Illicit cigarette trade in the cities of Pakistan: comparing findings between the consumer and waste recycle store surveys

BACKGROUND

Concerns about the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade have prevented the Government of Pakistan from increasing tobacco taxes. We estimated the proportion of illicit cigarettes sold in Pakistani cities. Moreover, we compared two methods for collecting cigarette packs and investigated if the illicit cigarette trade equates to tax evasion.

METHOD

We analysed cigarette packs collected from 10 cities of Pakistan using two methods: consumer survey based on a two-stage random sampling strategy to recruit adult smokers and photograph their cigarette packs and waste recycle store survey to purchase used cigarette packs. Cigarettes were considered illicit if any one of the following was absent from their packs: text and pictorial health warning, underage sale prohibition warning, retail price and manufacturer's name. From the consumer survey, we also estimated the proportion of smokers who purchased loose cigarettes (illegal) and packs below the minimum retail price. Taxation officers (n=4) were consulted to assess their level of confidence in judging tax evasion using the above criteria.

RESULTS

Out of 2416 cigarette packs in the consumer survey, 454 (17.8%; 95% CI 15.4% to 20.2%) were illicit. Similarly, out of 6213 packs from waste recycle shops, 1046 (16.8%; 95% CI 15.9% to 17.7%) were illicit; the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.473). Among consumers, 29.5% bought loose cigarettes and 13.8% paid less than the minimum retail price. The taxation officers considered the manufacturer's name and retail price on cigarette packs as the most relevant criteria to detect tax evasion.

CONCLUSIONS

One in six cigarette packs consumed in Pakistan could be illicit. These figures are far less than those propagated by the tobacco industry. Collecting packs from waste recycle stores is an efficient and valid method to estimate illicit cigarette trade.

Price and income elasticity of cigarette demand in Bosnia and Herzegovina by different socioeconomic groups

BACKGROUND

Tobacco tax policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) assumes a gradual annual increase in specific excise taxes on cigarettes. However, it is insufficient to reduce significantly consumption. This paper examines effects of the increase in cigarette prices and disposable income on cigarette demand in B&H by different income consumer groups.

METHODS

Based on the Household Budget Surveys and microdata from 2007, 2011 and 2015, we employed logit model to estimate prevalence and Deaton's model to estimate intensity elasticity of cigarette demand for the sample of 21 424 households (9953 are smoking households) by different income groups. We used obtained elasticities and estimated the impact of tax increase on cigarette consumption and government revenue in three tax increase scenarios.

RESULTS

Ten per cent price increase would reduce the consumption of low-income households by 14%, as opposed to 9.9% for middle-income and 7% for high-income households. Low-income households would significantly increase the demand for cigarettes compared with high-income households if income increased. Increase in the specific excise tax by 25% would reduce cigarette consumption and increase government revenue, while the low-income group would experience a reduction in tax burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in prices have different impacts on tobacco prevalence and consumption of low-income compared with middle-income and high-income socioeconomic groups. Low-income households are most responsive to changes in prices and income. Thus, the poor in B&H would benefit from an increase in tobacco excise taxes and price.

Tobacco tax evasion in Western Balkan countries: tax evasion prevalence and evasion determinants

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Tobacco tax evasion undermines the goal of tobacco taxes as a tobacco control measure to make tobacco products less affordable, increases the health risks for those who smoke and decreases the government revenue. This paper analyses the tobacco tax evasion in six Western Balkan (WB) countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. The aim of this research is to estimate the size of the illicit market and identify the main determinants of tax evasion activities in the Southeastern European region.

DATA AND METHODS

Data from 2019 Survey on Tobacco Consumption in Southeastern Europe (STC-SEE) are used. STC-SEE provides uniquely comparable nationally representative data on smoking behaviour for adult (18-85 years old) population for each country. Tax evasion is defined on the basis of available information on tax stamps, health warnings, price and the place of purchase, in accordance with the previous research on tax evasion. In order to estimate the determinants of illicit purchases we use binary choice model of tax evasion.

RESULTS

The study finds that 20.4% of all current smokers in WB countries evade taxes on tobacco products, with evasion being much more frequent for hand-rolled (HR) tobacco (86.7%) than for the manufactured cigarettes (MC) (8.6%). While HR is predominantly illicit in all six countries, MC evasion varies significantly, with evasion being significantly higher in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results further suggest that tax evasion is higher in the statistical regions where institutional capacities to tackle illicit trade are lower, in municipalities bordering countries with high MC evasion, as well as among smokers with low income, women and elderly. We also provide evidence that higher tobacco taxes and prices do not increase illicit consumption.

CONCLUSION

The findings from the research suggest that in order to decrease tax evasion, governments should put additional effort to strengthen institutional capacities to tackle illicit tobacco markets. Furthermore, improving regional coordination in development and implementation of tobacco control policies, including the prevention of illicit market, is essential in lowering evasion in all WB countries. Finally, WB countries should regulate and enforce excise tax stamp requirements on the HR tobacco market to a much higher degree.

Tobacco industry in Mexico: a general equilibrium analysis

OBJECTIVE

Effects of tobacco taxation on employment in Mexico are measured by using an applied general equilibrium model.

METHODS

The study describes the modelling methodology based on a 2013 social accounting matrix for Mexico, built for analysing the impact of tobacco taxation on employment. Unemployment is treated as an endogenous variable.

RESULTS

Setting the specific component of the Excise Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) at 1.50 pesos per cigarette would lead to the loss of tobacco-related jobs constituting just 0.1% of all jobs nationally. Revenue from IEPS on tobacco would increase by 49%, while consumption would fall by 26%. This minimal loss of employment can be compensated for if the government invests revenue from IEPS on tobacco in some specific sectors. We show this for the case of the health sector. Far from just reducing cigarette consumption, this tax reform would also create 33 781 jobs with a net gain of 32 285 across different sectors of the economy while only reducing 727 jobs in the tobacco industry in the whole country.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest the existence of a good margin for increasing tobacco tax beyond the 2020 update of 0.49 pesos per stick. In addition, from a public health point of view, if tobacco tax revenue were allocated as a direct healthcare subsidy this would deliver a double dividend by further discouraging consumption and increasing tobacco tax revenue by almost 50%, with little impact on key macroeconomic variables in Mexico, which could be offset in more dynamic sectors while promoting health, employment and development.

Extended cost-benefit analysis of tobacco taxation in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Brazil has experienced a persistent and substantial reduction in the prevalence of smoking in the population since 2006 due to increased taxes on tobacco and other tobacco control policies. Despite the effectiveness of these measures, however, the socioeconomic costs of smoking are still very high. Tobacco taxation in Brazil plays an important role among the measures adopted to curb tobacco use.

METHODS

The study combines data from the National Household Sample Survey of 2008 and the National Health Survey of 2013 and applies cross-section, pooled, and probit estimations, to estimate price elasticities of tobacco consumption by distinct population cohorts. The paper presents a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis resulting from a one-time tax increase on manufactured cigarettes using estimated conditional price elasticity of cigarette consumption and probability of smoking by income and age quartiles.

FINDINGS

Each 10% price increase (BRL 0.54), due to higher tobacco taxes, reduces cigarette consumption by about 5%, and for poor smokers, it would lead to net income gains by about BRL 39.00 per month (in 2019 values). The highest net income effects were observed for the younger, aged between 15 and 29 years, and for middle-aged individuals, between 40 and 59 years old. Higher tobacco taxes lead to lower medical expenses on tobacco-related diseases and a longer, healthier and more productive life. Most importantly, this policy is progressive, as its economic effects are stronger for the poorer than for the richer according to the income quartiles.

CONCLUSIONS

A tax increase that rises cigarette prices generates significant social benefits by reducing tobacco spending and medical expenses on tobacco-related diseases and raising future years of life and net income. The total benefits for the individual and the society go way beyond the public finance improvement.

Do tax policies discriminate against female traders? A gender framework to study informal marketplaces in Nigeria

Scholars have long debated formalizing the informal sector through taxation, but how do these processes affect gender inequalities? Our study in Nigerian markets contributes a gender framework to the equitable taxation literature on formalization. The study draws on a survey of 451 traders in 12 markets, key informant interviews, and ethnographic research in four markets of two states. We find that in at least two situations taxation policies discriminated against women implicitly: (1) male tax collectors had higher incidences of harassment on all traders and (2) taxing traders with flat taxes penalized women, as they earned less than men but were taxed the same.

Differential price responses for tobacco consumption: implications for tax incidence

Increasing tobacco taxes is considered the most effective an cost-effective policy to reduce tobacco consumption. However, a common objection to tobacco taxes is that they tend to rely disproportionately on the poorest individuals since less affluent smokers incur proportionately greater expenditures on cigarettes compared with more affluent smokers. Such objections usually assume that all smokers throughout the income distribution react similarly to an increase in tobacco prices. But, if less affluent smokers are more sensitive to price changes (ie, they have a higher demand price elasticity), reductions in tobacco consumption should be higher at the bottom of the income distribution. This paper uses data from Argentina's Household Expenditure Survey to estimate demand price elasticities for tobacco by income and age groups. Results indicate that less affluent smokers present higher demand price elasticities for cigarettes than more affluent ones. A 10% increase in cigarette prices would decrease consumption by 8.5% (4.4%) for the poorest (richest) smokers. In addition, young people are the most elastic group. These differential elasticities have relevant implications in terms of the distributional incidence of increasing tobacco taxes. As less well-off individuals reduce consumption relatively more, they bear a relatively lower tax burden. Thus, tobacco tax increases may not be regressive as is often believed. As a whole, this paper provides policymakers with relevant arguments for policy discussion and the public debate on common objections to increasing tobacco taxes.

Brand-switching and tobacco taxation in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

The government of Vietnam is embarking on a radical tobacco excise tax reform, switching from the current pure ad valorem scheme to a mixed system by adding a specific component. There have been concerns raised by state-owned tobacco companies against this initiative that switching to a mixed scheme may shift consumption away from cheaper, domestic brands to more expensive, foreign brands (produced locally by joint ventures between multinational tobacco companies and domestic firms) and to illicit cigarettes, thus impairing the domestic industry, rather than reducing cigarette consumption effectively. Unfortunately, although this concern has been one of the biggest obstacles to the tobacco tax reform in the country, no study thus far has attempted to address it due mostly to the unavailability of relevant micro-market data with detailed information on brand choice.

OBJECTIVES

This research attempts to study cigarette brand substitution patterns and quantify the potential effect of the proposed tax structure change on cigarette brand choice to inform tax policy discussions in Vietnam.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment is conducted to collect data on smokers' stated brand choice when cigarette prices change exogenously. Combined with data on their current cigarette consumption, random parameter logit models were estimated and then used to calculate brand-level price semielasticities as well as numerically simulate the impact of tax reforms on smoking.

RESULTS

Smokers are more likely to substitute a low-priced domestic brand with another domestic brand than either with a foreign brand or with an illicit brand, both of which are more expensive. Furthermore, the opt-out is one of the closest substitutes to low-priced brands and also the most sensitive to a change in their prices, implying that smokers of low-priced brands are more likely to buy none of the studied brands when cigarette prices increase. This provides strong suggestive evidence that they appear more likely to stop smoking when faced with higher cigarette prices. Imposing a specific tax tends to reduce the market share for both low-priced and high-priced licit brands, although the estimated market share reduction is larger for the former. In response to specific tax increases, a large share of current smokers do not intend to switch to illegal cigarette brands, but rather choose none of the experimented brands, suggesting their intention to quit. Finally, the magnitude of substitution to illicit brands tends to be negatively related to change in their prices as a result of the specific excise tax hike.

CONCLUSION

Contrary to the raised concern, smokers are more likely to substitute a domestic brand with another domestic brand than with a foreign brand. Moreover, the threat of illicit trade should not be exaggerated, and there are actions that the government of Vietnam can take to mitigate the threat effectively.

How do prices of manufactured cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco affect demand for these products? Tobacco price elasticity in Western Balkan countries

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Numerous studies have indicated that tobacco taxation is one of the most important policies to reduce tobacco consumption. However, its effectiveness crucially depends on consumer responses to price increases, that is, tobacco price elasticities. This paper analyses tobacco price elasticity in six Western Balkan countries.

DATA AND METHODS

We estimate own-price and cross-price elasticities of manufactured cigarettes (MCs) and roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco by using the methodological framework of the two-part model, regional variation in prices and 2019 Survey on Tobacco Consumption in Southeastern European countries (STC-SEE). STC-SEE provides a uniquely comparable nationally representative data on smoking behaviour for adult (18-85 years old) population for each country.

RESULTS

Results suggest that higher prices of MCs are associated with lower prevalence of MC use, while higher prices of RYO are associated with lower intensity of RYO use. Furthermore, regions with higher MC prices have a higher likelihood of using RYO over MC, suggesting that RYO is used as a cheaper alternative to MC. Lastly, lower smoking prevalence and intensity are associated with more smoking restrictions and support for tobacco price increases.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that, aiming to decrease smoking prevalence and intensity, governments should increase excises on all tobacco products. Since RYO is a cheaper alternative to MC, the increase of excises on RYO should be higher, so that after excise increase, the prices of the two products are approximately the same. To further reduce tobacco consumption, governments should combine increasing taxes on tobacco products with non-price measures, such as stricter smoking restrictions and smoke-free regulations.

Regional implications of the tobacco value chain in Paraguay

BACKGROUND

Paraguay is a major supplier of illicit cigarettes for the Latin American region and beyond. In July 2022, Paraguay ratified the FCTC Protocol. This is an opportunity and a challenge for neighboring countries to implement coordinated actions. This is the first analysis of the foreign trade data for cigarettes and their inputs using Paraguayan data to contextualise the illicit trade problem in Latin America and globally.

METHODS

Combining publicly available Paraguayan databases, this research constructs a database to analyse imported cigarette inputs, particularly by identifying the companies and their national origins.

RESULTS

A complex multinational supply chain perpetuates a flow of inputs into Paraguay that contributes to the production and export of illicit tobacco products. Brazil is a relevant legal supplier of intermediate goods for the Paraguayan tobacco industry yet is not a significant destination of the legal exports of cigarettes produced in Paraguay. Yet, Paraguayan cigarettes are widely available in the Brazilian market, almost all of them illicit. Trade data also show the role of other countries in the region as major cigarette input exporters to Paraguay. Evidence also supports that high volumes of legal exports from Paraguay to third countries (including Bolivia, Suriname, Aruba and Curacao) may be fuelling illicit trade through triangulation to other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The oversupply-that is, more supply than necessary for domestic consumption and legal exports-of cigarette inputs likely divert illegally back to the countries exporting these inputs and others. Thus, the responsibility for illicit trade in cigarettes falls not only on Paraguayan companies but also on companies exporting inputs to Paraguay to producing these illicit goods. Furthermore, Paraguay is not only exporting illicitly directly to Brazil and Argentina, but also appears to oversupply other countries in South America and the Caribbean that cannot legally absorb this trade through domestic consumption and/or legal re-export.

Income and cigarette price responsiveness: evidence from Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Vietnam has an ad valorem tobacco excise structure, with the tax base being factory gate price, making the excise susceptible to tax avoidance and less effective in reducing tobacco use. To address these issues, therefore, the government has considered switching to a mixed system in which a specific rate would be imposed on every cigarette pack in addition to the existing ad valorem rate. However, little is known about how smokers with different incomes respond to price increases in Vietnam, raising the concern of regressivity of the tax reform.

OBJECTIVES

This paper aims to provide timely and more updated evidence to support policy discussion on tobacco excise tax reform.

METHODS

The study relies on the smokers' stated preferences, which are elicited from the Tobacco Consumption Survey in Vietnam in 2017-2018. We use data on actual purchases and the stated maximum prices that smokers are willing to pay for their cigarette brands to calculate conditional price elasticity at the individual level. Regression analysis then is used to quantify the extent to which income and other socioeconomic characteristics shape the smokers' price sensitivity.

RESULTS

Both the individual incomes and household incomes have negative and significant effects on the price elasticity of conditional demand for cigarettes. This effect is particularly strong after taking the product heterogeneity into account by considering only the most popular brand, but becomes smaller when looking at a more heterogeneous market by excluding that brand from the original sample. The magnitude of the impact of income adjusted for cigarette price is much higher than unadjusted income. The implication is that with sufficiently large variation in price across cigarette brands, which are often the case for countries with ad valorem tobacco excise tax structures, the low-income smokers may not be more sensitive to cigarette price than the high-income smokers so that a uniform percentage increase does not necessarily result in larger consumption fall for the low-income smokers. Narrowing the price gaps between cigarette brands by adding a specific tax component can help address this issue.

CONCLUSION

Raising tobacco tax can make the tax policy more progressive and benefit the poor more than the rich in Vietnam. Thus, the Government of Vietnam should switch from the current, purely ad valorem excise tax structure to the mixed system to reduce price variation and make the tobacco tax more progressive.

Illicit trade in tobacco products: recent trends and coming challenges

BACKGROUND

Illicit trade in tobacco products is a menace to the goal of eliminating tobacco consumption. Although tax policy is very effective in reducing consumption, illicit trade can reduce (though not eliminate) its effectiveness.

METHODS

This article discusses the recent evolution of illicit trade and the context in which it occurred; the new methods that have been developed to measure it and, finally, the challenges in the next phase in the control of illicit trade.

RESULTS

There has been a remarkable stability in the penetration of cigarette illicit trade in the past decade. Such a stability, however, occurred in a world of shrinking tobacco consumption, implying a decreasing absolute illicit trade. Most countries have progressed in increasing tobacco taxes and changing tax structures. Prices of illicit cigarettes follow legal cigarette prices. Concomitantly, many new studies, independent from the tobacco industry, have been conducted allowing for better understanding of the illicit trade and providing inputs to its solution. The entry into force of the WHO FCTC Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products provides both a global and a national policy framework to further curb illicit trade. Instruments such as track-and-trace systems must be promoted and adopted to maximise reductions in illicit trade.

CONCLUSIONS

Global efforts to curb the illicit trade in tobacco products are gaining momentum and progress has been made in many parts of the world. The next decade can witness a decisive decrease in tobacco consumption, both licit and illicit, if countries further engage in international collaboration.

Addressing lower-priced cigarette products through three-pronged comprehensive regulation on excise taxes, minimum price policies and restrictions on price promotions

The prices that smokers pay out-of-pocket for their tobacco products ultimately influence their smoking behaviour. Although cigarette excise taxes are arguably the best and most used policy to increase cigarette prices, taxes are only one component of retail cigarette prices. The persistence of lower-priced products, disproportionately purchased by lower-income smokers, in jurisdictions with high excise taxes is an Achilles heel for tobacco tax policy. When governments raise excise taxes, the tobacco industry responds. The industry reduces tax pass-through to minimise the price increases for lower-priced brands and offers price discounts to retailers and coupons to consumers. In addition, smokers who do not quit after tax increases may downshift brands, purchase in bulk or substitute lower-priced tobacco product types. This may be particularly true for price-sensitive smokers, including those with lower incomes. We propose that raising excise taxes will be more effective in reducing the persistence of lower-priced products and income-based smoking disparities when taxes are designed to raise prices frequently and substantially for all products and are combined with (a) minimum price laws and (b) bans on coupons, discounts and other promotions. In combination, these three complementary policies restrict the tobacco industry's ability to undermine the impact of higher excise taxes upon consumer prices. Very few jurisdictions have implemented comprehensive three-pronged tobacco price regulation, but doing so would likely address many of the limitations that come with a sole focus on raising excise taxes.

Where to next for countries with high tobacco taxes? The potential for greater control of tobacco pricing through licensing regulation

Optimising the taxation of tobacco products should be among the highest priorities for health and hence economic policy in every country. The WHO Technical Manual on Tobacco Tax Policy and Administration released in April 2021 provides invaluable advice, including 26 best practice recommendations on policy design, administrative efficiency and addressing industry tactics to circumvent tobacco tax increases. Introducing and increasing tobacco taxes is the most important tobacco control measure for any jurisdiction. The effects of simple tax structures, high tax levels, and frequent above-inflation increases in specific excise duties can be enhanced through strict controls on packaging (including pack size), product design, and discounting. However, even with such measures, tobacco companies can continue to undermine the effectiveness of tax policy by offering some products in their ranges at very low prices, as well as gradually and selectively increasing the prices of some but not all products after tax increases. This paper is aimed at policymakers in countries that have already adopted best practice tax policy. It explores the idea of wholesale price capping combined with retail licensing to address the problems of brand proliferation, dispersion of prices, cushioning and strategic under/overshifting of tax increases, thereby radically and sustainably increasing the effectiveness of tobacco tax policy while also raising additional tax revenue for governments by reducing industry profitability.

Alcohol taxation, alcohol consumption and cancers in Lithuania: A case study

Aims

The aim of this contribution was to estimate the impact of the last significant alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania in 2017 on alcohol consumption, incident cancer cases, and cancer mortality, as well as the number of cancer outcomes that could have potentially been averted in 2018 had larger increases in alcohol excise taxation been applied.

Design

Statistical modelling was used to estimate the change in alcohol per capita consumption following the tax increase, and alcohol-attributable fraction methodology was then used to estimate the associated cancer incidence and mortality. Potential increases of current excise duties were modelled in two steps. First, beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were used to predict the associated decreases in consumption and cancer outcomes, and second, the outcomes arising from the actual numbers and the modelled numbers were compared.

Method

Data were taken from the following sources: alcohol consumption data from Statistics Lithuania and the WHO, cancer data from the International Agency of Research on Cancer, and risk relations and elasticities of demand from published meta-analyses.

Results

A total of 15,857 new cancer cases (8,031 in women and 7,826 in men) and 8,534 cancer deaths (3,757 in women and 4,777 in men) were recorded in Lithuania in 2018. Using the attributable fraction methodology, we estimate that 4.8% of 761 of these new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol use (284 in women; 477 in men), as well as 5.5% or 466 cancer deaths (115 in women; 351 in men). With the taxation increase of 2017, 45 new cases and 24 deaths will be averted over the next 10 years. Further taxation increases of 100% could double the number of new cancer cases averted or saved.

Conclusion

In a high-consumption European country like Lithuania, alcohol use is an important and avoidable risk factor for cancer. Taxation is an important measure to reduce the alcohol-attributable cancer burden.

Webs of reciprocity: Colonial taxation and the need for reparations

My BJS lecture considered how dominant understandings of distributive justice and welfare have been conceptualised through the "nation" and argued that a more adequate framing requires them to be addressed also in the context of colonial and imperial relations. It argues that a just politics in the present has to account for this history and that one way of doing this effectively would be through a reparative frame. In this short response, I engage with the commentaries on my lecture.

The nutrition transition to a stage of high obesity and noncommunicable disease prevalence dominated by ultra-processed foods is not inevitable

The Nutrition Transition model is presented with the nature and pace of change in key stages varying by location and subpopulations. At present, all high-income and many low- and middle-income countries are in a stage of the transition where nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases including obesity, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension are dominating adult morbidity and mortality and are very high or growing rapidly in prevalence. Some countries still have key subpopulations facing hunger and undernutrition defined by stunting or extreme thinness among adults. We call these double burden of malnutrition countries. All low- and middle-income countries face rapid growth in consumption of ultra-processed food and beverages, but it is not inevitable that these countries will reach the same high levels of consumption seen in high-income countries, with all the negative impacts of this diet on health. With great political and civil society commitment to adoption of policies shown in other countries to have improved dietary choices and social norms around foods, we can arrest and even reverse the rapid shift to diets dominated by a stage of high ultra-processed food intake and increasing prevalence of nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases.

Relations of extraction, relations of redistribution: Empire, nation, and the construction of the British welfare state

The consolidation of the British welfare state in the mid-twentieth century did not only coincide with the systematic dismantling of the British Empire but was significantly shaped by the empire that preceded it. The story that tends to be told about the welfare state, however, situates it firmly within the national context. Such understandings go on to shape contemporary political debates centered on questions of entitlement and concerns over legitimacy. In this article, I reassess the standard accounts of taxation and welfare that are claimed to be central to the construction of the nation to demonstrate how taking the empire into account offers the possibility of a different political response to the challenges we are faced with today.

Standardising the measurement of e-cigarette taxes in the USA, 2010-2020

INTRODUCTION

E-cigarette taxes have been enacted by 30 states through April 2020. E-cigarette tax schemas vary, in contrast to cigarette taxes in the USA that are levied almost exclusively as excise taxes per pack. Some states use excise taxes on liquid and containers, others ad valorem taxes on wholesale prices and others sales taxes. It is therefore difficult to understand the relative magnitudes of these e-cigarette taxes and the overall e-cigarette tax size relative to the cigarette tax size.

OBJECTIVE

To create and publish a database of state and local quarterly e-cigarette taxes from 2010 to 2020, standardised as the rate per millilitre of fluid.

METHODS

Using Universal Product Code-level e-cigarette sales from the NielsenIQ Retail Scanner Data along with e-cigarette product characteristics collected from internet searches and visits to e-cigarette retailers, we develop a method to standardise e-cigarette taxes as an equivalent average excise tax rate measured per millilitre of fluid.

RESULTS

In 2020, the average American resided in a location with $3.08 in cigarette taxes and $0.34 in e-cigarette taxes (assuming 1 pack=0.7 fluid mL).

CONCLUSIONS

The public availability of this state and local standardised e-cigarette tax data will allow tobacco control researchers to study the relationship between e-cigarette taxes and tobacco and related outcomes more effectively.

The EVALI outbreak and tobacco sales in the USA, 2014-2020

BACKGROUND

The E-cigarette, or Vaping Product-Use Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) Outbreak of 2019 hospitalised thousands and killed dozens of people in the USA and raised perceptions of the dangers posed to health by electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). These illnesses along with continued increases in youth vaping rates lead to the passage of many state and federal laws intended to curtail the sale of flavoured e-cigarettes. Little is known about the impact of these events on US e-cigarette and cigarette retail sales.

METHODS

Using Nielsen Scantrack sales data from January 2014 to January 2020 for 23 US states, we evaluate the effect of the EVALI outbreak. First-differenced state-panel regressions tracking unit sales of total-level and category-level e-cigarettes and cigarette sales controlling for price, Tobacco 21 policy coverage, product distribution, seasonality, EVALI-attributable deaths, and state-level e-cigarette policies affecting the availability of e-cigarettes (non-tobacco flavoured and total) were employed.

RESULTS

Dollar sales of e-cigarettes declined 29% from their pre-EVALI peak by January 2020. Total sales of e-cigarettes declined in response to EVALI deaths and the total e-cigarette sales ban put in place in Massachusetts adopted in its wake. Cigarette sales were largely unchanged by either the direct or indirect policy effects of the EVALI outbreak, except for in Massachusetts, where cigarette sales-particularly those smoked by young people-rose temporarily after a total ban on e-cigarette sales.

CONCLUSION

Sales of e-cigarettes declined in response to the EVALI outbreak and from the most restrictive regulatory policies that were adopted in response, while sales of cigarettes were affected less.

Impact of tobacco price and taxation on affordability and consumption of tobacco products in the South-East Asia Region: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The objective of the review was to study the impact of tobacco taxes or prices on affordability and/or consumption of tobacco products in WHO South-East Asia Region (SEAR) countries, overall and by socioeconomic status; and change in consumption of one tobacco product for a given change in price/tax on another tobacco product.

METHODS

The searches were made in five databases (Medline, Embase, Cinahl, EconLit, Tobacconomics) using keywords such as 'tobacco', 'tax', 'price', 'impact' with their synonyms. Additionally, the first 100 articles through google search and e-reports from targeted sources were also reviewed. Studies illustrating the impact of prices/taxes on consumption/affordability of tobacco products in SEAR, in English and with no limitation on year, were included in the review. After two steps of screening, data from 28 studies were extracted using a structured and pre-tested data extraction form.

RESULTS

Of the 28 studies, 12 studies reported an inverse association between price and consumption/affordability, while 11 studies reported no or positive association between price and consumption/affordability of tobacco products. Five studies had unclear interpretations. The majority of studies estimated that the less affluent group were more price responsive compared to the more affluent group. Some studies indicated increased consumption of one product in response to price rise of another product, although, the findings were inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our review support the use of tobacco tax and price measures as effective tools to address the tobacco epidemic. Our findings, however, also emphasize the importance of increasing tobacco product taxes and prices sufficiently to outweigh the effects of income growth, in order for the measures to be effective in reducing the affordability and consumption of tobacco products.

Taxing the rich: public preferences and public understanding

Who supports high taxes on the rich? Existing accounts of public attitudes focus on egalitarian values and material interests, but make little mention of the ideas people hold about how the economy works descriptively. Drawing on the distinction between positive- and zero-sum beliefs about the economy, and original survey data from five countries, I show that there are systematic differences in tax progressivity preferences across groups within the public who think differently about the economy. Positive-sum thinking is associated with less progressive preferences. However, despite theoretical attention, there is no evidence of systematic zero-sum thinking among the public. On the other hand, some descriptions focus on conflict between rich and poor, and these do predict support for greater progressivity. Further analysis is required to differentiate alternative causal explanations of the patterns observed, but different modes of descriptive economic thinking are an important feature of the mass politics of progressivity.