Pre-diagnostic predictors of mortality in patients with heart failure: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

Background

There are multiple predictive factors for cardiovascular (CV) mortality measured at, or after heart failure (HF) diagnosis. However, the predictive role of long-term exposure to these predictors prior to HF diagnosis is unknown.

Objectives

We aim to identify predictive factors of CV mortality in participants with HF, using cumulative exposure to risk factors before HF development.

Methods

Participants of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with incident HF were included. We used stepwise Akaike Information Criterion to select CV mortality predictors among clinical, biochemical, and imaging markers collected prior to HF. Using the AUC of B-spline-corrected curves, we estimated cumulative exposure to predictive factors from baseline to the last exam before HF. The prognostic performance for CV mortality after HF was evaluated using competing risk regression with non-CV mortality as the competing risk.

Results

Overall, 375 participants had new HF events (42.9% female, mean age: 74). Over an average follow-up of 4.7 years, there was no difference in the hazard of CV death for HF with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction (HR = 1.27, p = 0.23). The selected predictors of CV mortality in models with the least prediction error were age, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, QRS duration, HDL, cumulative exposure to total cholesterol and glucose, NT-proBNP, left ventricular mass, and statin use. The AUC of the models were 0.72 when including the latest exposure to predictive factors and 0.79 when including cumulative prior exposure to predictive factors (p = 0.20).

Conclusion

In HF patients, besides age and diagnosed diabetes or CVD, prior lipid profile, NT-proBNP, LV mass, and QRS duration available at the diagnosis time strongly predict CV mortality. Implementing cumulative exposure to cholesterol and glucose, instead of latest measures, improves predictive accuracy for HF mortality, though not reaching statistical significance.

Persistent Asthma Is Associated With Carotid Plaque in MESA

Background Asthma and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease share an underlying inflammatory pathophysiology. We hypothesized that persistent asthma is associated with carotid plaque burden, a strong predictor of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. Methods and Results The MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) enrolled adults free of known atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease at baseline. Subtype of asthma was determined at examination 1. Persistent asthma was defined as asthma requiring use of controller medications, and intermittent asthma was defined as asthma without controller medications. B-mode carotid ultrasound was performed to detect carotid plaques (total plaque score [TPS], range 0-12). Multivariable regression modeling with robust variances evaluated the association of asthma subtype and carotid plaque burden. The 5029 participants were a mean (SD) age of 61.6 (10.0) years (53% were women, 26% were Black individuals, 23% were Hispanic individuals, and 12% were Chinese individuals). Carotid plaque was present in 50.5% of participants without asthma (TPS, 1.29 [1.80]), 49.5% of participants with intermittent asthma (TPS, 1.25 [1.76]), and 67% of participants with persistent asthma (TPS, 2.08 [2.35]) (P≤0.003). Participants with persistent asthma had higher interleukin-6 (1.89 [1.61] pg/mL) than participants without asthma (1.52 [1.21] pg/mL; P=0.02). In fully adjusted models, persistent asthma was associated with carotid plaque presence (odds ratio, 1.83 [95% confidence interval, 1.21-2.76]; P<0.001) and TPS (β=0.66; P<0.01), without attenuation after adjustment for baseline interleukin-6 (P=0.02) or CRP (C-reactive protein) (P=0.01). Conclusions Participants with persistent asthma had higher carotid plaque burden and higher levels of inflammatory biomarkers, compared with participants without asthma. Adjustment for baseline inflammatory biomarkers did not attenuate the association between carotid plaque and asthma subtype, highlighting the increased atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk among those with persistent asthma may be multifactorial.

Biomarkers of Vitamin D Metabolism and Hip and Vertebral Fracture Risk: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Studies on associations between biomarkers of vitamin D metabolism and fracture risk have focused predominantly on White or elderly populations and may not be generalizable to relatively healthy multiethnic populations. We tested associations of total 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), the ratio of 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 to 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (vitamin D metabolite ratio, VDMR), parathyroid hormone (PTH), and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) concentrations measured in serum with risk of hip and vertebral fractures in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 and D3 and 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The study cohort of 6466 participants was without clinically apparent cardiovascular disease and was 39% White, 27% Black, 22% Hispanic, and 12% Chinese. The mean age was 62 years, and 53% were female. There were 128 hip and vertebral fractures over a mean follow-up of 14.2 years. 25(OH)D, the VDMR, PTH, and FGF-23 were not significantly associated with fracture risk after adjustment for demographics, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, medication use, albuminuria, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Principal component analysis did not suggest differences in linear combinations of 25(OH)D, the VDMR, PTH, and FGF-23 between participants who experienced fractures and those who did not. We did not observe significant interaction between race and ethnicity and any biomarker of vitamin D metabolism on fracture risk. In conclusion, none of the four serum biomarkers of vitamin D metabolism investigated showed a significant association with fracture risk in relatively healthy multiethnic populations. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Cholesterol mass efflux capacity and coronary artery calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

We assessed the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships of high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-mediated cholesterol mass efflux capacity (CMEC) with coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and CAC density. CMEC was measured in 1626 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants in samples obtained between 2000 and 2002 as part of two nested case-control studies, one with cases of incident cardiovascular disease and the other with cases of carotid plaque progression by ultrasound. Cardiac CT examinations for the presence of CAC were performed at baseline and at two additional examinations. CAC scores (Agatston and volume) and density scores (for those with positive CAC) were calculated. Multivariable linear regression modeling per SD increment of CMEC was used to estimate the associations of CMEC with each of these CAC measures. We found no association between higher CMEC and either lower CAC scores or a higher CAC density. We also found no association between higher CMEC and progression of any of these CAC measures. These findings suggest that HDL-mediated cholesterol efflux may be associated with cardiovascular risk via mechanisms unrelated to burden of calcified plaque.

The value of additional risk factors for improving 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in apparently healthy people

Background

In clinical practice, factors known to be associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) like albuminuria, education level, or coronary calcium score are not directly incorporated in cardiovascular risk prediction models. The aim of the current study was to quantify the added value of potential risk modifying characteristics when added to the SCORE2 algorithm for individuals without diabetes mellitus (DM) or prior CVD.

Methods and results

Individuals without previous CVD or DM were included from the ARIC, MESA, EPIC-NL and HNR studies (n=46,285) in whom 2,177 CVD events and 2,062 non-cardiovascular deaths were observed over exactly 10.0 years of follow-up. The effect of each possible risk modifying characteristic was derived using Fine and Gray models that included an offset term for the SCORE2 linear predictor. The risk modifying characteristics were applied to individual predictions using the “naïve approach”, which modifies predicted risks based on the population prevalence and the SHR of the relevant predictor. Subdistribution hazard ratios are presented in the table. External validation was performed in the CPRD cohort (UK, n=518,015, 12,675 CVD events). In the external validation, adjustment of SCORE2 predicted risks with both single and with all available risk modifiers did not negatively affect calibration (see figure) and led to a modest increase in discrimination (C-index 0.742 [95% CI 0.737–0.746] versus unimproved SCORE2 risk C-index 0.737 [95% CI 0.732–0.741]). The net reclassification index or adding all these predictors was +0.032 (95% CI 0.025; 0.028) for future events and −0.008 (95% CI −0.009; −0.007) for future non-events. The coronary calcium score was found to the single strongest added predictor.

Interpretation

The current analysis presents a method on how to integrate possible risk modifying characteristics that are not included in existing CVD risk models for the prediction of CVD event risk in apparently healthy people. This flexible methodology improves the accuracy of predicted risks and increases applicability of prediction models for individuals with additional risk known modifiers

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Plasma proteoforms of apolipoproteins C-I and C-II are associated with plasma lipids in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Apolipoproteins (apo) C-I and C-II are key regulators of triglyceride and HDL metabolism. Both exist as full-size native and truncated (apoC-I'; apoC-II') posttranslational proteoforms. However, the determinants and the role of these proteoforms in lipid metabolism are unknown. Here, we measured apoC-I and apoC-II proteoforms by mass spectrometry immunoassay in baseline and 10-year follow-up plasma samples from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. We found that baseline total apoC-I (mean = 9.2 mg/dl) was lower in African Americans (AA), Chinese Americans (CA), and Hispanics (by 1.8; 1.0; 1.0 mg/dl vs. whites), higher in women (by 1.2 mg/dl), and positively associated with plasma triglycerides and HDL. Furthermore, we observed that the truncated-to-native apoC-I ratio (apoC-I'/C-I) was lower in CA, negatively associated with triglycerides, and positively associated with HDL. We determined that total apoC-II (8.8 mg/dl) was lower in AA (by 0.8 mg/dl) and higher in CA and Hispanics (by 0.5 and 0.4 mg/dl), positively associated with triglycerides, and negatively associated with HDL. In addition, apoC-II'/C-II was higher in AA and women, negatively associated with triglycerides, and positively associated with HDL. We showed that the change in triglycerides was positively associated with changes in total apoC-I and apoC-II and negatively associated with changes in apoC-I'/C-I and apoC-II'/C-II, whereas the change in HDL was positively associated with changes in total apoC-I and apoC-II'/C-II and negatively associated with change in total apoC-II. This study documents racial/ethnic variation in apoC-I and apoC-II plasma levels and highlights apolipoprotein posttranslational modification as a potential regulator of plasma lipids.

Development and evaluation of a survey instrument to assess veterinary medical record suitability for multi-center research studies

Here we describe the development and evaluation of a survey instrument to assess the research suitability of veterinary electronic medical records (EMRs) through the conduct of two studies as part of the Dog Aging Project (DAP). In study 1, four reviewers used the instrument to score a total of 218 records in an overlapping matrix of pairs to assess inter-rater agreement with respect to appropriate format (qualification), identification match (verification), and record quality. Based upon the moderate inter-rater agreement with respect to verification and the relatively large number of records that were incorrectly rejected the instrument was modified and more specific instructions were provided. In study 2, a modified instrument was again completed by four reviewers to score 100 different EMRs. The survey scores were compared to a gold standard of board-certified specialist review to determine receiver operating curve statistics. The refined survey had substantial inter-rater agreement across most qualification and verification questions. The cut-off value identified had a sensitivity of 95 and 96% (by reviewer 1 and reviewer 2, respectively) and a specificity of 82% and 91% (by reviewer 1 and reviewer 2, respectively) to predict gold standard acceptance or rejection of the record. Using just qualification and verification questions within the instrument (as opposed to full scoring) minimally impacted sensitivity and specificity and resulted in substantial time savings in the review process.

Higher Arm Versus Lower Arm Systolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Outcomes: a Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data From the INTERPRESS-IPD Collaboration

Guidelines recommend measuring blood pressure (BP) in both arms, adopting the higher arm readings for diagnosis and management. Data to support this recommendation are lacking. We evaluated associations of higher and lower arm systolic BPs with diagnostic and treatment thresholds, and prognosis in hypertension, using data from the Inter-arm Blood Pressure Difference—Individual Participant Data Collaboration.

BMI and Treatment Response in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Background

Obesity is increasingly prevalent in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) but is associated with improved survival, creating an “obesity paradox” in PAH. It is unknown if the improved outcomes could be attributable to obese patients deriving a greater benefit from PAH therapies.

Research Question

Does BMI modify treatment effectiveness in PAH?

Study Design and Methods

Using individual participant data, a meta-analysis was conducted of phase III, randomized, placebo-controlled trials of treatments for PAH submitted for approval to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration from 2000 to 2015. Primary outcomes were change in 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and World Health Organization (WHO) functional class.

Results

A total of 5,440 participants from 17 trials were included. Patients with overweight and obesity had lower baseline 6MWD and were more likely to be WHO functional class III or IV. Treatment was associated with a 27.01-m increase in 6MWD (95% CI, 21.58-32.45; P < .001) and lower odds of worse WHO functional class (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.48-0.70; P < .001). For every 1 kg/m² increase in BMI, 6MWD was reduced by 0.66 m (P = .07); there was no significant effect modification of treatment response in 6MWD according to BMI (P for interaction = .34). Higher BMI was not associated with odds of WHO functional class at end of follow-up; however, higher BMI attenuated the treatment response such that every 1 kg/m² increase in BMI increased odds of worse WHO functional class by 3% (OR, 1.03; P for interaction = .06).

Interpretation

Patients with overweight and obesity had lower baseline 6MWD and worse WHO functional class than patients with normal weight with PAH. Higher BMI did not modify the treatment response for change in 6MWD, but it attenuated the treatment response for WHO functional class. PAH trials should include participants representative of all weight groups to allow for assessment of treatment heterogeneity and mechanisms.

Resistin and risks of incident heart failure subtypes and cardiac fibrosis: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

AIMS

Resistin is a circulating inflammatory biomarker that is associated with cardiovascular disease. We investigated the associations of resistin and incident heart failure (HF) and its subtypes, as well as specific measures of subclinical HF (myocardial fibrosis and relevant biomarkers).

METHODS

We analysed data from 1968 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with measurements of plasma resistin levels at clinic visits from 2002 to 2005. Participants were subsequently followed for a median of 10.5 years for HF events. The associations between resistin levels and incident HF, HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Linear regression models assessed the associations between resistin levels and myocardial fibrosis from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, as well as hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP.

RESULTS

The mean age of the cohort was 64.7 years, and 50.0% were female. Seventy-four participants (4%) developed incident HF during follow-up. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age, gender, education level, race/ethnicity, and traditional risk factors, higher resistin levels were significantly associated with incident HF (HR 1.44, CI 1.18-1.75, P = 0.001) and HFrEF (HR 1.47, CI 1.07-2.02, P = 0.016), but not with HFpEF (HR 1.25, CI 0.89-1.75, P = 0.195). Resistin levels showed no significant associations with myocardial fibrosis, NT-proBNP, or hs-cTnT levels.

CONCLUSIONS

In a multi-ethnic cohort free of cardiovascular disease at baseline, elevated resistin levels were associated with incident HF, more prominently with incident HFrEF than HFpEF, but not with subclinical myocardial fibrosis or biomarkers of HF.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The MESA Study

BACKGROUND

Despite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

METHODS

MESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history.

RESULTS

During a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]).

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

Density of Calcified Coronary Artery Plaque and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation (from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, as assessed by the Agatston method, is associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to evaluate the associations of CAC volume and density with incident AF. Participants from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis without baseline AF and CAC >0 were included. The associations between baseline and progression (average annual change) of CAC measures and incident AF were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. CAC volume and Agatston scores were natural log (ln)-transformed, and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated per standard deviation increment. The baseline analysis included 3,332 participants; 2,643 were included in the progression analysis. In multivariable models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, volume (HR 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14 to 1.36), density (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.25), and Agatston score (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.35) were associated with increased risk of incident AF. In models including both volume and density, the magnitude of association between volume and incident AF was unchanged, whereas the density association was eliminated (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.11). Median time to follow-up CAC assessment was 1.9 (interquartile range 1.3, 3.0) years. Similar results were observed for the association of incident AF with annual change in volume and Agatston score. CAC volume, but not density, is associated with risk for incident AF when adjusting for both. In conclusion, our findings suggest that, although CAC may be a risk marker for AF, the association between CAC and AF appears to be independent of plaque density.

Lifetime prevalence of malignant and benign tumors in companion dogs: cross‐sectional analysis of Dog Aging Project (DAP) baseline survey

Although cancer is widely regarded as a major contributor to canine morbidity and mortality, its frequency in companion dogs has only infrequently been characterised. We analysed cross-sectional data from the baseline survey of owners of 27 541 living companion dogs enrolled in the Dog Aging Project as of 31 December 2020 to estimate the lifetime prevalence of malignant and benign tumours and several potentially-associated characteristics. Survey questions elicited information on history of 'cancer or tumors' including organ site and histologic type. Owners reported 819 malignant tumours (56% sited in the skin, muscle or other soft tissue) and 404 benign tumours (69% sited in the skin, muscle or other soft tissue). The lifetime prevalence of malignant tumours (29.7/1000 dogs) was approximately double the lifetime prevalence of benign tumours (14.7/1000 dogs). Lifetime prevalence of both malignant and benign tumours increased with dog age at survey completion. There were no statistically discernable differences in age-adjusted lifetime prevalence of malignant (prevalence ratio (PR) = 0.93 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82, 1.07] or benign tumours (PR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.91, 1.34) in mixed vs. purebred dogs. The lifetime prevalence of malignant tumours increased with increasing dog size class; compared to toy and small dogs, the age-adjusted PRs (95% CIs) for medium, standard, large, and giant dogs were 1.65 (1.28, 2.11), 2.92 (2.35, 3.64), 3.67 (2.92, 4.62) and 2.99 (1.23, 4.02), respectively. Similar though less pronounced patterns in relation to dog size class were observed for benign tumours. Ongoing prospective data collection will permit future studies on risk factors for canine tumour incidence.

Recalibration Methods for Improved Clinical Utility of Risk Scores

BACKGROUND

An established risk model may demonstrate miscalibration, meaning predicted risks do not accurately capture event rates. In some instances, investigators can identify and address the cause of miscalibration. In other circumstances, it may be appropriate to recalibrate the risk model. Existing recalibration methods do not account for settings in which the risk score will be used for risk-based clinical decision making.

METHODS

We propose 2 new methods for risk model recalibration when the intended purpose of the risk model is to prescribe an intervention to high-risk individuals. Our measure of risk model clinical utility is standardized net benefit. The first method is a weighted strategy that prioritizes good calibration at or around the critical risk threshold. The second method uses constrained optimization to produce a recalibrated risk model with maximum possible net benefit, thereby prioritizing good calibration around the critical risk threshold. We also propose a graphical tool for assessing the potential for recalibration to improve the net benefit of a risk model. We illustrate these methods by recalibrating the American College of Cardiology (ACC)-American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score within the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort.

RESULTS

New methods are implemented in the R package ClinicalUtilityRecal. Recalibrating the ACC-AHA-ASCVD risk score for a MESA subcohort results in higher estimated net benefit using the proposed methods compared with existing methods, with improved calibration in the most clinically impactful regions of risk.

CONCLUSION

The proposed methods target good calibration for critical risks and can improve the net benefit of a risk model. We recommend constrained optimization when the risk model net benefit is paramount. The weighted approach can be considered when good calibration over an interval of risks is important.

Myocardial fibrosis by T1 mapping magnetic resonance imaging predicts incident cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

AIMS

To evaluate whether myocardial fibrosis predicts cardiovascular events (CVEs) and mortality in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) T1 mapping with gadolinium administration for assessment of extracellular volume fraction (ECV) was performed in 1326 participants, in whom myocardial scar was assessed by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). The clinical outcomes were defined as all-cause mortality, atherosclerotic CVEs, and incident heart failure (HF) during an average of 8 years of follow-up after the scan. Participants' mean native T1 time was 971 ms [standard deviation (SD) 45.5], ECV was 27 (SD 2.9), and 117 (8.8%) of them had LGE. At the time of the CMR exam, participant age was 68 years (SD 9) and 48% of them were women. Ideal cut-offs were identified using classification and regression trees accounting for time-to-event outcomes for ECV (30%) and native T1 time (954 ms). Over the follow-up period, 106 participants died, 78 developed CVE, and 23 developed HF. After adjustment for risk factors, ECV >30% was associated with death [hazard ratio (HR): 1.67, P < 0.05], incident CVE (HR: 2.02, P < 0.05), and incident HF (HR: 2.85, P < 0.05). After adjustments, native T1 >954 ms was associated with incident CVE (HR: 2.09, P < 0.05). Myocardial scar by LGE was not predictive of clinical outcomes after adjustments.

CONCLUSION

ECV is an independent prognostic marker of incident HF, atherosclerotic CVEs, and all-cause mortality. ECV, with its ability to characterize both diffuse and focal fibrosis processes, better predicted incident events than regional myocardial abnormalities as visualized by LGE imaging in a large multi-ethnic population.

Purpose, Partnership, and Possibilities: The Implementation of the Dog Aging Project Biobank

Background:

Biobanks have been supporting longitudinal prospective and retrospective studies by providing standardized services for the acquisition, transport, processing, storage, and distribution of high-quality biological material and associated data. Here, we describe how the Dog Aging Project (DAP), a large-scale longitudinal study of the domestic dog ( Canis familiaris) with translational applications for humans, developed a biobank of canine biospecimens and associated data.

Design and methods:

This was accomplished by working with the Cornell Veterinary Biobank, the first biobank in the world to receive accreditation to ISO 20387:2018—General Requirements for Biobanking. The biobank research team was involved in the early collection stages of the DAP, contributing to the development of appropriate workflows and processing fit-for-purpose biospecimens. In support of a dynamic strategy for real-time adjustment of processes, a pilot phase was implemented to develop, test, and optimize the biospecimen workflows, followed by an early phase of collection, processing, and banking of specimens from DAP participants.

Results:

During the pilot and early phases of collection, the DAP Biobank stored 164 aliquots of whole blood, 273 aliquots of peripheral blood mononuclear cells, 130 aliquots of plasma, and 70 aliquots of serum, and extracted high molecular weight genomic DNA suitable for whole-genome sequencing from 109 whole blood specimens. These specimens, along with their associated preanalytical data, have been made available for distribution to researchers.

Conclusion:

We discuss the challenges and opportunities encountered during the implementation of the DAP Biobank, along with novel strategies for promoting biobanking sustainability such as partnering with a DAP quality assurance manager and a DAP marketing and communication specialist and developing a pilot grant structure to fund small innovative research projects.

Clinical and biomarker modifiers of vitamin D treatment response: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Different 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] thresholds for treatment with vitamin D supplementation have been suggested and are derived almost exclusively from observational studies. Whether other characteristics, including race/ethnicity, BMI, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), should also influence the threshold for treatment is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to identify clinical and biomarker characteristics that modify the response to vitamin D supplementation.

METHODS

A total of 666 older adults in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) were randomly assigned to 16 wk of oral vitamin D3 (2000 IU/d; n = 499) or placebo (n = 167). Primary outcomes were changes in serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D [1,25(OH)2D] concentrations from baseline to 16 wk.

RESULTS

Among 666 participants randomly assigned (mean age: 72 y; 53% female; 66% racial/ethnic minority), 611 (92%) completed the study. The mean (SD) change in PTH was -3 (16) pg/mL with vitamin D3 compared with 2 (18) pg/mL with placebo (estimated mean difference: -5; 95% CI: -8, -2 pg/mL). Within the vitamin D3 group, lower baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] was associated with a larger decline in PTH in a nonlinear fashion. With baseline 25(OH)D ≥30 ng/mL as the reference, 25(OH)D <20 ng/mL was associated with a larger decline in PTH with vitamin D3 supplementation (-10; 95% CI: -15, -6 pg/mL), whereas 25(OH)D of 20-30 ng/mL was not (-2; 95% CI: -6, 1 pg/mL). A segmented threshold model identified a baseline 25(OH)D concentration of 21 (95% CI: 13, 31) ng/mL as an inflection point for difference in change in PTH. Race/ethnicity, BMI, and eGFR did not modify vitamin D treatment response. There was no significant change in 1,25(OH)2D in either treatment group.

CONCLUSIONS

Of characteristics most commonly associated with vitamin D metabolism, only baseline 25(OH)D <20 ng/mL modified the PTH response to vitamin D supplementation, providing support from a clinical trial to use this threshold to define insufficiency. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02925195.

Appendicular Lean Mass, Grip Strength, and the Development of Hospital-Associated Activities of Daily Living Disability among Older Adults in the Health ABC Study

BACKGROUND

Half of all physical disability, including activity of daily living (ADL) disability, among older adults occurs in the setting of hospitalization. This study examines whether appendicular lean mass (ALM) and grip strength, which are commonly included in various definitions of sarcopenia, are associated with development of hospital-associated ADL disability in older adults in the Health ABC Study.

METHODS

Individuals hospitalized during the first 5 years of follow-up (n=1,724) were analyzed. ALM to body mass index (BMI) ratio (ALMBMI), by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and grip strength, by hand-held dynamometery, were assessed annually. Development of new ADL disability was assessed at the time of the next annual assessment after hospitalization. Separate regression analyses modeled the association of pre-hospitalization ALMBMI or grip strength with death before the next scheduled annual assessment. Next, among those who survived to the next annual assessment, separate regression analyses modeled the association of ALMBMI or grip strength with development of ADL disability.

RESULTS

Each standard deviation decrement in pre-hospitalization grip strength was associated with an adjusted 1.80 odds of new ADL disability at follow-up (95% CI: 1.18, 2.74). Low, compared to not low, grip strength (per FNIH definition) was associated with an adjusted 2.36 odds of ADL disability at follow-up (95% CI: 1.12, 4.97). ALM measures were not associated with development of hospital-associated ADL disability. ALM and grip strength measures were not associated with death.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-hospitalization lower grip strength may be an important risk factor for ADL disability among older adult survivors of hospitalization.

Pooled Cohort Equations and the competing risk of cardiovascular disease versus cancer: Multi-Ethnic study of atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

many of the modifiable variables in the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) are shared risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, which are the two leading causes of death in the United States. We sought to determine the utility of the PCE risk for the synergistic risk prediction of CVD and cancer.

METHODS

we identified 5,773 participants (61.5 years and 53% women) without baseline CVD or cancer from the Multi-Ethnic study of atherosclerosis. The primary outcome was time to first event of either incident CVD or incident cancer. We calculated competing risk and cause-specific hazard models to examine the association of the PCE groups (<7.5%, 7.5-<20%, ≥20%) with the competing risk of CVD and cancer.

RESULTS

the rate of incident CVD and cancer was higher with higher PCE risk, but the absolute event rate was low for both CVD and cancer when the PCE risk was <7.5%. Participants with a PCE <7.5% had a higher rate of cancer (4.8) compared to CVD (3.3) per 1000 person-years, while the rate of CVD (11.5) was higher than cancer (8.6) for PCE between 7.5 and <20%. The ratio of CVD to cancer increased in a logarithmic manner and at a PCE risk of approximately 7.2% the risk for CVD and cancer was equal. In adjusted competing risk modeling, a PCE risk of ≥20% compared to <7.5% was associated with a greater risk of both CVD [7.18 (95% CI 5.77-8.94)] and cancer [3.59 (95% CI 2.91-4.43)].

CONCLUSIONS

these findings highlight the importance of age and modifiable risk factors for CVD and cancer prevention. In addition, it suggests that the PCE can provide important information for both CVD and cancer risk stratification, which may guide a synergistic approach to screening and preventive therapies for the two leading causes of death in the United States.

Rationale and design of the Kidney Precision Medicine Project

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI) are common, heterogeneous, and morbid diseases. Mechanistic characterization of CKD and AKI in patients may facilitate a precision-medicine approach to prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. The Kidney Precision Medicine Project aims to ethically and safely obtain kidney biopsies from participants with CKD or AKI, create a reference kidney atlas, and characterize disease subgroups to stratify patients based on molecular features of disease, clinical characteristics, and associated outcomes. An additional aim is to identify critical cells, pathways, and targets for novel therapies and preventive strategies. This project is a multicenter prospective cohort study of adults with CKD or AKI who undergo a protocol kidney biopsy for research purposes. This investigation focuses on kidney diseases that are most prevalent and therefore substantially burden the public health, including CKD attributed to diabetes or hypertension and AKI attributed to ischemic and toxic injuries. Reference kidney tissues (for example, living-donor kidney biopsies) will also be evaluated. Traditional and digital pathology will be combined with transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic analysis of the kidney tissue as well as deep clinical phenotyping for supervised and unsupervised subgroup analysis and systems biology analysis. Participants will be followed prospectively for 10 years to ascertain clinical outcomes. Cell types, locations, and functions will be characterized in health and disease in an open, searchable, online kidney tissue atlas. All data from the Kidney Precision Medicine Project will be made readily available for broad use by scientists, clinicians, and patients.

Pericardial Fat and the Risk of Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Obesity is a well-established risk factor for heart failure (HF). However, implications of pericardial fat on incident HF is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to examine the association between pericardial fat volume (PFV) and newly diagnosed HF.

METHODS

This study ascertained PFV using cardiac computed tomography in 6,785 participants (3,584 women and 3,201 men) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate PFV as continuous and dichotomous variable, maximizing the J-statistic: (Sensitivity + Specificity - 1).

RESULTS

In 90,686 person-years (median: 15.7 years; interquartile range: 11.7 to 16.5 years), 385 participants (5.7%; 164 women and 221 men) developed newly diagnosed HF. PFV was lower in women than in men (69 ± 33 cm3 vs. 92 ± 47 cm3; p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, every 1-SD (42 cm3) increase in PFV was associated with a higher risk of HF in women (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21 to 1.71; p < 0.001) than in men (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.27; p = 0.03) (interaction p = 0.01). High PFV (≥70 cm3 in women; ≥120 cm3 in men) conferred a 2-fold greater risk of HF in women (HR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.48 to 2.87; p < 0.001) and a 53% higher risk in men (HR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.07; p = 0.006). In sex-stratified analyses, greater risk of HF remained robust with additional adjustment for anthropometric indicators of obesity (p ≤ 0.008), abdominal subcutaneous or visceral fat (p ≤ 0.03) or biomarkers of inflammation and hemodynamic stress (p < 0.001) and was similar among Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and Chinese (interaction p = 0.24). Elevated PFV predominantly augmented the risk of HF with preserved ejection fraction (p < 0.001) rather than reduced ejection fraction (p = 0.31).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large, community-based, ethnically diverse, prospective cohort study, pericardial fat was associated with an increased risk of HF, particularly HF with preserved ejection fraction, in women and men.

Sleep apnea, coronary artery calcium density and cardiovascular events: results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Evaluate the association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), coronary artery calcium (CAC) density, and cardiovascular events in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

METHODS

We analyzed 1041 participants with non-zero CAC scores who had polysomnography and CAC density data from the fifth examination of MESA. OSA was defined as apnea-hypopnea index [AHI] ≥ 15 events/hour. Multivariable linear regression models were used to evaluate the independent association between OSA and CAC density. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of OSA on associations of CAC measures with incident CVD events by testing for interaction in Cox proportional hazard regression models.

RESULTS

Our analytical sample was 45% female with a mean age of 70.6 +/- 9 years. Of this sample, 36.7% (n=383/1041) had OSA (AHI≥15). OSA was inversely and weakly associated with CAC density (β= -0.09, 95% CI -0.17 to -0.02, p=0.014) and remained significantly associated after controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (β= -0.08, 95% CI -0.16 to 0, p=0.043). However, this inverse association was attenuated after controlling for BMI (β=-0.05, 95% CI -0.13 to 0.02, p=0.174). The mean follow-up period for CVD events was 13.3 +/- 2.8 years. Additionally, exploratory analysis demonstrated that CAC density was independently and inversely associated with CVD events only in the non-OSA subgroup (AHI≤15) (HR 0.509 [CI 0.323 - 0.801], p=0.0035).

CONCLUSIONS

OSA was associated with lower CAC density, but this association was attenuated by BMI. Further, increased CAC density was associated with a reduced risk of CVD events only in individuals within the non-OSA group in exploratory analysis.

Semi-parametric Estimation of Biomarker Age Trends with Endogenous Medication Use in Longitudinal Data

In cohort studies, non-random medication use can pose barriers to estimation of the natural history trend in a mean biomarker value-namely, the association between a predictor of interest and a biomarker outcome that would be observed in the total absence of biomarker-specific treatment. Common causes of treatment and outcomes are often unmeasured, obscuring our ability to easily account for medication use with assumptions commonly invoked in causal inference such as conditional ignorability. Further, without a high degree of confidence in the availability of a variable satisfying the exclusion restriction, use of instrumental variable approaches may be difficult to justify. Heckman's hybrid model with structural shift (sometimes referred to less specifically as the treatment effects model) can be used to correct endogeneity bias via a homogeneity assumption (i.e., that average treatment effects do not vary across covariates) and parametric specification of a joint model for the outcome and treatment. In recent work, we relaxed the homogeneity assumption by allowing observed covariates to serve as treatment effect modifiers. While this method has been shown to be reasonably robust in settings of cross-sectional data, application of this methodology to settings of longitudinal data remains unexplored. We demonstrate how the assumptions of the treatment effects model can be extended to accommodate clustered data arising from longitudinal studies. Our proposed approach is semi-parametric in nature in that valid inference can be obtained without the need to specify any component of the longitudinal correlation structure. As an illustrative example, we use data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis to evaluate trends in low-density lipoprotein by age and gender. Results from a collection of simulation studies, as well as our illustrative example, confirm that our generalization of the treatment effects model can serve as a useful tool to uncover natural history trends in longitudinal data that are obscured by endogenous treatment.

Egg consumption, overall diet quality, and risk of type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease: A pooling project of US prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Data on the relation of egg consumption with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary heart disease (CHD) are limited and inconsistent. Few studies have controlled for overall dietary patterns in egg-T2D or egg-CHD analyses, and it is unclear whether any observed elevated risks of T2D and CHD with frequent egg consumption is real or due to confounding by dietary habits. We tested the hypothesis that frequent egg consumption is associated with a higher risk of T2D and CHD risk after adjustment for overall dietary patterns among adults.

DESIGN

We used prospective cohort design to complete time-to-event analyses.

METHODS

We pooled de novo, harmonized, individual-level analyses from nine US cohorts (n = 103,811). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios separately in each cohort adjusting for age, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), exercise, smoking, alcohol intake, and dietary patterns. We pooled cohort-specific results using an inverse-variance weighted method to estimate summary relative risks.

RESULTS

Median age ranged from 25 to 72 years. Median egg consumption was 1 egg per week in most of the cohorts. While egg consumption up to one per week was not associated with T2D risk, consumption of ≥2 eggs per week was associated with elevated risk [27% elevated risk of T2D comparing 7+ eggs/week with none (95% CI: 16%-37%)]. There was little evidence for heterogeneity across cohorts and we observed similar conclusions when stratified by BMI. Overall, egg consumption was not associated with the risk of CHD. However, in a sensitivity analysis, there was a 30% higher risk of CHD (95% CI: 3%-56%) restricted to older adults consuming 5-6 eggs/week.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data showed an elevated risk of T2D with egg consumption of ≥2 eggs per week but not with <2 eggs/week. While there was no overall association of egg consumption with CHD risk, the elevated CHD observed with consumption of 5-6 eggs/week in older cohorts merits further investigation.

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis individual response to vitamin D trial: Building a randomized clinical trial into an observational cohort study

The INdividual response to VITamin D (INVITe) trial was a randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel group trial of vitamin D3 supplementation (2000 IU daily) designed to determine clinical and genetic characteristics that modify the response to vitamin D supplementation. To enhance internal and external validity and reduce cost, the INVITe trial was nested within the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), an ongoing prospective observational cohort study. The INVITe trial enrolled a community-based population of 666 racially and ethnically diverse participants from January 2017 to April 2019. This represents 30% of 2210 MESA participants approached for screening, and 96% of those found to be eligible. Barriers to enrollment included delayed initiation of the trial relative to scheduled MESA study visits, a lower number of available MESA participants than expected, and a high prevalence (18%) of high-dose vitamin D supplementation (>1000 IU daily, an exclusion criterion). The final study visit was attended by 611 participants (92%), and median adherence was 98%. Our experience suggests that integration of a randomized trial into an existing observational cohort study may leverage strengths of the source population and enhance enrollment, retention, and adherence, although with limited enrollment capacity. The INVITe trial will use rigorously-collected data to advance understanding of individual determinants of vitamin D response.