Three Harm-Based Arguments for a Moral Obligation to Vaccinate

A particularly strong reason to vaccinate against transmittable diseases, based on considerations of harm, is to contribute to the realization of population-level herd immunity. We argue, however, that herd immunity alone is insufficient for deriving a strong harm-based moral obligation to vaccinate in all circumstances, since the obligation significantly weakens well above and well below the herd immunity threshold. The paper offers two additional harm-based arguments that, together with the herd immunity argument, consolidates our moral obligation. First, we argue that individuals should themselves aim not to expose others to risk of harm, and that this consideration becomes stronger the more non-vaccinated people there are, i.e., the further we are below herd immunity. Second, we elaborate on two pragmatic reasons to vaccinate beyond the realization of herd immunity, pertaining to instability of vaccination rates and population heterogeneity, and argue that vaccinating above the threshold should serve as a precautionary measure for buttressing herd immunity. We also show that considerations of harm have normative primacy in establishing this obligation over considerations of fairness. Although perfectly sound, considerations of fairness are, at worst secondary, or at best complementary to considerations of harm.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the general population of Oman: results from four successive nationwide sero-epidemiological surveys

OBJECTIVE

To assess the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Oman and longitudinal changes in antibody levels over time within the first 11 months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

METHODS

This nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted as a four-cycle serosurvey using a multi-stage stratified sampling method from July to November 2020. A questionnaire was used and included demographics, history of acute respiratory infection and list of symptoms, COVID-19 contact, previous diagnosis or admission, travel history and risk factors.

RESULTS

In total, 17,457 participants were surveyed. Thirty percent were female and 66.3% were Omani. There was a significant increase in seroprevalence throughout the study cycles, from 5.5% (4.8-6.2%) in Cycle 1 to 22% (19.6-24.6%) in Cycle 4. There was no difference in seroprevalence between genders, but significant differences were found between age groups. There was a transition of seroprevalence from being higher in non-Omanis than Omanis in Cycle 1 [9.1% (7.6-10.9%) vs 3.2% (2.6-3.9%)] to being higher in Omanis than non-Omanis in Cycle 4 [24.3% (21.0-27.9%) vs 16.8% (14.9-18.9%)]. There was remarkable variation in the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 according to governorate. Close contacts of people with COVID-19 had a 96% higher risk of having the disease [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.96, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.64-2.34]. Labourers had 58% higher risk of infection compared with office workers (AOR 1.58, 95% CI 1.04-2.35).

CONCLUSION

This study showed a wide variation in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across governorates in Oman, with higher estimated seroprevalence in migrants in the first two cycles. Prevalence estimates remain low and are insufficient to provide herd immunity.

COVID-19 rhapsody: Rage towards advanced diagnostics and therapeutic strategy

The deadly global outbreak of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has forged an unrivaled threat to human civilization. Contemplating its profuse impact, initial risk management and therapies are needed, as well as rapid detection strategies alongside treatments with existing drugs or traditional treatments to provide better clinical support for critical patients. Conventional detection techniques have been considered but do not sufficiently meet the current challenges of effective COVID-19 diagnosis. Therefore, several modern techniques including point-of-care diagnosis with a biosensor, clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-associated proteins that function as nuclease (Cas) technology, next-generation sequencing, serological, digital, and imaging approaches have delivered improved and noteworthy success compared to that using traditional strategies. Conventional drug treatment, plasma therapy, and vaccine development are also ongoing. However, alternative medicines including Ayurveda, herbal drugs, homeopathy, and Unani have also been enlisted as prominent treatment strategies for developing herd immunity and physical defenses against COVID-19. All considered, this review can help develop rapid and simplified diagnostic strategies, as well as advanced evidence-based modern therapeutic approaches that will aid in combating the global pandemic.

The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach

OBJECTIVES

To assess the economic burden of COVID-19 that would arise absent behavioral or policy responses under the herd immunity approach in the United States and compare it to the total burden that also accounts for estimates of the value of lives lost.

METHODS

We use the trajectories of age-specific human and physical capital in the production process to calculate output changes based on a human capital-augmented production function. We also calculate the total burden that results when including the value of lives lost as calculated from mortality rates of COVID-19 and estimates for the value of a statistical life in the United States based on studies assessing individual's willingness to pay to avoid risks.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that the GDP loss associated with unmitigated COVID-19 would amount to a cumulative US$1.4 trillion by 2030 assuming that 60 percent of the population is infected over three years. This is equivalent to around 7.7 percent of GDP in 2019 (in constant 2010 US$) or an average tax on yearly output of 0.6 percent. After applying the value of a statistical life to account for the value of lives lost, our analyses show that the total burden can mount to between US$17 and 94 trillion over the next decade, which is equivalent to an annual tax burden between 8 and 43 percent.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that the United States would incur a sizeable burden if it adopted a non-interventionist herd immunity approach.

FUNDING

Research reported in this paper was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Project INV-006261), and the Sino-German Center for Research Promotion (Project C-0048), which is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Preparation of this article was also supported by the Value of Vaccination Research Network (VoVRN) through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant OPP1158136). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 seroprevalence study in Pimpri-Chinchwad, Maharashtra, India coinciding with falling trend - Do the results suggest imminent herd immunity?

Background

COVID-19 is a public health concern currently demanding continuous efforts to understand its epidemiology. Pimpri-Chinchwad township with a population of over 25 lakhs is located in Maharashtra, one of the worst affected states in India. After the incidence peaked in the township in mid-September 2020, cases started declining even as lockdown restrictions were eased.

Objectives

A seroprevalence study was conducted to understand the transmission dynamics of the pandemic in this region.

Methods

We carried out a population-based seroprevalence study for IgG antibodies for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) among 5000 residents 12 years and above selected by the cluster random sampling. We selected 50 clusters in slums, 80 clusters in tenements, and 70 clusters from housing societies. The field work for collection of samples was carried out from October 07 to October 17, 2020. We used kit from Abbott (SARS-CoV-2 IgG), which employs chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay technology. The prevalence of IgG antibodies was expressed as point estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). These were weighted for areas and cluster effect and further adjusted for test performance.

Results

The overall seropositivity for IgG was 34.04% (95% CIl 31.3%-36.8%). Slum dwellers had 40.9% positivity rate (95% CI 37.0%-44.7%), those in tenements 41.2% (95% CI 37.7%-44.8%) and people living in housing societies had 29.8% positivity (95% CI 25.8%-33.8%).

Conclusion

A considerable proportion of population had encountered the novel coronavirus approaching partial, if not complete, herd immunity, which may partly explain the declining trend in spite of easing of lockdown restrictions.

Will vaccine-derived protective immunity curtail COVID-19 variants in the US?

Multiple effective vaccines are currently being deployed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, and are viewed as the major factor in marked reductions of disease burden in regions with moderate to high vaccination coverage. The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination programs is, however, significantly threatened by the emergence of new SARS-COV-2 variants that, in addition to being more transmissible than the wild-type (original) strain, may at least partially evade existing vaccines. A two-strain (one wild-type, one variant) and two-group (vaccinated or otherwise) mechanistic mathematical model is designed and used to assess the impact of the vaccine-induced cross-protective efficacy on the spread the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that, in the absence of any co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant, the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold needed to eliminate the wild-type strain can be achieved if 59% of the US population is fully-vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. This threshold increases to 76% if the wild-type strain is co-circulating with the Alpha variant (a SARS-CoV-2 variant that is 56% more transmissible than the wild-type strain). If the wild-type strain is co-circulating with the Delta variant (which is estimated to be 100% more transmissible than the wild-type strain), up to 82% of the US population needs to be vaccinated with either of the aforementioned vaccines to achieve the vaccine-derived herd immunity. Global sensitivity analysis of the model reveal the following four parameters as the most influential in driving the value of the reproduction number of the variant strain (hence, COVID-19 dynamics) in the US: (a) the infectiousness of the co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant, (b) the proportion of individuals fully vaccinated (using Pfizer or Moderna vaccine) against the wild-type strain, (c) the cross-protective efficacy the vaccines offer against the variant strain and (d) the modification parameter accounting for the reduced infectiousness of fully-vaccinated individuals experiencing breakthrough infection. Specifically, numerical simulations of the model show that future waves or surges of the COVID-19 pandemic can be prevented in the US if the two vaccines offer moderate level of cross-protection against the variant (at least 67%). This study further suggests that a new SARS-CoV-2 variant can cause a significant disease surge in the US if (i) the vaccine coverage against the wild-type strain is low (roughly <66%) (ii) the variant is much more transmissible (e.g., 100% more transmissible), than the wild-type strain, or (iii) the level of cross-protection offered by the vaccine is relatively low (e.g., less than 50%). A new SARS-CoV-2 variant will not cause such surge in the US if it is only moderately more transmissible (e.g., the Alpha variant, which is 56% more transmissible) than the wild-type strain, at least 66% of the population of the US is fully vaccinated, and the three vaccines being deployed in the US (Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson) offer a moderate level of cross-protection against the variant.

COVID-19 Vaccines: Speedy Development and their Use to be Saviour of Humanity

COVID-19 disease is caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), and it was declared as a pandemic by WHO within two and half months of detection of first case. The pandemic situation induced unprecedented cooperation amongst countries, academia, public sector institutions and industry in sharing knowledge, resources and strategies. In this article, development of vaccines and their delivery system is discussed. The regulatory toxicology and clinical trials are the most important factors to ensure safety and formation of neutralizing antibodies for efficacy. The article creates awareness about the global cooperation and efforts in developing the vaccines speedily for the society. Finally, results show that all the COVID-19 vaccines trigger an immune response to enable your body to fight and kill virus and none of them cause COVID-19 disease.

Methods for estimating the direct and indirect effect of 10 valent pneumococcal vaccine on nasopharyngeal carriage in children under 2 years in Matiari, Pakistan

Pneumonia is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children worldwide. The ten valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Pakistan's Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in 2012 as a 3 + 0 schedule without catchup immunization. Nasopharyngeal carriage is taken as a surrogate marker to measure the impact of pneumococcal vaccine on populations. Carriage surveys are necessary to monitor the persistence of Vaccine Type (VT) serotypes, the emergence of Non-Vaccine Type (NVT) serotypes, and their role in both transmission and disease. This article describes various troubleshooting measures which we undertook to adopt the protocol to our setting. We also used an innovative approach to describe various epidemiological parameters of vaccine effectiveness against carriage. It is important to publish these methods to allow for valid regional and temporal comparisons of results in different settings. Thus, in this article, we describe the following methods for isolating upper airway pneumococcal carriage:•Methods for the collection, transport, and storage of nasopharyngeal samples.•Methods for identification and serotyping of pneumococci.•Methods for estimation of the direct and indirect effects of pneumococcal vaccines on nasopharyngeal carriage.

Herd immunity: challenges and the way forward in Korea

Vaccination is considered to be the most effective measure for preventing the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Many countries, including of Korea, are focusing on achieving herd immunity with the goal of reaching a vaccination rate of 70-80%. However, achieving herd immunity does not mean eradicating COVID-19, and the following challenges can occur in the process of achieving herd immunity. First, as the vaccination rate is likely to slow down over time, it is necessary to promote the benefits of vaccination through risk communication strategies and provide incentives for those who have been vaccinated. Second, a booster dose may be required depending on future studies on vaccine-induced immunity. Third, since variants capable of evading immunity and with higher transmissibility can emerge, rapid contract tracing and regular community genomic surveillance could help mitigate the impact of new variants. When the impact of COVID-19 is controlled to the level of seasonal influenza, the current public health measures that have been strictly imposed on society since the beginning of the pandemic will no longer be needed. The overall response strategy to COVID-19 will need to change accordingly, based on evaluations of the level of population immunity. These changes will include more efficient and targeted contact tracing and eased quarantine measures for vaccinated close contacts and travelers. Mask wearing and a minimum of social distancing will still be required in the journey towards the end of the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic will end, but the virus will not disappear.

Immunity and security using holism, ambient intelligence, triangulation, and stigmergy: Sensitivity analysis confronts fake news and COVID-19 using open set transduction

This paper introduces a multi-faceted security methodology based on Holism, Ambient Intelligence, Triangulation, and Stigmergy (HATS) to combat the spread of current pandemics such as fake news and COVID-19. HATS leverages the apparent complementarity and similarity of physical and mental pandemics using adversarial learning and transduction to promote immunity on both using conformal prediction and principled symbiosis. As such, HATS confronts both mental and physical adversity found in misinformation and disinformation. It confers herd immunity using holism and triangulation that call to advantage on sensitivity analysis using open set transduction and meta-reasoning. Ambient intelligence and stigmergy further mediate meta-reasoning and re-identification in building and sharing immunity. As change is constant and everything is fluid, as truth is not always reality and reality is not always truth, and as truth is imponderable and lie can become truth, two things have to happen. First, reconditioning and reconfiguration engage random deficiency to discern familiarity from strangeness and a-typicality. Second, transfer learning using trans-adaptation and transposition, serve adaptation and interoperability. Together, this empowers open set transduction in facing adaptive persistent threats such as deception and denial when it engages moving target defense using modification and de-identification. Immunology and security further come together using to advantage the coupling of active and adversarial learning.

Long-term persistence of crAss-like phage crAss001 is associated with phase variation in Bacteroides intestinalis

BACKGROUND

The crAss-like phages are ubiquitous and highly abundant members of the human gut virome that infect commensal bacteria of the order Bacteroidales. Although incapable of lysogeny, these viruses demonstrate long-term persistence in the human gut microbiome, dominating the virome in some individuals.

RESULTS

Here we show that rapid phase variation of alternate capsular polysaccharides in Bacteroides intestinalis cultures plays an important role in a dynamic equilibrium between phage sensitivity and resistance, allowing phage and bacteria to multiply in parallel. The data also suggests the role of a concomitant phage persistence mechanism associated with delayed lysis of infected cells, similar to carrier state infection. From an ecological and evolutionary standpoint, this type of phage-host interaction is consistent with the Piggyback-the-Winner model, which suggests a preference towards lysogenic or other "benign" forms of phage infection when the host is stably present at high abundance.

CONCLUSION

Long-term persistence of bacteriophage and host could result from mutually beneficial mechanisms driving bacterial strain-level diversity and phage survival in complex environments.

Prosocial vaccination

Most vaccines not only directly protect vaccinated individuals but also provide a social benefit through community protection. Therefore, vaccination can be considered a prosocial act to protect others. We review the recent empirical evidence on (i) how prosocial concerns relate to vaccination intentions and (ii) promoting prosocial vaccination through explaining community protection or inducing concern for vulnerable others. The available evidence suggests that promoting the prosocial aspect of vaccinations could be a vaccination communication strategy to improve vaccine uptake. We point to several areas in which future research can test the boundary conditions of this approach and increase its effectiveness.

Invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b infection in a patient with transient hypogammaglobulinemia of infancy

We describe a patient with invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infection despite being completely immunized by a conjugate Hib vaccine. Although Hib vaccination has contributed to significant reduction in invasive Hib infection, there are some case reports of invasive Hib infections despite immunization. Immunoglobulin (Ig) deficiency is the main cause of primary vaccine failure, and IgG2 subclass deficiency is known to be the leading cause. A previously healthy 13-month-old boy visited the outpatient clinic with a 5-day history of fever (40.0 °C), cough, and vomiting, and was diagnosed with bacterial meningitis, purulent pericarditis, and arthritis. Hib was recovered from blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and pericardial fluid. Immunological examination revealed subnormal IgG and IgA titers at 13 and 17 months of age. Serum IgG2 titer was recovered at 17 months of age despite being low at 13 months. Comprehensive gene analysis for primary immunodeficiency syndromes (primary antibody deficiency, common variable immunodeficiency, and toll-like receptor abnormalities) were negative. The antibody titer against Hib [anti-polyribosylribitol phosphate (PRP) antibody] was lower than the long-term protective titer (1.0 μg/ml) at 13 months of age, but was reactively increased to 2.38 μg/mL two months after booster immunization. Transient hypogammaglobulinemia of infancy (THI) is described as an accentuation and prolongation of the physiologic Ig nadir that is normally observed during infancy and defined as low IgG and IgA levels in the first three years of life. We speculate that he developed an invasive Hib infection as a result of primary Hib vaccine failure caused by THI.

Forecasting fully vaccinated people against COVID-19 and examining future vaccination rate for herd immunity in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) has spread rapidly all over the world and it is known that the most effective way to eliminate the disease is vaccination. Although the traditional vaccine development process is quite long, more than ten COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for use in about a year. The COVID-19 vaccines that have been administered are highly effective enough, but achieving herd immunity is required to end the pandemic. The motivation of this study is to contribute to review the countries’ vaccine policies and adjusting the manufacturing plans of the vaccine companies. In this study, the total number of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 was forecasted in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which is a new approach in vaccination studies. Additionally, for herd immunity, the percentage of fully vaccinated people in these regions at the beginning of 2021 summer was determined. ARIMA results show that in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World will reach 139 million, 109 million, 127 million, 8 million, 38 million, and 441 million people will be fully vaccinated on 1 June 2021, respectively. According to these results, 41.8% of the US, 2.3% of Asia, 17% of Europe, 0.6% of Africa, 8.8% of South America, and 5.6% of the World population will be fully vaccinated people against the COVID-19. Results show that countries are far from the herd immunity threshold level desired to reach for safely slow or stop the COVID-19 epidemic.

[Pneumococcal vaccination]

Pneumokokken sind der häufigste bakterielle Erreger der ambulant erworbenen Pneumonie und gehören weltweit zu den häufigsten impfpräventablen Todesursachen. Es gibt einen Polysaccharidimpfstoff, der die Kapselpolysaccharide von 23 der über 90 bekannten Serotypen enthält, einen guten Schutz vor invasiven Pneumokokkeninfektionen vermittelt, aber T‑Zellen nicht stimuliert und damit kein immunologisches Gedächtnis hinterlässt. Bei Immunsupprimierten hat er eine eingeschränkte Wirksamkeit. Zunächst für Kleinkinder und später auch für Erwachsene wurde ein 13-valenter Konjugatimpfstoff zugelassen, der weniger Serotypen erfasst, aber ein immunologisches Gedächtnis hinterlässt und eine mukosale Immunität, d. h. die Eradikation gesunder Pneumokokkenträger und damit Herdenprotektionseffekte, vermittelt. Die STIKO empfiehlt derzeit bei verschiedenen Komorbiditäten sowie als Standardimpfung ab 60 Jahre die Indikationsimpfung mit PPV23, ggf. mit Wiederholungsimpfung nach frühestens 6 Jahren. Patienten mit Immunsuppression, chronischem Nierenversagen oder chronischer Leberinsuffizienz sollten wegen der eingeschränkten Wirksamkeit von PPV23 sowie einem hohen Risiko für Infektionen eine sequenzielle Impfung (zuerst PCV13, gefolgt von PPV23 nach 6 bis 12 Monaten) erhalten.

High seroprevalence for SARS-CoV-2 infection in South America, but still not enough for herd immunity!

Herd immunity is considered to be a relevant aspect of COVID-19 epidemiology. In this regard, seroprevalence studies are essential for understanding how far countries and regions are from that potential point. This study analyzed seroprevalence data in nine studies from South America, which is a region that has been badly affected by COVID-19. Seroprevalence values ​​were high, with percentages up to 70.0% (95% CI 67.0-73.4%) in Iquitos, Peru. A meta-analysis of such data enabled a pooled seroprevalence to be obtained, estimated at 33.6% (95% CI 28.6-38.5%). Despite this, the COVID-19 pandemic in South America continues to significantly affect countries such as Brazil, Colombia, and Peru.

Politicizing COVID-19 Vaccines in the Press: A Critical Discourse Analysis

Undoubtedly and unfortunately, COVID-19 pandemic has been politicized in media see Abbas (Int J Semiot Law, 2020), Rui Zhang (Media Asia 48:89-107, 2021). Although vaccines play a crucial role in eliminating the pandemic, they have been politicized by media. This article aims to show how COVID-19 vaccines are politicized in the press. The article collects some selected reports on vaccines taken from American and Chinese media. The reports are analyzed according to an analytical framework suggested by the researcher. The framework and data collection and description are clearly presented in the method section. Based on data analysis, the article shows that COVID-19 vaccines have been politicized. The study recommends that diseases and vaccines should not be politicized. In other words, we should respect and trust science and our scientists for no other purpose than to reach herd immunity and overcome a dangerous pandemic that has taken and is still taking thousands of innocent lives.

A novel compartmental model to capture the nonlinear trend of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic took the world by surprise and surpassed the expectations of epidemiologists, governments, medical experts, and the scientific community as a whole. The majority of epidemiological models failed to capture the non-linear trend of the susceptible compartment and were unable to model this pandemic accurately. This study presents a variant of the well-known SEIRD model to account for social awareness measures, variable death rate, and the presence of asymptomatic infected individuals. The proposed SEAIRDQ model accounts for the transition of individuals between the susceptible and social awareness compartments. We tested our model against the reported cumulative infection and death data for different states in the US and observed over 98.8% accuracy. Results of this study give new insights into the prevailing reproduction number and herd immunity across the US.

SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a synagogue community: longevity and strength of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG responses

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is still ongoing along with the global vaccination efforts against it. Here, we aimed to understand the longevity and strength of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG responses in a small community (n = 283) six months following local SARS-COV-2 outbreak in March 2020. Three serological assays were compared and neutralisation capability was also determined. Overall 16.6% (47/283) of the participants were seropositive and 89.4% (42/47) of the IgG positives had neutralising antibodies. Most of the symptomatic individuals confirmed as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive during the outbreak were seropositive (30/32, 93.8%) and 33.3% of the individuals who quarantined with a PCR confirmed patient had antibodies. Serological assays comparison revealed that Architect (Abbott) targeting the N protein LIASON^® (DiaSorin) targeting the S protein and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) targeting receptor binding domain detected 9.5% (27/283), 17.3% (49/283) and 17% (48/283), respectively, as IgG positives. The latter two assays highly agreed (kappa = 0.89) between each other. In addition, 95%, (19/20, by ELISA) and 90.9% (20/22, with LIASON) and only 71.4% (15/21, by Architect) of individuals that were seropositive in May 2020 were found positive also in September. The unexpected low rate of overall immunity indicates the absence of un-noticed, asymptomatic infections. Lack of overall high correlation between the assays is attributed mainly to target-mediated antibody responses and suggests that using a single serological assay may be misleading.

COVID-19: individual and herd immunity

Immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus ensures protection against reinfection by this virus thanks to the combined action of neutralizing antibodies and T lymphocytes specific to viral proteins, in particular the Spike protein. It must be distinguished from the immune response that ensures healing of the infection following contamination that involves innate immunity, particularly type 1 interferons, and which is followed by adaptive cellular and humoral immunity. The importance of the effect of interferons is highlighted by the occurrence of severe forms of the disease in genetically deficient subjects or in patients with antibodies neutralizing type 1 interferon. Herd immunity is not an individual biological property. It is a mathematical property that qualifies the fact that when the proportion of subjects with individual immunity is high enough, there is little chance that an epidemic can occur. The level of that proportion-the herd immunity of the population can be computed under theoretical, often unrealistic, hypotheses, and is difficult to assess in natural conditions.

Will achieving herd immunity be a road to success to end the COVID-19 pandemic?

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the availability of several different new vaccines, their varying supply levels, effectiveness, and immunity duration across different ethnic populations, together with natural infection rates, will have an impact on when each country can reach herd immunity (ranging from 15.3% to 77.1%). Here we estimate the population proportions still required to gain immunity (ranging from 0.01% to 48.8%) to reach an overall herd immunity level to stop the exponential virus spread in 32 selected countries.

Effect of population heterogeneity on herd immunity and on vaccination decision making process

We study the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity level and on individual's vaccination decision making process. We first formulate the mathematical model in a population with two subgroups, based on different activity levels or different susceptibilities. The herd immunity threshold is derived and discussed. It is calculated that the required vaccine coverage level for herd immunity in a heterogeneous mixing population can be varied significantly. The required vaccine coverage level is lower than the classical herd immunity level, if the vaccine coverage level in the more active group or more susceptible group is higher than the other subgroup. It is suggested that the classical herd immunity levels can be misleading in the process of planning mass vaccination programs. The analysis is further extended to study the population with more subgroups. We then study the formal vaccination games to simulate the process of vaccination decision making, in either homogeneous or heterogeneous mixing populations. It is proved that the Nash equilibrium in the vaccination game is not unique if population heterogeneity is considered. Moreover, herd immunity is not achieved if individuals are solely driven by self-interests.

A theoretical exploration of the origin and early evolution of a pandemic

A virus that can cause a global pandemic must be highly adaptive to human conditions. Such adaptation is not likely to have emerged suddenly but, instead, may have evolved step by step with each step favored by natural selection. It is thus necessary to develop a theory about the origin in order to guide the search. Here, we propose such a model whereby evolution occurs in both the virus and the hosts (where the evolution is somatic; i.e., in the immune system). The hosts comprise three groups - the wild animal hosts, the nearby human population, and farther-away human populations. The theory suggests that the conditions under which the pandemic has initially evolved are: (i) an abundance of wild animals in the place of origin (PL0); (ii) a nearby human population of low density; (iii) frequent and long-term animal-human contacts to permit step-by-step evolution; and (iv) a level of herd immunity in the animal and human hosts. In this model, the evolving virus may have regularly spread out of PL0 although such invasions often fail, leaving sporadic cases of early infections. The place of the first epidemic (PL1), where humans are immunologically naïve to the virus, is likely a distance away from PL0. Finally, this current model is only a first attempt and more theoretical models can be expected to guide the search for the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 and associated factors in a medical institution in Pakistan

Objective

This study investigates the association of preventive measures with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seropositivity.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted at the Combined Military Hospital Kharian Medical College, Pakistan, in September 2020. A total of 442 participants from three different strata (faculty, students, and administration/technical staff) were enrolled using a convenient sampling technique. A rapid antibody testing method was used to detect antibodies. The Ichroma™ COVID-19 Ab test is an in vitro diagnostic device that helps in the rapid identification of COVID-19 by measuring the levels of IgG and IgM antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the blood. An automated fluorescent immunoassay system (AFIAS-6), with a clinical sensitivity of 95.8% and specificity of 96.7%, was used for qualitative analysis. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data, and data analysis was performed using SPSS version 25.

Results

In total, 442 participants were included in the study: 40 (9%) faculty members, 299 (67%) students, and 103 (23.3%) administrative/technical staff. As many as 14.9% of the participants were symptomatic; 32.4% always used masks, and 14% never wore masks. Furthermore, 69.7% of participants frequently washed their hands for 20 s, and 75.6% were aware of social distancing. A total of 16.96% of participants tested positive for IgG antibodies. Moreover, most of the administration/technical staff who tested positive for IgG were asymptomatic (68.42%). A significant association (p < 0.001) was found between following the safety guidelines (wearing masks, handwashing, and social distancing) and the occurrence of COVID-19.

Conclusion

This study showed a higher seroprevalence rate than other studies as it was conducted toward the end of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we are still far from achieving herd immunity. Furthermore, strict compliance with preventive measures is the only way to ensure safety until an effective vaccine is developed.

Regional disparity of covid-19 infections: an investigation using state-level Indian data

Using the state-level panel data for India, we establish that Covid infections are clustered in more urbanized, and prosperous states. Poverty lowers cases showing evidence of herd immunity of poor which stands in sharp contrast with the developed part of the world. Our dynamic panel regression results indicate that Covid infections are persistent across states and unlocking has aggravated the infections. We also find that richer and more urbanised states with better health infrastructure and governance perform more tests. The policy lesson from this exercise is that the authorities should monitor immunization and Covid protocols in densely populated urban areas.