Does COVID-19 vaccination improve mental health? A difference-in-difference analysis of the Understanding Coronavirus in America study

BACKGROUND

Mental health problems increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Knowledge that one is less at risk after being vaccinated may alleviate distress, but this hypothesis remains unexplored. Here we test whether psychological distress declined in those vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US and whether changes in perceived risk mediated any association.

METHODS

A nationally-representative cohort of U.S. adults (N=5,792) in the Understanding America Study were interviewed every two weeks from March 2020 to June 2021 (28 waves). Difference-in-difference regression tested whether getting vaccinated reduced distress (PHQ-4 scores), with mediation analysis used to identify potential mechanisms, including perceived risks of infection, hospitalization, and death.

RESULTS

Vaccination was associated with a 0.09 decline in distress scores (95% CI:-0.15 to -0.04) (0-12 scale), a 5.7% relative decrease compared to mean scores in the wave prior to vaccination. Vaccination was also associated with an 8.44 percentage point reduction in perceived risk of infection (95% CI:-9.15% to -7.73%), a 7.44-point reduction in perceived risk of hospitalization (95% CI:-8.07% to -6.82%), and a 5.03-point reduction in perceived risk of death (95% CI:-5.57% to -4.49%). Adjusting for risk perceptions decreased the vaccination-distress association by two-thirds. Event study models suggest vaccinated and never vaccinated respondents followed similar PHQ-4 trends pre-vaccination, diverging significantly post-vaccination. Analyses were robust to individual and wave fixed effects, time-varying controls, and several alternative modelling strategies. Results were similar across sociodemographic groups.

CONCLUSION

Receiving a COVID-19 vaccination was associated with declines in distress and perceived risks of infection, hospitalization, and death. Vaccination campaigns could promote these additional benefits of being vaccinated.

Association between disability-related budget reductions and increasing drug-related mortality across local authorities in Great Britain

BACKGROUND

Drug-related mortality in the UK rose markedly after 2012. Here we test the hypothesis that cuts to disability-related spending were associated with increased drug-related mortality across local governments in Great Britain.

METHODS

We regressed changes in drug-related death rates (years 2010-12 versus 2015-17) on local government disability-related budget reductions, adjusting for a range of regional, demographic, and economic factors. Budget reductions are captured with a combined measure of financial losses due to Incapacity Benefit and Disability Living Allowance reforms, expressed in pounds sterling per capita, per year. 364 local authorities across England, Scotland, and Wales were included in the study.

FINDINGS

Greater budget reductions were associated with greater increases in drug-related death rates. In the unadjusted model, each £100 per capita budget reduction was associated with an increase in drug-related death rates of 3.30 per 100 000 population (95% CI: 2.43 to 4.17). The magnitude of the association increased after adjusting for region and demographic factors (b = 4.84; 95% CI: 3.26 to 6.43). The association remained statistically significant after adjusting for a full set of controls, including baseline and trends in unemployment rates, median hourly pay, and gross disposable household income per capita (b = 4.41; 95% CI: 2.57 to 6.24).

CONCLUSION

Deeper cuts to local government spending in Great Britain in the 2010s were associated with larger increases in drug-related deaths.

Prevalence and changes in food-related hardships by socioeconomic and demographic groups during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK: A longitudinal panel study

Background

Food insecurity concerns have featured prominently in the UK response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We assess changes in the prevalence of food-related hardships in the UK population from April to July 2020.

Method

We analysed longitudinal data on food-related hardships for 11,104 respondents from the April-July 2020 waves of the Understanding Society COVID-19 web survey with linked data from the 2017-9 wave of the annual Understanding Society survey. Outcome variables were reports of being hungry but not eating and of being unable to eat healthy and nutritious food in the last week, which were adapted from the Food Insecurity Experience Scale. We used unadjusted estimates to examine changes in population prevalence and logistic regression to assess the association between employment transitions and both outcomes at the individual level.

Findings

The prevalence of reporting an inability to eat healthy or nutritious food rose from 3•2% in April to 16•3% in July 2020. The largest increases in being unable to eat healthy or nutritious food were among Asian respondents, the self-employed, and 35-44-year-olds. The prevalence of being hungry but not eating rose from 3•3% in April to 5•1% in July, with the largest increases observed among unemployed individuals below age 65. Those moving from employment to unemployment had higher odds of being hungry but not eating in the last week relative to furloughed individuals (OR = 2•2; p < 0•05; 95% CI: 1•1 to 4•2) and to the persistently employed (OR = 3•5; p < 0•001; 95% CI: 1•8 to 6•9), adjusting for age, highest qualification in 2017-19, net household income in 2017-19 (equivalized), gender, race/ethnicity, number children at home (aged 0-4, 5-15, and 16-18), cohabitation status, and government office region. Respondents moving from employment to unemployment also had higher odds of reporting an inability to eat healthy and nutritious food relative to furloughed individuals (OR = 1•9; p < 0•05; 95% CI: 1•4 to 3•2) and to the persistently employed (OR = 2•0; p < 0•01; 95% CI: 1•2 to 3•4). No statistically significant differences were found between furloughed individuals and the persistently employed in their probability of reporting either outcome.

Interpretation

Food-related hardships increased substantially in the UK between April and July 2020, largely driven by reports of an inability to eat healthy and nutritious food. The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and Self-Employment Income Support Scheme appeared to have conferred some protection, but more could have been done to mitigate the problems we describe in obtaining affordable food.

Funding

DS is funded by the Wellcome Trust investigator award. JK and DS are funded by the European Research Council n. 313590 – HRES. VT is funded by the European Research Council n. 694145- IFAMID.

Use of amenable mortality indicators to evaluate the impact of financial crisis on health system performance in Greece

BACKGROUND

Greece experienced the largest reduction in its health care budget of any European country during the economic crisis of 2008-15. Here, we test the hypothesis that budget reductions worsened health system performance in Greece, using the concept of Amenable Mortality to capture deaths which should not occur in the presence of effective and timely health care.

METHODS

Amenable mortality was calculated from national mortality statistics, using age-standardized deaths from 34 conditions amenable to medical intervention in Greece during 2000-16, with further analysis by sex, age, region and cause. Mortality rate ratios and their 95% CI were also computed. Interrupted time series analyses were performed to compare trends prior to austerity measures (2001-10) with those after (2011-16), adjusting for historical trends.

RESULTS

Prior to austerity measures, amenable mortality rates were declining. After 2011, coinciding with the inception of budget reductions, the slope of decline diminished significantly. The average annual percent of change in standardized death rates was 2.65% in 2001-10, falling to 1.60% in 2011-6. In 10 of 34 conditions, the SDR increased significantly after the crisis onset, and in five more conditions the long-term decline reversed, to increasing after 2011. The age-specific mortality rates observed in 2011-16 were significantly higher than those expected at ages 0-4 and 65-74 but not significantly higher in all other age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Health system performance in Greece worsened in association with austerity measures, leading to a deceleration of the decline in amenable mortality and increased mortality from several conditions amenable to medical interventions.

A lesson from history? Worsening mortality and the rise of the Nazi Party in 1930s Germany

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that worsening mortality rates in the early 1930s were associated with increasing votes for the Nazi Party.

STUDY DESIGN

The study consist of panel data with fixed effects.

METHODS

We used district- and city-level regression models of Nazi vote shares on changes in all-cause mortality rates in 866 districts and 214 cities during federal elections from 1930 to 1933, adjusting for election and district/city-level fixed effects and sociodemographic factors. As a falsification test, we used a subset of deaths less susceptible to sociopolitical factors.

RESULTS

Historical downward trends in mortality rates reversed in the early 1930s in Germany. At the district/city level, these increases were positively associated with a rising Nazi vote share. Each increase of 10 deaths per 1000 population was associated with a 6.51-percentage-point increase in Nazi vote share (95% confidence interval = 1.17-11.8). The strongest associations were with deaths due to infectious and communicable diseases, suicides, and alcohol-related deaths. Worsening mortality had no association with votes for the Communist Party or for other contemporary political parties. Greater welfare payments were associated with smaller increases in both mortality and Nazi vote share, and adjusting for welfare generosity mitigated the association by approximately one-third.

CONCLUSIONS

Worsening mortality rates were positively associated with the rise of the Nazi Party in 1930s Germany. Social security mitigated the association between mortality and Nazi vote share. Our findings add to the growing evidence that population health declines can be a 'canary in the coal mine' for the health of democracies.

COVID-19 and the collapse of global trade: building an effective public health response

The scale of the COVID-19 pandemic is a consequence of international trade and globalisation, with the virus spreading along established trade and travel routes. However, the pandemic also affects international trade through reductions in both supply and demand. In this Viewpoint we describe the many implications for health and propose ways to mitigate them. Problems include reduced access to medical supplies (in particular, personal protective equipment and tests), budgetary shortfalls as a result of reduced tariffs and taxes, and a general decline in economic activity-leading, in many cases, to recessions, threats to social safety nets, and to increased precariousness of income, employment, and food security. However, in exceptional cases, the pandemic has also brought some transient benefits, including to the environment. Looking ahead, there will be great pressure to further liberalise rules on trade to encourage economic recovery, but it is essential that trade policy be informed by its many consequences for health to ensure that the benefits are maximised and threats are minimised through active identification and mitigation.

Using volunteered geographic information to assess mobility in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-city time series analysis of 41 cities in 22 countries from March 2nd to 26th 2020

Objectives

Restricting mobility is a central aim for lowering contact rates and preventing COVID-19 transmission. Yet the impact on mobility of different non-pharmaceutical countermeasures in the earlier stages of the pandemic is not well-understood.

Design

Trends were evaluated using Citymapper’s mobility index covering 2nd to 26th March 2020, expressed as percentages of typical usage periods from 0% as the lowest and 100% as normal. China and India were not covered. Multivariate fixed effects models were used to estimate the association of policies restricting movement on mobility before and after their introduction. Policy restrictions were assessed using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index as well as measures coding the timing and degree of school and workplace closures, transport restrictions, and cancellation of mass gatherings.

Setting

41 cities worldwide.

Main outcome measures

Citymapper’s mobility index.

Results

Mobility declined in all major cities throughout March. Larger declines were seen in European than Asian cities. The COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index was strongly associated with declines in mobility (r = − 0.75, p < 0.001). After adjusting for time-trends, we observed that implementing non-pharmaceutical countermeasures was associated with a decline of mobility of 10.0% for school closures (95% CI: 4.36 to 15.7%), 15.0% for workplace closures (95% CI: 10.2 to 19.8%), 7.09% for cancelling public events (95% CI: 1.98 to 12.2%), 18.0% for closing public transport (95% CI: 6.74 to 29.2%), 13.3% for restricting internal movements (95% CI: 8.85 to 17.8%) and 5.30% for international travel controls (95% CI: 1.69 to 8.90). In contrast, as expected, there was no association between population mobility changes and fiscal or monetary measures or emergency healthcare investment.

Conclusions

Understanding the effect of public policy on mobility in the early stages is crucial to slowing and reducing COVID-19 transmission. By using Citymapper’s mobility index, this work provides the first evidence about trends in mobility and the impacts of different policy interventions, suggesting that closure of public transport, workplaces and schools are particularly impactful.

Why is syphilis rising in Europe? Multi-level modelling of alternative hypotheses in 31 countries

Background

Syphilis transmission has increased markedly over the past two decades in Europe, concentrated in men who have sex with men. We test alternative potential social and behavioral individual- and population-level determinants of this resurgence.

Methods

Two rounds of the cross-sectional European Men who have sex with men Internet Survey (EMIS 2010 and 2017, n = 272,902) were used to fit multi-level linear probability models to evaluate determinants of the incidence of self-reported syphilis, capturing risky sexual behaviours and pre-exposure prophylaxis use, among others, adjusting for potential sociodemographic confounders.

Results

Self-reported syphilis incidence rates rose by about 1.8 percentage points (within the last 12 months) and 3.9 (within the last 5 years) between the 2010 and 2017 waves, after adjusting for sociodemographic factors. HIV status was a major risk factor for syphilis infection (27.6 ppt higher incident rate, 95%CI: 24.7 to 30.5). A dose-response relationship was observed between greater numbers of condomless non-steady partners and syphilis infection, with more than 10 partners estimating increases in the probability of diagnosis of over 25 ppt (11-20 partners vs none: 24.5 ppt, 95%CI: 20.5 to 28.5); further, we observed evidence of mediation for number of condomless non-steady partners, which attenuated the estimated rise in 2017 vs 2010 by about 35%. STI testing uptake also accounted for a substantial increase in syphilis incidence signaling higher detection rates over time. While country-level PrEP use was linked to greater number of condomless partners, there was no substantial impact of population-wide factors, including GDP and PrEP use, on overall syphilis trends.

Conclusions

Risky sexual behavior changes, particularly condomless sex with non-steady partners, appears to be a major contributing factor to rising syphilis incidence. Further research is needed to understand what accounts for this substantial behavior change.

Key messages

Increased number of condomless non-steady partners accounts for a substantial rise in syphilis trends. Population-level PrEP use was linked to increasing numbers of condomless non-steady partners but had no substantial impact on overall syphilis trends.

Understanding the relationship between alternative pension systems and healthy ageing: cross-national and quasi-natural experimental analyses of 27 EU countries

How do pension systems contribute to healthy ageing? It is widely speculated that more generous and stable pensions could promote better ageing outcomes, as well as could potentially result in lowered healthcare costs. Yet little is known about how alternative pension regimes shape health and healthcare expenditures in older persons. Here, using multi-level, cross-country data from the European Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement (SHARE, n = 140,000) covering 27 nations, we test the hypotheses that more generous pensions, as well as systems with defined benefit (which are predictable and more stable) compared with defined contributions, associate with improvements in self-reported health, quality of life, better physical and mental health scores, and lowered healthcare utilization. To do so we report the results of two sets of studies. In the first, we evaluate cross-national longitudinal SHARE integrated with OECD pension generosity and replacement rate data. In the second, we perform a series of quasi-natural experimental studies in Ireland, Germany, and Greece, taking advantage of pension reforms mostly involving budgetary reductions that occurred in the wake of the Great Recessions in Europe. For the proposed workshop we present our results, as well as provide methodological insight into how to perform such integrated epidemiological-economic analysis. We will further discuss the implications for policy and for future research investigating the relations between pension and health systems.

COVID-19 lockdown impact on lifestyle habits of Italian adults

In March 2020, when the Government imposed nation-wide lockdown measures to contrast the COVID-19 outbreak, the life of Italians suddenly changed. In order to evaluate the impact of lockdown on lifestyle habits and behavioral risk factors of the general adult population in Italy, we set up the Lost in Italy (LOckdown and lifeSTyles IN ITALY) project. Within this project, the online panel of Doxa was used to conduct a web-based cross-sectional study during the first phase of the lockdown, on a large representative sample of adults aged 18-74 years (N=6003). The self-administered questionnaire included information on lifestyle habits and perceived physical and mental health, through the use of validated scales. As we are working within the Lost in Italy project, we got two additional grants to further research on the medium-term impact of lockdown, a topic of great interest and with anticipated large socio-economic and public health implications. In details: we obtained by the AXA Research Fund support to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on physical, mental, and social wellbeing of elderly and fragile populations in the Lombardy region, the area most heavily hit by the pandemic in the country. Moreover, as a fruitful integration, we obtained support by the Directorate General for Welfare of the region to assess health services delivery and access to healthcare in the same study population, combining an analysis of administrative databases with an economic analysis. We are confident that the solid background of our partners, the multi-disciplinary competencies they bring, together with appropriate funding and access to rich data sources will allow us to fulfill our research objectives.

Mechanisms for addressing and managing the influence of corporations on public health policy, research and practice: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

We identified mechanisms for addressing and/or managing the influence of corporations on public health policy, research and practice, as well as examples of where these mechanisms have been adopted from across the globe.

DESIGN

We conducted a scoping review. We conducted searches in five databases on 4 June 2019. Twenty-eight relevant institutions and networks were contacted to identify additional mechanisms and examples. In addition, we identified mechanisms and examples from our collective experience working on the influence of corporations on public health policy, research and practice.

SETTING

We identified mechanisms at the national, regional and global levels.

RESULTS

Thirty-one documents were included in our review. Eight were peer-reviewed scientific articles. Nine discussed mechanisms to address and/or manage the influence of different types of industries; while other documents targeted specific industries. In total, we identified 49 mechanisms for addressing and/or managing the influence of corporations on public health policy, research and practice, and 43 of these were adopted at the national, regional or global level. We identified four main types of mechanisms: transparency; management of interactions with industry and of conflicts of interest; identification, monitoring and education about the practices of corporations and associated risks to public health; prohibition of interactions with industry. Mechanisms for governments (n=17) and academia (n=13) were most frequently identified, with fewer for the media and civil society.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified several mechanisms that could help address and/or manage the negative influence of corporations on public health policy, research and practice. If adopted and evaluated more widely, many of the mechanisms described in this manuscript could contribute to efforts to prevent and control non-communicable diseases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION DETAILS

The protocol was registered with the Open Science Framework on 27 May 2019 (https://osf.io/xc2vp).

The quantification of the psychiatric revolution: a quasi-natural experiment of the suicide impact of the Basaglia Law

BACKGROUND

The Italian 180/1978 reform abolishing asylums is one of the most contested mental health programs ever implemented. It aimed to shift care of mental illness into the community improving outcomes and reducing expenditure. It was a model for successive deinstitutionalization initiatives across Europe and North America. However, there were longstanding concerns that, without expansion of community care, it may have deprived patients with mental illness access to support, placing them at increased risk of suicide.

METHODS

Regression discontinuity models were used to quantify the association between the number of suicides and the introduction of the Basaglia Law, disaggregated by age-group and gender, covering 20 Italian regions during the period 1975-84. Models were adjusted for potential socio-demographic confounding factors, region-specific fixed effects and pre-existing time-trends.

RESULTS

Italian regions implemented the Basaglia Law to varying degrees over time. We observed that, after adjusting for pre-existing time trends, the implementation was associated with a consistent increase in the number of suicides for all the age-groups [incidence rate ratio, age 15-44: 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-1.41; age 45-74: 1.45, 95% CI 1.37-1.54] and for both genders (males: 1.47, 95% CI 1.41-1.53; females: 1.36, 95% CI 1.25-1.47). Hospital closure appeared to be an important mediating mechanism.

CONCLUSIONS

The Basaglia Law was associated with a significant increase in the number of suicides, with evidence of an association with closures of facilities, leaving those with mental illness with nowhere to go, as the envisioned community care structures failed to be developed as originally planned.

Recession hardships, personal control, and the amplification of psychological distress: Differential responses to cumulative stress exposure during the U.S. Great Recession

Recessions pose risks to mental health, yet the psychosocial mechanisms involved are less clear. One critical factor may be people's perceived control when faced with multiple recession hardships. Here we test a structural amplification hypothesis by assessing the role of perceived control as a mediator and moderator of the relation between recession shocks and psychological distress. We draw on waves 2 (2004-2006) and 3 (2013-2014) of the Midlife in the United States study (MIDUS), covering 1,739 US adults under age 75 from before and after the Great Recession. Our statistical models reveal that perceived control declines while distress rises in association with a greater accumulation of recession-related hardships. Perceived control partially mediated the recession hardships-distress association,attenuating it by about one-fifth. Further, perceived control modified the association between recession hardships and distress; individuals who reported larger declines in personal control had greater increases in distress, whereas those who experienced hardships but increased their perceived control did not exhibit significant changes in distress levels. Taken together, our findings support the structural amplification hypothesis, whereby an accumulation of recession hardships erode coping resources that would otherwise protect individuals from the mental health effects of stress exposure. Future research is needed to better understand sources of resilience at individual, community, and societal levels to help ameliorate sentiments of powerlessness and lack of perceived control during economic recessions.

Deaths of Despair and Brexit Votes: Cross-Local Authority Statistical Analysis in England and Wales

Objectives. To test the hypothesis that deaths of despair, a marker of social suffering, were associated with greater support for Brexit in the United Kingdom's 2016 European Union referendum.Methods. We used cross-local authority regression models of Brexit vote shares on changes in suicide and drug-related death rates before (2005-2007) and after the recession (2014-2016), adjusting for sociodemographic factors. The population comprised 345 local authorities in England and Wales.Results. Mortality rates were associated with voting patterns. An increase of 10 drug-related deaths per 100 000 was associated with a 15.25-percentage-point increase in Brexit votes (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.27, 20.24), while an increase of 10 suicides per 100 000 was associated with a 9.97-percentage-point increase in vote shares for Brexit (95% CI = 6.25, 13.70). These results were substantially attenuated after we adjusted for education, and reduced to nonsignificance for drug mortality (b = 2.18; 95% CI = -0.21, 4.57) and suicide (b = 0.94; 95% CI = -0.32, 2.21) upon inclusion of other sociodemographic factors.Conclusions. Worsening mortality correlated with Brexit votes. These phenomena appear to share similar antecedents. A rise in such deaths may point to deeper social problems that could have political consequences.

Employment relations and dismissal regulations: Does employment legislation protect the health of workers?

Sociologists have long acknowledged that being in a precarious labour market position, whether employed or unemployed, can harm peoples' health. However, scholars have yet to fully investigate the possible contextual, institutional determinants of this relationship. Two institutions that were overlooked in previous empirical studies are the regulations that set minimum compensation for dismissal, severance payments, and entitlements to a period of notice before dismissal, notice periods. These institutions may be important for workers' health as they influence the degree of insecurity that workers are exposed to. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining whether longer notice periods and greater severance payments protect the health of labour market participants, both employed and unemployed. We constructed two cohorts of panel data before and during the European recession using data from 22 countries in the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (person years = 338,000). We find more generous severance payments significantly reduce the probability that labour market participants, especially the unemployed, will experience declines in self-reported health, with a slightly weaker relationship for longer notice periods.

The Economic and Mental Health Impact of IAPT: Pragmatic Trial in Three English Regions

Background

Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme is the English’s major initiative for treating anxiety and depression, currently provided to over 1 million people. We tested whether IAPT could reduce healthcare costs and improve employment in persons with long-term chronic conditions.

Methods

Stepped-wedge design of two cohorts covering 560 patients each with depression and/or anxiety and comorbid long-term physical health conditions, namely diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardio-vascular disease (CVD) from three areas in Thames Valley (Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire) for the period March 2017 - August 2017. Panels were balanced. Difference-in-difference models were used and intention-to-treat analysis.

Results

Based on the step-wedge modelling, IAPT treatment decreased costs by £497 (95% CI: -£770 to -£224) total per person (pp) (from £1266 pp before starting the treatment to £768 pp since the treatment started)in the first 3 months. Results also showed a decrease by about 5.55 [95% CI: -6.35, -4.75] (-4.18 [95%CI: -4.91, -3.45]) points per person in the PHQ9 (GAD7). Our results show that IAPT increased the probability to an employment for those who were unemployment by about 7.92% (95% CI: 0.94% to 14.9%).

Conclusions

IAPT treatment significantly reduced healthcare utilization and costs among persons with chronic conditions. It also significantly increased the probability of employment.

Key messages

IAPT treatment significantly reduced healthcare utilization and costs among persons with chronic conditions. IAPT was significantly associated with increased probability to find employment for those unemployed.