Social Vulnerability Index and Survivorship after Colorectal Cancer Resection

BACKGROUND

Race and socioeconomic status incompletely identify patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) at the highest risk for screening, treatment, and mortality disparities. Social vulnerability index (SVI) was designed to delineate neighborhoods requiring greater support after external health stressors, summarizing socioeconomic, household, and transportation barriers by census tract. SVI is implicated in lower cancer center use and increased complications after colectomy, but its influence on long-term prognosis is unknown. Herein, we characterized relationships between SVI and CRC survival.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients undergoing resection of stage I to IV CRC from January 2010 to May 2023 within an academic health system were identified. Clinicopathologic characteristics were abstracted using institutional National Cancer Database and NSQIP. Addresses from electronic health records were geocoded to SVI. Overall survival and cancer-specific survival were compared using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods.

RESULTS

A total of 872 patients were identified, comprising 573 (66%) patients with colon tumor and 299 (34%) with rectal tumor. Patients in the top SVI quartile (32%) were more likely to be Black (41% vs 13%, p < 0.001), carry less private insurance (39% vs 48%, p = 0.02), and experience greater comorbidity (American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status III: 86% vs 71%, p < 0.001), without significant differences by acuity, stage, or CRC therapy. In multivariable analysis, high SVI remained associated with higher all-cause (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.96, p < 0.01) and cancer-specific survival mortality (hazard ratio 1.71, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.67, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

High SVI was independently associated with poorer prognosis after CRC resection beyond the perioperative period. Acknowledging needs for multi-institutional evaluation and elaborating causal mechanisms, neighborhood-level vulnerability may inform targeted outreach in CRC care.

Local Therapy Improves Survival for Early Recurrence After Resection of Colorectal Liver Metastases

BACKGROUND

Early recurrence following hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases (CLM) is associated with worse survival; yet, impact of further local therapy is unclear. We sought to evaluate whether local therapy benefits patients with early recurrence following hepatectomy for CLM.

METHODS

Clinicopathologic and survival outcomes of patients managed with hepatectomy for CLM (1/2001-12/2020) were queried from a prospectively maintained database. Timing of recurrence was stratified as early (recurrence-free survival [RFS] < 6 months), intermediate (RFS 6-12 months), and later (RFS > 12 months). Local therapy was defined as ablation, resection, or radiation.

RESULTS

Of 671 patients, 541 (81%) recurred with 189 (28%) early, 180 (27%) intermediate, and 172 (26%) later recurrences. Local therapy for recurrence resulted in improved survival, regardless of recurrence timing (early 78 vs. 32 months, intermediate 72 vs. 39 months, later 132 vs. 65 months, all p < 0.001). Following recurrence, treatment with local therapy (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.24), liver and extrahepatic recurrence (HR = 1.81), RAS + TP53 co-mutation (HR = 1.52), and SMAD4 mutation (HR = 1.92) were independently associated with overall survival (all p ≤ 0.002). Among patients with recurrence treated by local therapy, patients older than 65 years (HR 1.79), liver and extrahepatic recurrence (HR 2.05), primary site or other recurrence (HR 1.90), RAS-TP53 co-mutation (HR 1.63), and SMAD4 mutation (HR 2.06) had shorter post-local therapy survival (all p ≤ 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

While most patients recur after hepatectomy for CLM, local therapy may result in long-term survival despite early recurrence. Somatic mutational profiling may help to guide the multidisciplinary consideration of local therapy after recurrence.

Preoperative low skeletal muscle volume can result in insufficient administration of S-1 adjuvant chemotherapy in older patients with stage II/III gastric cancer

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Older patients are more likely to encounter difficulties receiving chemotherapy, but the factors involved in the continuation of chemotherapy in these patients remain unclear. We investigated the importance of muscle mass as a factor involved in delivering a sufficient dose of postoperative S-1 adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) to older patients with gastric cancer.

METHODS

The subjects of this study were 79 patients aged ≥ 65 years with stage II/III gastric adenocarcinoma, who underwent curative gastrectomy and received S-1 ACT.

RESULTS

The overall median relative dose intensity (RDI) was 75.0% (18.8-93.5%). Patients were divided into two groups for receiver operating characteristic analysis according to the cutoff value. Significantly more patients in the high skeletal muscle index (SMI) group achieved > 62% RDI of S-1 ACT (p = 0.03). Conversely, more patients in the low SMI group suffered from S-1-induced nausea (p = 0.03) and discontinued chemotherapy because of adverse events (p = 0.02). Multivariate analysis identified low SMI as an independent factor for insufficient S-1 dose delivery (p = 0.03, hazard ratio = 2.87).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative SMI is an indicator of the low-dose intensity of S-1 ACT in older patients following curative gastrectomy.

Bias of the additive hazard model in the presence of causal effect heterogeneity

Hazard ratios are prone to selection bias, compromising their use as causal estimands. On the other hand, if Aalen's additive hazard model applies, the hazard difference has been shown to remain unaffected by the selection of frailty factors over time. Then, in the absence of confounding, observed hazard differences are equal in expectation to the causal hazard differences. However, in the presence of effect (on the hazard) heterogeneity, the observed hazard difference is also affected by selection of survivors. In this work, we formalize how the observed hazard difference (from a randomized controlled trial) evolves by selecting favourable levels of effect modifiers in the exposed group and thus deviates from the causal effect of interest. Such selection may result in a non-linear integrated hazard difference curve even when the individual causal effects are time-invariant. Therefore, a homogeneous time-varying causal additive effect on the hazard cannot be distinguished from a time-invariant but heterogeneous causal effect. We illustrate this causal issue by studying the effect of chemotherapy on the survival time of patients suffering from carcinoma of the oropharynx using data from a clinical trial. The hazard difference can thus not be used as an appropriate measure of the causal effect without making untestable assumptions.

Expression of IZUMO2 in colorectal cancer in association with clinicopathological features

IZUMO2 belongs to the testis-expressed IZUMO family of proteins, which are characterized by an N-terminal IZUMO domain. Based on integrated analysis of expression profiles and matched DNA methylation data from a public database, IZUMO2 represents a prognosis-related methylation-driven gene in colorectal cancer. However, it remains unclear whether IZUMO2 protein expression is suppressed or overexpressed in colorectal cancer cells. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the expression of the IZUMO2 protein in colorectal cancer, with a focus on the clinicopathological features. Sixty-four colorectal cancer tissue specimens were immunohistochemically stained using specific antibodies against IZUMO2. IZUMO2 immunoreactivity was detected at the invasion front in 30 of the 64 colorectal cancer samples. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with IZUMO2 immunoreactivity had a relatively shorter overall and progression-free survival (log-rank test, P = 0.046 and 0.019, respectively). IZUMO2 immunoreactivity served as an independent factor predictive of poor progression-free survival in colorectal cancer (P = 0.025) as determined via the Cox proportional hazard regression model. Moreover, IZUMO2 immunoreactivity represented an independent factor for poor overall survival (P = 0.035) and progression-free survival (P = 0.013) in patients with colon cancer. The present findings suggest that IZUMO2 is expressed in many colorectal cancers, especially at the cancer invasion front, and may represent an indicator of poor prognosis in colorectal cancer.

Simultaneous inference procedures for the comparison of multiple characteristics of two survival functions

Survival time is the primary endpoint of many randomized controlled trials, and a treatment effect is typically quantified by the hazard ratio under the assumption of proportional hazards. Awareness is increasing that in many settings this assumption is a priori violated, for example, due to delayed onset of drug effect. In these cases, interpretation of the hazard ratio estimate is ambiguous and statistical inference for alternative parameters to quantify a treatment effect is warranted. We consider differences or ratios of milestone survival probabilities or quantiles, differences in restricted mean survival times, and an average hazard ratio to be of interest. Typically, more than one such parameter needs to be reported to assess possible treatment benefits, and in confirmatory trials, the according inferential procedures need to be adjusted for multiplicity. A simple Bonferroni adjustment may be too conservative because the different parameters of interest typically show considerable correlation. Hence simultaneous inference procedures that take into account the correlation are warranted. By using the counting process representation of the mentioned parameters, we show that their estimates are asymptotically multivariate normal and we provide an estimate for their covariance matrix. We propose according to the parametric multiple testing procedures and simultaneous confidence intervals. Also, the logrank test may be included in the framework. Finite sample type I error rate and power are studied by simulation. The methods are illustrated with an example from oncology. A software implementation is provided in the R package nph.

Identification of novel molecular subtypes to improve the classification framework of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treatment is largely based on a 'one-drug-fits-all' strategy in patients with similar pathological characteristics. However, given its biological heterogeneity, patients at the same clinical stage or similar therapies exhibit significant clinical differences. Thus, novel molecular subgroups based on these characteristics may better therapeutic outcomes.

METHODS

Herein, 192 treatment-naïve NPC samples with corresponding clinicopathological information were obtained from Fujian Cancer Hospital between January 2015 and January 2018. The gene expression profiles of the samples were obtained by RNA sequencing. Molecular subtypes were identified by consensus clustering. External NPC cohorts were used as the validation sets.

RESULTS

Patients with NPC were classified into immune, metabolic, and proliferative molecular subtypes with distinct clinical features. Additionally, this classification was repeatable and predictable as validated by the external NPC cohorts. Metabolomics has shown that arachidonic acid metabolites were associated with NPC malignancy. We also identified several key genes in each subtype using a weighted correlation network analysis. Furthermore, a prognostic risk model based on these key genes was developed and was significantly associated with disease-free survival (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.16; P < 0.0001), which was further validated by an external NPC cohort (hazard ratio, 7.71; 95% CI, 1.39-42.73; P < 0.0001). Moreover, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year areas under the curve were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.94), 0.81 (95% CI, 0.73-0.89), and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.73-0.90), respectively, demonstrating a high predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, we defined a novel classification of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (immune, metabolism, and proliferation subtypes). Among these subtypes, metabolism and proliferation subtypes were associated with advanced stage and poor prognosis of NPC patients, whereas the immune subtype was linked to early stage and favorable prognosis.

Sex-dependent associations of plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and mortality risk in healthy older men and women: two prospective cohort studies

The relationship between high plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and cause and mortality are not well established in healthy older people. This study examined the associations between HDL-C levels and mortality in initially healthy older men and women. This analysis included participants from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE; n=18,668) trial and a matched cohort from the UK Biobank (UKB; n=62,849 ≥65 years). Cox regression was used to examine hazard ratios between HDL-C categories <1.03 mmol/L, 1.03-1.55 mmol/L (referent category), 1.55-2.07 mmol/L, and >2.07 mmol/L and all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and "non-cancer non-CVD" mortality. Genetic contributions were assessed using a polygenic score for HDL-C. Among ASPREE participants (aged 75±5 years), 1836 deaths occurred over a mean follow-up of 6.3±1.8 years. In men, the highest category of HDL-C levels was associated with increased risk of all-cause (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.26-2.03), cancer (HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.96-2.00), and "non-cancer non-CVD" mortality (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.41-3.42) but not CVD mortality (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.60-1.94). The associations were replicated among UKB participants (aged 66.9±1.5 years), including 8739 deaths over a mean follow-up of 12.7±0.8 years. There was a non-linear association between HDL-C levels and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The association between HDL-C levels and mortality was unrelated to variations in the HDL-C polygenic score. No significant association was found between HDL-C levels and mortality in women. Higher HDL-C levels are associated with increased risk from cancer and "non-cancer non-CVD" mortality in healthy older men but no such relationship was observed in women.

A Comparison of High and Usual Protein Dosing in Critically Ill Patients With Obesity: A Post Hoc Analysis of an International, Pragmatic, Single-Blinded, Randomized Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVES

Across guidelines, protein dosing for critically ill patients with obesity varies considerably. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate whether this population would benefit from higher doses of protein.

DESIGN

A post hoc subgroup analysis of the effect of higher protein dosing in critically ill patients with high nutritional risk (EFFORT Protein): an international, multicenter, pragmatic, registry-based randomized trial.

SETTING

Eighty-five adult ICUs across 16 countries.

PATIENTS

Patients with obesity defined as a body mass index (BMI) greater than or equal to 30 kg/m 2 ( n = 425).

INTERVENTIONS

In the primary study, patients were randomized into a high-dose (≥ 2.2 g/kg/d) or usual-dose protein group (≤ 1.2 g/kg/d).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Protein intake was monitored for up to 28 days, and outcomes (time to discharge alive [TTDA], 60-d mortality, days of mechanical ventilation [MV], hospital, and ICU length of stay [LOS]) were recorded until 60 days post-randomization. Of the 1301 patients in the primary study, 425 had a BMI greater than or equal to 30 kg/m 2 . After adjusting for sites and covariates, we observed a nonsignificant slower rate of TTDA with higher protein that ruled out a clinically important benefit (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.58-1.05; p = 0.10). We found no evidence of difference in TTDA between protein groups when subgroups with different classes of obesity or patients with and without various nutritional and frailty risk variables were examined, even after the removal of patients with baseline acute kidney injury. Overall, 60-day mortality rates were 31.5% and 28.2% in the high protein and usual protein groups, respectively (risk difference, 3.3%; 95% CI, -5.4 to 12.1; p = 0.46). Duration of MV and LOS in hospital and ICU were not significantly different between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill patients with obesity, higher protein doses did not improve clinical outcomes, including those with higher nutritional and frailty risk.

Development and validation of an individualized and weighted Myeloma Prognostic Score System (MPSS) in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

Current standard predictive models of disease risk do not adequately account for the heterogeneity of survival outcomes in patients with new-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). In this retrospective, multicohort study, we collected clinical and genetic data from 1792 NDMM patients and identified the prognostic impact of all features. Using the top-ranked predictive features, a weighted Myeloma Prognostic Score System (MPSS) risk model was formulated and validated to predict overall survival (OS). In the training cohort, elevated lactate dehydrogenase level (LDH), International Staging System (ISS) Stage III, thrombocytopenia, and cumulative high-risk cytogenetic aberration (HRA) numbers were found to have independent prognostic significance. Each risk factor was defined as its weighted value respectively according to their hazard ratio for OS (thrombocytopenia 2, elevated LDH 1, ISS III 2, one HRA 1, and ≥2 HRA 2, points). Patients were further stratified into four risk groups: MPSS I (22.5%, 0 points), II (17.6%, 1 points), III (38.6%, 2-3 points), and IV (21.3%, 4-7 points). MPSS risk stratification showed optimal discrimination, as well as calibration, of four risk groups with median OS of 91.0, 69.8, 45.0, and 28.0 months, for patients in MPSS I to IV groups (p < .001), respectively. Importantly, the MPSS model retained its prognostic value in the internal validation cohort and an independent external validation cohort, and exhibited significant risk distribution compared with conventional prognostic models (R-ISS, R2-ISS, and MASS). Utilization of the MPSS model in clinical practice could improve risk estimation in NDMM patients, thus prompting individualized treatment strategies.

Meta-research: How many diagnostic or prognostic models published in radiological journals are evaluated externally?

OBJECTIVES

Prognostic and diagnostic models must work in their intended clinical setting, proven via "external evaluation", preferably by authors uninvolved with model development. By systematic review, we determined the proportion of models published in high-impact radiological journals that are evaluated subsequently.

METHODS

We hand-searched three radiological journals for multivariable diagnostic/prognostic models 2013-2015 inclusive, developed using regression. We assessed completeness of data presentation to allow subsequent external evaluation. We then searched literature to August 2022 to identify external evaluations of these index models.

RESULTS

We identified 98 index studies (73 prognostic; 25 diagnostic) describing 145 models. Only 15 (15%) index studies presented an evaluation (two external). No model was updated. Only 20 (20%) studies presented a model equation. Just 7 (15%) studies developing Cox models presented a risk table, and just 4 (9%) presented the baseline hazard. Two (4%) studies developing non-Cox models presented the intercept. Just 20 (20%) articles presented a Kaplan-Meier curve of the final model. The 98 index studies attracted 4224 citations (including 559 self-citations), median 28 per study. We identified just six (6%) subsequent external evaluations of an index model, five of which were external evaluations by researchers uninvolved with model development, and from a different institution.

CONCLUSIONS

Very few prognostic or diagnostic models published in radiological literature are evaluated externally, suggesting wasted research effort and resources. Authors' published models should present data sufficient to allow external evaluation by others. To achieve clinical utility, researchers should concentrate on model evaluation and updating rather than continual redevelopment.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The large majority of prognostic and diagnostic models published in high-impact radiological journals are never evaluated. It would be more efficient for researchers to evaluate existing models rather than practice continual redevelopment.

KEY POINTS

• Systematic review of highly cited radiological literature identified few diagnostic or prognostic models that were evaluated subsequently by researchers uninvolved with the original model. • Published radiological models frequently omit important information necessary for others to perform an external evaluation: Only 20% of studies presented a model equation or nomogram. • A large proportion of research citing published models focuses on redevelopment and ignores evaluation and updating, which would be a more efficient use of research resources.

Survival after minimally invasive radical hysterectomy with protective colpotomy for early-stage cervical cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Minimally invasive surgery on treatment of early-stage cervical cancer is debatable. Traditional approaches of colpotomy are considered responsible for an inferior oncological outcome. Evidence on whether protective colpotomy could optimize minimally invasive technique and improve prognoses of women with early-stage cervical cancer remains limited. We produced a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare oncological outcomes of the patients treated by minimally invasive radical hysterectomy with protective colpotomy to those treated by open surgery according to existing literature. We explored PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to December 2022. Inclusion criteria were: (1) randomized controlled trials or observational studies published in English, (2) studies comparing minimally invasive radical hysterectomy with protective colpotomy to abdominal radical hysterectomy in early-stage cervical cancer, and (3) studies comparing survival outcomes. Two reviewers performed the screening, data extraction, and quality assessment independently. A total of 8 retrospective cohort studies with 2020 women were included in the study, 821 of whom were in the minimally invasive surgery group, and 1199 of whom were in the open surgery group. The recurrence-free survival and overall survival in the minimally invasive surgery group were both similar to that in the open surgery group (pooled hazard ratio, 0.88 and 0.78, respectively; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-1.38 and 0.42-1.44, respectively). Minimally invasive radical hysterectomy with protective colpotomy on treatment of early-stage cervical cancer had similar recurrence-free survival and overall survival compared to abdominal radical hysterectomy. Protective colpotomy could be a guaranteed approach to modifying minimally invasive technique.

The Impact of Imaging-Diagnosed Sarcopenia on Long-term Prognosis After Curative Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Recent research suggests that sarcopenia potentially influences the long-term postoperative prognosis of malignant tumors. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to investigate the impact of imaging-diagnosed sarcopenia on the long-term prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative resection.

METHODS

In our approach, all studies incorporated in this study employed Cox proportional hazards models with multivariable adjusted hazard ratios. The meta-analysis was performed using R statistical software. The primary outcomes were quantified using hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

This study analyzed 30 studies, involving 7352 HCC patients after curative resection (2695 in the sarcopenia group and 4657 in the non-sarcopenia group). The meta-analysis of 28 studies indicated that patients in the sarcopenia group demonstrated notably inferior overall survival (OS) compared with the non-sarcopenia group (HR=2.20; 95% CI, 1.88-2.58; p < 0.01). Similarly, sarcopenia exhibits a significant association with poor recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-free survival (DFS) based on 16 and 6 studies (HR=1.50; 95% CI, 1.39-1.63; p < 0.01 and HR=1.96; 95% CI, 1.83-2.10; p < 0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, imaging-diagnosed sarcopenia adversely affects the long-term prognosis, including OS, RFS, and DFS, in HCC patients after curative resection. The findings hold considerable importance in guiding comprehensive healthcare procedures for HCC patients after surgery.

Earliest total vascular damage index scores independently predict all-cause mortality in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated whether the earliest total Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) score could significantly predict all-cause mortality during follow-up in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV).

METHODS

This study included AAV patients who were first diagnosed at this hospital from 2001 to 2022. The earliest total VDI score was defined as the first VID assessed more than 3 months after AAV diagnosis in 93.5% of patients or after the first AAV presentation in 6.5% of patients. The optimal cut-off of the earliest total VDI score for all-cause mortality was obtained using the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The median age and earliest VDI score were 60.0 years (35.5% men), and 3.0. The most common damaged system in the earliest VDI was the pulmonary (55.3%) system. Among the AAV patients, 39 (13.3%) died. When the optimal cut-off of the earliest total VDI score for all-cause mortality was set at 3.0 (sensitivity 64.1%, specificity 75.2%), AAV patients with the earliest total VDI score ≥3.0 exhibited a significantly higher risk for all-cause mortality than those without (relative risk 6.090). AAV patients with the earliest total VDI score ≥3.0 exhibited a significantly lower cumulative patients' survival rate than those without. In the multivariable Cox hazards model analyses, not only the earliest total VDI score but also the earliest total VDI score ≥3.0 were independently associated with all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study was the first to demonstrate that the earliest total VDI score could predict all-cause mortality during follow-up in AAV patients.

Association of Socioeconomic Status With Worse Overall Survival in Patients With Bone and Joint Cancer

BACKGROUND

The effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on the outcomes of patients with metastatic cancer to bone has not been adequately studied. We analyzed the association between the Yost Index, a composite geocoded SES score, and overall survival among patients who underwent nonprimary surgical resection for bone metastases.

METHODS

This population-based study used data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2010 to 2018). We categorized bone and joint sites using International Classification of Disease-O-3 recodes. The Yost Index was geocoded using a factor analysis and categorized into quintiles using census tract-level American Community Service 5-year estimates and seven measures: median household income, median house value, median rent, percent below 150% of the poverty line, education index, percent working class, and percent unemployed. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios of overall survival and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

A total of 138,158 patients were included. Patients with the lowest SES had 34% higher risk of mortality compared with those with the highest SES (adjusted hazard ratio of 1.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.32 to 1.37, P < 0.001). Among patients who underwent nonprimary surgery of the distant bone tumor (n = 11,984), the age-adjusted mortality rate was 31.3% higher in the lowest SES patients compared with the highest SES patients (9.9 versus 6.8 per 100,000, P < 0.001). Patients in the lowest SES group showed more racial heterogeneity (63.0% White, 33.5% Black, 3.1% AAPI) compared with the highest SES group (83.9% White, 4.0% Black, 11.8% AAPI, P < 0.001). Higher SES patients are more likely to be married (77.5% versus 59.0%, P < 0.0001) and to live in metropolitan areas (99.6% versus 73.6%, P < 0.0001) compared with lower SES patients.

DISCUSSION

Our results may have implications for developing interventions to improve access and quality of care for patients from lower SES backgrounds, ultimately reducing disparities in orthopaedic surgery.

Combined effect of falling difficulty and cardiovascular diseases on the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in older adults: an analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

PURPOSE

Older adults with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are prone to falls. This study aimed to analyze the combined effect of falling difficulty and CVD on the risk of all-cause- and CVD mortality in older adults.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, people aged ≥60 years with information on falling difficulty and CVD from the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were selected. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the associations of falling difficulty and CVD with all-cause- and CVD mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1409 participants were included, of whom 868 (58.1%) participants died, and 237 (15.0%) died of CVD. The mean age of participants was 72.1 (0.3) years and 825 (64.7%) were female. Older adults with falling difficulty or CVD were associated with an increased risk of all-cause- and CVD mortality. Older adults in the no falling difficulty & CVD group [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-1.78], the falling difficulty & no CVD group (HR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.12-1.89), and the falling difficulty & CVD group (HR = 2.13, 95%CI 1.77-2.56) were related to a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to those in the no falling difficulty & no CVD group. The combined effect of falling difficulty and CVD was positively correlated with the risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.26, 95%CI: 1.18-1.34; P-trend <0.001) and CVD mortality (HR = 1.36, 95%CI: 1.18-1.56; P-trend <0.001).

CONCLUSION

The combined effect of falling difficulty and CVD was positively associated with the risk of all-cause- and CVD mortality in older adults.

Prognostic evaluation of lymph-vascular space invasion in patients with endometrioid and non-endometrioid endometrial cancer: A multicenter study

INTRODUCTION

The prognostic value of lymph-vascular space invasion (LVSI) on endometrial cancer (EC) remains controversial. This study aimed to explore the impact of LVSI on patients with endometrioid and non-endometrioid EC in China.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed EC patients who underwent surgery from 2010 to 2019 in seven Chinese hospitals retrospectively and stratified patients based on histopathologic types and LVSI status. Endpoints were disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Propensity score matching (PSM) algorithm was used to balance the confounding factors. The survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to find prognostic independent risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 3715 EC patients, LVSI positive rate was 9.31% (346/3715). After matching, LVSI present group had shorter DFS (P = 0.005), and similar OS (P = 0.656) than LVSI absent group for endometrioid EC patients. For non-endometrioid EC patients, there was no statistical difference in either DFS (P = 0.536) or OS (P = 0.512) after matching. The multivariate Cox analysis showed that LVSI was an independent risk factor of DFS [hazard ratio (HR) 2.62, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.35-5.10, P = 0.005] and not OS (HR 1.24, 95%CI 0.49-3.13, P = 0.656) for endometrioid EC patients. It was not a prognostic factor of either DFS (HR 1.28, 95%CI 0.58-2.81, P = 0.539) or OS (HR 1.33, 95%CI 0.55-3.13, P = 0.515) for non-endometrioid EC patients.

CONCLUSION

LVSI is an adverse prognostic factor for endometrioid EC patients and has no impact on non-endometrioid EC patients. Necessity of postoperative adjuvant therapy based on LVSI needs to be carefully considered for non-endometrioid EC patients.

Associations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons mixtures with cardiovascular diseases mortality and all-cause mortality and the mediation role of phenotypic ageing: A time-to-event analysis

The associations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality are unclear, especially the joint effects of PAHs exposure. Meanwhile, no studies have examined the effect of phenotypic ageing on the relationship between PAHs and mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the independent and joint associations between PAHs and CVDs, all-cause mortality, and assess whether phenotypic age acceleration (PhenoAgeAccel) mediate this relationship. We retrospectively collected data of 11,983 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database. Firstly, Cox proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic splines were applied to evaluate the independent association of single PAH on mortality. Further, time-dependent Probit extension of Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression and quantile-based g-computation models were conducted to test the joint effect of PAHs on mortality. Then, difference method was used to calculate the mediation proportion of PhenoAgeAccel in the association between PAHs and mortality. Our results revealed that joint exposure to PAHs showed positive association with CVDs and all-cause mortality. By controlling potential confounders, 1-Hydroxynapthalene (1-NAP) (HR = 1.24, P = 0.035) and 2-Hydroxyfluorene (2-FLU) (HR = 1.25, P < 0.001) showed positive association with CVDs mortality, and they were the top 2 predictors (weight: 0.82 for 1-NAP, 0.14 for 2-FLU) of CVDs mortality. 1-NAP (HR = 1.15, P < 0.001) and 2-FLU (HR = 1.13, P < 0.001) also showed positive association with all-cause mortality, and they were also the top 2 predictors of all-cause mortality (weight: 0.66 for 1-NAP, 0.34 for 2-FLU). PhenoAgeAccel mediated the relationship between 1-NAP, 2-FLU and CVDs, all-cause mortality, with a mediation proportion of 10.00 % to 24.90 % (P < 0.05). Specifically, the components of PhenoAgeAccel including C-reactive protein, lymphocyte percent, white blood cell count, red cell distribution width, and mean cell volume were the main contributors of mediation effects. Our study highlights the hazards of joint exposure of PAHs and the importance of phenotypic ageing on the relationship between PAHs and mortality.

Pediatric traumatic brain injury and early age multiple sclerosis in Finland: A nationwide register-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Examine the link between pediatric traumatic brain injury (pTBI) and early-onset multiple sclerosis in Finland.

METHODS

Conducted nationwide register study (1998-2018) with 28,750 pTBI patients (< 18) and 38,399 pediatric references with extremity fractures. Multiple sclerosis diagnoses from Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Employed Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression for probability assessment, results presented with 95% CI.

RESULTS

Of 66 post-traumatic multiple sclerosis cases, 30 (0.10%) had pTBI, and 36 (0.09%) were in the reference group. Cumulative incidence rates (CIR) in the first 10 years were 46.5 per 100,000 (pTBI) and 33.1 per 100,000 (reference). Hazard ratio (HR) for pTBI was 1.10 (95% CI: 0.56-1.48).Stratified by gender, women's CIR was 197.9 per 100,000 (pTBI) and 167.0 per 100,000 (reference) after 15 years. For men, CIR was 44.6 per 100,000 (pTBI) and 34.7 per 100,000 (reference). In the initial 3 years, HR for female pTBI was 1.75 (95% CI: 0.05-6.32), and between years 3 and 20, it was 1.08 (95% CI: 0.51-1.67). For male patients, HR was 1.74 (95% CI: 0.69-4.39).

SIGNIFICANCE

We did not find evidence of an association between pTBI and early-onset multiple sclerosis 20 years post-initial trauma.

Anatomy Versus Biology: What Guides Chemotherapy Decisions in Older Patients With Breast Cancer?

INTRODUCTION

With the increasing utilization of genomic assays, such as the Oncotype DX recurrence score (RS), the relevance of anatomic staging has been questioned for select older patients with breast cancer. We sought to evaluate differences in chemotherapy receipt and/or survival among older patients based on RS and sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) receipt/result.

METHODS

Patients aged ≥ 65 diagnosed with pT1-2/cN0/M0 hormone-receptor-positive (HR+)/HER2-breast cancer (2010-2019) were selected from the National Cancer Database. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with chemotherapy receipt. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association of RS/SLNB group with overall survival. A cost-benefit study was also performed.

RESULTS

Of the 75,428 patients included, the majority had an intermediate RS (58.2% versus 27.9% low, 13.8% high) and were SLNB- (85.1% versus 11.6% SLNB+, 3.3% none). Chemotherapy was recommended for 13,442 patients (17.8%). After adjustment, chemotherapy receipt was more likely with higher RS and SLNB+. After adjustment, SLNB receipt/result was only associated with overall survival among those with an intermediate RS. However, returning to the OR for SLNB is not cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

SLNB receipt/result was associated with survival for those with an intermediate RS, but not a low or high RS, suggesting that an SLNB may indeed be unnecessary for select older patients with breast cancer.

A Bayesian proportional hazards mixture cure model for interval-censored data

The proportional hazards mixture cure model is a popular analysis method for survival data where a subgroup of patients are cured. When the data are interval-censored, the estimation of this model is challenging due to its complex data structure. In this article, we propose a computationally efficient semiparametric Bayesian approach, facilitated by spline approximation and Poisson data augmentation, for model estimation and inference with interval-censored data and a cure rate. The spline approximation and Poisson data augmentation greatly simplify the MCMC algorithm and enhance the convergence of the MCMC chains. The empirical properties of the proposed method are examined through extensive simulation studies and also compared with the R package "GORCure". The use of the proposed method is illustrated through analyzing a data set from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study.

The built-in selection bias of hazard ratios formalized using structural causal models

It is known that the hazard ratio lacks a useful causal interpretation. Even for data from a randomized controlled trial, the hazard ratio suffers from so-called built-in selection bias as, over time, the individuals at risk among the exposed and unexposed are no longer exchangeable. In this paper, we formalize how the expectation of the observed hazard ratio evolves and deviates from the causal effect of interest in the presence of heterogeneity of the hazard rate of unexposed individuals (frailty) and heterogeneity in effect (individual modification). For the case of effect heterogeneity, we define the causal hazard ratio. We show that the expected observed hazard ratio equals the ratio of expectations of the latent variables (frailty and modifier) conditionally on survival in the world with and without exposure, respectively. Examples with gamma, inverse Gaussian and compound Poisson distributed frailty and categorical (harming, beneficial or neutral) distributed effect modifiers are presented for illustration. This set of examples shows that an observed hazard ratio with a particular value can arise for all values of the causal hazard ratio. Therefore, the hazard ratio cannot be used as a measure of the causal effect without making untestable assumptions, stressing the importance of using more appropriate estimands, such as contrasts of the survival probabilities.

Fat intake modifies association between cigarette smoking and lung cancer in a prospective cohort study: A potential explanation for the lung cancer paradox

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It remains unclear why the association between cigarette smoking and lung cancer was substantially stronger in Western countries than in Asian countries. As experimental studies have revealed that fat intake modulates tobacco carcinogen metabolism and the growth of transplanted or carcinogen-induced lung tumors in mice, the present study sought to investigate whether the association between cigarette smoking and lung cancer was modified by intake of total fat and types of fat (saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fats) in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial.

METHODS

During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 1,425 cases of lung cancer were documented from 100,864 participants eligible for the present analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

After adjustment for established or suspected confounders, the strength of the association between cigarette smoking and lung cancer was remarkably larger among individuals with high fat intake. HRs (95% CIs) comparing current with never smokers were 23.0 (13.4, 39.6), 32.7 (20.3, 52.8), and 59.8 (30.2, 118.2) for the tertile 1 (≤13.48 g/day), tertile 2 (13.49-21.89 g/day), and tertile 3 (≥21.90 g/day) of saturate fat intake, respectively. A similar pattern of the non-significant interaction was observed when the accumulated amount of cigarette smoking (1-19, 20-39, and ≥40 vs. 0 pack-years) was entered into the regression models.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study showed that lung cancer risk associated with both the status and accumulated amount of cigarette smoking was remarkably stronger in individuals with high intakes of fat, particularly saturated fat. However, this interaction was not statistically significant and thus warrants further investigations in other studies.

Adolescents and young adults with rhabdomyosarcoma: A report from the Soft Tissue Sarcoma Committee of the Children's Oncology Group

INTRODUCTION

The impact of established prognostic factors on survival outcomes for childhood rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) have not been well described in the adolescent and young adult (AYA) RMS patient population.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of patients with newly diagnosed RMS enrolled between 1997 and 2016 on seven previously reported Children's Oncology Group (COG) clinical trials. Demographics, clinical features, treatment details, and outcome data were collected. Five-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated for patients diagnosed at age 15-39 years and those diagnosed under age 15 years using the Kaplan-Meier method. Log-rank test was used to compare prognostic factors for EFS and OS. Factors significant in the univariable analysis were included in a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Nonsignificant covariates were removed from the multiple regression model.

RESULTS

Total 2151 patients including 402 AYAs were analyzed. AYAs were more likely to present with primary tumors ≥5 cm in size, metastatic disease, alveolar histology, and have FOXO1 fusions compared to children. Five-year EFS for the AYA cohort was 44.2% versus 67% for children (p < .001), and 5-year OS was 52% for the AYA cohort versus 78% for children (p < .001). Multivariable analysis revealed tumor site, size and invasiveness, clinical group, and histology were prognostic in AYAs.

CONCLUSION

AYAs with RMS have a poorer prognosis compared to younger children due to multiple factors. Further research focused on AYAs to better understand RMS biology and improve treatments is critical to improve survival.

Prognostic value of the modified Glasgow prognostic score in biliary tract cancer patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Biliary tract cancer (BTC) is an invasive adenocarcinoma affecting the hepatobiliary system, but high recurrence rates highlight the need for more effective adjuvant approaches. The modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) has been explored as an independent prognostic indicator in patients with BTC. However, consensus on its prognostic value is lacking. This meta-analysis aimed to comprehensively assess the association between mGPS and diverse clinical outcomes in BTC by systematically analyzing relevant studies.

METHODS

A systematic search approach was used to look for eligible papers published until June 2023 in PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase, with a focus on overall survival (OS) and disease-free/recurrence-free survival (DFS/RFS). The prognostic potential of mGPS was assessed using hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% CIs.

RESULTS

A total of 15 papers comprising 2447 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The results demonstrated that, in patients with BTC, the high mGPS was associated with poorer OS (HR=1.49, 95% CI=1.35-1.65, P<0.001) and DFS/RFS (HR=3.23, 95%CI=1.98-5.26, P=0.193).

CONCLUSION

According to this meta-analysis, our study found that high mGPS was associated with poorer OS and DFS/RFS in patients with BTC.

Risk factors and survival analysis of human leukocyte antigen loss in relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia/myelodysplastic syndrome patients after allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation

To investigate the clinical characteristics and risk factors of specific human leukocyte antigen loss (HLA loss) in relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia (AML)/myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients after allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), and compare the responses of patients with HLA loss relapse with those without HLA loss (non-HLA loss) to different treatment regimens. Clinical data of traceable patients with AML/MDS after myeloablative allo-HSCT in our centre between January 2010 and June 2021, who experienced disease relapse after the transplantation, were collected. The patients were divided into the HLA loss relapse group and the non-HLA loss relapsed group based on HLA loss gene test findings by next-generation sequencing. The patients' median overall survival (OS) after the relapse were compared, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Cox proportional hazard model to explore the responses to different treatments after relapse. A total of 2359 patients were selected. Retrospective HLA gene loss gene detection was performed for the deoxyribonucleic acid in 179 relapsed patients, including 47 patients in the HLA loss group (27.2%), 126 patients in the non-HLA loss group (72.8%) and 6 patients were excluded due to a lack of confirmed results. There was no significant statistical difference in the baseline characteristics of patients between the two groups, but as to transplantation-related characteristics, the donor-recipient relationship and HLA mismatched loci were statistically different between the two groups (both p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that more HLA mismatched loci ≥3 (HR = 3.66; 95% CI: 1.61-8.31; p = 0.002), time (≤6 months) from HSCT to relapse (HR = 7.92; 95% CI: 3.35-18.74; p < 0.001) and donor chimerism (CD3) in bone marrow at relapse (HR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.03; p = 0.036) were independent factors affecting HLA loss relapse. The ratio of negative conversion of FLT3-ITD or CEBPA mutation was significantly lower in patients with post-transplantation HLA loss relapse than in the non-HLA loss group (0.0% vs. 45.5%, p = 0.003; 0.0% vs. 80.0%, p = 0.035), with none of the patients with FLT3-ITD or CEBPA mutation turned negative in the HLA loss group. The number of gene mutations turned negative when relapse in the non-HLA loss group was remarkably higher than that in the HLA loss group (p = 0.001). Using donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI) could not prolong OS for the HLA loss group (p = 0.42). Nevertheless, second transplantation had a significant positive impact on OS in the HLA loss group (p = 0.017), although only five patients in the HLA loss group underwent second transplantation. However, patients in the non-HLA loss group using DLI had a relatively longer OS time than those without DLI (p = 0.017). Second transplantation could also prolong OS in the non-HLA loss group, but the effect was not as significant as in the HLA loss group (p = 0.053). In summary, HLA loss detection is essential for patients with recurrence after transplantation, especially for those with more HLA mismatched loci and non-sibling donor. Furthermore, the detection of HLA loss has a guiding role in choosing subsequent therapy when relapsed, as secondary transplantation is more suitable than DLI for those with HLA loss.

Mining and validation of prognosis of various visceral metastasis in renal cell carcinoma: a study based on SEER database

Our study was aimed to analyze a substantial of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients, research the high-risk factors and prognostic factors of metastasis, and thoroughly examine the effects of primary site surgery, lymph node dissection (LND), and chemotherapy on the prognosis of different visceral metastases. The baseline characteristics were characterized, and logistic regression was used to predict the risk factors for metastasis. Prognostic factors of metastatic RCC were assessed using batch univariate and multivariate Cox regression, with adjustments made through PSM. Next, the Kaplan-Meier method was employed to assess OS and create the survival curve. Logistic regression identified risk factors for metastasis: male gender [OR, 1.223; P < 0.001], Hist clear (OR, 9.37; P < 0.001), Hist papillary (OR, 2.49; P < 0.001), and TTX (OR, 23.33; P < 0.001). We found several independent prognostic variables: among which chemotherapy (HR, 0.64), local LND (HR, 0.67), and primary site surgery (HR, 0.97) were associated with better OS. Further study results demonstrated that all kinds of visceral metastasis except for liver metastasis in the operation group had substantially better prognoses than those in the non-operation group (P < 0.05). Regional LND had no discernible impact on survival. Patients with liver, lung, and distant lymph node (LN) metastasis benefited from chemotherapy (P < 0.05), but the bone and brain metastasis did not significantly benefit from treatment (P > 0.05). We recommend primary surgery for different types of visceral metastases except liver metastasis. Routine regional LND is not recommended. Chemotherapy should be considered for patients with lung, distant LN, and liver metastases, but not for those with bone and brain metastases.

Cardiogenic shock and chronic kidney disease: Dangerous liaisons

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, closely interrelated with cardiovascular diseases, ultimately leading to the failure of both organs - the so-called "cardiorenal syndrome". Despite this burden, data related to cardiogenic shock outcomes in CKD patients are scarce.

METHODS

FRENSHOCK (NCT02703038) was a prospective registry involving 772 patients with cardiogenic shock from 49 centres. One-year outcomes (rehospitalization, death, heart transplantation, ventricular assist device) were analysed according to history of CKD at admission and were adjusted on independent predictive factors.

RESULTS

CKD was present in 164 of 771 patients (21.3%) with cardiogenic shock; these patients were older (72.7 vs. 63.9years) and had more comorbidities than those without CKD. CKD was associated with a higher rate of all-cause mortality at 1month (36.6% vs. 23.2%; hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.9; P=0.04) and 1year (62.8% vs. 40.5%, hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.77; P<0.01). Patients with CKD were less likely to be treated with norepinephrine/epinephrine or undergo invasive ventilation or receive mechanical circulatory support, but were more likely to receive renal replacement therapy (RRT). RRT was associated with a higher risk of all-cause death at 1month and 1year regardless of baseline CKD status.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiogenic shock and CKD are frequent "cross-talking" conditions with limited therapeutic options, resulting in higher rates of death at 1month and 1year. RRT is a strong predictor of death, regardless of preexisting CKD. Multidisciplinary teams involving cardiac and kidney physicians are required to provide integrated care for patients with failure of both organs.

Comparison of Comorbidity Models Within a Population-Based Cohort of Older Adults With Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

PURPOSE

Compare the association of individual comorbidities, comorbidity indices, and survival in older adults with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), including in specific NHL subtypes.

METHODS

Data source was SEER-Medicare, a population-based registry of adults age 65 years and older with cancer. We included all incident cases of NHL diagnosed during 2008-2017 who met study inclusion criteria. Comorbidities were classified using the three-factor risk estimate scale (TRES), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and National Cancer Institute (NCI) comorbidity index categories and weights. Overall survival (OS) and lymphoma-specific survival, with death from other causes treated as a competing risk, were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method from time of diagnosis. Multivariable Cox models were constructed, and Harrel C-statistics were used to compare comorbidity models. A two-sided P value of <.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

A total of 40,486 patients with newly diagnosed NHL were included. Patients with aggressive NHL had higher rates of baseline comorbidity. Despite differences in baseline comorbidity between NHL subtypes, cardiovascular, pulmonary, diabetes, and renal comorbidities were frequent and consistently associated with OS in most NHL subtypes. These categories were used to construct a candidate comorbidity score, the non-Hodgkin lymphoma 5 (NHL-5). Comparing three validated comorbidity scores, TRES, CCI, NCI, and the novel NHL-5 score, we found similar associations with OS and lymphoma-specific survival, which was confirmed in sensitivity analyses by NHL subtypes.

CONCLUSION

The optimal measure of comorbidity in NHL is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the three-category TRES and five-category NHL-5 scores perform as well as the 14-16 category CCI and NCI scores in terms of association with OS and lymphoma-specific survival. These simple scores could be more easily used in clinical practice without prognostic loss.

Effect of Hospital Cancer Designation on use of Multimodal Therapy and Survival of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A State-Wide Analysis

BACKGROUND

Stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) often requires multidisciplinary approach. However, multimodal treatment options (receipt of > 1 type of treatment) may not be uniformly delivered across health systems. We characterized the association between center-level cancer center designation and receipt of multimodal treatment and survival.

METHODS

The Texas Cancer Registry was used to identify patients diagnosed with stage IV CRC from 2004-2017. We identified those who received care at either: a National Cancer Institute-designated (NCI-D), an American College of Surgeons-Commission on Cancer-designated (ACS-D), or an undesignated facility. We used multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression for analysis to assess receipt of one or more treatment modality and 5-year overall survival.

RESULTS

Of 19,355 patients with stage IV CRC, 2955 (15%) received care at an NCI-D facility and 5871 (30%) received multimodal therapy. Both NCI-D (odds ratio [OR] 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-1.81) and ACS-D (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.27-1.48) were associated with increased likelihood of multimodal therapy compared with undesignated centers. NCI-D also was associated with significantly improved survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.74; 95% CI 0.70-0.78), although ACS-D was associated with a modest improvement in survival (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.92-0.99). Receipt of multimodal therapy was strongly associated with improved survival (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.59-0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with stage IV CRC, treatment at ACS-D and NCI-D facilities was associated with increased use of multimodality therapy and improved survival. However, only a small proportion of patients have access to these specialized centers, highlighting a need for expanded access to multimodal therapies at other centers.

The association of short and long sleep with mortality in men and women

Both short (< 6 hr) and long (> 8 hr) sleep are associated with increased mortality. We here investigated whether the association between sleep duration and all-cause, cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality differs between men and women. A cohort of 34,311 participants (mean age and standard deviation = 50.5 ± 15.5 years, 65% women), with detailed assessment of sleep at baseline and up to 20.5 years of follow-up (18 years for cause-specific mortality), was analysed using Cox proportional hazards model to estimate HRs with 95% confidence intervals. After adjustment for covariates, all-cause, cardiovascular disease and cancer mortalities were increased for both < 5 hr and ≥ 9 hr sleep durations (with 6 hr as reference). For all-cause mortality, women who slept < 5 hr had a hazard ratio = 1.54 (95% confidence interval = 1.32-1.80), while the corresponding hazard ratio was 1.05 (95% confidence interval = 0.88-1.27) for men, the interaction being significant (p < 0.05). For cardiovascular disease mortality, exclusion of the first 2 years of exposure, as well as competing risk analysis eliminated the originally significant interaction. Cancer mortality did not show any significant interaction. Survival analysis of the difference between the reference duration (6 hr) and the short duration (< 5 hr) during follow-up showed a gradually steeper reduction of survival time for women than for men for all-cause mortality. We also observed that the lowest cancer mortality appeared for the 5-hr sleep duration. In conclusion, the pattern of association between short sleep duration and all-cause mortality differed between women and men, and the difference between men and women increased with follow-up time.

Lung Transplant Outcomes for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Are We Improving?

BACKGROUND

After implementation of the Lung Allocation Score in 2005, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) emerged as the most common indication for lung transplantation (LT) in the United States. The age and comorbidity of patients undergoing LT have since increased, and the indications for LT have evolved. However, limited data have been used to analyze more recent outcomes among the IPF population.

METHODS

This study analyzed LTs for the primary indication of IPF by using the United Network for Organ Sharing database. An eras-based analysis was performed, comparing patient characteristics, survival, and related outcomes during 2005 to 2009 (era 1) and 2010 to 2014 (era 2) with χ2, Wilcoxon rank sum, and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The study compared 1-year survival from 2005 to 2020 and survival at milestones ranging from 1 month to 5 years. Two adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were conducted: 5-year survival by era and 1-year survival annually from 2010 to 2020.

RESULTS

From era 1 (n = 1818) to era 2 (n = 3227), the median age of LT recipients increased from 61 to 63 years (P < .001). The percentage of patients in the intensive care unit before LT climbed from 7.7% to 12.1% (P < .001), and the percentage of patients with diabetes grew from 17.9% to 19.4% (P = .003). Despite increased severity of illness, 5-year survival increased from 51.9% in era 1 to 55.2% in era 2 (P = .02). Adjusted modeling indicated that LT during era 2 featured a 17% hazard reduction compared with era 1 (hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival is improving for patients undergoing LT for IPF, despite the challenges of transplant recipients with progressively higher risk profiles.

Metformin and the risks of cellulitis, foot infections, and amputation in patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Patients with diabetes tend to have cellulitis, foot infections, and amputation. We conducted this research to compare the risks of cellulitis, foot infections, and amputation between metformin no-use and use in persons with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Using propensity score matching, we identified 23 234 pairs of metformin nonusers and users from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, since January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2017. Cox proportional hazards models were adopted to examine the risks of incident cellulitis, recurrent cellulitis, foot infections, and amputation between metformin use and no-use.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up period of metformin use and no-use was 6.31 (3.93) and 5.54 (3.97) years, respectively. Compared with metformin no-use, the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval for metformin use in cellulitis development, recurrent cellulitis, foot infections, and amputation were 1.08 (1.04-1.12), 1.33 (1.14-1.55), 1.91 (1.75-2.09), and 1.88 (1.35-2.62), respectively. The longer cumulative duration of metformin usage had association with higher risks of these outcomes than metformin no-use.

CONCLUSION

This population-based cohort study revealed that metformin use had association with significantly higher risks of incident cellulitis, recurrent cellulitis, foot infections, and amputation than metformin no-use in patients with type 2 diabetes.

The risk of unprovoked seizure occurrence after status epilepticus in adults

OBJECTIVE

Status epilepticus (SE) may lead to long-term consequences. This study evaluated the risk and predictors of seizure occurrence after SE, with a focus on SE due to acute symptomatic etiologies.

METHODS

Prospectively collected data about adults surviving a first non-hypoxic SE were reviewed. The outcome was the occurrence of unprovoked seizures during the follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis and log-rank test were used to analyze the time to seizure occurrence and determine the statistical significance between etiological groups. Three subcategories within acute etiology were considered according to the presence of the following: (1) structural lesion (acute-primary); (2) brain involvement during systemic disorders (acute-secondary); and (3) drug or alcohol intoxication/withdrawal (acute-toxic). Cox proportional hazards model was adopted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with the 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Two hundreds fifty-seven individuals were included. Fifty-four subjects (21.0%) developed seizures after a median of 9.9 (interquartile range 4.3-21.7) months after SE. The estimated 1-, 2-, and 5-year rates of seizure occurrence according to acute SE etiologies were 19.4%, 23.4%, and 30.1%, respectively, for acute-primary central nervous system (CNS) pathology; 2.2%, 2.2%, and 8.7%, respectively, for acute-secondary CNS pathology; and 0%, 9.1%, and 9.1%, respectively, for acute-toxic causes. Five-year rates of seizure occurrence for non-acute SE causes were 33.9% for remote, 65.7% for progressive, and 25.9% for unknown etiologies. In multivariate Cox regression model, progressive etiology (adjusted HR [adjHR] 2.27, 95% CI 1.12-4.58), SE with prominent motor phenomena evolving in non-convulsive SE (adjHR 3.17, 95% CI 1.38-7.25), and non-convulsive SE (adjHR 2.38, 95% CI 1.16-4.90) were independently associated with higher hazards of unprovoked seizures. Older people (adjHR .98, 95% CI .96-.99) and people with SE due to acute-secondary CNS pathology (adjHR .18, 95% CI .04-.82) were at decreased risk of seizure occurrence.

SIGNIFICANCE

SE carries a risk of subsequent seizures. Both the underlying cause and epileptogenic effects of SE are likely to contribute.

Associations between meat consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in middle-aged and older adults with frailty

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the associations between different types of meat consumption and mortality risk among people with frailty.

DESIGN

Longitudinal study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We included 19,913 physically frail participants from the UK Biobank.

MEASUREMENTS

We used the validated brief food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to measure meat consumption. Baseline diet data from 2006 to 2010 were collected, and participants were followed up until March 23, 2021. Cox proportional hazards regression models were conducted to examine the associations of meat consumption with mortality risk.

RESULTS

We identified 3,622 all-cause deaths, 1,453 cancer deaths, and 1,663 cardiovascular deaths during a median follow-up time of 11.2 years. Higher consumption of unprocessed poultry (per 25 g/day increment) was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.88), cancer mortality (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.96), and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.81). Consumption of unprocessed red meat had a U-shaped relationship with mortality. Moderate consumption of unprocessed red meat 1.0-1.9 times/week was associated with a 14% (95% CI: 3 %-24%) lower risk of all-cause mortality than the lowest consumption frequency group (0-0.9 times/week). The hazard of cancer and CV mortality was also lower in the 1.0-1.9 times/week group, though the associations were not statistically significant. More frequent consumption of processed meat was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.34) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02-1.42). Fish consumption was not associated with all types of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher consumption of processed meat, not fish, was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In contrast, higher consumption of unprocessed poultry and moderate consumption of unprocessed red meat was associated with reduced all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality. These findings warrant further investigation to establish optimal dietary patterns for frail individuals.

Risk of Anxiety, Depression, and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Pediatric Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is associated with depression and anxiety in adults, but data are scarce on risk of psychiatric diseases in children with IBD. We aimed to estimate the risk of anxiety, depression, or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in patients with pediatric-onset IBD.

METHODS

We performed a nationwide, register-based cohort study including all patients with pediatric-onset IBD diagnosed in Denmark during 1998-2018, resulting in 3,559 patients matched 1:5 on age, sex, municipality of residence, and time period, resulting in 17,795 reference individuals. We used Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios for each outcome after a diagnosis with IBD.

RESULTS

Patients with pediatric-onset IBD had an increased risk of depression (hazard ratio [HR] 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-1.80) and of using antidepressants (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.39-1.71) and, surprisingly, a reduced risk of using methylphenidate (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.98). Patients with both IBD subtypes (Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis) had an increased risk of using antidepressants and developing depression, which was particularly high in patients with Crohn's disease (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.35-2.22). Patients with ulcerative colitis had reduced risk of using methylphenidate (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.93) and a reduced-although not statistically significant-risk of being diagnosed with ADHD compared with the background population.

DISCUSSION

Patients with pediatric-onset IBD have a 50% increased risk of developing depression, which is important for healthcare providers to be aware of and manage. Remarkably, we found a reduced risk of receiving methylphenidate and being diagnosed with ADHD, which merits further investigation.

Toward a prognostic model for all-cause mortality among old people with disability in long-term care in China

BACKGROUND

Current prognostic model of all-cause mortality may not be applicable for old people with disability in long-term care due to the absence of injury- and care-related predictors. We aimed to develop a prognostic model specifically tailored to this population, based on comprehensive predictors.

METHOD

We conducted a prospective study involving 41,004 participants aged ≥60 with disability in long-term care across 16 study sites in Southwest China from 2017 to 2021. Participants' demographics, clinical characteristics, disability status, and injury- and care-related information at baseline were used as candidate predictors. We employed a LASSO Cox regression model to develop the prognostic model using the training set (70 % of participants), and the predictive performance was validated in the validation set (30 % of participants). The prognostic index (PI) scores of the prognostic model were used to quantify mortality risk.

RESULTS

At the end of the 4-year follow-up, 17,797 deaths (43.4 %) were observed. The prognostic model revealed several powerful and robust predictors of mortality across the total sample and subgroups, including higher age, living with comorbidities, physical and perceptual disability, and living with pressure sores. Non-professional care was an additional predictor in older participants. The risk of death for participants in the highest quartile of PI scores was approximately four-fold higher compared to those in the lowest quartile.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a prognostic model that can be practically utilized to identify individuals and populations at risk of death among old people with disability in long-term care.

Additional bypass graft or concomitant surgical ablation? Insights from the HEIST registry

BACKGROUND

Surgical ablation for atrial fibrillation at the time of isolated coronary artery bypass grafting is reluctantly attempted. Meanwhile, complete revascularization is not always possible in these patients. We attempted to counterbalance the long-term benefits of surgical ablation against the risks of incomplete revascularization.

METHODS

Atrial fibrillation patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting for multivessel disease between 2012 to 2022 and included in the HEart surgery In atrial fibrillation and Supraventricular Tachycardia registry were divided into complete revascularization, complete revascularization with additional grafts, and incomplete revascularization cohorts; these were further split into surgical ablation and non-surgical ablation subgroups.

RESULTS

A total of 8,405 patients (78% men; age 69.3 ± 7.9) were included; of those, 5,918 (70.4%) had complete revascularization, and 556 (6.6%) had surgical ablation performed. Number of anastomoses was 2.7 ± 1.2. The median follow-up was 5.1 [interquartile range 2.1-8.8] years. In patients in whom complete revascularization was achieved, surgical ablation was associated with long-term survival benefit: hazard ratio 0.69; 95% confidence intervals (0.50-0.94); P = .020 compared with grafting additional lesions. Similarly, in patients in whom complete revascularization was not achieved, surgical ablation was associated with a long-term survival benefit of 0.68 (0.49-0.94); P = .019. When comparing surgical ablation on top of incomplete revascularization against complete revascularization without additional grafts or surgical ablation, there was no difference between the 2: 0.84 (0.61-1.17); P = .307, which was also consistent in the propensity score-matched analysis: 0.75 (0.39-1.43); P = .379.

CONCLUSION

To achieve complete revascularization is of utmost importance. However, when facing incomplete revascularization at the time of coronary artery bypass grafting in a patient with underlying atrial fibrillation, concomitant surgical ablation on top of incomplete revascularization is associated with similar long-term survival as complete revascularization without surgical ablation.

Aspirin use and head and neck cancer survival and recurrence

BACKGROUND

Head and neck cancer (HNC) has low 5-year survival, and evidence-based recommendations for tertiary prevention are lacking. Aspirin improves outcomes for cancers at other sites, but its role in HNC tertiary prevention remains understudied.

METHODS

HNC patients were recruited in the University of Michigan Head and Neck Cancer Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) from 2003 to 2014. Aspirin data were collected through medical record review; outcomes (overall mortality, HNC-specific mortality, and recurrence) were collected through medical record review, Social Security Death Index, or LexisNexis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the associations between aspirin use at diagnosis (yes/no) and HNC outcomes.

RESULTS

We observed no statistically significant associations between aspirin and cancer outcome in our HNC patient cohort (n = 1161) (HNC-specific mortality: HR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.68-1.21; recurrence: HR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.73-1.19). In analyses stratified by anatomic site, HPV status, and disease stage, we observed no association in any strata examined with the possible exception of a lower risk of recurrence in oropharynx patients (HR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.35-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not support a protective association between aspirin use and cancer-specific death or recurrence in HNC patients, with the possible exception of a lower risk of recurrence in oropharynx patients.

Association of Testosterone and Sex Hormone-Binding Globulin With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Older Chinese Men

BACKGROUND

The associations of high and low testosterone with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in men are conflicting. Our objective was to examine associations of total testosterone, free testosterone, bioavailable testosterone, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with all-cause and CVD mortality in older Chinese men.

METHODS

Total testosterone and SHBG were assayed, and free testosterone and bioavailable testosterone were calculated using Vermeulen formula. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the associations with risks of all-cause and CVD mortality, giving hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Of 3 948 men aged 50+ years, 949 deaths (312 CVD) occurred during an average 10.5-year follow-up. After multivariable adjustments, the highest, versus the third, quartile of total testosterone and free testosterone were associated with higher all-cause mortality risk (1.17 [0.97-1.41] and 1.45 [1.20-1.74], respectively), whereas free testosterone was associated with higher CVD mortality risk (1.88 [1.33-2.66]). Similar positive associations were found for bioavailable testosterone and all-cause mortality risk (1.27 [1.05-1.54]). Lower SHBG (quartile 1 vs quartile 3) was associated with higher all-cause and CVD mortality risk (1.25 [1.04-1.52] and 1.28 [1.08-1.52], respectively). Consistent associations were observed in relatively healthy men and men excluded death during the first year.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher total testosterone, free testosterone, and bioavailable testosterone were associated with higher all-cause mortality in older men, higher free testosterone was associated with higher CVD mortality whilst lower SHBG was associated with higher all-cause and CVD mortality. Clarification and confirmation of causality require further mechanistic studies.

Real-World Treatment Patterns and Clinical Outcomes Among Patients With Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Nearly 30% of new renal cell carcinoma (RCC) cases are diagnosed at an advanced or metastatic stage. Recent approvals of immunotherapies (IO) have significantly impacted patient care, but real-world outcomes of these treatments have not been widely evaluated.

METHODS

Eligible physicians abstracted demographic and clinical data from patient medical records for patients with advanced clear and non-clear cell RCC (aRCC) who initiated treatment between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox regression model was developed to assess the impact of treatment category on clinical outcomes while controlling for International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium (IMDC) risk category, histology, and other patient characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 498 patients were included (201 from US, 62 from Canada, 58 from UK, 59 from France, 58 from Germany, 60 from Spain). Of these, 250 received tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) monotherapy, 197 received immunotherapy (IO) combination (119 IO+TKI, 78 IO+IO), and 32 received IO monotherapy as first-line treatment for aRCC; 19 patients received various other regimens. 16% of patients had a favorable IMDC risk score. Based on results of multivariable Cox regression, PFS (hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 0.50 [0.36-0.72]) (P < .001) and time to next treatment (TTNT) were significantly longer (HR [95% CI]: 0.54 [0.39-0.73]) (P < .001) for patients treated with IO combination versus TKI monotherapy. IO combination had a numerically reduced, but statistically insignificant, risk of death versus TKI monotherapy (HR: 0.66; P = .114). IO+TKI combination was associated with significantly longer PFS and reduced risk of progression (HR: 0.52; P = .04) versus IO+IO combination; similar results were observed for TTNT (HR: 0.57; P = .03).

CONCLUSION

Our evaluation of real-world treatment outcomes in aRCC revealed that IO + TKI combination is associated with improved PFS and prolonged TTNT compared with TKI monotherapy and IO+IO combination.

The Ability of the STAR-CAP Staging System to Prognosticate the Risk of Subsequent Therapies and Metastases After Initial Treatment of M0 Prostate Cancer

INTRODUCTION

The International Staging Collaboration for Prostate Cancer (STAR-CAP) has been proposed as a risk model for prostate cancer with superior prognostic power compared to the current staging system. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of STAR-CAP in predicting the risk of subsequent therapy after initial treatment and the risk of developing metastases.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included 3425 men from an institutional observational registry with a median age of 64.9 years and a median follow-up time of 5.4 years. The primary endpoints were metastases and progression to additional therapy after initial therapy (radiation ± surgery). The risk of progression in the STAR-CAP group was estimated using a competing risk model (death).

RESULTS

The results showed that patients with STAR-CAP stages 1A-1C had a similar risk of requiring additional therapies and developing metastasis. Compared to stage IC, each stage from 2A to 3B incrementally increased the risk of subsequent therapy (hazard ratio (HR) 1.4-5.8, respectively) and metastases (HR 1.5-10.8, respectively). The 5-year probability of receiving subsequent therapy for a patient with stage IC was 8.6%, which increased from 11.4% to 37.4% for those with stages 2A to 3B. The 5-year probability of developing metastases for patients with stage IC was 1.5%, which increased from 2.2% to 8.2% for patients with stages 2A to 3B.

CONCLUSIONS

The probability of receiving subsequent therapy was higher for patients undergoing surgery, while radiation therapy patients were more likely to receive treatment with intensified multimodality therapies upfront.

The role of donor sex on the post-liver transplant outcomes in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) can result in hepatic decompensation and require liver transplantation (LT). This study investigates the effect of the sex of the donor and recipient as a prognostic risk factor for adverse outcomes after LT in patients with PSC.

METHODS

UNOS registry was used to select LT patients with PSC from 1987 to 2019. The study cohort was stratified based on the sex of the recipient and further subdivided based on the sex of the donor. The primary endpoints of this study were all-cause mortality and graft failure, which were evaluated using a sequential Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

This study included 2829 patients; 906 female recipients were transplanted from 441 male donors and 465 female donors. 1923 male recipients were transplanted from 1194 male donors and 729 female donors. Within the mismatch analyses, the male-to-male recipients also had a significantly reduced hazard ratio of graft failure compared to female-to-male transplants [aHR 0.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33-0.79, P  = 0.003]. No difference in graft failure was observed in the mismatched female recipient subgroup. The mismatched male recipient group also showed a decreased hazard ratio of mortality from graft rejection and respiratory causes. No differences in specific mortality causes were identified in the mismatched female recipient group.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated an increase in the risk of graft failure and mortality secondary to graft failure in male recipients of female donor livers. No differences in mortality or graft failure were identified in female recipients of male livers.

A Ten-Year Follow-Up Study of the Association Between Uric Acid and Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

The association between uric acid (UA) and long-term mortality in patients with coronary artery disease is poorly investigated. We assessed the association between UA and 10-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in 3,998 patients who underwent PCI. Patients were categorized in groups according to UA tertiles: tertile 1 (UA <5.80 mg/100 ml, n = 1,347), tertile 2 (UA 5.80 to 7.04 mg/100 ml, n = 1,340), and tertile 3 (UA >7.94 mg/100 ml, n = 1,311). The primary outcome was 10-year all-cause mortality. All-cause deaths occurred in 1,200 patients: 320 deaths (26.5%) in patients with UA in the first tertile, 325 deaths (26.9%) in patients with UA in the second tertile, and 555 deaths (46.0%) in patients with UA in the third tertile (adjusted hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.27, p <0.001) for 1 mg/100 ml increment in UA level. Cardiac deaths occurred in 748 patients: 194 deaths (16.5%) in patients with UA in the first tertile, 202 deaths (17.0%) in patients with UA in the second tertile, and 352 deaths (29.7%) in patients with UA in the third tertile (adjusted hazard ratio 1.24 [1.17 to 1.32], p <0.001) for 1 mg/100 ml increment in the UA level. The 10-year rates of target lesion revascularization, target vessel revascularization, or nontarget vessel revascularization did not differ significantly according to the UA level. In conclusion, in patients with coronary artery disease treated with PCI, increased UA level was associated with higher 10-year mortality. Increased UA level was not associated with the progression of atherosclerosis in nontreated coronary vessels or progression of intimal hyperplasia in stented lesions requiring intervention.

Association of liver function and prognosis in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome

OBJECTIVES

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an epidemic emerging infectious disease with high mortality rate. We investigated the association between liver injury and clinical outcomes in patients with SFTS.

METHODS

A total of 291 hospitalized SFTS patients were retrospectively included. Cox proportional hazards model was adopted to identify risk factors of fatal outcome and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate cumulative risks.

RESULTS

60.1% of patients had liver injury at admission, and the median alanine transaminase, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and total bilirubin (TBil) levels were 76.4 U/L, 152.3 U/L, 69.8 U/L and 9.9 μmol/L, respectively. Compared to survivors, non-survivors had higher levels of AST (253.0 U/L vs. 131.1 U/L, P < 0.001) and ALP (86.2 U/L vs. 67.9 U/L, P = 0.006), higher proportion of elevated ALP (20.0% vs. 4.4%, P < 0.001) and liver injury (78.5% vs. 54.9%, P = 0.001) at admission. The presence of liver injury (HR 2.049, P = 0.033) at admission was an independent risk factor of fatal outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver injury was a common complication and was strongly associated with poor prognosis in SFTS patients. Liver function indicators should be closely monitored for SFTS patients.

[The impact of modified T3 sub-staging on the prognosis of gallbladder cancer patients]

Objective: To explore the value of a new modified T3 sub-staging for the prognosis evaluation in gallbladder cancer patients. Methods: This is a retrospective case-series study. The clinical data of patients with pathologically confirmed stage T3 gallbladder cancer who were admitted to the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery,the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University from January 2011 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 190 patients were enrolled in this study, 67 males and 123 females, with an age (M(IQR)) of 63(14) years (range:17 to 88 years). The stage T3 was divided into four sub-stages according to the site of tumor invasion: (1) T3a:tumor perforates the serosa,but not invading the liver and one other adjacent structure; (2) T3b:tumor perforates the serosa and invades one other adjacent structure,but not the liver; (3) T3c:tumor perforates the serosa and invades the liver,but not one other adjacent structure; (4) T3d:tumor perforates the serosa,invades the liver and one other adjacent structure. To evaluate the application value of this modified sub-staging,the Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the survival curve,univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were done using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model respectively. Results: According to the modified T3 sub-staging method,34 patients (17.9%) were in stage T3a,24 cases(12.6%) were in stage T3b, 97 cases (51.1%) were in stage T3c, and 35 cases (18.4%) were in stage T3d. The median survival time of patients in stages T3a,T3b,T3c and T3d after radical resection was 72.0 months, 32.0 months, 12.0 months and 10.0 months, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of patients in stage T3a, T3b, T3c and T3d were 79.4%, 53.3%, and 53.3%; 79.2%, 44.6%, and 26.0%;49.5%,27.5%,and 18.1%;42.9%,15.9%, and 15.9% (χ2=18.349,P<0.01),respectively. Univariate analysis showed that gallbladder stones,pathological differentiation,perineural invasion, N stage,postoperative adjuvant therapy and modified T3 substage were factors affecting patient prognosis(all P<0.05). Cox multivariate analysis showed that modified sub-stages with T3c (HR=2.043, 95%CI:1.176 to 3.549) and T3d(HR=2.419, 95%CI:1.284 to 4.555), accompanied by gallbladder stones (HR=1.661,95%CI:1.150 to 2.398),pathological differentiation with poorly differentiated(HR=1.709,95%CI:1.198 to 2.438), and the N stage with N1 and N2(HR=1.602, 95%CI:1.090 to 2.355, 2.714, 95%CI: 1.621 to 4.544) were independent prognostic risk factors for patients in stage T3,while postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy(HR=0.351) was a protective factor for prognosis. There was no statistically significant difference in survival between patients with stage T3a and T3b who underwent hepatic wedge resection and liver segment or major resection (P=0.402). For patients with stage T3c and T3d with liver invasion,the survival difference after hepatic wedge resection and segmental or major resection was statistically significant (P=0.008). Conclusion: The modified T3 sub-staging system based on the depth and direction of tumor invasion maybe helpful to further stratify the prognosis of patients with gallbladder cancer.

New race-free creatinine- and cystatin C-based equations for the estimation of glomerular filtration rate and association with cardiovascular mortality in the AtheroGene study

Renal function is associated with cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. Among equations used to eGFR, CKD-EPI equations show more accurate association with cardiovascular risk and mortality than MDRD. Recently, new CKD-EPI equations were proposed which do not include race and would be considered sufficiently accurate to estimate eGFR in clinical practice. It is unknown if these new race-free equations are comparably well associated with cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk individuals. The analysis was performed in the AtheroGene Study cohort including patients at high cardiovascular risk. eGFR was determined using the established as well as the recently developed formulas which are calculated without the otherwise existing coefficient for black race. The outcome was cardiovascular death. Analyses included Cox-proportional hazard regression and area-under-the-curve calculation. The analysis included 2089 patients followed up for a median of 3.8 years with a maximum of 6.9 years, corresponding to an overall period of 7701 patient-years. Cardiovascular death occurred in 93 (4.45%), corresponding to an annualized rate of 1.2/100 person-years. In all Cox regression analyses, the estimated adjusted GFR was an independent predictor of cardiovascular death. The equations which included cystatin C showed higher C-index compared to those which did not include cystatin C (0.75-0.76 vs. 0.71, respectively). The equations for the estimation of eGFR which include cystatin C are better associated with cardiovascular death compared to the race-free equations which include only creatinine. This finding adds on the related literature which supports the elimination of race in GFR-estimating equations, and promotion of the use of cystatin C.

Changes in Sleep Patterns, Genetic Susceptibility, and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in China

Importance

The associations of changes in sleep patterns with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) are not fully elucidated, and whether these associations are modified by genetic susceptibility remains unknown.

Objectives

To investigate the associations of 5-year changes in sleep patterns with incident CVD and whether genetic susceptibility modifies these associations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study of the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort was conducted from 2008 to 2018 in China. Eligible participants included those with complete sleep information at baseline survey (2008-2010) and the first follow-up survey (2013); participants who had no CVD or cancer in 2013 were prospectively assessed until 2018. Statistical analysis was performed in November 2023.

Exposures

Five-year changes in sleep patterns (determined by bedtime, sleep duration, sleep quality, and midday napping) between 2008 and 2013, and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident CVD, CHD, and stroke were identified from 2013 to 2018. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

Results

Among 15 306 individuals (mean [SD] age, 65.8 [7.4] years; 8858 [57.9%] female and 6448 male [42.1%]), 5474 (35.78%) had persistent unfavorable sleep patterns and 3946 (25.8%) had persistent favorable sleep patterns. A total of 3669 incident CVD cases were documented, including 2986 CHD cases and 683 stroke cases, over a mean (SD) follow-up of 4.9 (1.5) years. Compared with those with persistent unfavorable sleep patterns, individuals with persistent favorable sleep patterns over 5 years had lower risks of incident CVD (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.87), CHD (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76-0.92), and stroke (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.54-0.82) in the subsequent 5-year period. No significant effect modification by PRS was observed for sleep pattern change and CHD or stroke risk. However, sleep pattern changes and PRS were jointly associated with the CHD and stroke risk in a dose-dependent manner, with the lowest risk being among those with persistent favorable sleep patterns combined with low PRS (HR for CHD, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52-0.82 and HR for stroke, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.29-0.79).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of middle-aged and older Chinese adults, individuals with persistent favorable sleep patterns had a lower CVD risk, even among those with higher genetic risk. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining favorable sleep patterns for CVD prevention.

Grilling the data: application of specification curve analysis to red meat and all-cause mortality

OBJECTIVES

To present an application of specification curve analysis-a novel analytic method that involves defining and implementing all plausible and valid analytic approaches for addressing a research question-to nutritional epidemiology.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We reviewed all observational studies addressing the effect of red meat on all-cause mortality, sourced from a published systematic review, and documented variations in analytic methods (eg, choice of model, covariates, etc.). We enumerated all defensible combinations of analytic choices to produce a comprehensive list of all the ways in which the data may reasonably be analyzed. We applied specification curve analysis to data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007 to 2014 to investigate the effect of unprocessed red meat on all-cause mortality. The specification curve analysis used a random sample of all reasonable analytic specifications we sourced from primary studies.

RESULTS

Among 15 publications reporting on 24 cohorts included in the systematic review on red meat and all-cause mortality, we identified 70 unique analytic methods, each including different analytic models, covariates, and operationalizations of red meat (eg, continuous vs quantiles). We applied specification curve analysis to National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, including 10,661 participants. Our specification curve analysis included 1208 unique analytic specifications, of which 435 (36.0%) yielded a hazard ratio equal to or more than 1 for the effect of red meat on all-cause mortality and 773 (64.0%) less than 1. The specification curve analysis yielded a median hazard ratio of 0.94 (interquartile range: 0.83-1.05). Forty-eight specifications (3.97%) were statistically significant, 40 of which indicated unprocessed red meat to reduce all-cause mortality and eight of which indicated red meat to increase mortality.

CONCLUSION

We show that the application of specification curve analysis to nutritional epidemiology is feasible and presents an innovative solution to analytic flexibility.

The Association of HIV-Specific Risk Factors with Cardiovascular Events in Addition to Traditional Risk Factors in People Living with HIV

Traditional cardiovascular risk scores underestimate the incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in people living with HIV (PLH). This study compared the effect of HIV-specific cardiovascular risk factors (CRF) with traditional CRF at baseline for their association with incident CVD in PLH. The ongoing, prospective HIV HEART Aging (HIVH) study assesses CVD in PLH in the German Ruhr Area since 2004. PLH from the HIVH study with at least 5 years of follow-up were examined with the help of Cox proportional hazards models using inverse probability-of-censoring weights. The models were adjusted for age and sex. The obtained hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence limits (CL) assessed the strength of the associations between CRF and CVD. One thousand two hundred forty-three individuals (male 1,040, female 203; mean age of 43 ± 10 years) with 116 incident CVD events were analyzed. After adjusting for the traditional CRF, the HIV-specific CRF "a history of AIDS" and "higher age at diagnosis of HIV infection" (per 10 years) were associated with an increased CVD risk (HR 1.55, 95% CL: 1.05-2.28 and HR 1.55, 95% CL: 1.09-1.22, respectively). Higher CD4/CD8 ratio (per standard deviation), longer cumulative duration of antiretroviral therapies, and longer duration of HIV infection (per 10 years) showed indications for a decreased CVD risk (HR 0.75, 95% CL: 0.58-0.97, HR 0.71, 95% CL: 0.41-1.23, and HR 0.63, 95% CL: 0.44-0.90, respectively). Out of the traditional CRF, current smoking showed the strongest impact on CVD risk (HR 3.12, 95% CL: 2.06-4.74). In conclusion, HIV-specific factors, such as history of AIDS and CD4/CD8 ratio, were independently associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. Traditional CRF maintained a major effect on CVD. Clinical Trials Number (NCT04330287).