Among participants included in the analysis, mean [SD] age at the year 25 exam [2010-2011] was 50.4 [3.6] years; 44.5% were men; and 41.3% were black). In model 1, greater SD of BMI was associated with greater left ventricular mass (β 5.18g, p<0.001), left ventricular global longitudinal strain 0.08, p=0.01, and left atrial volume (β 1.60ml, p<0.001). Additional adjustment for mean BMI, attenuated associations (p>.05 for all). Greater SD of BMI was associated with worse diastolic function (E/é) (β 0.11, p<0.001). Observed association between BMI variability and E/é persisted even after accounting for mean BMI (β 0.08, p=0.01).

Conclusions: Greater body weight variability in young adulthood was associated with modest unfavorable midlife alterations in diastolic function.

Abstract P360: Social and Psychosocial Determinants of Racial and Ethnic Differences in Cardiovascular Health: The MESA and MASALA Studies

Background: Social and psychosocial factors are associated with cardiovascular health (CVH) and may underlie race/ethnic differences in CVH. Quantifying the contribution of individual-level social and psychosocial factors to racial and ethnic differences in CVH may guide strategies to reduce disparities.

Methods: In the MESA and MASALA cohorts, Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition quantified the contributions of social and psychosocial factors to differences in mean CVH score (range 0-14, with 14 indicating optimal CVH) in Black, Chinese, Hispanic, or South Asian compared with White participants.

Results: Among 7,978 adults (mean age 61 [SE 10] years, 52% female), there were 1,892 Black (mean CVH score 7.96), 804 Chinese (CVH 9.69), 1,496 Hispanic (CVH 8.00), 1,164 South Asian (CVH 9.16), and 2,622 White (CVH 8.91) participants. The factors that statistically contributed the most to explained differences in mean CVH score were income for Black participants (if mean income in Black participants were equivalent to White participants, Black participants’ mean CVH score would be 0.14 points higher, p<0.05); place of birth for Chinese participants (if proportion of US-born and foreign-born individuals among Chinese adults were equivalent to White participants, Chinese participants’ mean CVH score would be 0.22 points lower, p<0.05); and education for Hispanic and South Asian participants (if educational attainment were equivalent to White participants, Hispanic and South Asian participants’ mean CVH score would be 0.55 points higher and 0.37 points lower, respectively, p<0.05 for both).

Conclusions: In this multiethnic US cohort, social and psychosocial factors statistically explained racial and ethnic differences in CVH. Socioeconomic and immigration-related factors contributed the largest magnitude to CVH differences between race and ethnic groups.

Abstract P634: Life’s Essential 8 and the Role of Sleep in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Introduction: Sleep affects other cardiovascular health (CVH) behaviors and factors, and it is associated with cardiovascular disease. The AHA recently updated the definition of CVH to include sleep (“Life’s Essential 8”; LE8). Associations of the LE8 CVH score (with or without sleep) with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk have not been described.

Methods: We included CARDIA and MESA participants (ppts), stratified into younger (ages 30-45, n=4332), middle-aged (ages 45-60, n=4793), and older groups (ages 60-75, n=3168). CVH score (range: 0-100) with sleep (8 metrics) and without sleep (7 metrics) was scored separately and categorized by age-specific quartiles. Reclassification of CVH score with the addition of sleep and associations with ASCVD events were assessed at each age.

Results: Mean (SD) CVH scores with and without sleep were 72.8 (13.2) and 73.0 (14.2) for younger, 67.1 (14.6) and 65.6 (15.8) for middle-aged, 64.6 (13.6) and 63.0 (14.9) for older ppts. Self-reported Black race and less favorable socioeconomic and psychosocial status were associated with shorter sleep duration, as were lower CVH scores. When sleep was included in the CVH score, 81.9%-83.0% (by age group) of ppts had consistent CVH score quartiles, 7.7%-8.9% were reclassified into a higher CVH score quartile, and 7.8%-9.3% were reclassified into a lower CVH score quartile. Including sleep tended to result in worse CVH scores for men and Black ppts. Higher CVH scores were associated with significantly greater probability of ASCVD-free survival (Figure 1A). Each 10-point higher CVH score was associated with 21%-39% lower hazards for ASCVD across age groups, and the CVH score including sleep had somewhat stronger associations with ASCVD than the CVH score without sleep (Figure 1B).

Conclusion: Higher CVH using the LE8 score is associated with lower ASCVD risk. The inclusion of sleep in the CVH score reclassified almost 20% of participants and resulted in somewhat stronger associations between CVH score and ASCVD.

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Figure 1: Age, sex, race, and education adjusted association of LE8 and ASCVD(A-adjusted ASCVD-free Survival Curves by quartile of CVH score; B-adjusted hazard ratio and 95%CI)

Abstract 31: Associations Between Cardiorespiratory Fitness (CRF) in Early Adulthood, Retention Through Midlife, and Heart Failure (HF) Stages: Findings From Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study

Introduction: Prior studies demonstrate that poor CRF in early adulthood is associated with adverse cardiac structure and function in midlife. The purpose of this study is to examine if higher early adulthood CRF and retention of CRF through midlife are associated with lower subsequent risk of subclinical or clinical HF.

Methods: CARDIA participants with available data on CRF at baseline (Year [Y] 0: 1985-86), follow-up (Y7 or Y20), and HF staging data by Y30 were included. CRF was estimated using treadmill duration from a maximal, symptom-limited graded exercise test via modified Balke protocol. An adjusted linear mixed model was used to estimate treadmill duration when CRF assessment was missing at Y7 or 20. HF stages were defined using AHA HF staging criteria, including Stage 0 (no HF risk factors). Clinical HF was adjudicated by committee. Adjusted multinomial models tested associations between Y0 CRF and percent CRF retained through Y20 with HF stages at Y30, with Stage 0 as the reference. Interactions by the four race-sex groups were examined.

Results: Of 2,565 individuals (25.1±3.5 y, 43% Black, 55% female), 30% (n=778), 37% (n=952), 32% (n=813), and 1% (n=32) were classified as Stages 0, A, B, or C/D by Y30 exam, respectively. Compared with Stage 0, every 1-minute increment higher CRF in early-adulthood was associated with a lower adjusted odds ratio of HF [Stage A: 0.72 (95% CI 0.68, 0.76), Stage B: 0.80 (95% CI 0.75, 0.84), Stage C/D 0.86 (95% CI 0.71, 1.04)]. Compared with Stage 0, every 1-standard deviation of % CRF retained at Y20 (midlife) was also associated with a lower odds of Stage A, B, and C/D HF at Y30 (Figure). A race-sex interaction was not observed (p-interaction 0.42).

Conclusion: Higher early adulthood CRF, and greater retention of CRF through midlife, were associated with lower risk of developing subclinical or clinical HF. Strategies to maintain optimal CRF across the young adulthood to midlife transition may be important in prevention of HF.

Abstract P540: Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Antibody Response to COVID-19 Vaccination: The C4R Study

Background: Adults with cardiovascular co-morbidities and risk factors are at greater risk of severe COVID-19. These same risk factors may also be associated with an attenuated antibody response to COVID-19 vaccines, although studies in diverse, U.S. population-based cohorts have been limited.

Methods: The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) conducted a serosurvey for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies via dried blood spot (DBS) in 14 U.S. cohorts. IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike subunit 1 (S1) and nucleocapsid (N) were measured from DBS using a semi-quantitative microsphere immunoassay and reported as median fluorescence intensity (MFI). Multivariable adjusted linear models regressed log-transformed anti-S1 MFI on age, sex, race/ethnicity, education attainment, self-reported diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease, smoking history, body mass index (BMI), asthma, obstructive lung diseases, DBS batch, anti-N MFI, vaccine type, time between vaccine and DBS, and vaccine dose at time of DBS collection. Results are presented as the percent difference in anti-S1 MFI compared with a reference group.

Results: There were 6614 vaccinated participants prior to booster regimens and DBS collection (April 2021-July 2022) with 50%, 48%, and 2% of the cohort who received BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or other vaccines, respectively. The mean (SD) time between vaccination and DBS was 3.8 (1.8) months. Over 10% of the cohort had self-reported a history of diabetes, 55% had hypertension, and 74% had a BMI>25 kg/m 2 . Anti-S1 MFI decreased as the time between vaccine dose and DBS collection increased. Diabetes was associated with a 16.1% lower anti-S1 MFI (95%CI:-22.4,-9.5) whereas neither hypertension (-3.8%;95%CI:-9.3,2.1), nor cardiovascular disease history (-5.3%;95%CI:-16.3,7.4) were associated with anti-S1 MFI. Former and current smoking history were each associated with a lower anti-S1 MFI: (-6.6%;95%CI:-12.1,-0.8) and (-16.1%;95%CI:-24.7,-6.6), respectively. Participants with a BMI 25-29.9 kg/m 2 had a 7.6% higher anti-S1 MFI (95%CI:0.3,15.4) whereas those with a BMI of 30-35 kg/m 2 and >35 kg/m 2 had 6.2% (95%CI:-2.4,15.5) higher and 8.9% lower (95%CI:-17.6,0.7) MFI levels, respectively. Older age and male sex were each associated with a lower anti-S1 MFI and mRNA-1273 vaccine, Asian subgroup, higher anti-N titer, and prior COVID-19 infection were each associated with higher anti-S1 MFI. Chronic kidney disease, education attainment, and lung disease were not associated with anti-S1 MFI.

Conclusions: Several traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were associated with diminished humoral responses to the initial COVID-19 vaccine regimens in a diverse U.S. population-based cohort and may have implications on strategies to improve vaccine responses.

Abstract 39: Association of Cardiovascular Health With Time Lived Free of Coronary Artery Calcium

Introduction: Zero coronary artery calcium (CAC) is associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease. More time lived without CAC may delay coronary artery disease morbidity, but prediction of when CAC will first develop is not well understood. To inform cardiovascular prevention, we evaluated how cardiovascular health (CVH) relates to time lived without CAC.

Methods: In Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants with zero CAC at baseline followed up to 10 years, we used Kaplan-Meier curves to estimate restricted mean survival time since study entry lived with zero CAC, by baseline CVH per Life’s Simple 7 metrics categorized as high (score 12-14), moderate (8-11), and low (0-7), and stratified by sex and age (45-64, 65-84 years).

Results: Among 3416 participants without CAC at baseline (63% female, mean age 58 [SD 9] years, mean CVH score 8.8 [2.1]), mean years lived with zero CAC was 4.9 (SD 3.5) years. Women with high CVH lived on average 6.6 (95% CI 6.4-6.8) years with zero CAC, with moderate CVH 6.2 (6.1-6.3) years with zero CAC, and with low CVH 5.6 (5.3-5.8) years with zero CAC. Men with high CVH lived on average 6.4 (5.9-6.9) years with zero CAC, with moderate CVH 6.1 (5.9-6.3) years with zero CAC, and with low CVH 5.5 (5.1-5.9) years with zero CAC (Figure A). Among participants aged 45-64 years, those with high CVH lived on average 7.4 (7.1-7.6) years with zero CAC, with moderate CVH 6.8 (6.6-6.9) years with zero CAC, and with low CVH 5.9 (5.7-6.2) years with zero CAC. Among participants aged 65-84 years, those with high CVH lived on average 5.1 (4.5-5.7) years with zero CAC, with moderate CVH 5.2 (5.0-5.4) years with zero CAC, and with low CVH 4.9 (4.6-5.2) years with zero CAC (Figure B).

Conclusions: High CVH was associated with longer time lived with zero CAC in women and men. Adults aged 45-64 years with high or intermediate CVH at baseline had longer time lived with zero CAC compared with those with low CVH. Older adults had no difference in time lived with zero CAC based on CVH. Maintaining CVH in midlife may delay onset of CAC.