Residual HIV-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell frequencies after prolonged antiretroviral therapy reflect pretreatment plasma virus load

BACKGROUND

Virus-specific cellular immune responses mediated by CD4 and CD8 T lymphocytes are thought to be central to the effective control of HIV-1 replication in vivo. However, quantitative correlations between HIV-specific T lymphocyte frequencies and plasma virus load (pVL) have proved difficult to establish in infected human individuals. This most likely reflects the complex interactions between the virus and these immune effector cells in the absence of treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To assess frequencies of HIV-specific T lymphocytes after prolonged suppression of viral replication, i.e., under conditions where the effects of virus on the immune response are standardized and minimized, thereby fixing an important variable in a dynamic multivariate system.

METHODS

HIV-specific CD4 and CD8 T lymphocyte frequencies were measured in 122 individuals after prolonged periods of successful combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) administered during chronic HIV-1 infection.

RESULTS

The residual frequency of both CD4 and CD8 T lymphocytes specific for HIV-1 was inversely related to the pretreatment pVL. This relationship appeared to be non-linear, indicating the presence of a threshold pretreatment pVL level above which HIV-specific CD4 and CD8 T lymphocyte responses could not be maintained when antigenic drive was suppressed. Substantial populations of functional HIV-specific CD4 and CD8 T lymphocytes were generally detectable after prolonged ART only in those individuals with a pretreatment plasma HIV-1 RNA < 100,000 copies/ml.

CONCLUSION

These findings identify a quantitative immune associate of host-virus interactions in established HIV-1 infection.

Scrapie epidemic in a fully PrP-genotyped sheep flock

In scrapie-affected sheep flocks, host PrP genotype plays a vital role in determining which sheep will succumb to scrapie and the incubation period. Consequently, within-flock scrapie dynamics is best understood within the context of the genotype profile of the flock. Here we describe a 17 month epidemic of scrapie in a commercially farmed flock of 230 genotyped Texel sheep. At the start of the study, 70% of the sheep were of three genotypes only: ARR/ARQ, ARH/ARQ and ARQ/ARQ. Only 15% of sheep encoded the disease-associated VRQ allele and only a single sheep (0.4%) was of the most susceptible VRQ/VRQ genotype. For susceptible genotypes there was a marked deficit (P<0.025) of older animals (> or =3 years), implying that some cases of scrapie had occurred previously. In the ensuing 17 months, 18 sheep of known genotype were confirmed positive for the disease: seven VRQ/ARQ, six VRQ/ARH, two VRQ/ARR, three ARQ/ARQ. Median ages at death were 2.7, 2.8, 4.2 and 3.8 years respectively. Mortality rates were 55, 86, 13 and 3% respectively. Survival analysis revealed a highly significant effect of genotype on survivorship, but no difference between VRQ/ARQ and VRQ/ARH, or between VRQ/ARR and ARQ/ARQ. There was no difference in the survivorship of middle- and older-age cohorts of susceptible sheep. Scrapie risk group (as defined by PrP genotype) was not associated with submission as a scrapie suspect but later found to be negative, or with dying of unknown causes on the farm.

Human immunodeficiency virus-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses do not predict viral growth and clearance rates during structured intermittent antiretroviral therapy

There is a continuing search for better ways to use existing drugs against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). One idea is to use short therapy interruptions to "autovaccinate" HIV-infected patients. A group of 13 chronically HIV-infected patients enrolled in a trial of such so-called structured treatment interruptions (STIs) were intensively studied with respect to their viral load (VL) and HIV-specific CD8+ T-cell (cytotoxic T-lymphocyte [CTL]) responses. We found that 10 of the 13 patients had plateau VLs after STIs that were lower than their pretreatment VLs. While viral rebound rates became lower over STIs, there were no changes in clearance rates. Although numbers of CTLs did increase over the same time that viral rebounds decreased, there was no correlation between CTL count and either viral rebound rates or clearance rates. Finally, we asked whether absolute numbers of or changes in numbers of CTLs predict plateau VLs after STIs. No measure of CTLs was able to predict plateau VLs. Thus, there was no signature in these data of an important contribution to virological control from HIV-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes.

The potential size and duration of an epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in British sheep

Because there is a theoretical possibility that the British national sheep flock is infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), we examined the extent of a putative epidemic. An age cohort analysis based on numbers of infected cattle, dose responses of cattle and sheep to BSE, levels of exposure to infected feed, and number of BSE-susceptible sheep in the United Kingdom showed that at the putative epidemic peak in 1990, the number of cases of BSE-infected sheep would have ranged from fewer than 10 to about 1500. The model predicts that fewer than 20 clinical cases of BSE in sheep would be expected in 2001 if maternal transmission occurred at a rate of 10%. Although there are large uncertainties in the parameter estimates, all indications are that current prevalence is low; however, a simple model of flock-to-flock BSE transmission shows that horizontal transmission, if it has occurred, could eventually cause a large epidemic.

Modelling the national scrapie eradication programme in the UK

In accordance with a policy to eliminate all transmissible spongiform encephalopathies from the food chain, a national untargeted ram breeding programme to eliminate scrapie in the UK is in the final stages of planning. Here we formulate a model of flock-to-flock scrapie transmission, in order to consider the effect of a targeted breeding programme which is in the early stages of consideration. We estimate the size of the susceptible flock population, and discuss implications for potential control programmes. Targeting all rams and ewes in highly susceptible flocks rather than rams in all flocks will eradicate scrapie more quickly, and so is likely to be beneficial as long as suitable penalties or incentives are available to facilitate their identification. A more restricted programme aimed only at highly affected flocks would be much easier to implement and crucially will eradicate scrapie just as quickly. This will leave behind a residue population of susceptible sheep, which could then be gradually removed by a more general breeding programme.

Infectious disease dynamics: What characterizes a successful invader?

Against the background of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and other potentially emerging (or re-emerging) infectious diseases, this review will focus on the properties which enable an infectious agent to establish and maintain itself within a specified host population. We shall emphasize that for a pathogen to cross a species barrier is one thing, but for it successfully to maintain itself in the new population is must have a 'basic reproductive number', R(0), which satisfies R(0) > 1. We shall further discuss how behavioural factors interweave with the basic biology of the production of transmission stages by the pathogen, all subject to possible secular changes, to determine the magnitude of R(0). Although primarily focusing on HIV and AIDS, we shall review wider aspects of these questions.

The flock-to-flock force of infection for scrapie in Britain

A postal survey of British sheep farmers provided information on the proportion of farms that experienced their first case of scrapie in each year between 1962 and 1998. We found no evidence of a large increase in the proportion of scrapie-affected farms prior to, during or following the epidemic of BSE in British cattle. After correcting for between-farm heterogeneity in the probability of acquiring scrapie, we estimated the yearly between-flock force of infection since 1962. The current force of infection is estimated at approximately 0.0045 per farm per year and combined with a simple model of scrapie spread provides an estimate of the average duration of a scrapie outbreak on an individual farm. Considering all farms, the average outbreak lasts for five years, but if only those farms that have cases in animals born on the farm are considered, it lasts 15 years. We use these parameter estimates to compare the proportion of farms with scrapie in time periods of different lengths. In the survey, 2.7% of farms had a case in 1998. The 5.3% of farms reporting having a case between 1993 and 1997 is consistent with the hypothesis that the scrapie force of infection remained constant over this period.

The signature of scrapie: differences in the PrP genotype profile of scrapie-affected and scrapie-free UK sheep flocks

The amino-acid sequence of the PrP protein plays an important role in determining whether sheep are susceptible to scrapie. Although the genetics of scrapie susceptibility are now well understood, there have been few studies of the PrP gene at the population level, especially in commercially farmed sheep. Here we describe the PrP genetic profiles of the breeding stock of four UK sheep flocks, comprising nearly 650 animals in total. Two flocks had been scrapie affected for about eight years and two were scrapie free. Scrapie-resistant PrP genotypes predominated in all flocks but highly susceptible genotypes were present in each case. The distribution of PrP genotypes was similar in the scrapie-affected and scrapie-free flocks. The former, however, showed a slight but significant skew towards more susceptible genotypes despite their previous losses of susceptible sheep. Surprisingly, this skew was apparent in younger, but not older, sheep. We suggest that these patterns may occur if sheep flocks destined to become scrapie affected are predisposed by a genetic profile skewed towards susceptibility. The age structure of the scrapie-affected flocks suggests that the number of losses attributable directly or indirectly to scrapie considerably exceeds that recognized by the farmers, and also that significant losses may occur even in sheep of a moderately susceptible genotype. Similar patterns were not detected in the scrapie-free flocks, indicating that these losses are associated with scrapie infection as well as genotype.

Scrapie infections initiated at varying doses: an analysis of 117 titration experiments

An analysis of 117 titration experiments in the murine scrapie model is presented. The experiments encompass 30 years' work and a wide range of experimental conditions. To check that the experimental designs were reasonably consistent over time, comparisons were made of size, duration, source of inoculum, etc., in each experiment. These comparisons revealed no systematic trends that would render invalid comparisons across experiments. For 114 of the experiments it was possible to calculate the dose at which half of the challenged animals were infected (the ID50). These 114 experiments were then combined on the basis of relative dose (i.e. tenfold dilution relative to the ID50). This created a data set in which over 4000 animals were challenged with doses of scrapie ranging from four orders of magnitude below to five orders of magnitude above the ID50. Analysis of this data reveals that mean incubation periods rise linearly with logarithmic decreases in dose. A one unit increase in relative dose (i.e. a tenfold increase in actual dose) will, on average, decrease the incubation period by 25 days. At ID50 the average incubation period in this data set is 300 days. Within a single dose, in a single experimental model, incubation periods have a distribution close to normal. Variability in incubation period also rises linearly as dose decreases. There is no age or sex effect upon the probability of infection, but female mice have incubation periods that are, on average, nine days shorter than their male counterparts and young mice have incubation periods that are longer by seven days. Although many of these patterns are apparent in the results of single titration curves, they can be more rigorously investigated by considering the outcome for thousands of mice.

Descriptive epidemiology of scrapie in Great Britain: results of a postal survey

In 1998, a questionnaire was sent to 11,554 British sheep farmers to determine how many believed that scrapie cases had occurred in their flock; 61.4 per cent of them responded anonymously. The results indicated that 14.9 per cent of farmers with more than 30 breeding ewes thought that they had ever experienced scrapie in their flock and 2.7 per cent thought that they had had cases in the past 12 months. A comparison of these results with the number of farmers reporting suspect scrapie cases to MAFF, in accordance with the statutory requirement, suggests that only 13 per cent of farmers who suspect that they may have cases of scrapie are currently reporting them. Scrapie occurred in all regions of the country but there was an apparent regional variation. Larger farms and those with purebred sheep appeared to be at greater risk of having cases. Other differences between affected and unaffected farms included lambing practices and sheep purchasing policy. On the majority of farms the first case occurred in a purchased animal. The survey also revealed a need for the provision of further information about scrapie to farmers.

Viral dynamics of acute HIV-1 infection

Viral dynamics were intensively investigated in eight patients with acute HIV infection to define the earliest rates of change in plasma HIV RNA before and after the start of antiretroviral therapy. We report the first estimates of the basic reproductive number (R(0)), the number of cells infected by the progeny of an infected cell during its lifetime when target cells are not depleted. The mean initial viral doubling time was 10 h, and the peak of viremia occurred 21 d after reported HIV exposure. The spontaneous rate of decline (alpha) was highly variable among individuals. The phase 1 viral decay rate (delta(I) = 0.3/day) in subjects initiating potent antiretroviral therapy during acute HIV infection was similar to estimates from treated subjects with chronic HIV infection. The doubling time in two subjects who discontinued antiretroviral therapy was almost five times slower than during acute infection. The mean basic reproductive number (R(0)) of 19.3 during the logarithmic growth phase of primary HIV infection suggested that a vaccine or postexposure prophylaxis of at least 95% efficacy would be needed to extinguish productive viral infection in the absence of drug resistance or viral latency. These measurements provide a basis for comparison of vaccine and other strategies and support the validity of the simian immunodeficiency virus macaque model of acute HIV infection.

In vivo HIV-1 replicative capacity in early and advanced infection

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies on patients treated with potent antiretroviral therapy have shown that viral clearance rates do not tend to change between early and advanced HIV-1 infection. Our objective was to investigate whether the other major aspect of virus dynamics, viral replicative capacity, does change. In vitro work has indicated that the viral replicative, capacity increases but in vivo evidence has been lacking.

METHODS

As an in vivo measure of the viral replicative capacity, we studied the rate of rebound of plasma HIV RNA level during a 1-week therapy interruption in previously untreated patients who had received 2 weeks of antiretroviral therapy.

RESULTS

Such therapy in five previously drug-naive patients with high CD4 lymphocyte counts (mean, 611 x 10(6)/l) and five patients with low counts (mean, 49 x 10(6)/l) led to a mean 2.2 log10 copies/ml decrease in plasma HIV-1 levels (from 5-6 log10 copies/ml) in 2 weeks. This was similar in the two groups. Interruption of therapy for the ensuing week resulted in a stable HIV-1 level for approximately 2 days followed by a rebound towards pretherapy level, which was much more marked in the patients with low CD4 cell counts (estimated mean rise 2.22 log10 versus 1.06 log10 copies/ml; P < 0.02). After restarting therapy, HIV RNA levels returned to pre-interruption levels.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings need confirmation, but the ability of HIV-1 to replicate in vivo appears to increase during HIV-1 infection. This increased replicative capacity, for which there are several potential explanations, may be the cause of gradual CD4 lymphocyte depletion.

Mathematical modelling of effectiveness

The effectiveness of a vaccine can be broadly defined as a practical measure of its costs and benefits when used in a community setting. What then is the relationship between a vaccine's efficacy and its effectiveness? Effectiveness certainly includes efficacy, but also encompasses secondary effects of vaccination, long-term efficacy of a vaccine (beyond that measured in conventional efficacy trials), the impact of vaccinating against one strain upon cross-reacting infections, costs of vaccination programmes and logistic considerations for vaccine delivery. This paper considers some of the biological determinants of effectiveness namely; secondary effects, long-term efficacy and competitive interactions amongst strains. Mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of infection and its disruption by vaccination are used as tools to help unravel some of the complexities that may arise when making interventions in non-linear biological systems.

Population biology, evolution, and immunology of vaccination and vaccination programs

The purpose of prophylactic vaccination is to reduce morbidity and mortality in a population. Many questions related to the design of vaccines and vaccination programs require a population standpoint for their sharp formulation and laboratory and field studies to understand their immunologic background. Practical suggestions of the workshop included increased studies of age-specific immunity, better immunoepidemiologic surveillance, better design of efficacy studies, and more systematic sampling of parasite strains to study the evolutionary pressure exerted by vaccines. Theoretical immunology has much to contribute. One of the realizations of the workshop was the value of a strong interdisciplinary approach in vaccine development, utilizing relevant contributions from immunology, population biology, mathematical modeling, epidemiology, molecular biology, and virology.

Vaccines and their impact on the control of disease

Disease control exerts evolutionary pressures that can lead to the evolution of resistance. This has been seen in a spectacular fashion in the evolution of resistance to antibiotics, anti-virals and anti-parasitics. Despite intense (and often successful) attempts to control infectious diseases through vaccination, there is still rather little evidence of the emergence of strains of pathogen resistant to vaccines. This chapter asks why this should be so and what are the exceptions indicating that the evolution of vaccine resistance, though currently rare, is a possibility that should be planned for.

Resource competition as a mechanism for B cell homeostasis

Cellular competition for survival signals offers a cogent and appealing mechanism for the maintenance of cellular homeostasis [Raff, M. C. (1992) Nature (London) 356, 397-400]. We present a theoretical and experimental investigation of the role of competition for resources in the regulation of peripheral B cell numbers. We use formal ecological competition theory, mathematical models of interspecific competition, and competitive repopulation experiments to show that B cells must compete to persist in the periphery and that antigen forms a part of the resources over which B cells compete.

AIDS: decline and fall of immune surveillance?

Recent observations cast doubt on the view that cytotoxic T cells play a key role in keeping HIV-1 infection in check, and that it is the decline in this mechanism of immune surveillance that permits progression to AIDS.

Modelling HIV vaccination

Relatively recently, mathematical models have been applied to issues r elated to HIV vaccination. Significant progress has been made towards understanding how rather ineffective vaccines will perform in trials and in the community, but some areas still need research.

Vaccination, evolution and changes in the efficacy of vaccines: a theoretical framework

The evolution of vaccine-resistant strains of infectious agents is potentially a huge problem for their control by immunization. Yet, for many infectious diseases, it has been possible to drive them to the verge of extinction without vaccine escape mutants arising. This paper establishes a theoretical framework within which to ask why this should be so, what properties of vaccines allow this situation and what might happen in situations where vaccine escape mutants do arise.

The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics

In developed countries the major tuberculosis epidemics declined long before the disease became curable in the 1940s. We present a theoretical framework for assessing the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. We demonstrate that it takes one to several hundred years for a tuberculosis epidemic to rise, fall and reach a stable endemic level. Our results suggest that some of the decline of tuberculosis is simply due to the natural behaviour of an epidemic. Although other factors must also have contributed to the decline, these causal factors were constrained to operate within the slow response time dictated by the intrinsic dynamics.