Association of Youth Triponderal Mass Index vs Body Mass Index With Obesity-Related Outcomes in Adulthood

This study assesses whether triponderal mass index vs body mass index in youths is more useful in determining obesity-related outcomes in adulthood.

Success in Achieving the Targets of the 20-Year Infancy-Onset Dietary Intervention: Association With Insulin Sensitivity and Serum Lipids

OBJECTIVE

We examined whether success in achieving the key targets of an infancy-onset 20-year dietary intervention associated with insulin sensitivity and serum lipids from early childhood to young adulthood.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The sample comprised 941 children participating in the prospective, randomized Special Turku Coronary Risk Factor Intervention Project (STRIP). Dietary counseling was given biannually based on the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations with the main aim to improve the quality of dietary fat in children's diets and the secondary aim to promote intake of vegetables, fruits, and whole-grain products. Food records and serum lipid profile were studied annually from 1 to 20 years of age, and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) was assessed between 7 and 20 years of age. Meeting the intervention targets for quality of dietary fat was defined as the ratio of saturated fatty acids (SAFA) to monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids (MUFA + PUFA) <1:2 and intake of SAFA <10% of total energy intake (E%). Meeting the target for intake of whole-grain products, fruits, and vegetables was indicated by a fiber intake ≥3 g/MJ.

RESULTS

Participants in the intervention group had a higher probability of meeting the targets of SAFA/(PUFA + MUFA) <1:2 (risk ratio [RR] 3.91 [95% CI 3.33-4.61]), intake of SAFA <10 E% (RR 3.33 [95% CI 2.99-3.96]), and intake of fiber >3 g/MJ (RR 1.37 [95% CI 1.04-1.80]). Participants who achieved more targets had lower HOMA-IR, lower concentrations of fasting serum glucose, insulin, LDL cholesterol, and non-HDL cholesterol, and a lower ratio of apolipoprotein (Apo) B/ApoA1 (P values all ≤0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving the key targets of an infancy-onset 20-year dietary intervention was associated with better insulin sensitivity and serum lipid profile throughout the early life course.

Low childhood high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and subsequent risk for chronic inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several genetic and environmental risk factors have been linked to chronic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The incidence of IBD has significantly increased in developed countries during last decades. The aim of the present study was to examine childhood risk factors for subsequent IBD diagnosis in a longitudinal cohort study of children and adolescents.

METHODS

A Finnish study population consisting of 3551 children and adolescents originally evaluated as part of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study in 1980. At baseline, participant BMI, insulin, lipid, C-reactive protein and blood pressure levels, socioeconomic position, dietary habits, and physical activity, were evaluated. In addition, information was gathered on rural residency, severe infections, breast feeding, parental smoking and birth weight. Subsequent IBD diagnosis status was evaluated based on nationwide registries on hospitalisations and drug imbursement decisions.

RESULTS

Altogether, 49 participants (1.4%) had IBD diagnosed during the 34 years of register follow-up, of which 31 had ulcerative colitis, 12 Crohn's disease and 6 undetermined colitis. In univariate analyses, significant correlations were observed between childhood HDL-cholesterol (risk ratio (95% CI) for 1-SD change (0.58 (0.42-0.79)) and CRP concentrations (1.20 (1.01-1.43)) with IBD. The inverse association between HDL-cholesterol and IBD remained significant (0.57 (0.39-0.82)) in a multivariable model including data on age, sex and CRP. In addition, a weighted genetic z-score of 71 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with elevated HDL-cholesterol levels was significantly lower in IBD patients, P=0.01).

CONCLUSION

Low childhood HDL-cholesterol levels are associated with subsequent IBD diagnosis. In addition, a genetic risk score associated with low HDL-cholesterol levels predict later IBD suggesting that HDL-cholesterol metabolism might have a role in the pathogenesis of IBD.

Both youth and long-term vitamin D status is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in adulthood: a cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether vitamin D status in childhood and adolescence (herein collectively referred to as youth) and the long-term status from youth to adulthood is associated with risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in adulthood.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a 31-year follow-up study of 2300 participants aged 3-18 years. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association of both (a) baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels and (b) the mean of baseline and the latest follow-up 25OHD levels (continuous variable and quartiles) with incident T2DM and IFG (cut-off = 5.6 mmol/L) in adult life.

RESULTS

High serum 25OHD levels in youth and also mean values from youth to adulthood were associated with reduced risk of developing T2DM in adulthood (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval= 0.73, 0.57-0.95 and 0.65, 0.51-0.84, respectively, for each SD increment in 25OHD). Compared to Q1, a dose-dependent negative association was observed across other quartiles of youth 25OHD, while the strongest association was found in the Q3 for the mean 25OHD levels. Neither youth nor the mean 25OHD was associated with IFG.

CONCLUSIONS

High serum 25OHD levels in youth, and from child to adult life, were associated with a reduced risk of developing T2DM in adulthood. Key Messages High serum 25OHD levels in youth, and between youth and adulthood, were associated with a lower risk of T2DM in adulthood. Each SD (15.2 nmol/L) increment in youth serum 25OHD levels was associated with a 26% reduction in odds for T2DM, which was independent of a number of confounding variables and other risk factors for T2DM. A similar magnitude of association was observed for the long-term 25OHD levels between youth and adulthood. These findings suggest a potentially simple and cost-effective strategy for reducing adulthood risk of T2DM starting in an earlier stage of life - improving and maintaining vitamin D status throughout youth and early adulthood.

BMI Trajectories Associated With Resolution of Elevated Youth BMI and Incident Adult Obesity

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Youth with high BMI who become nonobese adults have the same cardiovascular risk factor burden as those who were never obese. However, the early-life BMI trajectories for overweight or obese youth who avoid becoming obese adults have not been described. We aimed to determine and compare the young-childhood BMI trajectories of participants according to their BMI status in youth and adulthood.

METHODS

Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression modeling was used to analyze the BMI trajectories of 2717 young adults who had up to 8 measures of BMI from childhood (ages 3-18 years) to adulthood (ages 34-49 years).

RESULTS

Compared with those with persistently high BMI, those who resolved their high youth BMI by adulthood had lower average BMI at age 6 years and slower rates of BMI change from young childhood. In addition, their BMI levels started to plateau at 16 years old for females and 21 years old for males, whereas the BMI of those whose high BMI persisted did not stabilize until 25 years old for male subjects and 27 years for female subjects. Compared with those youth who were not overweight or obese and who remained nonobese in adulthood, those who developed obesity had a higher BMI rate of change from 6 years old, and their BMI continued to increase linearly until age 30 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts to alter BMI trajectories for adult obesity should ideally commence before age 6 years. The natural resolution of high BMI starts in adolescence for males and early adulthood for females, suggesting a critical window for secondary prevention.

Impact of Lipid Measurements in Youth in Addition to Conventional Clinic-Based Risk Factors on Predicting Preclinical Atherosclerosis in Adulthood: International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort Consortium

BACKGROUND

Data suggest that the prediction of adult cardiovascular disease using a model comprised entirely of adult nonlaboratory-based risk factors is equivalent to an approach that additionally incorporates adult lipid measures. We assessed and compared the utility of a risk model based solely on nonlaboratory risk factors in adolescence versus a lipid model based on nonlaboratory risk factors plus lipids for predicting high-risk carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in adulthood.

METHODS

The study comprised 2893 participants 12 to 18 years of age from 4 longitudinal cohort studies from the United States (Bogalusa Heart Study and the Insulin Study), Australia (Childhood Determinants of Adult Health Study), and Finland (The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study) and followed into adulthood when cIMT was measured (mean follow-up, 23.4 years). Overweight status was defined according to the Cole classification. Hypertension was defined according to the Fourth Report on High Blood Pressure in Children and Adolescents from the National High Blood Pressure Education Program. High-risk plasma lipid levels were defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Cholesterol Levels in Children. High cIMT was defined as a study-specific value ≥90th percentile. Age and sex were included in each model.

RESULTS

In univariate models, all risk factors except for borderline high and high triglycerides in adolescence were associated with high cIMT in adulthood. In multivariable models (relative risk [95% confidence interval]), male sex (2.7 [2.0-2.6]), prehypertension (1.4 [1.0-1.9]), hypertension (1.9 [1.3-2.9]), overweight (2.0 [1.4-2.9]), obesity (3.7 [2.0-7.0]), borderline high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.6 [1.2-2.2]), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.6 [1.1-2.1]), and borderline low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.4 [1.0-1.8]) remained significant predictors of high cIMT (P<0.05). The addition of lipids into the nonlaboratory risk model slightly but significantly improved discrimination in predicting high cIMT compared with nonlaboratory-based risk factors only (C statistics for laboratory-based model 0.717 [95% confidence interval, 0.685-0.748] and for nonlaboratory 0.698 [95% confidence interval, 0.667-0.731]; P=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Nonlaboratory-based risk factors and lipids measured in adolescence independently predicted preclinical atherosclerosis in young adulthood. The addition of lipid measurements to traditional clinic-based risk factor assessment provided a statistically significant but clinically modest improvement on adolescent prediction of high cIMT in adulthood.

Pregnancy complications and later vascular ultrasound measures: A cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Pregnancy complications predict or even predispose to later cardiovascular disease in the mother. We examined whether pregnancy complications are associated with post-pregnancy measures of endothelial dysfunction and arterial stiffness.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort; Data for 847 women female participants in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study were linked with the national birth registry. Preterm birth (<37weeks), low birthweight (<2500g), small-for-gestational-age (weight <10th percentile for gestational age), and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were examined as predictors of later vascular measures.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), Young's elastic modulus (YEM), and carotid artery distensibility.

RESULTS

In some analyses, gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia were associated with increased YEM. Low birthweight was also associated with an increase in IMT, and this increased risk was present prior to the pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased cardiovascular risk in the mother observed after low birthweight and hypertensive disorders may be due to vascular changes, and some of this increased risk may be present before pregnancy.

Aortic sinus diameter in middle age is associated with body size in young adulthood

OBJECTIVE

Aortic sinus dilatation can lead to aortic valve regurgitation or even aortic dissection. Our objective was to examine the association between body surface area (BSA) measures from childhood to middle age and aortic sinus diameter in middle age. Understanding the relation of these two clarifies how aortic size is normally determined.

METHODS

Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study is a longitudinal study with follow-up of over 31 years (1980-2011). The study comprises information of body composition from multiple time points of 1950 subjects with cardiac ultrasound measurements made in 2011. The association between BSA in different ages and aortic sinus diameter in middle age was analysed by linear regression modelling adjusted with age, sex and diastolic blood pressure. Missing BSA values were derived for each life year (ages 3-33 years) from subject-specific curves for body weight and height estimated from longitudinal measurements using mixed model regression splines.

RESULTS

BSA estimates in early 20s are most strongly associated with aortic sinus diameter in middle age. Top association was observed at age 23 years with one SD increase in estimated BSA corresponding to 1.04 mm (0.87-1.21 mm) increase in aortic diameter. Increase in body weight beyond early 20s does not associate with aortic sinus diameter, and the association between middle age BSA and aortic size is substantially weaker (0.74 mm increase (0.58-0.89 mm)). These results were confirmed in a subpopulation using only measured data.

CONCLUSION

The association between aortic sinus diameter and BSA is stronger when considering BSA in young adulthood compared with BSA in middle age.

Longitudinal physical activity trajectories from childhood to adulthood and their determinants: The Young Finns Study

Determining lifelong physical activity (PA) trajectories and their determinants is essential to promote a physically active lifestyle throughout the life-course. We aimed to identify PA trajectories from childhood to midlife and their determinants in a longitudinal population-based cohort. This study is a part of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. From 1980, a population-based cohort (N = 3596; 1764 boys/1832 girls, age 3-18 years) has been followed up for 31 years. PA indices were formed based on self-reported data (between age 9-49 years) on frequency, duration, and intensity of leisure (during childhood) or high-intensity (at later age) PA and on sports club participation/competitions. PA trajectories were analyzed using group-based trajectory modeling. Childhood (age 12 years), young adulthood (age 24 years), and early midlife (age 37 years) determinants were analyzed. Five PA trajectories were identified: persistently active (6.6%), decreasingly active (13.9%), increasingly active (13.5%), persistently low active (51.4%, reference group), persistently inactive (14.6%). In childhood, rural residential area (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.21-0.96) and high academic performance (OR 2.18; 95% CI 1.58-3.00) associated with persistently active group. In early midlife, smoking (OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.07-2.58) associated with persistently inactive group, regular alcohol drinking (OR 2.91; 95% CI 1.12-7.55) with persistently active group and having children (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.27-3.38) with decreasingly active group. High adulthood education associated with both decreasingly (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.05-3.35) and increasingly (OR 2.09; 95% CI 1.19-3.68) active groups. We identified five PA trajectories from childhood into midlife. Most prominent determinants were academic achievement, education, having children and health habits (i.e. smoking/alcohol use).

Childhood Age and Associations Between Childhood Metabolic Syndrome and Adult Risk for Metabolic Syndrome, Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Carotid Intima Media Thickness: The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort Consortium

Background

There is paucity of knowledge concerning the specific age in youth when the associations of metabolic syndrome (MetS) begin to be operative. Thus, we investigated the relation of age to the associations of childhood MetS with adult MetS, type 2 diabetes mellitus and high carotid intima‐media thickness.

Methods and Results

Five thousand eight‐hundred three participants were analyzed in 4 cohort studies (Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns, Bogalusa Heart Study, Princeton Lipid Research Study, Insulin Study). International cutoffs and previously used 75th percentile cutoffs were used for children to define MetS and its components. Mean follow‐up period was 22.3 years. Logistic regression was used to calculate risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Childhood MetS and overweight were associated with over 2.4‐fold risk for adult MetS from the age of 5 years onward. Risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus was increased from the age of 8 (risk ratio, 2.6–4.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.35–6.76 and 1.12–7.24, respectively) onward for the 2 childhood MetS criteria based on international cut‐off values and for childhood overweight. Risk for high carotid intima‐media thickness was significant at ages 11 to 18 years in relation to childhood MetS or overweight (risk ratio, 2.44–4.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.55–3.55 and 2.55–5.66, respectively). Continuous childhood MetS score was associated with adult MetS from the age of 5, with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the age of 14 and with high carotid intima‐media thickness from the age of 11 years onward.

Conclusions

Adult MetS was predicted by MetS in childhood beginning at age 5. However, adult type 2 diabetes mellitus and subclinical atherosclerosis were not predicted by childhood data until after age 8. Body mass index measurement alone at the same age points provided similar findings.

Childhood Socioeconomic Status and Arterial Stiffness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

Increasing evidence supports the importance of socioeconomic factors in the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. However, the association of childhood socioeconomic status (SES) with arterial stiffness in adulthood has not been reported. Our aim was to determine whether higher childhood family-level SES is associated with lower arterial stiffness in adulthood. The analyses were performed using data gathered within the longitudinal Young Finns Study. The sample comprised 2566 participants who had data concerning family SES at ages 3 to 18 years in 1980 and arterial pulse wave velocity and carotid artery distensibility measured 21 or 27 years later in adulthood. Higher family SES in childhood was associated with lower arterial stiffness in adulthood; carotid artery distensibility being higher (β value±SE, 0.029±0.0089%/10 mm Hg; P=0.001) and pulse wave velocity lower (β value±SE, -0.062±0.022 m/s; P=0.006) among those with higher family SES in a multivariable analysis adjusted with age, sex, and conventional childhood cardiometabolic risk factors. The association remained significant after further adjustment for participant's SES in adulthood (β value±SE, 0.026±0.010%/10 mm Hg; P=0.01 for carotid artery distensibility and β value±SE, -0.048±0.023 m/s; P=0.04 for pulse wave velocity) but attenuated after adjustment for adulthood cardiometabolic risk factors (β value±SE, 0.015±0.008%/10 mm Hg; P=0.08 for carotid artery distensibility and β value±SE, -0.019±0.02 m/s; P=0.38 for pulse wave velocity). In conclusion, we observed an association between higher family SES in childhood and lower arterial stiffness in adulthood. Our findings suggest that special attention could be paid to children from low SES families to prevent cardiometabolic diseases primordially.

Association of Socioeconomic Status in Childhood With Left Ventricular Structure and Diastolic Function in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

IMPORTANCE

Increased left ventricular (LV) mass and diastolic dysfunction are associated with cardiovascular disease. Prospective data on effects of childhood socioeconomic status (SES) on measures of LV structure and function are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether family SES in childhood was associated with LV mass and diastolic function after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular disease risk factors in childhood and adulthood.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The analyses were performed in 2016 using data gathered in 1980 and 2011 within the longitudinal population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. The sample comprised 1871 participants who reported family SES at ages 3 to 18 years and were evaluated for LV structure and function 31 years later.

EXPOSURES

Socioeconomic status was characterized as annual income of the family and classified on a 3-point scale.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Left ventricular mass indexed according to height at the allometric power of 2.7 and the E/e' ratio describing LV diastolic performance at ages 34 to 49 years.

RESULTS

The participants were aged 3 to 18 years at baseline (mean [SD], 10.8 [5.0] years), and the length of follow-up was 31 years. Family SES was inversely associated with LV mass (mean [SD] LV mass index, 31.8 [6.7], 31.0 [6.6], and 30.1 [6.4] g/m2.7 in the low, medium, and high SES groups, respectively; differences [95% CI], 1.7 [0.6 to 2.8] for low vs high SES; 0.8 [-0.3 to 1.9] for low vs medium; and 0.9 [0.1 to 1.6] for medium vs high; overall P = .001) and E/e' ratio (mean [SD] E/e' ratio, 5.0 [1.0], 4.9 [1.0], and 4.7 [1.0] in the low, medium, and high SES groups, respectively; differences [95% CI], 0.3 [0.1 to 0.4] for low vs high SES; 0.1 [-0.1 to 0.3] for low vs medium; and 0.2 [0 to 0.3] for medium vs high; overall P < .001) in adulthood. After adjustment for age, sex, and conventional cardiovascular disease risk factors in childhood and adulthood, and participants' own SES in adulthood, the relationship with LV mass (differences [95% CI], 1.5 [0.2 to 2.8] for low vs high SES; 1.3 [0 to 2.6] for low vs medium; and 0.2 [-0.6 to 1.0] for medium vs high; P = .03) and E/e' ratio (differences [95% CI], 0.2 [0 to 0.5] for low vs high SES; 0.1 [-0.1 to 0.4] for low vs medium; and 0.1 [0 to 0.3] for medium vs high; P = .02) remained significant.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Low family SES was associated with increased LV mass and impaired diastolic performance more than 3 decades later. These findings emphasize that approaches of cardiovascular disease prevention must be directed also to the family environment of the developing child.

Exposure to Parental Smoking in Childhood is Associated with High C-Reactive Protein in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

Aim: Children exposed to parental smoking are at increased long-term risk of subclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. However, it has not been quantified if exposure to parental smoking in childhood is associated with adult systemic inflammation. This study aimed to determine if childhood exposure to parental smoking was associated with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in adulthood.

Methods: This longitudinal analysis of 2,511 participants used data from the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study, a prospective cohort of Finnish children. In 1980 or 1983, parents self-reported their smoking status and serum hsCRP was collected up to 31 years later in adulthood.

Results: Compared with children with non-smoking parents, the relative risk of developing high hsCRP (> 3 mg/L) in adulthood increased among those with 1 or both parents who smoked [relative risk (RR), 1.3; 95%confidence interval (CI), 1.0–1.8] after adjustment for socioeconomic status, cardiovascular risk factors, and smoking status in childhood and adulthood. Moreover, children exposed to mother smoking [RR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3–4.2] had highest risk of developing high hsCRP in adulthood compared with those exposed to father smoking [RR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2–2.3] and both parents smoking [RR, 1.4; 95% CI, 0.9–2.0].

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that children exposed to parental smoking are at increased risk of having high hsCRP in adulthood. Limiting children's exposure to passive smoking may have long-term benefits on general low-grade inflammation.

Influence of Child and Adult Elevated Blood Pressure on Adult Arterial Stiffness: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

Elevated blood pressure (BP) in childhood has been associated with increased adult arterial stiffness, the independent predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The favorable BP change from childhood to adulthood and the risk of high adult arterial stiffness has not been reported. We examined the effect of child and adult BP on pulse wave velocity (PWV) assessed in adulthood among 1540 white adults followed-up for 27 years since baseline (1980, aged 6-18 years). Childhood elevated BP was defined according to the tables from the National High Blood Pressure Education Program. In adulthood, BP was classified as elevated if systolic BP ≥120 mm Hg, diastolic BP ≥80 mm Hg, or self-reported use of antihypertensive medications. PWV was measured in 2007 by whole-body impedance cardiography, and high PWV was defined as values at or above the age-, sex-, and heart rate-specific 80th percentile. Individuals with persistently elevated BP and individuals with normal child but elevated adult BP had increased risk of high adult PWV (relative risk [95% confidence interval], 3.18 [2.22-4.55] and 2.64 [1.79-3.88], respectively) in comparison with individuals with normal (both child and adult) BP. In contrast, individuals with elevated BP in childhood but not in adulthood did not have significantly increased risk of high PWV (relative risk [95% confidence interval], 1.26[0.80-1.99]). The results were consistent when different definitions for child and adult elevated BP were applied. These findings highlight the importance of BP control in the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

Cardiometabolic Determinants of Carotid and Aortic Distensibility From Childhood to Early Adulthood

Children who are obese or have familial hypercholesterolemia have stiffer arteries compared with lean, healthy peers. Limited data are, however, available on the association of cardiometabolic risk markers and arterial distensibility in healthy children, particularly in a longitudinal setting. Therefore, we studied in the prospective STRIP (Special Turku Coronary Risk Factor Intervention Project) comprising healthy, predominantly normal weight participants the association of several cardiometabolic and dietary risk markers with arterial distensibility from childhood to early adulthood. Carotid and aortic distensibility (cdist, adist) was assessed repeatedly with ultrasonography at the age of 11, 13, 15, 17, and 19 years in the longitudinal atherosclerosis prevention study (n_cdist=420-503, n_adist=407-476). Data on cardiometabolic risk markers and diet were available since early childhood. In multivariable analyses, body mass index (β=-0.0019 [SE 0.0085]; P=0.037), systolic blood pressure (β=-0.0025 [SE 0.00065]; P=0.0001), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (β=-0.026 [SE 0.012]; P=0.034), and homeostasis model of insulin resistance (β=-0.048 [SE 0.018]; P=0.0071) were independently associated with carotid distensibility. Systolic blood pressure (β=-0.0069 [SE 0.00097]; P<0.0001) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (β=-0.039 [SE 0.018]; P=0.031) associated independently with aortic distensibility. Dietary variables were not independently associated with arterial distensibility. Participants with low arterial distensibility had higher body mass index (P_cdist=0.0090, P_adist=0.098) and higher systolic (P_cdist<0.0001, P_adist<0.0001) and diastolic blood pressures (P_cdist<0.0001, P_adist=0.0002) already from early childhood. Body mass index, blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and homeostasis model of insulin resistance identified since childhood associate with arterial distensibility in healthy children and adolescents. These data support the relevance of these factors as part of primordial prevention.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00223600.

Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression models: a tool to detect trajectory divergence between groups in long-term observational studies

Background

Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression (BHPR) modeling has not been previously formulated to detect and characterise the mechanism of trajectory divergence between groups of participants that have longitudinal responses with distinct developmental phases. These models are useful when participants in a prospective cohort study are grouped according to a distal dichotomous health outcome. Indeed, a refined understanding of how deleterious risk factor profiles develop across the life-course may help inform early-life interventions. Previous techniques to determine between-group differences in risk factors at each age may result in biased estimate of the age at divergence.

Methods

We demonstrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression (BHPR) to generate a point estimate and credible interval for the age at which trajectories diverge between groups for continuous outcome measures that exhibit non-linear within-person response profiles over time. We illustrate our approach by modeling the divergence in childhood-to-adulthood body mass index (BMI) trajectories between two groups of adults with/without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (YFS).

Results

Using the proposed BHPR approach, we estimated the BMI profiles of participants with T2DM diverged from healthy participants at age 16 years for males (95% credible interval (CI):13.5–18 years) and 21 years for females (95% CI: 19.5–23 years). These data suggest that a critical window for weight management intervention in preventing T2DM might exist before the age when BMI growth rate is naturally expected to decrease. Simulation showed that when using pairwise comparison of least-square means from categorical mixed models, smaller sample sizes tended to conclude a later age of divergence. In contrast, the point estimate of the divergence time is not biased by sample size when using the proposed BHPR method.

Conclusions

BHPR is a powerful analytic tool to model long-term non-linear longitudinal outcomes, enabling the identification of the age at which risk factor trajectories diverge between groups of participants. The method is suitable for the analysis of unbalanced longitudinal data, with only a limited number of repeated measures per participants and where the time-related outcome is typically marked by transitional changes or by distinct phases of change over time.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0358-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Low serum adiponectin levels in childhood and adolescence predict increased intima-media thickness in adulthood. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

INTRODUCTION

Low adiponectin levels may predict the development of atherosclerosis. We examined the association of childhood adiponectin with preclinical carotid atherosclerosis that is defined as plaque and/or high (≥95th percentile) intima-media thickness (IMT) at the carotid bifurcation in adulthood.

METHODS

The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study is a cohort study on cardiovascular risk factors. We used risk factor data from the baseline study (1980) and ultrasound findings from the follow-ups (2001 and 2007). The study population included 1708 participants, aged 3-18 years at baseline.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, childhood adiponectin was inversely associated with preclinical carotid atherosclerosis: odds ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-0.86, p = .001, for 1-SD increase in childhood adiponectin after adjusting for childhood non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, and blood pressure. When examining the incremental predictive ability, we observed that compared to an approach utilizing only conventional risk factors, the model additionally including adiponectin levels improved c-statistics area under curve from 0.733 (95% Cl 0.694-0.771) to 0.748 (95% Cl 0.710-0.786), p = .02.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood adiponectin levels improve the prediction of carotid atherosclerosis in adulthood over conventional risk factors. This supports the idea that low adiponectin levels may have a role in the development of preclinical atherosclerosis. Key messages Childhood adiponectin levels improve the prediction of increased carotid intima-media thickness in adulthood over conventional cardiovascular risk factors. These results suggest that adiponectin levels measured in childhood may have a role in the atherosclerotic process.

Childhood Socioeconomic Status in Predicting Metabolic Syndrome and Glucose Abnormalities in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

OBJECTIVE

We prospectively examined whether family socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood is associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS), impaired fasting glucose (IFG), or type 2 diabetes in adulthood.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The sample comprised 2,250 participants from the longitudinal Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study cohort. Participants were 3-18 years old at baseline (mean age 10.6 years), and they were followed for 31 years. SES was characterized as reported annual income of the family and classified on an 8-point scale.

RESULTS

For each 1-unit increase in family SES in childhood, the risk for adult MetS decreased (risk ratio [95% confidence interval] 0.94 [0.90-0.98]; P = 0.003) when adjusted for age, sex, childhood cardiometabolic risk factors (lipids, systolic blood pressure, insulin, and BMI), childhood physical activity, and fruit and vegetable consumption. The association remained after adjustment for participants' own SES in adulthood (0.95 [0.91-0.99]; P = 0.005). A similar association was seen between childhood SES and the risk of having either adult IFG or type 2 diabetes (0.96 [0.92-0.99]; P = 0.01, age and sex adjusted). This association became nonsignificant after adjustment for childhood risk factors (P = 0.08). Of the individual components of MetS, lower SES in childhood predicted large waist circumference (0.96 [0.93-0.99]; P = 0.003) and a high triglycerides concentration (0.96 [0.92-1.00]; P = 0.04) after adjustment for the aforementioned risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower SES in childhood may be associated with an increased risk for MetS, IFG, and type 2 diabetes in adulthood. Special attention could be paid to children of low SES families to decrease the prevalence of MetS in adulthood.

Vascular ultrasound measures before pregnancy and pregnancy complications: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the relationship between pre-pregnancy indicators of cardiovascular risk and pregnancy complications and outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

Data from 359 female participants in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study were linked with the national birth registry. Flow-mediated dilatation (FMD; maximum change in the left brachial artery diameter after rest and hyperemia); carotid intima-media thickness (IMT); Young's elastic modulus (YEM); and carotid artery distensibility (Cdist) at the visit prior to the pregnancy were examined as predictors of hypertensive disorders, birthweight, and gestational age using multivariable linear regression with adjustment for confounders (age, BMI, smoking, and socioeconomic status).

RESULTS

No relations were seen between FMD, IMT, or the stiffness indices, and hypertensive disorders. Higher pre-pregnancy FMD was associated with lower gestational age, while increased Cdist was associated with reduced birthweight-for-gestational-age.

CONCLUSIONS

Some cardiovascular ultrasound measures of pre-pregnancy may predict pregnancy complications, but the association is likely to be small.

Childhood predictors of adult fatty liver. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Fatty liver is a potentially preventable cause of serious liver diseases. This longitudinal study aimed to identify childhood risk factors of fatty liver in adulthood in a population-based group of Finnish adults.

METHODS

Study cohort included 2,042 individuals from the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study aged 3-18years at baseline in 1980. During the latest follow-up in 2011, the liver was scanned by ultrasound. In addition to physical and environmental factors related to fatty liver, we examined whether the genetic risk posed by a single nucleotide polymorphism in the patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 gene (PNPLA3) (rs738409) strengthens prediction of adult fatty liver.

RESULTS

Independent childhood predictors of adult fatty liver were small for gestational age, (odds ratio=1.71, 95% confidence interval=1.07-2.72), variant in PNPLA3 (1.63, 1.29-2.07 per one risk allele), variant in the transmembrane 6 superfamily 2 gene (TM6SF2) (1.57, 1.08-2.30), BMI (1.30, 1.07-1.59 per standard deviation) and insulin (1.25, 1.05-1.49 per standard deviation). Childhood blood pressure, physical activity, C-reactive protein, smoking, serum lipid levels or parental lifestyle factors did not predict fatty liver. Risk assessment based on childhood age, sex, BMI, insulin levels, birth weight, TM6SF2 and PNPLA3 was superior in predicting fatty liver compared with the approach using only age, sex, BMI and insulin levels (C statistics, 0.725 vs. 0.749; p=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood risk factors on the development of fatty liver were small for gestational age, high insulin and high BMI. Prediction of adult fatty liver was enhanced by taking into account genetic variants in PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 genes.

LAY SUMMARY

The increase in pediatric obesity emphasizes the importance of identification of children and adolescents at high risk of fatty liver in adulthood. We used data from the longitudinal Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study to examine the associations of childhood (3-18years) risk variables with fatty liver assessed in adulthood at the age of 34-49years. The findings suggest that a multifactorial approach with both lifestyle and genetic factors included would improve early identification of children with a high risk of adult fatty liver.

Tracking of Television Viewing Time during Adulthood: The Young Finns Study

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to investigate the tracking of television viewing (TV) time as an indicator of sedentary behavior among adults for a period of 25 yr.

METHODS

A random sample of 1601 subjects (740 men) age 18, 21, and 24 yr participated in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study in 1986. TV time during leisure time was measured with a single self-report question at baseline and in 2001, 2007, and 2011. Tracking of TV time was analyzed using Spearman rank correlations and simplex models. Level and change of TV time were examined using linear growth modeling.

RESULTS

The 4- and 6-yr integrated TV time stability coefficients, adjusted for measurement errors, were ≥0.60 in adulthood and quite similar for both men and women. The stability coefficients tended to decline as the time interval increased. The stability of the indirect estimation of TV time for a 25-yr period was moderately or highly significant for both genders in most age groups. Younger age, but not gender, was found to be associated with a higher initial level of TV time. Male gender and older age were found to be significantly associated with the slope of TV time.

CONCLUSION

The stability of TV time is predominantly moderate to high during adulthood and varies somewhat by age and gender.

Role of Conventional Childhood Risk Factors Versus Genetic Risk in the Development of Type 2 Diabetes and Impaired Fasting Glucose in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

OBJECTIVE

We examined whether the addition of novel genetic risk variant data to conventional childhood risk factors improves risk assessment of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and type 2 diabetes in adulthood.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

An association of a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) based on 73 risk variants with IFG and type 2 diabetes was analyzed in 2,298 participants of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study who were followed for 24-31 years from childhood to adulthood. In addition, the value of the wGRS in pediatric prediction of type 2 diabetes was examined.

RESULTS

Of the 2,298 participants, 484 (21.8%) and 79 (3.4%) had IFG or type 2 diabetes in adulthood, respectively. Adjusting for age, sex, baseline BMI, parental diabetes, mother's BMI, fasting insulin concentration, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status, wGRS was associated with an increased risk of IFG (odds ratio 1.64 [95% CI 1.33-2.01] per unit increase in the wGRS) and type 2 diabetes (2.22 [1.43-3.44]). Incorporating wGRS into pediatric risk models improved model discrimination and reclassification properties. Area under the receiver operating curve improved for IFG (from 0.678 to 0.691, P = 0.015), combined IFG and type 2 diabetes outcome (from 0.678 to 0.692, P = 0.007), and type 2 diabetes (from 0.728 to 0.749, P = 0.158). The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were significant for all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

A multifactorial approach combining genetic and clinical risk factors may be useful in identifying children at high risk for adult IFG and type 2 diabetes.

Childhood Infections, Socioeconomic Status, and Adult Cardiometabolic Risk

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Socioeconomic disadvantage throughout the life course is associated with increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases, but traditional risk factors do not fully account for the social gradient. We investigated the interactions between low socioeconomic status (SES) and infection in childhood and adverse cardiometabolic parameters in adulthood.

METHODS

Participants from the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study, a cohort well phenotyped for childhood and adulthood cardiometabolic risk factors and socioeconomic parameters, were linked to lifetime hospitalization data from birth onward available from the Finnish National Hospital Registry. In those with complete data, we investigated relationships between infection-related hospitalization in childhood, SES, and childhood and adult cardiometabolic parameters.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 1015 participants (age range 3-18 years at baseline and 30-45 years at follow-up). In adults who were raised in below-median income families, childhood infection-related hospitalizations (at age 0-5 years) were significantly associated with higher adult BMI (β ± SE comparing those with 0 vs ≥1 hospitalizations 2.4 ± 0.8 kg/m(2), P = .008), waist circumference (7.4 ± 2.3 cm, P = .004), and reduced brachial flow-mediated dilatation (-2.7 ± 0.9%, P = .002). No equivalent associations were observed in participants from higher-SES families.

CONCLUSIONS

Infection was associated with worse cardiovascular risk factor profiles only in those from lower-SES families. Childhood infection may contribute to social gradients observed in adult cardiometabolic disease risk factors. These findings suggest reducing childhood infections, especially in socioeconomic disadvantaged children, may reduce the cardiometabolic disease burden in adults.