The Relationship Between Imaging and Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis and Survival

BACKGROUND

Controversy exists over whether there has been a true increase in the occurrence of thyroid cancer or overdiagnosis secondary to imaging practices. Because cancer overdiagnosis is associated with detection of indolent disease, overdiagnosis can be associated with perceived improvement in survival.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database was used to determine the relationship between type of imaging leading to thyroid cancer diagnosis and survival. Disease-specific and overall survival were evaluated in 11,945 patients aged ≥66 years with differentiated thyroid cancer diagnosed between January 1, 2001, and September 30, 2015, who prior to their cancer diagnosis initially underwent thyroid ultrasound versus other imaging capturing the neck. Analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model with propensity score.

RESULTS

Patients who underwent thyroid ultrasound as compared with other imaging had improved disease-specific and overall survival (p < .001, p < .001). However, those who underwent thyroid ultrasound were less likely to have comorbidities (p < .001) and more likely to be younger (p < .001), be female (p < .001), have localized cancer (p < .001), and have tumor size ≤1 cm (p < .001). After using propensity score analysis and adjusting for tumor characteristics, type of initial imaging still correlated with better overall survival but no longer correlated with better disease-specific survival.

CONCLUSION

There is improved disease-specific survival in patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer after thyroid ultrasound as compared with after other imaging. However, better disease-specific survival is related to these patients being younger and healthier and having lower-risk cancer, suggesting that thyroid ultrasound screening contributes to cancer overdiagnosis.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The findings from this study have implications for patients, physicians, and policy makers. Patients who have thyroid ultrasound as their initial imaging are fundamentally different from those who are diagnosed after other imaging. Because patients undergoing ultrasound are younger and healthier and are diagnosed with lower-risk thyroid cancer, they are less likely to die of their thyroid cancer. However, being diagnosed with thyroid cancer can lead to cancer-related worry and create risks for harm from treatments. Thus, efforts are needed to reduce inappropriate use of ultrasound, abide by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendations, and apply nodule risk stratification tools when appropriate.

Disparities in risk perception of thyroid cancer recurrence and death

BACKGROUND

To the authors' knowledge, studies regarding risk perception among survivors of thyroid cancer are scarce.

METHODS

The authors surveyed patients who were diagnosed with differentiated thyroid cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries of Georgia and Los Angeles County (2632 patients; 63% response rate). The analytic cohort was defined by a ≤5% risk of disease recurrence and mortality (1597 patients). Patients estimated their recurrence and mortality risks separately (increments of 10% and endpoints of ≤5% and ≥95%). Both outcomes were dichotomized between reasonably accurate estimates (risk perception of ≤5% or 10%) versus overestimation (risk perception of ≥20%). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with risk overestimation, and the relationships between overestimation and both worry and quality of life were evaluated.

RESULTS

In the current study sample, 24.7% of patients overestimated their recurrence risk and 12.5% overestimated their mortality risk. A lower educational level was associated with overestimating disease recurrence (≤high school diploma: odds ratio [OR], 1.64 [95% CI, 1.16-2.31]; and some college: OR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.02-1.81]) and mortality (≤high school diploma: OR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.18-2.93]) risk compared with those attaining at least a college degree. Hispanic ethnicity was found to be associated with overestimating recurrence risk (OR, 1.44, 95% CI 1.02-2.03) compared with their white counterparts. Worry about recurrence and death was found to be greater among patients who overestimated versus those who had a reasonably accurate estimate of their risk of disease recurrence and mortality, respectively (P < .001). Patients who overestimated mortality risk also reported a decreased physical quality of life (mean T score, 43.1; 95% CI, 41.6-44.7) compared with the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Less educated patients and Hispanic patients were more likely to report inaccurate risk perceptions, which were associated with worry and a decreased quality of life.

A Survey of American Thyroid Association Members Regarding the 2015 Adult Thyroid Nodule and Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Clinical Practice Guidelines

Background: The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) on management of thyroid nodules (TNs) and differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) in adults were developed to inform clinicians, patients, researchers, and health policy makers about the best available evidence, and its limitations, relating to management of these conditions. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional electronic survey of ATA members' perspectives of these CPGs, using a standardized survey (Clinician Guidelines Determinant Questionnaire) developed by the Guidelines International Network. A survey link was electronically mailed to members in February of 2019, with reminders sent to nonrespondents 2 and 5 weeks later. Data were descriptively summarized, after excluding missing responses. Results: The overall response rate was 19.8% (348/1761). The effective response rate was 20.2% (348/1720), after excluding a recently deceased member and individuals who had either invalid e-mail addresses or whose e-mails were returned. Of the respondents, 37.9% (132/348) were female, 60.4% (209/346) were endocrinologists, 27.5% (95/346) were surgeons, and 3.5% (12/346) were nuclear medicine specialists. The majority of respondents (71.9%; 250/348) were at a mid- or advanced-career level, and more than half were in academia (57.5%; 195/339). The majority (69.8%; 243/348) practiced in North America. The vast majority of respondents indicated that the CPGs explained the underlying evidence (92.3%; 298/323) and 92.9% (300/323) agreed or strongly agreed with the content. Most respondents stated that they regularly used the CPGs in their practice (83.0%; 268/323). Most respondents (83.0%; 268/323) also agreed or strongly agreed that the recommendations were easy to incorporate in their practice. The most popular CPG format was an electronic desktop file (78.8%; 252/320). Shorter more frequent CPGs were favored by 55.0% (176/320) of respondents, and longer traditional CPGs were favored by 39.7% (127/320). Conclusions: The clinical content and evidence explanations in the adult TN and DTC CPGs are widely accepted and applied among ATA survey respondents. Future ATA CPG updates need to be optimized to best meet users' preferences regarding format, frequency, and length.

Factors Associated With Diagnosis and Treatment of Thyroid Microcarcinomas

CONTEXT

Nearly one-third of all thyroid cancers are ≤1 cm.

OBJECTIVE

To determine diagnostic pathways for microcarcinomas vs larger cancers.

DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Patients from Georgia and Los Angeles Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries with differentiated thyroid cancer diagnosed in 2014 or 2015 were surveyed. Survey data were linked to SEER data on tumor and treatment characteristics. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Method of nodule discovery; reason for thyroid surgery.

RESULTS

Of patients who underwent surgery, 975 (38.2%) had cancers ≤1 cm, and 1588 cancers (61.8%) were >1 cm. The reported method of nodule discovery differed significantly between patients with cancers ≤1 cm and those with cancers >1 cm (P < 0.001). Cancer ≤1 cm was associated with nodule discovery on thyroid ultrasound (compared with other imaging, OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.21 to 2.10), older patient age (45 to 54 years vs ≤44, OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.82), and female sex (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.87). Hispanic ethnicity (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.89) and Asian race (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.92) were negative correlates. Cancers ≤1 cm were associated with lower likelihood of surgery for a nodule suspicious or consistent with cancer (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.57).

CONCLUSION

Thyroid microcarcinomas are more likely to be detected by ultrasound and less likely to be associated with surgery scheduled for known thyroid cancer. Understanding diagnostic pathways allows for targeted interventions to decrease overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

Role of Patient Maximizing-Minimizing Preferences in Thyroid Cancer Surveillance

PURPOSE

To understand the effect of patient preferences on thyroid cancer surveillance intensity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Eligible patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2015, from the Georgia and Los Angeles County SEER registries were surveyed between February 2017 and October 2018 (N = 2,632; response rate, 63%). Patient reports on health care utilization in the past year and responses to the validated Medical Maximizer-Minimizer Scale were linked to SEER data in the 2,183 disease-free patients. Ordered logistic regression was performed using a cumulative logit with nonproportional odds.

RESULTS

Of disease-free patients, 31.6% were classified as minimizers, 42.5% as moderate maximizers, and 25.9% as strong maximizers. In the past year, 25.2%, 27.3%, and 38.5% of minimizers, moderate maximizers, and strong maximizers, respectively, had ≥ 4 doctor visits, and 18.3%, 24.9%, and 29.5%, respectively, had ≥ 2 neck ultrasounds. When controlling for age, sex, race and ethnicity, comorbidity, stage, and SEER site, strong maximizers (compared with minimizers) were significantly more likely to report ≥ 4 doctor visits (odds ratio [OR], 1.45; 95% CI, 1.10-1.92), ≥ 2 neck ultrasounds (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.17-2.14), ≥ 1 radioactive iodine scan (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.19-2.50), and ≥ 1 additional imaging study (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.56-2.72).

CONCLUSION

Among patients with thyroid cancer who have been declared disease free, preference for a more maximal versus minimal approach to medical care is associated with increased number of physician visits and imaging tests. Because increased surveillance does not clearly correlate with improved outcomes, poses potential risks to patients, and contributes to increased healthcare costs, stronger consideration of the role of patient preferences is necessary when framing discussions on surveillance.

Patient Requests for Tests and Treatments Impact Physician Management of Hypothyroidism

Background: Levothyroxine is one of the most commonly prescribed medications in the United States. Although prior research focused on over- and undertreatment and patient dissatisfaction with thyroid hormone, little is known about physician-reported barriers to managing thyroid hormone therapy. In addition, the impact of patient requests for tests and treatments on hypothyroidism management remains unexplored. Methods: We randomly surveyed physician members of the Endocrine Society, American Academy of Family Practice and American Geriatrics Society. Respondents were asked to rate barriers to management of thyroid hormone therapy. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses to determine correlates with physician report of the most commonly reported barriers, including patient requests. Results: Response rate was 63% (359/566). Almost half of the physicians reported that patient requests for tests and treatments were somewhat to very likely to being a barrier to appropriate management of thyroid hormone therapy (46%). Endocrinologists (odds ratio [OR] = 2.29 [95% confidence interval, CI 1.03-5.23], compared with primary care physicians) and physicians with more than 25% of patients on thyroid hormone therapy per year (OR = 1.90 [CI 1.05-3.46], compared with those with <25% patients per year) were more likely to report patient requests as a barrier. Physicians with more years in practice were less likely to do so (11-20 years: OR = 0.44 [CI 0.21-0.89]; >20 years: OR = 0.24 [CI 0.12-0.46], compared with ≤10 years). Physician-reported patient requests included requests for preparations other than synthetic thyroxine (52%), adjusting thyroid hormone dose based on symptoms when biochemically euthyroid (52%), maintaining thyrotropin level below the reference range (32%), and adjusting dose according to serum T3 level (21%). Physicians who reported receiving patient requests for the former three unconventional practices were more likely to execute them (p < 0.001, p = 0.014, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Physicians reported patient requests for tests and treatments as a common barrier to appropriate thyroid hormone management. In some scenarios, physician adherence to patient requests may be a driver for inappropriate care and lead to harm. Understanding physician-reported barriers to thyroid hormone management and factors associated with physician perception that patient requests are a barrier is key to improving patient care.

Energy level and fatigue after surgery for thyroid cancer: A population-based study of patient-reported outcomes

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between treatment for differentiated thyroid cancer and patient-report of decreased energy and fatigue remains unclear.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with differentiated thyroid cancer from 2014 to 2015 included in the Georgia and Los Angeles, California cancer registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program were surveyed 2 to 4 years after diagnosis, and responses were linked to data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. Multivariable logistic regression analysis determined characteristics associated with the report of worse energy level at 2 to 4 years compared to before treatment and current fatigue severity using adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Of the 2,584 respondents, 988 (38.2%) reported much worse or somewhat worse energy and 1,310 (50.7%) reported moderate to very severe fatigue. The majority of patients were treated with total thyroidectomy with or without nodal dissection (total thyroidectomy with lymph node removal [49.3%] or total thyroidectomy [38.3%]). Only 12.3% had a thyroid lobectomy. Just over half were treated with radioactive iodine therapy (56.7%) and thyroid hormone suppression (50.2%) after the thyroidectomy. Younger age, history of depression, thyroid hormone suppression (odds ratio 1.48 [confidence interval 1.21-1.82]), and receipt of radioiodine (odds ratio 1.31 [confidence interval 1.10-1.56]) correlated with worse energy. Similarly, correlates of substantial fatigue included younger age, more comorbidities, history of depression, and thyroid hormone suppression (odds ratio 1.63 [confidence interval 1.34-1.99]). The presence of low serum calcium levels for >3 months after thyroidectomy was associated with worse energy (odds ratio 1.26 [confidence interval 1.02-1.54]) and substantial fatigue (odds ratio 1.49 [confidence interval 1.21-1.84]).

CONCLUSION

In addition to accepted risk factors such as depression and comorbidities, receiving radioactive iodine and reporting low calcium after thyroidectomy for differentiated thyroid cancer were associated with reports of worse energy compared to preoperative levels; thyroid hormone suppression was associated with reports of both worse energy and substantial post-treatment fatigue.

Assessment of Voice Outcomes Following Surgery for Thyroid Cancer

Importance

An increasing number of surgeries are being performed for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Long-term voice abnormalities are a known risk of thyroid surgery; however, few studies have used validated scales to quantify voice outcomes after surgery.

Objective

To identify the prevalence, severity, and factors associated with poor voice outcomes following surgery for DTC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A cross-sectional, population-based survey was distributed via a modified Dillman method to 4185 eligible patients and linked to Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data from SEER sites in Georgia and Los Angeles, California, from February 1, 2017, to October 31, 2018. Multivariable logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial analysis were performed to determine factors associated with abnormal voice. Participants included patients undergoing surgery for DTC between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2015, excluding those with voice abnormalities before surgery.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Abnormal Voice Handicap Index (VHI-10) score, defined as greater than 11. The VHI-10 is designed to quantify 10 psychosocial consequences of voice disorders on a Likert scale (0, never; to 4, always).

Results

A total of 2632 patients (63%) responded to the survey and 2325 met the inclusion criteria. With data reported as unweighted number and weighted percentage, 1792 were women (77.4%); weighted mean (SD) age was 49.4 (14.4) years. Of these, 599 patients (25.8%) reported voice changes lasting more than 3 months following surgery, 272 patients (12.7%) were identified as having an abnormal VHI-10 score, and 105 patients (4.7%) reported vocal fold motion impairment diagnosed by laryngoscopy. In multivariable analysis, factors associated with an abnormal VHI-10 score included age 45 to 54 years (reference, ≤44 years; odds ratio [OR], 1.49; 95% CI, 1.05-2.11), black race (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.14-2.62), Asian race (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.08-2.54), gastroesophageal reflux disease (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.15-2.43), and lateral neck dissection (OR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.11-3.56).

Conclusions and Relevance

A high prevalence of abnormal voice per validation with the VHI-10 emphasizes the need for heightened awareness of voice abnormalities following surgery and warrants consideration in the preoperative risk-benefit discussion, planned extent of surgery, and postoperative rehabilitation.

Patient-Perceived Lack of Choice in Receipt of Radioactive Iodine for Treatment of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

PURPOSE

For many patients with differentiated thyroid cancer, use of radioactive iodine (RAI) does not improve survival or reduce recurrence risk. Yet there is wide variation in RAI use, emphasizing the importance of understanding patient perspectives regarding RAI decision making.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All eligible patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 2014 to 2015 from the Georgia and Los Angeles SEER registries were surveyed (N = 2,632; response rate, 63%). Patients in whom selective RAI use is recommended were included in this analysis (n = 1,319). Patients were asked whether they felt like they had a choice to receive RAI (yes or no), how strongly their physician recommended RAI (5-point Likert-type scale), whether they received RAI (yes or no), and how satisfied they were with their RAI decision (more [score of 4 or greater] v less). Multivariable, weighted logistic regression with multiple imputation was used to assess the associations between patient characteristics and perception of no RAI choice and between perception of no RAI choice with receipt of RAI and decision satisfaction.

RESULTS

More than half of respondents (55.8%) perceived they did not have an RAI choice, and the majority of patients (75.9%) received RAI. The odds of perceiving no RAI choice was greater among those whose physician strongly recommended RAI (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.56; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.17). Patients who perceived they did not have an RAI choice were more likely to receive RAI (adjusted OR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.64 to 3.82) and report lower decision satisfaction (adjusted OR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.67 to 3.20).

CONCLUSION

Many patients did not feel they had a choice about whether to receive RAI. Patients who perceived they did not have a choice were more likely to receive RAI and report lower decision satisfaction, suggesting a need for more shared decision making to reduce overtreatment.

Worry in Thyroid Cancer Survivors with a Favorable Prognosis

Background: Little is known about cancer-related worry in thyroid cancer survivors with favorable prognosis. Methods: A diverse cohort of patients diagnosed with differentiated thyroid cancer in 2014-2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program registries of Georgia and Los Angeles County were surveyed two to four years after diagnosis. Main outcomes were any versus no worry about harms from treatments, quality of life, family at risk for thyroid cancer, recurrence, and death. After excluding patients with recurrent, persistent, and distant disease, multivariable logistic regression was used to identify correlates of worry in 2215 disease-free survivors. Results: Overall, 41.0% reported worry about death, 43.5% worry about harms from treatments, 54.7% worry about impaired quality of life, 58.0% worry about family at risk, and 63.2% worry about recurrence. After controlling for disease severity, in multivariable analyses with separate models for each outcome, there was more worry in patients with lower education (e.g., worry about recurrence, high school diploma and below: odds ratio [OR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI 1.36-2.33] compared with college degree and above). Older age and male sex were associated with less worry (e.g., worry about recurrence, age ≥65 years: OR 0.28 [CI 0.21-0.39] compared with age ≤44 years). Worry was associated with being Hispanic or Asian (e.g., worry about death, Hispanic: OR 1.41 [CI 1.09-1.83]; Asian: OR 1.57 [CI 1.13-2.17] compared with whites). Conclusions: Physicians should be aware that worry is a major issue for thyroid cancer survivors with favorable prognosis. Efforts should be undertaken to alleviate worry, especially among vulnerable groups, including female patients, younger patients, those with lower education, and racial/ethnic minorities.

Risk of Osteoporosis and Fractures in Patients with Thyroid Cancer: A Case-Control Study in U.S. Veterans

BACKGROUND

Data on osteoporosis and fractures in patients with thyroid cancer, especially men, are conflicting. Our objective was to determine osteoporosis and fracture risk in U.S. veterans with thyroid cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a case-control study using the Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse (2004-2013). Patients with thyroid cancer (n = 10,370) and controls (n = 10,370) were matched by age, sex, weight, and steroid use. Generalized linear mixed-effects regression model was used to compare the two groups in terms of osteoporosis and fracture risk. Next, subgroup analysis of the patients with thyroid cancer using longitudinal thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) was performed to determine its effect on risk of osteoporosis and fractures. Other covariates included patient age, sex, median household income, comorbidities, and steroid and androgen use.

RESULTS

Compared with controls, osteoporosis, but not fractures, was more frequent in patients with thyroid cancer (7.3% vs. 5.3%; odds ratio [OR], 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.49) when controlling for median household income, Charlson/Deyo comorbidity score, and androgen use. Subgroup analysis of patients with thyroid cancer demonstrated that lower TSH (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97), female sex (OR, 4.24; 95% CI, 3.53-5.10), older age (e.g., ≥85 years: OR, 17.18; 95% CI, 11.12-26.54 compared with <50 years), and androgen use (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.18-2.23) were associated with osteoporosis. Serum TSH was not associated with fractures (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.96-1.07).

CONCLUSION

Osteoporosis, but not fractures, was more common in U.S. veterans with thyroid cancer than controls. Multiple factors may be contributory, with low TSH playing a small role.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Data on osteoporosis and fragility fractures in patients with thyroid cancer, especially in men, are limited and conflicting. Because of excellent survival rates, the number of thyroid cancer survivors is growing and more individuals may experience long-term effects from the cancer itself and its treatments, such as osteoporosis and fractures. The present study offers unique insight on the risk for osteoporosis and fractures in a largely male thyroid cancer cohort. Physicians who participate in the long-term care of patients with thyroid cancer should take into consideration a variety of factors in addition to TSH level when considering risk for osteoporosis.

Thyroid Ultrasound and the Increase in Diagnosis of Low-Risk Thyroid Cancer

CONTEXT

Thyroid cancer incidence increased with the greatest change in adults aged ≥65 years.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relationship between area-level use of imaging and thyroid cancer incidence over time.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Longitudinal imaging patterns in Medicare patients aged ≥65 years residing in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) regions were assessed in relationship to differentiated thyroid cancer diagnosis in patients aged ≥65 years included in SEER-Medicare. Linear mixed-effects modeling was used to determine factors associated with thyroid cancer incidence over time. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine patient characteristics associated with receipt of thyroid ultrasound as initial imaging.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Thyroid cancer incidence.

RESULTS

Between 2002 and 2013, thyroid ultrasound use as initial imaging increased (P < 0.001). Controlling for time and demographics, use of thyroid ultrasound was associated with thyroid cancer incidence (P < 0.001). Findings persisted when cohort was restricted to papillary thyroid cancer (P < 0.001), localized papillary thyroid cancer (P = 0.004), and localized papillary thyroid cancer with tumor size ≤1 cm (P = 0.01). Based on our model, from 2003 to 2013, at least 6594 patients aged ≥65 years were diagnosed with thyroid cancer in the United States due to increased use of thyroid ultrasound. Thyroid ultrasound as initial imaging was associated with female sex and comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

Greater thyroid ultrasound use led to increased diagnosis of low-risk thyroid cancer, emphasizing the need to reduce harms through reduction in inappropriate ultrasound use and adoption of nodule risk stratification tools.

American Head and Neck Society Endocrine Section clinical consensus statement: North American quality statements and evidence-based multidisciplinary workflow algorithms for the evaluation and management of thyroid nodules

BACKGROUND

Care for patients with thyroid nodules is complex and multidisciplinary, and research demonstrates variation in care. The objective was to develop clinical guidelines and quality metrics to reduce unwarranted variation and improve quality.

METHODS

Multidisciplinary expert consensus and modified Delphi approach. Source documents were workflow algorithms from Kaiser Permanente Northern California and Cancer Care of Ontario based on the 2015 American Thyroid Association management guidelines for adult patients with thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer.

RESULTS

A consensus-based, unified preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative workflow was developed for North American use. Twenty-one panelists achieved consensus on 16 statements about workflow-embedded process and outcomes metrics addressing safety, access, appropriateness, efficiency, effectiveness, and patient centeredness of care.

CONCLUSION

A panel of Canadian and United States experts achieved consensus on workflows and quality metric statements to help reduce unwarranted variation in care, improving overall quality of care for patients diagnosed with thyroid nodules.

Limitations of the 2015 ATA Guidelines for Prediction of Thyroid Cancer: A Review of 1947 Consecutive Aspirations

BACKGROUND

The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines have been proposed to aid in the management of thyroid nodules by determining whether fine needle aspiration is indicated.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the ATA guidelines contribute to the overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of ultrasound-imaged thyroid nodules (n = 1947) consecutively aspirated at a tertiary care center from 1 October 2009 to 22 February 2016. Nodules were retrospectively reviewed, assigned a 2015 ATA morphology, and placed into one of five 2015 ATA categories of risk (ATA-1, <1% risk of malignancy; ATA-2, <3% risk; ATA-3, 5% to 10% risk, ATA-4: 10% to 20% risk; ATA-5, >70% to 90% risk) by a reader who was blinded to cytology. ATA category was compared with cytopathology. The positive predictive value (PPV) of each ATA category was calculated with respect to cancer. Numbers needed to aspirate and Pearson correlations were calculated. Interrater agreement for ATA category across five readers was assessed.

RESULTS

The PPV for cancer increased by ATA category [category 1 to 5, respectively: 0% (0/14), 2% (4/249), 5% (36/733), 12% (104/850), 28% (28/101)]. The number needed to sample to detect one papillary cancer was 125 (ATA-2), 49 (ATA-3), 13 (ATA-4), and 5 (ATA-5). The overall interrater agreement for ATA score across all five readers was fair (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.460).

CONCLUSIONS

The 2015 ATA guidelines stratify risk for thyroid cancer; however, the stratification system is overly optimistic regarding cancer detection rates for the higher-risk nodules, and there is only fair interrater agreement.

Treatment-Free Survival in Patients With Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

OBJECTIVE

Cancer recurrence is a primary concern for patients with differentiated thyroid cancer; however, population-level data on recurrent or persistent disease do not currently exist. The objective of this study was to determine treated recurrent or persistent thyroid cancer by using a population-based registry, identify correlates of poor treatment-free survival, and define prognostic groups for treatment-free survival.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we evaluated treatment-free survival in 9273 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare with a diagnosis of differentiated thyroid cancer between 1998 and 2012. Treated recurrence was defined by treatment of recurrent or persistent differentiated thyroid cancer with surgery, radioactive iodine, or radiation therapy at ≥1 year after diagnosis. Multivariable analysis was performed with Cox proportional hazards regression, survival trees, and random survival forests.

RESULTS

In this cohort the median patient age at time of diagnosis was 69 years, and 75% of the patients were female. Using survival tree analyses, we identified five distinct prognostic groups (P < 0.001), with a prediction accuracy of 88.7%. The 5-year treatment-free survival rates of these prognostic groups were 96%, 91%, 85%, 72%, and 52%, respectively, and the 10-year treatment-free survival rates were 94%, 87%, 80%, 64%, and 39%. Based on survival forest analysis, the most important factors for predicting treatment-free survival were stage, tumor size, and receipt of radioactive iodine.

CONCLUSION

In this population-based cohort, five prognostic groups for treatment-free survival were identified. Understanding treatment-free survival has implications for the care and long-term surveillance of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer.

Controversies in the Management of Low-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Controversy exists over optimal management of low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer. This controversy occurs in all aspects of management, including surgery, use of radioactive iodine for remnant ablation, thyroid hormone supplementation, and long-term surveillance. Limited and conflicting data, treatment paradigm shifts, and differences in physician perceptions contribute to the controversy. This lack of physician consensus results in wide variation in patient care, with some patients at risk for over- or undertreatment. To reduce patient harm and unnecessary worry, there is a need to design and implement studies to address current knowledge gaps.

Population-Based Assessment of Complications Following Surgery for Thyroid Cancer

CONTEXT

As thyroid cancer incidence rises, more patients undergo thyroid surgery. Although postoperative complication rates have been reported in single institution studies, population-based data are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To determine thyroid cancer surgery complication rates and identify at-risk populations.

DESIGN/SETTING/PATIENTS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database, we evaluated general complications within 30 days and thyroid surgery-specific complications within 1 year in 27,912 patients who underwent surgery for differentiated or medullary thyroid cancer between 1998 and 2011. Multivariable analyses of patient characteristics associated with postoperative complications were performed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

General and thyroid surgery-specific complications.

RESULTS

Overall, 1820 (6.5%) patients developed general postoperative complications and 3427 (12.3%) developed thyroid surgery-specific complications. In multivariable analyses, general and thyroid surgery-specific complications were significantly higher in patients >65 years [odds ratio (OR), 2.61; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.31 to 2.95; OR, 3.12; 95% CI, 2.85 to 3.42], those with a Charlson/Deyo comorbidity score of 1 (OR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.66 to 3.49; OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.53 to 2.31) and ≥2 (OR, 7.05; 95% CI, 5.33 to 9.56; OR, 3.62; 95% CI, 3.11 to 4.25), and those with regional (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.35; OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.45) or distant disease (OR, 2.83; 95% CI, 2.30 to 3.47; OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.54 to 2.21), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The rates of thyroid cancer surgery complications are higher than predicted, and patients with older age, more comorbidities, and advanced disease are at greatest risk. Efforts to reduce complications are needed.