Diarrheal Pathogens Associated With Growth and Neurodevelopment

Background

Diarrheal pathogens have been associated with linear growth deficits. The effect of diarrheal pathogens on growth is likely due to inflammation, which also adversely affects neurodevelopment. We hypothesized that diarrheagenic pathogens would be negatively associated with both growth and neurodevelopment.

Methods

We conducted a longitudinal birth cohort study of 250 children with diarrheal surveillance and measured pathogen burden in diarrheal samples using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Pathogen attributable fraction estimates of diarrhea over the first 2 years of life, corrected for socioeconomic variables, were used to predict both growth and scores on the Bayley-III Scales of Infant and Toddler Development.

Results

One hundred eighty children were analyzed for growth and 162 for neurodevelopmental outcomes. Rotavirus, Campylobacter, and Shigella were the leading causes of diarrhea in year 1 while Shigella, Campylobacter, and heat-stable toxin–producing enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli were the leading causes in year 2. Norovirus was the only pathogen associated with length-for-age z score at 24 months and was positively associated (regression coefficient [RC], 0.42 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .04 to .80]). Norovirus (RC, 2.46 [95% CI, .05 to 4.87]) was also positively associated with cognitive scores while sapovirus (RC, –2.64 [95% CI, –4.80 to –.48]) and typical enteropathogenic E. coli (RC, –4.14 [95% CI, –8.02 to –.27]) were inversely associated. No pathogens were associated with language or motor scores. Significant maternal, socioeconomic, and perinatal predictors were identified for both growth and neurodevelopment.

Conclusions

Maternal, prenatal, and socioeconomic factors were common predictors of growth and neurodevelopment. Only a limited number of diarrheal pathogens were associated with these outcomes.

The Clinical Presentation of Culture-positive and Culture-negative, Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR)-Attributable Shigellosis in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study and Derivation of a Shigella Severity Score: Implications for Pediatric Shigella Vaccine Trials

BACKGROUND

Shigella is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea and target for vaccine development. Microbiologic and clinical case definitions are needed for pediatric field vaccine efficacy trials.

METHODS

We compared characteristics of moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) cases in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) between children with culture positive Shigella to those with culture-negative, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-attributable Shigella (defined by an ipaH gene cycle threshold <27.9). Among Shigella MSD cases, we determined risk factors for death and derived a clinical severity score.

RESULTS

Compared to culture-positive Shigella MSD cases (n = 745), culture-negative/qPCR-attributable Shigella cases (n = 852) were more likely to be under 12 months, stunted, have a longer duration of diarrhea, and less likely to have high stool frequency or a fever. There was no difference in dehydration, hospitalization, or severe classification from a modified Vesikari score. Twenty-two (1.8%) Shigella MSD cases died within the 14-days after presentation to health facilities, and 59.1% of these deaths were in culture-negative cases. Age <12 months, diarrhea duration prior to presentation, vomiting, stunting, wasting, and hospitalization were associated with mortality. A model-derived score assigned points for dehydration, hospital admission, and longer diarrhea duration but was not significantly better at predicting 14-day mortality than a modified Vesikari score.

CONCLUSIONS

A composite severity score consistent with severe disease or dysentery may be a pragmatic clinical endpoint for severe shigellosis in vaccine trials. Reliance on culture for microbiologic confirmation may miss a substantial number of Shigella cases but is currently required to measure serotype specific immunity.

Duration of Postdiarrheal Enteric Pathogen Carriage in Young Children in Low-resource Settings

Background

Prolonged enteropathogen shedding after diarrhea complicates the identification of etiology in subsequent episodes and is an important driver of pathogen transmission. A standardized approach has not been applied to estimate the duration of shedding for a wide range of pathogens.

Methods

We used a multisite birth cohort of children 0–24 months of age from whom diarrheal and monthly nondiarrheal stools were previously tested by quantitative polymerase chain reaction for 29 enteropathogens. We modeled the probability of detection of the etiologic pathogen before and after diarrhea using a log-normal accelerated failure time survival model and estimated the median duration of pathogen carriage as well as differences in subclinical pathogen carriage 60 days after diarrhea onset in comparison to a prediarrhea baseline.

Results

We analyzed 3247 etiologic episodes of diarrhea for the 9 pathogens with the highest attributable burdens of diarrhea. The median duration of postdiarrheal carriage varied widely by pathogen, from about 1 week for rotavirus (median, 8.1 days [95% confidence interval {CI}, 6.2–9.6]) to >1 month for Cryptosporidium (39.5 days [95% CI, 30.6–49.0]). The largest increases in subclinical pathogen carriage before and after diarrhea were seen for Cryptosporidium (prevalence difference between 30 days prior and 60 days after diarrhea onset, 0.30 [95% CI, .23–.39]) and Shigella (prevalence difference, 0.21 [95% CI, .16–.27]).

Conclusions

Postdiarrheal shedding was widely variable between pathogens, with strikingly prolonged shedding seen for Cryptosporidium and Shigella. Targeted antimicrobial therapy and vaccination for these pathogens may have a relatively large impact on transmission.

Lewis Blood-group Antigens Are Associated With Altered Susceptibility to Shigellosis

In a cohort of infants, we found that lack of the Lewis histo-blood group antigen was associated with increased susceptibility to shigellosis. Broadly inhibiting fucosylation in epithelial cells in vitro decreased invasion by Shigella flexneri. These results support a role for fucosylated glycans in susceptibility to shigellosis.

Global diarrhoea-associated mortality estimates and models in children: Recommendations for dataset and study selection

BACKGROUND

Multiple factors contribute to variation in disease burden, including the type and quality of data, and inherent properties of the models used. Understanding how these factors affect mortality estimates is crucial, especially in the context of public health decision making. We examine how the quality of the studies selected to provide mortality data, influence estimates of burden and provide recommendations about the inclusion of studies and datasets to calculate mortality estimates.

METHODS

To determine how mortality estimates are affected by the data used to generate model outputs, we compared the studies used by The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) modelling groups to generate enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella-associated mortality estimates for 2016. Guided by an expert WHO Working Group, we applied a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) to evaluate the quality of studies used by both modelling groups.

RESULTS

IHME and MCEE used different sets of ETEC and Shigella studies in their models and the majority of studies were high quality. The distribution of the NOS scores was similar between the two modelling groups. We observed an overrepresentation of studies from some countries in SEAR, AFR and WPR compared to other WHO regions.

CONCLUSION

We identified key differences in study inclusion and exclusion criteria used by IHME and MCEE and discuss their impact on datasets used to generate diarrhoea-associated mortality estimates. Based on these observations, we provide a set of recommendations for future estimates of mortality associated with enteric diseases.

Protection From Natural Immunity Against Enteric Infections and Etiology-Specific Diarrhea in a Longitudinal Birth Cohort

BACKGROUND

The degree of protection conferred by natural immunity is unknown for many enteropathogens, but it is important to support the development of enteric vaccines.

METHODS

We used the Andersen-Gill extension of the Cox model to estimate the effects of previous infections on the incidence of subsequent subclinical infections and diarrhea in children under 2 using quantitative molecular diagnostics in the MAL-ED cohort. We used cross-pathogen negative control associations to correct bias due to confounding by unmeasured heterogeneity of exposure and susceptibility.

RESULTS

Prior rotavirus infection was associated with a 50% lower hazard (calibrated hazard ratio [cHR], 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41-0.62) of subsequent rotavirus diarrhea. Strong protection was evident against Cryptosporidium diarrhea (cHR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.51). There was also protection due to prior infections for norovirus GII (cHR against diarrhea, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.49-0.91), astrovirus (cHR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.81), and Shigella (cHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65-0.95). Minimal protection was observed for other bacteria, adenovirus 40/41, and sapovirus.

CONCLUSIONS

Natural immunity was generally stronger for the enteric viruses than bacteria, potentially due to less antigenic diversity. Vaccines against major causes of diarrhea may be feasible but likely need to be more immunogenic than natural infection.

A modular approach to integrating multiple data sources into real-time clinical prediction for pediatric diarrhea

Traditional clinical prediction models focus on parameters of the individual patient. For infectious diseases, sources external to the patient, including characteristics of prior patients and seasonal factors, may improve predictive performance. We describe the development of a predictive model that integrates multiple sources of data in a principled statistical framework using a post-test odds formulation. Our method enables electronic real-time updating and flexibility, such that components can be included or excluded according to data availability. We apply this method to the prediction of etiology of pediatric diarrhea, where 'pre-test’ epidemiologic data may be highly informative. Diarrhea has a high burden in low-resource settings, and antibiotics are often over-prescribed. We demonstrate that our integrative method outperforms traditional prediction in accurately identifying cases with a viral etiology, and show that its clinical application, especially when used with an additional diagnostic test, could result in a 61% reduction in inappropriately prescribed antibiotics.

Baseline Characteristics of Study Participants in the Early Life Interventions for Childhood Growth and Development in Tanzania (ELICIT) Trial

Recurrent enteric infections and micronutrient deficiencies, including deficiencies in the tryptophan–kynurenine–niacin pathway, have been associated with environmental enteric dysfunction, potentially contributing to poor child growth and development. We are conducting a randomized, placebo-controlled, 2 × 2 factorial interventional trial in a rural population in Haydom, Tanzania, to determine the effect of 1) antimicrobials (azithromycin and nitazoxanide) and/or 2) nicotinamide, a niacin vitamer, on attained length at 18 months. Mother/infant dyads were enrolled within 14 days of the infant’s birth from September 2017 to September 2018, with the follow-up to be completed in February 2020. Here, we describe the baseline characteristics of the study cohort, risk factors for low enrollment weight, and neonatal adverse events (AEs). Risk factors for a low enrollment weight included being a firstborn child (−0.54 difference in weight-for-age z-score [WAZ] versus other children, 95% CI: −0.71, −0.37), lower socioeconomic status (−0.28, 95% CI: −0.43, −0.12 difference in WAZ), and birth during the preharvest season (November to March) (−0.22, 95% CI: −0.33, −0.11 difference in WAZ). The most common neonatal serious AEs were respiratory tract infections and neonatal sepsis (2.2 and 1.4 events per 100 child-months, respectively). The study cohort represents a high-risk population for whom interventions to improve child growth and development are urgently needed. Further analyses are needed to understand the persistent impacts of seasonal malnutrition and the interactions between seasonality, socioeconomic status, and the study interventions.

Clinical predictors for etiology of acute diarrhea in children in resource-limited settings

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea is one of the leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality in lower- and middle-income countries. In such settings, access to laboratory diagnostics are often limited, and decisions for use of antimicrobials often empiric. Clinical predictors are a potential non-laboratory method to more accurately assess diarrheal etiology, the knowledge of which could improve management of pediatric diarrhea.

METHODS

We used clinical and quantitative molecular etiologic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a prospective, case-control study, to develop predictive models for the etiology of diarrhea. Using random forests, we screened the available variables and then assessed the performance of predictions from random forest regression models and logistic regression models using 5-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

We identified 1049 cases where a virus was the only etiology, and developed predictive models against 2317 cases where the etiology was known but non-viral (bacterial, protozoal, or mixed). Variables predictive of a viral etiology included lower age, a dry and cold season, increased height-for-age z-score (HAZ), lack of bloody diarrhea, and presence of vomiting. Cross-validation suggests an AUC of 0.825 can be achieved with a parsimonious model of 5 variables, achieving a specificity of 0.85, a sensitivity of 0.59, a NPV of 0.82 and a PPV of 0.64.

CONCLUSION

Predictors of the etiology of pediatric diarrhea can be used by providers in low-resource settings to inform clinical decision-making. The use of non-laboratory methods to diagnose viral causes of diarrhea could be a step towards reducing inappropriate antibiotic prescription worldwide.

Effect of water, sanitation, handwashing and nutrition interventions on enteropathogens in children 14 months old: a cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the impact of low-cost water, sanitation, handwashing (WSH) and child nutrition interventions on enteropathogen carriage in the WASH Benefits cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Bangladesh.

METHODS

We analyzed 1411 routine fecal samples from children 14±2 months old in the WSH (n = 369), nutrition counseling plus lipid-based nutrient supplement (n = 353), nutrition plus WSH (n = 360), and control (n = 329) arms for 34 enteropathogens using quantitative PCR. Outcomes included the number of co-occurring pathogens; cumulative quantity of four stunting-associated pathogens; and prevalence and quantity of individual pathogens. Masked analysis was by intention-to-treat.

RESULTS

326 (99.1%) control children had one or more enteropathogens detected (mean 3.8±1.8). Children receiving WSH interventions had lower prevalence and quantity of individual viruses than controls (prevalence difference for norovirus: -11% [95% confidence interval [CI], -5 to -17%]; sapovirus: -9% [95%CI, -3 to -15%]; and adenovirus 40/41: -9% [95%CI, -2 to - 15%]). There was no difference in bacteria, parasites, or cumulative quantity of stunting-associated pathogens between controls and any intervention arm.

CONCLUSIONS

WSH interventions were associated with fewer enteric viruses in children aged 14 months. Different strategies are needed to reduce enteric bacteria and parasites at this critical young age.

Epidemiology of Shigella infections and diarrhea in the first two years of life using culture-independent diagnostics in 8 low-resource settings

Culture-independent diagnostics have revealed a larger burden of Shigella among children in low-resource settings than previously recognized. We further characterized the epidemiology of Shigella in the first two years of life in a multisite birth cohort. We tested 41,405 diarrheal and monthly non-diarrheal stools from 1,715 children for Shigella by quantitative PCR. To assess risk factors, clinical factors related to age and culture positivity, and associations with inflammatory biomarkers, we used log-binomial regression with generalized estimating equations. The prevalence of Shigella varied from 4.9%-17.8% in non-diarrheal stools across sites, and the incidence of Shigella-attributable diarrhea was 31.8 cases (95% CI: 29.6, 34.2) per 100 child-years. The sensitivity of culture compared to qPCR was 6.6% and increased to 27.8% in Shigella-attributable dysentery. Shigella diarrhea episodes were more likely to be severe and less likely to be culture positive in younger children. Older age (RR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.70, 1.81 per 6-month increase in age), unimproved sanitation (RR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.29), low maternal education (<10 years, RR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), initiating complementary foods before 3 months (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.20), and malnutrition (RR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.95 per unit increase in weight-for-age z-score) were risk factors for Shigella. There was a linear dose-response between Shigella quantity and myeloperoxidase concentrations. The burden of Shigella varied widely across sites, but uniformly increased through the second year of life and was associated with intestinal inflammation. Culture missed most clinically relevant cases of severe diarrhea and dysentery.

Shigella is the second leading cause of diarrhea morbidity and mortality among children in low and middle-income countries. We characterized the epidemiology of Shigella using highly sensitive diagnostic methods in 41,405 diarrheal and monthly non-diarrheal stools from the first two years of life in a multisite birth cohort. The prevalence of Shigella varied from 4.9%-17.8% across sites, and the incidence of Shigella-attributable diarrhea was 31.8 cases (95% CI: 29.6, 34.2) per 100 child-years. Shigella diarrhea episodes were more likely to be severe and less likely to be culture positive in younger children. Older age, unimproved sanitation, low maternal education, initiating complementary foods before 3 months, and malnutrition were risk factors for Shigella. There was a linear dose-response between Shigella quantity and myeloperoxidase, a marker of intestinal inflammation, which suggests a potential mechanism for the impact of Shigella on child growth. Because culture missed most clinically relevant cases of severe diarrhea and dysentery, molecular diagnostics may be important tools in upcoming Shigella vaccine trials.

Incidence and etiology of clinically-attended, antibiotic-treated diarrhea among children under five years of age in low- and middle-income countries: Evidence from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study

Diarrhea is a leading cause of antibiotic consumption among children in low- and middle-income countries. While vaccines may prevent diarrhea infections for which children often receive antibiotics, the contribution of individual enteropathogens to antibiotic use is minimally understood. We used data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to estimate pathogen-specific incidence of antibiotic-treated diarrhea among children under five years old residing in six countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia before rotavirus vaccine implementation. GEMS was an age-stratified, individually-matched case-control study. Stool specimens were obtained from children presenting to sentinel health clinics with newly-onset, acute diarrhea (including moderate-to-severe and less-severe diarrhea) as well as matched community controls without diarrhea. We used data from conventional and quantitative molecular diagnostic assays applied to stool specimens to estimate the proportion of antibiotic-treated diarrhea cases attributable to each pathogen. Antibiotics were administered or prescribed to 9,606 of 12,109 moderate-to-severe cases and 1,844 of 3,174 less-severe cases. Across all sites, incidence rates of clinically-attended, antibiotic-treated diarrhea were 12.2 (95% confidence interval: 9.0-17.8), 10.2 (7.4-13.9) and 1.9 (1.3-3.0) episodes per 100 child-years at risk at ages 6 weeks to 11 months, 12-23 months, and 24-59 months, respectively. Based on the recommendation for antibiotic treatment to be reserved for cases with dysentery, we estimated a ratio of 12.6 (8.6-20.8) inappropriately-treated diarrhea cases for each appropriately-treated case. Rotavirus, adenovirus serotypes 40/41, Shigella, sapovirus, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, and Cryptosporidium were the leading antibiotic-treated diarrhea etiologies. Rotavirus caused 29.2% (24.5-35.2%) of antibiotic-treated cases, including the largest share in both the first and second years of life. Shigella caused 14.9% (11.4-18.9%) of antibiotic-treated cases, and was the leading etiology at ages 24-59 months. Our findings should inform the prioritization of vaccines with the greatest potential to reduce antibiotic exposure among children.

Diarrheal Etiology and Impact of Coinfections on Rotavirus Vaccine Efficacy Estimates in a Clinical Trial of a Monovalent Human-Bovine (116E) Oral Rotavirus Vaccine, Rotavac, India

Background

Rotavirus vaccine efficacy (VE) estimates in low-resource settings are lower than in developed countries. We detected coinfections in cases of severe rotavirus diarrhea in a rotavirus VE trial to determine whether these negatively impacted rotavirus VE estimates.

Methods

We performed TaqMan Array Card assays for enteropathogens on stools from rotavirus enzyme immunoassay–positive diarrhea episodes and all severe episodes (Vesikari score ≥11), from a phase 3 VE trial of Rotavac, a monovalent human–bovine (116E) rotavirus vaccine, carried out across 3 sites in India. We estimated pathogen-specific etiologies of diarrhea, described associated clinical characteristics, and estimated the impact of coinfections on rotavirus VE using a test-negative design.

Results

A total of 1507 specimens from 1169 infants were tested for the presence of coinfections. Rotavirus was the leading cause of severe diarrhea even among vaccinated children, followed by adenovirus 40/41, Shigella/enteroinvasive Escherichia coli, norovirus GII, sapovirus, and Cryptosporidium species. Bacterial coinfections in rotavirus-positive diarrhea were associated with a longer duration of diarrhea and protozoal coinfections with increased odds of hospitalization. Using the test-negative design, rotavirus VE against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis increased from 49.3% to 60.6% in the absence of coinfections (difference, 11.3%; 95% confidence interval, –10.3% to 30.2%).

Conclusions

While rotavirus was the dominant etiology of severe diarrhea even in vaccinated children, a broad range of other etiologies was identified. Accounting for coinfections led to an 11.3% increase in the VE estimate. Although not statistically significant, an 11.3% decrease in VE due to presence of coinfections would explain an important fraction of the low rotavirus VE in this setting.

Etiology of diarrhea requiring hospitalization in Bangladesh by quantitative PCR, 2014-2018

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea remains a major public health problem and characterization of etiology is needed to prioritize interventions. However, most data are from single-site studies of children. We tested samples from participants of any age from 11 geographically diverse hospitals in Bangladesh to describe pathogen-specific burdens of diarrhea.

METHODS

We utilized two existing diarrhea surveillance systems: a Nationwide network at 10 sentinel hospitals and at the icddr,b hospital. We tested stools from enrolled participants and non-diarrheal controls for enteropathogens using quantitative PCR and calculated pathogen-specific attributable fractions (AFs) of diarrhea.

RESULTS

We analyzed 5516 diarrheal patients and 735 controls. Overall, rotavirus had the highest attributable burden of diarrhea (Nationwide AF 17.7%, 95% confidence interval: 14.3, 20.9; icddr,b AF 39.9%; 38.0, 41.8), followed by adenovirus 40/41 (Nationwide AF 17.9%, CI: 13.9, 21.9; icddr,b AF 16.6%; CI: 14.4, 19.4) and Vibrio cholerae (Nationwide AF 10.2%, CI: 9.1, 11.3; icddr,b AF 13.3%, CI: 11.9, 15.1). Rotavirus was the leading pathogen in children under 5 years of age and was consistent across the sites (coefficient of variation = 56.3%). Adenovirus 40/41 was the second leading pathogen in both children and adults. V. cholerae was the leading pathogen in individuals above 5 years old but was more geographically variable (coefficient of variation = 71.5%). Other attributable pathogens included astrovirus, norovirus, Shigella, Salmonella, ETEC, sapovirus, and typical EPEC.

CONCLUSIONS

Rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, and V. cholerae were the leading etiologies of infectious diarrhea requiring hospitalization in Bangladesh. Other pathogens were important in certain age groups or sites.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Meeting Report: WHO Workshop on modelling global mortality and aetiology estimates of enteric pathogens in children under five. Cape Town, 28-29th November 2018

Investment in vaccine product development should be guided by up-to-date and transparent global burden of disease estimates, which are also fundamental to policy recommendation and vaccine introduction decisions. For low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), vaccine prioritization is primarily driven by the number of deaths caused by different pathogens. Enteric diseases are known to be a major cause of death in LMICs. The two main modelling groups providing mortality estimates for enteric diseases are the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Seattle and the Maternal Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) group, led by Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Whilst previous global diarrhoea mortality estimates for under five-year-olds from these two groups were closely aligned, more recent estimates for 2016 have diverged, particularly with respect to numbers of deaths attributable to different enteric pathogens. This has impacted prioritization and investment decisions for vaccines in the development pipeline.

The mission of the Product Development for Vaccines Advisory Committee (PDVAC) at the World Health Organisation (WHO) is to accelerate product development of vaccines and technologies that are urgently needed and ensure they are appropriately targeted for use in LMICs. At their 2018 meeting, PDVAC recommended the formation of an independent working group of subject matter experts to explore the reasons for the difference between the IHME and MCEE estimates, and to assess the respective strengths and limitations of the estimation approaches adopted, including a review of the data on which the estimates are based.

Here, we report on the proceedings and recommendations from a consultation with the working group of experts, the IHME and MCEE modelling groups, and other key stakeholders. We briefly review the methodological approaches of both groups and provide a series of proposals for investigating the drivers for the differences in enteric disease burden estimates.

Impact of Water Quality, Sanitation, Handwashing, and Nutritional Interventions on Enteric Infections in Rural Zimbabwe: The Sanitation Hygiene Infant Nutrition Efficacy (SHINE) Trial

BACKGROUND

We assessed the impact of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and infant and young child feeding (IYCF) interventions on enteric infections in the Sanitation Hygiene Infant Nutrition Efficacy (SHINE) trial in rural Zimbabwe.

METHODS

We tested stool samples collected at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of age and during diarrhea using quantitative molecular diagnostics for 29 pathogens. We estimated the effects of the WASH, IYCF, and combined WASH + IYCF interventions on individual enteropathogen prevalence and quantity, total numbers of pathogens detected, and incidence of pathogen-attributable diarrhea.

RESULTS

WASH interventions decreased the number of parasites detected (difference in number compared to non-WASH arms, -0.07 [95% confidence interval, -.14 to -.02]), but had no statistically significant effects on bacteria, viruses, or the prevalence and quantity of individual enteropathogens after accounting for multiple comparisons. IYCF interventions had no significant effects on individual or total enteropathogens. Neither intervention had significant effects on pathogen-attributable diarrhea.

CONCLUSIONS

The WASH interventions implemented in SHINE (improved pit latrine, hand-washing stations, liquid soap, point-of-use water chlorination, and clean play space) did not prevent enteric infections. Transformative WASH interventions are needed that are more efficacious in interrupting fecal-oral microbial transmission in children living in highly contaminated environments.

Longitudinal Assessment of Antibiotic Resistance in Fecal Escherichia coli in Tanzanian Children

Antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections are a major public health problem, and children in low-resource settings represent a particularly high-risk group. Few data are available on the dynamics of and risk factors for gastrointestinal carriage of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in these vulnerable populations. In this study, we described the antibiotic susceptibility profiles of Escherichia coli isolated from stool specimens collected from children aged 6 to 60 months enrolled in a birth cohort study in Haydom, Tanzania. We estimated the association between sociodemographic risk factors, child illnesses, and antibiotic exposure and E. coli drug resistance. Carriage of antibiotic-resistant E. coli was common starting early in life and did not clearly increase with age. The majority of isolates were resistant to ampicillin (749/837; 89.5%), cefazolin (742/837; 88.6%), and cotrimoxazole (721/837; 86.1%). Resistance to amoxicillin/clavulanate (361/836; 43.2%), ampicillin/sulbactam (178/819; 21.7%), nalidixic acid (131/831; 15.8%), and azithromycin (115/837; 13.7%) was also seen. Only 1.8% (15/837) of the pooled E. coli isolates met the criteria for extended-spectrum beta-lactamase production. High antibiotic use (0.26 additional resistant antibiotic classes; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.47) and high income (0.28 additional resistant antibiotic classes; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.50) were associated with the carriage of antibiotic-resistant E. coli, whereas hospital birth, crowding in the home, improved drinking water and sanitation, and common childhood illnesses were not. In this setting, the carriage of antibiotic-resistant E. coli was common. Other than recent antibiotic exposure and high income, individual risk factors for the acquisition and carriage of resistance could not be identified, suggesting that population-level interventions are needed.

Seasonal Food Insecurity in Haydom, Tanzania, Is Associated with Low Birthweight and Acute Malnutrition: Results from the MAL-ED Study

In rural agricultural communities in Africa, particularly those with a single annual harvest, the preharvest period has been associated with increased food insecurity. We estimated the association between seasonal food insecurity and childhood malnutrition in Haydom, Tanzania. Children enrolled in a birth cohort study were followed twice weekly to document food intake and monthly for anthropometry until the age of 2 years. Household food insecurity was reported by caregivers every 6 months. We modeled the seasonality of food insecurity and food consumption, and estimated the impact of birth season on enrollment weight and subsequent malnutrition. Finally, we described the seasonality of admissions for acute malnutrition at a local referral hospital (Haydom Lutheran Hospital) from 2010 to 2015. Food insecurity was highly seasonal, with a peak from December to February. Children born during these 3 months had an average 0.35 z-score (95% CI: 0.12, 0.58) lower enrollment weight than children born in other months. In addition, weight-for-length z-scores measured in these months were on average 0.15 z-scores lower (95% CI: 0.10, 0.20) than that in other months, adjusting for enrollment weight and seasonal infectious diseases, and this disparity was sustained up to the age of 2 years. Correspondingly, the number of admissions with acute malnutrition at the local hospital was highest at this time, with twice as many cases in December–February compared with June–August. We identified acute and chronic malnutrition associated with seasonal food insecurity and intake. Targeting of prenatal care and child-feeding interventions during high food insecurity months may help reduce child malnutrition.

Determinants of Campylobacter infection and association with growth and enteric inflammation in children under 2 years of age in low-resource settings

Campylobacter species infections have been associated with malnutrition and intestinal inflammation among children in low-resource settings. However, it remains unclear whether that association is specific to Campylobacter jejuni/coli. The aim of this study was to assess the association between both all Campylobacter species infections and Campylobacter jejuni/coli infections on growth and enteric inflammation in children aged 1-24 months. We analyzed data from 1715 children followed from birth until 24 months of age in the MAL-ED birth cohort study, including detection of Campylobacter species by enzyme immunoassay and Campylobacter jejuni/coli by quantitative PCR in stool samples. Myeloperoxidase (MPO) concentration in stool, used as a quantitative index of enteric inflammation, was measured. The incidence rate per 100 child-months of infections with Campylobacter jejuni/coli and Campylobacter species during 1-24 month follow up were 17.7 and 29.6 respectively. Female sex of child, shorter duration of exclusive breastfeeding, lower maternal age, mother having less than 3 living children, maternal educational level of <6 years, lack of routine treatment of drinking water, and unimproved sanitation were associated with Campylobacter jejuni/coli infection. The cumulative burden of both Campylobacter jejuni/coli infections and Campylobacter species were associated with poor growth and increased intestinal inflammation.

Travelers' Diarrhea in Thailand: A Quantitative Analysis Using TaqMan® Array Card

Background

Travelers' diarrhea (TD) is a common illness experienced by travelers from developed countries who visit developing countries. Recent questionnaire-based surveillance studies showed that approximately 6%-16% of travelers experienced TD while visiting Thailand; however, a majority of TD information was limited mainly to US military populations.

Methods

A TD surveillance study was conducted at Bumrungrad International Hospital in 2012-2014 in Bangkok, Thailand. Enteropathogens were identified using conventional methods and the TaqMan® array card (TAC), which uses real-time polymerase chain reaction for the simultaneous detection of multiple pathogens. Analyses to determine pathogen-disease and symptoms association were performed to elucidate the clinical relevance of each enteropathogen.

Results

TAC identified more pathogens per sample than conventional methods. Campylobacter spp. were the most prevalent, followed by the diarrheagenic Escherichia coli and norovirus GII. These agents had significant pathogen-disease associations as well as high attributable fractions among diarrheal cases. A wide range of pathogen loads for Campylobacter spp. was associated with TD, while heat-labile toxin enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli was associated with an increased pathogen load. Most cases were associated with inflammatory diarrhea, while Campylobacter spp. and Shigella spp. were associated with dysentery.

Conclusions

A pan-molecular diagnostic method such as TAC produces quantifiable and comparable results of all tested pathogens, thereby reducing the variability associated with multiple conventional methods. This allows better determination of the clinical relevance of each diarrhea etiologic agent, as well as their geographical relevance in Thailand.

A Healthcare Improvement Intervention Combining Nucleic Acid Microarray Testing With Direct Physician Response for Management of Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia

Background

Nucleic acid microarray (NAM) testing for detection of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) and S. aureus resistance gene determinants can reduce time to targeted antibiotic administration. Evidence-based management of SAB includes bedside infectious diseases (ID) consultation. As a healthcare improvement initiative at our institution, with the goal of improving management and outcomes for subjects with SAB, we implemented NAM with a process for responding to positive NAM results by directly triggered, mandatory ID consultation.

Methods

Preintervention, SAB was identified by traditional culture and results passively directed to antibiotic stewardship program (ASP) pharmacists. Postintervention, SAB in adult inpatients was identified by Verigene Gram-Positive Blood Culture test, results paged directly to ID fellow physicians, and consultation initiated immediately. In the new process, ASP assisted with management after the initial consultation. A single-center, retrospective, pre-/postintervention analysis was performed.

Results

One hundred six preintervention and 120 postintervention subjects were assessed. Time to ID consultation after notification of a positive blood culture decreased 26.0 hours (95% confidence interval [CI], 45.1 to 7.1 hours, P < .001) postintervention compared with preintervention. Time to initiation of targeted antibiotic decreased by a mean of 21.2 hours (95% CI, 31.4 to 11.0 hours, P < .001) and time to targeted antibiotics for methicillin-sensitive S. aureus decreased by a mean of 40.7 hours (95% CI, 58.0 to 23.5 hours, P < .001). The intervention was associated with lower in-hospital (13.2% to 5.8%, P = .047) and 30-day (17.9% to 8.3%, P = .025) mortality.

Conclusions

Compared with an ASP-directed response to traditionally detected SAB, an efficient physician response to NAM was associated with improved care and outcomes for SAB.