Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approved by Carleton University's Research Ethics Board-B (clearance ID: 114596). Results will be made available through future publication.

Entropy in the Molecular Recognition of Membrane Protein-Lipid Interactions

Understanding the molecular driving forces that underlie membrane protein-lipid interactions requires the characterization of their binding thermodynamics. Here, we employ variable-temperature native mass spectrometry to determine the thermodynamics of lipid binding events to the human G-protein-gated inward rectifier potassium channel, Kir3.2. The channel displays distinct thermodynamic strategies to engage phosphatidylinositol (PI) and phosphorylated forms thereof. The addition of a 4'-phosphate to PI results in an increase in favorable entropy. PI with two or more phosphates exhibits more complex binding, where lipids appear to bind two nonidentical sites on Kir3.2. Remarkably, the interaction of 4,5-bisphosphate PI with Kir3.2 is solely driven by a large, favorable change in entropy. Installment of a 3'-phosphate to PI(4,5)P₂ results in an altered thermodynamic strategy. The acyl chain of the lipid has a marked impact on binding thermodynamics and, in some cases, enthalpy becomes favorable.

Investigating molecular mechanisms of insecticide resistance in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

Malaria vector control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is plagued by several major challenges, including inadequate infrastructure, lack of access to health care systems and preventative measures, and more recently the widespread emergence of insecticide resistance among Anopheles mosquitoes. Across 26 provinces, insecticide resistance has been reported from multiple sentinel sites. However, to date, investigation of molecular resistance mechanisms among Anopheles vector populations in DRC has been more limited.

METHODS

Adult Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) and Anopheles funestus s.l. were collected from two sites in Sud-Kivu province and one site in Haut-Uélé province and PCR-screened for the presence of 11 resistance mutations, to provide additional information on frequency of resistance mechanisms in the eastern DRC, and to critically evaluate the utility of these markers for prospective country-wide resistance monitoring.

RESULTS

L1014F-kdr and L1014S-kdr were present in 75.9% and 56.7% of An. gambiae s.l. screened, respectively, with some individuals harbouring both resistant alleles. Across the three study sites, L43F-CYP4J5 allele frequency ranged from 0.42 to 0.52, with evidence for ongoing selection. G119S-ace1 was also identified in all sites but at lower levels. A triple mutant haplotype (comprising the point mutation CYP6P4-I236M, the insertion of a partial Zanzibar-like transposable element and duplication of CYP6AA1) was present at high frequencies. In An. funestus s.l. cis-regulatory polymorphisms in CYP6P9a and CYP6P9b were detected, with allele frequencies ranging from 0.82 to 0.98 and 0.65 to 0.83, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study screened the most up-to-date panel of DNA-based resistance markers in An. gambiae s.l. and An. funestus s.l. from the eastern DRC, where resistance data is lacking. Several new candidate markers (CYP4J5, G119S-ace1, the triple mutant, CYP6P9a and CYP6P9b) were identified, which are diagnostic of resistance to major insecticide classes, and warrant future, larger-scale monitoring in the DRC to inform vector control decisions by the National Malaria Control Programme.

Observation of Feshbach resonances between a single ion and ultracold atoms

The control of physical systems and their dynamics on the level of individual quanta underpins both fundamental science and quantum technologies. Trapped atomic and molecular systems, neutral¹ and charged², are at the forefront of quantum science. Their extraordinary level of control is evidenced by numerous applications in quantum information processing^3,4 and quantum metrology^5,6. Studies of the long-range interactions between these systems when combined in a hybrid atom-ion trap^7,8 have led to landmark results^9-19. However, reaching the ultracold regime-where quantum mechanics dominates the interaction, for example, giving access to controllable scattering resonances^20,21-has so far been elusive. Here we demonstrate Feshbach resonances between ions and atoms, using magnetically tunable interactions between ¹³⁸Ba⁺ ions and ⁶Li atoms. We tune the experimental parameters to probe different interaction processes-first, enhancing three-body reactions^22,23 and the related losses to identify the resonances and then making two-body interactions dominant to investigate the ion's sympathetic cooling¹⁹ in the ultracold atomic bath. Our results provide deeper insights into atom-ion interactions, giving access to complex many-body systems^24-27 and applications in experimental quantum simulation^28-30.

Anopheles stephensi Mosquitoes as Vectors of Plasmodium vivax and falciparum, Horn of Africa, 2019

Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes, efficient vectors in parts of Asia and Africa, were found in 75.3% of water sources surveyed and contributed to 80.9% of wild-caught Anopheles mosquitoes in Awash Sebat Kilo, Ethiopia. High susceptibility of these mosquitoes to Plasmodium falciparum and vivax infection presents a challenge for malaria control in the Horn of Africa.

Stable high-density and maternally inherited Wolbachia infections in Anopheles moucheti and Anopheles demeilloni mosquitoes

Wolbachia, a widespread bacterium that can reduce pathogen transmission in mosquitoes, has recently been reported to be present in Anopheles (An.) species. In wild populations of the An. gambiae complex, the primary vectors of Plasmodium malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa, Wolbachia DNA sequences at low density and infection frequencies have been detected. As the majority of studies have used highly sensitive nested PCR as the only method of detection, more robust evidence is required to determine whether Wolbachia strains are established as endosymbionts in Anopheles species. Here, we describe high-density Wolbachia infections in geographically diverse populations of An. moucheti and An. demeilloni. Fluorescent in situ hybridization localized a heavy infection in the ovaries of An. moucheti, and maternal transmission was observed. Genome sequencing of both Wolbachia strains obtained genome depths and coverages comparable to those of other known infections. Notably, homologs of cytoplasmic incompatibility factor (cif) genes were present, indicating that these strains possess the capacity to induce the cytoplasmic incompatibility phenotype, which allows Wolbachia to spread through host populations. These strains should be further investigated as candidates for use in Wolbachia biocontrol strategies in Anopheles aiming to reduce the transmission of malaria.

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High-density Wolbachia strains found in An. moucheti and An. demeilloni mosquitoes

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Infections are visualized in the ovaries, and maternal transmission was observed

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Sequencing at depths and coverages comparable to other known Wolbachia strains

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Homologs of cytoplasmic incompatibility factor genes are present in both genomes

Evidence for natural hybridization and novel Wolbachia strain superinfections in the Anopheles gambiae complex from Guinea

Wolbachia, a widespread bacterium which can influence mosquito-borne pathogen transmission, has recently been detected within Anopheles (An.) species that are malaria vectors in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although studies have reported Wolbachia strains in the An. gambiae complex, apparent low density and prevalence rates require confirmation. In this study, wild Anopheles mosquitoes collected from two regions of Guinea were investigated. In contrast with previous studies, RNA was extracted from adult females (n = 516) to increase the chances for the detection of actively expressed Wolbachia genes, determine Wolbachia prevalence rates and estimate relative strain densities. Molecular confirmation of mosquito species and Wolbachia multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were carried out to analyse phylogenetic relationships of mosquito hosts and newly discovered Wolbachia strains. Strains were detected in An. melas (prevalence rate of 11.6%-16/138) and hybrids between An. melas and An. gambiae sensu stricto (prevalence rate of 40.0%-6/15) from Senguelen in the Maferinyah region. Furthermore, a novel high-density strain, termed wAnsX, was found in an unclassified Anopheles species. The discovery of novel Wolbachia strains (particularly in members, and hybrids, of the An. gambiae complex) provides further candidate strains that could be used for future Wolbachia-based malaria biocontrol strategies.

Understanding umbilical venous catheter insertion practices through a prospective multicenter observational study

OBJECTIVE

To understand practices of umbilical venous catheter (UVC) insertion in tertiary level neonatal intensive care units (NICU) and investigate the outcomes of subsequent attempts following a failed initial attempt.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective, multi-center observational study of UVC insertions at tertiary level NICUs between March 2019 and January 2020.

RESULTS

Of the 101 UVCs inserted at 4 centers, seventy-two (71%) were central at the first attempt and 50% were central at subsequent attempts. Patients with at least 1 failed attempt at insertion were less likely to have a centrally placed UVC (p = .009). Manipulations were less likely to be required when UVC was centrally placed during the first attempt. Maneuvers such as posterior liver mobilization used during insertion were likely to be associated with successful central placement of UVC (p = .0243). The time to complete the procedure was significantly less when the UVC was central at the first attempt (34.2 ± 20.2 vs 46.9 ± 33.8) (p = .0292). Gestational age, birth weight, and age of the baby at the insertion of the UVC, experience of the provider, and type of catheter were comparable among groups. The Shukla formula was most commonly used by providers to measure the depth of UVC placement.

CONCLUSION

Repetitive attempts and manipulations were less likely to be beneficial in the successful central placement of UVC in neonates. Additionally, repetitive attempts at insertion prolonged the overall duration of the procedure.

Detection of Cell-Fusing Agent virus across ecologically diverse populations of Aedes aegypti on the Caribbean island of Saint Lucia

Background. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV), yellow fever virus (YFV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) have recently occurred in the Caribbean. The geographical range of the principal vectors responsible for transmission, Aedes (Ae.) aegypti and Ae. albopictus are increasing and greater mosquito surveillance is needed in the Caribbean given international tourism is so prominent. The island of Saint Lucia has seen outbreaks of DENV and CHIKV in the past five years but vector surveillance has been limited with the last studies dating back to the late 1970s. Natural disasters have changed the landscape of Saint Lucia and the island has gone through significant urbanisation. Methods. In this study, we conducted an entomological survey of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distribution across the island and analysed environmental parameters associated with the presence of these species in addition to screening for medically important arboviruses and other flaviviruses. Results. Although we collected Ae. aegypti across a range of sites across the island, no Ae. albopictus were collected despite traps being placed in diverse ecological settings. The number of Ae. aegypti collected was significantly associated with higher elevation, and semi-urban settings yielded female mosquito counts per trap-day that were five-fold lower than urban settings. Screening for arboviruses revealed a high prevalence of cell-fusing agent virus (CFAV). Conclusions. Outbreaks of arboviruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have a history of occurring in small tropical islands and Saint Lucia is particularly vulnerable given the limited resources available to undertake vector control and manage outbreaks. Surveillance strategies can identify risk areas for predicting future outbreaks. Further research is needed to determine the diversity of current mosquito species, investigate insect-specific viruses, as well as pathogenic arboviruses, and this should also be extended to the neighbouring smaller Caribbean islands.

Reduced long-lasting insecticidal net efficacy and pyrethroid insecticide resistance are associated with over-expression of CYP6P4, CYP6P3 and CYP6Z1 in populations of Anopheles coluzzii from South-East Côte d'Ivoire

Background

Resistance to major public health insecticides in Côte d’Ivoire has intensified and now threatens the long-term effectiveness of malaria vector control interventions.

Methods

This study evaluated the bioefficacy of conventional and next-generation long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), determined resistance profiles, and characterized molecular and metabolic mechanisms in wild Anopheles coluzzii from Southeast Côte d’Ivoire in 2019.

Results

Phenotypic resistance was intense: >25% of mosquitoes survived exposure to 10 times the doses of pyrethroids required to kill susceptible populations. Similarly, the 24-hour mortality rate with deltamethrin-only LLINs was very low and not significantly different from that with an untreated net. Sublethal pyrethroid exposure did not induce significant delayed vector mortality effects 72 hours later. In contrast, LLINs containing the synergist piperonyl butoxide, or new insecticides clothianidin and chlorfenapyr, were highly toxic to A. coluzzii. Pyrethroid-susceptible A. coluzzii were significantly more likely to be infected with malaria, compared with those that survived insecticidal exposure. Pyrethroid resistance was associated with significant overexpression of CYP6P4, CYP6P3, and CYP6Z1.

Conclusions

Study findings raise concerns regarding the operational failure of standard LLINs and support the urgent deployment of vector control interventions incorporating piperonyl butoxide, chlorfenapyr, or clothianidin in areas of high resistance intensity in Côte d’Ivoire.

A Feasibility Study of Non-Invasive Continuous Estimation of Brachial Pressure Derived From Arterial and Venous Lines During Dialysis

Objective: Intradialytic haemodynamic instability is a significant clinical problem, leading to end-organ ischaemia and contributing to morbidity and mortality in haemodialysis patients. Non-invasive continuous blood pressure monitoring is not currently part of routine practice but may aid detection and prevention of significant falls in blood pressure during dialysis. Brachial blood pressure is currently recorded intermittently during haemodialysis via a sphygmomanometer. Current methods of continuous non-invasive blood pressure monitoring tend to restrict movement, can be sensitive to external disturbances and patient movement, and can be uncomfortable for the wearer. Additionally, poor patient blood circulation can lead to unreliable measurements. In this feasibility study we performed an initial validation of a novel method and associated technology to continuously estimate blood pressure using pressure sensors in the extra-corporeal dialysis circuit, which does not require any direct contact with the person receiving dialysis treatment. Method: The paper describes the development of the measurement system and subsequent in vivo patient feasibility study with concurrent measurement validation by Finapres Nova physiological measurement device. Real-time physiological data is collected over the entire period of (typically 4-hour) dialysis treatment. Results: We identify a quasi-linear mathematical function to describe the relationship between arterial line pressure and brachial artery BP, which is confirmed in a patient study. The results from this observational study suggest that it is feasible to derive a continuous measurement of brachial pressure from continuous measurements of arterial and venous line pressures via an empirically based and updated mathematical model. Conclusion: The methodology presented requires no interfacing to proprietary dialysis machine systems, no sensors to be attached to the patient directly, and is robust to patient movement during treatment and also to the effects of the cyclical pressure waveforms induced by the hemodialysis peristaltic blood pump. This represents a key enabling factor to the development of a practical continuous blood pressure monitoring device for dialysis patients.

Gastric injury secondary to button battery ingestions: a retrospective multicenter review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Removal of gastric button batteries (BBs) remains controversial. Our aim was to better define the spectrum of injury and to characterize clinical factors associated with injury from retained gastric BBs.

METHODS

In this multicenter retrospective cohort study from January 2014 through May 2018, pediatric gastroenterologists from 4 pediatric tertiary care centers identified patients, aged 0 to 18 years, who had a retained gastric BB on radiography and subsequently underwent endoscopic assessment. Demographic and clinical information were abstracted from electronic health records using a standard data collection form.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight patients with a median age of 2.5 years underwent endoscopic retrieval of a gastric BB. At presentation, 17 (25%) were symptomatic. Duration from ingestion to endoscopic removal was known for 65 patients (median, 9 hours [interquartile range, 5-19]). Median time from ingestion to first radiographic evaluation was 2 hours. At endoscopic removal, 60% of cases had visual evidence of mucosal damage, which correlated with duration of BB retention (P = .0018). Time to retrieval of the BB was not statistically significant between symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects (P = .12). After adjusting for age and symptoms, the likelihood of visualizing gastric damage among patients who had BBs removed 12 hours post ingestion was 4.5 times that compared with those with BB removal within 12 hours of ingestion.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, swallowed BBs posed a risk of damage to the stomach, including a single case of impaction and perforation of the gastric wall. Clinicians may want to consider retrieval within 12 hours of ingestion of gastric BBs. Larger prospective studies to assess risk of injury are needed.

Detection of a novel insect-specific flavivirus across ecologically diverse populations of Aedes aegypti on the Caribbean island of Saint Lucia

Background. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV), yellow fever virus (YFV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) have recently occurred in the Caribbean. The geographical range of the principle vectors responsible for transmission, Aedes (Ae.) aegypti and Ae. albopictus is increasing and greater mosquito surveillance is needed in the Caribbean given international tourism is so prominent. The island of Saint Lucia has seen outbreaks of DENV and CHIKV in the past five years but vector surveillance has been limited with the last studies dating back to the late 1970s. Natural disasters have changed the landscape of Saint Lucia and the island has gone through significant urbanisation. Methods. In this study, we conducted an entomological survey of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distribution across the island and analysed environmental parameters associated with the presence of these species in addition to screening for medically important arboviruses and other flaviviruses. Results. Although we collected Ae. aegypti across a range of sites across the island, no Ae. albopictus were collected despite traps being placed in diverse ecological settings. The number of Ae. aegypti collected was significantly associated with higher elevation, and semi-urban settings yielded female mosquito counts per trap-day that were five-fold lower than urban settings. Screening for arboviruses revealed a high prevalence of a novel insect-specific flavivirus closely related to cell fusing agent virus (CFAV). Conclusions. Outbreaks of arboviruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have a history of occurring in small tropical islands and Saint Lucia is particularly vulnerable given the limited resources available to undertake vector control and manage outbreaks. Surveillance strategies can identify risk areas for predicting future outbreaks and further research is needed to determine the diversity of current mosquito species and this should be extended to the neighbouring smaller Caribbean islands.

Heart Retransplantation for Coronary Allograft Vasculopathy in Children: 25 Years of Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND

Pediatric end-stage heart disease is surgically managed by heart transplantation. A major complication of primary transplantation (PTx) is coronary allograft vasculopathy (CAV), a form of accelerated atherosclerosis. Retransplantation (RTx) has been the management of CAV; however, there is limited comprehensive literature on this subject. Here we report 25 years of single-center experience in managing CAV with RTx and place it in the context of recent studies.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was undertaken on patients who underwent PTx <18 years old and subsequent RTx due to CAV at the Heart Institute (InCor) University of São Paulo Medical School between 1992 and 2018. The maintenance immunosuppression protocol was double immunosuppression. For both PTx and RTx, quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted for transplantation indication, donor/recipient demographics, post-transplant survival, rejection, infection, and immunosuppression.

RESULTS

Between 1992 and 2018, 200 children underwent heart transplantation. Ten re-transplantations were performed, for which 7 (70%) were for CAV. Ages at RTx ranged from 11.5 to 29.3 years (19.1 ± 5.68 years; median 18.2 years). The mean time between PTx and RTx was 12.9 ± 3.4 years (median 13.4 years). The Kaplan-Meier survival rate at 1 month, 3 years, and 5 years was 85.7%, 71.5%, and 47.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Cardiac RTx can be a management option for CAV in patients who have undergone PTx in childhood with double immunosuppression therapy.

An assessment of adult mosquito collection techniques for studying species abundance and diversity in Maferinyah, Guinea

Background

Several mosquito collection methods are routinely used in vector control programmes. However, they target different behaviours causing bias in estimation of species diversity and abundance. Given the paucity of mosquito trap data in West Africa, we compared the performance of five trap-lure combinations and Human Landing Catches (HLCs) in Guinea.

Methods

CDC light traps (LT), BG sentinel 2 traps (BG2T), gravid traps (GT) and Stealth traps (ST) were compared in a 5 × 5 Latin Square design in three villages in Guinea between June and July 2018. The ST, a portable trap which performs similarly to a LT but incorporates LEDs and incandescent light, was included since it has not been widely tested. BG2T were used with BG and MB5 lures instead of CO₂ to test the efficacy of these attractants. HLCs were performed for 5 nights, but not as part of the Latin Square. A Generalised Linear Mixed Model was applied to compare the effect of the traps, sites and collection times on mosquito abundance. Species identification was confirmed using PCR-based analysis and Sanger sequencing.

Results

A total of 10,610 mosquitoes were captured across five traps. ST collected significantly more mosquitoes (7096) than the rest of the traps, but resulted in a higher number of damaged specimens. ST and BG2T collected the highest numbers of Anopheles gambiae (s.l.) and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, respectively. HLCs captured predominantly An. coluzzii (41%) and hybrids of An. gambiae and An. coluzzii (36%) in contrast to the five traps, which captured predominantly An. melas (83%). The rural site (Senguelen) presented the highest abundance of mosquitoes and overall diversity in comparison with Fandie (semi-rural) and Maferinyah Centre I (semi-urban). Our results confirm the presence of four species for the first time in Guinea.

Conclusions

ST collected the highest number of mosquitoes suggesting this trap may play an important role for mosquito surveillance in Guinea and similar sites in West Africa. We recommend the incorporation of molecular tools in entomological studies since they have helped to identify 25 mosquito species in this area.

The experience of using synthetic cannabinoids: A qualitative analysis of online user self-reports

Introduction

The number of novel psychoactive substances (NPS) available is increasing. Synthetic cannabinoids (SC) are one of many NPS sold. SC aim to emulate the effects of natural cannabis by acting on cannabinoid receptors. Despite much research into pharmacology, there is limited data on the user experience of SC.

Aim

It is useful for psychiatrists, to understand what experiences people have whilst on illicit substances. The aim of this qualitative study is to gain an initial understanding of what characterizes the experiences of those who use SC.

Method

Fourty anonymously written online reports were collected from the “Erowid experience vaults” and analysed using the Empirical Phenomenological Psychological Method.

Results

The analysis yielded 488 meaning units (MU). These were grouped into 36 categories revealing 5 broad themes: (1) physical affects; (2) sensory distortions and distortions of perception; (3) emotional and psychological effects; (4) re-dosing, addiction and comedown effects; (5) similarities to other substances.

Conclusion

Synthetic cannabinoids have a mixed effect on users with a myriad of experiences reported. Some experienced positive results from their usage such as euphoria and relaxation, however these were counter balanced by those who experienced some serious negative emotional and physical side effects such as anxiety, paranoia, palpitations and convulsions. SC appear to often emulate that of their natural counterpart, yet there is an unpredictability to them which can end with serious consequences. Online forum content gives us a strong base understanding of users experiences of SC. Further research is required to elucidate a more nuanced understanding.

Disclosure of interest

The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

X-ray phase imaging with the unified modulated pattern analysis of near-field speckles at a laboratory source

X-ray phase-contrast techniques are powerful methods for discerning features with similar densities, which are normally indistinguishable with conventional absorption contrast. While these techniques are well-established tools at large-scale synchrotron facilities, efforts have increasingly focused on implementations at laboratory sources for widespread use. X-ray speckle-based imaging is one of the phase-contrast techniques with high potential for translation to conventional x-ray systems. It yields phase-contrast, transmission, and dark-field images with high sensitivity using a relatively simple and cost-effective setup tolerant to divergent and polychromatic beams. Recently, we have introduced the unified modulated pattern analysis (UMPA) [Phys. Rev. Lett.118, 203903 (2017)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.118.203903], which further simplifies the translation of x-ray speckle-based imaging to low-brilliance sources. Here, we present the proof-of-principle implementation of UMPA speckle-based imaging at a microfocus liquid-metal-jet x-ray laboratory source.

Evidence of extrinsic factors dominating intrinsic blood host preferences of major African malaria vectors

One of the key determinants of a haematophagous vector’s capacity to transmit pathogens is its selection of which host to secure a blood meal from. This choice is influenced by both intrinsic (genetic) and extrinsic (environmental) factors, but little is known of their relative contributions. Blood fed Anopheles mosquitoes were collected from a malaria endemic village in Ghana. Collections were conducted across a range of different host availabilities and from both indoor and outdoor locations. These environmental factors were shown to impact dramatically the host choice of caught malaria vectors: mosquitoes caught indoors were ten-fold more likely to have sourced their blood meal from humans; and a halving in odds of being human-fed was found for mosquitoes caught only 25 m from the centre of the village. For the first time, we demonstrate that anthropophagy was better explained by extrinsic factors (namely, local host availability and indoor/outdoor trapping location) than intrinsic factors (namely, the (sibling) species of the mosquito caught) (respective Akaike information criterion estimates: 243.0 versus 359.8). Instead of characterizing biting behaviour on a taxonomic level, we illustrate the importance of assessing local entomology. Accounting for this behavioural plasticity is important, both in terms of measuring effectiveness of control programmes and in informing optimal disease control strategies.

Cross-sectional study of the prevalence, causes and management of hospital-onset diarrhoea

BACKGROUND

The National Health Service in England advises hospitals collect data on hospital-onset diarrhoea (HOD). Contemporaneous data on HOD are lacking.

AIM

To investigate prevalence, aetiology and management of HOD on medical, surgical and elderly-care wards.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study in a volunteer sample of UK hospitals, which collected data on one winter and one summer day in 2016. Patients admitted ≥72 h were screened for HOD (definition: ≥2 episodes of Bristol Stool Type 5-7 the day before the study, with diarrhoea onset >48 h after admission). Data on HOD aetiology and management were collected prospectively.

FINDINGS

Data were collected on 141 wards in 32 hospitals (16 acute, 16 teaching). Point-prevalence of HOD was 4.5% (230/5142 patients; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9-5.0%). Teaching hospital HOD prevalence (5.9%, 95% CI 5.1-6.9%) was twice that of acute hospitals (2.8%, 95% CI 2.1-3.5%; odds ratio 2.2, 95% CI 1.7-3.0). At least one potential cause was identified in 222/230 patients (97%): 107 (47%) had a relevant underlying condition, 125 (54%) were taking antimicrobials, and 195 (85%) other medication known to cause diarrhoea. Nine of 75 tested patients were Clostridium difficile toxin positive (4%). Eighty (35%) patients had a documented medical assessment of diarrhoea. Documentation of HOD in medical notes correlated with testing for C. difficile (78% of those tested vs 38% not tested, P<0.001). One-hundred and forty-four (63%) patients were not isolated following diarrhoea onset.

CONCLUSION

HOD is a prevalent symptom affecting thousands of patients across the UK health system each day. Most patients had multiple potential causes of HOD, mainly iatrogenic, but only a third had medical assessment. Most were not tested for C. difficile and were not isolated.