[Educational level as a factor in length of life]

"The paper deals with...the interrelation of the education level and death-rate of the Ukrainian SSR population.... Knowledge [of] the dependence of the death-rate on the educational level may be used to predict the average duration of the forthcoming life and education composition of the population." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Aging and social expenditures in Italy: some issues associated with population projections

"After describing the main results of the recent Italian population projections, and some possible consequences...aging may have on social expenditures, this paper focuses on attempts to improve the accuracy of development assumptions, with special regard to natural components. Emphasis is placed on the importance of applying specific methodological tools to define self-explanatory assumptions for fertility and mortality and to produce projections which could be considered, with reasonable limitations, as real forecasts."

Estimating the probability of emigration from individual-specific data: the case of Italy in the early twentieth century

"This article develops a method for estimating the probability of emigration conditional on the observed characteristics of individuals. In addition, it is shown how to calculate the mean, standard error, and confidence intervals of the conditional probability of emigration given a random sample of emigrants. The technique is illustrated by providing statistically consistent estimates of the probability an Italian would emigrate to the United States in 1901 and 1911, conditional on personal attributes."

[Population projection for the Czech Republic, 1995-2020]

"In Autumn 1995 the Czech Statistical Office published the new population prognosis until the year 2020.... The change of population climate connected with the over-all change of economic and social conditions in the process of social transformation appears to be profound and fundamental. It is therefore unlikely that there would occur a turn in the near future and that...natality would grow...again to a...significant extent." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Migration and the growth of metropolitan areas in the third world

"The purpose of the present paper [is] to investigate further the role of migration in developing countries by analyzing the components of population growth in 26 large metropolitan areas in Africa, Asia, and Latin America." The process of urban population growth is first described. Then, using data from censuses and official U.N. sources, the author examines the relative importance of migration and natural increase in urban growth and in the growth of the largest urban areas. The focus is primarily on the period 1960-1970. Consideration is also given to "estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the city in order to assess the full effect of net migration on metropolitan growth, analyses of the relationships between the components of growth and several structural variables and, finally, a discussion of the results." The importance of migration as a factor affecting urban growth is noted.

Australia's indigenous population: policy implications of demographic change

"The demography of Australia's indigenous population is quite distinct from that of the mainstream.... Given the pressing policy significance of demographic analysis in indigenous affairs, three questions, in particular, appear of immediate relevance: How fast is the population growing and how is it likely to grow over the coming years? What is the age structure of the population and how is this likely to change? What is the spatial distribution of the population and how is this changing? This paper outlines the basic facts regarding each of these questions and considers the broad policy implications of indigenous population change into the new millennium."

The role of trans-Tasman migration in forecasting the New Zealand population

"This article argues that, for the short to medium term, [New Zealand population] projections can be improved upon by adopting econometric methodologies which take explicitly into account the demographic-economic two-way interaction in certain components of international migration. Specifically, the article summarizes research on the causes and consequences of trans-Tasman migration, which is the dominant component of the volatility in New Zealand's net migration. It is shown how these findings can aid population forecasting."

[Population prospects in the Czech Republic (demographic prognosis to the year 2010)]

"Computation of the [Czech Republic] population prognosis based on the 1991 census results was carried out in 8 variants.... All variants of prognostic computation suggest that round the year 2005 there will be attained the maximum population numbers." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)