Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy and Survival Following Hospitalization in Patients with Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Modification of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) in hospitalized patients with heart failure (HF) has not been extensively evaluated.

METHODS

The community surveillance arm of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study identified 6959 HF hospitalizations from 2005-2011. Predictors of GDMT modification and survival were assessed using multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

For 5091 hospitalizations, patient mean age was 75 years, 53% were female, 69% were white, and 81% had acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Regarding ejection fraction (EF), 31% of patients had HF with reduced EF (HFrEF), 24% had HF with preserved EF (HFpEF), and 44% were missing EF values. At admission, 52% of patients received angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEIs/ARBs), 66% β-blockers (BBs), 9% aldosterone-receptor antagonists, 16% digoxin, 10% hydralazine, and 29% nitrates. Modification of GDMT occurred in up to 23% of hospitalizations. Significant predictors of GDMT initiation included ADHF and HFrEF; discontinuation of medications was observed with select comorbidities. In HFrEF, initiation of any GDMT was associated with reduced 1-year all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-0.71) as was initiation of ACEI/ARBs, BBs, and digoxin. Discontinuation of any therapy versus maintaining GDMT was associated with greater mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.66). Similar trends were observed in HFpEF.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that GDMT initiation is associated with increased survival, and discontinuation of therapy is associated with reduced survival in hospitalized patients with HF. Future studies should be conducted to confirm the impact of GDMT therapy modification in this population.

Do Live Discharge Rates Increase as Hospices Approach Their Medicare Aggregate Payment Caps?

CONTEXT

The rate of live discharge from hospice and the proportion of hospices exceeding their aggregate caps have both increased for the last 15 years, becoming a source of federal scrutiny. The cap restricts aggregate payments hospices receive from Medicare during a 12-month period. The risk of repayment and the manner in which the cap is calculated may incentivize hospices coming close to their cap ceilings to discharge existing patients before the end of the cap year.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this work was to explore annual cap-risk trends and live discharge patterns. We hypothesized that as a hospice comes closer to exceeding its cap, a patient's likelihood of being discharged alive increases.

METHODS

We analyzed monthly hospice outcomes using 2012-2013 Medicare claims.

RESULTS

Adjusted analyses showed a positive and statistically significant relationship between cap risk and live discharges.

CONCLUSION

Policymakers ought to consider the unintended consequences the aggregate cap may be having on patient outcomes of care.

Position matters: Validation of medicare hospital claims for myocardial infarction against medical record review in the atherosclerosis risk in communities study

PURPOSE

The objectives of this study were to investigate sensitivity and specificity of myocardial infarction (MI) case definitions using multiple discharge code positions and multiple diagnosis codes when comparing administrative data to hospital surveillance data.

METHODS

Hospital surveillance data for ARIC Study cohort participants with matching participant ID and service dates to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) hospitalization records for hospitalizations occurring between 2001 and 2013 were included in this study. Classification of Definite or Probable MI from ARIC medical record review defined "gold standard" comparison for validation measures. In primary analyses, an MI was defined with ICD9 code 410 from CMS records. Secondary analyses defined MI using code 410 in combination with additional codes.

RESULTS

A total of 25 549 hospitalization records met study criteria. In primary analysis, specificity was at least 0.98 for all CMS definitions by discharge code position. Sensitivity ranged from 0.48 for primary position only to 0.63 when definition included any discharge code position. The sensitivity of definitions including codes 410 and 411.1 were higher than sensitivity observed when using code 410 alone. Specificity of these alternate definitions was higher for women (0.98) than for men (0.96).

CONCLUSION

Algorithms that rely exclusively on primary discharge code position will miss approximately 50% of all MI cases due to low sensitivity of this definition. We recommend defining MI by code 410 in any of first 5 discharge code positions overall and by codes 410 and 411.1 in any of first 3 positions for sensitivity analyses of women.

Antihypertensive adherence and outcomes among community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

Despite proven benefits for reducing incidence of major cardiac events, antihypertensive drug therapy remains underutilized in the United States. This analysis assesses antihypertensive drug adherence, utilization predictors, and associations between adherence and outcomes (a composite of cardiovascular events, Medicare inpatient payments, and inpatient days).

METHODS

The sample consisted of Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study cohort participants reporting hypertension without prevalent cardiovascular disease during 2006 to 2007 annual follow-up calls. Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities records were linked to Medicare claims through 2012. Antihypertensive medication adherence was measured as more than 80% proportion days covered by using Medicare Part D claims. Standard and hierarchical regression models were used to evaluate adjusted associations between person characteristics and adherence and between adherence and outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 1826 hypertensive participants with Part D coverage, 31.5% had no antihypertensive class with more than 80% proportion days covered in the 3 months preceding the report of hypertension in 2006 to 2007. After adjustment for confounders, positive predictors of use included female gender and diabetes; negative predictors were African-American race and current smoking. Adjusted association between receiving no therapy and a composite endpoint of cardiovascular outcomes through 2012 was not statistically significant (hazard ratio: 0.93; 95% confidence interval: 0.72, 1.22) nor was the adjusted association with Medicare inpatient days or payments (incremental difference at 48 months in payments: $1217; 95% CI: -$2030, $4463).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite having medical and prescription coverage, nearly a third of hypertensive participants were not adherent to antihypertensive drug therapy. Differences in clinical outcomes associated with nonadherence, though not statistically significant, were consistent with results from randomized trials. The approach provides a model framework for rigorous assessment of detailed data that are increasingly available through emerging sources.

Impact of Accountable Care Organizations on Utilization, Care, and Outcomes: A Systematic Review

Since 2010, more than 900 accountable care organizations (ACOs) have formed payment contracts with public and private insurers in the United States; however, there has not been a systematic evaluation of the evidence studying impacts of ACOs on care and outcomes across payer types. This review evaluates the quality of evidence regarding the association of public and private ACOs with health service use, processes, and outcomes of care. The 42 articles identified studied ACO contracts with Medicare ( N = 24 articles), Medicaid ( N = 5), commercial ( N = 11), and all payers ( N = 2). The most consistent associations between ACO implementation and outcomes across payer types were reduced inpatient use, reduced emergency department visits, and improved measures of preventive care and chronic disease management. The seven studies evaluating patient experience or clinical outcomes of care showed no evidence that ACOs worsen outcomes of care; however, the impact on patient care and outcomes should continue to be monitored.

Contribution of medications and risk factors to QTc interval lengthening in the atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

Prolongation of the corrected QT (QTc) interval is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The association between QTc interval-prolonging medications (QTPMs) and risk factors with magnitude of QTc interval lengthening is unknown. We examined the contribution of risk factors alone and in combination with QTPMs to QTc interval lengthening.

METHOD

The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study assessed 15 792 participants with a resting, standard 12-lead electrocardiogram and ≥1 measure of QTc interval over 4 examinations at 3-year intervals (1987-1998). From 54 638 person-visits, we excluded participants with QRS ≥ 120 milliseconds (n = 2333 person-visits). We corrected the QT interval using the Bazett and Framingham formulas. We examined QTc lengthening using linear regression for 36 602 person-visit observations for 14 160 cohort members controlling for age ≥ 65 years, female sex, left ventricular hypertrophy, QTc > 500 milliseconds at the prior visit, and CredibleMeds categorized QTPMs (Known, Possible, or Conditional risk). We corrected standard errors for repeat observations per person.

RESULTS

Eighty percent of person-visits had at least one risk factor for QTc lengthening. Use of QTPMs increased over the 4 visits from 8% to 17%. Among persons not using QTPMs, history of prolonged QTc interval and female sex were associated with the greatest QTc lengthening, 39 and 12 milliseconds, respectively. In the absence of risk factors, Known QTPMs and ≥2 QTPMs were associated with modest but greater QTc lengthening than Possible or Conditional QTPMs. In the presence of risk factors, ≥2 QTPM further increased QTc lengthening. In combination with risk factors, the association of all QTPM categories with QTc lengthening was greater than QTPMs alone.

CONCLUSION

Risk factors, particularly female sex and history of prolonged QTc interval, have stronger associations with QTc interval lengthening than any QTPM category alone. All QTPM categories augmented QTc interval lengthening associated with risk factors.

Mind the Gap: Hospitalizations from Multiple Sources in a Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

Medicare claims and prospective studies with self-reported utilization are important sources of hospitalization data for epidemiologic and outcomes research.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the concordance of Medicare claims merged with interview-based surveillance data to determine factors associated with source completeness.

METHODS

The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study recruited 15,792 cohort participants aged 45 to 64 years in the period 1987 to 1989 from four communities. Hospitalization records obtained through cohort report and hospital record abstraction were matched to Medicare inpatient records (MedPAR) from 2006 to 2011. Factors associated with concordance were assessed graphically and using multinomial logit regression.

RESULTS

Among fee-for-service enrollees, MedPAR and ARIC hospitalizations matched approximately 67% of the time. For Medicare Advantage enrollees, completeness increased after initiation of hospital financial incentives in 2008 to submit shadow bills for Medicare Advantage enrollees. Concordance varied by geographic site, age, veteran status, proximity to death, study attrition, and whether hospitalizations were within ARIC catchment areas.

CONCLUSIONS

ARIC and MedPAR records had good concordance among fee-for-service enrollees, but many hospitalizations were available from only one source. MedPAR hospital records may be missing for veterans or observation stays. Maintaining study participation increases stay completeness, but new sources such as electronic health records may be more efficient than surveillance for mobile elderly populations.

Factors Driving Live Discharge From Hospice: Provider Perspectives

CONTEXT

The proportion of patients disenrolling from hospice before death has increased over the decade with significant variations across hospice types and regions. Such trends have raised concerns about live disenrollment's effect on care quality. Live disenrollment may be driven by factors other than patient preference and may create discontinuities in care, disrupting ongoing patient-provider relationships. Researchers have not explored when and how providers make this decision with patients.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to ascertain provider perspectives on key drivers of live discharge from the Medicare hospice program.

METHODS

We conducted semistructured telephone interviews with 18 individuals representing 14 hospice providers across the country. Transcriptions were coded and analyzed using a template analysis approach.

RESULTS

Analysis generated four themes: 1) difficulty estimating patient prognosis, 2) fear of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services audits, 3) rising market competition, and 4) challenges with inpatient contracting. Participants emphasized challenges underlying each decision to discharge patients alive, stressing that there often exists a gray line between appropriate and inappropriate discharges. Discussions also focused on scenarios in which financial motivations drive enrollment and disenrollment practices.

CONCLUSION

This study provides significant contributions to existing knowledge about hospice enrollment and disenrollment patterns. Results suggest that live discharge patterns are often susceptible to market and regulatory forces, which may have contributed to the rising national rate.

A Comparison of Self-reported Medication Adherence to Concordance Between Part D Claims and Medication Possession

OBJECTIVE

Medicare Part D claims indicate medication purchased, but people who are not fully adherent may extend prescription use beyond the interval prescribed. This study assessed concordance between Part D claims and medication possession at a study visit in relation to self-reported medication adherence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We matched Part D claims for 6 common medications to medications brought to a study visit in 2011-2013 for the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. The combined data consisted of 3027 medication events (claims, medications possessed, or both) for 2099 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants. Multinomial logistic regression estimated the association of concordance (visit only, Part D only, or both) with self-reported medication adherence while controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, veteran status, and availability under Generic Drug Discount Programs.

RESULTS

Relative to participants with high adherence, medication events for participants with low adherence were approximately 25 percentage points less likely to match and more likely to be visit only (P<0.001). The results were similar but smaller in magnitude (approximately 2-3 percentage points) for participants with medium adherence. Compared with females, medication events for male veterans were approximately 11 percentage points less likely to match and more likely to be visit only. Events for medications available through Generic Drug Discount Programs were 3 percentage points more likely to be visit only.

CONCLUSIONS

Part D claims were substantially less likely to be concordant with medications possessed at study visit for participants with low self-reported adherence. This result supports the construction of adherence proxies such as proportion days covered using Part D claims.

Predictors of Medication Adherence in the Elderly: The Role of Mental Health

The aging population routinely has comorbid conditions requiring complicated medication regimens, yet nonadherence can preclude optimal outcomes. This study explored the association of adherence in the elderly with demographic, socioeconomic, and disease burden measures. Data were from the fifth visit (2011-2013) for 6,538 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, conducted in four communities. The Morisky-Green-Levine Scale measured self-reported adherence. Forty percent of respondents indicated some nonadherence, primarily due to poor memory. Logit regression showed, surprisingly, that persons with low reading ability were more likely to report being adherent. Better self-reported physical or mental health both predicted better adherence, but the magnitude of the association was greater for mental than for physical health. Compared with persons with normal or severely impaired cognition, mild cognitive impairment was associated with lower adherence. Attention to mental health measures in clinical settings could provide opportunities for improving medication adherence.

Psychometric Properties of the Four-Item Morisky Green Levine Medication Adherence Scale among Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Participants

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the reliability and factorial validity of the four-item Morisky Green Levine Medication Adherence Scale (MGLS) among Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants.

METHODS

We used the cross-sectional visit 5 data from the ARIC Study to assess the measurement properties of the MGLS. We measured the internal consistency using Cronbach α (where α > 0.70 is considered reliable for group-level measurement), the response frequency, and the inter item correlation. Factor analysis of the MGLS and five other adherence items in the survey was conducted using a polychoric correlation matrix to examine the dimensionality that underlies the MGLS. A vanishing tetrad test was conducted to assess conformity with an effect indicator model.

RESULTS

Among the ARIC visit 5 participants, 6,261 (96%) responded to the MGLS and other questions related to medication adherence in the survey (mean age 76 ± 5 years, 59% women). The Cronbach α for the MGLS was 0.47. The inter-item correlations ranged from 0.11 to 0.26. In the factor analysis of the medication adherence survey questions, a three-factor solution was used. One factor captured the extent of nonadherence, whereas other factors focused on the reasons for nonadherence. The MGLS items spread out across the factors that reflect the extent of as well as the reasons for nonadherence. The results of the vanishing tetrad test indicated that the MGLS consists of items other than effect indicators (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The low reliability together with the factor analysis findings imply that the MGLS may reflect causes as well as the extent of medication adherence. The findings suggest that the MGLS, as presently used, lacks consistency in an elderly population.

Are Trends in Hospitalization Prior to Hospice Use Associated With Hospice Episode Characteristics?

This study expands current knowledge of factors associated with initiation of hospice care by examining prehospice patterns of medical care leading to Medicare hospice use and the relationships to hospice episode characteristics. Data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study cohort offer the ability to control for measures that are not available in Medicare claims data, including marital status, nursing home residency, and education. For 1248 ARIC participants who used hospice (2006-2012), participant level trends in the number of hospital days per 30-day period over the year prior to hospice initiation were generated using a fixed-effects model. Logistic regression was used to estimate the associations between increasing hospital use over the year prior to hospice enrollment with key patient characteristics (diagnosis, age, and comorbidity) and episode characteristics (short hospice stay ending in death, long hospice stay, and live discharge). Participants with severe comorbidity (measured as a Charlson comorbidity index score greater than 5) had higher odds of increasing hospital use prior to hospice (odds ratio [OR] = 3.28, confidence interval [CI] = 2.25-4.78). Increasing hospital use did not vary by diagnosis but was associated with reduced odds of a live hospice discharge (OR = 0.55, CI = 0.34-0.88) or long stay in hospice (OR = 0.44, CI = 0.24-0.79) and increased odds of a short stay in hospice (OR = 1.92, CI = 1.36-2.71). The evidence that care patterns prior to hospice use are associated with hospice outcomes could facilitate development of interventions to improve timely hospice referral.

Personal Care Aide Turnover in Residential Care Settings: An Assessment of Ownership, Economic, and Environmental Factors

Turnover among personal care aides is a chronic problem facing long-term-care industries. High turnover leads to high recruitment and training costs and to the potential for substandard care. Studies in nursing homes have found environmental factors to be more important than economic factors in predicting turnover rates, but no studies have been done in an assisted living setting or have considered the effects of the physical environment and location of the facility. This study assesses the importance of a variety of factors on turnover among personal care aides, using a two-part model. The results show that certain ownership and environmental factors (facility type, chain ownership, and attractiveness of the neighborhood)are important predictors of turnover. Although adequate economic compensation is undoubtedly important in attracting and retaining qualified staff, the results identify facility characteristics that may indicate a greater level of turnover as well as greater potential for improvement through interventions to reduce turnover.

Diabetes and Prediabetes and Risk of Hospitalization: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the magnitude and types of hospitalizations among persons with prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 13,522 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (mean age 57 years, 56% female, 24% black, 18% with prediabetes, 4% with undiagnosed diabetes, 9% with diagnosed diabetes) with follow-up in 1990-2011 for hospitalizations. Participants were categorized by diabetes/HbA1c status: without diagnosed diabetes, HbA1c <5.7% (reference); prediabetes, 5.7 to <6.5%; undiagnosed diabetes, ≥6.5%; and diagnosed diabetes, <7.0 and ≥7.0%.

RESULTS

Demographic adjusted rates per 1,000 person-years of all-cause hospitalizations were higher with increasing diabetes/HbA1c category (Ptrend < 0.001). Persons with diagnosed diabetes and HbA1c ≥7.0% had the highest rates of hospitalization (3.1 times higher than those without a history of diagnosed diabetes, HbA1c <5.7%, and 1.5 times higher than those with diagnosed diabetes, HbA1c <7.0%, P < 0.001 for both comparisons). Persons with undiagnosed diabetes had 1.6 times higher rates of hospitalization and those with prediabetes had 1.3 times higher rates of hospitalization than those without diabetes and HbA1c <5.7% (P < 0.001 for both comparisons). Rates of hospitalization by diabetes/HbA1c category were different by race (Pinteraction = 0.011) and by sex (Pinteraction = 0.020). There were significantly excess rates of hospitalizations due to cardiovascular, endocrine, respiratory, gastrointestinal, iatrogenic/injury, neoplasm, genitourinary, neurologic, and infection causes among those with diagnosed diabetes compared with those without a history of diagnosed diabetes (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with diagnosed diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and prediabetes are at a significantly elevated risk of hospitalization compared with those without diabetes. Substantial excess rates of hospitalizations in persons with diagnosed diabetes were for endocrine, infection, and iatrogenic/injury causes, which may be preventable with improved diabetes care.

Identification of Heart Failure Events in Medicare Claims: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

We examined the accuracy of Medicare heart failure (HF) diagnostic codes in the identification of acute decompensated (ADHF and chronic stable (CSHF) HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Hospitalizations were identified from medical discharge records for Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants with linked Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) files for the years 2005-2009. The ARIC study classification of ADHF and CSHF, based on adjudicated review of medical records, was considered to be the criterion standard. A total 8,239 ARIC medical records and MedPAR records meeting fee-for-service (FFS) criteria matched on unique participant ID and date of discharge (68.5% match). Agreement between HF diagnostic codes from the 2 data sources found in the matched records for codes in any position (κ > 0.9) was attenuated for primary diagnostic codes (κ < 0.8). Sensitivity of HF diagnostic codes found in Medicare claims in the identification of ADHF and CSHF was low, especially for the primary diagnostic codes.

CONCLUSION

Matching of hospitalizations from Medicare claims with those obtained from abstracted medical records is incomplete, even for hospitalizations meeting FFS criteria. Within matched records, HF diagnostic codes from Medicare show excellent agreement with HF diagnostic codes obtained from medical record abstraction. The Medicare data may, however, overestimate the occurrence of hospitalized ADHF or CSHF.

Hospice Use, Hospitalization, and Medicare Spending at the End of Life

OBJECTIVES

Prior studies associate hospice use with reduced hospitalization and spending at the end of life based on all Medicare hospice beneficiaries. In this study, we examine the impact of different lengths of hospice care and nursing home residency on hospital use and spending prior to death across 5 disease groups.

METHODS

We compared inpatient hospital days and Medicare spending during the last 6 months of life using hospice versus propensity matched non-hospice beneficiaries who died in 2010, were enrolled in fee for service Medicare throughout the last 2 years of life, and were in at least 1 of 5 disease groups. Comparisons were based on length of hospice use and whether the decedent was in a nursing home during the seventh month prior to death. We regressed a categorical measure of hospice days on outcomes, controlling for observed patient characteristics.

RESULTS

Hospice use over 2 weeks was associated with decreased hospital days (1-5 days overall, with greater decreases for longer hospice use) for all beneficiaries; spending was $900-$5,000 less for hospice use of 31-90 days for most beneficiaries not in nursing homes, except beneficiaries with Alzheimer's. Overall spending decreased with hospice use for beneficiaries in nursing homes with lung cancer only, with a $3,500 reduction.

DISCUSSION

The Medicare hospice benefit is associated with reduced hospital care at the end of life and reduced Medicare expenditures for most enrollees. Policies that encourage timely initiation of hospice and discourage extremely short stays could increase these successes while maintaining program goals.

Medication Adherence Based on Part D Claims for Patients With Heart Failure After Hospitalization (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study)

Medication nonadherence is a common precipitant of heart failure (HF) hospitalization and is associated with poor outcomes. Recent analyses of national data focus on long-term medication adherence. Little is known about adherence of patients with HF immediately after hospitalization. Hospitalized patients with HF were identified from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities data were linked to Medicare inpatient and part D claims from 2006 to 2009. Inclusion criteria were a chart-adjudicated diagnosis of acute decompensated or chronic HF; documentation of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (ACEI/ARB), β blocker (BB), or diuretic prescription at discharge; and Medicare part D coverage. Proportion of ambulatory days covered was calculated for up to twelve 30-day periods after discharge. Adherence was defined as ≥80% proportion of ambulatory days covered. We identified 402 participants with Medicare part D: mean age 75, 30% men, and 41% black. Adherence at 1, 3, and 12 months was 70%, 61%, and 53% for ACEI/ARB; 76%, 66%, and 62% for BB; and 75%, 68%, and 59% for diuretic. Adherence to any single drug class was positively correlated with being adherent to other classes. Adherence varied by geographic site/race for ACEI/ARB and BB but not diuretics. In conclusion, despite having part D coverage, medication adherence after discharge for all 3 medication classes decreases over 2 to 4 months after discharge, followed by a plateau over the subsequent year. Interventions should focus on early and sustained adherence.

Abstract 141: Predictors of the Utilization of QT Interval Lengthening Medications in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Objective: Prolongation of corrected QT interval (QTc) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We examined the predictors of the use of QTc prolonging medications (QTPM).

Methods: We included 15,792 ARIC participants with a resting, standard 12-lead electrocardiogram and ≥ 1 measure of QTc over up to four triennial examinations between 1987 and 1998 (54,638 person-visits). Participants with missing data were excluded (n=1,668). To optimize clinical applicability, QTc was calculated using Bazett’s equation. At each visit, we identified participants using ≥ 1 CredibleMeds classified QTPMs, age > 65 years, females, and those with LVH, or QTc > 500 ms at the prior visit. We used linear regression (random and fixed effects models) for 37,233 person-visit observations from visits 2-4 to determine predictors of the use of QTPMs. The following known risk factors and potential predictors for QTc lengthening were assessed: age, female sex, LVH, and QTc at the prior visit. Standard errors were corrected for repeat observations per person. Additional risk factors will be assessed in future analyses.

Results: Among person-visit observations from Visit 2-4 (mean age 59.7, 55% female, 9% LVH, mean QTc 431), 16% (n= 5,153) of participants were using one or more QTPM. Preliminary results suggest three of the four identified risk factors predicted use of QTPMs: age, sex, and QTc at prior visit. Prolonged QTc at prior visit was associated with a lower probability of using QTPM. In contrast, use of QTPMs was positively associated with a joint effect of age and female sex. The latter is concerning given older females are at increased risk for QTc prolongation.

Conclusions: In this preliminary analysis, several predictors of QTPM use emerged. Future analyses will include additional predictors and assessment of outcome will adjust for these predictors.

Abstract 118: Discharge Medications, Hospice Use and 30 Day Outcomes for Hospitalized Heart Failure Patients

Purpose: Identifying factors associated with poor 30 day outcomes following hospital discharge for heart failure patients is important for improving quality of care. Discharge on appropriate medications is a critical factor to improve outcomes. Analyses generally have not differentiated discharge medication recommendations based on prognosis such as referral to hospice after discharge.

Methods: Hospitalized Medicare patients with an adjudicated acute HF diagnosis during 2006-2011 were identified from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study of a biracial cohort of 15,792 participants from 4 US communities since 1987. Logistic regression was used to explore two questions: 1) whether using hospice within 30 days of discharge was associated with being discharged on at least one of three medications [ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEI/ARB), beta-blockers (BB), or diuretics]; and 2) how inclusion of patients likely close to death affected associations of discharge medications (separately or in combination) with hospital readmission or death within 30 days. Hospitalizations for participants who used hospice and died within 30 days following discharge were excluded for the analysis of readmission or death. All regressions controlled for patient demographic and clinical characteristics.

Results: The study sample included 780 participants (mean age 76, 45% male, 35% black) with 1457 hospital discharges; within 30 days, 24% of discharges were readmitted and 5% died. Hospice was used within 30 days for 105 discharges (7.4%). Using hospice was strongly associated with not being discharged on at least one medication (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.11,0.46). Forty discharges used hospice and died within 30 days but only 26 had complete data. Excluding these cases, regression with complete data for 1240 hospitalizations (684 patients) showed that thirty day readmission or death was lower (p<0.05) for patients discharged on ACEI/ARB (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.53,0.95) or diuretics (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.48,0.91) but not for BB. A regression assessing the joint effect of discharge on all three drugs had the strongest reduction (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41,0.76); including hospice users who died within 30 days without readmission showed only a slightly stronger effect (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.39,0.72), possibly due to the addition of only 26 stays. Other predictors positively associated with readmission or death included race/site, atrial fibrillation, stroke, and longer hospital stay; hospice was weakly associated with a lower likelihood.

Conclusions: As heart failure progresses, transfer to palliative or hospice services is often appropriate. Including patients when death is imminent in outcome analyses could overestimate medication effects. Mechanisms for identifying such patients other than hospice use are limited but constitute an important goal for future research.

The relationship between violence in Northern Mexico and potentially avoidable hospitalizations in the USA-Mexico border region

BACKGROUND

Substantial proportions of US residents in the USA-Mexico border region cross into Mexico for health care; increases in violence in northern Mexico may have affected this access. We quantified associations between violence in Mexico and decreases in access to care for border county residents. We also examined associations between border county residence and access.

METHODS

We used hospital inpatient data for Arizona, California and Texas (2005-10) to estimate associations between homicide rates and the probability of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions. Hospitalizations for ACS conditions were compared with homicide rates in Mexican municipalities matched by patient residence.

RESULTS

A 1 SD increase in the homicide rate of the nearest Mexican municipality was associated with a 2.2 percentage point increase in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition for border county patients. Residence in a border county was associated with a 1.3 percentage point decrease in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased homicide rates in Mexico were associated with increased hospitalizations for ACS conditions in the USA, although residence in a border county was associated with decreased probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Expanding access in the border region may mitigate these effects by providing alternative sources of care.

Informal care and caregiver's health

This study aims to measure the causal effect of informal caregiving on the health and health care use of women who are caregivers, using instrumental variables. We use data from South Korea, where daughters and daughters-in-law are the prevalent source of caregivers for frail elderly parents and parents-in-law. A key insight of our instrumental variable approach is that having a parent-in-law with functional limitations increases the probability of providing informal care to that parent-in-law, but a parent-in-law's functional limitation does not directly affect the daughter-in-law's health. We compare results for the daughter-in-law and daughter samples to check the assumption of the excludability of the instruments for the daughter sample. Our results show that providing informal care has significant adverse effects along multiple dimensions of health for daughter-in-law and daughter caregivers in South Korea.

Examining continuity of care for Medicaid-enrolled children receiving oral health services in medical offices

Children living in poverty encounter barriers to dentist visits and disproportionally experience dental caries. To improve access, most state Medicaid programs reimburse pediatric primary care providers for delivering preventive oral health services. To understand continuity of oral health services for children utilizing the North Carolina (NC) Into the Mouths of Babes (IMB) preventive oral health program, we examined the time to a dentist visit after a child's third birthday. This retrospective cohort study used NC Medicaid claims from 2000 to 2006 for 95,578 Medicaid-enrolled children who received oral health services before age 3. We compared children having only dentist visits before age 3 to those with: (1) only IMB visits and (2) both IMB and dentist visits. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the time to a dentist visit following a child's third birthday. Propensity scores with inverse-probability-of-treatment-weights were used to address confounding. Children with only IMB visits compared to only dentist visits before age 3 had lower rates of dentist visits after their third birthday [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 0.41, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.39-0.43]. No difference was observed for children having both IMB and dentist visits and only dentist visits (AHR = 0.99, 95 % CI 0.96-1.03). Barriers to dental care remain as children age, hindering continuity of care for children receiving oral health services in medical offices.

Anger proneness, gender, and the risk of heart failure

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the association of anger proneness with incidence of heart failure is lacking.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Anger proneness was ascertained among 13,171 black and white participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study cohort with the use of the Spielberger Trait Anger Scale. Incident heart failure events, defined as occurrence of ICD-9-CM code 428.x, were ascertained from participants' medical records during follow-up in the years 1990-2010. Relative hazard of heart failure across categories of trait anger was estimated with the use of Cox proportional hazard models. Study participants (mean age 56.9 [SD 5.7] years) experienced 1,985 incident HF events during 18.5 (SD 4.9) years of follow-up. Incidence of HF was greater among those with high, as compared to those with low or moderate trait anger, with higher incidence observed for men than for women. The relative hazard of incident HF was modestly high among those with high trait anger, compared with those with low or moderate trait anger (age-adjusted hazard ratio for men: 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.69). Adjustment for comorbidities and depressive symptoms attenuated the estimated age-adjusted relative hazard in men to 1.26 (95% CI 1.00-1.60).

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of anger proneness may be necessary in successful prevention and clinical management of heart failure, especially in men.