Life Course Air Pollution Exposure and Cognitive Decline: Modelled Historical Air Pollution Data and the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936

BACKGROUND

Air pollution has been consistently linked with dementia and cognitive decline. However, it is unclear whether risk is accumulated through long-term exposure or whether there are sensitive/critical periods. A key barrier to clarifying this relationship is the dearth of historical air pollution data.

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate the feasibility of modelling historical air pollution data and using them in epidemiologicalmodels.

METHODS

Using the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model, we modelled historical fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations for the years 1935, 1950, 1970, 1980, and 1990 and combined these with contemporary modelled data from 2001 to estimate life course exposure in 572 participants in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 with lifetime residential history recorded. Linear regression and latent growth models were constructed using cognitive ability (IQ) measured by the Moray House Test at the ages of 11, 70, 76, and 79 years to explore the effects of historical air pollution exposure. Covariates included sex, IQ at age 11 years, social class, and smoking.

RESULTS

Higher air pollution modelled for 1935 (when participants would have been in utero) was associated with worse change in IQ from age 11-70 years (β = -0.006, SE = 0.002, p = 0.03) but not cognitive trajectories from age 70-79 years (p > 0.05). There was no support for other critical/sensitive periods of exposure or an accumulation of risk (all p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The life course paradigm is essential in understanding cognitive decline and this is the first study to examine life course air pollution exposure in relation to cognitive health.

A chronology of global air quality

Air pollution has been recognized as a threat to human health since the time of Hippocrates, ca 400 BC. Successive written accounts of air pollution occur in different countries through the following two millennia until measurements, from the eighteenth century onwards, show the growing scale of poor air quality in urban centres and close to industry, and the chemical characteristics of the gases and particulate matter. The industrial revolution accelerated both the magnitude of emissions of the primary pollutants and the geographical spread of contributing countries as highly polluted cities became the defining issue, culminating with the great smog of London in 1952. Europe and North America dominated emissions and suffered the majority of adverse effects until the latter decades of the twentieth century, by which time the transboundary issues of acid rain, forest decline and ground-level ozone became the main environmental and political air quality issues. As controls on emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides (SO₂ and NO_x) began to take effect in Europe and North America, emissions in East and South Asia grew strongly and dominated global emissions by the early years of the twenty-first century. The effects of air quality on human health had also returned to the top of the priorities by 2000 as new epidemiological evidence emerged. By this time, extensive networks of surface measurements and satellite remote sensing provided global measurements of both primary and secondary pollutants. Global emissions of SO₂ and NO_x peaked, respectively, in ca 1990 and 2018 and have since declined to 2020 as a result of widespread emission controls. By contrast, with a lack of actions to abate ammonia, global emissions have continued to grow. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Concentrations of criteria pollutants in the contiguous U.S., 1979 - 2015: Role of prediction model parsimony in integrated empirical geographic regression

National-scale empirical models for air pollution can include hundreds of geographic variables. The impact of model parsimony (i.e., how model performance differs for a large versus small number of covariates) has not been systematically explored. We aim to (1) build annual-average integrated empirical geographic (IEG) regression models for the contiguous U.S. for six criteria pollutants during 1979–2015; (2) explore systematically the impact on model performance of the number of variables selected for inclusion in a model; and (3) provide publicly available model predictions. We compute annual-average concentrations from regulatory monitoring data for PM₁₀, PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, CO, and ozone at all monitoring sites for 1979–2015. We also use ~350 geographic characteristics at each location including measures of traffic, land use, land cover, and satellite-based estimates of air pollution. We then develop IEG models, employing universal kriging and summary factors estimated by partial least squares (PLS) of geographic variables. For all pollutants and years, we compare three approaches for choosing variables to include in the PLS model: (1) no variables, (2) a limited number of variables selected from the full set by forward selection, and (3) all variables. We evaluate model performance using 10-fold cross-validation (CV) using conventional and spatially-clustered test data. Models using 3 to 30 variables selected from the full set generally have the best performance across all pollutants and years (median R² conventional [clustered] CV: 0.66 [0.47]) compared to models with no (0.37 [0]) or all variables (0.64 [0.27]). Concentration estimates for all Census Blocks reveal generally decreasing concentrations over several decades with local heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that national prediction models can be built by empirically selecting only a small number of important variables to provide robust concentration estimates. Model estimates are freely available online.

The impact of the 1952 London smog event and its relevance for current wood-smoke abatement strategies in Australia

There is a certain complacency about air pollution in rural towns in Australia. An image of crystal clear skies seems to dominate general perceptions, and few locations actually monitor air pollution levels. Nevertheless, where measurements have been made, particulates have been shown to be the major type of air pollution, and they do reach levels expected to impact on human health. In this article, the contemporary attitudes and behaviour of the government and the population in rural and regional Australia are shown to have a strong resemblance to those that were prevalent prior to the smog events in London in December 1952. Wood smoke poses similar significant health issues in many countries. Insights obtained from the London events, together with more recent research results, are applied to the Australian situation to suggest policy options that are likely to be successful in overcoming the health effects of particulate pollution. Implications: The contemporary attitudes and behaviour of the government and the population in rural and regional Australia are shown to have a strong resemblance to those that were prevalent prior to the smog events in London in December 1952. Insights obtained from the London event of 1952, together with more recent research results, are applied to the Australian situation to suggest policy options that are likely to be successful in overcoming the health effects of particulate pollution.

Two Cheers for Air Pollution Control: Triumphs and Limits of the Mid-Century Fight for Air Quality

This article analyzes the early years of 20th-century air pollution control in Los Angeles. In both scholarship and public memory, mid-century efforts at the regional level were overshadowed by major federal developments, namely the Clean Air Act and creation of the US Environmental Protection Agency in 1970. Yet the mid-century local experience was highly consequential and presaged many subsequent challenges that persist today. The article begins with an exploration of the existential, on-the-ground misery of smog in Los Angeles during the 1940s and 1950s. The article examines the role that scientific evidence on smog did and did not play in regulation, the reasons smog control galvanized support across various constituencies in the region, and, finally, some of mid-century air pollution's limits.

Atmospheric deposition and exceedances of critical loads from 1800-2025 for the conterminous United States

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) has increased dramatically over pre-industrial levels, with many potential impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Quantitative thresholds, termed "critical loads" (CLs), have been developed to estimate the deposition rate above which damage is thought to occur. However, there remains no comprehensive comparison of when, where, and over what time periods individual CLs have been exceeded. We addressed this knowledge gap by combining several published data sources for historical and contemporary deposition, and overlaying these on six CL types from the National Critical Loads Database (NCLDv2.5; terrestrial acidification, aquatic acidification, lichen, nitrate leaching, plant community composition, and forest-tree health) to examine exceedances from 1800 to 2011. We expressed CLs as the minimum, 10th, and 50th percentiles within 12-km grid cells. Minimum CLs were relatively uniform across the country (200-400 eq·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 ), and have been exceeded for decades beginning in the early 20th century. The area exceeding minimum CLs peaked in the 1970s and 1980s, exposing 300,000 to 3 million km² (depending on the CL type) to harmful levels of deposition, with a total area exceeded of 5.8 million km² (~70% of the conterminous United States). Since then, deposition levels have dropped, especially for S, with modest reductions in exceedance by 2011 for all CL types, totaling 5.2 million km² in exceedance. The 10th and 50th percentile CLs followed similar trends, but were not consistently available at the 12-km grid scale. We also examined near-term future deposition and exceedances in 2025 under current air quality regulations, and under various scenarios of climate change and additional nitrogen management controls. Current regulations were projected to reduce exceedances of any CL from 5.2 million km² in 2011 to 4.8 million km² in 2025. None of the additional N management or climate scenarios significantly affected areal exceedances, although exceedance severity declined. In total, it is clear that many CLs have been exceeded for decades, and are likely to remain so in the short term under current policies. Additionally, we suggest many areas for improvement to enhance our understanding of deposition and its effects to support informed decision making.

Medical Experts and Agnotology in the Fumes Controversy of the Huelva Copper Mines (1888-1890)

Huelva's copper mines (Spain) have been active for centuries but in the second half of the nineteenth century extractive activities in Riotinto, Tharsis, and other mines in the region were intensified in order to reach world leadership. The method used in these mines for copper extraction from low grade ores generated continuous emissions of fumes that were extremely controversial. The inhabitants had complained about the fumes for decades but as activity intensified so did complaints. The killing of anti-fumes demonstrators in 1888 led to the passing of a Royal Decree banning the open-air roasting of ore and to the drafting of numerous reports on the hazards of the fumes. Major state and provincial medical institutions, as well as renowned hygienists and engineers, took part in the assessment, contributing to a scientific controversy especially rich in content. In my paper I will analyse the production and circulation of knowledge and ignorance about the impact of fumes on public health, as well as the role of medical experts and expertise in the controversy. The analysis will focus on the reports drafted between the 1888 ban and its 1890 repeal, and will show the changing nature of the expert assessment and the numerous paths followed by experts in producing ignorance. The paper will conclude by considering other stakeholders, who may shed some light on the reasons behind the performance of the medical experts.

A chronology of ratios between black smoke and PM10 and PM2.5 in the context of comparison of air pollution epidemiology concentration-response functions

BACKGROUND

For many air pollution epidemiological studies in Europe, 'black smoke' (BS) was the only measurement available to quantify ambient particulate matter (PM), particularly for exposures prior to the mid-1990s when quantification via the PM₁₀ and/or PM_2.5 metrics was introduced. The aim of this work was to review historic BS and PM measurements to allow comparison of health concentration-response functions (CRF) derived using BS as the measure of exposure with CRFs derived using PM₁₀ or PM_2.5.

METHODS

The literature was searched for quantitative information on measured ratios of BS:PM₁₀, BS:PM_2.5, and chemical composition of PM; with specific focus on the United Kingdom (UK) between 1970 and the early 2000s when BS measurements were discontinued.

RESULTS

The average BS:PM₁₀ ratio in urban background air was just below unity at the start of the 1970s, decreased rapidly to ≈ 0.7 in the mid-1970s and to ≈ 0.5 at the end of the 1970s, with continued smaller declines in the 1980s, and was within the range 0.2-0.4 by the end of the 1990s. The limited data for the BS:PM_2.5 ratio suggest it equalled or exceeded unity at the start of the 1970s, declined to ≈ 0.7 by the end of the 1970s, with slower decline thereafter to a range 0.4-0.65 by the end of the 1990s. For an epidemiological study that presents a CRF _BS value, the corresponding CRF _PM10 value can be estimated as R _BS:PM10 × CRF _BS where R _BS:PM10 is the BS:PM₁₀ concentration ratio, if the toxicity of PM₁₀ is assumed due only to the component quantified by a BS measurement. In the general case of some (but unknown) contribution of toxicity from non-BS components of PM₁₀ then CRF _PM10 > R _BS:PM10 × CRF _BS, with CRF _PM10 exceeding CRF_BS if the toxicity of the other components in PM₁₀ is greater than the toxicity of the component to which the BS metric is sensitive. Similar analyses were applied to relationships between CRF _PM2.5 and CRF _BS.

CONCLUSIONS

Application of this analysis to example published CRF _BS values for short and long-term health effects of PM suggest health effects from other components in the PM mixture in addition to the fine black particles characterised by BS.

Emissions estimates of carbon tetrachloride for 1992-2014 in China

Discrepancies in emission estimates of carbon tetrachloride (CCl₄, CTC), between bottom-up and top-down methods, have been shown since the 1990s at both the global and regional scale. This study estimates the emissions of China from 1992 to 2014 based on emission functions and aggregated activity information given reasonable uncertainties. The results show that emissions increase from 7.3 Gg/yr (5.6-9.1 Gg/yr at 95% confidential interval) to 14.0 (9.1-19.5) Gg/yr with a growth rate of 6.7 (1.9-11.4) %/yr during 1992-2002 and then decrease to a minimum of 4.3 (1.9-8.0) Gg/yr in 2011. More than 54% of the emissions during 1992-2009 are from the process agents sector. The estimates are comparable with those of other studies and those in this study based on observations during 2011-2014 using the interspecies correlation method. China's contribution to global emissions increases from 7.5% to 19.5% during 1992-2009, but the contribution is reduced to 9.9% and 8.0% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of compliance with the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent Amendments and Adjustments, whereby CTC emissions are phased-out. The results of this study are beneficial for narrowing the gap between bottom-up estimates and top-down emission calculations of CTC in China.

'Every breath we take: the lifelong impact of air pollution' - a call for action

Air pollution has become one of the major risks to human health because of the progressive increase in the use of vehicles powered by fossil fuels. While the risks of air pollution to health were thought to have been brought under control by the Clean Air Acts of the 1950s and 1960s, the situation of air pollution in the UK has now deteriorated to a point where it is contributing to 40,000 excess deaths each year. Here the findings of the RCP/RCPCH's 2015/16 Working Party on Air Pollution and Health are described and what actions now need to be taken. The UK needs to take a lead and introduce a new Clean Air Act that deals with the vehicle sources of pollution recognising that the toxic particles and gases emitted are effecting individuals from conception to death. This mandates urgent action by government both central and local, but also by all of us who have now become so dependent on road transport.

Assessment of vehicle emission programs in China during 1998-2013: Achievement, challenges and implications

China has been embracing rapid motorization since the 1990s, and vehicles have become one of the major sources of air pollution problems. Since the late 1990s, thanks to the international experience, China has adopted comprehensive control measures to mitigate vehicle emissions. This study employs a local emission model (EMBEV) to assess China's first fifteen-year (1998-2013) efforts in controlling vehicles emissions. Our results show that China's total annual vehicle emissions in 2013 were 4.16 million tons (Mt) of HC, 27.4 Mt of CO, 7.72 Mt of NOX, and 0.37 Mt of PM2.5, respectively. Although vehicle emissions are substantially reduced relative to the without control scenarios, we still observe significantly higher emission density in East China than in developed countries with longer histories of vehicle emission control. This study further informs China's policy-makers of the prominent challenges to control vehicle emissions in the future. First, unlike other major air pollutants, total NOX emissions have rapidly increased due to a surge of diesel trucks and the postponed China IV standard nationwide. Simultaneous implementation of fuel quality improvements and vehicle-engine emission standards will be of great importance to alleviate NOX emissions for diesel fleets. Second, the enforcement of increasingly stringent standards should include strict oversight of type-approval conformity, in-use complacence and durability, which would help reduce gross emitters of PM2.5 that are considerable among in-use diesel fleets at the present. Third, this study reveals higher HC emissions than previous results and indicates evaporative emissions may have been underestimated. Considering that China's overall vehicle ownership is far from saturation, persistent efforts are required through economic tools, traffic management and emissions regulations to lower vehicle-use intensity and limit both exhaust and evaporative emissions. Furthermore, in light of the complex technology for emerging new energy vehicles, their real-world emissions need to be adequately evaluated before massive promotion.

Détente from the Air: Monitoring Air Pollution during the Cold War

During the period of détente in the 1970s, a Norwegian proposal to construct an air pollution monitoring network for the European continent resulted in the first concrete collaboration between the communist and capitalist blocs after the 1975 Helsinki Accords. Known as the "European-wide monitoring programme" or EMEP, the network earned considerable praise from diplomats for facilitating cooperation across the Iron Curtain. Yet as this article argues, EMEP was strongly influenced by the politics of détente and the constraints of the Cold War even as it helped to decrease tensions. Concerns about national security and sharing data with the enemy shaped both the construction of the monitoring network and the modeling of pollution transport. The article also proposes that environmental monitoring systems like EMEP reveal the ways in which observational technologies can affect conceptions of the natural world and the role of science in public policy.

Atmospheric pollution history at Linfen (China) uncovered by magnetic and chemical parameters of sediments from a water reservoir

We studied magnetic and chemical parameters of sediments from sediments of a water reservoir at Linfen (China) in order to quantitatively reconstruct the atmospheric pollution history in this region. The results show that the main magnetic phases are magnetite and maghemite originating from the surrounding catchment and from anthropogenic activities, and there is a significant positive relationship between magnetic concentration parameters and heavy metals concentrations, indicating that magnetic proxies can be used to monitor the anthropogenic pollution. In order to uncover the atmospheric pollution history, we combined the known events of environmental improvement with variations of magnetic susceptibility (χ) and heavy metals along the cores to obtain a detailed chronological framework. In addition, air comprehensive pollution index (ACPI) was reconstructed from regression equation among magnetic and chemical parameters as well as atmospheric monitoring data. Based on these results, the atmospheric pollution history was successfully reconstructed.

[THE HANOVERIAN SCHOLAR AND THE DOCTOR OF THE PEASANTS]

Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz and Bernardino Ramazzini met in Modena in autumn 1689, and made friends. Rereading their correspondence and finding other coeval documents, the author reconstructs a scientific relation forgotten by historians. They not only discussed on air pollution, artesian wells and barometric forecast, but - more generally - favored the foundation of social medicine on epidemiology. Hence the Leibnizian contribution to the European fortune of Third Hippocrates.

Relationship between air pollutants and economic development of the provincial capital cities in China during the past decade

With the economic development of China, air pollutants are also growing rapidly in recent decades, especially in big cities of the country. To understand the relationship between economic condition and air pollutants in big cities, we analysed the socioeconomic indictors such as Gross Regional Product per capita (GRP per capita), the concentration of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2) and the air pollution index (API) from 2003 to 2012 in 31 provincial capitals of mainland China. The three main industries had a quadratic correlation with NO2, but a negative relationship with PM10 and SO2. The concentration of air pollutants per ten thousand yuan decreased with the multiplying of GRP in the provincial cities. The concentration of air pollutants and API in the provincial capital cities showed a declining trend or inverted-U trend with the rise of GRP per capita, which provided a strong evidence for the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), that the environmental quality first declines, then improves, with the income growth. The results of this research improved our understanding of the alteration of atmospheric quality with the increase of social economy and demonstrated the feasibility of sustainable development for China.

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of the benefits of past control measures.

Past and future cadmium emissions from municipal solid-waste incinerators in Japan for the assessment of cadmium control policy

Cadmium (Cd) is a harmful pollutant emitted from municipal solid-waste incinerators (MSWIs). Cd stack emissions from MSWIs have been estimated between 1970 and 2030 in Japan. The aims of this study are to quantify emitted Cd by category and to analyze Cd control policies to reduce emissions. Emissions were estimated using a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) that took into account representative waste treatment flows and historical changes in emission factors. This work revealed that the emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1t) and were ten times those in 2010 (1.2 t). Emission from MSWIs was two-thirds of that from non-ferrous smelting in 2010. The main Cd emission source was pigment use in the 1970s, but after 2000 it had shifted to nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) batteries. Future emissions were estimated for 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, an intensive collection of used Ni-Cd batteries and a ban on any future use of Ni-Cd batteries will reduce emissions by 0.09 and 0.3 1t, respectively, in 2030. This approach enables us to identify the major Cd emission source from MSWIs, and to prioritize the possible Cd control policies.

Evidence of recovery of Juniperus virginiana trees from sulfur pollution after the Clean Air Act

Using dendroisotopic techniques, we show the recovery of Juniperus virginiana L. (eastern red cedar) trees in the Central Appalachian Mountains from decades of acidic pollution. Acid deposition over much of the 20th century reduced stomatal conductance of leaves, thereby increasing intrinsic water-use efficiency of the Juniperus trees. These data indicate that the stomata of Juniperus may be more sensitive to acid deposition than to increasing atmospheric CO2. A breakpoint in the 100-y δ(13)C tree ring chronology occurred around 1980, as the legacy of sulfur dioxide emissions declined following the enactment of the Clean Air Act in 1970, indicating a gradual increase in stomatal conductance (despite rising levels of atmospheric CO2) and a concurrent increase in photosynthesis related to decreasing acid deposition and increasing atmospheric CO2. Tree ring δ(34)S shows a synchronous change in the sources of sulfur used at the whole-tree level that indicates a reduced anthropogenic influence. The increase in growth and the δ(13)C and δ(34)S trends in the tree ring chronology of these Juniperus trees provide evidence for a distinct physiological response to changes in atmospheric SO2 emissions since ∼1980 and signify the positive impacts of landmark environmental legislation to facilitate recovery of forest ecosystems from acid deposition.

Comparing early twentieth century and present-day atmospheric pollution in SW France: A story of lichens

Lichens have long been known to be good indicators of air quality and atmospheric deposition. Xanthoria parietina was selected to investigate past (sourced from a herbarium) and present-day trace metal pollution in four sites from South-West France (close to Albi). Enrichment factors, relationships between elements and hierarchical classification indicated that the atmosphere was mainly impacted by coal combustion (as shown by As, Pb or Cd contamination) during the early twentieth century, whereas more recently, another mixture of pollutants (e.g. Sb, Sn, Pb and Cu) from local factories and car traffic has emerged. The Rare Earth Elements (REE) and other lithogenic elements indicated a higher dust content in the atmosphere in the early twentieth century and a specific lithological local signature. In addition to long-range atmospheric transport, local urban emissions had a strong impact on trace element contamination registered in lichens, particularly for contemporary data.

Evidence of global-scale As, Mo, Sb, and Tl atmospheric pollution in the antarctic snow

We report the first comprehensive and reliable time series for As, Mo, Sb, and Tl in the snowpack from Dome Fuji in the central East Antarctic Plateau. Our results show significant enrichment of these elements due to either anthropogenic activities or large volcanic eruptions during the past 50 years. With respect to the values reported from 1960 to 1964, we observed the maximum increases in crustal enrichment factors (EFs) for As (a factor of ~15), Mo (~4), Sb (~4), and Tl (~2) during the period between the 1970s and 1990s, reflecting the global dispersion of anthropogenic pollutants of these elements, even to the most remote areas on Earth. Such enrichments are likely related to emissions of trace elements from nonferrous metal smelting and fossil fuel combustion processes in South America, especially in Chile. A drastic decrease in the As concentration and its EF values was observed after the year 2000 in response to the introduction of environmental regulations in the 1990s to reduce As emissions from the copper industry, primarily in Chile. The observed decrease suggests that governmental regulations for pollution control are effective in reducing air pollution at both the regional and global level.

Historical carbon footprinting and implications for sustainability planning: a case study of the Pittsburgh region

This study estimates fossil-based CO(2) emissions and energy use from 1900-2000 for Allegheny County, PA. Total energy use and emissions increased from 1900 to 1970, reflecting the significant industrial, economic, and population growth that occurred in Allegheny County. From 1970 to 2000, Allegheny County experienced a 30% decrease in total emissions and energy use from peak values, primarily because of a decline in industrial activity (40% decrease in value added) and the loss of a quarter of its population. Despite these dramatic economic and demographic transitions, per capita emissions remained stable from 1970 to 2000, buoyed by relatively stable or slightly increasing emissions in the commercial and transportation sectors. Allegheny County's history suggests the scale of change needed to achieve local emissions reductions may be significant; given years of major technological, economic, and demographic changes, per capita emissions in 1940 were nearly the same in 2000. Most local governments are planning emissions reductions rates that exceed 1% per year, which deviate significantly from historical trends. Our results suggest additional resources and improved planning paradigms are likely necessary to achieve significant emissions reductions, especially for areas where emissions are still increasing.

Global emission of black carbon from motor vehicles from 1960 to 2006

Black carbon (BC) is a key short-lived climate change forcer. Motor vehicles are important sources of BC in the environment. BC emission factors (EF(BC)), defined as BC emitted per mass of fuel consumed, are critical in the development of BC emission inventories for motor vehicles. However, measured EF(BC) for motor vehicles vary in orders of magnitude, which is one of the major sources of uncertainty in the estimation of emissions. In this study, the main factors affecting EF(BC) for motor vehicles were investigated based on 385 measured EF(BC) collected from the literature. It was found that EF(BC) for motor vehicles of a given year in a particular country can be predicted using gross domestic product per capita (GDP(c)), temperature, and the year a country's GDP(c) reached 3000 USD (Y(3000)). GDP(c) represents technical progress in terms of emission control, while Y(3000) suggest the technical transfer from developed to developing countries. For global BC emission calculations, 87 and 64% of the variation can be eliminated for diesel and gasoline vehicles by using this model. In addition to a reduction in uncertainty, the model can be used to develop a global on-road vehicle BC emission inventory with spatial and temporal resolution.

Historical estimation of carbonaceous aerosol emissions from biomass open burning in China for the period 1990-2005

Multi-year inventories of carbonaceous aerosol emissions from biomass open burning at a high spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° have been constructed in China using GIS methodology for the period 1990-2005. Black carbon (BC) emissions have increased by 383.03% at an annual average rate of 25.54% from 14.05 Gg in 1990 to 67.87 Gg in 2005; while organic carbon (OC) emissions have increased by 365.43% from 57.37 Gg in 1990 to 267.00 Gg in 2005. Through the estimation period, OC/BC ratio for biomass burning was averagely 4.09, suggesting that it was not the preferred control source from a climatic perspective. Spatial distribution of BC and OC emissions were similar, mainly concentrated in three northeastern provinces, central provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui and Henan, and southern provinces of Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan and Sichuan basin, covering 24.89% of China's territory, but were responsible for 63.38% and 67.55% of national BC and OC emissions, respectively.

Impact of air pollution control measures and weather conditions on asthma during the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing

The alternative transportation strategy implemented during the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing provided an opportunity to study the impact of the control measures and weather conditions on air quality and asthma morbidity. An ecological study compared the 41 days of the Olympic Games (8 August-17 September 2008) to a baseline period (1-30 June). Also, in order to emphasize the impact of weather conditions on air quality, a pollution linking meteorological index (Plam) was introduced to represent the air pollution meteorological condition. Our study showed that the average number of outpatient visits for asthma was 12.5 per day at baseline and 7.3 per day during the Olympics-a 41.6% overall decrease. Compared with the baseline, the Games were associated with a significant reduction in asthma visits (RR 0.58, 95%CI: 0.52-0.65). At 16.5 visits per day, asthma visits were also significantly higher, during the pre-Olympic period (RR 1.32, 95% CI: 1.15-1.52). The study also showed that the RR of asthma events on a given day, as well as the average daily peak ozone concentration during the preceding 48-72 h, increased at cumulative ozone concentrations of 70 to 100 ppb and 100 ppb or more compared with ozone concentrations of less than 70 ppb (P < 0.05). We concluded that along with "good" weather conditions, efforts to reduce traffic congestion in Beijing during the Olympic Games were associated with a prolonged reduction in air pollution and significantly lower rates of adult asthma events. These data provide support for efforts to reduce air pollution and improve health via reductions in motor vehicle traffic.

Creating an integrated historical record of extreme particulate air pollution events in Australian cities from 1994 to 2007

Epidemiological studies of exposure to vegetation fire smoke are often limited by the availability of accurate exposure data. This paper describes a systematic framework for retrospectively identifying the cause of air pollution events to facilitate a long, multicenter analysis of the public health effects of vegetation fire smoke pollution in Australia. Pollution events were statistically defined as any day at or above the 95th percentile of the 24-hr average concentration of particulate matter (PM). These were identified for six cities from three distinct ecoclimatic regions of Australia. The dates of each event were then crosschecked against a range of information sources, including online newspaper archives, government and research agency records, satellite imagery, and aerosol optical thickness measures to identify the cause for the excess particulate pollution. Pollution events occurred most frequently during summer for cities in subtropical and arid regions and during winter for cities in temperate regions. A cause for high PM on 67% of days examined in the city of Sydney was found, and 94% of these could be attributed to landscape fire smoke. Results were similar for cities in other subtropical and arid locations. Identification of the cause of pollution events was much lower in colder temperate regions where fire activity is less frequent. Bushfires were the most frequent cause of extreme pollution events in cities located in subtropical and arid regions of Australia. Although identification of pollution episodes was greatly improved by the use of multiple sources of information, satellite imagery was the most useful tool for identifying bushfire smoke pollution events.

[Neo-'hippocratism' in Bernardino Ramazzini]

Neo-hippocratism is a rational and mechanic method to explain pathological phenomena and discover the causes of diseases. Bernardino Ramazzini uses Hippocratic empirical observation to investigate the relations between the alterations of the air - due to mephitic vapours, of organic and inorganic origin - and the development of pathological processes. His notion of corruption of the atmosphere as the origin of epidemics and specific diseases, and that of prevention as the main strategy of modern medicine, is developed in medical literature and in the public medicine projects of the end of the Seventeenth century.

Towards "a different kind of beauty": responses to coal-based pollution in the Witbank coalfield between 1903 and 1948

This article assesses the changing conceptions of the environmental impact of South African coal mining in the first half of the twentieth century, with special reference to the Witbank coalfield in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa. The anticipated development of the emerging coal town of Witbank was founded on the growing demand for coal. As Witbank's local landscape became visibly scarred, coal-based pollution was continually challenged and redefined. In an attempt to market electricity, and appease the doubts of potential consumers, attempts were made by Escom to romanticise features of Witbank's industrialised environment. Once mines were decommissioned, they were abandoned. Coal production increased dramatically during the Second World War, which provided an economic windfall for the local electrical, steel and chemical industries, placing undue pressure on the coal industry to step up production. The severe damage caused by coal mining during this period resulted in the ecological devastation of affected landscapes. The findings of an inter-departmental committee established to conduct research during the mid-1940s revealed the gravity of coal-based pollution, and set a precedent in the way that the state conceived of the impact of industry and mining. The report of this committee was completed in the wake of the war, by which time the Witbank coalfield had become one of the most heavily polluted regions of South Africa.

Corruption and air pollution in Europe

This paper examines how the effectiveness of regulatory framework influences levels of sulphur emissions in a scenario where, to reduce its (emission-) tax payments, a polluting firm may under-report emissions level at the risk of being audited and fined. First, a model to explain how changes in regulatory framework (e.g., audit effectiveness) and transboundary spillovers affect both actual and reported emissions is developed. Then the theoretical predictions using data for 39 European countries from 1999 to 2003 are tested and inferences about true emission levels are made. The empirical analysis supports the theoretical predictions with significant implications for the interpretation of pollution data reported to international monitoring agencies. Countries with effective regulation are likely to have relatively high reported emissions of sulphur. But this should not automatically be interpreted as weak environmental performance, because their actual pollution levels are likely to be lower than in nations with less effective regulation.

Definition and insertion of the GSPC in the political context of Mexico

Mexico as a megadiverse country houses between 6 and 8% of the world's flora. However, the Mexican flora is facing challenges, including the presence of at least 981 threatened plant species and 618 exotic plant species, habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation of natural resources and the adverse effects of climate change, which are compromising its conservation and sustainable use. Mexico has been actively involved in the development and update of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). As a party to CBD, Mexico has established a Coordinating Committee for the Mexican Strategy for Plant Conservation (MSPC), which has adapted the GSPC to fit national needs and drafted a number of projects, indicators, means of verification and actors to ensure that the MSPC, as a public policy tool, really drives conservation and sustainable use actions among all sectors and lasts beyond the current administration. An agenda is being developed with activities that include the following: approaching Congress, identifying the relevance of the MSPC in the National Development Plan and the Mexican Biodiversity Strategy, making use of current environmental policies and an aggressive awareness programme. The MSPC includes simultaneous programmes of technical and political work.

Economic activity and trends in ambient air pollution

BACKGROUND

One challenge in assessing the health effects of human exposure to air pollution in epidemiologic studies is the lack of widespread historical air pollutant monitoring data with which to characterize past exposure levels.

OBJECTIVES

Given the availability of long-term economic data, we relate economic activity levels to patterns in vehicle-related particulate matter (PM) over a 30-year period in New Jersey, USA, to provide insight into potential historical surrogate markers of air pollution.

METHODS

We used statewide unemployment and county-level trucking industry characteristics to estimate historical coefficient of haze (COH), a marker of vehicle-related PM predominantly from diesel exhaust. A total of 5,920 observations were included across 25 different locations in New Jersey between 1971 and 2003.

RESULTS

A mixed-modeling approach was employed to estimate the impact of economic indicators on measured COH. The model explained approximately 50% of the variability in COH as estimated by the overall R2 value. Peaks and lows in unemployment tracked negatively with similar extremes in COH, whereas employment in the trucking industry was positively associated with COH. Federal air quality regulations also played a large and significant role in reducing COH levels over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

This new approach outlines an alternative method to reconstruct historical exposures that may greatly aid epidemiologic research on specific causes of health effects from urban air pollution. Economic activity data provide a potential surrogate marker of changes in exposure levels over time in the absence of direct monitoring data for chronic disease studies, but more research in this area is needed.

Globalisation and climate change in Asia: the urban health impact

Asia's economic development successes will create new policy areas to address, as the advances made through globalisation create greater climate change challenges, particularly the impact on urban health. Poverty eradication and higher standards of living both increase demand on resources. Globalisation increases inequalities and those who are currently the losers will carry the greatest burden of the costs in the form of the negative effects of climate change and the humanitarian crises that will ensue. Of four major climate change challenges affecting the environment and health, two—urban air pollution and waste management—can be mitigated by policy change and technological innovation if sufficient resources are allocated. Because of the urban bias in the development process, these challenges will probably register on policy makers' agenda. The second two major challenges—floods and drought—are less amenable to policy and technological solutions: many humanitarian emergency challenges lie ahead. This article describes the widely varying impact of both globalisation and climate change across Asia. The greatest losers are those who flee one marginal location, the arid inland areas, only to settle in another marginal location in the flood prone coastal slums. Effective preparation is required, and an effective response when subsequent humanitarian crises occur.

Public health in an industrial community: Port Kembla, 1907-2007

This paper considers how various health agencies in New South Wales have responded to the issue of air pollution, particularly in Port Kembla since the end of World War II when levels rose dramatically and residents began calling for something to be done. Several shortcomings surrounding the production of the report of the NSW government-appointed Smoke Abatement Committee in the 1950s created the foundation for a tradition of inadequate research into the effects of industrial contamination on public health, and of legislation which sought to address environmental amenity rather than risks to public health. The reopening of a copper smelter in Port Kembla in 1997 demonstrated a continued policy to relegate the impacts on public health to a low priority consideration and is a damning reflection on more than fifty years of inquiry.

IN VITRO EFFECTS OF WATER-SOLUBLE METALS PRESENT IN UK PARTICULATE MATTER

The water-soluble metal content of 1950s London smogs and modern particulate matter (PM) are associated with adverse health effects. This study aimed to elucidate the bioreactivity of these metals alone and in mixtures and to investigate the comparative bioreactivities of a surrogate mixture and a PM sample. These revealed similar bioreactivities. A bioreactivity hierarchy of these metals was established: Fe2+ > Cu2+ > Fe3+ > VO2+ > Zn2+ > As3+ = Pb2+ = Mn2+ = VO3-. Secondary components (i.e., chlorides, sulfates, nitrates) did not affect metal bioreactivity, whereas oxidation state was important. Synergism was observed between zinc and various metal ions (Cu2+, Fe3+, VO2+). In conclusion, low-valence transition metals are key to PM bioreactivity.

A little known episode in the life of the future revolutionary Fabre d'Eglantine: his involvement in mephitism

On one hand we have Philippe-François-Nazaire Fabre, known as Fabre d'Eglantine, an undistinguished playwright, who, in September 1792, during the French Revolution, was elected a member of the Convention nationale and voted for the execution of Louis XVI in January 1793. On the other hand we have Jean-Antoine-Michel-Dieudonné Janin de Combe-Blanche, one of the most famous ophthalmologists of the eighteenth century, raised to the peerage in 1787, physician to crowned heads and dignitaries of the Church. These two men were diametrically opposed, but were brought together by chance, shortly before the outbreak of the French Revolution, by a pamphlet on mephitism.

Using urban man-made ponds to reconstruct a 150-year history of air pollution in northwest England

A regional pollution history has been reconstructed for the borough of Halton (northwest England) from four urban ponds in north Cheshire and south Merseyside, using environmental analyses of lake sediment stratigraphies. Mineral magnetism, geochemistry and radiometric dating have produced profiles of pollution characteristics dating from the mid-nineteenth century to present day. These pollution profiles reflect the atmospheric deposition of a range of pollutants over 150 years of intensified industry. Distinct phases of pollution deposition and characteristics are identified reflecting: (1) intensification of industry in the nineteenth century; (2) expansion of industry during the twentieth century; (3) post 1956 Clean Air Acts. This work promotes the potential use of these pollution archives for use in epidemiology to better understand links between human health and environmental pollution, especially for diseases with long latency times, where retrospective pollution exposure assessments are important.

Historical analysis of SO2 pollution control policies in China

Coal is not only an important energy source in China but also a major source of air pollution. Because of this, China's national sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) emissions have been the highest in the world for many years, and since the 1990s, the territory of China's south and southwest has become the third largest acid-rain-prone region in the world. In order to control SO(2) emissions, the Chinese government has formulated and promulgated a series of policies and regulations, but it faces great difficulties in putting them into practice. In this retrospective look at the history of SO(2) control in China, we found that Chinese SO(2) control policies have become increasingly strict and rigid. We also found that the environmental policies and regulations are more effective when central officials consistently give environmental protection top priority. Achieving China's environmental goals, however, has been made difficult by China's economic growth. Part of this is due to the practice of environmental protection appearing in the form of an ideological "campaign" or "storm" that lacks effective economic measures. More recently, better enforcement of environmental laws and regulations has been achieved by adding environmental quality to the performance assessment metrics for leaders at all levels. To continue making advances, China needs to reinforce the economic and environmental assessments for pollution control projects and work harder to integrate economic measures into environmental protection. Nonetheless, China has a long way to go before economic growth and environmental protection are balanced.

From foetid air to filth: the cultural transformation of British epidemiological thought, ca. 1780-1848

Eighteenth-and early nineteenth-century ideas about the occurrence and spread of epidemic disease were complex and contested. Although many thought that diseases such as plague, typhus, and cholera were contagious and were communicated from person to person or via the medium of goods, others believed that they were the product of atmospheric change. Moreover, as historians have emphasized, the early nineteenth century saw a move from a multifactoral, climatic etiology toward one that prioritized specific local corruption of the atmosphere caused by putrefying animal and vegetable matter. In this paper, I extend this analysis by linking to recent literature on dirt and disgust and exploring the importance of theologies. I examine the work of two key figures in the history of British epidemiology, Charles Maclean and Thomas Southwood Smith, and demonstrate how the latter's increasing emphasis upon the causal agency of filth was structured by his Unitarian faith and his belief in a universally benevolent God.

Will the circle be unbroken: a history of the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards

In celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Air & Waste Management Association, this review examines the history of air quality management (AQM) in the United States over the last century, with an emphasis on the ambient standards programs established by the landmark 1970 Clean Air Act (CAA) Amendments. The current CAA system is a hybrid of several distinct air pollution control philosophies, including the recursive or circular system driven by ambient standards. Although this evolving system has resulted in tremendous improvements in air quality, it has been far from perfect in terms of timeliness and effectiveness. The paper looks at several periods in the history of the U.S. program, including: (1) 1900-1970, spanning the early smoke abatement and smog control programs, the first federal involvement, and the development of a hybrid AQM approach in the 1970 CAA; (2) 1971-1976, when the first National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were set and implemented; (3) 1977-1993, a period of the first revisions to the standards, new CAA Amendments, delays in implementation and decision-making, and key science/policy/legislative developments that would alter both the focus and scale of air pollution programs and how they are implemented; and (4) 1993-2006, the second and third wave of NAAQS revisions and their implementation in the context of the 1990 CAA. This discussion examines where NAAQS have helped drive implementation programs and how improvements in both effects and air quality/control sciences influenced policy and legislation to enhance the effectiveness of the system over time. The review concludes with a look toward the future of AQM, emphasizing challenges and ways to meet them. The most significant of these is the need to make more efficient progress toward air quality goals, while adjusting the system to address the growing intersections between air quality management and climate change.

Will the circle be unbroken: a history of the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards

In celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Air & Waste Management Association, this review examines the history of air quality management (AQM) in the United States over the last century, with an emphasis on the ambient standards programs established by the landmark 1970 Clean Air Act (CAA) Amendments. The current CAA system is a hybrid of several distinct air pollution control philosophies, including the recursive or circular system driven by ambient standards. Although this evolving system has resulted in tremendous improvements in air quality, it has been far from perfect in terms of timeliness and effectiveness. The paper looks at several periods in the history of the U.S. program, including: (1) 1900-1970, spanning the early smoke abatement and smog control programs, the first federal involvement, and the development of a hybrid AQM approach in the 1970 CAA; (2) 1971-1976, when the first National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were set and implemented; (3) 1977-1993, a period of the first revisions to the standards, new CAA Amendments, delays in implementation and decision-making, and key science/policy/legislative developments that would alter both the focus and scale of air pollution programs and how they are implemented; and (4) 1993-2006, the second and third wave of NAAQS revisions and their implementation in the context of the 1990 CAA. This discussion examines where NAAQS have helped drive implementation programs and how improvements in both effects and air quality/control sciences influenced policy and legislation to enhance the effectiveness of the system over time. The review concludes with a look toward the future of AQM, emphasizing challenges and ways to meet them. The most significant of these is the need to make more efficient progress toward air quality goals, while adjusting the system to address the growing intersections between air quality management and climate change.

Outdoor air pollution: overview and historical perspective

Outdoor air pollution is a significant public health hazard in population centers throughout the world. Recognition of air pollution as a nuisance dates back many centuries. Decades of research have established a strong link between air pollution and a spectrum of adverse health effects. Health care practitioners rarely consider the health risk of air pollution in the course of patient care and generally do not provide risk modification strategies as part of patient management. The purpose of this article is to provide front line clinicians with: 1) an overview of the evolution in scientific understanding about air pollution and its health effects, 2) an introduction to the hazards contemporary air pollution presents to patients, and 3) an introduction to the contributions of specific pollutants to outdoor air quality.

Elemental and molecular evidence of soot- and char-derived black carbon inputs to New York City's atmosphere during the 20th century

Soot black carbon (here expressed as GBC) is present in sediments of Central Park and Prospect Park Lakes, New York City (NYC), and peaks in the middle of the 20th Century at the highest values (1-3% dry weight) ever reported in urban lakes. During that period (approximately 1940-1970), the GBC represents up to 28% of the total organic carbon (OC). Radionuclide-normalized whole core inventories of accumulated GBC are similar in the two lakes which are separated by approximately 15 km, suggesting that emissions of fine soot particles may have accumulated homogeneously over at least the urban center of NYC. The distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the sediments is decoupled from that of GBC. The highest levels of total PAHs correspond to peak coal use for space heating in NYC in the early 1900s. In contrast, GBC concentrations were highest in the mid 1900s, a period when oil combustion dominated local fossil fuel use and incineration of municipal solid waste (MSW) was common practice in NYC. Decreases in GBC levels observed in more recently deposited sediments are consistent with improvements in particle emissions control systems. Non-soot BC (char) was identified by a high carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratio that persisted after correction for GBC. This likely tracer of MSW incineration was estimated to contribute an additional '35% of total organic carbon found in the sediments deposited during the peak period of combustion. The temporal trends of soot-BC observed in our lake cores do not agree with published historical reconstructions based on fuel consumption and estimated emission factors.

A bioarcheological study of maxillary sinusitis

Maxillary sinusitis was studied as an indicator of poor air quality. Seven skeletal samples were examined from North America, England, and Nubia, and selected to represent different geographic locations, environments, and subsistence economies. Frequency rates varied from 17.2 to 51.5% of individuals affected with one or both sinuses preserved. Hardin Village had the highest frequency (51.5%), followed by the Aleuts (42.9%), "Illinois" (38.6%), Indian Knoll (38.5%), Kulubnarti (21.8%), Christchurch, Spitalfields (18.0%), and "South Dakota" (17.2%). Male frequencies ranged from 16.7 to 36.7%, but the female frequency ranged more widely from 18.0 to 76.5%. At most sites female rates exceeded male. The effect of urban and rural environment on sinusitis occurrence, and also subsistence economy, biological sex, and social status were explored, and comparative sites also considered; urban agricultural sites had a mean frequency of 48.5%, rural agricultural sites had a mean frequency of 45.0%, and hunter-gatherer sites had a mean frequency of 40.0%. In the urban sites male and female frequencies were near equal, but in the rural agricultural and hunter-gatherer sites female frequencies exceeded male frequencies. Dental disease was not found to have much impact on sinusitis frequency. The importance of the link between poor air quality and respiratory health is highlighted in clinical studies in both developed and developing countries, but also in bioarcheological studies.