Ursodeoxycholic Acid Response Is Associated With Reduced Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis With Compensated Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Patients with cirrhosis and men have been under-represented in most studies examining the clinical benefit of response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of this study was to study the association of UDCA response and liver-related death or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with PBC cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of veterans, predominantly men, with PBC and compensated cirrhosis to assess the association of UDCA response with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and HCC using competing risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

We identified 501 subjects with PBC and compensated cirrhosis, including 287 UDCA responders (1,692.8 patient-years [PY] of follow-up) and 214 partial responders (838.9 PY of follow-up). The unadjusted rates of hepatic decompensation (3.8 vs 7.9 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) and liver-related death or transplantation (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) were lower in UDCA responders compared with partial responders. UDCA response was associated with a lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subhazard ratio [sHR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.95, P = 0.03), death from any cause or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.72, P = 0.0002), and liver-related death or transplantation (sHR 0.40, 95% CI 0.24-0.67, P = 0.0004), but not HCC (sHR 0.39, 95% CI 0.60-2.55, P = 0.32). In a sensitivity analysis, the presence of portal hypertension was associated with the highest UDCA-associated effect.

DISCUSSION

UDCA response is associated with a reduction in decompensation, all-cause, and liver-related death or transplantation in a cohort of predominantly male patients with cirrhosis, with the highest benefit in patients with portal hypertension.

Male Sex Is Associated With Higher Rates of Liver-Related Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The impact of sex on the postcirrhosis progression of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has not been well defined. Prior studies have suggested that men have worse outcomes but present at more advanced stages of fibrosis than women. This observation, however, has been limited by small numbers of men and even fewer patients with cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We investigated the association of sex with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), using competing-risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models in a large cohort of predominantly male patients with PBC cirrhosis assembled from the Veterans Health Administration. In a cohort of 532 participants (418 male) with PBC-related cirrhosis with a total follow-up of 3,231.6 person-years (PY) from diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis, male participants had a higher unadjusted rates of death or transplantation (8.5 vs. 3.8 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), liver-related death or transplantation (5.5 vs. 2.7 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), decompensation (5.5 vs. 4.0 per 100 PY; P = 0.002), and HCC (0.9 vs. 0.3 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for confounders, male sex was associated with a higher risk of death or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.01-3.19; P = 0.046), and liver-related death or transplantation (subhazard ratio, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.15-4.08; P = 0.02). A sensitivity analysis that defined ursodeoxycholic acid response as normalization of alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin revealed similar findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with PBC and well-compensated cirrhosis, male sex is associated with a higher risk of both death and liver-related death or transplantation.

The effect of chronic viral hepatitis on prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Inflammation and the immune system significantly impact the development, progression, and treatment response of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This retrospective study investigated the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a prognostic biomarker in Western patients with HCC in the setting of chronic viral hepatitis.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with HCC from 2005 to 2016 were selected from a tertiary care institution. NLR was calculated within 30 days prior to treatment and dichotomized at the median. Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS) curves and Cox hazard proportional models were utilized. Tumor and liver reserve parameters were included in multivariable analyses (MVA).

RESULTS

A total of 581 patients met inclusion criteria (median age 61.0 yr; 78.3% male; 66.3% Caucasian) with median OS = 34.9 mo. 371 patients (63.9%) had viral hepatitis, of which 350 had hepatitis C (94.3%). The low-NLR group (

CONCLUSIONS

Lower baseline NLR was associated with increased overall survival in HCC. Viral hepatitis serves as an effect modifier of NLR, attenuating its prognostic relevance in this hepatitis C-predominant population.

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Key Words

• carcinoma
• hepatitis C
• hepatocellular
• inflammation
• lymphocytes
• neutrophils

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MESH Headings

• Aged
• Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/blood
• Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/immunology
• Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/mortality
• Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/virology
• Female
• Hepatitis C, Chronic/blood
• Hepatitis C, Chronic/epidemiology
• Hepatitis C, Chronic/immunology
• Hepatitis C, Chronic/virology
• Humans
• Inflammation/blood
• Inflammation/diagnosis
• Inflammation/immunology
• Inflammation/virology
• Kaplan-Meier Estimate
• Liver Neoplasms/blood
• Liver Neoplasms/immunology
• Liver Neoplasms/mortality
• Liver Neoplasms/virology
• Lymphocyte Count
• Lymphocytes/immunology
• Male
• Middle Aged
• Neutrophils/immunology
• Prognosis
• Retrospective Studies
• Risk Factors

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Grants

• UL1 TR001863 NCATS NIH HHS
• CA160741 U.S. Department of Defense
• U.S. Department of Defense

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Impact of Obeticholic acid Exposure on Decompensation and Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Cirrhosis

Obeticholic acid (OCA) is approved for the treatment of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) who are partial responders or intolerant to ursodeoxycholic acid. Reports of serious liver injury have raised concerns about its safety in cirrhosis. We investigated the effects of treatment with OCA on hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality or transplantation in a cohort with compensated PBC cirrhosis. This was a retrospective cohort study using national data of US veterans with PBC and cirrhosis. We performed a propensity score model using variables associated with OCA prescription to control for baseline risk of decompensation. New OCA users were matched to nonusers. We identified 509 subjects with compensated PBC cirrhosis. We developed a propensity score model using variables associated with OCA prescription; 21 OCA users were matched with 84 nonusers. Over 569 and 3,847 person-months, respectively, of follow-up, 5 (23.8%) OCA users and 22 (26.2%) OCA nonusers decompensated. The C-statistic of the propensity score model was 0.87. On multivariable analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders, OCA use was associated with an increased risk of hepatic decompensation (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-11.57; P = 0.01). There was no association between OCA use and liver-related mortality or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-5.21; P = 0.66). Conclusion: OCA use was associated with an increase in hepatic decompensation but not liver-related mortality or transplantation in patients with compensated PBC cirrhosis. Additional studies are recommended to prospectively investigate these findings.

Frailty Is a Risk Factor for Postoperative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis Undergoing Diverse Major Surgeries

With a rising burden of cirrhosis surgeries, understanding risk factors for postoperative mortality is more salient than ever. The role of baseline frailty has not been assessed in this context. We evaluated the association between patient frailty and postoperative risk among diverse patients with cirrhosis and determined if frailty improves prognostication of cirrhosis surgical risk scores. This was a retrospective cohort study of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016 who underwent nontransplant major surgery. Frailty was ascertained using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the impact of patient frailty on postoperative mortality. Logistic regression was used to identify incremental changes in discrimination for postoperative mortality when frailty was added to the risk prediction models, including the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Mayo Risk Score (MRS), and Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated With Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn. A total of 804 cirrhosis surgeries were identified. The majority of patients (48.5%) had high-risk frailty at baseline (HFRS >15). In adjusted Cox regression models, categories of increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer postoperative survival. For example, intermediate-risk frailty (HFRS 5-15) conferred a 1.77-fold increased hazard relative to low-risk frailty (HFRS, <5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.95; P = 0.03). High-risk frailty demonstrated a similarly increased hazard (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.05-2.88; P = 0.03), suggesting a threshold effect of frailty on postoperative mortality. The incorporation of frailty improved discrimination of MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP for postoperative mortality, but did not do so for the MRS or VOCAL-Penn score. Patient frailty was an additional important predictor of cirrhosis surgical risk. The incorporation of preoperative frailty assessments may help to risk stratify patients, especially in settings where the MELD-Na and CTP are commonly applied.

HIV RNA, CD4+ Percentage, and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma by Cirrhosis Status

BACKGROUND

Despite increasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among HIV-infected patients, it remains unclear if HIV-related factors contribute to development of HCC. We examined if higher or prolonged HIV viremia and lower CD4+ cell percentage were associated with HCC.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study of HIV-infected individuals who had HIV RNA, CD4+, and CD8+ cell counts and percentages assessed in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (1999-2015). HCC was ascertained using Veterans Health Administration cancer registries and electronic records. Cox regression was used to determine hazard ratios (HR, 95% confidence interval [CI]) of HCC associated with higher current HIV RNA, longer duration of detectable HIV viremia (≥500 copies/mL), and current CD4+ cell percentage less than 14%, adjusting for traditional HCC risk factors. Analyses were stratified by previously validated diagnoses of cirrhosis prior to start of follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 35 659 HIV-infected patients, 302 (0.8%) developed HCC over 281 441 person-years (incidence rate = 107.3 per 100 000 person-years). Among patients without baseline cirrhosis, higher HIV RNA (HR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.12 to 1.40, per 1.0 log10 copies/mL) and 12 or more months of detectable HIV (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.02 to 2.11) were independently associated with higher risk of HCC. CD4+ percentage less than 14% was not associated with HCC in any model. Hepatitis C coinfection was a statistically significant predictor of HCC regardless of baseline cirrhosis status.

CONCLUSION

Among HIV-infected patients without baseline cirrhosis, higher HIV RNA and longer duration of HIV viremia increased risk of HCC, independent of traditional HCC risk factors. This is the strongest evidence to date that HIV viremia contributes to risk of HCC in this group.

The Predictive Role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate and Lactate Clearance for In-Hospital Mortality Among a National Cirrhosis Cohort

The burden of cirrhosis hospitalizations is increasing. The admission Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-lactate (MELD-lactate) was recently demonstrated to be a superior predictor of in-hospital mortality compared with MELD in limited cohorts. We identified specific classes of hospitalizations where MELD-lactate may be especially useful and evaluated the predictive role of lactate clearance. This was a retrospective cohort study of 1036 cirrhosis hospitalizations for gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, or other portal hypertension-related indications in the Veterans Health Administration where MELD-lactate was measured on admission. Performance characteristics for in-hospital mortality were compared between MELD-lactate and MELD/MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), with stratified analyses of MELD categories (≤15, >15 to <25, ≥25) and reason for admission. We also incorporated day 3 lactate levels into modeling and tested for an interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance. MELD-lactate had superior discrimination for in-hospital mortality compared with MELD or MELD-Na (area under the curve [AUC] 0.789 versus 0.776 versus 0.760, respectively; P < 0.001) and superior calibration. MELD-lactate had higher discrimination among hospitalizations with MELD ≤15 (AUC 0.763 versus 0.608 for MELD, global P = 0.01) and hospitalizations for infection (AUC 0.791 versus 0.674 for MELD, global P < 0.001). We found a significant interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance; heat maps were created as clinical tools to risk-stratify patients based on these clinical data. MELD-lactate had significantly superior performance in predicting in-hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for infection and/or with MELD ≤15 when compared with MELD or MELD-Na. Incorporating day 3 lactate clearance may further improve prognostication.

Mortality and Hepatic Decompensation in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Anticoagulation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Outcomes with anticoagulation (AC) are understudied in advanced liver disease. We investigated effects of AC with warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) on all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation as well as ischemic stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, splanchnic vein thrombosis, and bleeding in a cohort with cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation (AF).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This was a retrospective, longitudinal study using national data of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis at 128 medical centers, including patients with cirrhosis with incident AF, from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2017 followed through December 31, 2018. To assess the effects of AC on outcomes, we applied propensity score (PS) matching and marginal structural models (MSMs) to account for confounding by indication and time-dependent confounding. The final cohort included 2,694 veterans with cirrhosis with AF (n = 1,694 and n = 704 in the warfarin and DOAC cohorts after PS matching, respectively) with a median of 4.6 years of follow-up. All-cause mortality was lower with warfarin versus no AC (PS matched: hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.76; MSM models: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73) and DOACs versus no AC (PS matched: HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.93; MSM models: HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.81). In MSM models, warfarin (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.09-0.90) and DOACs (HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.79) were associated with reduced ischemic stroke. In secondary analyses, bleeding was lower with DOACs compared to warfarin (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Warfarin and DOACs were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Warfarin was associated with more bleeding compared to no AC. DOACs had a lower incidence of bleeding compared to warfarin in exploratory analyses. Future studies should prospectively investigate these observed associations.

Patient Frailty Is Independently Associated With the Risk of Hospitalization for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

There is significant interest in identifying risk factors associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). In transplant candidates, frailty predicts wait-list mortality and posttransplant outcomes. However, the impact of frailty on ACLF development and mortality is unknown. This was a retrospective study of US veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016. First hospitalizations were characterized as ACLF or non-ACLF admissions. Prehospitalization patient frailty was ascertained using a validated score based on administrative coding data. We used logistic regression to investigate the impact of an increasing frailty score on the odds of ACLF hospitalization and short-term ACLF mortality. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between frailty and longterm survival from hospitalization. We identified 16,561 cirrhosis hospitalizations over a median follow-up of 4.19 years (interquartile range, 2.47-6.34 years). In adjusted models, increasing frailty score was associated with significantly increased odds of ACLF hospitalization versus non-ACLF hospitalization (odds ratio, 1.03 per point; 95% CI 1.02-1.03; P < 0.001). By contrast, frailty score was not associated with ACLF 28- or 90-day mortality (P = 0.13 and P = 0.33, respectively). In an adjusted Cox analysis of all hospitalizations, increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer longterm survival from the time of hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.02 per 5 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.03; P = 0.004). Frailty increases the likelihood of ACLF hospitalization among patients with cirrhosis, but it does not impact short-term ACLF mortality. These findings have implications for clinicians caring for frail outpatients with cirrhosis, including tailored follow-up, risk mitigation strategies, and possible expedited transplant evaluation.

Impact of age on sorafenib outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is no consensus on the effect of sorafenib dosing on efficacy and toxicity in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Older patients are often empirically started on low-dose therapy with the aim to avoid toxicities while maximising clinical efficacy. We aimed to verify whether age impacts on overall survival (OS) and whether a reduced starting dose impacts on OS or toxicity experienced by the elderly.

METHODS

In an international, multicentre cohort study, outcomes for those aged <75 or ≥75 years were determined while accounting for common prognostic factors and demographic characteristics in univariable and multivariable models.

RESULTS

Five thousand five hundred and ninety-eight patients were recruited; 792 (14.1%) were aged ≥75 years. The elderly were more likely to have larger tumours (>7 cm) (39 vs 33%, p < 0.01) with preserved liver function (67 vs 57.7%) (p < 0.01). No difference in the median OS of those aged ≥75 years and <75 was noted (7.3 months vs 7.2 months; HR 1.00 (95% CI 0.93-1.08), p = 0.97). There was no relationship between starting dose of sorafenib 800 mg vs 400 mg/200 mg and OS between those <75 and ≥75 years. The elderly experienced a similar overall incidence of grade 2-4 sorafenib-related toxicity compared to <75 years (63.5 vs 56.7%, p = 0.11). However, the elderly were more likely to discontinue sorafenib due to toxicity (27.0 vs 21.6%, p < 0.01). This did not vary between different starting doses of sorafenib.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical outcomes in the elderly is equivalent to patients aged <75 years, independent of dose of sorafenib prescribed.

Risk Prediction Models for Post-Operative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of postoperative mortality. Currently available tools to predict postoperative risk are suboptimally calibrated and do not account for surgery type. Our objective was to use population-level data to derive and internally validate cirrhosis surgical risk models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) cohort, which contains granular data on patients with cirrhosis from 128 U.S. medical centers, merged with the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) to identify surgical procedures. We categorized surgeries as abdominal wall, vascular, abdominal, cardiac, chest, or orthopedic and used multivariable logistic regression to model 30-, 90-, and 180-day postoperative mortality (VOCAL-Penn models). We compared model discrimination and calibration of VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo Risk Score (MRS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium MELD-Na, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. We identified 4,712 surgical procedures in 3,785 patients with cirrhosis. The VOCAL-Penn models were derived and internally validated with excellent discrimination (30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic = 0.859; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.809-0.909). Predictors included age, preoperative albumin, platelet count, bilirubin, surgery category, emergency indication, fatty liver disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and obesity. Model performance was superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CTP, and MRS at all time points (e.g., 30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic for MRS = 0.766; 95% CI, 0.676-0.855) in terms of discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The VOCAL-Penn models substantially improve postoperative mortality predictions in patients with cirrhosis. These models may be applied in practice to improve preoperative risk stratification and optimize patient selection for surgical procedures (www.vocalpennscore.com).

Systemic Therapy for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: ASCO Guideline

PURPOSE

To develop an evidence-based clinical practice guideline to assist in clinical decision making for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

ASCO convened an Expert Panel to conduct a systematic review of published phase III randomized controlled trials (2007-2020) on systemic therapy for advanced HCC and provide recommended care options for this patient population.

RESULTS

Nine phase III randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Atezolizumab + bevacizumab (atezo + bev) may be offered as first-line treatment of most patients with advanced HCC, Child-Pugh class A liver disease, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS) 0-1, and following management of esophageal varices, when present, according to institutional guidelines. Where there are contraindications to atezolizumab and/or bevacizumab, tyrosine kinase inhibitors sorafenib or lenvatinib may be offered as first-line treatment of patients with advanced HCC, Child-Pugh class A liver disease, and ECOG PS 0-1. Following first-line treatment with atezo + bev, and until better data are available, second-line therapy with a tyrosine kinase inhibitor may be recommended for appropriate candidates. Following first-line therapy with sorafenib or lenvatinib, second-line therapy options for appropriate candidates include cabozantinib, regorafenib for patients who previously tolerated sorafenib, or ramucirumab (for patients with α-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/mL), or atezo + bev where patients did not have access to this option as first-line therapy. Pembrolizumab or nivolumab are also reasonable options for appropriate patients following sorafenib or lenvatinib. Consideration of nivolumab + ipilimumab as an option for second-line therapy and third-line therapy is discussed. Further guidance on choosing between therapy options is included within the guideline. Additional information is available at www.asco.org/gastrointestinal-cancer-guidelines.

Patterns of COVID-19 testing and mortality by race and ethnicity among United States veterans: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is growing concern that racial and ethnic minority communities around the world are experiencing a disproportionate burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We investigated racial and ethnic disparities in patterns of COVID-19 testing (i.e., who received testing and who tested positive) and subsequent mortality in the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This retrospective cohort study included 5,834,543 individuals receiving care in the US Department of Veterans Affairs; most (91%) were men, 74% were non-Hispanic White (White), 19% were non-Hispanic Black (Black), and 7% were Hispanic. We evaluated associations between race/ethnicity and receipt of COVID-19 testing, a positive test result, and 30-day mortality, with multivariable adjustment for a wide range of demographic and clinical characteristics including comorbid conditions, health behaviors, medication history, site of care, and urban versus rural residence. Between February 8 and July 22, 2020, 254,595 individuals were tested for COVID-19, of whom 16,317 tested positive and 1,057 died. Black individuals were more likely to be tested (rate per 1,000 individuals: 60.0, 95% CI 59.6-60.5) than Hispanic (52.7, 95% CI 52.1-53.4) and White individuals (38.6, 95% CI 38.4-38.7). While individuals from minority backgrounds were more likely to test positive (Black versus White: odds ratio [OR] 1.93, 95% CI 1.85-2.01, p < 0.001; Hispanic versus White: OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.74-1.94, p < 0.001), 30-day mortality did not differ by race/ethnicity (Black versus White: OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80-1.17, p = 0.74; Hispanic versus White: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.73-1.34, p = 0.94). The disparity between Black and White individuals in testing positive for COVID-19 was stronger in the Midwest (OR 2.66, 95% CI 2.41-2.95, p < 0.001) than the West (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.11-1.39, p < 0.001). The disparity in testing positive for COVID-19 between Hispanic and White individuals was consistent across region, calendar time, and outbreak pattern. Study limitations include underrepresentation of women and a lack of detailed information on social determinants of health.

CONCLUSIONS

In this nationwide study, we found that Black and Hispanic individuals are experiencing an excess burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection not entirely explained by underlying medical conditions or where they live or receive care. There is an urgent need to proactively tailor strategies to contain and prevent further outbreaks in racial and ethnic minority communities.

Grade 1 Acute on Chronic Liver Failure Is a Predictor for Subsequent Grade 3 Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) results in extremely high short-term mortality in patients with underlying cirrhosis. The European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria grade ACLF severity from 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) based on organ failures (OFs) that develop after an acute decompensation (AD). However, the implications of surviving low-grade ACLF in terms of risk of subsequent high-grade ACLF are unclear.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with compensated cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration database from January 2008 to June 2016. Propensity matching for grade 1 (G1) ACLF, followed by Cox regression, was used to model risk of subsequent grade 3 (G3) ACLF. Stratified analyses of different ADs and OFs were also performed. We identified 4,878 patients with well-matched propensity scores. G1 ACLF events conferred a significantly increased risk of subsequent G3 ACLF relative no previous G1 ACLF (hazard ratio, 8.69; P < 0.001). When stratified by AD, patients with ascites or hepatic encephalopathy were significantly more likely to develop G3 ACLF relative to those with gastrointestinal bleed or infection as an AD (P < 0.001). Risk of G3 ACLF also varied significantly by type of OF characterizing previous G1 ACLF, with liver, coagulation, and circulatory failure posing the highest increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who recover from G1 ACLF have substantially increased risk of later developing G3 ACLF as compared to those who never have G1 ACLF. Moreover, reversible decompensations for G1 ACLF have a lower risk of G3 ACLF, and liver-intrinsic OFs confer a much higher risk of G3 ACLF. These findings have implications for prognosis, future surveillance, and triaging early transplant evaluation.

Excess Weight Gain After Cure of Hepatitis C Infection with Direct-Acting Antivirals

BACKGROUND

Cure from chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is readily achievable with direct-acting antivirals (DAA), but little is known about optimal management after treatment. Weight gained after DAA treatment may mitigate benefits or increase risk for liver disease progression. As the single largest sample of HCV-infected individuals receiving DAA treatment in the United States, the Veterans Affairs (VA) Birth Cohort is an ideal setting to assess weight gain after DAA treatment.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study of patients dispensed DAA therapy from January 2014 to June 2015. Weight change was calculated as the difference in weight from sustained virologic response (SVR) determination to 2 years later. Demographic, weight, height, prescription, laboratory, and diagnosis code data were used for covariate definitions. We used multiple logistic regression to assess the association between candidate predictors and excess weight gain (≥ 10 lbs) after 2 years.

RESULTS

Among 11,469 patients, 78.0% of patients were already overweight or obese at treatment initiation. Overall, SVR was achieved in 97.0% of patients. After 2 years, 52.6% of patients gained weight and 19.8% gained excess weight. In those with SVR, weight gain was as high as 38.2 lbs, with the top 10% gaining ≥ 16.5 lbs. Only 1% of those with obesity at treatment initiation normalized their weight class after 2 years. Significant predictors of post-SVR weight gain were SVR achievement, lower age, high FIB-4 score, cirrhosis, and weight class at treatment initiation.

CONCLUSION

Weight gain is common after DAA treatment, even among those who are overweight or obese prior to treatment. Major predictors include age, baseline weight, alcohol, cirrhosis, and SVR. Everyone receiving DAAs should be counseled against weight gain with a particular emphasis among those at higher risk.

Assessing the Impact of Referral on Multidisciplinary Tumor Board Outcomes in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a complex and unique cancer. At many tertiary care institutions, optimal treatment is planned at a multidisciplinary liver tumor board (MDLTB). This study examined the impact of referral on MDLTB outcomes for patients with HCC.

METHODS

Chart review was performed of incident HCC cases presented over 3 years at an American College of Surgeons accredited MDLTB. Internal cases were defined as patients whose care originated within the tertiary care institution of the MDLTB; external cases were defined as patients who received initial care from outside institutions and referred to the tertiary care MDLTB for consultation. Internal and external cases were compared for differences in HCC diagnosis, treatment, and survival.

RESULTS

There were 120 internal cases and 163 external cases. Compared with internal cases, external cases took significantly more time to be diagnosed with HCC (4.5 versus 37.5 days, P < .001) and to be discussed at MDLTB (19 versus 53 days, P < .001). Internal cases were more often diagnosed by imaging studies (77.5%), and external cases were more often diagnosed by biopsy (43%) or by consensus of experts at MDLTB (26%).

CONCLUSION

Patients with HCC, whose care originated within the tertiary care institution of the MDLTB, were less likely to require biopsy and had shorter time from initial suspicion to diagnosis of HCC. The data suggest that referral of external HCC cases to a tertiary center MDLTB at initial suspicion may limit unnecessary diagnostic procedures, possibly resulting in decreased health care costs and reduced uncertainty for patients.

Models for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality in a veterans affairs cohort

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The diagnosis of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality, making early identification of at-risk patients crucial. To date, there are no models that predict which patients with compensated cirrhosis will develop ACLF, and limited models exist to predict ACLF mortality. We sought to create novel risk prediction models using a large North American cohort.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 75,922 patients with compensated cirrhosis from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) dataset. Using 70% derivation/30% validation sets, we identified ACLF patients using the Asian Pacific Association of Liver (APASL) definition. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models (called VOCAL-Penn) for developing ACLF at 3, 6, and 12 months. We then created prediction models for ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

The VOCAL-Penn models for ACLF development had very good discrimination [concordance (C) statistics of 0.93, 0.92, and 0.89 at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively] and calibration. The mortality models also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C statistics 0.89 and 0.88, respectively), outperforming the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, and the APASL ACLF Research Consortium ACLF scores.

CONCLUSION

We have developed novel tools for predicting development of ACLF in compensated cirrhosis patients, as well as for ACLF mortality. These tools may be used to proactively guide patient follow-up, prognostication, escalation of care, and transplant evaluation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting development of APASL ACLF at 3 months (a), 6 months (b), and 1 year (c).

Covid-19 by Race and Ethnicity: A National Cohort Study of 6 Million United States Veterans

BACKGROUND

There is growing concern that racial and ethnic minority communities around the world are experiencing a disproportionate burden of morbidity and mortality from symptomatic SARS-Cov-2 infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Most studies investigating racial and ethnic disparities to date have focused on hospitalized patients or have not characterized who received testing or those who tested positive for Covid-19.

OBJECTIVE

To compare patterns of testing and test results for coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) and subsequent mortality by race and ethnicity in the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

PARTICIPANTS

5,834,543 individuals in care, among whom 62,098 were tested and 5,630 tested positive for Covid-19 between February 8 and May 4, 2020. Exposures: Self-reported race/ethnicity.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We evaluated associations between race/ethnicity and receipt of Covid-19 testing, a positive test result, and 30-day mortality, accounting for a wide range of demographic and clinical risk factors including comorbid conditions, site of care, and urban versus rural residence.

RESULTS

Among all individuals in care, 74% were non-Hispanic white (white), 19% non-Hispanic black (black), and 7% Hispanic. Compared with white individuals, black and Hispanic individuals were more likely to be tested for Covid-19 (tests per 1000: white=9.0, [95% CI 8.9 to 9.1]; black=16.4, [16.2 to 16.7]; and Hispanic=12.2, [11.9 to 12.5]). While individuals from minority backgrounds were more likely to test positive (black vs white: OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.81 to 2.12; Hispanic vs white: OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.53 to 1.96), 30-day mortality did not differ by race/ethnicity (black vs white: OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.33; Hispanic vs white: OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Black and Hispanic individuals are experiencing an excess burden of Covid-19 not entirely explained by underlying medical conditions or where they live or receive care. While there was no observed difference in mortality by race or ethnicity, our findings may underestimate risk in the broader US population as health disparities tend to be reduced in VA.

Covid-19 by Race and Ethnicity: A National Cohort Study of 6 Million United States Veterans

BACKGROUND

There is growing concern that racial and ethnic minority communities around the world are experiencing a disproportionate burden of morbidity and mortality from symptomatic SARS-Cov-2 infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Most studies investigating racial and ethnic disparities to date have focused on hospitalized patients or have not characterized who received testing or those who tested positive for Covid-19.

OBJECTIVE

To compare patterns of testing and test results for coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) and subsequent mortality by race and ethnicity in the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

PARTICIPANTS

5,834,543 individuals in care, among whom 62,098 were tested and 5,630 tested positive for Covid-19 between February 8 and May 4, 2020. Exposures: Self-reported race/ethnicity.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We evaluated associations between race/ethnicity and receipt of Covid-19 testing, a positive test result, and 30-day mortality, accounting for a wide range of demographic and clinical risk factors including comorbid conditions, site of care, and urban versus rural residence.

RESULTS

Among all individuals in care, 74% were non-Hispanic white (white), 19% non-Hispanic black (black), and 7% Hispanic. Compared with white individuals, black and Hispanic individuals were more likely to be tested for Covid-19 (tests per 1000: white=9.0, [95% CI 8.9 to 9.1]; black=16.4, [16.2 to 16.7]; and Hispanic=12.2, [11.9 to 12.5]). While individuals from minority backgrounds were more likely to test positive (black vs white: OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.81 to 2.12; Hispanic vs white: OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.53 to 1.96), 30-day mortality did not differ by race/ethnicity (black vs white: OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.33; Hispanic vs white: OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Black and Hispanic individuals are experiencing an excess burden of Covid-19 not entirely explained by underlying medical conditions or where they live or receive care. While there was no observed difference in mortality by race or ethnicity, our findings may underestimate risk in the broader US population as health disparities tend to be reduced in VA.

Risk prediction scores for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) causes high short-term mortality in patients with previously stable chronic liver disease. To date there are no models to predict which patients are likely to develop ACLF, and existing models to predict ACLF mortality are based on limited cohorts. We sought to create novel risk prediction scores using a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 74 790 patients with incident cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration database using randomized 70% derivation/30% validation sets. ACLF events were identified per the European ACLF criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models for developing ACLF at 3, 6 and 12 months, and ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days. Mortality models were compared to model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium and the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score.

RESULTS

Models for the developing ACLF had very good discrimination (concordance [C] statistics 0.83-0.87) at all timepoints. Models for ACLF mortality also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C-statistics 0.79-0.82), and were superior to MELD, MELD-sodium and the CLIF-C ACLF score. The calibration of the novel models was excellent at all timepoints.

CONCLUSION

We have obtained highly-predictive models for developing ACLF, as well as for ACLF short-term mortality in a diverse United States cohort. These may be used to identify outpatients at significant risk of ACLF, which may prompt closer follow-up or early transplant referral, and facilitate decision making for patients with diagnosed ACLF, including escalation of care, expedited transplant evaluation or palliation.

Covid-19 Testing, Hospital Admission, and Intensive Care Among 2,026,227 United States Veterans Aged 54-75 Years

IMPORTANCE

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection causes coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), an evolving pandemic. Limited data are available characterizing SARS-Cov-2 infection in the United States.

OBJECTIVE

To determine associations between demographic and clinical factors and testing positive for coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19+), and among Covid-19+ subsequent hospitalization and intensive care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study including all patients tested for Covid-19 between February 8 and March 30, 2020, inclusive. We extracted electronic health record data from the national Veterans Affairs Healthcare System, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, on 2,026,227 patients born between 1945 and 1965 and active in care. Exposures: Demographic data, comorbidities, medication history, substance use, vital signs, and laboratory measures. Laboratory tests were analyzed first individually and then grouped into a validated summary measure of physiologic injury (VACS Index). Main Outcomes and Measures: We evaluated which factors were associated with Covid-19+ among all who tested. Among Covid-19+ we identified factors associated with hospitalization or intensive care. We identified independent associations using multivariable and conditional multivariable logistic regression with multiple imputation of missing values.

RESULTS

Among Veterans aged 54-75 years, 585/3,789 (15.4%) tested Covid-19+. In adjusted analysis (C-statistic=0.806) black race was associated with Covid-19+ (OR 4.68, 95% CI 3.79-5.78) and the association remained in analyses conditional on site (OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.89-3.46). In adjusted models, laboratory abnormalities (especially fibrosis-4 score [FIB-4] >3.25 OR 8.73, 95% CI 4.11-18.56), and VACS Index (per 5-point increase OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.43-1.84) were strongly associated with hospitalization. Associations were similar for intensive care. Although significant in unadjusted analyses, associations with comorbid conditions and medications were substantially reduced and, in most cases, no longer significant after adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Black race was strongly associated with Covid-19+, but not with hospitalization or intensive care. Among Covid-19+, risk of hospitalization and intensive care may be better characterized by laboratory measures and vital signs than by comorbid conditions or prior medication exposure.

Analysis of weekend effect in severe acute liver injury: A nationwide database study

Background and Aims

Severe acute liver injury (ALI) can lead to poor outcomes without timely management. Comparatively worse outcomes in various severe, emergent conditions have been attributed to reduced hospital resources experienced by patient weekend admissions, a phenomenon termed "weekend effect." To date, a weekend effect has not been studied in severe ALI, an emergency also necessitating timely management. We aimed to evaluate such an effect in this condition by analyzing a large national inpatient database in the United States.

Methods

We analyzed the Nationwide/National Inpatient Sample (NIS) 2000 to 2014, the largest inpatient, all-payer database in the United States (US), containing sociodemographic, clinical, patient-, and hospital-level data. We identified severe ALI using International Classification of Disease, 9^th Revision diagnosis codes for acute/subacute hepatic necrosis (570) with encephalopathy (572.2). Our primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Using a full-model approach for covariate selection, we performed multiple logistic regression modeling to assess for weekend effect and identify predictors of in-hospital mortality.

Results

We identified 15 762 eligible hospitalizations, with 12 182 (77.3%) having complete covariate data. This sample comprised 53.3% males, 69.3% White race, and had an average (± SD) age of 55.0 ± 14.1 years. We utilized a full-model approach for covariate inclusion but did not include patient transfer data due to limited availability. We observed no significant mortality differences in weekend admissions (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.97-1.15, P = 0.02). However, significantly higher mortality was associated with male sex, older age, Black or Hispanic race, Northeast US hospitalization, urban teaching status, and larger hospital size. Sensitivity analyses using multiple imputation datasets and transfer covariates did not change our results.

Conclusion

We did not observe a weekend effect of in-hospital mortality for weekend admissions for severe ALI, but our overall diagnosis ascertainment yield was low-indicating that lack of accurate documentation for the etiology of severe ALI may be masking an effect. Additionally, our findings suggest that racial differences and hospital-level characteristics in the context of severe ALI may be associated with varying outcomes, regardless of admission day, which warrants further research.

Quality Measures, All-Cause Mortality, and Health Care Use in a National Cohort of Veterans With Cirrhosis

Decompensated cirrhosis is associated with high morbidity and mortality. However, no standardized quality measures (QMs) have yet been adopted widely. The Veterans Affairs (VA) Advanced Liver Disease Technical Advisory Group recently developed a set of six internal QMs to guide quality improvement efforts in cirrhosis in the domains of access to care, hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance, variceal surveillance, quality of inpatient care for upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and cirrhosis-related rehospitalizations. We aimed to (1) quantify adherence to cirrhosis QMs and (2) determine whether adherence was associated with all-cause mortality and health care use within a large national cohort of veterans with cirrhosis. We performed a retrospective study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Asociated with Liver Disease cohort of 121,129 patients newly diagnosed with cirrhosis from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2016, at 128 VA facilities. The mean follow-up time was 2.7 years (interquartile range, 1.1-5.1 years). Adherence to outpatient access to specialty care was 71%, variceal surveillance was 32%, and early postdischarge care was 54%. In adjusted analyses, outpatient access to specialty care (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.82), hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95), variceal surveillance (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99), and early postdischarge care (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.54-0.60) were associated with lower all-cause mortality. Readmissions after 30 days (HR, 1.53; 1.46-1.60) and 90 days (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.54-1.70) were associated with higher all-cause mortality. Higher adherence to QMs was also associated with lower inpatient health care use. Conclusion: Five of the six proposed VA cirrhosis QMs were measurable using existing data sources, associated with mortality and health care use, and may be used to guide future quality improvement efforts in cirrhosis.