The influence of immune challenges on the mean and variance in reproductive investment: a meta-analysis of the terminal investment hypothesis

Finding the optimal balance between survival and reproduction is a central puzzle in life-history theory. The terminal investment hypothesis predicts that when individuals encounter a survival threat that compromises future reproductive potential, they will increase immediate reproductive investment to maximise fitness. Despite decades of research on the terminal investment hypothesis, findings remain mixed. We examined the terminal investment hypothesis with a meta-analysis of studies that measured reproductive investment of multicellular iteroparous animals after a non-lethal immune challenge. We had two main aims. The first was to investigate whether individuals, on average, increase reproductive investment in response to an immune threat, as predicted by the terminal investment hypothesis. We also examined whether such responses vary adaptively on factors associated with the amount of reproductive opportunities left (residual reproductive value) in the individuals, as predicted by the terminal investment hypothesis. The second was to provide a quantitative test of a novel prediction based on the dynamic threshold model: that an immune threat increases between-individual variance in reproductive investment. Our results provided some support for our hypotheses. Older individuals, who are expected to have lower residual reproductive values, showed stronger mean terminal investment response than younger individuals. In terms of variance, individuals showed a divergence in responses, leading to an increase in variance. This increase in variance was especially amplified in longer-living species, which was consistent with our prediction that individuals in longer-living species should respond with greater individual variation due to increased phenotypic plasticity. We find little statistical evidence of publication bias. Together, our results highlight the need for a more nuanced view on the terminal investment hypothesis and a greater focus on the factors that drive individual responses.

Impacts of ocean acidification and warming on post-larval growth and metabolism in two populations of the great scallop (Pecten maximus L.)

Ocean acidification and warming are key stressors for many marine organisms. Some organisms display physiological acclimatisation or plasticity, but this may vary across species ranges, especially if populations are adapted to local climatic conditions. Understanding how acclimatisation potential varies among populations is therefore important in predicting species responses to climate change. We carried out a common garden experiment to investigate how different populations of the economically important great scallop (Pecten maximus) from France and Norway responded to variation in temperature and pCO2 concentration. After acclimation, post-larval scallops (spat) were reared for 31 days at one of two temperatures (13°C and 19°C) under either ambient or elevated pCO2 (pH 8.0 and pH 7.7). We combined measures of proteomic, metabolic, and phenotypic traits to produce an integrative picture of how physiological plasticity varies between the populations. The proteome of French spat showed significant sensitivity to environmental variation, with 12 metabolic, structural and stress-response proteins responding to temperature and/or pCO2. Principal component analysis revealed seven energy metabolism proteins in French spat that were consistent with countering ROS stress under elevated temperature. Oxygen uptake in French spat did not change under elevated temperature, but increased under elevated pCO2. In contrast, Norwegian spat reduced oxygen uptake under both elevated temperature and pCO2. Metabolic plasticity seemingly allowed French scallops to maintain greater energy availability for growth than Norwegian spat. However, increased physiological plasticity and growth in French spat may come at a cost, as French (but not Norwegian) spat showed reduced survival under elevated temperature.

A Network-DEA model to evaluate the impact of quality and access on hospital performance

The relationship between efficiency, quality, and access in healthcare is far from being well defined. In particular, there is no consensus on whether there is a trade-off between hospital performance and its social dimensions, such as the care appropriateness, safety, and access to proper health care. This study proposes a new approach based on the Network Data Envelopment Analysis (NDEA) to evaluate the existence of potential trade-offs between efficiency, quality, and access. The aim is to contribute for the heated debate around this topic with a novel approach. The suggested methodology combines a NDEA model with the weak disposability of outputs to handle with undesirable outputs related to the poor quality of care or the lack of access to appropriate and safe care. This combination results in a more realistic approach that has not yet been used to investigate this topic. We utilised data of the Portuguese National Health Service from 2016 to 2019, with four models and nineteen variables selected to quantify the efficiency, quality, and access to public hospital care in Portugal. A baseline efficiency score was calculated and compared with the performance scores obtained under two hypothetical scenarios to quantify the impact of each quality/access-related dimension on efficiency. The first scenario considers that each variable, individually, is at its best situation (for example, absence of septicaemia cases), and the second one, at its worst (e.g., all seen inpatients had a septicaemia case). The findings suggest that there might exist meaningful trade-offs between efficiency, quality, and access. Most variables exhibited a considerable and negative impact on the overall hospital efficiency. That is, we may expect a trade-off between efficiency and quality/access.

Impacts of existing and planned hydropower dams on river fragmentation in the Balkan Region

The Balkan region has some of the best conserved rivers in Europe, but is also the location of ~3000 planned hydropower dams that are expected to help decarbonise energy production. A conflict between policies that promote renewable hydropower and those that prioritise river conservation has ensued, which can only be resolved with the help of reliable information. Using ground-truthed barrier data, we analysed the extent of current longitudinal river fragmentation in the Balkan region and simulated nine dam construction scenarios that varied depending on the number, location and size of the planned dams. Balkan rivers are currently fragmented by 83,017 barriers and have an average barrier density of 0.33 barriers/km after correcting for barrier underreporting; this is 2.2 times lower than the mean barrier density found across Europe and serves to highlight the relatively unfragmented nature of these rivers. However, our analysis shows that all simulated dam construction scenarios would result in a significant loss of connectivity compared to existing conditions. The largest loss of connectivity (-47 %), measured as reduction in barrier-free length, would occur if all planned dams were built, 20 % of which would impact on protected areas. The smallest loss of connectivity (-8 %) would result if only large dams (>10 MW) were built. In contrast, building only small dams (<10 MW) would cause a 45 % loss of connectivity while only contributing 32 % to future hydropower capacity. Hence, the construction of many small hydropower plants will cause a disproportionately large increase in fragmentation that will not be accompanied by a corresponding increase in hydropower. At present, hydropower development in the Balkan rivers does not require Strategic Environmental Assessment, and does not consider cumulative impacts. We encourage planners and policy makers to explicitly consider trade-offs between gains in hydropower and losses in river connectivity at the river basin scale.

Does temperature favour the spread of Raphidiopsis raciborskii, an invasive bloom-forming cyanobacterium, by altering cellular trade-offs?

As a tropical filamentous cyanobacterium, Raphidiopsis raciborskii has attracted much attention due to its expansion and toxin production. However, the mechanisms of its expansion to temperate regions have not been studied in detail. To address the potential strategies, the physiological and metabolomic profiles of R. raciborskii FACHB 1096 isolated from a temperate lake in China were determined and measured at different temperatures (10 °C, 15 °C, 20 °C, 25 °C, and 32 °C). The results demonstrated that temperature significantly changed cell viability, chlorophyll a content, specific growth rate, Chl a fluorescence, and filamentous shape of R. raciborskii. Low temperature decreased cell viability, specific growth rate, and photosynthetic efficiency, while the proportion of akinete and carbon fixation per unit cell were significantly increased compared with high temperature (32 °C). A constructed unimodal model indicated that filament length, cell volume, and cell length/width of R. raciborskii were significantly reduced in both high and low temperature environments. Under low-temperature conditions, R. raciborskii suffered different degrees of oxidative damage and produced corresponding antioxidant substances to resist oxidative stress, suggesting that low temperature changes the metabolic level of the cells, causing the cells to gradually switch from development to defense. Metabolomic data further confirmed that temperature change induced shifts in metabolic pathways in R. raciborskii, including starch and sucrose metabolic pathways, glutathione metabolic pathways, and the pentose phosphate pathways (PPP), as well as metabolic pathways related to the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle. Our results indicated that the trade-offs of R. raciborskii cells among the growth, cell size, and metabolites can be significantly regulated by temperature, with broad implications for its global expansion in temperate waterbodies.

Phenotypic specialization of the pea aphid in its southern limit of distribution

The success of biological invasions ultimately relies on phenotypic traits of the invasive species. Aphids, which include many important pests worldwide, may have been successful invading new environments partly because they can maximize reproductive output by becoming parthenogenetic and losing the sexual phase of their reproductive cycle. However, invasive populations of aphids invading wide ranges can face contrasting environmental conditions and requiring different phenotypic strategies. Besides transitions in their reproductive cycle, it is only partially known which phenotypic traits might be associated to the invasion success of aphid populations in extended novel ranges. Here, we used four genotypes of the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum from two localities in Chile to test for phenotypic specialization that might explain their establishment and spread in habitats exhibiting contrasting environmental conditions. We show that lineages living at a higher latitude with low temperatures show, in addition to facultative sexual reproduction, smaller body sizes, lower metabolic rates and a higher tolerance to the cold than the obligate asexual lineages living in a mild weather, at the expense of fecundity. Conversely, at higher temperatures only asexual lineages were found, which exhibit larger body sizes, higher reproductive outputs and consequently enhanced demographic ability. As a result, in conjunction with the reproductive mode, lineage specialization in physiological and life-history traits could be taken into account as an important strategy for populations of pea aphid to effectively invade extended novel ranges comprising different climatic conditions.

Patterns of energy allocation during energetic scarcity; evolutionary insights from ultra-endurance events

Exercise physiologists and evolutionary biologists share a research interest in determining patterns of energy allocation during times of acute or chronic energetic scarcity.. Within sport and exercise science, this information has important implications for athlete health and performance. For evolutionary biologists, this would shed new light on our adaptive capabilities as a phenotypically plastic species. In recent years, evolutionary biologists have begun recruiting athletes as study participants and using contemporary sports as a model for studying evolution. This approach, known as human athletic palaeobiology, has identified ultra-endurance events as a valuable experimental model to investigate patterns of energy allocation during conditions of elevated energy demand, which are generally accompanied by an energy deficit. This energetic stress provokes detectable functional trade-offs in energy allocation between physiological processes. Early results from this modelsuggest thatlimited resources are preferentially allocated to processes which could be considered to confer the greatest immediate survival advantage (including immune and cognitive function). This aligns with evolutionary perspectives regarding energetic trade-offs during periods of acute and chronic energetic scarcity. Here, we discuss energy allocation patterns during periods of energetic stress as an area of shared interest between exercise physiology and evolutionary biology. We propose that, by addressing the ultimate "why" questions, namely why certain traits were selected for during the human evolutionary journey, an evolutionary perspective can complement the exercise physiology literature and provide a deeper insight of the reasons underpinning the body's physiological response to conditions of energetic stress.

Local stakeholder perceptions of forest degradation: Keys to sustainable tropical forest management

Land use policies and planning in Latin America have been partially successful in halting deforestation yet have not stopped forest degradation. Here, we study the different stakeholders' perspectives of the drivers of forest degradation. We use Colombia as a case study for understanding synergies and trade-offs of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and analyzed what the most important causes are, to whom it matters, and their regional contribution. We identified a common perception, but miscommunication and misunderstandings occur between local- and national-level actors in terms of their views on responsibilities and rates of change. The results are a call for action. Cross-scale governance is necessary to improve the design and implementation of policies for forest management at the subnational and local levels and to ensure that we move toward sustainable development without worsening existing inequalities. It is essential that countries provide the enabling conditions to develop a coherent governing framework.

Spatial trade-offs between ecological and economical sustainability in the boreal production forest

Economically-oriented forestry aims to sustain timber harvest revenues, while ecologically-oriented management supplies suitable habitat for species using deadwood as primary habitat. As these objectives are conflicting, planning for economic and ecological sustainability involves compromise and trade-offs. We analyze the spatial trade-offs between the economic value from timber harvesting and the volume of deadwood in the boreal forest. We assess these trade-offs from three perspectives: (1) landscape characteristics, affected by conservation strategies; (2) forest management promoting either economic or ecological values; (3) uncertainty in inventory errors undermining the estimate of the two sustainability objectives. To reveal the tradeoffs between the forest economic and ecological values we simulated and optimized a production landscape in Finland 30 years into the future accounting for uncertainty in biomass and deadwood inventories. We found that, with a limited reduction in timber harvesting (7%), (i) the amount of deadwood increased more in non-aggregated (45%) than in aggregated (16%) stands, (ii) constraining stands in adjacent areas further increased deadwood (21%) respect to the matrix and (iii) 7% of connected stand area harbored ≥20 m³/ha deadwood supporting survival of near-threatened species. Our results demonstrate that the structure of the landscape for biodiversity can be improved with limited economic losses. However, improving habitat configuration requires larger economic losses than only increasing habitat amount, but its ecological benefits are larger both for common and red-listed species. We found that management oriented towards stand aggregation not only creates connected areas with high deadwood of high value biodiversity but also improves the value of the whole matrix by decreasing intensive timber harvesting and energy wood collection. Finally, we found that uncertainties alter the estimate of the potential of the forest landscape to supply deadwood, and this can affect the choice of management actions to allocate over the landscape. To conclude, our results demonstrate the trade-offs between economic forest use and conservation are affected differently by landscape characteristics, forest management and uncertainty in inventory errors. As such these drivers should be considered when optimizing the forest for multiple uses.

Ecological function zoning based on ecosystem service bundles and trade-offs: a study of Dongjiang Lake Basin, China

Although the research framework of ecological function zoning is complex and diverse, there are not many spatially continuous zoning results, which can be effectively applied to watershed management practices. Ecosystem service bundles and trade-offs can identify interactions among multiple ecosystem services, and achieve better social-ecosystem management when applying to ecological function zoning. Taking the Dongjiang Lake Basin, China, as research area, the study used the InVEST model to investigate the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services at township and grid scales, respectively. Then, the study conducted ecological function zoning based on the bundles and trade-off intensity among ecosystem services. The results showed that food production showed extremely significant trade-offs with other services in the two scales, in which the trade-off intensity between food production and water purification was the largest, and the water areas were the hotspots of trade-off intensity. Based on the ecosystem service bundles at the township, combined with the trade-off intensity, the watershed was finally divided into four ecological functional zones, namely, agricultural product supply area (southern part in the study area), economic forestry area (northeast regions in the study area), water supply area (western areas of the study area), and forest conservation area (northern areas in the study area), accounting for 29.27%, 14.63%, 17.07%, and 39.03%, respectively. The study contributed to the ecological function maintenance and sustainable development in Dongjiang Lake Basin and provided an important reference in ecological zoning.

Can human activities enhance the trade-off intensity of ecosystem services in arid inland river basins? Taking the Taolai River asin as an example

Driven by economic and social factors, more and more human beings intervene in nature to promote rapid economic and social development at the expense of ecosystem services (ES), which inevitably leads to the occurrence and even aggravation of ES trade-offs. Especially in the arid inland river basin is more serious. Therefore, this paper takes the Taolai River Basin as an example and uses the InVEST model to evaluate the spatial distribution of four typical ES, including carbon sequestration, oxygen release, windbreak and sand fixation, and water production, under the potential-actual states of the watershed. And use the Pearson correlation coefficient and the root mean square error (RMSE) to analyze the trade-off relationship between services from qualitative and quantitative aspects, respectively. Finally, the spatial matching types of trade-offs in the potential-actual states are discussed using Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association, and the degree and scope of the impact of human activities on trade-offs are analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the four ES has obvious heterogeneity in the potential-actual states, and the service volume of most services in the potential state is much higher than in the actual state. Secondly, there is a significant trade-offs relationship between Water production and Carbon sequestration and Oxygen release services under the potential state, while the actual state under the impact of human activities shows a significant synergistic relationship, which shows that human activities will not only increase the probability of trade-off will also increase the probability of synergy between ES. Finally, through the analysis of the meaning and causes of "high and low space dislocation" and "low and high space dislocation", it is shown that human activities will not only increase but also weaken the trade-off intensity of ES. The results of this study can provide a certain scientific basis for regional ecological environment planning and promote regional people to share ecological well-being.

Understanding immunity: an alternative framework beyond defense and strength

In this paper we address the issue of how to think about immunity. Many immunological writings suggest a straightforward option: the view that the immune system is primarily a system of defense, which naturally invites the talk of strong immunity and strong immune response. Despite their undisputable positive role in immunology, such metaphors can also pose a risk of establishing a narrow perspective, omitting from consideration phenomena that do not neatly fit those powerful metaphors. Building on this analysis, we argue two things. First, we argue that the immune system is involved not only in defense. Second, by disentangling various possible meanings of 'strength' and 'weakness' in immunology, we also argue that such a construal of immunity generally contributes to the distortion of the overall picture of what the immune system is, what it does, and why it sometimes fails. Instead, we propose to understand the nature of the immune system in terms of contextuality, regulation, and trade-offs. We suggest that our approach provides lessons for a general understanding of the organizing principles of the immune system in health and disease. For all this to work, we discuss a wide range of immunological phenomena.

Drying shapes the ecological niche of aquatic fungi with implications on ecosystem functioning

Fungi are among the most abundant and diverse organisms on Earth and play pivotal roles in global carbon processing, nutrient cycling and food webs. Despite their abundant and functional importance, little is known about the patterns and mechanisms governing their community composition in intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams, which are the most common fluvial ecosystems globally. Thus far, it is known that aquatic fungi have evolved various life-history strategies and functional adaptations to cope with drying. Nevertheless, some of these adaptations have a metabolic cost and trade-offs between growth, reproduction and dispersion that may affect ecosystem functioning. Thus, understanding their ecological strategies along a gradient of drying is crucial to assess how species will respond to global change and to identify meaningful taxa to maintain ecosystem functions. By combining in situ hydrological information with a niche-based approach, we analysed the role of drying in explaining the spatial segregation of fungal species, and we determined their specialization and affinity over a gradient of drying. In addition, we estimated whether species niches are good predictors of two key ecosystem processes: organic matter decomposition and fungal biomass accrual. Overall, we found that annual drying duration and frequency were the most influential variables upon species niche differentiation across the 15 studied streams. Our cluster analysis identified four drying niche-based groups with contrasting distributions and responses over the drying gradient: drying-sensitive, partly tolerant to drying, generalist, and drying-resistant specialist. In addition, we found that species belonging to the drying specialist group showed a weak contribution to both ecosystem processes, suggesting trade-offs between drying resistance strategies and the energy invested in growth. Taken together, our results suggest that increased water scarcity may jeopardise the capacity of aquatic fungi to guarantee ecosystem functioning and to maintain biogeochemical cycles despite their ability to cope with drying.

Exploring perceptions of using preference elicitation methods to inform clinical trial design in rheumatology: A qualitative study and OMERACT collaboration

BACKGROUND

Clinical trial design requires value judgements and understanding patient preferences may help inform these judgements, for example when prioritizing treatment candidates, designing complex interventions, selecting appropriate outcomes, determining clinically important thresholds, or weighting composite outcomes. Preference elicitation methods are quantitative approaches that can estimate patients' preferences to quantify the absolute or relative importance of outcomes or other attributes relevant to the decision context. We aimed to explore stakeholder perceptions of using preference elicitation methods to inform judgements when designing clinical trials in rheumatology.

METHODS

We conducted 1-on-1 semi-structured interviews with patients with rheumatic diseases and rheumatology clinicians/researchers, recruited using purposive and snowball sampling. Participants were provided pre-interview materials, including a video and a document, to introduce the topic of preference elicitation methods and case examples of potential applications to clinical trials. Interviews were conducted via Zoom and were audio-recorded and transcribed. We used thematic analysis to analyze our data.

RESULTS

We interviewed 17 patients and 9 clinicians/researchers, until data and inductive thematic saturation were achieved within each group. Themes were grouped into overall perceptions, barriers, and facilitators. Patients and clinicians/researchers generally agreed that preference elicitation studies can improve clinical trial design, but that many considerations are required around preference heterogeneity and feasibility. A key barrier identified was the additional resources and expertise required to measure and incorporate preferences effectively in trial design. Key facilitators included developing guidance on how to use preference elicitation to inform trial design, as well as the role of external decision-makers in developing such guidance, and the need to leverage the movement towards patient engagement in research to encourage including patient preferences when designing trials.

CONCLUSION

Our findings allowed us to consider the potential applications of patient preferences in trial design according to stakeholders within rheumatology who are involved in the trial process. Future research should be conducted to develop comprehensive guidance on how to meaningfully include patient preferences when designing clinical trials in rheumatology. Doing so may have important downstream effects for shared decision-making, especially given the chronic nature of rheumatic diseases.

Exploring potential drivers of brain size variation in the electric fish Brachyhypopomus occidentalis

Characterizing the factors that shape variation in brain size in natural populations is crucial to understanding the evolution of brain size in animals. Here, we explore how relative brain size and brain allometry vary with drainage, predation risk and sex in natural populations of the electric knifefish Brachyhypopomus occidentalis. Fish were sampled from high and low predation risk sites within two independent river drainages in eastern and central Panamá. Overall, we observed low variation in brain-body size allometric slopes associated with drainage, predation risk and sex category. However, we observed significant differences in allometric intercepts between predation risk sites. We also found significant differences in relative brain mass associated with drainage, as well as significant differences in absolute brain mass associated with drainage, predation risk and sex category. Our results suggest potential constraints in brain-body allometry across populations of B. occidentalis. However, both drainage and predation risk may be playing a role in brain mass variation among populations. We suggest that variation in brain mass in electric fishes is affected by multiple extrinsic and intrinsic factors, including geography, environmental complexity, social interaction and developmental or functional constraints.

Going big by going small: Trade-offs in microbiome explanations of cancer

Microbial factors have been implicated in cancer risk, disease progression, treatment and prevention. The key word, however, is "implicated." Our aim in this paper is to map out some of the tensions between competing methods, goals, and standards of evidence in cancer research with respect to the causal role of microbial factors. We discuss an array of pragmatic and epistemic trade-offs in this research area: prioritizing coarse-grained versus fine-grained explanations of the roles of microbiota in cancer; explaining general versus specific cancer targets; studying model organisms versus human patients; and understanding and explaining cancer versus developing diagnostic tools and treatments. In light of these trade-offs and the distinctive complexity and heterogeneity on both sides of the microbiome-cancer relationship, we suggest that it would be more productive and intellectually honest to frame much of this work, at least currently, in terms of generating causal hypotheses to investigate further. Claims of established causal connections between the microbiome and cancer are in many cases overstated. We also discuss the value of "black boxing" microbial causal variables in this research context and draw some general cautionary lessons for ongoing discussions of microbiomes and cancer.

Dramatic shift in the drivers of ecosystem service trade-offs across an aridity gradient: Evidence from China's Loess Plateau

Increased aridity creates challenges for sustainable ecosystem management due to the potential for trade-offs among ecosystem services. However, our understanding of how ecosystem service trade-offs (EST) respond to aridification remains limited. Here, generalized additive models and structural equation modeling were used to explore EST dynamics within an aridity gradient on the Loess Plateau, China. Trade-offs between water yield and both carbon storage and habitat quality showed nonlinear relationships with aridity, first increasing and then decreasing. Interestingly, climatic and human factors mostly indirectly influenced EST via effects on landscape characteristics. In regions with an Aridity Index (AI) value of <0.5, climatic and human factors strongly drove EST; in regions with AI > 0.5, landscape characteristics were most important. Therefore, landscape characteristics acted as the key regulators of EST. Importantly, AI values of ∼0.5 represented a transition point, after which dramatic shifts in EST-driver relationships were observed. As >22 % of the Earth's terrestrial surface is projected to reach this level of aridity by 2100, further research on this boundary (between sub-humid and semi-arid areas) is urgently needed to protect ecosystems from the effects of increasing aridity. This study may serve as a valuable reference for mitigating the potential negative effects of increased aridity on human well-being.

Trade-offs and synergistic relationships of ecosystem services under land use change in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020: A Bayesian network analysis

Ecosystem service value (ESV) refers to the value of benefits provided by the ecosystem to people, and can reflect the quality of regional ecological environment. There have been few studies on ESV in arid regions experiencing dramatic land use changes. Also, many past ESV studies have obtained distorted results by using a simple linear function to examine the trade-offs between driving factors. This study quantified ESV in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 based on value equivalent method. Differences in ESV among ecosystem services in Xinjiang under different scenarios were simulated using a Bayesian network model. The results demonstrated land use changes in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020, with construction land expanding the most significantly (dynamic index: 224.63 %), whereas grassland area decreased (dynamic index: -1.31 %) due to transformation to unused and cultivated land. ESV in Xinjiang presented an N-shaped variation trend from 1990 to 2020 and decreased by 309.6 × 10⁸ CNY, with a variation rate of -20.35 %. The rank of the four categories of ecological services from 1990 to 2020 in terms of ESV was: regulating services > support services > cultural services > supply services. There was a gradual reduction in ESV in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020. The rank of the different regions in terms of the reduction in ESV was: Northern Xinjiang (295.24 × 10⁸ CNY) > Southern Xinjiang (280.94 × 10⁸ CNY) > Eastern Xinjiang (109.76 × 10⁸ CNY). Land use change was a direct driver of changes in ESV, whereas natural and social factors, such as precipitation, temperature, population, and policy factors, were indirect drivers. This study can act as a reference for sustainable management of ecosystem services in arid regions.

Development of WEF-P Nexus based on product-supply chain: A case study of phosphorous fertilizer industry in Morocco

The aim of this study was to analyze various sustainability strategies for phosphate and phosphorous fertilizer production systems from the perspective of their holistic impacts on water, energy, and CO₂ emissions. The study was conducted using the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus Tool 2.0, adapted to include the phosphate industry (WEF-P tool). It assesses the scenarios based on priorities identified by the Moroccan phosphate industry, such as the environmental impact of transporting phosphate rock by train and phosphate slurry by pipeline and increased desalinated water use. Results show that each scenario's sustainability can be assessed in terms of phosphate production, processes, resource (water and energy) availability, and CO₂ emissions in mining and manufacturing areas. The analytical methodology of the tool is based on an integrated supply chain and life cycle assessment, which includes the production flows linking mining phosphate and manufacturing phosphorous fertilizers and their water and energy supply systems. Field surveys were used to identify the supply chain and estimate the relationships between production and resource consumption in each process. The tool is a decision-support platform that produces sustainability indices for multiple scenarios of resource allocation (water and energy) and CO₂ emissions, allowing stakeholders to compare potential outcomes and formulate decisions based on their understanding of the actual trade-offs involved.

Transforming agroforestry in contested landscapes: A win-win solution to trade-offs in ecosystem services in Nepal

Trade-offs in ecosystem services (ES) is increasingly becoming a pressing issue in sustainability science, to deal with supply constraints of landscape and divergence in demand from local and global stakeholders. Agroforestry is a well acknowledged and established management practice to minimize the trade-offs, and to sustainably manage the contested landscapes while satisfying the growing demands of both local and global ecosystem beneficiaries. However, various facets of agroforestry, its management modality, institutional arrangements, and implementation outcomes are inadequately understood. This paper aims to scrutinize major agroforestry practices through the methods of systematic review of literature, government policies, and project reports. Taking a case of Nepal, this paper presents agroforestry transition from forest-based agroforestry (i.e., shifting cultivation) to farm-based integrated approach to agroforestry in Nepal. This paper reveals that integrated agro-forestry approach is crucial in creating win-win scenarios among various stakeholders by minimizing trade-offs and maximizing synergies among ES, especially food, fibre, and other ES (i.e., biodiversity, soil functioning, water, and climate regulation). Analysing socio-economic, ecological, and institutional factors that are affecting agroforestry for the last fifty years, we further suggest an integrated model of agroforestry which is replicable in other countries with similar socio-economic status, practicing subsistence farming system. The findings of the paper are crucial in awakening scholars, policy makers and landscape managers for up-scaling and out-scaling of integrated approach to agroforestry for ecosystem management and attainment of various sustainable development goals such as, no poverty (#1), zero hunger (#2), climate action (#13), and life on land (#15).

Honesty in signalling games is maintained by trade-offs rather than costs

BACKGROUND

Signal reliability poses a central problem for explaining the evolution of communication. According to Zahavi's Handicap Principle, signals are honest only if they are costly at the evolutionary equilibrium; otherwise, deception becomes common and communication breaks down. Theoretical signalling games have proved to be useful for understanding the logic of signalling interactions. Theoretical evaluations of the Handicap Principle are difficult, however, because finding the equilibrium cost function in such signalling games is notoriously complicated. Here, we provide a general solution to this problem and show how cost functions can be calculated for any arbitrary, pairwise asymmetric signalling game at the evolutionary equilibrium.

RESULTS

Our model clarifies the relationship between signalling costs at equilibrium and the conditions for reliable signalling. It shows that these two terms are independent in both additive and multiplicative models, and that the cost of signalling at honest equilibrium has no effect on the stability of communication. Moreover, it demonstrates that honest signals at the equilibrium can have any cost value, even negative, being beneficial for the signaller independently of the receiver's response at equilibrium and without requiring further constraints. Our results are general and we show how they apply to seminal signalling models, including Grafen's model of sexual selection and Godfray's model of parent-offspring communication.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results refute the claim that signals must be costly at the evolutionary equilibrium to be reliable, as predicted by the Handicap Principle and so-called 'costly signalling' theory. Thus, our results raise serious concerns about the handicap paradigm. We argue that the evolution of reliable signalling is better understood within a Darwinian life-history framework, and that the conditions for honest signalling are more clearly stated and understood by evaluating their trade-offs rather than their costs per se. We discuss potential shortcomings of equilibrium models and we provide testable predictions to help advance the field and establish a better explanation for honest signals. Last but not least, our results highlight why signals are expected to be efficient rather than wasteful.

Exploring cost-effective measure portfolios for ecosystem services optimization under large-scale vegetation restoration

Ecosystem services-based land management incorporates environmental features and social needs, providing an important opportunity to realize global sustainability goals. Recent decades, the interaction among water-related ecosystem services (ESs) is getting ambiguous during regional vegetation restoration, which entails challenges for coordinating restoration actions, economic resources, and water-soil resources' availability. In this study, we first explored mechanism of trade-offs among five water-related ESs in the Chinese Loess Plateau under vegetation restoration. Given the decreased baseflow and its widespread trade-offs with water quality, we then developed four scenarios aiming at enhancing the baseflow and nutrient retention in a cost-effective way, by engaging a spatially explicit biophysical software tool-the RIOS model. Moreover, we selected four typical watersheds in the Loess Plateau as cases to demonstrate the differentiated information on the budget levels and the activity sites. The results indicated that, a deep mechanism of scale effects of trade-off among ESs was largely related to spatial heterogeneity rather than spatial resolution, which also affected activity portfolios under different ES scenarios. For the entire Loess Plateau, activity of forest maintenance should be concentrated on the cost-effective locations of investment for the enhancement of baseflow and nutrient retention. Under the regular budget scenarios, trade-offs only could be locally alleviated in reality, while dropping the high-cost ES objectives is an advisable strategy for minimizing investment risk. Taking conservation agricultural practices in the plain river basins should be regarded as a priority when budget can be increased. In contrast, an approach of 'governing by non-interference' for typical watersheds of re-vegetation was sensible strategy for avoiding trade-offs aggravation. These findings emphasized interrelation between the mechanism of ESs trade-offs and activity portfolios, which is an important basis for the implementation of conservation activities in real world context, and a rational reference for the simulation of desired ES goals in future studies.

Assessing synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement are the two transformative agendas, which set the benchmarks for nations to address urgent social, economic and environmental challenges. Aside from setting long-term goals, the pathways followed by nations will involve a series of synergies and trade-offs both between and within these agendas. Since it will not be possible to optimise across the 17 SDGs while simultaneously transitioning to low-carbon societies, it will be necessary to implement policies to address the most critical aspects of the agendas and understand the implications for the other dimensions. Here, we rely on a modelling exercise to analyse the long-term implications of a variety of Paris-compliant mitigation strategies suggested in the recent scientific literature on multiple dimensions of the SDG Agenda. The strategies included rely on technological solutions such as renewable energy deployment or carbon capture and storage, nature-based solutions such as afforestation and behavioural changes in the demand side. Results for a selection of energy-environment SDGs suggest that some mitigation pathways could have negative implications on food and water prices, forest cover and increase pressure on water resources depending on the strategy followed, while renewable energy shares, household energy costs, ambient air pollution and yield impacts could be improved simultaneously while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, results indicate that promoting changes in the demand side could be beneficial to limit potential trade-offs.

Investigating the trade-offs between the supply and demand for ecosystem services for regional spatial management

Understanding the supply and demand characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) and their trade-offs is the basis for effective ecosystem management and the improvement of human well-being. However, current management practices based on the trade-offs between the supply and demand for ESs remain limited. This study aimed to integrate ES trade-offs into regional spatial management. With Changzhi, China, as the study area, this study evaluated the supply, demand, and trade-offs of food provision, water conservation, soil retention, and carbon sequestration by linking multi-source data and using spatial analysis tools, including the InVEST model, ArcGIS, and GeoDA. Based on the trade-offs and importance of different ecological functions, we constructed an urban spatial management framework and proposed recommendations for optimization in different management zones. The results showed that (1) the supply and demand for multiple ESs exhibited spatial heterogeneity. Except for water conservation, the supply of other ESs met the demand of the city, but there were still obvious deficits in some regions. (2) In terms of the ES supply, there were trade-offs between food production and other ESs, and synergies existed among water conservation, soil retention, and carbon sequestration. In terms of the ES demand, the four ESs exhibited synergistic relationships. In the cluster analysis, ES supply and demand were divided into four ES bundles, respectively. (3) The spatial mismatch of ESs in the sub-watersheds of the study area was obvious. The ESDR coldspots for the four ESs were primarily located in the urban built-up areas in the central and southern regions of the city. The ESDR hotspots of soil retention and carbon sequestration were mainly distributed in the eastern and northwestern regions of Changzhi, which are less urbanized. There were few ESDR hotspots for food production and water conservation. (4) Based on the regional spatial management framework, Changzhi was divided into ten zones, including extremely important, moderately important, important, supply-demand risk management, soil erosion management, and high food production areas. The results and conclusions of this study provide a basis for spatial planning and ecosystem management.

Personality traits, rank attainment, and siring success throughout the lives of male chimpanzees of Gombe National Park

Personality traits in many taxa correlate with fitness. Several models have been developed to try to explain how variation in these traits is maintained. One model proposes that variation persists because it is linked to trade-offs between current and future adaptive benefits. Tests of this model's predictions, however, are scant in long-lived species. To test this model, we studied male chimpanzees living in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. We operationalized six personality traits using ratings on 19 items. We used 37 years of behavioral and genetic data to assemble (1) daily rank scores generated from submissive vocalizations and (2) records of male siring success. We tested whether the association between two personality traits, Dominance and Conscientiousness, and either rank or reproductive success, varied over the life course. Higher Dominance and lower Conscientiousness were associated with higher rank, but the size and direction of these relationships did not vary over the life course. In addition, independent of rank at the time of siring, higher Dominance and lower Conscientiousness were related to higher siring success. Again, the size and direction of these relationships did not vary over the life course. The trade-off model, therefore, may not hold in long-lived and/or slowly reproducing species. These findings also demonstrate that ratings are a valid way to measure animal personality; they are related to rank and reproductive success. These traits could therefore be used to test alternative models, including one that posits that personality variation is maintained by environmental heterogeneity, in studies of multiple chimpanzee communities.