Optimal scale of China's cities under the maximization of economic benefits and environmental benefits

The cities are the consumption concentration of energy, resources, and the concentration of CO₂ emissions. The cities' area only accounted for 2% in the world's surface; however, their population accounted for about 50% of the total population, and CO₂ emissions accounted for about 80% of the total emissions. The cities lie in a key position in solving the global climate change. China's urbanization level was just exceeding by 50%, which was in the intermediate stage of urbanization. The rapid development of the urbanization process and the expansion of city scale have brought economic growth and all kinds of environmental issues. Therefore, is there an optimal city scale which can make cities maintain economic growth and can also reduce or even avoid the environmental problems in the meantime? The question deserves deep research. Based on the background, the data from 1998 to 2014, and the goals of the cities' economic and environmental benefits, this paper builds the optimal scale model for the cities, and obtain two conclusions: (1) in a certain period and range, the cities have the optimal scale; (2) for the cities in China, the optimal scale is about 1.78 million people.

Coverage and factors associated with influenza vaccination among kindergarten children 2-7 years old in a low-income city of north-western China (2014-2016)

Influenza vaccination has been shown to be the most effective preventive measure to reduce influenza virus infection and its related morbidity and mortality. Young children aged 6-59 months are recommended as one of the priority groups for seasonal influenza vaccination in China. Our study was conducted to evaluate the level of influenza vaccination coverage during 2014-15 and 2015-16 influenza seasons among kindergarten children aged 2-7 years in Xining, a low-income city of north-western China, and to explore potential factors for noncompliance associated with influenza vaccination. The coverage rate of influenza vaccination was 12.2% (95 CI: 10.6-14.2%) in 2014-15 and 12.8% (95 CI: 11.1-14.7%) in 2015-16. The low coverage rate was found to be primarily associated with the lack of knowledge about influenza vaccine in children's parents. The most common reason for vaccine declination was the concern about adverse reactions of vaccine. Therefore tailored information should be provided by clinician and public health doctors for targeted groups through effective methods to improve public understanding of vaccination.

Heterogeneous Costs of Alcohol and Drug Problems Across Cities and Counties in California

BACKGROUND

Estimates of economic and social costs related to alcohol and other drug (AOD) use and abuse are usually made at state and national levels. Ecological analyses demonstrate, however, that substantial variations exist in the incidence and prevalence of AOD use and problems including impaired driving, violence, and chronic disease between smaller geopolitical units like counties and cities. This study examines the ranges of these costs across counties and cities in California.

METHODS

We used estimates of the incidence and prevalence of AOD use, abuse, and related problems to calculate costs in 2010 dollars for all 58 counties and an ecological sample of 50 cities with populations between 50,000 and 500,000 persons in California. The estimates were built from archival and public-use survey data collected at state, county, and city levels over the years from 2009 to 2010.

RESULTS

Costs related to alcohol use and related problems exceeded those related to illegal drugs across all counties and most cities in the study. Substantial heterogeneities in costs were observed between cities within counties.

CONCLUSIONS

AOD costs are heterogeneously distributed across counties and cities, reflecting the degree to which different populations are engaged in use and abuse across the state. These findings provide a strong argument for the distribution of treatment and prevention resources proportional to need.

Spatial disparity dynamics of ecosystem service values and GDP in Shaanxi Province, China in the last 30 years

The regional policy in China is shifting from solely gross domestic product (GDP) orientation to development that is more balanced between economic growth and ecological protection, as well as achieving equality among regions. Using land use maps and the adjusted value coefficients to assess ecosystem service values (ESV) for the 1980s, 1995, 2000, and 2010, we estimated the ESV in Shaanxi Province for different years, and characterized the spatial and temporal distribution of ESV and GDP. The results demonstrated that the total value of ecosystem services in Shaanxi Province increased from 208.95 billion Yuan in the 1980s to 309.76 billion Yuan in 2010. Variation Coefficient (C_v) and Theil index (T) were used to reflect the disparities of GDP or ESV within the study area. The values of Cv in descending order are GDP, ESV per capita, ESV, and GDP per capita. The Theil indexes of GDP were much greater than the ones of ESV. Variations of Cv and T showed that disparity in GDP kept increasing from the 1980s to 2000, then decreased; while no significant change in regional disparity of ESV were detected in parallel. The cities with higher GDP usually contributed little to ESV, and vice versa. The variation in GDP and ESV, in terms of the prefectural totals and per capita values, increased from the 1980s to 2010. This study provides an accessible way for local decision makers to evaluate the regional balance between economic growth and ecosystem services.

Rich and Poor Cities in Europe. An Urban Scaling Approach to Mapping the European Economic Transition

Recent advances in the urban science make broad use of the notion of scaling. We focus here on the important scaling relationship between the gross metropolitan product (GMP) of a city and its population (pop). It has been demonstrated that GMP ∝ Y Ypopβ with β always greater than 1 and close to 1.2. This fundamental finding highlights a universal rule that holds across countries and cultures and might explain the very nature of cities. However, in an increasingly connected world, the hypothesis that the economy of a city solely depends on its population might be questionable. Using data for 248 cities in the European Union between 2005 and 2010, we found a double GMP/pop scaling regime. For West EU cities, β = 1 over the whole the period, while for post-communist cities β > 1 and increases from ∼1.2 to ∼1.4. The evolution of the scaling exponent describes the convergence of post-communist European cities to open and liberal economies. We propose a simple model of economic convergence in which, under stable political conditions, a linear GMP/pop scaling is expected for all cities. The results suggest that the GMP/pop super-linear scaling represents a phase of economic growth rather than a steady, universal urban feature. The results also suggest that relationships between cities are embedded in their political and economic context and cannot be neglected in explanations of cities, urbanization and urban economics.

Evaluating Pillar Industry's Transformation Capability: A Case Study of Two Chinese Steel-Based Cities

Many steel-based cities in China were established between the 1950s and 1960s. After more than half a century of development and boom, these cities are starting to decline and industrial transformation is urgently needed. This paper focuses on evaluating the transformation capability of resource-based cities building an evaluation model. Using Text Mining and the Document Explorer technique as a way of extracting text features, the 200 most frequently used words are derived from 100 publications related to steel- and other resource-based cities. The Expert Evaluation Method (EEM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) techniques are then applied to select 53 indicators, determine their weights and establish an index system for evaluating the transformation capability of the pillar industry of China's steel-based cities. Using real data and expert reviews, the improved Fuzzy Relation Matrix (FRM) method is applied to two case studies in China, namely Panzhihua and Daye, and the evaluation model is developed using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). The cities' abilities to carry out industrial transformation are evaluated with concerns expressed for the case of Daye. The findings have policy implications for the potential and required industrial transformation in the two selected cities and other resource-based towns.

On the Morphology of a Growing City: A Heuristic Experiment Merging Static Economics with Dynamic Geography

In this paper, we aim at exploring how individual location decisions affect the shape of a growing city and, more precisely, how they may add up to a configuration that diverges from equilibrium configurations formulated ex-ante. To do so, we provide a two-sector city model merging a static equilibrium analysis with agent-based simulations. Results show that under strong agglomeration effects, urban development is monotonic and ends up with circular, monocentric long-term configurations. For low agglomeration effects however, elongated and multicentric urban configurations may emerge. The occurrence and underlying dynamics of these configurations are also discussed regarding commuting costs and the distance-decay of agglomeration economies between firms. To sum up, our paper warns urban planning policy makers against the difference that may stand between appropriate long-term perspectives, represented here by analytic equilibrium configurations, and short-term urban configurations, simulated here by a multi-agent system.

An Entangled Model for Sustainability Indicators

Nowadays the challenge for humanity is to find pathways towards sustainable development. Decision makers require a set of sustainability indicators to know if the sustainability strategies are following those pathways. There are more than one hundred sustainability indicators but they differ on their relative importance according to the size of the locality and change on time. The resources needed to follow these sustainability indicators are scarce and in some instances finite, especially in smaller regions. Therefore strategies to select set of these indicators are useful for decision makers responsible for monitoring sustainability. In this paper we propose a model for the identification and selection of a set of sustainability indicators that adequately represents human systems. In developing this model, we applied evolutionary dynamics in a space where sustainability indicators are fundamental entities interconnected by an interaction matrix. we used a fixed interaction that simulates the current context for the city of Cuernavaca, México as an example. We were able to identify and define relevant sets indicators for the system by using the Pareto principle. In this case we identified a set of sixteen sustainability indicators with more than 80% of the total strength. This set presents resilience to perturbations. For the Tangled Nature framework we provided a manner of treating different contexts (i.e., cities, counties, states, regions, countries, continents or the whole planet), dealing with small dimensions. This model provides decision makers with a valuable tool to select sustainability indicators set for towns, cities, regions, countries, continents or the entire planet according to a coevolutionary framework. The social legitimacy can arise from the fact that each individual indicator must be selected from those that are most important for the subject community.

Urban Economies Resource Productivity and Decoupling: Metabolism Trends of 1996-2011 in Sweden, Stockholm, and Gothenburg

Resource productivity and evidence of economic decoupling were investigated on the basis of the time series in 1996-2011 of material flow analysis for Sweden, Stockholm, and Gothenburg. In the three cases, absolute reductions in CO2 emissions by about 20% were observed, energy consumption per capita decreased, while gross domestic product (GDP) per capita grew. The energy consumption of the residential and public sectors decreased drastically, while the transport energy consumption is still growing steadily. Decoupling of the economy as a whole (i.e., including materials) is not yet happening at any scale. The domestic material consumption (DMC) continues to increase, in parallel with the GDP. The rate of increase for DMC is slower than that for GDP in both Stockholm and Sweden as a whole (i.e., relative decoupling). The metabolism of the cities does not replicate the national metabolism, and the two cities each have their own distinct metabolism profiles. As a consequence, policy implications for each of the case studies were suggested. In general, because of the necessarily different roles of the two cities in the national economy, generic resource productivity benchmarks, such as CO2 per capita, should be avoided in favor of sectorial benchmarks, such as industry, transport, or residential CO2 per capita. In addition, the share of the city impacts caused by the provision of a service for the rest of the country, such as a port, could be allocated to the national economy.

Treatment of urban river contaminated sediment with ex situ advanced oxidation processes: technical feasibility, environmental discharges and cost-performance analysis

The technical feasibility, environmental discharges and cost-performance of urban river contaminated sediment treatment with ex situ advanced oxidation processes were evaluated for the purpose of achieving an ideal treatment goal (for marine disposal) and a cost-performance treatment goal (for beneficially reusing as a filling material). Sediment samples were collected from a river located in southern China. To achieve the ideal treatment goal, sequential treatments (Fenton's reaction+activated persulphate oxidation) were carried out. One-step Fenton's reaction was applied to achieve the cost-performance treatment goal. The resulting effluent was treated and discharged, and sludge generated in wastewater treatment was characterized. The resources input throughout the treatment processes were recorded for cost estimation. After the treatment designed for achieving the ideal treatment goal, most pollutants fulfilled the treatment goal except Pb, Cd, Hg and Ag, probably because these four metals were present mainly in stable fractions of the sediment. The cost-performance treatment goal was achieved in view of low pollutant contents in the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure leachate of treated sediment. The cost for achieving the cost-performance treatment goal is much less than that for achieving the ideal treatment goal. The major cost difference is attributed to chemical cost. Stringent sediment treatment goals based on existing standards would lead to massive chemical use, complex treatment and hence huge cost. A simpler treatment with fewer chemicals is adequate for sediment beneficially reused as a filling material, and is economically more advantageous than handling sediment for marine disposal.

Comprehensive evaluation of environmental and economic benefits of China's urban underground transportation construction projects

Urban underground transportation projects are introduced to address problems of scarce green land and traffic pollution. As construction of urban underground transportation is still in its infancy, there is no definite quantitative measurement on whether the construction is beneficial and what influences it will place on the region in China. This study intends to construct a comprehensive evaluation method for evaluating social, economic and environmental benefits of urban underground transportation projects and proposes the concept, role and principle for evaluation of environmental and economic benefits. It figures out relationship between the environment and factors of city development. It also summarizes three relevant factors, including transportation, biophysics and social economy, and works out indicators to evaluate the influence of urban underground transportation construction. Based on Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), Cost of Illness Approach (CIA), Human Capital Approach (HCA), this paper constructs 13 monetization calculation models for social, economic and environmental benefits in response to seven aspects, namely, reducing noise pollution and air pollution, using land efficiently, improving traffic safety, reducing traffic congestion, saving shipping time and minimizing transportation costs.

A quantitative analysis of municipal solid waste disposal charges in China

Rapid industrialization and economic development have caused a tremendous increase in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in China. China began implementing a policy of MSW disposal fees for household waste management at the end of last century. Three charging methods were implemented throughout the country: a fixed disposal fee, a potable water-based disposal fee, and a plastic bag-based disposal fee. To date, there has been little qualitative or quantitative analysis on the effectiveness of this relatively new policy. This paper provides a general overview of MSW fee policy in China, attempts to verify whether the policy is successful in reducing general waste collected, and proposes an improved charging system to address current problems. The paper presents an empirical statistical analysis of policy effectiveness derived from an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) test on panel data of China. EKC tests on different kinds of MSW charge systems were then examined for individual provinces or cities. A comparison of existing charging systems was conducted using environmental and economic criteria. The results indicate the following: (1) the MSW policies implemented over the study period were effective in the reduction of waste generation, (2) the household waste discharge fee policy did not act as a strong driver in terms of waste prevention and reduction, and (3) the plastic bag-based disposal fee appeared to be performing well according to qualitative and quantitative analysis. Based on current situation of waste discharging management in China, a three-stage transitional charging scheme is proposed and both advantages and drawbacks discussed. Evidence suggests that a transition from a fixed disposal fee to a plastic bag-based disposal fee involving various stakeholders should be the next objective of waste reduction efforts.

Understanding human--coyote encounters in urban ecosystems using citizen science data: what do socioeconomics tell us?

The coyote (Canis latrans) has dramatically expanded its range to include the cities and suburbs of the western US and those of the Eastern Seaboard. Highly adaptable, this newcomer's success causes conflicts with residents, necessitating research to understand the distribution of coyotes in urban landscapes. Citizen science can be a powerful approach toward this aim. However, to date, the few studies that have used publicly reported coyote sighting data have lacked an in-depth consideration of human socioeconomic variables, which we suggest are an important source of overlooked variation in data that describe the simultaneous occurrence of coyotes and humans. We explored the relative importance of socioeconomic variables compared to those describing coyote habitat in predicting human-coyote encounters in highly-urbanized Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, USA using 707 public reports of coyote sightings, high-resolution land cover, US Census data, and an autologistic multi-model inference approach. Three of the four socioeconomic variables which we hypothesized would have an important influence on encounter probability, namely building density, household income, and occupation, had effects at least as large as or larger than coyote habitat variables. Our results indicate that the consideration of readily available socioeconomic variables in the analysis of citizen science data improves the prediction of species distributions by providing insight into the effects of important factors for which data are often lacking, such as resource availability for coyotes on private property and observer experience. Managers should take advantage of citizen scientists in human-dominated landscapes to monitor coyotes in order to understand their interactions with humans.

Regional collaboration among Urban Area Security Initiative regions: results of the Johns Hopkins urban area survey

Regional collaboration has been identified as a potential facilitator of public health preparedness efforts. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) grant program, administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) since 2003, has provided 64 high-risk metropolitan areas funding to enhance their regional preparedness capabilities. This study describes informal and formal regional collaboration infrastructure, as well as regional collaboration-related activities and assessment methods, in FFY2010 UASI regions. A cross-sectional online survey was administered via Survey Monkey from September through December 2013. Points of contact from FFY2010 funded UASI metropolitan areas completed the survey, with a response rate of 77.8% (n=49). Summary statistics were calculated to describe the current informal and formal regional collaboration infrastructure. Additionally, the cross-sectional survey collected rates of agreement with 8 collaborative preparedness statements at 3 time points. The survey found that UASI regions are engaging in collaborative activities and investments to build capabilities, with most collaboration occurring in the prevention, protection, and response mission areas. Collaborative relationships in preparedness among emergency managers and municipal chief executive officers improved during the FFY2010 UASI performance period compared to the pre-UASI award period, with lasting effects. The majority of UASI regions reported conducting independent assessments of capabilities and their measurement at the UASI region level. Urban areas that received a FFY2010 UASI grant award are engaging in collaborative activities and have established interjurisdictional relationships in preparedness. The use of grant funds to encourage collaboration in preparedness has the potential to leverage limited resources and promote informed investments.

[Adaptability assessment of economic and environmental development of Tangshan, Hebei, China]

It is vital to explore whether the economic system adapts to the environmental system as the relationship between economy and environment becomes a gradually concerned problem. Tangshan, a typical resource-based city, was chosen to study the adaptabilities and performances of economic developments in response to environmental changes from 1992 to 2011. It was found that the economic-environmental adaptation curve of Tangshan City had an overall fluctuating and increasing tendency. The systematic adaptability kept advancing, reflecting Tangshan paid much attention to environmental development in addition to economic performances, and the two aspects became more and more coordinated. Filtering analysis of the adaptive curve with Eviews software revealed that the potential systematic coordinating index was rising continuously, however, the sum of resilience gap for 20 years was still negative, which implied that fundamental contradictions between high economic development and high energy consumption and high pollutant emission still existed. Carrying out adaptive researches not only helps people to adapt to climate changes better, but also has significances for economic and environmental coordination and sustainability research.

Relationship between air pollutants and economic development of the provincial capital cities in China during the past decade

With the economic development of China, air pollutants are also growing rapidly in recent decades, especially in big cities of the country. To understand the relationship between economic condition and air pollutants in big cities, we analysed the socioeconomic indictors such as Gross Regional Product per capita (GRP per capita), the concentration of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2) and the air pollution index (API) from 2003 to 2012 in 31 provincial capitals of mainland China. The three main industries had a quadratic correlation with NO2, but a negative relationship with PM10 and SO2. The concentration of air pollutants per ten thousand yuan decreased with the multiplying of GRP in the provincial cities. The concentration of air pollutants and API in the provincial capital cities showed a declining trend or inverted-U trend with the rise of GRP per capita, which provided a strong evidence for the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), that the environmental quality first declines, then improves, with the income growth. The results of this research improved our understanding of the alteration of atmospheric quality with the increase of social economy and demonstrated the feasibility of sustainable development for China.

Economic recession and emergence of an HIV-1 outbreak among drug injectors in Athens metropolitan area: a longitudinal study

Background

During 2011, a dramatic increase (1600%) of reported HIV-1 infections among injecting drug users (IDUs) was noted in Athens, Greece. We herein assess the potential causal pathways associated with this outbreak.

Methods

Our study employed high resolution HIV-1 phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses. We examined also longitudinal data of ecological variables such as the annual growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of Greece in association with HIV-1 and HCV sentinel prevalence in IDUs, unemployment and homelessness rates and HIV transmission networks in Athens IDUs before and during economic recession (2008–2012).

Results

IDU isolates sampled in 2011 and 2012 suggested transmission networks in 94.6% and 92.7% of the cases in striking contrast with the sporadic networking (5%) during 1998–2009. The geographic origin of most HIV-1 isolates was consistent with the recently documented migratory waves in Greece. The decline in GDP was inversely correlated with annual prevalence rates of HIV and HCV and with unemployment and homelessness rates in IDUs (all p<0.001). The slope of anti-HCV prevalence in the sentinel populations of IDUs and in “new” drug injectors was found 120 and 1.9-fold (p = 0.007, p = 0.08 respectively) higher in 2008–2012 (economic recession) compared with 2002–2006. The median (25th, 75th) size of transmission networks were 34 (12, 58) and 2 (2, 2) (p = 0.057) in 2008–2012 and 1998–2007, respectively. The coverage of harm reduction services was low throughout the study period.

Conclusions

Scaling-up harm reduction services and addressing social and structural factors related to the current economic crisis should be urgently considered in environments where HIV-1 outbreaks may occur.

Impact of source segregation intensity of solid waste on fuel consumption and collection costs

Fuel consumption and collection costs of solid waste were evaluated by the aid of a simulation model for a given collection area of a medium-sized Italian city. Using the model it is possible to calculate time, collected waste and fuel consumption for a given waste collection route. Starting from the data for the current waste collection scenario with a Source Segregated (SS) intensity of 25%, all the main model error evaluated was ⩽1.2. SS intensity scenarios of 25%, 30%, 35% and 52% were simulated. Results showed an increase in the average fuel consumed by the collection vehicles that went from about 3.3L/tonne for 25% SS intensity to about 3.8L/tonne for a SS intensity of 52%. Direct collection costs, including crews and vehicle purchase, ranged from about 40€/tonne to about 70€/tonne, respectively, for 25% and 52% SS intensity. The increase in fuel consumption and collection costs depends on the density of the waste collected, on the collection vehicle compaction ratio and on the waste collection vehicle utilization factor (WCVUF). In particular a reduction of about 50% of the WCVUF can lead to an average increase of about 80% in fuel consumption and 100% in collection costs.

A cost evaluation method for transferring municipalities to solid waste source-separated system

Most of Israel's waste is disposed in landfills, threatening scarce land resources and posing environmental and health risks. The aim of this study is to estimate the expected costs of transferring municipalities to solid waste source separation in Israel, aimed at reducing the amount of waste directed to landfills and increasing the efficiency and amount of recycled waste. Information on the expected costs of operating a solid waste source separation system was gathered from 47 municipalities and compiled onto a database, taking into consideration various factors such as costs of equipment, construction adjustments and waste collection and disposal. This database may serve as a model for estimating the costs of entering the waste source separation system for any municipality in Israel, while taking into consideration its specific characteristics, such as size and region. The model was used in Israel for determining municipalities' eligibility to receive a governmental grant for entering an accelerated process of solid waste source separation. This study displays a user-friendly and simple operational tool for assessing municipalities' costs of entering a process of waste source separation, providing policy makers a powerful tool for diverting funds effectively in promoting solid waste source separation.

Urban scaling and the production function for cities

The factors that account for the differences in the economic productivity of urban areas have remained difficult to measure and identify unambiguously. Here we show that a microscopic derivation of urban scaling relations for economic quantities vs. population, obtained from the consideration of social and infrastructural properties common to all cities, implies an effective model of economic output in the form of a Cobb-Douglas type production function. As a result we derive a new expression for the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of urban areas, which is the standard measure of economic productivity per unit of aggregate production factors (labor and capital). Using these results we empirically demonstrate that there is a systematic dependence of urban productivity on city population size, resulting from the mismatch between the size dependence of wages and labor, so that in contemporary US cities productivity increases by about 11% with each doubling of their population. Moreover, deviations from the average scale dependence of economic output, capturing the effect of local factors, including history and other local contingencies, also manifest surprising regularities. Although, productivity is maximized by the combination of high wages and low labor input, high productivity cities show invariably high wages and high levels of employment relative to their size expectation. Conversely, low productivity cities show both low wages and employment. These results shed new light on the microscopic processes that underlie urban economic productivity, explain the emergence of effective aggregate urban economic output models in terms of labor and capital inputs and may inform the development of economic theory related to growth.

Caught between the global economy and local bureaucracy: the barriers to good waste management practice in South Africa

Empirical research shows that good waste management practice in South Africa is not always under the volitional control of those tasked with its implementation. While intention to act may exist, external factors, within the distal and proximal context, create barriers to waste behaviour. In addition, these barriers differ for respondents in municipalities, private industry and private waste companies. The main barriers to implementing good waste management practice experienced by respondents in municipalities included insufficient funding for waste management and resultant lack of resources; insufficient waste knowledge; political interference in decision-making; a slow decision-making process; lack of perceived authority to act by waste staff; and a low priority afforded to waste. Barriers experienced by respondents in private industry included insufficient funding for waste and the resultant lack of resources; insufficient waste knowledge; and government bureaucracy. Whereas, barriers experienced in private waste companies included increasing costs; government bureaucracy; global markets; and availability of waste for recycling. The results suggest that respondents in public and private waste organizations are subject to different structural forces that shape, enable and constrain waste behaviour.

An assessment of China's PM10-related health economic losses in 2009

Using GIS software and based on exposure-response functions, this paper estimated the health-related economic losses that China suffered in 2009 due to the presence of particulate matter (PM(10)). The results show that China suffered a health-related economic loss due to PM(10) of US$ 106.5 billion, or 2.1% of China's GDP, for the year 2009. Some urban areas, including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Changsha, reported large health-related economic losses due to PM(10), with a value of US$ 1.5 million per square kilometre or greater. Some parts of Beijing, Ji'nan, and Chongqing reported health-related economic losses due to PM(10) as being greater than 4% of the 2009 GDP.

Assessing sustainability in real urban systems: the Greater Cincinnati Metropolitan Area in Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana

Urban systems have a number of factors (i.e., economic, social, and environmental) that can potentially impact growth, change, and transition. As such, assessing and managing these systems is a complex challenge. While, tracking trends of key variables may provide some insight, identifying the critical characteristics that truly impact the dynamic behavior of these systems is difficult. As an integrated approach to evaluate real urban systems, this work contributes to the research on scientific techniques for assessing sustainability. Specifically, it proposes a practical methodology based on the estimation of dynamic order, for identifying stable and unstable periods of sustainable or unsustainable trends with Fisher Information (FI) metric. As a test case, the dynamic behavior of the City, Suburbs, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) of Cincinnati was evaluated by using 29 social and 11 economic variables to characterize each system from 1970 to 2009. Air quality variables were also selected to describe the MSA's environmental component (1980-2009). Results indicate systems dynamic started to change from about 1995 for the social variables and about 2000 for the economic and environmental characteristics.

Context-specific energy strategies: coupling energy system visions with feasible implementation scenarios

Conventional energy strategy defines an energy system vision (the goal), energy scenarios with technical choices and an implementation mechanism (such as economic incentives). Due to the lead of a generic vision, when applied in a specific regional context, such a strategy can deviate from the optimal one with, for instance, the lowest environmental impacts. This paper proposes an approach for developing energy strategies by simultaneously, rather than sequentially, combining multiple energy system visions and technically feasible, cost-effective energy scenarios that meet environmental constraints at a given place. The approach is illustrated by developing a residential heat supply strategy for a Swiss region. In the analyzed case, urban municipalities should focus on reducing heat demand, and rural municipalities should focus on harvesting local energy sources, primarily wood. Solar thermal units are cost-competitive in all municipalities, and their deployment should be fostered by information campaigns. Heat pumps and building refurbishment are not competitive; thus, economic incentives are essential, especially for urban municipalities. In rural municipalities, wood is cost-competitive, and community-based initiatives are likely to be most successful. Thus, the paper shows that energy strategies should be spatially differentiated. The suggested approach can be transferred to other regions and spatial scales.

Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: a comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies

Many American and European cities have to deal with demographic and economic trajectories leading to urban shrinkage. According to official data, 13% of urban regions in the US and 54% of those in the EU have lost population in recent years. However, the extent and spatial distribution of declining populations differ significantly between Europe and the US. In Germany, the situation is driven by falling birth rates and the effects of German reunification. In the US, shrinkage is basically related to long-term industrial transformation. But the challenges of shrinking cities seldom appeared on the agendas of politicians and urban planners until recently. This article provides a critical overview of the development paths and local strategies of four shrinking cities: Schwedt and Dresden in eastern Germany; Youngstown and Pittsburgh in the US. A typology of urban growth and shrinkage, from economic and demographic perspectives, enables four types of city to be differentiated and the differences between the US and eastern Germany to be discussed. The article suggests that a new transatlantic debate on policy and planning strategies for restructuring shrinking cities is needed to overcome the dominant growth orientation that in most cases intensifies the negative consequences of shrinkage.