Deficient reporting and interpretation of non-inferiority randomized clinical trials in HIV patients: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Non-inferiority (NI) randomized clinical trials (RCTs) commonly evaluate efficacy of new antiretroviral (ARV) drugs in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients. Their reporting and interpretation have not been systematically evaluated. We evaluated the reporting of NI RCTs in HIV patients according to the CONSORT statement and assessed the degree of misinterpretation of RCTs when NI was inconclusive or not established.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus were reviewed until December 2011. Selection and extraction was performed independently by three reviewers.

RESULTS

Of the 42 RCTs (n = 21,919; range 41-3,316) selected, 23 were in ARV-naïve and 19 in ARV-experienced patients. Twenty-seven (64%) RCTs provided information about prior RCTs of the active comparator, and 37 (88%) used 2-sided CIs. Two thirds of trials used a NI margin between 10 and 12%, although only 12 explained the method to determine it. Blinding was used in 9 studies only. The main conclusion was based on both intention-to-treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) analyses in 5 trials, on PP analysis only in 4 studies, and on ITT only in 31 studies. Eleven of 16 studies with NI inconclusive or not established highlighted NI or equivalence, and distracted readers with positive secondary results.

CONCLUSIONS

There is poor reporting and interpretation of NI RCTs performed in HIV patients. Maximizing the reporting of the method of NI margin determination, use of blinding and both ITT and PP analyses, and interpreting negative NI according to actual primary findings will improve the understanding of results and their translation into clinical practice.

Nutraceutical approaches to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): A position paper from the International Lipid Expert Panel (ILEP)

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) is a common condition affecting around 10-25% of the general adult population, 15% of children, and even > 50% of individuals who have type 2 diabetes mellitus. It is a major cause of liver-related morbidity, and cardiovascular (CV) mortality is a common cause of death. In addition to being the initial step of irreversible alterations of the liver parenchyma causing cirrhosis, about 1/6 of those who develop NASH are at risk also developing CV disease (CVD). More recently the acronym MAFLD (Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease) has been preferred by many European and US specialists, providing a clearer message on the metabolic etiology of the disease. The suggestions for the management of NAFLD are like those recommended by guidelines for CVD prevention. In this context, the general approach is to prescribe physical activity and dietary changes the effect weight loss. Lifestyle change in the NAFLD patient has been supplemented in some by the use of nutraceuticals, but the evidence based for these remains uncertain. The aim of this Position Paper was to summarize the clinical evidence relating to the effect of nutraceuticals on NAFLD-related parameters. Our reading of the data is that whilst many nutraceuticals have been studied in relation to NAFLD, none have sufficient evidence to recommend their routine use; robust trials are required to appropriately address efficacy and safety.

Family history of aortic disease predicts disease patterns and progression and is a significant influence on management strategies for patients and their relatives

BACKGROUND

While a positive family history (FH) is a known risk factor for developing an aneurysm, its association with the extent of disease has not been established. We evaluated the influence of a FH of aortic disease with respect to the pattern and distribution of aortic aneurysms in a given patient.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From November 1999 to November 2011, 1263 patients were enrolled in physician-sponsored endovascular device trials to treat aortic aneurysms. Of the 555 patients who were alive and returning for follow-up, we obtained 426 (77%) family histories. Three-dimensional imaging studies were used to identify the presence of aneurysms; 36% (155/426) of patients had a FH of aortic aneurysms and 5% (21/155) had isolated intracranial aneurysms. A logistic regression model was used to compare aortic morphology between patients with a positive or negative FH for aneurysms. Patients with a positive FH of aortic aneurysms were younger at their initial aneurysm (63 vs 70 years; P < .0001), more frequently had proximal aortic involvement (root: odds ratio [OR], 5.4; P < .0001; ascending: OR, 2.9; P < .001; thoracic: OR, 2.2; P = .01) with over 50% of FH patients ultimately developing suprarenal aortic involvement (P = .0001) and had a greater incidence of bilateral iliac artery aneurysm (OR, 1.8; P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

FH is an important tool that provides insight into the expected behavior of the untreated aorta and has significant implications for the development of treatment strategies. These findings should be used to guide patient's management with regard to treatment, follow-up paradigms, genetic testing, and screening of other family members.

QTc prolongation in COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, azithromycin, or lopinavir/ritonavir: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

Hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, azithromycin, and lopinavir/ritonavir are drugs that were used for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) during the early pandemic period. It is well‐known that these agents can prolong the QTc interval and potentially induce Torsades de Pointes (TdP). We aim to assess the prevalence and risk of QTc prolongation and arrhythmic events in COVID‐19 patients treated with these drugs.

Methods

We searched electronic databases from inception to September 30, 2020 for studies reporting peak QTc ≥500 ms, peak QTc change ≥60 ms, peak QTc interval, peak change of QTc interval, ventricular arrhythmias, TdP, sudden cardiac death, or atrioventricular block (AVB). All meta‐analyses were conducted using a random‐effects model.

Results

Forty‐seven studies (three case series, 35 cohorts, and nine randomized controlled trials [RCTs]) involving 13 087 patients were included. The pooled prevalence of peak QTc ≥500 ms was 9% (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 3%–18%) and 8% (95%CI, 3%–14%) in patients who received hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine alone or in combination with azithromycin, respectively. Likewise, the use of hydroxychloroquine (risk ratio [RR], 2.68; 95%CI, 1.56–4.60) and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin (RR, 3.28; 95%CI, 1.16–9.30) was associated with an increased risk of QTc prolongation compared to no treatment. Ventricular arrhythmias, TdP, sudden cardiac death, and AVB were reported in <1% of patients across treatment groups. The only two studies that reported individual data of lopinavir/ritonavir found no cases of QTc prolongation.

Conclusions

COVID‐19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine with or without azithromycin had a relatively high prevalence and risk of QTc prolongation. However, the prevalence of arrhythmic events was very low, probably due to underreporting. The limited information about lopinavir/ritonavir showed that it does not prolong the QTc interval.

Does Targeted Temperature Management Improve Neurological Outcome in Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (ECPR)?

PURPOSE

Targeted temperature management (TTM) is a standard of care in patients after cardiac arrest for neuroprotection. Currently, the effectiveness and efficacy of TTM after extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is unknown. We aimed to compare neurological and survival outcomes between TTM vs non-TTM in patients undergoing ECPR for refractory cardiac arrest.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and 5 other databases for randomized controlled trials and observational studies reporting neurological outcomes or survival in adult patients undergoing ECPR with or without TTM. Good neurological outcome was defined as cerebral performance category <3. Two independent reviewers extracted the data. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to pool data.

RESULTS

We included 35 studies (n = 2,643) with the median age of 56 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 52-59). The median time from collapse to ECMO cannulation was 58 minutes (IQR: 49-82) and the median ECMO duration was 3 days (IQR: 2.0-4.1). Of 2,643, 1,329 (50.3%) patients received TTM and 1,314 (49.7%) did not. There was no difference in the frequency of good neurological outcome at any time between TTM (29%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 23%-36%) vs. without TTM (19%, 95% CI: 9%-31%) in patients with ECPR (P = 0.09). Similarly, there was no difference in overall survival between patients with TTM (30%, 95% CI: 22%-39%) vs. without TTM (24%, 95% CI: 14%-34%) (P = 0.31). A cumulative meta-analysis by publication year showed improved neurological and survival outcomes over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Among ECPR patients, survival and neurological outcome were not different between those with TTM vs. without TTM. Our study suggests that neurological and survival outcome are improving over time as ECPR therapy is more widely used. Our results were limited by the heterogeneity of included studies and further research with granular temperature data is necessary to assess the benefit and risk of TTM in ECPR population.

Accuracy of transthoracic echocardiography for the measurement of the ascending aorta: comparison with transesophageal echocardiography

BACKGROUND

There has been a substantial increase in the number of imaging studies performed to assess thoracic aortic pathology. We sought to determine the accuracy of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) compared to transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) for measuring ascending aortic size.

HYPOTHESIS

Transthoracic echocardiography is reasonably accurate for assessing ascending aortic dimension.

METHODS

Fifty-two patients with or without aortic disease underwent both TTE with nonstandard views and TEE. The ascending aorta was measured at 4 levels by 2 blinded observers for each modality. Pearson's correlation coefficients were determined and Bland-Altman plots and analyses were constructed. Inter- and intraobserver variability was determined in a random subgroup of patients.

RESULTS

The mean age of the group was 65.5 years old and 15% had aortic dilation >4.0 cm. A strong positive correlation between the 2 imaging modalities was seen at all levels with the highest correlation for the maximum diameter of the ascending aorta (r = 0.936, P < 0.0001). Interobserver and intraobserver variability showed a good intraclass correlation among readers and among the same reader at all levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Transthoracic echocardiography using nonstandard imaging windows is accurate in comparison to TEE for measurement of the ascending aorta at multiple levels in patients with or without aortic pathology. The findings of this study provide support for selected serial follow-up of patients with aortic disease by TTE only.

Efficacy of 5-nitroimidazoles for the treatment of giardiasis: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials

Background

Giardiasis is one of the most common causes of diarrheal disease worldwide and 5-nitroimidazoles (5-NI) are the most commonly prescribed drugs for the treatment of giardiasis. We evaluated the efficacy of 5-nitroimidazoles (5-NI) in the treatment of giardiasis in a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a comprehensive literature search in PubMed-Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and Cochrane Library for RCTs evaluating the efficacy of 5-NI vs. control (placebo or active treatment) on parasitological cure in patients with parasitologically-demonstrated giardiasis. The search was performed in May 2013 with no language restriction by two authors independently. The efficacy outcome was parasitological cure, and harmful outcomes were abdominal pain, bitter or metallic taste, and headache. We included 30 RCTs (n = 3,930). There was a significant and slightly higher response rate with 5-NI in giardiasis treatment (RR 1.06, 95%CI 1.02–1.11, p = 0.005). There was high heterogeneity among studies (I² = 72%). The response rates for metronidazole, tinidazole and secnidazole were similar (RR 1.05, 95%CI 1.01–1.09, p = 0.01; RR 1.32 95%CI 1.10–1.59, p = 0.003; and RR 1.18 95%CI 0.93–1.449, p = 0.18, respectively). On subgroup analyses, the response rates did not vary substantially and high heterogeneity persisted (I² = 57%–80%). Harmful outcomes were uncommon, and 5-NIs were associated with lower risk of abdominal pain, and higher risk of both bitter or metallic taste and headache.

Conclusions

Studies investigating the efficacy of 5-NI in giardiasis treatment are highly heterogeneous. 5-NIs have a slightly better efficacy and worse profile for mild harmful outcomes in the treatment of giardiasis in comparison to controls. Larger high quality RCTs are needed to further assess efficacy and safety profiles of 5-NI.

Giardiasis is a major diarrheal disease with worldwide distribution. 5-nitroimidazoles, which include metronidazole and tinidazole, are the most commonly used drugs in the treatment of giardiasis. In recent years, many other drugs with variable efficacies and adverse effects have been proposed for the treatment of giardiasis. No systematic review has evaluated efficacy of 5-nitroimidazoles as a group in comparison to the other antigiardial drugs. In this context, we performed a systematic review of the literature to identify randomized controlled trials comparing the efficacies of 5-nitroimidazoles with a control drug with the aim of assessing effectiveness of 5-nitroimidazoles in the treatment of giardiasis. Four research databases were searched; 30 trials with 3,930 subjects met our inclusion criteria. Results show that there was a high variation of study outcomes between included studies. 5-nitroimidazoles were associated with higher giardiasis cure rates than controls; also, 5-nitroimidazoles are associated with lower risk of abdominal pain, and higher risks of bitter or metallic taste and headache than controls.

Prevalence and factors associated with food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

We assessed the prevalence of food insecurity (FI) and its associated factors in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) early during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We performed secondary data analysis of a survey conducted by Facebook and the University of Maryland. We included adults surveyed from April to May 2020. FI was measured by concerns about having enough to eat during the following week. Sociodemographic, mental health, and COVID-19-related variables were collected. We performed generalized Poisson regressions models considering the complex sampling design. We estimated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios with their 95% confidence intervals.

Results

We included 1,324,272 adults; 50.5% were female, 42.9% were under 35 years old, 78.9% lived in a city, and 18.6% had COVID-19 symptoms. The prevalence of food insecurity in LAC was 75.7% (n = 1,016,841), with Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti with 90.8%, 86.7%, and 85.5%, respectively, showing the highest prevalence. Gender, area of residence, presence of COVID-19 symptoms, and fear of getting seriously ill or that a family member gets seriously ill from COVID-19 were associated with a higher prevalence of food insecurity. In contrast, increasing age was associated with a lower prevalence.

Conclusion

The prevalence of food insecurity during the first stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in LAC was high and was associated with sociodemographic and COVID-19-related variables.

Surgical management of bilateral synchronous kidney tumors: functional and oncological outcomes

PURPOSE

We evaluated renal functional and oncological outcomes after sequential partial nephrectomy and radical nephrectomy in patients with bilateral synchronous kidney tumors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 220 patients treated from June 1994 to July 2008 were included in the study. Estimated glomerular filtration rate, and overall, cancer specific and recurrence-free survival were assessed.

RESULTS

Patients underwent sequential partial nephrectomy (134), partial nephrectomy followed by radical nephrectomy (60) or radical nephrectomy followed by partial nephrectomy (26). Final estimated glomerular filtration rate after bilateral surgery was 59, 36 and 35 ml/minute/1.73 m(2) in these 3 groups, respectively (p <0.001). The order in which partial nephrectomy and radical nephrectomy were conducted did not affect functional outcomes. Overall survival of patients with bilateral cancer was 86% at 5 years and 71% at 10 years, cancer specific survival was 96% at 5 and 10 years, and recurrence-free survival was 73% at 5 years and 44% at 10 years. Overall survival was decreased in patients with tumors larger than 7 cm (p = 0.003). Patients with postoperative stage III or greater chronic kidney disease had decreased overall survival due to noncancer causes (p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients treated with sequential surgery for bilateral synchronous kidney tumors have 5 and 10-year oncological outcomes comparable to those of patients with unilateral kidney cancer. Decreased overall survival was significantly associated with tumor size larger than 7 cm and postoperative stage III or greater chronic kidney disease. Nephron sparing surgery should be conducted for all amenable bilateral kidney masses given the negative impact of renal functional decline on overall survival.

Efficacy and harms of tocilizumab for the treatment of COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

We systematically assessed benefits and harms of tocilizumab (TCZ), which is an antibody blocking IL-6 receptors, in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Five electronic databases and two preprint webpages were searched until March 4, 2021. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) cohorts assessing TCZ effects in hospitalized, COVID-19 adult patients were included. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, clinical worsening, clinical improvement, need for mechanical ventilation, and adverse events (AE). Inverse variance random-effects meta-analyses were performed with quality of evidence (QoE) evaluated using GRADE methodology.

RESULTS

Nine RCTs (n = 7,021) and nine IPTW cohorts (n = 7,796) were included. TCZ significantly reduced all-cause mortality in RCTs (RR 0.89, 95%CI 0.81-0.98, p = 0.03; moderate QoE) and non-significantly in cohorts (RR 0.67, 95%CI 0.44-1.02, p = 0.08; very low QoE) vs. control (standard of care [SOC] or placebo). TCZ significantly reduced the need for mechanical ventilation (RR 0.80, 95%CI 0.71-0.90, p = 0.001; moderate QoE) and length of stay (MD -1.92 days, 95%CI -3.46 to -0.38, p = 0.01; low QoE) vs. control in RCTs. There was no significant difference in clinical improvement or worsening between treatments. AEs, severe AEs, bleeding and thrombotic events were similar between arms in RCTs, but there was higher neutropenia risk with TCZ (very low QoE). Subgroup analyses by disease severity or risk of bias (RoB) were consistent with main analyses. Quality of evidence was moderate to very low in both RCTs and cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

In comparison to SOC or placebo, TCZ reduced all-cause mortality in all studies and reduced mechanical ventilation and length of stay in RCTs in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Other clinical outcomes were not significantly impacted. TCZ did not have effect on AEs, except a significant increased neutropenia risk in RCTs. TCZ has a potential role in the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Prevalence and Outcome of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Traumatic Brain Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with increased mortality. Information on the prevalence of ARDS and its neurological outcome after TBI is sparse. We aimed to systematically review the prevalence, risk factors, and outcome of ARDS in TBI population.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and four other databases (Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science Core Collection, and Scopus) from inception to July 6, 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies in patients older than 18 years old.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two independent reviewers extracted the data. Study quality was assessed by the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool for RCTs, the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for cohort and case-control studies. Good neurological outcome was defined as Glasgow Outcome Scale ≥ 4. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate pooled outcome prevalence and their 95% confidence intervals (CI).

DATA SYNTHESIS

We included 20 studies (n = 2830) with median age of 44 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 35-47, 64% male) and 79% (n = 2237) suffered severe TBI. In meta-analysis, 19% patients (95% CI = 0.13-0.27, I2 = 93%) had ARDS after TBI. The median time from TBI to ARDS was 3 days (IQR = 2-5). Overall survival at discharge for the TBI cohort was 70% (95% CI = 0.64-0.75; I2 = 85%) and good neurological outcome at any time was achieved in 31% of TBI patients (95% CI = 0.23-0.40; I2 = 88%). TBI cohort without ARDS had higher survival (67% vs. 57%, p = 0.01) and good neurological outcomes (34% vs. 23%, p = 0.02) compared to those with ARDS. We did not find any specific risk factors for developing ARDS.

CONCLUSION

In this meta-analysis, approximately one in five patients had ARDS shortly after TBI with the median time of 3 days. The presence of ARDS was associated with worse neurological outcome and mortality in TBI. Further research on prevention and intervention strategy of TBI-associated ARDS is warranted.

Effect of low-sodium salt substitutes on blood pressure, detected hypertension, stroke and mortality

OBJECTIVE

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess the efficacy of low-sodium salt substitutes (LSSS) as a potential intervention to reduce cardiovascular (CV) diseases.

METHODS

Five engines and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from inception to May 2018. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) enrolling adult hypertensive or general populations that compared detected hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), overall mortality, stroke and other CV risk factors in those receiving LSSS versus regular salt were included. Effects were expressed as risk ratios or mean differences (MD) and their 95% CIs. Quality of evidence assessment followed GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) methodology.

RESULTS

21 RCTs (15 in hypertensive (n=2016), 2 in normotensive (n=163) and 4 in mixed populations (n=5224)) were evaluated. LSSS formulations were heterogeneous. Effects were similar across hypertensive, normotensive and mixed populations. LSSS decreased SBP (MD -7.81 mm Hg, 95% CI -9.47 to -6.15, p<0.00001) and DBP (MD -3.96 mm Hg, 95% CI -5.17 to -2.74, p<0.00001) compared with control. Significant increases in urinary potassium (MD 11.46 mmol/day, 95% CI 8.36 to 14.55, p<0.00001) and calcium excretion (MD 2.39 mmol/day, 95% CI 0.52 to 4.26, p=0.01) and decreases in urinary sodium excretion (MD -35.82 mmol/day, 95% CI -57.35 to -14.29, p=0.001) were observed. Differences in detected hypertension, overall mortality, total cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose or BMI were not significant. Quality of evidence was low to very low for most of outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

LSSS significantly decreased SBP and DBP. There was no effect for detected hypertension, overall mortality and intermediate outcomes. Large, long-term RCTs are necessary to clarify salt substitute effects on clinical outcomes.

Sliding scale insulin for non-critically ill hospitalised adults with diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder resulting from a defect in insulin secretion, function, or both. Hyperglycaemia in non-critically ill hospitalised people is associated with poor clinical outcomes (infections, prolonged hospital stay, poor wound healing, higher morbidity and mortality). In the hospital setting people diagnosed with diabetes receive insulin therapy as part of their treatment in order to achieve metabolic control. However, insulin therapy can be provided by different strategies (sliding scale insulin (SSI), basal-bolus insulin, and other modalities). Sliding scale insulin is currently the most commonly used method, however there is uncertainty about which strategy provides the best patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of SSI for non-critically ill hospitalised adults with diabetes mellitus.

SEARCH METHODS

We identified eligible trials by searching MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, and the Cochrane Library. We searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov trial registers. The date of the last search for all databases was December 2017. We also examined reference lists of identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews, and contacted trial authors.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included RCTs comparing SSI with other strategies for glycaemic control in non-critically ill hospitalised adult participants of any sex with diabetes mellitus.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data, assessed trials for risk of bias, and evaluated the overall certainty of evidence utilising the GRADE instrument. We synthesised data using a random-effects model meta-analysis with 95% prediction intervals, if possible, or descriptive analysis, as appropriate.

MAIN RESULTS

Of 720 records screened, we included eight trials that randomised 1048 participants with type 2 diabetes (387 SSI participants and 615 participants in comparator groups were available for final analysis). We included non-critically ill medical and surgical adults with the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus. The mean follow-up time was measured by the mean length of hospital stay and ranged between five and 24 days. The mean age of participants was 44.5 years to 71 years.Overall, we judged the risk of bias on the trial level as unclear for selection bias, high for outcome-related performance and detection bias with regard to hypoglycaemic episodes, other adverse events, and mean glucose levels, and low for all-cause mortality and length of hospital stay. Attrition bias was low for all outcome measures.Six trials compared SSI with a basal-bolus insulin scheme, three of which investigating 64% of all participants in this category also applying an SSI approach in the bolus comparator part. One trial had a basal insulin-only comparator arm, and the remaining trial used continuous insulin infusion as the comparator. For our main comparison of SSI versus basal-bolus insulin, the results were as follows. Four trials reported mortality data. One out of 268 participants in the SSI group (0.3%) compared with two out of 334 participants in the basal-bolus group (0.6%) died (low-certainty evidence). Severe hypoglycaemic episodes, defined as blood glucose levels below 40 mg/dL (2.2 mmol/L), showed a risk ratio (RR) of 0.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.05 to 1.00; P = 0.05; 5 trials; 667 participants; very low-certainty evidence. The 95% prediction interval ranged between 0.02 and 2.57. All nine severe hypoglycaemic episodes were observed among the 369 participants on basal-bolus insulin (2.4%). The mean length of hospital stay was 0.5 days longer for the SSI group, 95% CI -0.5 to 1.4; P = 0.32; 6 trials; 717 participants; very low-certainty evidence. The 95% prediction interval ranged between -1.7 days and 2.7 days. Adverse events other than hypoglycaemic episodes, such as postoperative infections, showed a RR of 1.16, 95% CI 0.25 to 5.37; P = 0.85; 3 trials; 481 participants; very low-certainty evidence. The mean blood glucose levels ranged across basal-bolus groups from 156 mg/dL (8.7 mmol/L) to 221 mg/dL (12.3 mmol/L). The mean blood glucose level in the SSI groups was 14.8 mg/dL (0.8 mmol/L) higher (95% CI 7.8 (0.4) to 21.8 (1.2); P < 0.001; 6 trials; 717 participants; low-certainty evidence). The 95% prediction interval ranged between -3.6 mg/dL (-0.2 mmol/L) and 33.2 mg/dL (1.8 mmol/L). No trial reported on diabetes-related mortality or socioeconomic effects.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We are uncertain which insulin strategy (SSI or basal-bolus insulin) is best for non-critically hospitalised adults with diabetes mellitus. A basal-bolus insulin strategy in these patients might result in better short-term glycaemic control but could increase the risk for severe hypoglycaemic episodes. The certainty of the body of evidence comparing SSI with basal-bolus insulin was low to very low and needs to be improved by adequately performed, well-powered RCTs in different hospital environments with well-educated medical staff using identical short-acting insulins in both intervention and comparator arms to compare the rigid SSI approach with flexible insulin application strategies.

The effect of statins on cardiovascular outcomes by smoking status: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Smoking is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. The impact of statin therapy on CVD risk by smoking status has not been fully investigated. Therefore we assessed the impact of statin therapy on CVD outcomes by smoking status through a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis of available randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The literature search included EMBASE, ProQuest, CINAHL and PUBMED databases to 30 January 2016 to identify RCTs that investigated the effect of statin therapy on cumulative incidence of major CVD endpoints (e.g. non-fatal myocardial infarction, revascularization, unstable angina, and stroke). Relative risks (RR) ratios were calculated from the number of events in different treatment groups for both smokers and non-smokers. Finally 11 trials with 89,604 individuals were included. The number of smokers and non-smokers in the statin groups of the analyzed studies was 8826 and 36,090, respectively. The RR for major CV events was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.81; p<0.001) in nonsmokers and 0.72 (95%CI: 0.64-0.81; p<0.001) in smokers. Moderate to high heterogeneity was observed both in non-smokers (I²=77.1%, p<0.001) and in smokers (I²=51.6%, p=0.024) groups. Smokers seemed to benefit slightly more from statins than non-smokers according to the number needed to treat (NNT) analysis (23.5 vs 26.8) based on RRs applied to the control event rates. The number of avoided events per 1000 individuals was 42.5 (95%CI: 28.9-54.6) in smokers and 37.3 (95%CI: 27.2-46.4) in non-smokers. In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggests that the effect of statins on CVD is similar for smokers and non-smokers, but in terms of NNTs and number of avoided events, smokers seem to benefit more although non-significantly.

Index clinical manifestation of venous thromboembolism predicts early recurrence type and frequency: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Observational studies suggest index clinical manifestation of venous thromboembolism (VTE) predicts recurrence type. Data regarding the association between index manifestation and recurrence rates are conflicting.

OBJECTIVES

To perform a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to determine the type and frequency of recurrent VTE (rVTE) in persons after an index deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE).

PATIENTS/METHODS

We searched bibliographic databases for RCTs of acute (early) treatment of rVTE in persons with an index DVT or PE (±DVT), enrolling ≥ 50 subjects anticoagulated ≥ 3-months and reporting types of rVTE. We pooled (random-effects) the proportion of rVTEs that were DVTs, PEs, and fatal PEs, the proportion of recurrent PEs that were fatal, and absolute rVTE rates.

RESULTS

In nine RCTs (N = 13 640; 413 rVTEs) evaluating persons with an index PE; 66% (95% CI, 60-72%) of rVTEs were PE and 27% (95% CI, 22-33%) were fatal PE. Among 25 RCTs (N = 17 340; 692 rVTEs) evaluating persons with an index DVT, 36% (95% CI, 29-44%) experienced a recurrent PE and 10% (95% CI, 7-13%) a fatal PE. Recurrent PEs following an index PE had a higher fatality rate than after an index DVT (41%; 95% CI, 33-48% vs. 25%; 95% CI, 18-33%; P = 0.007). The rVTE rate was higher following an index DVT compared with a PE (2.6%; 95% CI, 1.6-3.8% vs. 4.9%; 95% CI, 4.0-6.0%; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis suggests most rVTEs will be the same type as the index event. While index DVTs are associated with a higher rVTE rate than index PEs; recurrent PEs are associated with high fatality.

A systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis of specialist services and adrenaline auto-injectors in anaphylaxis

BACKGROUND

Anaphylaxis is a severe, life-threatening generalised or systemic hypersensitivity reaction with high mortality. Specialist services (SSs) are believed to reduce anaphylaxis recurrence and improve use of adrenaline injectors (AIs), which can reduce mortality if used correctly and in time.

OBJECTIVES

To review the evidence on which persons are at high risk of anaphylactic episodes, the effects of history-taking (including signs, symptoms and physical examination) for anaphylaxis, and when (suspected) patients should be referred. To assess the cost-effectiveness of SS compared with standard care (SC) with or without prescription of AIs.

DATA SOURCES

In order to assess the clinical effectiveness, 10 databases [Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Health Technology Assessment (HTA), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Science Citation Index (SCI), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), EMBASE, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, from inception up to March 2011] were searched without data restriction in order to identify relevant studies [randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials, observational studies, prognostic studies using a multivariate model] written in English.

REVIEW METHODS

Standard review methods were applied for the assessment of clinical effectiveness. A Markov model, validated by clinical experts, was constructed, which modelled anaphylaxis according to trigger: either food, drug, insect or idiopathic. Anaphylaxis mortality was modelled as a function of time to die and time for emergency response. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis on key parameters was performed.

RESULTS

From the systematic review, 11,058 references were identified by the searches for studies assessing the clinical effectiveness. In total, 107 papers were obtained, and five prospective observational studies, including 1725 patients, were included. These studies estimated the risk of recurrence to be between 30% and 42.8%. In children (< 12 years), an overall recurrence of 27% was reported, with food being the most frequent allergen (71%). From the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), SC with injectors was dominated by SS with or without injectors. SS with no injectors would be cost-effective if the threshold for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was greater than about £ 740 and with injectors would be cost-effective if the threshold was > £ 1800. These results were robust to all sensitivity analyses except at relatively extreme values of a small number of parameters.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations of the study include the low yield from the systematic review; in particular there were no good-quality studies of either SSs or AI effectiveness. This implied a great reliance on expert opinion in the CEA. However, this was appropriately addressed using sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Only five observational studies assessing clinical effectiveness were identified. Owing to the lack of good data to inform the effectiveness of anaphylaxis intervention, we recommend considerations of RCTs or at least well-designed observational studies of the components of care in SSs. The results of the CEA showed that SS with AIs was cost-effective at a threshold of £ 20,000 per QALY. More well-designed prospective studies on the effectiveness of SSs are needed to confirm these findings.

Comparison of adenoma detection rate in Hispanics and whites undergoing first screening colonoscopy: a retrospective chart review

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend screening colonoscopy beginning at age 50 in the average-risk population. Race has been shown to influence the risk of colorectal cancer, thus leading to the recommendation of initiating screening in blacks at the age of 45. Few data exist on the prevalence of colon polyps among U.S. Hispanics.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the adenoma detection rate (ADR) between Hispanics and whites undergoing a first screening colonoscopy at our referral center.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Single endoscopy unit, tertiary care teaching hospital.

PATIENTS

Patients 50 years of age or older undergoing their first screening colonoscopy whose race was determined as white or Hispanic from June 2007 to August 2010.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENT

ADR by race.

RESULTS

There was no statistically significant difference in the ADR among Hispanics and whites (45% and 48%, respectively; P = .2). No difference was found when comparing the ADR in Hispanic and white males (50% and 55%, respectively; P = .2), Hispanic and white females (40% in both groups), or in the 50- to 59-year-old subgroup (42% in Hispanics, 45% in whites, P = .4). There was no difference in the prevalence of advanced adenomas (3% in Hispanics, 4% in whites, P = .3). The prevalence of proximal polyps in Hispanics and whites was similar (18% and 19%, respectively, P = .8).

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective design, self-identification of race/ethnicity, underrepresentation of certain Hispanic subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a similar ADR among Hispanics and whites undergoing their first screening colonoscopy. These findings have important implications for colorectal cancer screening recommendations, suggesting that the current guidelines are appropriate for Hispanics.

Disease State Transition Probabilities Across the Spectrum of NAFLD: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Paired Biopsy or Imaging Studies

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the rates of progression to and regression of nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and fibrosis in adults with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

We searched PubMed/Medline and 4 other databases from 1985 through 2020. We included observational studies and randomized controlled trials in any language that used liver biopsy or imaging to diagnose NAFLD in adults with a follow-up period ≥48 weeks. Rates were calculated as incident cases per 100 person-years and pooled using the random-effects Poisson distribution model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic.

RESULTS

We screened 9744 articles and included 54 studies involving 26,738 patients. Among observational studies, 20% of healthy adults developed NAFL (incidence rate, 4.8/100 person-years) while 21% of people with fatty liver had resolution of NAFL (incidence rate, 2.4/100 person-years) after a median of approximately 4.5 years. In addition, 31% of patients developed NASH after 4.7 years (incidence rate, 7.4/100 person-years), whereas in 29% of those with NASH, resolution occurred after a median of 3.5 years (incidence rate, 5.1/100 person-years). Time to progress by 1 fibrosis stage was 9.9, 10.3, 13.3, and 22.2 years for F0, F1, F2, and F3, respectively. Time to regress by 1 stage was 21.3, 12.5, 20.4, and 40.0 years for F4, F3, F2, and F1, respectively. Rates estimated from randomized controlled trials were higher than those from observational studies.

CONCLUSIONS

In our meta-analysis, progression to NASH was more common than regression from NASH. Rates of fibrosis progression were similar across baseline stage, but patients with advanced fibrosis were more likely to regress than those with mild fibrosis.