Impact of age structure and vaccine prioritization on COVID-19 in West Africa

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been a major global health challenge since its emergence in 2019. Contrary to early predictions that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) would bear a disproportionate share of the burden of COVID-19 due to the region's vulnerability to other infectious diseases, weak healthcare systems, and socioeconomic conditions, the pandemic's effects in SSA have been very mild in comparison to other regions. Interestingly, the number of cases, hospitalizations, and disease-induced deaths in SSA remain low, despite the loose implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the low availability and administration of vaccines. Possible explanations for this low burden include epidemiological disparities, under-reporting (due to limited testing), climatic factors, population structure, and government policy initiatives. In this study, we formulate a model framework consisting of a basic model (in which only susceptible individuals are vaccinated), a vaccine-structured model, and a hybrid vaccine-age-structured model to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 in West Africa (WA). The framework is trained with a portion of the confirmed daily COVID-19 case data for 16 West African countries, validated with the remaining portion of the data, and used to (i) assess the effect of age structure on the incidence of COVID-19 in WA, (ii) evaluate the impact of vaccination and vaccine prioritization based on age brackets on the burden of COVID-19 in the sub-region, and (iii) explore plausible reasons for the low burden of COVID-19 in WA compared to other parts of the world. Calibration of the model parameters and global sensitivity analysis show that asymptomatic youths are the primary drivers of the pandemic in WA. Also, the basic and control reproduction numbers of the hybrid vaccine-age-structured model are smaller than those of the other two models indicating that the disease burden is overestimated in the models which do not account for age-structure. This result is confirmed through the vaccine-derived herd immunity thresholds. In particular, a comprehensive analysis of the basic (vaccine-structured) model reveals that if 84%(73%) of the West African populace is fully immunized with the vaccines authorized for use in WA, vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved. This herd immunity threshold is lower (68%) for the hybrid model. Also, all three thresholds are lower (60% for the basic model, 51% for the vaccine-structured model, and 48% for the hybrid model) if vaccines of higher efficacies (e.g., the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine) are prioritized, and higher if vaccines of lower efficacy are prioritized. Simulations of the models show that controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in WA (by reducing transmission) requires a proactive approach, including prioritizing vaccination of more youths or vaccination of more youths and elderly simultaneously. Moreover, complementing vaccination with a higher level of mask compliance will improve the prospects of containing the pandemic. Additionally, simulations of the model predict another COVID-19 wave (with a smaller peak size compared to the Omicron wave) by mid-July 2022. Furthermore, the emergence of a more transmissible variant or easing the existing measures that are effective in reducing transmission will result in more devastating COVID-19 waves in the future. To conclude, accounting for age-structure is important in understanding why the burden of COVID-19 has been low in WA and sustaining the current vaccination level, complemented with the WHO recommended NPIs is critical in curbing the spread of the disease in WA.

On the management of population immunity

This paper considers a susceptible-infected-recovered type model of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 or swine flu, in which costly treatment or vaccination confers immunity on recovered individuals. Once immune, individuals indirectly protect the remaining susceptibles, who benefit from a measure of herd immunity. Treatment and vaccination directly induce such herd immunity, which builds up over time. Optimal treatment is shown to involve intervention at early stages of the epidemic, while optimal vaccination may defer intervention to intermediate stages. Thus, while treatment and vaccination have superficial similarities, their effects and desirability at different stages of the epidemic are different. Equilibrium vaccination is qualitatively similar to socially optimal vaccination, while equilibrium treatment differs in nature from socially optimal treatment. The optimal policies are compared to traditional non-economic public health interventions which rely on herd immunity thresholds.

The citizen preferences-positive externality trade-off: A survey study of COVID-19 vaccine deployment in Japan

Objective

Medicine is a scarce resource and a public good that benefits others by bettering patients’ health. COVID-19 vaccines in shortage are, 1) a scarce resource and 2) a public good with the positive externality of building herd immunity. These features are expected to drive citizens’ attitudes in opposite directions, exclusionist and inclusionist, respectively. Scarcity would drive citizens’ exclusionism, while the positive externality might mitigate exclusionism.

Setting and design

We recruited 15,000 Japanese adults and asked them to rank, in the context of a COVID-19 vaccine shortage, the deservingness of hypothetical vaccine recipients who differed according to 1) citizenship status, 2) visa type and duration of stay (if foreign), 3) occupation, 4) age, 5) whether they lived with a child, and 6) whether they lived with an elderly individual. Citizenship options were Japanese, Chinese, Taiwanese, South Korean, American, or European. The occupations were healthcare, education, other employed, self-employed, or not employed. The 6 attributes were randomly combined, and respondents were shown 3 hypothetical vaccine recipients: one was Japanese, and the others were foreigners.

Treatments

First, through a conjoint design, we created hypothetical vaccine recipients whose attributes were randomized except for the benchmark citizenship, Japanese national. Second, we randomly presented two scenarios for vaccination payments: 1) billed at cost or 2) fully subsidized by the government.

Results

1) Whether the vaccines were billed at cost or fully subsidized did not affect the rankings of deservingness. 2) Japanese citizenship was prioritized. 3) The penalty for being a foreigner was higher for individuals from nations with which Japan has geopolitical tensions. 4) Working in health or education reduced the penalty on foreigners, indicating that the positive externality related to occupation amplifies the positive externality associated with vaccination and mitigates exclusionist attitudes.

Conclusions

The positive occupational externalities that amplify the positive externality of vaccination substantially allay the foreigner penalty.

Observed protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection following a primary infection: A Danish cohort study among unvaccinated using two years of nationwide PCR-test data

Background

The level of protection after a SARS-CoV-2 infection against reinfection and COVID-19 disease remains important with much of the world still unvaccinated.

Methods

Analysing nationwide, individually referable, Danish register data including RT-PCR-test results, we conducted a cohort study using Cox regression to compare SARS-CoV-2 infection rates before and after a primary infection among still unvaccinated individuals, adjusting for sex, age, comorbidity and residency region. Estimates of protection against infection were calculated as 1 minus the hazard ratio. Estimates of protection against symptomatic infections and infections leading to hospitalisation were also calculated. The prevalence of infections classified as symptomatic or asymptomatic was compared for primary infections and reinfections. The study also assessed protection against each of the main viral variants after a primary infection with an earlier variant by restricting follow-up time to distinct, mutually exclusive periods during which each variant dominated.

Findings

Until 1 July 2021 the estimated protection against reinfection was 83.4% (95%CI: 82.2-84.6%); but lower for the 65+ year-olds (72.2%; 95%CI: 53.2-81.0%). Moderately higher estimates were found for protection against symptomatic disease, 88.3% overall (95%CI: 85.9-90.3%). First-time cases who reported no symptoms were more likely to experience a reinfection (odds ratio: 1.48; 95%CI: 1.35-1.62). By autumn 2021, when infections were almost exclusively caused by the Delta variant, the estimated protection following a recent first infection was 91.3% (95%CI: 89.7-92.7%) compared to 71.4% (95%CI: 66.9-75.3%) after a first infection over a year earlier. With Omicron, a first infection with an earlier variant in the past 3-6 months gave an estimated 51.0% (95%CI: 50.1-52.0%) protection, whereas a first infection longer than 12 months earlier provided only 19.0% (95%CI: 17.2-20.5%) protection. Protection by an earlier variant-infection against hospitalisation due to a new infection was estimated at: 86.6% (95%CI: 46.3-96.7%) for Alpha, 97.2% (95%CI: 89.0-99.3%) for Delta, and 69.8% (95%CI: 51.5-81.2%) for the Omicron variant.

Interpretation

SARS-CoV-2 infection offered a high level of sustained protection against reinfection, comparable with that offered by vaccines, but decreased with the introduction of new main virus variants; dramatically so when Omicron appeared. Protection was lower among the elderly but appeared more pronounced following symptomatic compared to asymptomatic infections. The level of estimated protection against serious disease was somewhat higher than that against infection and possibly longer lasting. Decreases in protection against reinfection, seemed primarily to be driven by viral evolution.

Funding

None.

A country-specific model of COVID-19 vaccination coverage needed for herd immunity in adult only or population wide vaccination programme

We present a country specific method to calculate the COVID-19 vaccination coverage needed for herd immunity by considering age structure, age group-specific contact patterns, relative infectivity and susceptibility of children to adults, vaccination effectiveness and seroprevalence prior to vaccination. We find that across all six countries, vaccination of adults age 60 and above has little impact on R_eff and this is could be due to the smaller number of contacts between this age group and the rest of the population according to the contact matrices used. If R₀ is above 6, herd immunity by vaccine alone is unattainable for most countries either if vaccination is only available for adults or that vaccine effectiveness is lower at 65% against symptomatic infections. In this situation, additional control measures, booster shots, if they improve protection against infection, or the extension of vaccination to children, are required. For a highly transmissible variant with R₀ up to 8, herd immunity is possible for all countries and for all four scenarios of varying relative infectivity and susceptibility of children compared to adults, if vaccine effectiveness is very high at 95% against symptomatic infections and that high vaccination coverage is achieved for both adults and children. In addition, we show that the effective reproduction number will vary between countries even if the same proportion of the population is vaccinated, depending on the demographics, the contact rates and the previous pre-vaccination seroprevalence in the country. This therefore means that care must be taken in extrapolating population level impacts of certain vaccine coverages from one country to another.

Modelling the Omicron wave in France in early 2022: Balancing herd immunity with protecting the most vulnerable

The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern is driving the COVID pandemic at a pace never seen before. When the threat of overwhelming healthcare systems balances the hope of achieving herd immunity, providing booster shots and vaccinating fragile individuals can still be attempted in France to prevent death and hospitalizations.

R Markdown as a dynamic interface for teaching: Modules from math and biology classrooms

Advancing technologies, including interactive tools, are changing classroom pedagogy across academia. Here, we discuss the R Markdown interface, which allows for the creation of partial or complete interactive classroom modules for courses using the R programming language. R Markdown files mix sections of R code with formatted text, including LaTeX, which are rendered together to form complete reports and documents. These features allow instructors to create classroom modules that guide students through concepts, while providing areas for coding and text response by students. Students can also learn to create their own reports for more independent assignments. After presenting the features and uses of R Markdown to enhance teaching and learning, we present examples of materials from two courses. In a Computational Modeling course for math students, we used R Markdown to guide students through exploring mathematical models to understand the principle of herd immunity. In a Data Visualization and Communication course for biology students, we used R Markdown for teaching the fundamentals of R programming and graphing, and for students to learn to create reproducible data investigations. Through these examples, we demonstrate the benefits of R Markdown as a dynamic teaching and learning tool.

COVID-19 vaccinations in Bhutan - Mix-and-Match to Boosters: An experience

Bhutan - a landlocked least developed country in the Himalayas - vaccinated 94% of its adults with the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine in March-April 2021, 90.2% with second dose in July 2021, and 89.1% with booster (third) dose by March 2022. The country used COVISHIELD (Oxford-Astrazeneca) vaccine for the first dose but decided to pursue a heterologous prime-boost strategy ("mix-and-match") for the second dose using Moderna's mRNA vaccine for adults. Bhutan rapidly rolled out Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for 12 to 17-year-olds through a school-based vaccination strategy followed by booster doses: 78.6% of adolescents aged 12-17 years were vaccinated with the first dose by August 2021, 92.8% with second dose by November 2021, and 79.7% with booster (third) dose by March 2022. More than 97% of children aged 5 to 11 years have received Pfizer's Comirnaty vaccine for their first dose. Bhutan is steadily vaccinating its population and might soon become one of the few least developed countries to achieve herd immunity-level vaccination coverage with more than 80% of its population fully vaccinated.

Listening to vaccine refusers

In bioethics vaccine refusal is often discussed as an instance of free riding on the herd immunity of an infectious disease. However, the social science of vaccine refusal suggests that the reasoning behind refusal to vaccinate more often stems from previous negative experiences in healthcare practice as well as deeply felt distrust of healthcare institutions. Moreover, vaccine refusal often acts like an exit mechanism. Whilst free riding is often met with sanctions, exit, according to Albert Hirschman's theory of exit and voice is most efficiently met by addressing concerns and increasing the quality and number of feedback channels. If the legitimate grievances responsible for vaccine refusal are not heard or addressed by healthcare policy, further polarization of attitudes to vaccines is likely to ensue. Thus, there is a need in the bioethics of vaccine refusal to understand the diverse ethical questions of this inflammable issue in addition to those of individual responsibility to vaccinate.

Optimal levels of vaccination to reduce COVID-19 infected individuals and deaths: A global analysis

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat that is generating a constant state of alert in manifold countries. One of the strategies of defense against infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) is the vaccinations that decrease the numbers of infected individuals and deaths. In this context, the optimal level of vaccination for COVID-19 is a basic point to control this pandemic crisis in society. The study here,-using data of doses of vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, confirmed cases and case fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries (N=192) from March to May 2021,- clarifies the optimal levels of vaccination for reducing the number of infected individuals and, consequently, the numbers of deaths at global level. Findings reveal that the average level of administering about 80 doses of vaccines per 100 inhabitants between countries can sustain a reduction of confirmed cases and number of deaths. In addition, results suggest that an intensive vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave leads to a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants (roughly 47 doses of vaccines administered) for reducing infected individuals; however, the growth of pandemic wave (in May, 2021) moves up the optimal level of vaccines to about 90 doses for reducing the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. All these results here could aid policymakers to prepare optimal strategies directed to a rapid COVID-19 vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, to lessen negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.

Cost-effectiveness of pertussis booster vaccination for preschool children in Japan

INTRODUCTION

Japan currently recommends four doses of the diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine in its routine vaccination program, but the introduction of a fifth dose is currently under consideration. An objective of the booster vaccination is to prevent severe cases of pertussis in infants through herd immunity. Thus, the aim of this analysis was to demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of a fifth-dose of the DTaP vaccine for 6-year-old children, taking herd immunity for unvaccinated infants into account.

METHOD

An economic model analysis was conducted comparing the cost and effectiveness of the two strategies based on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the booster strategy to the no booster strategy. This model contained two sub-models: one for children aged 6 years or older and one for infants under 3 months old. Herd immunity for infants is modeled as when siblings in the same family are infected.

RESULTS

The ICER was JPY 71,605,491 (USD 656,931) per QALY gained from the societal perspective, and 7.10% of incremental QALYs (0.0000934) were from a reduction in infant infection. In the sensitivity analysis, no variables moved the ICER under the threshold (JPY 5,000,000 per QALY gained), and the duration of pertussis disease and the incidence rate of pertussis had a significant impact on the ICER. When the disease burden of pertussis decreased, the booster strategy resulted in fewer QALYs gained and greater costs compared with the no booster strategy.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of a DTaP booster vaccination to the routine immunization schedule can be expected to reduce the number of pertussis cases in the target population. However, our study showed that adding a booster vaccination for 6-year-old children to the schedule in Japan would not be cost-effective in terms of achieving herd immunity among unvaccinated infants.

Reinfection by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in blood donors in Manaus, Brazil

BACKGROUND

The city of Manaus, north Brazil, was stricken by a second epidemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 despite high seroprevalence estimates, coinciding with the emergence of the Gamma (P.1) variant. Reinfections were postulated as a partial explanation for the second surge. However, accurate calculation of reinfection rates is difficult when stringent criteria as two time-separated RT-PCR tests and/or genome sequencing are required. To estimate the proportion of reinfections caused by Gamma during the second wave in Manaus and the protection conferred by previous infection, we identified anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody boosting in repeat blood donors as a mean to infer reinfection.

METHODS

We tested serial blood samples from unvaccinated repeat blood donors in Manaus for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using two assays that display waning in early convalescence, enabling the detection of reinfection-induced boosting. Donors were required to have three or more donations, being at least one during each epidemic wave. We propose a strict serological definition of reinfection (reactivity boosting following waning like a V-shaped curve in both assays or three spaced boostings), probable (two separate boosting events) and possible (reinfection detected by only one assay) reinfections. The serial samples were used to divide donors into six groups defined based on the inferred sequence of infection and reinfection with non-Gamma and Gamma variants.

RESULTS

From 3655 repeat blood donors, 238 met all inclusion criteria, and 223 had enough residual sample volume to perform both serological assays. We found 13.6% (95% CI 7.0-24.5%) of all presumed Gamma infections that were observed in 2021 were reinfections. If we also include cases of probable or possible reinfections, these percentages increase respectively to 22.7% (95% CI 14.3-34.2%) and 39.3% (95% CI 29.5-50.0%). Previous infection conferred a protection against reinfection of 85.3% (95% CI 71.3-92.7%), decreasing to respectively 72.5% (95% CI 54.7-83.6%) and 39.5% (95% CI 14.1-57.8%) if probable and possible reinfections are included.

CONCLUSIONS

Reinfection by Gamma is common and may play a significant role in epidemics where Gamma is prevalent, highlighting the continued threat variants of concern pose even to settings previously hit by substantial epidemics.

Challenges in Establishing Vaccine Induced Herd Immunity through Age Specific Community Vaccinations

Presently, the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic is driving the world towards a devastating total failure of the healthcare system. The purpose of the review is to search for the studies reporting on the implication of herd immunity into a naïve population through age specific mass vaccination. This review is based on selected publications on the effect herd immunity to COVID 19 in communities. We searched published scientific articles, review articles, reports, published in 2020 as well as read some basic, cult publications related to establishment of indirect immunity to a population. We have focused on use of application of vaccine induced herd immunity into community to confer indirect immunity against COVID-19 and searched on electronic databases, including PubMed (http://www.pubmed.com), Scopus (http://www.scopus.com), Google Scholar (http://www.scholar.google.com), Web of Science (www.webofscience.com) and Science Direct by using key words such as Herd immunity, indirect or passive immunization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), severe acute respiratory syndrome, coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and immune-technique. This review proposes the implication of mass vaccination-induced herd immunity in a population to curb the infection, and to every individual in a given population irrespective of their age.

Investigating vaccine-induced immunity and its effect in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in China

BACKGROUND

To allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. Two vaccination programs were tested and model-based estimates of the immunity level in the population were provided.

RESULTS

We found that it is unlikely to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant given the relatively low efficacy of the vaccines used in China throughout 2021 and the lack of prior natural immunity. We estimated that, assuming a vaccine efficacy of 90% against the infection, vaccine-induced herd immunity would require a coverage of 93% or higher of the Chinese population. However, even when vaccine-induced herd immunity is not reached, we estimated that vaccination programs can reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections by 50-62% in case of an all-or-nothing vaccine model and an epidemic starts to unfold on December 1, 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts should be taken to increase population's confidence and willingness to be vaccinated and to develop highly efficacious vaccines for a wide age range.

Reconstructing the transmission dynamics of varicella in Japan: an elevation of age at infection

BACKGROUND

In Japan, routine two-dose immunization against varicella has been conducted among children at ages of 12 and 36 months since 2014, and the vaccination coverage has reached around 90%. To understand the impact of routine varicella vaccination, we reconstructed the epidemiological dynamics of varicella in Japan.

METHODS

Epidemiological and demographic datasets over the past three decades were analyzed to reconstruct the number of susceptible individuals by age and year. To estimate the annual risk of varicella infection, we fitted a balance equation model to the annual number of cases from 1990 to 2019. Using parameter estimates, we reconstructed varicella dynamics starting from 1990 and modeled future dynamics until 2033.

RESULTS

Overall varicella incidence declined over time and the annual risk of infection among children younger than 10 years old decreased monotonically starting in 2014. Conversely, varicella incidence among teenagers (age 10 to 14 years) has increased each year since 2014. A substantial number of unvaccinated individuals born before the routine immunization era remained susceptible and aged without contracting varicella, while the annual risk of infection among teenagers aged 10 to 14 years increased starting in 2011 despite gradual expansion of varicella vaccine coverage. The number of susceptible individuals decreased over time in all age groups. Modeling indicated that susceptibility rates among pre-school children aged 1 to 4 years will remain low.

CONCLUSION

Routine varicella vaccination has successfully reduced infections in pre-school and early primary school age children, but has also resulted in increased infection rates among adolescents. This temporary increase was caused both by the increased age of susceptible individuals and increased transmission risk among adolescents resulting from the dynamic nature of varicella transmission. Monitoring susceptibility among adolescents will be important to prevent outbreaks over the next decade.

Diagnosis failure of bovine leukosis: serology variation during the peripartum period

This study demonstrates the influence of pregnancy on serum diagnosis of enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL), emphasizing the importance of routine testing to maintain herd health. For this, 143 pregnant cows were sampled in duplicate (30 days before and 15 days after calving). For EBL diagnosis, samples were submitted to agar gel immunodiffusion testing (AGID). Different results were observed before and after delivery in seventy-six serum samples (53.15%), indicating variations in the levels of serum globulins in the blood during the peripartum period. Therefore, using a single sample for serological diagnosis during the birth season might not represent the correct infection status of animal health due to physiological variations in antibody concentrations.

Challenges in Engendering Herd Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection: Possibly Impossible but Plausibility with Hope

Herd immunity scaled to the population level is what gives rise to herd immunity. When a sufficiently significant fraction of immune individuals exist in a group, it confers indirect protection from infection to vulnerable individuals. This population-level effect is frequently considered in the context of vaccination programs, which attempt to build herd immunity so that people who cannot be vaccinated, such as the very young or those with impaired immune systems, are nonetheless protected from disease. Clinical signs are a poor predictor of transmissibility for some infections, such as COVID-19, because asymptomatic hosts can be extremely infectious and contribute to the spread of the virus. COVID-19 is a quickly evolving issue that has been widely circulated throughout the world. The concept of herd immunity is frequently stated during this time, although it is readily misconstrued. The concept of herd immunity is frequently stated during this time, although it is readily misconstrued. This article elaborates on the idea and goal of herd immunity, the necessary conditions for realizing herd immunity, the restrictive requirements for applying herd immunity, and the obstacles experienced in achieving herd immunity in the context of COVID-19. This mini article explains the concept and purpose of herd immunization in the context of COVID-19.

Seroprevalence of meningococcal ACWY antibodies across the population in the Netherlands: Two consecutive surveys in 2016/17 and 2020

BACKGROUND

Meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) vaccination was introduced for 14-month-olds in the Netherlands in 2002, alongside a mass campaign for 1-18 year-olds. Due to an outbreak of serogroup W disease, MenC vaccination was replaced for MenACWY vaccination in 2018, next to introduction of a booster at 14 years of age and a catch-up campaign for 14-18 year-olds. We assessed meningococcal ACWY antibodies across the Dutch population in 2016/17 and 2020.

METHODS

In a nationwide cross-sectional serosurvey in 2016/17, sera from participants aged 0-89 years (n = 6886) were tested for MenACWY-polysaccharide-specific (PS) serum IgG concentrations, and functional MenACWY antibody titers were determined in subsets. Moreover, longitudinal samples collected in 2020 (n = 1782) were measured for MenACWY-PS serum IgG concentrations.

RESULTS

MenC antibody levels were low, except in recently vaccinated 14-23 month-olds and individuals who were vaccinated as teenagers in 2002, with seroprevalence of 59% and 20-46%, respectively. Meningococcal AWY antibody levels were overall low both in 2016/17 and in 2020. Naturally-acquired MenW immunity was limited in 2020 despite the recent serogroup W outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates waning of MenC immunity 15 years after a mass campaign in the Netherlands. Furthermore, it highlights the lack of meningococcal AWY immunity across the population and underlines the importance of the recently introduced MenACWY (booster) vaccination.

Brazil's COVID-19 Epicenter in Manaus: How Much of the Population Has Already Been Exposed and Are Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2?

Is Brazil's COVID-19 epicenter really approaching herd immunity? A recent study estimated that in October 2020 three-quarters of the population of Manaus (the capital of the largest state in the Brazilian Amazon) had contact with SARS-CoV-2. We show that 46% of the Manaus population having had contact with SARS-CoV-2 at that time is a more plausible estimate, and that Amazonia is still far from herd immunity. The second wave of COVID-19 is now evident in Manaus. We predict that the pandemic of COVID-19 will continue throughout 2021, given the duration of naturally acquired immunity of only 240 days and the slow pace of vaccination. Manaus has a large percentage of the population that is susceptible (35 to 45% as of May 17, 2021). Against this backdrop, measures to restrict urban mobility and social isolation are still necessary, such as the closure of schools and universities, since the resumption of these activities in 2020 due to the low attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 was the main trigger for the second wave in Manaus.

Estimating vaccination threshold and impact in the 2017-2019 hepatitis A virus outbreak among persons experiencing homelessness or who use drugs in Louisville, Kentucky, United States

BACKGROUND

Between September 2017 and June 2019, an outbreak of hepatitis A virus (HAV) occurred in Louisville, Kentucky, resulting in 501 cases and 6 deaths, predominantly among persons who experience homelessness or who use drugs (PEH/PWUD). The critical vaccination threshold (Vc) required to achieve herd immunity in this population is unknown. We investigated Vc and vaccination impact using epidemic modeling.

METHODS

To determine which population subgroups had high infection risks, we employed a technique based on comparing the proportion of cases arising before and after the epidemic peak, across subgroups. We also developed a dynamic deterministic model of HAV transmission among PEH/PWUD to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), herd immunity threshold, Vc and the effect of timing of the vaccination intervention on epidemic and economic outcomes.

RESULTS

Of the 501 confirmed or probable cases, 385 (76.8%) were among PEH/PWUD. Among PEH/PWUD and within the general population, homelessness was a significant risk factor for infection in the initial stages of the outbreak (odds ratios for homeless versus not homeless: 2.62; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.62-4.25 for PEH/PWUD and 2.39; 95% CI: 1.51-3.78 for all detected cases). Our estimate for R0 ranges between 2.85 and 3.54, corresponding to an estimate of 69% (95% CI: 65-72) for herd immunity threshold and 76% (95% CI: 72%-80%) for Vc, assuming a vaccine with 90% efficacy. The observed vaccination program was estimated to have averted 30 hospitalizations (95% CI: 19-43), associated with over US$490 000 (95% CI: $310 000-700 000) in hospitalization cost. Greater impact was observed with earlier and faster vaccination implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination coverage of at least 77% is likely required to prevent outbreaks of HAV among PEH/PWUD in Louisville, assuming a 90% vaccine efficacy. Proactive hepatitis A vaccination programs among PEH/PWUD will maximize health and economic benefits of these programs and reduce the likelihood of another outbreak.

Can Africa achieve herd immunity?

The World Health Organization described herd immunity, also known as population immunity, as the indirect fortification from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous exposure to infection. The emergence of COVID-19 vaccine is a step towards the achievement of herd immunity. Over one billion people across the globe have been vaccinated and Africa recorded only 2%. The objective of this article was to develop a forecast of the number of people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity in the 13 WHO-identified priority African countries for COVID-19. Herd immunity is achieved when one infected person in a population causes less than one secondary case on average, corresponding to the effective basic reproduction number (R0). Vaccine delivery and distribution infrastructure including the cold chain remains weak. Vaccine hesitancy is also one of the limiting factors that may hinder herd immunity in Africa. In order to achieve herd immunity globally, African countries should not be excluded in fair and equal distribution of vaccines. Relevant stakeholders should foster commitment as well as community sensitization on COVID-19 vaccines and integration of COVID-19 vaccines in existing healthcare services.

Ultrametric diffusion equation on energy landscape to model disease spread in hierarchic socially clustered population

We present a new mathematical model of disease spread reflecting some specialties of the COVID-19 epidemic by elevating the role of hierarchic social clustering of population. The model can be used to explain slower approaching herd immunity, e.g., in Sweden, than it was predicted by a variety of other mathematical models and was expected by epidemiologists; see graphs Fig. 1, 2. The hierarchic structure of social clusters is mathematically modeled with ultrametric spaces having treelike geometry. To simplify mathematics, we consider trees with the constant number p > 1 of branches leaving each vertex. Such trees are endowed with an algebraic structure, these are p -adic number fields. We apply theory of the p -adic diffusion equation to describe a virus spread in hierarchically clustered population. This equation has applications to statistical physics and microbiology for modeling dynamics on energy landscapes. To move from one social cluster (valley) to another, a virus (its carrier) should cross a social barrier between them. The magnitude of a barrier depends on the number of social hierarchy's levels composing this barrier. We consider linearly increasing barriers. A virus spreads rather easily inside a social cluster (say working collective), but jumps to other clusters are constrained by social barriers. This behavior matches with the COVID-19 epidemic, with its cluster spreading structure. Our model differs crucially from the standard mathematical models of spread of disease, such as the SIR-model; in particular, by notion of the probability to be infected (at time t in a social cluster C ). We present socio-medical specialties of the COVID-19 epidemic supporting our model.

Adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine versus quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Hutterite Children: A randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Children play an important role in the transmission of influenza. The best choice of vaccine to achieve both direct and indirect protection is uncertain. The objective of the study was to test whether vaccinating children with MF59 adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV) can reduce influenza in children and their extended households compared to inactivated quadrivalent vaccine (QIV).

METHODS

We conducted a cluster randomized trial in 42 Hutterite colonies in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Colonies were randomized such that children were assigned in a blinded manner to receive aTIV (0.25 ml of pediatric aTIV for ages 6 months to < 36 months or 0.5 ml for ages ≥ 36 months to 6 years) or 0.5 ml of QIV. Participants included 424 children aged 6 months to 6 years who received the study vaccine and 1246 family cluster members who did not receive the study vaccine. The primary outcome was confirmed influenza A and B infection using a real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. An intent to treat analysis was used. Data were collected from January 2017 to June 2019.

RESULTS

The mean percentage of children who received study vaccine was 62% for aTIV colonies and 74% for QIV colonies. There were 66 (3.4%) with RT-PCR confirmed influenza A and B in the aTIV colonies (children and family clusters) versus 93 (4.4%) in the QIV colonies, hazard ratio (HR) 0.78 (95 %CI 0.36-1.71). Of these, 48 (2.5%) in the aTIV colonies and 76 (3.6%) in the QIV colonies had influenza A, HR 0.69, (95 %CI 0.29-1.66) while 18 (0.9%) and 17 (0.8%) in the aTIV versus QIV colonies respectively had influenza B, HR 1.22, (95 %CI 0.20-7.41). In children who received study vaccine, there were 5 Influenza A infections in the aTIV colonies (1.1%) compared to 30 (5.8%) in the QIV colonies, relative efficacy of 80%, HR 0.20, (95 %CI 0.06-0.66). Adverse events were significantly more common among children who received aTIV. No serious vaccine adverse events were reported.

CONCLUSION

Vaccinating children with aTIV compared to QIV resulted in similar community RT-PCR confirmed influenza illness and led to significant protection against influenza A in children.

Nudges for COVID-19 voluntary vaccination: How to explain peer information?

Vaccination promotion is a crucial strategy to end the COVID-19 pandemic; however, individual autonomy should also be respected. This study aimed to discover other-regarding information nudges that can reinforce people's intention to receive the COVID-19 vaccine without impeding their autonomous decision-making. In March 2021, we conducted an online experiment with 1595 people living throughout Japan, and randomly assigned them either of one control group and three treatment groups that received messages differently describing peer information: control, comparison, influence-gain, and influence-loss. We compared each message's effects on vaccination intention, autonomous decision-making, and emotional response. We found that the influence-gain nudge was effective in increasing the number of older adults who newly decided to receive the vaccine. The comparison and influence-loss nudges further reinforced the intention of older adults who had already planned to receive it. However, the influence-loss nudge, which conveys similar information to the influence-gain nudge but with loss-framing, increased viewers' negative emotion. These messages had no promoting effect for young adults with lower vaccination intentions at baseline. Based on the findings, we propose governments should use different messages depending on their purposes and targets, such as comparison instead of influence-loss, to encourage voluntary vaccination behavior.

4CMenB vaccine and its role in preventing transmission and inducing herd immunity

INTRODUCTION

: Vaccination is the most effective method of protecting people from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). Of all the capsular groups, B is the most common cause of invasive meningococcal disease in many parts of the world. Despite this, adolescent meningococcal B vaccine programs have not been implemented globally, partly due to the lack of evidence for herd immunity afforded by meningococcal B vaccines.

AREAS COVERED

This review aims to synthesise the available evidence on recombinant 4CMenB vaccines' ability to reduce pharyngeal carriage and therefore provide indirect (herd) immunity against IMD.

EXPERT OPINION

There is some evidence that the 4CMenB vaccine may induce cross-protection against non-B carriage of meningococci. However, the overall body of evidence does not support a clinically significant reduction in carriage of disease-associated or group B meningococci following 4CMenB vaccination. No additional cost-benefit from herd immunity effects should be included when modelling the cost-effectiveness of 4CMenB vaccine programs against group B IMD. 4CMenB immunisation programs should focus on direct (individual) protection for groups at greatest risk of meningococcal disease.

Future meningococcal B and combination vaccines being developed should consider the impact of the vaccine on carriage as part of their clinical evaluation.