Longitudinal Growth in Single-Word Intelligibility Among Children With Cerebral Palsy From 24 to 96 Months of Age: Effects of Speech-Language Profile Group Membership on Outcomes

Purpose We examined whether there were differences among speech-language profile groups of children with cerebral palsy (CP) in age of crossing 25%, 50%, and 75% intelligibility thresholds; age of greatest intelligibility growth; rate of intelligibility growth; maximum attained intelligibility at 8 years; and how well intelligibility at 36 months predicts intelligibility at 96 months when group membership is accounted for. Profile groups were children with no speech motor impairment (NSMI), those with speech motor impairment and language comprehension that is typically developing (SMI-LCT), and those with speech motor impairment and language comprehension impairment (SMI-LCI). Method Sixty-eight children with CP were followed longitudinally between 24 and 96 months of age. A total of 564 time points were examined across children (M = 8.3 time points per child, SD = 2.6). We fitted a nonlinear random effects model for longitudinal observations, allowing for differences between profile groups. We used the fitted model trajectories to generate descriptive analyses of intelligibility growth by group and to generate simulations to analyze how well 36-month intelligibility data predicted 96-month data accounting for profile groups. Results Children with CP who have NSMI have different growth and better intelligibility outcomes than those with speech motor impairment. Children with SMI-LCT tend to have better outcomes but similar intelligibility growth as children with SMI-LCI. There may be a subset of children that cut across SMI-LCI and SMI-LCT groups who have severe speech motor involvement and show limited growth in intelligibility. Conclusions Intelligibility outcomes for children with CP are affected by profile group membership. Intelligibility growth tends to be delayed in children with speech motor impairment. Intelligibility at 3 years is highly predictive of later outcomes regardless of profile group. Intervention decision making should include consideration of early intelligibility, and treatment directions should include consideration of augmentative and alternative communication.

FMR1 Low Zone CGG Repeats: Phenotypic Associations in the Context of Parenting Stress

The FMR1 gene on the X chromosome has varying numbers of CGG repeats. The modal number is 30, and expansion to >200 results in fragile X syndrome, but the copy number extends down to 6. Past research suggests that individuals whose CGGs are in the "low zone" (LZ; defined here as ≤ 25 CGGs) may be more environmentally-reactive than those with normal range repeats (26-40 CGGs)-a gene x environment interaction. Using a population-based DNA biobank, in our primary analysis we compared 96 mothers with LZ CGG repeats on both alleles to 280 mothers who had CGG repeats in the normal range. Secondarily, we conducted parallel analyses on fathers. We investigated how parents in these two CGG repeat categories differentially responded to stress, defined as parenting a child with disabilities. Significant gene x environment interactions indicated that LZ mothers who had children with disabilities had greater limitations (in executive functioning, depression, anxiety, daily health symptoms, and balance) than LZ mothers whose children did not have disabilities. In contrast, mothers with normal-range CGG repeats did not differ based on stress exposure. For fathers, a similar pattern was evident for one phenotype only (hand tremors). Although on average LZ CGGs are not associated with compromised functioning, the average masks differential response to the environment.

A latent variable approach to potential outcomes for emergency department admission decisions

In emergency departments (EDs), care providers continuously weigh admissions against continued monitoring and treatment often without knowing their condition and health needs. To understand the decision process and its causal effect on outcomes, an observational study must contend with unobserved/missing information and a lack of exchangeability between admitted and discharged patients. Our goal was to provide a general framework to evaluate admission decisions from electronic healthcare records (EHRs). We describe admission decisions as a decision-making process in which the patient's health needs is a binary latent variable. We estimate latent health needs from EHR with only partial knowledge of the decision process (ie, initial evaluation, admission decision, length of stay). Estimated latent health needs are then used to understand the admission decision and the decision's causal impact on outcomes. For the latter, we assume potential outcomes are stochastically independent from the admission decision conditional on latent health needs. As a case study, we apply our approach to over 150 000 patient encounters with the ED from the University of Michigan Health System collected from August 2012 through July 2015. We estimate that while admitting a patient with higher latent needs reduces the 30-day risk of revisiting the ED or later being admitted through the ED by over 79%, admitting a patient with lower latent needs actually increases these 30-day risks by 3.0% and 7.6%, respectively.

Differentiating Typical From Atypical Speech Production in 5-Year-Old Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Comparative Analysis

Objective Early diagnosis of speech disorders in children with cerebral palsy (CP) is of critical importance. A key problem is differentiating those with borderline or mild speech motor deficits from those who are within an age-appropriate range of variability. We sought to quantify how well functional speech measures differentiated typically developing (TD) children from children with CP. Method We studied speech production in 45 children with CP (26 with clinical speech motor impairment [SMI] and 19 with no evidence of speech motor impairment [NSMI]) and in 29 TD children of the same age. Speech elicitation tasks were used. Intelligibility, speech rate, and intelligible words per minute were examined. Results All measures differentiated between all 3 groups of children with considerable precision based on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) data. AUC was highest for overall intelligibility, which ranged from .88 to .99. Intelligible words per minute also yielded very strong AUCs, ranging from .81 to .99. In each of the receiver operating characteristic models, discrimination between groups was highest for children with speech motor impairment versus TD children. Data indicated that 90% of TD children had overall intelligibility above 87% at 5 years of age, but that no child was 100% intelligible. Furthermore, 90% children with SMI had intelligibility below 72%. Conclusion Findings suggest that functional speech measures differentiate very clearly between children with and without CP and that even children who do not show evidence of speech motor impairment have functional differences in their speech production ability relative to TD peers.

Socioemotional dispositions of children and adolescents predict general and specific second-order factors of psychopathology in early adulthood: A 12-year prospective study

We previously hypothesized that the ubiquitous, but patterned correlations among all dimensions of psychopathology reflect a hierarchy of progressively more nonspecific causal influences, with a general factor of psychopathology-also dubbed the p factor-reflecting the most transdiagnostic causal influences. We further hypothesized that the general factor is a manifestation of individual differences in 1 or more trait-like dispositions, particularly negative emotionality, that are nonspecifically associated with risk for essentially every dimension of psychopathology. We tested the hypothesis that this and other dispositions measured in childhood/adolescence significantly predict general and specific second-order dimensions of psychopathology in early adulthood. The latent general factor of psychopathology itself was correlated over time from 10-17 to 23-31 years of age even though it was defined by different informants and different dimensions of symptoms. Using a measure of dispositions that minimizes item contamination with psychopathology symptoms, parent-rated negative emotionality in childhood and adolescence predicted the general factor of psychopathology based on self-reported symptoms in early adulthood, whereas parent-rated daring predicted the specific adult externalizing psychopathology factor after correction for multiple tests. In addition, youth-rated negative emotionality and daring predicted specific adult externalizing psychopathology. These results over a span of 12 years suggests that the general factor is relatively stable over time and that associations of dispositional traits with second-order dimensions of psychopathology are enduring, sometimes across informants. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Longitudinal Growth in Single Word Intelligibility Among Children With Cerebral Palsy From 24 to 96 Months of Age: Predicting Later Outcomes From Early Speech Production

Purpose Children with cerebral palsy (CP) are at risk for significant communication problems. Reduced speech intelligibility is common, even for those who do not have speech motor deficits. Development of intelligibility has not been comprehensively quantified in children with CP; as a result, we are currently unable to predict later speech outcomes. Such information would advance treatment decision making. We sought to examine growth in speech intelligibility among children with CP using a prospective longitudinal design, with a focus on age of crossing target intelligibility thresholds, age of greatest intelligibility growth, and how well intelligibility at 36 months predicted intelligibility at 96 months. Method Sixty-nine children with CP were followed longitudinally between 24 and 96 months of age. A total of 566 time points were examined across children ( M = 8.2 time points per child, SD = 2.6). We fitted a nonlinear random effects model for longitudinal observations and then used the fitted model trajectories to generate descriptive analyses of growth. We used results of the model to generate a set of simulations, which we analyzed to determine how well 36-month intelligibility data predicted 96-month data. Results Half of children crossed 25% and 50% intelligibility thresholds at 36 and 49 months of age, respectively. Slightly more than half of children did not reach 75% intelligibility by 96 months of age. Age of crossing 25%, 50%, and 75% intelligibility thresholds was highly negatively correlated with intelligibly at 96 months. Children had the steepest intelligibility growth at 36 months, followed by 48 and 60 months. Intelligibility at 36 months was highly predictive of intelligibility at 96 months. Conclusions The developmental window from 3 to 5 years constitutes a time of rapid growth in speech intelligibility in children with CP. Children who cross intelligibility thresholds of 25%, 50%, and 75% at earlier ages have better outcomes when they are older; early performance is highly predictive of later speech intelligibility outcomes. Children with CP as a group have delayed speech intelligibility development but are still growing through 96 months of age.

Multivariate semi-continuous proportionally constrained two-part fixed effects models and applications

Semi-continuous data, also known as zero-inflated continuous data, have a substantial portion of responses equal to a single value (typically 0) and a continuous, right-skewed distribution among the remaining positive values. For jointly modeling multivariate clustered semi-continuous responses, the covariate effects in the positive parts can be proportionally constrained to the covariate effects in the logistic part, yielding a multivariate two-part fixed effects model. It is shown that, both theoretically and experimentally, the proportionally constrained model is more efficient than the unconstrained model in terms of parameter estimation, and thus provides a deeper understanding of the data structure when the proportionality structure holds. A robust variance estimation method is also introduced and tested under various model mis-specified cases. The proposed model is applied to data from a randomized controlled trial evaluating potential preventive effects of meditation or exercise on duration and severity of acute respiratory infection illness. The new analysis infers that meditation not only has highly significant effects on reduction of acute respiratory infection severity and duration, but also has significant effects on preventing acute respiratory infection, which was not previously reported in the literature.

AR(1) latent class models for longitudinal count data

In a variety of applications involving longitudinal or repeated-measurements data, it is desired to uncover natural groupings or clusters that exist among study subjects. Motivated by the need to recover clusters of longitudinal trajectories of conduct problems in the field of developmental psychopathology, we propose a method to address this goal when the response data in question are counts. We assume the subject-specific observations are generated from a first-order autoregressive process that is appropriate for count data. A key advantage of our approach is that the class-specific likelihood function arising from each subject's data can be expressed in closed form, circumventing common computational issues associated with random effects models. To further improve computational efficiency, we propose an approximate EM procedure for estimating the model parameters where, within each EM iteration, the maximization step is approximated by solving an appropriately chosen set of estimating equations. We explore the effectiveness of our procedures through simulations based on a four-class model, placing a special emphasis on recovery of the latent trajectories. Finally, we analyze data and recover trajectories of conduct problems in an important nationally representative sample. The methods discussed here are implemented in the R package inarmix, which is available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (http://cran.r-project.org).

Contribution of Family Relatedness to Neurobehavioral Comorbidities in Idiopathic Childhood Epilepsies

OBJECTIVES

Rates of cognitive, academic and behavioral comorbidities are elevated in children with epilepsy. The contribution of environmental and genetic influences to comorbidity risk is not fully understood. This study investigated children with epilepsy, their unaffected siblings, and controls to determine the presence and extent of risk associated with family relatedness across a range of epilepsy comorbidities.

METHODS

Participants were 346 children (8-18 years), n=180 with recent-onset epilepsy, their unaffected siblings (n=67), and healthy first-degree cousin controls (n=99). Assessments included: (1) Child Behavior Checklist/6-18 (CBCL), (2) Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF), (3) history of education and academic services, and (4) lifetime attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnosis. Analyses consisted of linear mixed effect models for continuous variables, and logistic mixed models for binary variables.

RESULTS

Differences were detected between the three groups of children across all measures (p<.001). For ADHD, academic problems, and executive dysfunction, children with epilepsy exhibited significantly more problems than unaffected siblings and controls; siblings and controls did not differ statistically significantly from each other. For social competence, children with epilepsy and their unaffected siblings displayed more abnormality compared with controls, with no statistically significant difference between children with epilepsy and unaffected siblings. For behavioral problems, children with epilepsy had more abnormality than siblings and controls, but unaffected siblings also exhibited more abnormalities than controls.

CONCLUSIONS

The contribution of epilepsy and family relatedness varies across specific neurobehavioral comorbidities. Family relatedness was not significantly associated with rates of ADHD, academic problems and executive dysfunction, but was associated with competence and behavioral problems. (JINS, 2018, 24, 653-661).

Executive function in school-aged children with cerebral palsy: Relationship with speech and language

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although children with cerebral palsy (CP) are at an increased risk for developing speech, language, and executive function (EF) impairments, little is known regarding the relationship among these risk factors. The current study examined how different profiles of speech and language impairment might be associated with impairments in EF skills in school-aged children with CP.

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

Forty-seven school-aged children with CP were included. Each child contributed between one and four data points for a total of 87 data points. Children were classified into speech and language profile groups at each data point. EF skills were examined using the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function questionnaire.

OUTCOMES AND RESULTS

Compared to a mean of 50 from a normative population of children, mean scores on all measures of EF were significantly elevated for all groups (p<.05). The proportion of children with CP with elevated EF scores was significantly higher for all groups compared to the expected proportion in a normal population of children (p<.05).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Children with CP who do not have impairments in speech or language may be at risk for EF difficulties which may negatively affect social communication, academic performance, and functional independence.

Semiparametric Generalized Linear Models with the gldrm Package

This paper introduces a new algorithm to estimate and perform inferences on a recently proposed and developed semiparametric generalized linear model (glm). Rather than selecting a particular parametric exponential family model, such as the Poisson distribution, this semiparametric glm assumes that the response is drawn from the more general exponential tilt family. The regression coefficients and unspecified reference distribution are estimated by maximizing a semiparametric likelihood. The new algorithm incorporates several computational stability and efficiency improvements over the algorithm originally proposed. In particular, the new algorithm performs well for either small or large support for the nonparametric response distribution. The algorithm is implemented in a new R package called gldrm.

Prospective test of the developmental propensity model of antisocial behavior: from childhood and adolescence into early adulthood

BACKGROUND

The developmental propensity model of antisocial behavior posits that several dispositional characteristics of children transact with the environment to influence the likelihood of learning antisocial behavior across development. Specifically, greater dispositional negative emotionality, greater daring, and lower prosociality-operationally, the inverse of callousness- and lower cognitive abilities are each predicted to increase risk for developing antisocial behavior.

METHODS

Prospective tests of key predictions derived from the model were conducted in a high-risk sample of 499 twins who were assessed on dispositions at 10-17 years of age and assessed for antisocial personality disorder (APD) symptoms at 22-31 years of age. Predictions were tested separately for parent and youth informants on the dispositions using multiple regressions that adjusted for oversampling, nonresponse, and clustering within twin pairs, controlling demographic factors and time since the first assessment.

RESULTS

Consistent with predictions, greater numbers of APD symptoms in adulthood were independently predicted over a 10-15 year span by higher youth ratings on negative emotionality and daring and lower youth ratings on prosociality, and by parent ratings of greater negative emotionality and lower prosociality. A measure of working memory did not predict APD symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support future research on the role of these dispositions in the development of antisocial behavior.

Health Profiles of Mosaic Versus Non-mosaic FMR1 Premutation Carrier Mothers of Children With Fragile X Syndrome

The FMR1 premutation is of increasing interest to the FXS community, as questions about a primary premutation phenotype warrant research attention. 100 FMR1 premutation carrier mothers (mean age = 58; 67–138 CGG repeats) of adults with fragile X syndrome were studied with respect to their physical and mental health, motor, and neurocognitive characteristics. We explored the correlates of CGG repeat mosaicism in women with expanded alleles. Mothers provided buccal swabs from which DNA was extracted and the FMR1 CGG genotyping was performed (Amplidex Kit, Asuragen). Mothers were categorized into three groups: Group 1: premutation non-mosaic (n = 45); Group 2: premutation mosaic (n = 41), and Group 3: premutation/full mutation mosaic (n = 14). Group 2 mothers had at least two populations of cells with different allele sizes in the premutation range besides their major expanded allele. Group 3 mothers had a very small population of cells in the full mutation range (>200 CGGs) in addition to one or multiple populations of cells with different allele sizes in the premutation range. Machine learning (random forest) was used to identify symptoms and conditions that correctly classified mothers with respect to mosaicism; follow-up comparisons were made to characterize the three groups. In categorizing mosaicism, the random forest yielded significantly better classification than random classification, with overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.737. Among the most important symptoms and conditions that contributed to the classification were anxiety, menopause symptoms, executive functioning limitations, and difficulty walking several blocks, with the women who had full mutation mosaicism (Group 3) unexpectedly having better health. Although only 14 premutation carrier mothers in the present sample also had a small population of full mutation cells, their profile of comparatively better health, mental health, and executive functioning was unexpected. This preliminary finding should prompt additional research on larger numbers of participants with more extensive phenotyping to confirm the clinical correlates of low-level full mutation mosaicism in premutation carriers and to probe possible mechanisms.

Measuring the hierarchical general factor model of psychopathology in young adults

There is evidence that models of psychopathology specifying a general factor and specific second-order factors fit better than competing structural models. Nonetheless, additional tests are needed to examine the generality and boundaries of the general factor model. In a selected second wave of a cohort study, first-order dimensions of psychopathology symptoms in 499 23- to 31-year-old twins were analyzed. Using confirmatory factor analysis, a bifactor model specifying a general factor and specific internalizing and externalizing factors fit better than competing models. Factor loadings in this model were sex invariant despite greater variances in the specific internalizing factor among females and greater variances in the general and specific externalizing factors among males. The bifactor structure was robust to the exclusion of any single first-order dimension of psychopathology. Furthermore, the results were essentially unchanged when all overlapping symptoms that define multiple disorders were excluded from symptom dimensions. Furthermore, the best-fitting bifactor model also emerged in exploratory structural equation modeling with freely estimated cross-loadings. The general factor of psychopathology was robust across variations in measurement and analysis.

External validity of a hierarchical dimensional model of child and adolescent psychopathology: Tests using confirmatory factor analyses and multivariate behavior genetic analyses

Several recent studies of the hierarchical phenotypic structure of psychopathology have identified a General psychopathology factor in addition to the more expected specific Externalizing and Internalizing dimensions in both youth and adult samples and some have found relevant unique external correlates of this General factor. We used data from 1,568 twin pairs (599 MZ & 969 DZ) age 9 to 17 to test hypotheses for the underlying structure of youth psychopathology and the external validity of the higher-order factors. Psychopathology symptoms were assessed via structured interviews of caretakers and youth. We conducted phenotypic analyses of competing structural models using Confirmatory Factor Analysis and used Structural Equation Modeling and multivariate behavior genetic analyses to understand the etiology of the higher-order factors and their external validity. We found that both a General factor and specific Externalizing and Internalizing dimensions are necessary for characterizing youth psychopathology at both the phenotypic and etiologic levels, and that the 3 higher-order factors differed substantially in the magnitudes of their underlying genetic and environmental influences. Phenotypically, the specific Externalizing and Internalizing dimensions were slightly negatively correlated when a General factor was included, which reflected a significant inverse correlation between the nonshared environmental (but not genetic) influences on Internalizing and Externalizing. We estimated heritability of the general factor of psychopathology for the first time. Its moderate heritability suggests that it is not merely an artifact of measurement error but a valid construct. The General, Externalizing, and Internalizing factors differed in their relations with 3 external validity criteria: mother's smoking during pregnancy, parent's harsh discipline, and the youth's association with delinquent peers. Multivariate behavior genetic analyses supported the external validity of the 3 higher-order factors by suggesting that the General, Externalizing, and Internalizing factors were correlated with peer delinquency and parent's harsh discipline for different etiologic reasons. (PsycINFO Database Record

Are Parents Who Feel the Need to Watch Over Their Children's Care Better Patient Safety Partners?

OBJECTIVES

Many parents report needing to watch over their child's hospital care to prevent mistakes. In this study, we assessed whether needing to watch over care predicts parent performance of recommended safety behaviors to reduce medication errors and health care-associated infections.

METHODS

At admission, we surveyed 170 parents about their need to watch over care, demographics, and hospitalization factors. At discharge, parents were surveyed about medication awareness and hand hygiene behaviors. Logistic regression was used to examine how parents' need to watch over care predicted each behavior, adjusting for demographics and hospitalization factors.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight percent of parents reported needing to watch over care. Most parents (77%) reported frequently or very frequently asking providers for drug names or doses. Fewer parents asked to check drug or infusion accuracy (29%) or to show or read aloud medication labels (21%). Few parents reminded providers to clean hands (4%), but most stated they would be comfortable asking (82%) and likely to speak up if a provider did not (78%). After adjustment, parents needing to watch over care were significantly more likely to ask providers to check drug or infusion accuracy (adjusted odds ratio = 4.59, 95% confidence interval 2.14-9.94) and for drug name or dose (adjusted odds ratio = 3.04, 95% confidence interval 1.25-7.39).

CONCLUSIONS

Parents who report the need to watch over care are more likely to perform behaviors specific to safe medication use (but not hand hygiene) compared with those not reporting this need. Opportunities exist to engage parents as safety partners by leveraging their need to watch over care toward system-level safety initiatives.

Outcome-related, Auxiliary Variable Sampling Designs for Longitudinal Binary Data

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologists have long used case-control and related study designs to enhance variability of response and information available to estimate exposure-disease associations. Less has been done for longitudinal data.

METHODS

We discuss an epidemiological study design and analysis approach for longitudinal binary response data. We seek to gain statistical efficiency by oversampling relatively informative subjects for inclusion into the sample. In this methodological demonstration, we develop this concept by sampling repeatedly from an existing cohort study to estimate the relationship of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to past-year smoking in a panel of baseline smokers. To account for oversampling, we describe a sequential offsetted regressions approach for valid inferences in this setting.

RESULTS

Targeted sampling can lead to increased statistical efficiency when combined with sequential offsetted regressions. Efficiency gains are degraded with increased prevalence of the disease response variable, with decreased association between the sampling variable and the response, and with other design and analysis parameters, providing guidance to those wishing to use these types of designs in the future.

CONCLUSIONS

These designs hold promise for efficient use of resources in longitudinal cohort studies.

Thirty-day readmission and mortality among Medicare beneficiaries discharged to skilled nursing facilities after vascular surgery

BACKGROUND

Readmission within 30 d of an acute hospital stay is frequent, costly, and increasingly subject to penalties. Early readmission is most common after vascular surgery; these patients are often discharged to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), making postacute care an essential partner in reducing readmissions. We characterize 30-day readmissions among vascular surgery patients discharged to SNF to provide evidence for this understudied segment of readmission after specialty surgery.

METHODS

We utilize the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Chronic Conditions Warehouse, a longitudinal 5% national random sample of Medicare beneficiaries to study 30-day readmission or death after discharge to SNF following abdominal aortic aneurysm repair or lower extremity revascularization from 2005-2009. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression with Least Adaptive Shrinkage and Selection Operator were used for analysis.

RESULTS

Two thousand one hundred ninety-seven patients underwent an abdominal aortic aneurysm procedure or lower extremity revascularization at 686 hospitals and discharged to 1714 SNFs. Eight hundred (36%) were readmitted or had died at 30 d. In adjusted analysis, predictors of readmission or death at 30 d included SNF for-profit status (OR [odds ratio] = 1.2; P = 0.032), number of hospitalizations in the previous year (OR = 1.06; P = 0.011), number of comorbidities (OR = 1.06; P = 0.004), emergent procedure (OR = 1.69; P < 0.001), renal complication (OR = 1.38; P = 0.003), respiratory complication (OR = 1.45; P < 0.001), thromboembolic complication (OR = 1.57; P = 0.019), and wound complication (OR = 0.70; P = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients discharged to SNF following vascular surgery have exceptionally high rates of readmission or death at 30 d. Many factors predicting readmission or death potentially modify decision-making around discharge, making early detection, discharge planning, and matching patient needs to SNF capabilities essential to improving outcomes.

A Framework to Improve Surgeon Communication in High-Stakes Surgical Decisions: Best Case/Worst Case

Importance

Although many older adults prefer to avoid burdensome interventions with limited ability to preserve their functional status, aggressive treatments, including surgery, are common near the end of life. Shared decision making is critical to achieve value-concordant treatment decisions and minimize unwanted care. However, communication in the acute inpatient setting is challenging.

Objective

To evaluate the proof of concept of an intervention to teach surgeons to use the Best Case/Worst Case framework as a strategy to change surgeon communication and promote shared decision making during high-stakes surgical decisions.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Our prospective pre-post study was conducted from June 2014 to August 2015, and data were analyzed using a mixed methods approach. The data were drawn from decision-making conversations between 32 older inpatients with an acute nonemergent surgical problem, 30 family members, and 25 surgeons at 1 tertiary care hospital in Madison, Wisconsin.

Interventions

A 2-hour training session to teach each study-enrolled surgeon to use the Best Case/Worst Case communication framework.

Main Outcomes and Measures

We scored conversation transcripts using OPTION 5, an observer measure of shared decision making, and used qualitative content analysis to characterize patterns in conversation structure, description of outcomes, and deliberation over treatment alternatives.

Results

The study participants were patients aged 68 to 95 years (n = 32), 44% of whom had 5 or more comorbid conditions; family members of patients (n = 30); and surgeons (n = 17). The median OPTION 5 score improved from 41 preintervention (interquartile range, 26-66) to 74 after Best Case/Worst Case training (interquartile range, 60-81). Before training, surgeons described the patient's problem in conjunction with an operative solution, directed deliberation over options, listed discrete procedural risks, and did not integrate preferences into a treatment recommendation. After training, surgeons using Best Case/Worst Case clearly presented a choice between treatments, described a range of postoperative trajectories including functional decline, and involved patients and families in deliberation.

Conclusions and Relevance

Using the Best Case/Worst Case framework changed surgeon communication by shifting the focus of decision-making conversations from an isolated surgical problem to a discussion about treatment alternatives and outcomes. This intervention can help surgeons structure challenging conversations to promote shared decision making in the acute setting.

Longitudinal development of communication in children with cerebral palsy between 24 and 53 months: Predicting speech outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether communication at 2 years predicted communication at 4 years in children with cerebral palsy (CP); and whether the age a child first produces words imitatively predicts change in speech production.

METHOD

30 children (15 males) with CP participated and were seen 5 times at 6-month intervals between 24 and 53 months (mean age at time 1 = 26.9 months (SD 1.9)). Variables were communication classification at 24 and 53 months, age that children were first able to produce words imitatively, single-word intelligibility, and longest utterance produced.

RESULTS

Communication at 24 months was highly predictive of abilities at 53 months. Speaking earlier led to faster gains in intelligibility and length of utterance and better outcomes at 53 months than speaking later.

CONCLUSION

Inability to speak at 24 months indicates greater speech and language difficulty at 53 months and a strong need for early communication intervention.

Exact Topological Inference for Paired Brain Networks via Persistent Homology

We present a novel framework for characterizing paired brain networks using techniques in hyper-networks, sparse learning and persistent homology. The framework is general enough for dealing with any type of paired images such as twins, multimodal and longitudinal images. The exact nonparametric statistical inference procedure is derived on testing monotonic graph theory features that do not rely on time consuming permutation tests. The proposed method computes the exact probability in quadratic time while the permutation tests require exponential time. As illustrations, we apply the method to simulated networks and a twin fMRI study. In case of the latter, we determine the statistical significance of the heritability index of the large-scale reward network where every voxel is a network node.

FMR1 genotype interacts with parenting stress to shape health and functional abilities in older age

This study investigated the association of genotype (CGG repeats in FMR1) and the health and well-being of 5,628 aging adults (mean age = 71) in a population-based study. Two groups were contrasted: aging parents who had adult children with developmental or mental health disabilities (n = 785; the high-stress parenting group) and aging parents of healthy children who did not have disabilities (n = 4843; the low-stress parenting group). There were significant curvilinear interaction effects between parenting stress group and CGG repeats for body mass index and indicators of health and functional limitations, and the results were suggestive of interactions for limitations in cognitive functioning. Parents who had adult children with disabilities and whose genotype was two standard deviations above or below the mean numbers of CGGs had poorer health and functional outcomes at age 71 than parents with average numbers of CGGs. In contrast, parents who had healthy adult children and who had similarly high or low numbers of CGG repeats had better health and functional outcomes than parents with average numbers of CGGs. This pattern of gene by environment interactions was consistent with differential susceptibility or the flip-flop phenomenon. This study illustrates how research that begins with a rare genetic condition (such as fragile X syndrome) can lead to insights about the general population and contributes to understanding of how genetic differences shape the way people respond to environments. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Navigating high-risk surgery: protocol for a multisite, stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial of a question prompt list intervention to empower older adults to ask questions that inform treatment decisions

INTRODUCTION

Older patients frequently undergo operations that carry high risk for postoperative complications and death. Poor preoperative communication between patients and surgeons can lead to uninformed decisions and result in unexpected outcomes, conflict between surgeons and patients, and treatment inconsistent with patient preferences. This article describes the protocol for a multisite, cluster-randomised trial that uses a stepped wedge design to test a patient-driven question prompt list (QPL) intervention aimed to improve preoperative decision making and inform postoperative expectations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute-funded trial will be conducted at five academic medical centres in the USA. Study participants include surgeons who routinely perform vascular or oncological surgery, their patients and families. We aim to enrol 40 surgeons and 480 patients over 24 months. Patients age 65 or older who see a study-enrolled surgeon to discuss a vascular or oncological problem that could be treated with high-risk surgery will be enrolled at their clinic visit. Together with stakeholders, we developed a QPL intervention addressing preoperative communication needs of patients considering major surgery. Guided by the theories of self-determination and relational autonomy, this intervention is designed to increase patient activation. Patients will receive the QPL brochure and a letter from their surgeon encouraging its use. Using audio recordings of the outpatient surgical consultation, patient and family member questionnaires administered at three time points and retrospective chart review, we will compare the effectiveness of the QPL intervention to usual care with respect to the following primary outcomes: patient engagement in decision making, psychological well-being and post-treatment regret for patients and families, and interpersonal and intrapersonal conflict relating to treatment decisions and treatments received.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approvals have been granted by the Institutional Review Board at the University of Wisconsin and at each participating site, and a Certificate of Confidentiality has been obtained. Results will be reported in peer-reviewed publications and presented at national meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02623335.

A Family-Centered Rounds Checklist, Family Engagement, and Patient Safety: A Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Family-centered rounds (FCRs) have become standard of care, despite the limited evaluation of FCRs' benefits or interventions to support high-quality FCR delivery. This work examines the impact of the FCR checklist intervention, a checklist and associated provider training, on performance of FCR elements, family engagement, and patient safety.

METHODS

This cluster randomized trial involved 298 families. Two hospital services were randomized to use the checklist; 2 others delivered usual care. We evaluated the performance of 8 FCR checklist elements and family engagement from 673 pre- and postintervention FCR videos and assessed the safety climate with the Children's Hospital Safety Climate Questionnaire. Random effects regression models were used to assess intervention impact.

RESULTS

The intervention significantly increased the number of FCR checklist elements performed (β = 1.2, P < .001). Intervention rounds were significantly more likely to include asking the family (odds ratio [OR] = 2.43, P < .05) or health care team (OR = 4.28, P = .002) for questions and reading back orders (OR = 12.43, P < .001). Intervention families' engagement and reports of safety climate were no different from usual care. However, performance of specific checklist elements was associated with changes in these outcomes. For example, order read-back was associated with significantly more family engagement. Asking families for questions was associated with significantly better ratings of staff's communication openness and safety of handoffs and transitions.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of FCR checklist elements was enhanced by checklist implementation and associated with changes in family engagement and more positive perceptions of safety climate. Implementing the checklist improves delivery of FCRs, impacting quality and safety of care.

Treatment seeking as a mechanism of change in a randomized controlled trial of a mobile health intervention to support recovery from alcohol use disorders

BACKGROUND

We estimated the efficacy of the Addiction-Comprehensive Health Enhancement Support System (A-CHESS) in increasing the use of services for addiction and examined the extent to which this use of services mediated the effects of A-CHESS on risky drinking days and abstinence from drinking.

METHODS

We conducted secondary data analyses of the A-CHESS randomized controlled trial. Recruitment occurred in five residential treatment programs operated by two addiction treatment organizations. Participants were 349 adults with alcohol use disorders recruited two weeks before discharge from residential treatment. We provided intervention arm participants with a smartphone, the A-CHESS application, and an 8-month service plan. Control arm participants received treatment as usual. Telephone interviews at 4, 8, and 12-month follow-ups assessed past-month risky drinking days, past-month abstinence, and post-discharge service utilization (past-month outpatient addiction treatment and past-week mutual help including Alcoholics Anonymous and Narcotics Anonymous). Using mixed effects latent variable models, we estimated the indirect effects of A-CHESS on drinking outcomes, as mediated by post-discharge service utilization.

RESULTS

Approximately 50.5% of participants reported outpatient addiction treatment and 75.5% reported mutual help at any follow-up interview in the year following randomization. Assignment to the A-CHESS intervention was associated with an increased odds of outpatient addiction treatment across follow-ups, but not mutual help. This use of outpatient addiction treatment mediated the effect of A-CHESS on risky drinking days, but not abstinence. The effect of A-CHESS through outpatient addiction treatment appeared to reduce the expected number of risky drinking days across follow-ups by 11%.

CONCLUSIONS

The mobile health (mHealth) intervention promoted the use of outpatient addiction treatment, which appeared to contribute to its efficacy in reducing risky drinking. Future research should investigate how mHealth interventions could link patients to needed treatment services and promote the sustained use of these services.

Endovascular Versus Open Revascularization for Peripheral Arterial Disease

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine whether endovascular or open revascularization provides an advantageous approach to symptomatic peripheral arterial disease (PAD) over the longer term.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The optimal revascularization strategy for symptomatic lower extremity PAD is not established.

METHODS

We evaluated amputation-free survival, overall survival, and relative rate of subsequent vascular intervention after endovascular or open lower extremity revascularization for propensity-score matched cohorts of Medicare beneficiaries with PAD from 2006 through 2009.

RESULTS

Among 14,685 eligible patients, 5928 endovascular and 5928 open revascularization patients were included in matched analysis. Patients undergoing endovascular repair had improved amputation-free survival compared with open repair at 30 days (7.4 vs 8.9%, P = 0.002). This benefit persisted over the long term: At 4 years, 49% of endovascular patients had died or received major amputation compared with 54% of open patients (P < 0.001). An endovascular procedure was associated with a risk-adjusted 16% decreased risk of amputation or death compared with open over the study period (hazard ratio: 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.89; P < 0.001). The amputation-free survival benefit associated with an endovascular revascularization was more pronounced in patients with congestive heart failure or ischemic heart disease than in those without (P = 0.021 for interaction term). The rate of subsequent intervention at 30 days was 7.4% greater for the endovascular vs the open revascularization cohort. At 4 years, this difference remained stable at 8.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using population-based data, we demonstrate that an endovascular approach is associated with improved amputation-free survival over the long term with only a modest relative increased risk of subsequent intervention.

A hierarchical causal taxonomy of psychopathology across the life span

We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences. Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the 3 levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record

Practice variations in voice treatment selection following vocal fold mucosal resection

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS

To characterize initial voice treatment selection following vocal fold mucosal resection in a Medicare population.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of a large, nationally representative Medicare claims database.

METHODS

Patients with > 12 months of continuous Medicare coverage who underwent a leukoplakia- or cancer-related vocal fold mucosal resection (index) procedure during calendar years 2004 to 2009 were studied. The primary outcome of interest was receipt of initial voice treatment (thyroplasty, vocal fold injection, or speech therapy) following the index procedure. We evaluated the cumulative incidence of each postindex treatment type, treating the other treatment types as competing risks, and further evaluated postindex treatment utilization using the proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk. Patient age, sex, and Medicaid eligibility were used as predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 2,041 patients underwent 2,427 index procedures during the study period. In 14% of cases, an initial voice treatment event was identified. Women were significantly less likely to receive surgical or behavioral treatment compared to men. From age 65 to 75 years, the likelihood of undergoing surgical treatment increased significantly with each 5-year age increase; after age 75 years, the likelihood of undergoing either surgical or behavioral treatment decreased significantly every 5 years. Patients with low socioeconomic status were significantly less likely to undergo speech therapy.

CONCLUSION

The majority of Medicare patients do not undergo voice treatment following vocal fold mucosal resection. Further, the treatments analyzed here appear disproportionally utilized based on patient sex, age, and socioeconomic status. Additional research is needed to determine whether these observations reflect clinically explainable differences or disparities in care.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

2c. Laryngoscope, 126:2505-2512, 2016.

Use of a novel statistical technique to examine the delivery of breast cancer follow-up care by different types of oncology providers

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Frequent follow-up is recommended for the more than 3 million breast cancer survivors living in the USA. Given the multidisciplinary nature of breast cancer treatment, follow-up may be provided by medical oncologists, radiation oncologists, surgeons and primary care providers. This creates the potential for significant redundancy as well as gaps in care. The objective was to examine patterns of breast cancer follow-up provided by different types of oncologists and develop a statistical means of quantifying visit distribution over time.

METHODS

We identified stage I-III breast cancer patients who underwent breast conservation from 2000 to 2006 (n = 12 139) within the SEER-Medicare linked database. Provider type was defined using Medicare specialty provider codes and AMA Masterfile. The coefficient of variation (CV) for time between oncologist follow-up visits was calculated. Ordinal logistic regression assessed factors associated with CV.

RESULTS

Substantial variation in CV was observed. Sixty-seven per cent of patients with low CV (high visit regularity) received follow-up from a single oncologist type, versus 8% with high CV (low visit regularity). The number of oncologist types participating in follow-up had the greatest association with high CV (odds ratio 7.4 [6.7-8.3] and 15.4 [13.6-17.6] for two and three oncologist types).

CONCLUSIONS

Using a novel means of quantifying follow-up visit regularity, we determined that breast cancer patients with dispersed follow-up with more than one oncologist have more disordered care. The CV could be used in electronic medical records to identify cancer survivors with more disordered.

Genetic and Environmental Contributions to Associations between Infant Fussy Temperament and Antisocial Behavior in Childhood and Adolescence

Previous research suggests that fussy temperament in infancy predicts risk for later antisocial behavior (ASB) in childhood and adolescence. It remains unclear, however, to what extent infant fussiness is related to later ASB through causal processes or if they both reflect the same family risk factors for ASB. The current study used two approaches, the comparison of siblings and bivariate biometric modeling, to reduce familial confounding and examine genetic and environmental influences on associations between fussiness in the first 2 years of life and ASB in childhood and late adolescence. Analyses were conducted on data from a prospective cohort (9237 at 4-9 years and 7034 at 14-17 years) who are the offspring of a nationally representative sample of US women. In the full sample, fussiness predicted both child and adolescent ASB to small but significant extents, controlling for a wide range of measured child and family-level covariates. When siblings who differed in their fussiness were compared, fussiness predicted ASB in childhood, but not ASB during adolescence. Furthermore, results from a bivariate Cholesky model suggested that even the association of fussiness with childhood ASB found when comparing siblings is attributable to familial factors. That is, although families with infants who are higher in fussiness also tend to have children and adolescents who engage in greater ASB, the hypothesis that infant fussiness has an environmentally mediated impact on the development of future ASB was not strongly supported.

Site-specific, adult bone benefits attributed to loading during youth: A preliminary longitudinal analysis

We examined site-specific bone development in relation to childhood and adolescent artistic gymnastics exposure, comparing up to 10years of prospectively acquired longitudinal data in 44 subjects, including 31 non-gymnasts (NON) and 13 gymnasts (GYM) who participated in gymnastics from pre-menarche to ≥1.9years post-menarche. Subjects underwent annual regional and whole-body DXA scans; indices of bone geometry and strength were calculated. Anthropometrics, physical activity, and maturity were assessed annually, coincident with DXA scans. Non-linear mixed effect models centered growth in bone outcomes at menarche and adjusted for menarcheal age, height, and non-bone fat-free mass to evaluate GYM-NON differences. A POST-QUIT variable assessed the withdrawal effect of quitting gymnastics. Curves for bone area, mass (BMC), and strength indices were higher in GYM than NON at both distal radius metaphysis and diaphysis (p<0.0001). At the femoral neck, greater GYM BMC (p<0.01), narrower GYM endosteal diameter (p<0.02), and similar periosteal width (p=0.09) yielded GYM advantages in narrow neck cortical thickness and buckling ratio (both p<0.001; lower BR indicates lower fracture risk). Lumbar spine and sub-head BMC were greater in GYM than NON (p<0.036). Following gymnastics cessation, GYM slopes increased for distal radius diaphysis parameters (p≤0.01) and for narrow neck BR (p=0.02). At the distal radius metaphysis, GYM BMC and compressive strength slopes decreased, as did slopes for lumbar spine BMC, femoral neck BMC, and narrow neck cortical thickness (p<0.02). In conclusion, advantages in bone mass, geometry, and strength at multiple skeletal sites were noted across growth and into young adulthood in girls who participated in gymnastics loading to at least 1.9years post-menarche. Following gymnastics cessation, advantages at cortical bone sites improved or stabilized, while advantages at corticocancellous sites stabilized or diminished. Additional longitudinal observation is necessary to determine whether residual loading benefits enhance lifelong skeletal strength.

Inter-rater agreement and checklist validation for postoperative wound assessment using smartphone images in vascular surgery

OBJECTIVE

Surgical site infection (SSI) is the most common nosocomial infection, in vascular surgery patients, who experience a high rate of readmission. Facilitating transition from hospital to outpatient care with digital image-based wound monitoring has the potential to detect and to enable treatment of SSI at an early stage. In this study, we evaluated whether smartphone digital images can supplant in-person evaluation of postoperative vascular surgery wounds.

METHODS

We developed a wound assessment checklist using previously validated criteria. We recruited adults who underwent a vascular surgical procedure between 2014 and 2015, involving an incision of at least 3 cm, from a high-volume academic vascular surgery service. Vascular surgery care providers evaluated wounds in person using the assessment checklist; a different group of providers evaluated wounds by a smartphone digital image. Inter-rater agreement coefficients for wound characteristics and treatment plan were calculated within and between the in-person group and the digital image group; the sensitivity and specificity of digital images relative to in-person evaluation were determined.

RESULTS

We assessed a total of 80 wounds. Regardless of modality, inter-rater agreement was poor when wounds were evaluated for the presence of ecchymosis and redness; moderate for cellulitis; and high for the presence of a drain, necrosis, or dehiscence. As expected, the presence of drainage was more readily observed in person. Inter-rater agreement was high for both in-person and image-based assessment with respect to course of treatment, with near-perfect agreement for treatments ranging from antibiotics to surgical débridement to hospital readmission. No difference in agreement emerged when raters evaluated poor-quality compared with high-quality images. For most parameters, specificity was higher than sensitivity for image-based compared with "gold standard" in-person assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

Using smartphone digital images is a valid method for evaluating postoperative vascular surgery wounds and is comparable to in-person evaluation with regard to most wound characteristics. The inter-rater reliability for determining treatment recommendations was universally high. Remote wound monitoring and assessment may play an integral role in future transitional care models to decrease readmission for SSI in vascular or other surgical patients. These findings will inform smartphone implementation in the clinical care setting as wound images transition from informal clinical communication to becoming part of the care standard.

Predictors of surgical site infection after hospital discharge in patients undergoing major vascular surgery

OBJECTIVE

Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common postoperative complications after vascular reconstruction, producing significant morbidity and hospital readmission. In contrast to SSI that develops while patients are still hospitalized, little is known about the cohort of patients who develop SSI after discharge. In this study, we explore the factors that lead to postdischarge SSI, investigate the differences between risk factors for in-hospital vs postdischarge SSI, and develop a scoring system to identify patients who might benefit from postdischarge monitoring of their wounds.

METHODS

Patients who underwent major vascular surgery from 2005 to 2012 for aneurysm and lower extremity occlusive disease were identified from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Participant Use Files. Patients were categorized as having no SSI, in-hospital SSI, or SSI after hospital discharge. Predictors of postdischarge SSI were determined by multivariable logistic regression and internally validated by bootstrap resampling. Risk scores were assigned to all significant variables in the model. Summative risk scores were collapsed into quartile-based ordinal categories and defined as low, low/moderate, moderate/high, and high risk. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine predictors of in-hospital SSI.

RESULTS

Of the 49,817 patients who underwent major vascular surgery, 4449 (8.9%) were diagnosed with SSI (2.1% in-hospital SSI; 6.9% postdischarge SSI). By multivariable analysis, factors significantly associated with increased odds of postdischarge SSI include female gender, obesity, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, coronary artery disease, critical limb ischemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dyspnea, neurologic disease, prolonged operative time >4 hours, American Society of Anesthesiology class 4 or 5, lower extremity revascularization or aortoiliac procedure, and groin anastomosis. The model exhibited moderate discrimination (bias-corrected C statistic, 0.691) and excellent internal calibration. The postdischarge SSI rate was 2.1% for low-risk patients, 5.1% for low/moderate-risk patients, 7.8% for moderate/high-risk patients, and 14% for high-risk patients. In a comparative analysis, comorbidities were the primary driver of postdischarge SSI, whereas in-hospital factors (operative time, emergency case status) and complications predicted in-hospital SSI.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of SSIs after major vascular surgery develop following hospital discharge. We have created a scoring system that can select a cohort of patients at high risk for SSI after discharge. These patients can be targeted for transitional care efforts focused on early detection and treatment with the goal of reducing morbidity and preventing readmission secondary to SSI.

Prospective association of childhood receptive vocabulary and conduct problems with self-reported adolescent delinquency: tests of mediation and moderation in sibling-comparison analyses

Associations among receptive vocabulary measured at 4-9 years, mother-reported childhood conduct problems at 4-9 years, and self-reported adolescent delinquency at 14-17 years were assessed using data from a prospective study of the offspring of a large U.S. nationally representative sample of women. A novel quasi-experimental strategy was used to rule out family-level confounding by estimating path-analytic associations within families in a sibling comparison design. This allowed simultaneous tests of the direct and indirect effects of receptive vocabulary and childhood conduct problems, and of their joint moderation, on adolescent delinquency without family-level environmental confounding. The significant association of receptive vocabulary with later adolescent delinquency was indirect, mediated by childhood conduct problems. Furthermore, a significant interaction between receptive vocabulary and childhood conduct problems reflected a steeper slope for the predictive association between childhood conduct problems and adolescent delinquency when receptive vocabulary scores were higher. These findings of significant indirect association were qualitatively identical in both population-level and within-family analyses, suggesting that they are not the result of family-level confounds.

Development of a list of high-risk operations for patients 65 years and older

IMPORTANCE

No consensus exists regarding the definition of high-risk surgery in older adults. An inclusive and precise definition of high-risk surgery may be useful for surgeons, patients, researchers, and hospitals.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a list of high-risk operations.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study and modified Delphi procedure. The setting included all Pennsylvania acute care hospitals (Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council [PHC4] April 1, 2001, to December 31, 2007) and a nationally representative sample of US acute care hospitals (Nationwide Inpatient Sample [NIS], Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2006). Patients included were those 65 years and older admitted to PHC4 hospitals and those 18 years and older admitted to NIS hospitals. We identified International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) procedure codes associated with at least 1% inpatient mortality in the PHC4. We used a modified Delphi procedure with 5 board-certified surgeons to further refine this list by excluding nonoperative procedures and operations that were unlikely to be the proximate cause of mortality and were instead a marker of critical illness (eg, tracheostomy). We then cross-validated this list of ICD-9-CM codes in the NIS.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Modified Delphi procedure consensus of at least 4 of 5 panelists and proportion agreement in the NIS.

RESULTS

Among 4,739,522 admissions of patients 65 years and older in the PHC4, a total of 2,569,589 involved a procedure, encompassing 2853 unique procedures. Of 1130 procedures associated with a crude inpatient mortality of at least 1%, 264 achieved consensus as high-risk operations by the modified Delphi procedure. The observed inpatient mortality in the NIS was at least 1% for 227 of 264 procedures (86%) in patients 65 years and older. The pooled inpatient mortality for these identified high-risk procedures performed on patients 65 years and older was double the pooled inpatient mortality for correspondingly identified high-risk operations for patients younger than 65 years (6% vs 3%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

We developed a list of procedure codes to identify high-risk surgical procedures in claims data. This list of high-risk operations can be used to standardize the definition of high-risk surgery in quality and outcomes-based studies and to design targeted clinical interventions.

BIASED SAMPLING DESIGNS TO IMPROVE RESEARCH EFFICIENCY: FACTORS INFLUENCING PULMONARY FUNCTION OVER TIME IN CHILDREN WITH ASTHMA

Substudies of the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP Research Group, 1999, 2000) seek to identify patient characteristics associated with asthma symptoms and lung function. To determine if genetic measures are associated with trajectories of lung function as measured by forced vital capacity (FVC), children in the primary cohort study retrospectively had candidate loci evaluated. Given participant burden and constraints on financial resources, it is often desirable to target a sub-sample for ascertainment of costly measures. Methods that can leverage the longitudinal outcome on the full cohort to selectively measure informative individuals have been promising, but have been restricted in their use to analysis of the targeted sub-sample. In this paper we detail two multiple imputation analysis strategies that exploit outcome and partially observed covariate data on the non-sampled subjects, and we characterize alternative design and analysis combinations that could be used for future studies of pulmonary function and other outcomes. Candidate predictor (e.g. IL10 cytokine polymorphisms) associations obtained from targeted sampling designs can be estimated with very high efficiency compared to standard designs. Further, even though multiple imputation can dramatically improve estimation efficiency for covariates available on all subjects (e.g., gender and baseline age), only modest efficiency gains were observed in parameters associated with predictors that are exclusive to the targeted sample. Our results suggest that future studies of longitudinal trajectories can be efficiently conducted by use of outcome-dependent designs and associated full cohort analysis.

Criterion validity of the general factor of psychopathology in a prospective study of girls

BACKGROUND

The best-fitting model of the structure of common psychopathology often includes a general factor on which all dimensions of psychopathology load. Such a general factor would be important if it reflects etiologies and mechanisms shared by all dimensions of psychopathology. Nonetheless, a viable alternative explanation is that the general factor is partly or wholly a result of common method variance or other systematic measurement biases.

METHODS

To test this alternative explanation, we extracted general, externalizing, and internalizing factor scores using mother-reported symptoms across 5-11 years of age in confirmatory factor analyses of data from a representative longitudinal study of 2,450 girls. Independent associations between the three psychopathology factor scores and teacher-reported criterion variables were estimated in multiple regression, controlling intelligence, and demographic covariates.

RESULTS

The model including the general factor fit significantly better than a correlated two-factor (internalizing/externalizing) model. The general factor was robustly and independently associated with all measures of teacher-reported school functioning concurrently during childhood and prospectively during adolescence.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings weaken the hypothesis that the general factor of psychopathology in childhood is solely a measurement artifact and support further research on the substantive meaning of the general factor.

Fitting Procedures for Novel Gene-by-Measured Environment Interaction Models in Behavior Genetic Designs

For quantitative behavior genetic (e.g., twin) studies, Purcell proposed a novel model for testing gene-by-measured environment (GxM) interactions while accounting for gene-by-environment correlation. Rathouz et al. expanded this model into a broader class of non-linear biometric models for quantifying and testing such interactions. In this work, we propose a novel factorization of the likelihood for this class of models, and adopt numerical integration techniques to achieve model estimation, especially for those without close-form likelihood. The validity of our procedures is established through numerical simulation studies. The new procedures are illustrated in a twin study analysis of the moderating effect of birth weight on the genetic influences on childhood anxiety. A second example is given in an online appendix. Both the extant GxM models and the new non-linear models critically assume normality of all structural components, which implies continuous, but not normal, manifest response variables.

Comparing Alternative Biometric Models with and without Gene-by-Measured Environment Interaction in Behavior Genetic Designs: Statistical Operating Characteristics

To extend Purcell's well known ACE model in testing gene by measured environment interactions (GxM) in behavior genetic designs, Rathouz et al. considered a broader class of models for quantifying and testing such interactions. Only a sub-group of these extended models have been investigated for their statistical operating characteristics by Van Hulle et al. due to lack of closed form likelihood. With an estimation procedure developed using numerical techniques in a companion paper, we study statistical operating characteristics of these extended models, especially those with non-linear effects. Type I error analysis shows the likelihood ratio test for GxM to be conservative in testing models extended from the bivariate Cholesky model, and to be liberal for models extended from the bivariate correlated factors model. Parameter estimation for all models is very good, with little bias exhibited for most models and parameters. Comparisons among alternative models under various simulated conditions show that it is relatively more difficult to confirm the existence of gene by environment interactions versus to detect non-linear effects which exclude such interactions.

Spirituality and the recovery of quality of life following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

OBJECTIVE

Spirituality has been linked to improved adjustment and functioning in individuals with cancer; however, its effect on quality of life following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) has not been well-studied. This study investigated changes in spirituality in hematologic cancer patients recovering from HSCT and relationships between spirituality and dimensions of quality of life following HSCT.

METHODS

Participants (N = 220) completed measures of two dimensions of spirituality (meaning/peace and religious faith), depression, anxiety, fatigue, pain, and physical and functional well-being prior to transplant and at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-months posttransplant.

RESULTS

Meaning/peace declined at 1-month posttransplant and returned to pretransplant levels by 6-months posttransplant, and faith increased from pretransplant to 6-months posttransplant. Mixed-effects linear regression models indicated that greater pretransplant meaning/peace, but not religious faith, predicted less depression, anxiety, and fatigue, and better physical and functional well-being during the 12-months following transplant.

CONCLUSIONS

The capacity to find meaning and peace may facilitate recovery following HSCT. Results suggest that spirituality may be a resilience factor that could be targeted to improve quality of life for HSCT recipients.

Bayesian approach for flexible modeling of semicompeting risks data

Semicompeting risks data arise when two types of events, non-terminal and terminal, are observed. When the terminal event occurs first, it censors the non-terminal event, but not vice versa. To account for possible dependent censoring of the non-terminal event by the terminal event and to improve prediction of the terminal event using the non-terminal event information, it is crucial to model their association properly. Motivated by a breast cancer clinical trial data analysis, we extend the well-known illness-death models to allow flexible random effects to capture heterogeneous association structures in the data. Our extension also represents a generalization of the popular shared frailty models that usually assume that the non-terminal event does not affect the hazards of the terminal event beyond a frailty term. We propose a unified Bayesian modeling approach that can utilize existing software packages for both model fitting and individual-specific event prediction. The approach is demonstrated via both simulation studies and a breast cancer data set analysis.

Patterns of heterotypic continuity associated with the cross-sectional correlational structure of prevalent mental disorders in adults

IMPORTANCE

Mental disorders predict future occurrences of both the same disorder (homotypic continuity) and other disorders (heterotypic continuity). Heterotypic continuity is inconsistent with a view of mental disorders as fixed entities. In contrast, hierarchical-dimensional conceptualizations of psychopathology, in which each form of psychopathology is hypothesized to have both unique and broadly shared etiologies and mechanisms, predict both homotypic and heterotypic continuity.

OBJECTIVE

To test predictions derived from a hierarchical-dimensional model of psychopathology that (1) heterotypic continuity is widespread, even controlling for homotypic continuity, and that (2) the relative magnitudes of heterotypic continuities recapitulate the relative magnitudes of cross-sectional correlations among diagnoses at baseline.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Ten prevalent diagnoses were assessed in the same person twice (ie, in 2 waves separated by 3 years). We used a representative sample of adults in the United States (i.e., 28,958 participants 18-64 years of age in the National Epidemiologic Study of Alcohol and Related Conditions who were assessed in both waves).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Diagnoses from reliable and valid structured interviews.

RESULTS

Adjusting for sex and age, we found that bivariate associations of all pairs of diagnoses from wave 1 to wave 2 exceeded chance levels (P < .05) for all homotypic (median tetrachoric correlation of ρ = 0.54 [range, 0.41-0.79]) and for nearly all heterotypic continuities (median tetrachoric correlation of ρ = 0.28 [range, 0.07-0.50]). Significant heterotypic continuity was widespread even when all wave 1 diagnoses (including the same diagnosis) were simultaneous predictors of each wave 2 diagnosis. The rank correlation between age- and sex-adjusted tetrachoric correlation for cross-sectional associations among wave 1 diagnoses and for heterotypic associations from wave 1 to wave 2 diagnoses was ρ = 0.86 (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

For these prevalent mental disorders, heterotypic continuity was nearly universal and not an artifact of failure to control for homotypic continuity. Furthermore, the relative magnitudes of heterotypic continuity closely mirrored the relative magnitudes of cross-sectional associations among these disorders, consistent with the hypothesis that both sets of associations reflect the same factors. Mental disorders are not fixed and independent entities. Rather, each diagnosis is robustly related to other diagnoses in a correlational structure that is manifested both concurrently and in patterns of heterotypic continuity across time.

Sleep quality following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: longitudinal trajectories and biobehavioral correlates

The present study examined changes in sleep quality following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and investigated associations with biobehavioral factors. Individuals undergoing HSCT for hematologic malignancies (N=228) completed measures of sleep quality and psychological symptoms pre-transplant and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months post-transplant. Circulating inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α) were also assessed. Sleep quality was poorest at one month post-transplant, improving and remaining relatively stable after 3 months post-transplant. However, approximately half of participants continued to experience significant sleep disturbance at 6 and 12 months post-transplant. Mixed-effects linear regression models indicated that depression and anxiety were associated with poorer sleep quality, while psychological well-being was associated with better sleep. Higher circulating levels of IL-6 were also linked with poorer sleep. Subject-level fixed effects models demonstrated that among individual participants, changes in depression, anxiety, and psychological well-being were associated with corresponding changes in sleep after covarying for the effects of time since transplant. Sleep disturbance was most severe when depression and anxiety were greatest, and psychological well-being was lowest. Findings indicate that sleep disturbance is a persistent problem during the year following HSCT. Patients experiencing depression or anxiety and those with elevated inflammation may be at particular risk for poor sleep.

Common genetic influences on negative emotionality and a general psychopathology factor in childhood and adolescence

Previous research using confirmatory factor analysis to model psychopathology comorbidity has supported the hypothesis of a broad general factor (i.e., a "bifactor"; Holzinger & Swineford, 1937) of psychopathology in children, adolescents, and adults, with more specific higher order internalizing and externalizing factors reflecting additional shared variance in symptoms (Lahey et al., 2012; Lahey, van Hulle, Singh, Waldman, & Rathouz, 2011). The psychological nature of this general factor has not been explored, however. The current study tested a prediction, derived from the spectrum hypothesis of personality and psychopathology, that variance in a general psychopathology bifactor overlaps substantially-at both phenotypic and genetic levels-with the dispositional trait of negative emotionality. Data on psychopathology symptoms and dispositional traits were collected from both parents and youth in a representative sample of 1,569 twin pairs (ages 9-17 years) from Tennessee. Predictions based on the spectrum hypothesis were supported, with variance in negative emotionality and the general factor overlapping substantially at both phenotypic and etiologic levels. Furthermore, stronger correlations were found between negative emotionality and the general psychopathology factor than among other dispositions and other psychopathology factors.

Cognitive development in children with new onset epilepsy

AIM

To characterize the prospective trajectory of cognitive development in children with new or recent onset epilepsy from baseline to 5 to 6 years after diagnosis.

METHOD

Sixty-nine children (40 males, 29 females; age 8-18y), with new or recent onset epilepsies underwent neuropsychological assessment shortly after diagnosis (Wave 1), 2 years (Wave 2), and 5 to 6 years after diagnosis (Wave 3). Intelligence, academic achievement, language, executive function, and psychomotor speed were evaluated. Sixty-two children (28 males, 34 females; age 8-18) with typical development served as a comparison group at each time point. The cognitive data were examined by syndrome (localization-related epilepsy [LRE]; idiopathic generalized epilepsy [IGE]; comparison group). Mixed effect regression models compared trajectories among groups with respect to time since diagnosis.

RESULTS

Cognitive abnormalities exhibited by children with epilepsy in arithmetic computation, response inhibition, attention, fine motor dexterity, and psychomotor speed (all p values <0.001), are detectable at or near the time of diagnosis and largely remain stable over the ensuing 5 to 6 years without evidence of progressive worsening or recovery. This course is evident across both LRE and IGE groups, with the LRE group performing better for some outcomes (arithmetic, response inhibition, psychomotor speed) and never worse than the IGE group.

INTERPRETATION

Cognitive development in children with LRE and IGE is not characterized by progressive deterioration or lack of age-appropriate development; rather, development lags behind that of children with typical development. Cognitive abnormalities, when detected, are present near the time of diagnosis, persist over time, and require early intervention.

Perceived discrimination is associated with reduced breast and cervical cancer screening: the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN)

BACKGROUND

Racial disparities in breast and cervical cancer screening have been documented in African American, Hispanic, and Asian populations. Perceived discrimination may contribute to this disparity. The aim of this study was to understand the relationship between perceived everyday racial/ethnic and other discrimination and receipt of breast and cervical cancer screening in a multiethnic population of women.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 3,258 women participating in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN), a multiethnic/racial, longitudinal cohort study of the natural history of the menopausal transition conducted at seven U.S. sites. Participants completed a validated measure of perceived discrimination and reasons for believing that they were treated differently, along with Pap smears, clinical breast exams (CBE), and mammography at each follow-up period. We used multiple logistic regression for the binary outcomes of having a Pap smear, CBE, or mammogram in each of the two follow-up years, using self-reported "race discrimination" and "other discrimination" at baseline as the main predictors.

RESULTS

African American women reported the highest percentage of racial discrimination (35%), followed by Chinese (20%), Hispanic (12%), Japanese (11%), and non-Hispanic white women (3%). Non-Hispanic white women reported the highest percentage of "other" discrimination (40%), followed by Chinese (33%), African American (24%), Japanese (23%), and Hispanic women (16%). Perceived racial discrimination was not associated with reduced receipt of preventive screening, except in one fully adjusted model. Reported discrimination owing to "other" reasons, such as age or gender, was associated with reduced receipt of Pap smear (odds ratio [OR] 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-0.99), CBE (OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.67-0.91), and mammography (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.69-0.92) regardless of patient race.

CONCLUSIONS

Perceived discrimination is an important issue across racial/ethnic groups and is negatively associated with receipt of breast and cervical cancer screening. This is an important issue that needs to be further explored and addressed in efforts to improve the delivery of healthcare to all groups.