Time series analysis and mechanistic modelling of heterogeneity and sero-reversion in antibody responses to mild SARS‑CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 serology is used to identify prior infection at individual and at population level. Extended longitudinal studies with multi-timepoint sampling to evaluate dynamic changes in antibody levels are required to identify the time horizon in which these applications of serology are valid, and to explore the longevity of protective humoral immunity.

METHODS

Healthcare workers were recruited to a prospective cohort study from the first SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak in London, undergoing weekly symptom screen, viral PCR and blood sampling over 16-21 weeks. Serological analysis (n =12,990) was performed using semi-quantitative Euroimmun IgG to viral spike S1 domain and Roche total antibody to viral nucleocapsid protein (NP) assays. Comparisons were made to pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements.

FINDINGS

A total of 157/729 (21.5%) participants developed positive SARS-CoV-2 serology by one or other assay, of whom 31.0% were asymptomatic and there were no deaths. Peak Euroimmun anti-S1 and Roche anti-NP measurements correlated (r = 0.57, p<0.0001) but only anti-S1 measurements correlated with near-contemporary pseudovirus neutralising antibody titres (measured at 16-18 weeks, r = 0.57, p<0.0001). By 21 weeks' follow-up, 31/143 (21.7%) anti-S1 and 6/150 (4.0%) anti-NP measurements reverted to negative. Mathematical modelling revealed faster clearance of anti-S1 compared to anti-NP (median half-life of 2.5 weeks versus 4.0 weeks), earlier transition to lower levels of antibody production (median of 8 versus 13 weeks), and greater reductions in relative antibody production rate after the transition (median of 35% versus 50%).

INTERPRETATION

Mild SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with heterogeneous serological responses in Euroimmun anti-S1 and Roche anti-NP assays. Anti-S1 responses showed faster rates of clearance, more rapid transition from high to low level production rate and greater reduction in production rate after this transition. In mild infection, anti-S1 serology alone may underestimate incident infections. The mechanisms that underpin faster clearance and lower rates of sustained anti-S1 production may impact on the longevity of humoral immunity.

FUNDING

Charitable donations via Barts Charity, Wellcome Trust, NIHR.

Persistent T Cell Repertoire Perturbation and T Cell Activation in HIV After Long Term Treatment

Objective

In people living with HIV (PLHIV), we sought to test the hypothesis that long term anti-retroviral therapy restores the normal T cell repertoire, and investigate the functional relationship of residual repertoire abnormalities to persistent immune system dysregulation.

Methods

We conducted a case-control study in PLHIV and HIV-negative volunteers, of circulating T cell receptor repertoires and whole blood transcriptomes by RNA sequencing, complemented by metadata from routinely collected health care records.

Results

T cell receptor sequencing revealed persistent abnormalities in the clonal T cell repertoire of PLHIV, characterized by reduced repertoire diversity and oligoclonal T cell expansion correlated with elevated CD8 T cell counts. We found no evidence that these expansions were driven by cytomegalovirus or another common antigen. Increased frequency of long CDR3 sequences and reduced frequency of public sequences among the expanded clones implicated abnormal thymic selection as a contributing factor. These abnormalities in the repertoire correlated with systems level evidence of persistent T cell activation in genome-wide blood transcriptomes.

Conclusions

The diversity of T cell receptor repertoires in PLHIV on long term anti-retroviral therapy remains significantly depleted, and skewed by idiosyncratic clones, partly attributable to altered thymic output and associated with T cell mediated chronic immune activation. Further investigation of thymic function and the antigenic drivers of T cell clonal selection in PLHIV are critical to efforts to fully re-establish normal immune function.

Transcriptional response modules characterize IL-1β and IL-6 activity in COVID-19

Dysregulated IL-1β and IL-6 responses have been implicated in the pathogenesis of severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Innovative approaches for evaluating the biological activity of these cytokines in vivo are urgently needed to complement clinical trials of therapeutic targeting of IL-1β and IL-6 in COVID-19. We show that the expression of IL-1β or IL-6 inducible transcriptional signatures (modules) reflects the bioactivity of these cytokines in immunopathology modelled by juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and rheumatoid arthritis. In COVID-19, elevated expression of IL-1β and IL-6 response modules, but not the cytokine transcripts themselves, is a feature of infection in the nasopharynx and blood but is not associated with severity of COVID-19 disease, length of stay, or mortality. We propose that IL-1β and IL-6 transcriptional response modules provide a dynamic readout of functional cytokine activity in vivo, aiding quantification of the biological effects of immunomodulatory therapies in COVID-19.

Evaluation and improvement of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) for COVID-19: a multi-hospital study

BACKGROUND

The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification.

METHODS

Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models.

RESULTS

A baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites.

CONCLUSIONS

NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.

Discordant neutralizing antibody and T cell responses in asymptomatic and mild SARS-CoV-2 infection

Understanding the nature of immunity following mild/asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 is crucial to controlling the pandemic. We analyzed T cell and neutralizing antibody responses in 136 healthcare workers (HCW) 16-18 weeks after United Kingdom lockdown, 76 of whom had mild/asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection captured by serial sampling. Neutralizing antibodies (nAb) were present in 89% of previously infected HCW. T cell responses tended to be lower following asymptomatic infection than in those reporting case-definition symptoms of COVID-19, while nAb titers were maintained irrespective of symptoms. T cell and antibody responses were sometimes discordant. Eleven percent lacked nAb and had undetectable T cell responses to spike protein but had T cells reactive with other SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Our findings suggest that the majority of individuals with mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection carry nAb complemented by multispecific T cell responses at 16-18 weeks after mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Blood Transcriptomic Stratification of Short-term Risk in Contacts of Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

The highest risk of tuberculosis arises in the first few months after exposure. We reasoned that this risk reflects incipient disease among tuberculosis contacts. Blood transcriptional biomarkers of tuberculosis may predate clinical diagnosis, suggesting they offer improved sensitivity to detect subclinical incipient disease. Therefore, we sought to test the hypothesis that refined blood transcriptional biomarkers of active tuberculosis will improve stratification of short-term disease risk in tuberculosis contacts.

METHODS

We combined analysis of previously published blood transcriptomic data with new data from a prospective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative UK cohort of 333 tuberculosis contacts. We used stability selection as an alternative computational approach to identify an optimal signature for short-term risk of active tuberculosis and evaluated its predictive value in independent cohorts.

RESULTS

In a previously published HIV-negative South African case-control study of patients with asymptomatic Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, a novel 3-gene transcriptional signature comprising BATF2, GBP5, and SCARF1 achieved a positive predictive value (PPV) of 23% for progression to active tuberculosis within 90 days. In a new UK cohort of 333 HIV-negative tuberculosis contacts with a median follow-up of 346 days, this signature achieved a PPV of 50% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7-84.3) and negative predictive value of 99.3% (95% CI, 97.5-99.9). By comparison, peripheral blood interferon gamma release assays in the same cohort achieved a PPV of 5.6% (95% CI, 2.1-11.8).

CONCLUSIONS

This blood transcriptional signature provides unprecedented opportunities to target therapy among tuberculosis contacts with greatest risk of incident disease.

NIX-mediated mitophagy regulate metabolic reprogramming in phagocytic cells during mycobacterial infection

RNASeq analysis of PBMCs from treatment naïve TB patients and healthy controls revealed that M. tuberculosis (Mtb) infection dysregulates several metabolic pathways and upregulates BNIP3L/NIX receptor mediated mitophagy. Analysis of publicly available transcriptomic data from the NCBI-GEO database indicated that M. bovis (BCG) infection also induces similar rewiring of metabolic and mitophagy pathways. Mtb chronic infection and BCG in-vitro infection both downregulated oxidative phosphorylation and upregulated glycolysis and mitophagy; therefore, we used non-pathogenic mycobacterial species BCG as a model for Mtb infection to gain molecular insights and outcomes of this phenomenon. BCG infection in PBMCs and THP-1 macrophages induce mitophagy and glycolysis, leading to differentiation of naïve macrophage to M1 phenotype. Glucose consumption and lactate production were quantified by NMR, while the mitochondrial mass assessment was performed by mitotracker red uptake assay. Infected macrophages predominantly exhibit M1-phenotype, which is indicated by an increase in M1 specific cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-1β) and increased NOS2/ARG1, CD86/CD206 ratio. NIX knockdown abrogates this upregulation of glycolysis, mitophagy, and secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines in BCG infected cells, indicating that mycobacterial infection-induced immunometabolic changes are executed via NIX mediated mitophagy and are essential for macrophage differentiation and resolution of infection.

Transcriptional response modules characterise IL-1β and IL-6 activity in COVID-19

Dysregulated IL-1β and IL-6 responses have been implicated in the pathogenesis of severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Innovative approaches for evaluating the biological activity of these cytokines in vivo are urgently needed to complement clinical trials of therapeutic targeting of IL-1β and IL-6 in COVID-19. We show that the expression of IL-1β or IL-6 inducible transcriptional signatures (modules) reflects the bioactivity of these cytokines in immunopathology modelled by juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and rheumatoid arthritis. In COVID-19, elevated expression of IL-1β and IL-6 response modules, but not the cytokine transcripts themselves, is a feature of infection in the nasopharynx and blood, but is not associated with severity of COVID-19 disease, length of stay or mortality. We propose that IL-1β and IL-6 transcriptional response modules provide a dynamic readout of functional cytokine activity in vivo, aiding quantification of the biological effects of immunomodulatory therapies in COVID-19.

Systematic evaluation and external validation of 22 prognostic models among hospitalised adults with COVID-19: an observational cohort study

The number of proposed prognostic models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is growing rapidly, but it is unknown whether any are suitable for widespread clinical implementation.We independently externally validated the performance of candidate prognostic models, identified through a living systematic review, among consecutive adults admitted to hospital with a final diagnosis of COVID-19. We reconstructed candidate models as per original descriptions and evaluated performance for their original intended outcomes using predictors measured at the time of admission. We assessed discrimination, calibration and net benefit, compared to the default strategies of treating all and no patients, and against the most discriminating predictors in univariable analyses.We tested 22 candidate prognostic models among 411 participants with COVID-19, of whom 180 (43.8%) and 115 (28.0%) met the endpoints of clinical deterioration and mortality, respectively. Highest areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were achieved by the NEWS2 score for prediction of deterioration over 24 h (0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.83), and a novel model for prediction of deterioration <14 days from admission (0.78, 95% CI 0.74-0.82). The most discriminating univariable predictors were admission oxygen saturation on room air for in-hospital deterioration (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81), and age for in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81). No prognostic model demonstrated consistently higher net benefit than these univariable predictors, across a range of threshold probabilities.Admission oxygen saturation on room air and patient age are strong predictors of deterioration and mortality among hospitalised adults with COVID-19, respectively. None of the prognostic models evaluated here offered incremental value for patient stratification to these univariable predictors.

Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings

The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0-29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0-7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6-14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5-14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal-external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide.

Vitamin D3 replacement enhances antigen-specific immunity in older adults

Introduction

Ageing is associated with increased number of infections, decreased vaccine efficacy and increased systemic inflammation termed inflammageing. These changes are reflected by reduced recall responses to varicella zoster virus (VZV) challenge in the skin of older adults. Vitamin D deficiency is more common in the old and has been associated with frailty and increased inflammation. In addition, vitamin D increases immunoregulatory mechanisms and therefore has the potential to inhibit inflammageing.

Objectives

We investigated the use of vitamin D₃ replacement to enhance cutaneous antigen-specific immunity in older adults (≥65 years).

Methods

Vitamin D insufficient older adults (n = 18) were administered 6400IU of vitamin D₃/day orally for 14 weeks. Antigen-specific immunity to VZV was assessed by clinical score assessment of the injection site and transcriptional analysis of skin biopsies collected from challenged injection sites pre- and post-vitamin D₃ replacement.

Results

We showed that older adults had reduced VZV-specific cutaneous immune response and increased non-specific inflammation as compared to young. Increased non-specific inflammation observed in the skin of older adults negatively correlated with vitamin D sufficiency. We showed that vitamin D₃ supplementation significantly increased the response to cutaneous VZV antigen challenge in older adults. This enhancement was associated with a reduction in inflammatory monocyte infiltration with a concomitant enhancement of T cell recruitment to the site of antigen challenge in the skin.

Conclusion

Vitamin D₃ replacement can boost antigen-specific immunity in older adults with sub-optimal vitamin D status.

Estimated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer services and excess 1-year mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity: near real-time data on cancer care, cancer deaths and a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer.

METHODS

We employed near real-time weekly data on cancer care to determine the adverse effect of the pandemic on cancer services. We also used these data, together with national death registrations until June 2020 to model deaths, in excess of background (pre-COVID-19) mortality, in people with cancer. Background mortality risks for 24 cancers with and without COVID-19-relevant comorbidities were obtained from population-based primary care cohort (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) on 3 862 012 adults in England.

RESULTS

Declines in urgent referrals (median=-70.4%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-41.5%) to a nadir (lowest point) in the pandemic were observed. By 31 May, these declines have only partially recovered; urgent referrals (median=-44.5%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-31.2%). There were short-term excess death registrations for cancer (without COVID-19), with peak relative risk (RR) of 1.17 at week ending on 3 April. The peak RR for all-cause deaths was 2.1 from week ending on 17 April. Based on these findings and recent literature, we modelled 40% and 80% of cancer patients being affected by the pandemic in the long-term. At 40% affected, we estimated 1-year total (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer as between 7165 and 17 910, using RRs of 1.2 and 1.5, respectively, where 78% of excess deaths occured in patients with ≥1 comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Dramatic reductions were detected in the demand for, and supply of, cancer services which have not fully recovered with lockdown easing. These may contribute, over a 1-year time horizon, to substantial excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity. It is urgent to understand how the recovery of general practitioner, oncology and other hospital services might best mitigate these long-term excess mortality risks.

Healthcare Workers Bioresource: Study outline and baseline characteristics of a prospective healthcare worker cohort to study immune protection and pathogenesis in COVID-19

Background: Most biomedical research has focused on sampling COVID-19 patients presenting to hospital with advanced disease, with less focus on the asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic. We established a bioresource with serial sampling of health care workers (HCWs) designed to obtain samples before and during mainly mild disease, with follow-up sampling to evaluate the quality and duration of immune memory. Methods: We conducted a prospective study on HCWs from three hospital sites in London, initially at a single centre (recruited just prior to first peak community transmission in London), but then extended to multiple sites 3 weeks later (recruitment still ongoing, target n=1,000). Asymptomatic participants attending work complete a health questionnaire, and provide a nasal swab (for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR tests) and blood samples (mononuclear cells, serum, plasma, RNA and DNA are biobanked) at 16 weekly study visits, and at 6 and 12 months. Results: Preliminary baseline results for the first 731 HCWs (400 single-centre, 331 multicentre extension) are presented. Mean age was 38±11 years; 67% are female, 31% nurses, 20% doctors, and 19% work in intensive care units. COVID-19-associated risk factors were: 37% black, Asian or minority ethnicities; 18% smokers; 13% obesity; 11% asthma; 7% hypertension and 2% diabetes mellitus. At baseline, 41% reported symptoms in the preceding 2 weeks. Preliminary test results from the initial cohort (n=400) are available: PCR at baseline for SARS-CoV-2 was positive in 28 of 396 (7.1%, 95% CI 4.9-10.0%) and 15 of 385 (3.9%, 2.4-6.3%) had circulating IgG antibodies. Conclusions: This COVID-19 bioresource established just before the peak of infections in the UK will provide longitudinal assessments of incident infection and immune responses in HCWs through the natural time course of disease and convalescence. The samples and data from this bioresource are available to academic collaborators by application  https://covid-consortium.com/application-for-samples/.

Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study (performed by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium-ISARIC-4C) in 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited after model development between 21 May and 29 June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (age ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 at least four weeks before final data extraction.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

In-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

35 463 patients were included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 32.2%) and 22 361 in the validation dataset (mortality rate 30.1%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea level, and C reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C Score showed high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.79; validation cohort: 0.77, 0.76 to 0.77) with excellent calibration (validation: calibration-in-the-large=0, slope=1.0). Patients with a score of at least 15 (n=4158, 19%) had a 62% mortality (positive predictive value 62%) compared with 1% mortality for those with a score of 3 or less (n=1650, 7%; negative predictive value 99%). Discriminatory performance was higher than 15 pre-existing risk stratification scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range 0.61-0.76), with scores developed in other covid-19 cohorts often performing poorly (range 0.63-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

An easy-to-use risk stratification score has been developed and validated based on commonly available parameters at hospital presentation. The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups. The score should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ISRCTN66726260.

Clinical academic research in the time of Corona: A simulation study in England and a call for action

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to model the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the clinical academic response in England, and to provide recommendations for COVID-related research.

DESIGN

A stochastic model to determine clinical academic capacity in England, incorporating the following key factors which affect the ability to conduct research in the COVID-19 climate: (i) infection growth rate and population infection rate (from UK COVID-19 statistics and WHO); (ii) strain on the healthcare system (from published model); and (iii) availability of clinical academic staff with appropriate skillsets affected by frontline clinical activity and sickness (from UK statistics).

SETTING

Clinical academics in primary and secondary care in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Equivalent of 3200 full-time clinical academics in England.

INTERVENTIONS

Four policy approaches to COVID-19 with differing population infection rates: "Italy model" (6%), "mitigation" (10%), "relaxed mitigation" (40%) and "do-nothing" (80%) scenarios. Low and high strain on the health system (no clinical academics able to do research at 10% and 5% infection rate, respectively.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of full-time clinical academics available to conduct clinical research during the pandemic in England.

RESULTS

In the "Italy model", "mitigation", "relaxed mitigation" and "do-nothing" scenarios, from 5 March 2020 the duration (days) and peak infection rates (%) are 95(2.4%), 115(2.5%), 240(5.3%) and 240(16.7%) respectively. Near complete attrition of academia (87% reduction, <400 clinical academics) occurs 35 days after pandemic start for 11, 34, 62, 76 days respectively-with no clinical academics at all for 37 days in the "do-nothing" scenario. Restoration of normal academic workforce (80% of normal capacity) takes 11, 12, 30 and 26 weeks respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic COVID-19 crushes the science needed at system level. National policies mitigate, but the academic community needs to adapt. We highlight six key strategies: radical prioritisation (eg 3-4 research ideas per institution), deep resourcing, non-standard leadership (repurposing of key non-frontline teams), rationalisation (profoundly simple approaches), careful site selection (eg protected sites with large academic backup) and complete suspension of academic competition with collaborative approaches.

Healthcare Workers Bioresource: Study outline and baseline characteristics of a prospective healthcare worker cohort to study immune protection and pathogenesis in COVID-19

Background: Most biomedical research has focused on sampling COVID-19 patients presenting to hospital with advanced disease, with less focus on the asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic. We established a bioresource with serial sampling of health care workers (HCWs) designed to obtain samples before and during mainly mild disease, with follow-up sampling to evaluate the quality and duration of immune memory. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study on HCWs from three hospital sites in London, initially at a single centre (recruited just prior to first peak community transmission in London), but then extended to multiple sites 3 weeks later (recruitment still ongoing, target n=1,000). Asymptomatic participants attending work complete a health questionnaire, and provide a nasal swab (for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR tests) and blood samples (mononuclear cells, serum, plasma, RNA and DNA are biobanked) at 16 weekly study visits, and at 6 and 12 months. Results: Preliminary baseline results for the first 731 HCWs (400 single-centre, 331 multicentre extension) are presented. Mean age was 38±11 years; 67% are female, 31% nurses, 20% doctors, and 19% work in intensive care units. COVID-19-associated risk factors were: 37% black, Asian or minority ethnicities; 18% smokers; 13% obesity; 11% asthma; 7% hypertension and 2% diabetes mellitus. At baseline, 41% reported symptoms in the preceding 2 weeks. Preliminary test results from the initial cohort (n=400) are available: PCR at baseline for SARS-CoV-2 was positive in 28 of 396 (7.1%, 95% CI 4.9-10.0%) and 15 of 385 (3.9%, 2.4-6.3%) had circulating IgG antibodies. Conclusions: This COVID-19 bioresource established just before the peak of infections in the UK will provide longitudinal assessments of incident infection and immune responses in HCWs through the natural time course of disease and convalescence. The samples and data from this bioresource are available to academic collaborators by application  https://covid-consortium.com/application-for-samples/.

Blood transcriptomic discrimination of bacterial and viral infections in the emergency department: a multi-cohort observational validation study

BACKGROUND

There is an urgent need to develop biomarkers that stratify risk of bacterial infection in order to support antimicrobial stewardship in emergency hospital admissions.

METHODS

We used computational machine learning to derive a rule-out blood transcriptomic signature of bacterial infection (SeptiCyte™ TRIAGE) from eight published case-control studies. We then validated this signature by itself in independent case-control data from more than 1500 samples in total, and in combination with our previously published signature for viral infections (SeptiCyte™ VIRUS) using pooled data from a further 1088 samples. Finally, we tested the performance of these signatures in a prospective observational cohort of emergency department (ED) patients with fever, and we used the combined SeptiCyte™ signature in a mixture modelling approach to estimate the prevalence of bacterial and viral infections in febrile ED patients without microbiological diagnoses.

RESULTS

The combination of SeptiCyte™ TRIAGE with our published signature for viral infections (SeptiCyte™ VIRUS) discriminated bacterial and viral infections in febrile ED patients, with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.90-1), compared to 0.79 (0.68-0.91) for WCC and 0.73 (0.61-0.86) for CRP. At pre-test probabilities 0.35 and 0.72, the combined SeptiCyte™ score achieved a negative predictive value for bacterial infection of 0.97 (0.90-0.99) and 0.86 (0.64-0.96), compared to 0.90 (0.80-0.94) and 0.66 (0.48-0.79) for WCC and 0.88 (0.69-0.95) and 0.60 (0.31-0.72) for CRP. In a mixture modelling approach, the combined SeptiCyte™ score estimated that 24% of febrile ED cases receiving antibacterials without a microbiological diagnosis were due to viral infections. Our analysis also suggested that a proportion of patients with bacterial infection recovered without antibacterials.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood transcriptional biomarkers offer exciting opportunities to support precision antibacterial prescribing in ED and improve diagnostic classification of patients without microbiologically confirmed infections.

Publisher Correction: Spatial heterogeneity of the T cell receptor repertoire reflects the mutational landscape in lung cancer

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Quantitative IFN-γ Release Assay and Tuberculin Skin Test Results to Predict Incident Tuberculosis. A Prospective Cohort Study

Rationale: Development of diagnostic tools with improved predictive value for tuberculosis (TB) is a global research priority.Objectives: We evaluated whether implementing higher diagnostic thresholds than currently recommended for QuantiFERON Gold-in-Tube (QFT-GIT), T-SPOT.TB, and the tuberculin skin test (TST) might improve prediction of incident TB.Methods: Follow-up of a UK cohort of 9,610 adult TB contacts and recent migrants was extended by relinkage to national TB surveillance records (median follow-up 4.7 yr). Incidence rates and rate ratios, sensitivities, specificities, and predictive values for incident TB were calculated according to ordinal strata for quantitative results of QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB, and TST (with adjustment for prior bacillus Calmette-Guérin [BCG] vaccination).Measurements and Main Results: For all tests, incidence rates and rate ratios increased with the magnitude of the test result (P < 0.0001). Over 3 years' follow-up, there was a modest increase in positive predictive value with the higher thresholds (3.0% for QFT-GIT ≥0.35 IU/ml vs. 3.6% for ≥4.00 IU/ml; 3.4% for T-SPOT.TB ≥5 spots vs. 5.0% for ≥50 spots; and 3.1% for BCG-adjusted TST ≥5 mm vs. 4.3% for ≥15 mm). As thresholds increased, sensitivity to detect incident TB waned for all tests (61.0% for QFT-GIT ≥0.35 IU/ml vs. 23.2% for ≥4.00 IU/ml; 65.4% for T-SPOT.TB ≥5 spots vs. 27.2% for ≥50 spots; 69.7% for BCG-adjusted TST ≥5 mm vs. 28.1% for ≥15 mm).Conclusions: Implementation of higher thresholds for QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB, and TST modestly increases positive predictive value for incident TB, but markedly reduces sensitivity. Novel biomarkers or validated multivariable risk algorithms are required to improve prediction of incident TB.

Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The medical, societal, and economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom thus far have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high-risk conditions or their longer-term baseline (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on varying levels of transmission suppression and differing mortality impacts based on different relative risks for the disease.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records from England (Health Data Research UK-CALIBER). We report prevalence of underlying conditions defined by Public Health England guidelines (from March 16, 2020) in individuals aged 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017, using validated, openly available phenotypes for each condition. We estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models (and a tool for calculation) of excess COVID-19-related deaths, assuming relative impact (as relative risks [RRs]) of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared with background mortality) of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%). We also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation.

FINDINGS

We included 3 862 012 individuals (1 957 935 [50·7%] women and 1 904 077 [49·3%] men). We estimated that more than 20% of the study population are in the high-risk category, of whom 13·7% were older than 70 years and 6·3% were aged 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition. 1-year mortality in the high-risk population was estimated to be 4·46% (95% CI 4·41-4·51). Age and underlying conditions combined to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions. In a full suppression scenario in the UK population, we estimated that there would be two excess deaths (vs baseline deaths) with an RR of 1·5, four with an RR of 2·0, and seven with an RR of 3·0. In a mitigation scenario, we estimated 18 374 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 36 749 with an RR of 2·0, and 73 498 with an RR of 3·0. In a do nothing scenario, we estimated 146 996 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 293 991 with an RR of 2·0, and 587 982 with an RR of 3·0.

INTERPRETATION

We provide policy makers, researchers, and the public a simple model and an online tool for understanding excess mortality over 1 year from the COVID-19 pandemic, based on age, sex, and underlying condition-specific estimates. These results signal the need for sustained stringent suppression measures as well as sustained efforts to target those at highest risk because of underlying conditions with a range of preventive interventions. Countries should assess the overall (direct and indirect) effects of the pandemic on excess mortality.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Health Data Research UK.

Blood transcriptional biomarkers for active pulmonary tuberculosis in a high-burden setting: a prospective, observational, diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Blood transcriptional signatures are candidates for non-sputum triage or confirmatory tests of tuberculosis. Prospective head-to-head comparisons of their diagnostic accuracy in real-world settings are necessary to assess their clinical use. We aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of candidate transcriptional signatures identified by systematic review, in a setting with a high burden of tuberculosis and HIV.

METHODS

We did a prospective observational study nested within a diagnostic accuracy study of sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra) tests for pulmonary tuberculosis. We recruited consecutive symptomatic adults aged 18 years or older self-presenting to a tuberculosis clinic in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants provided blood for RNA sequencing, and sputum samples for liquid culture and molecular testing using Xpert and Ultra. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of candidate blood transcriptional signatures for active tuberculosis (including those intended to distinguish active tuberculosis from other diseases) identified by systematic review, compared with culture or Xpert MTB/RIF positivity as the standard reference. In our primary analysis, patients with tuberculosis were defined as those with either a positive liquid culture or Xpert result. Patients with missing blood RNA or sputum results were excluded. Our primary objective was to benchmark the diagnostic accuracy of candidate transcriptional signatures against the WHO target product profile (TPP) for a tuberculosis triage test.

FINDINGS

Between Feb 12, 2016, and July 18, 2017, we obtained paired sputum and RNA sequencing data from 181 participants, 54 (30%) of whom had confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. Of 27 eligible signatures identified by systematic review, four achieved the highest diagnostic accuracy with similar area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (Sweeney3: 90·6% [95% CI 85·6-95·6]; Kaforou25: 86·9% [80·9-92·9]; Roe3: 86·9% [80·3-93·5]; and BATF2: 86·8% [80·6-93·1]), independent of age, sex, HIV status, previous tuberculosis, or sputum smear result. At test thresholds that gave 70% specificity (the minimum WHO TPP specificity for a triage test), these four signatures achieved sensitivities between 83·3% (95% CI 71·3-91·0) and 90·7% (80·1-96·0). No signature met the optimum criteria, of 95% sensitivity and 80% specificity proposed by WHO for a triage test, or the minimum criteria (of 65% sensitivity and 98% specificity) for a confirmatory test, but all four correctly identified Ultra-positive, culture-negative patients.

INTERPRETATION

Selected blood transcriptional signatures met the minimum WHO benchmarks for a tuberculosis triage test but not for a confirmatory test. Further development of the signatures is warranted to investigate their possible effects on clinical and health economic outcomes as part of a triage strategy, or when used as add-on confirmatory test in conjunction with the highly sensitive Ultra test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA.

FUNDING

Royal Society Newton Advanced Fellowship, Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, and UK Medical Research Council.

Concise whole blood transcriptional signatures for incipient tuberculosis: a systematic review and patient-level pooled meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple blood transcriptional signatures have been proposed for identification of active and incipient tuberculosis. We aimed to compare the performance of systematically identified candidate signatures for incipient tuberculosis and to benchmark these against WHO targets.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis. We searched Medline and Embase for candidate whole blood mRNA signatures discovered with the primary objective of diagnosis of active or incipient tuberculosis, compared with controls who were healthy or had latent tuberculosis infection. We tested the performance of eligible signatures in whole blood transcriptomic datasets, in which sampling before tuberculosis diagnosis was done and time to disease was available. Culture-confirmed and clinically or radiologically diagnosed pulmonary or extrapulmonary tuberculosis cases were included. Non-progressor (individuals who remained tuberculosis-free during follow-up) samples with less than 6 months of follow-up from the date of sample collection were excluded, as were participants with prevalent tuberculosis and those who received preventive therapy. Scores were calculated for candidate signatures for each participant in the pooled dataset. Receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, and specificities were examined using prespecified intervals to tuberculosis (<3 months, <6 months, <1 year, and <2 years) from sample collection. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42019135618.

RESULTS

We tested 17 candidate mRNA signatures in a pooled dataset from four eligible studies comprising 1126 samples. This dataset included 183 samples from 127 incipient tuberculosis cases in South Africa, Ethiopia, The Gambia, and the UK. Eight signatures (comprising 1-25 transcripts) that predominantly reflect interferon and tumour necrosis factor-inducible gene expression, had equivalent diagnostic accuracy for incipient tuberculosis over a 2-year period with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0·70 (95% CI 0·64-0·76) to 0·77 (0·71-0·82). The sensitivity of all eight signatures declined with increasing disease-free time interval. Using a threshold derived from two SDs above the mean of uninfected controls to prioritise specificity and positive-predictive value, the eight signatures achieved sensitivities of 24·7-39·9% over 24 months and of 47·1-81·0% over 3 months, with corresponding specificities of more than 90%. Based on pre-test probability of 2%, the eight signatures achieved positive-predictive values ranging from 6·8-9·4% over 24 months and 11·2-14·4% over 3 months. When using biomarker thresholds maximising sensitivity and specificity with equal weighting to both, no signature met the minimum WHO target product profile parameters for incipient tuberculosis biomarkers over a 2-year period.

INTERPRETATION

Blood transcriptional biomarkers reflect short-term risk of tuberculosis and only exceed WHO benchmarks if applied to 3-6-month intervals. Serial testing among carefully selected target groups might be required for optimal implementation of these biomarkers.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust and National Institute for Health Research.