Duration-dependent impact of cardiometabolic diseases and multimorbidity on all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective cohort study of 0.5 million participants

BACKGROUND

The association of incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) with mortality risk is rarely studied, and neither are the durations of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs). Whether the association patterns of CMD durations with mortality change as individuals progress from one CMD to CMM is unclear.

METHODS

Data from China Kadoorie Biobank of 512,720 participants aged 30-79 was used. CMM was defined as the simultaneous presence of two or more CMDs of interest, including diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the duration-dependent associations of CMDs and CMM with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. All information on exposures of interest was updated during follow-up.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 99,770 participants experienced at least one incident CMD, and 56,549 deaths were documented. Among 463,178 participants free of three CMDs at baseline, compared with no CMD during follow-up, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) between CMM and all-cause mortality, mortality from circulatory system diseases, respiratory system diseases, cancer, and other causes were 2.93 (2.80-3.07), 5.05 (4.74-5.37), 2.72 (2.35-3.14), 1.30 (1.16-1.45), and 2.30 (2.02-2.61), respectively. All CMDs exhibited a high mortality risk in the first year of diagnosis. Subsequently, with prolonged disease duration, mortality risk increased for diabetes, decreased for IHD, and sustained at a high level for stroke. With the presence of CMM, the above association estimates inflated, but the pattern of which remained.

CONCLUSION

Among Chinese adults, mortality risk increased with the number of the CMDs and changed with prolonged disease duration, the patterns of which varied among the three CMDs.

Genetic and Environmental Influences on Blood Pressure and Serum Lipids Across Age-Groups

Aging plays a crucial role in the mechanisms of the impacts of genetic and environmental factors on blood pressure and serum lipids. However, to our knowledge, how the influence of genetic and environmental factors on the correlation between blood pressure and serum lipids changes with age remains to be determined. In this study, data from the Chinese National Twin Registry (CNTR) were used. Resting blood pressure, including systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP), and fasting serum lipids, including total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglycerides (TGs) were measured in 2378 participants (1189 twin pairs). Univariate and bivariate structural equation models examined the genetic and environmental influences on blood pressure and serum lipids among three age groups. All phenotypes showed moderate to high heritability (0.37-0.59) and moderate unique environmental variance (0.30-0.44). The heritability of all phenotypes showed a decreasing trend with age. Among all phenotypes, SBP and DBP showed a significant monotonic decreasing trend. For phenotype-phenotype pairs, the phenotypic correlation (Rph) of each pair ranged from -0.04 to 0.23, and the additive genetic correlation (Ra) ranged from 0.00 to 0.36. For TC&SBP, TC&DBP, TG&SBP and TGs&DBP, both the Rph and Ra declined with age, and the Ra difference between the young group and the older adult group is statistically significant (p < .05). The unique environmental correlation (Re) of each pair did not follow any pattern with age and remained relatively stable with age. In summary, we observed that the heritability of blood pressure was affected by age. Moreover, blood pressure and serum lipids shared common genetic backgrounds, and age had an impact on the phenotypic correlation and genetic correlations.

Alcohol consumption and risks of more than 200 diseases in Chinese men

Alcohol consumption accounts for ~3 million annual deaths worldwide, but uncertainty persists about its relationships with many diseases. We investigated the associations of alcohol consumption with 207 diseases in the 12-year China Kadoorie Biobank of >512,000 adults (41% men), including 168,050 genotyped for ALDH2- rs671 and ADH1B- rs1229984 , with >1.1 million ICD-10 coded hospitalized events. At baseline, 33% of men drank alcohol regularly. Among men, alcohol intake was positively associated with 61 diseases, including 33 not defined by the World Health Organization as alcohol-related, such as cataract (n = 2,028; hazard ratio 1.21; 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.33, per 280 g per week) and gout (n = 402; 1.57, 1.33-1.86). Genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake was positively associated with established (n = 28,564; 1.14, 1.09-1.20) and new alcohol-associated (n = 16,138; 1.06, 1.01-1.12) diseases, and with specific diseases such as liver cirrhosis (n = 499; 2.30, 1.58-3.35), stroke (n = 12,176; 1.38, 1.27-1.49) and gout (n = 338; 2.33, 1.49-3.62), but not ischemic heart disease (n = 8,408; 1.04, 0.94-1.14). Among women, 2% drank alcohol resulting in low power to assess associations of self-reported alcohol intake with disease risks, but genetic findings in women suggested the excess male risks were not due to pleiotropic genotypic effects. Among Chinese men, alcohol consumption increased multiple disease risks, highlighting the need to strengthen preventive measures to reduce alcohol intake.

Pregnancy Loss in Relation to the Risks of Female-Specific Cancers in a Population-Based Cohort and Mendelian Randomization Study - China, 2004-2017

What is already known about this topic?

Limited evidence exists regarding the relationship between pregnancy loss and female-specific cancers within the Chinese population from prospective cohort studies.

What is added by this report?

Terminations were associated with a 13% lower risk of endometrial cancer, whereas stillbirths were related to an 18% higher risk of cervical cancer. Rural residents with a history of pregnancy loss experienced a 19% and 38% increased risk of breast and cervical cancers, respectively, compared to their urban counterparts. Moreover, a positive graded relationship between live births and pregnancy loss on cervical cancer was observed.

What are the implications for public health practice?

This study has significant implications for identifying women at an increased risk for breast and genital cancers and contributes to the development of effective public health strategies for female cancer prevention. Future research on reproductive history, particularly in rural areas, should be given priority in efforts to improve female cancer screening and early detection.

Development, validation, and evaluation of a risk assessment tool for personalized screening of gastric cancer in Chinese populations

BACKGROUND

Effective risk prediction models are lacking for personalized endoscopic screening of gastric cancer (GC). We aimed to develop, validate, and evaluate a questionnaire-based GC risk assessment tool for risk prediction and stratification in the Chinese population.

METHODS

In this three-stage multicenter study, we first selected eligible variables by Cox regression models and constructed a GC risk score (GCRS) based on regression coefficients in 416,343 subjects (aged 40-75 years) from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB, development cohort). In the same age range, we validated the GCRS effectiveness in 13,982 subjects from another independent Changzhou cohort (validation cohort) as well as in 5348 subjects from an endoscopy screening program in Yangzhou. Finally, we categorized participants into low (bottom 20%), intermediate (20-80%), and high risk (top 20%) groups by the GCRS distribution in the development cohort.

RESULTS

The GCRS using 11 questionnaire-based variables demonstrated a Harrell's C-index of 0.754 (95% CI, 0.745-0.762) and 0.736 (95% CI, 0.710-0.761) in the two cohorts, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 10-year risk was 0.34%, 1.05%, and 4.32% for individuals with a low (≤ 13.6), intermediate (13.7~30.6), and high (≥ 30.7) GCRS, respectively. In the endoscopic screening program, the detection rate of GC varied from 0.00% in low-GCRS individuals, 0.27% with intermediate GCRS, to 2.59% with high GCRS. A proportion of 81.6% of all GC cases was identified from the high-GCRS group, which represented 28.9% of all the screened participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The GCRS can be an effective risk assessment tool for tailored endoscopic screening of GC in China. Risk Evaluation for Stomach Cancer by Yourself (RESCUE), an online tool was developed to aid the use of GCRS.

[Lysosomal membrane protein Sidt2 knockout induces apoptosis of human hepatocytes in vitro independent of the autophagy-lysosomal pathway]

OBJECTIVE

To explore the regulatory mechanism of human hepatocyte apoptosis induced by lysosomal membrane protein Sidt2 knockout.

METHODS

The Sidt2 knockout (Sidt2^-/-) cell model was constructed in human hepatocyte HL7702 cells using Crispr-Cas9 technology.The protein levels of Sidt2 and key autophagy proteins LC3-II/I and P62 in the cell model were detected using Western blotting, and the formation of autophagosomes was observed with MDC staining.EdU incorporation assay and flow cytometry were performed to observe the effect of Sidt2 knockout on cell proliferation and apoptosis.The effect of chloroquine at the saturating concentration on autophagic flux, proliferation and apoptosis of Sidt2 knockout cells were observed.

RESULTS

Sidt2^-/- HL7702 cells were successfully constructed.Sidt2 knockout significantly inhibited the proliferation and increased apoptosis of the cells, causing also increased protein expressions of LC3-II/I and P62(P < 0.05) and increased number of autophagosomes.Autophagy of the cells reached a saturated state following treatment with 50 μmol/L chloroquine, and at this concentration, chloroquine significantly increased the expressions of LC3B and P62 in Sidt2^-/- HL7702 cells.

CONCLUSION

Sidt2 gene knockout causes dysregulation of the autophagy pathway and induces apoptosis of HL7702 cells, and the latter effect is not mediated by inhibiting the autophagy-lysosomal pathway.

Association of dietary patterns, circulating lipid profile, and risk of obesity

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to simultaneously explore the associations of major dietary patterns (DP) with lipid profiles and the associations of these profiles with general and central obesity risks and to evaluate the extent to which the metabolites mediate such associations.

METHODS

Habitual food consumption of 4778 participants with an average age of 47.0 from the China Kadoorie Biobank was collected using a 12-item food frequency questionnaire. Plasma samples were analyzed via targeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to quantify 129 lipid-related metabolites. Anthropometric information was measured by trained staff.

RESULTS

Two DPs were derived by factor analysis. The newly affluent southern pattern was characterized by high intakes of rice, meat, poultry, and fish, whereas the balanced pattern was characterized by consuming meat, poultry, fish, fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, dairy, eggs, and soybean. The newly affluent southern pattern was positively associated with 45 metabolites, which were positively associated with risks of obesity at the same time. The global lipid profile potentially explained 30.9%, 34.7%, and 53.1% of the effects of this DP on general obesity, waist circumference-defined central obesity, and waist-hip ratio-defined central obesity, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly affluent southern pattern points to an altered lipid profile, which showed higher general and central obesity risks. These findings partly suggest the biological mechanism for the obesogenic effects of this DP.

The Prospective Associations of Egg Consumption with the Risk of Total Cerebrovascular Disease Morbidity among Chinese Adults

BACKGROUND

Studies investigating the relationship between egg consumption and the risk of cerebrovascular disease (CED) have yielded inconsistent results. This study evaluated the association between egg consumption and the risk of CED among Chinese adults.

METHODS

Data were obtained from China Kadoorie Biobank, Qingdao. A computerised questionnaire was used to collect information regarding egg consumption frequency. CED events were tracked through linkage with the Disease Surveillance Point System and the new national health insurance databases. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to evaluate associations between egg consumption and CED risk controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 9.2 years, 865 and 1083 CED events among men and women, respectively, were documented. More than 50% of participants consumed eggs daily with an average age of 52.0 (10.4) years at baseline. No association between egg consumption and CED were identified in the whole cohort and women. However, a 28% lower risk of CED was observed in those who consumed eggs at a higher frequency (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.55-0.95) and a significant trend for the association (p for trend = 0.012) in a multivariable model in men.

CONCLUSION

Higher frequency of egg consumption was associated with a lower risk of total CED events among men but not women in Chinese adults. The beneficial effect on women warrants further investigations.

WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction model performance in 10 regions, China

Objective

To validate the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory-based cardiovascular disease risk prediction model in regions of China.

Methods

We performed an external validation of the WHO model for East Asia using the data set of China Kadoorie Biobank, an ongoing cohort study with 512 725 participants recruited from 10 regions of China from 2004-2008. We also recalculated the recalibration parameters for the WHO model in each region and evaluated the predictive performance of the model before and after recalibration. We assessed discrimination performance by Harrell's C index.

Findings

We included 412 225 participants aged 40-79 years. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 58 035 and 41 262 incident cardiovascular disease cases were recorded in women and men, respectively. Harrell's C of the WHO model was 0.682 in women and 0.700 in men but varied among regions. The WHO model underestimated the 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in most regions. After recalibration in each region, discrimination and calibration were both improved in the overall population. Harrell's C increased from 0.674 to 0.749 in women and from 0.698 to 0.753 in men. The ratios of predicted to observed cases before and after recalibration were 0.189 and 1.027 in women and 0.543 and 1.089 in men.

Conclusion

The WHO model for East Asia yielded moderate discrimination for cardiovascular disease in the Chinese population and had limited prediction for cardiovascular disease risk in different regions in China. Recalibration for diverse regions greatly improved discrimination and calibration in the overall population.

Long-term exposure to ambient PM2·5, active commuting, and farming activity and cardiovascular disease risk in adults in China: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Increased physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, but outdoor physical activity can be accompanied by increased inhalation of fine particulate matter (PM2·5). The extent to which long-term exposure to PM2·5 can offset the cardiovascular benefits of physical activity is unknown. We aimed to evaluate whether the associations between active commuting or farming activity and incident risks of cerebrovascular disease and ischaemic heart disease were consistent between populations with different ambient PM2·5 exposures.

METHODS

We did a prospective cohort study using data from people aged 30-79 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). Active commuting and farming activity were assessed at baseline using questionnaires. A high-resolution (1 × 1 km) satellite-based model was used to estimate annual average PM2·5 exposure during the study period. Participants were stratified according to PM2·5 exposure (54 μg/m3 or greater vs less than 54 μg/m3). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident cerebrovascular disease and ischaemic heart disease by active commuting and farming activity were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Effect modifications by PM2·5 exposure were tested by likelihood ratio tests. Analyses were restricted to the period from Jan 1, 2005, to Dec 31, 2017.

FINDINGS

Between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 512 725 people were enrolled in the CKB cohort. 322 399 eligible participants completed the baseline survey and were included in the analysis of active commuting (118 274 non-farmers and 204 125 farmers). Among 204 125 farmers, 2985 reported no farming time and 201 140 were included in the farming activity analysis. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 39 514 cerebrovascular disease cases and 22 313 ischaemic heart disease cases were newly identified. Among non-farmers with exposure to annual average PM2·5 concentrations of less than 54 μg/m3, increased active commuting was associated with lower risks of cerebrovascular disease (highest active commuting vs lowest active commuting HR 0·70, 95% CI 0·65-0·76) and ischaemic heart disease (0·60, 0·54-0·66). However, among non-farmers with exposure to annual average PM2·5 concentrations of 54 μg/m3 or greater, there was no association between active commuting and cerebrovascular disease or ischaemic heart disease. Among farmers with exposure to annual average PM2·5 concentrations of less than 54 μg/m3, increased active commuting (highest active commuting vs lowest active commuting HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·63-0·93) and increased farming activity (highest activity vs lowest activity HR 0·85, 95% CI 0·79-0·92) were both associated with a lower cerebrovascular disease risk. However, among farmers with exposure to annual average PM2·5 concentrations of 54 μg/m3 or greater, increases in active commuting (highest active commuting vs lowest active commuting HR 1·12, 95% CI 1·05-1·19) and farming activity (highest activity vs lowest activity HR 1·18, 95% CI 1·09-1·28) were associated with an elevated cerebrovascular disease risk. The above associations differed significantly between PM2·5 strata (all interaction p values <0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

For participants with long-term exposure to higher ambient PM2·5 concentrations, the cardiovascular benefits of active commuting and farming activity were significantly attenuated. Higher levels of active commuting and farming activity even increased the cerebrovascular disease risk among farmers with exposure to annual average PM2·5 concentrations of 54 μg/m3 or greater.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Wellcome Trust.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide study in >2.5 million individuals reveals heterogeneity in mechanistic pathways of type 2 diabetes and complications

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease that develops through diverse pathophysiological processes. To characterise the genetic contribution to these processes across ancestry groups, we aggregate genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from 2,535,601 individuals (39.7% non-European ancestry), including 428,452 T2D cases. We identify 1,289 independent association signals at genome-wide significance (P<5×10-8) that map to 611 loci, of which 145 loci are previously unreported. We define eight non-overlapping clusters of T2D signals characterised by distinct profiles of cardiometabolic trait associations. These clusters are differentially enriched for cell-type specific regions of open chromatin, including pancreatic islets, adipocytes, endothelial, and enteroendocrine cells. We build cluster-specific partitioned genetic risk scores (GRS) in an additional 137,559 individuals of diverse ancestry, including 10,159 T2D cases, and test their association with T2D-related vascular outcomes. Cluster-specific partitioned GRS are more strongly associated with coronary artery disease and end-stage diabetic nephropathy than an overall T2D GRS across ancestry groups, highlighting the importance of obesity-related processes in the development of vascular outcomes. Our findings demonstrate the value of integrating multi-ancestry GWAS with single-cell epigenomics to disentangle the aetiological heterogeneity driving the development and progression of T2D, which may offer a route to optimise global access to genetically-informed diabetes care.

Healthy lifestyle, DNA methylation age acceleration, and incident risk of coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND

DNA methylation clocks emerged as a tool to determine biological aging and have been related to mortality and age-related diseases. Little is known about the association of DNA methylation age (DNAm age) with coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in the Asian population.

RESULTS

Methylation level of baseline blood leukocyte DNA was measured by Infinium Methylation EPIC BeadChip for 491 incident CHD cases and 489 controls in the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank. We calculated the methylation age using a prediction model developed among Chinese. The correlation between chronological age and DNAm age was 0.90. DNA methylation age acceleration (Δage) was defined as the residual of regressing DNA methylation age on the chronological age. After adjustment for multiple risk factors of CHD and cell type proportion, compared with participants in the bottom quartile of Δage, the OR (95% CI) for CHD was 1.84 (1.17, 2.89) for participants in the top quartile. One SD increment in Δage was associated with 30% increased risk of CHD (OR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.09, 1.56; Ptrend = 0.003). The average number of cigarette equivalents consumed per day and waist-to-hip ratio were positively associated with Δage; red meat consumption was negatively associated with Δage, characterized by accelerated aging in those who never or rarely consumed red meat (all P < 0.05). Further mediation analysis revealed that 10%, 5% and 18% of the CHD risk related to smoking, waist-to-hip ratio and never or rarely red meat consumption was mediated through methylation aging, respectively (all P for mediation effect < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We first identified the association between DNAm age acceleration and incident CHD in the Asian population, and provided evidence that unfavorable lifestyle-induced epigenetic aging may play an important part in the underlying pathway to CHD.

Long-term ambient air pollution exposure and cardio-respiratory disease in China: findings from a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Existing evidence on long-term ambient air pollution (AAP) exposure and risk of cardio-respiratory diseases in China is mainly on mortality, and based on area average concentrations from fixed-site monitors for individual exposures. Substantial uncertainty persists, therefore, about the shape and strength of the relationship when assessed using more personalised individual exposure data. We aimed to examine the relationships between AAP exposure and risk of cardio-respiratory diseases using predicted local levels of AAP.

METHODS

A prospective study included 50,407 participants aged 30-79 years from Suzhou, China, with concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), fine (PM2.5), and inhalable (PM10) particulate matter, ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) and incident cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (n = 2,563) and respiratory disease (n = 1,764) recorded during 2013-2015. Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for diseases associated with local-level concentrations of AAP exposure, estimated using Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling.

RESULTS

The study period of 2013-2015 included a total of 135,199 person-years of follow-up for CVD. There was a positive association of AAP, particularly SO2 and O3, with risk of major cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Each 10 µg/m3 increase in SO2 was associated with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.12) for CVD, 1.25 (1.08, 1.44) for COPD and 1.12 (1.02, 1.23) for pneumonia. Similarly, each 10 µg/m3 increase in O3 was associated with adjusted HR of 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) for CVD, 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) for all stroke, and 1.04 (1.02, 1.06) for pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

Among adults in urban China, long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with a higher risk of cardio-respiratory disease.

Development of a prediction model to identify undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients in primary care settings in China

BACKGROUND

At present, a large number of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients are undiagnosed in China. Thus, this study aimed to develop a simple prediction model as a screening tool to identify patients at risk for COPD.

METHODS

The study was based on the data of 22,943 subjects aged 30 to 79 years and enrolled in the second resurvey of China Kadoorie Biobank during 2012 and 2013 in China. We stepwisely selected the predictors using logistic regression model. Then we tested the model validity through P-P graph, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), ten-fold cross validation and an external validation in a sample of 3492 individuals from the Enjoying Breathing Program in China.

RESULTS

The final prediction model involved 14 independent variables, including age, sex, location (urban/rural), region, educational background, smoking status, smoking amount (pack-years), years of exposure to air pollution by cooking fuel, family history of COPD, history of tuberculosis, body mass index, shortness of breath, sputum and wheeze. The model showed an area under curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.73) for detecting undiagnosed COPD patients, with the cutoff of predicted probability of COPD=0.22, presenting a sensitivity of 70.13% and a specificity of 62.25%. The AUROC value for screening undiagnosed patients with clinically significant COPD was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.69). Moreover, the ten-fold cross validation reported an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.73), and the external validation presented an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.68-0.71).

CONCLUSION

This prediction model can serve as a first-stage screening tool for undiagnosed COPD patients in primary care settings.

An evolutionary epigenetic clock in plants

Molecular clocks are the basis for dating the divergence between lineages over macro-evolutionary timescales (~10 5 -10 8 years). However, classical DNA-based clocks tick too slowly to inform us about the recent past. Here, we demonstrate that stochastic DNA methylation changes at a subset of cytosines in plant genomes possess a clock-like behavior. This 'epimutation-clock' is orders of magnitude faster than DNA-based clocks and enables phylogenetic explorations on a scale of years to centuries. We show experimentally that epimutation-clocks recapitulate known topologies and branching times of intra-species phylogenetic trees in the selfing plant A. thaliana and the clonal seagrass Z. marina , which represent two major modes of plant reproduction. This discovery will open new possibilities for high-resolution temporal studies of plant biodiversity.

Electronic Health Record-Based Absolute Risk Prediction Model for Esophageal Cancer in the Chinese Population: Model Development and External Validation

BACKGROUND

China has the largest burden of esophageal cancer (EC). Prediction models can be used to identify high-risk individuals for intensive lifestyle interventions and endoscopy screening. However, the current prediction models are limited by small sample size and a lack of external validation, and none of them can be embedded into the booming electronic health records (EHRs) in China.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop and validate absolute risk prediction models for EC in the Chinese population. In particular, we assessed whether models that contain only EHR-available predictors performed well.

METHODS

A prospective cohort recruiting 510,145 participants free of cancer from both high EC-risk and low EC-risk areas in China was used to develop EC models. Another prospective cohort of 18,441 participants was used for validation. A flexible parametric model was used to develop a 10-year absolute risk model by considering the competing risks (full model). The full model was then abbreviated by keeping only EHR-available predictors. We internally and externally validated the models by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots and compared them based on classification measures.

RESULTS

During a median of 11.1 years of follow-up, we observed 2550 EC incident cases. The models consisted of age, sex, regional EC-risk level (high-risk areas: 2 study regions; low-risk areas: 8 regions), education, family history of cancer (simple model), smoking, alcohol use, BMI (intermediate model), physical activity, hot tea consumption, and fresh fruit consumption (full model). The performance was only slightly compromised after the abbreviation. The simple and intermediate models showed good calibration and excellent discriminating ability with AUCs (95% CIs) of 0.822 (0.783-0.861) and 0.830 (0.792-0.867) in the external validation and 0.871 (0.858-0.884) and 0.879 (0.867-0.892) in the internal validation, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Three nested 10-year EC absolute risk prediction models for Chinese adults aged 30-79 years were developed and validated, which may be particularly useful for populations in low EC-risk areas. Even the simple model with only 5 predictors available from EHRs had excellent discrimination and good calibration, indicating its potential for broader use in tailored EC prevention. The simple and intermediate models have the potential to be widely used for both primary and secondary prevention of EC.

Chronological and Replicative Aging of CD51+/PDGFR-α+ Pulp Stromal Cells

As a crucial source of mesenchymal stromal cells, CD51⁺/PDGFR-α⁺ human dental pulp stromal cells (hDPSCs) are promising seeding cells for regenerative medicine. Cellular senescence hinders the translational application of hDPSCs. However, it remains unclear whether chronological and replicative senescence results in distinct outcomes for hDPSCs. To investigate the influence of senescence on DPSCs, we used transgenic lineage tracking, immunofluorescence, flow cytometry, and various molecular experiments to depict the dynamic pattern of hDPSCs in mice and humans during chronological and replicative senescence. The data demonstrated that CD51⁺/PDGFR-α⁺ cells were decreased in chronological senescence. Impaired self-renewal and higher ossificatory differentiation were observed in chronologically senescent hDPSCs. Regarding replicative senescence, a decreased CD51⁺ but upregulated PDGFR-α⁺ population was observed in culture. Furthermore, weakened self-renewal and osteogenic differentiation were observed in replicatively senescent hDPSCs. In summary, CD51⁺/PDGFR-α⁺ hDPSCs decrease in chronologically aged pulp, with self-renewal that is impaired without impaired osteogenic differentiation. However, replicative senescence has a different impact: self-renewal and ossific differentiation are impaired and CD51 expression is reduced, but PDGFR-α expression remains. These findings demonstrate the different outcomes of chronological and replicative senescence in CD51⁺/PDGFR-α⁺ hDPSCs. Furthermore, we revealed that impaired self-renewal is the core dysfunction for both types of cellular aging and that osteogenic differentiation capability differs between them. This study provides insights into the influence of chronological and replicative senescence on the characteristics and capabilities of hDPSCs. These advances provide fundamental knowledge to alleviate cellular aging of CD51⁺/PDGFR-α⁺ hDPSCs and promote their translational applications.

Intakes of major food groups in China and UK: results from 100,000 adults in the China Kadoorie biobank and UK biobank

PURPOSE

Different populations may exhibit differences in dietary intakes, which may result in heterogeneities in diet-disease associations. We compared intakes of major food groups overall, by sex, and by socio-economic status (SES) (defined as both education and income), between participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and the UK Biobank (UKB).

METHODS

Data were from ~ 25,000 CKB participants who completed a validated interviewer-administered computer-based questionnaire (2013-2014) and ~ 74,000 UKB participants who completed ≥ 3 web-based 24-h dietary assessments (2009-2012). Intakes of 12 major food groups and five beverages were harmonized and compared between the cohorts overall, by sex and by SES. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression examined the associations between dietary intakes and body mass index (BMI) in each cohort.

RESULTS

CKB participants reported consuming more rice, eggs, vegetables, soya products, and less wheat, other staple foods (other than rice and wheat), fish, poultry, all dairy products, fruit, and beverages compared to UKB participants. Red meat intake was similar in both cohorts. Having a higher SES was generally associated with a higher consumption of foods and beverages in CKB, whereas in UKB dietary intakes differed more by education and income, with a positive association observed for meat and income in both UKB and CKB but an inverse association observed for education in UKB. Associations of dietary intakes with BMI varied between the two cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The large differences in dietary intakes and their associations with SES and BMI could provide insight into the interpretation of potentially different diet-disease associations between CKB and UKB.

Modeling biological age using blood biomarkers and physical measurements in Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to: 1) assess the associations of biological age acceleration based on Klemera and Doubal's method (KDM-AA) with long-term risk of all-cause mortality; and 2) compare the association of KDM-AA with all-cause mortality among participants potentially at different stages of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) continuum.

METHODS

The present study was based on a subpopulation of the China Kadoorie Biobank, with baseline survey during 2004-08. A total of 12,377 participants free of ischemic heart disease, stroke, or cancer at baseline were included, in which 8180 participants were identified to develop major coronary event (MCE), ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) or subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and 4197 remained free of these cardiovascular diseases before 1 January 2014. These participants were followed up until 1 Jan 2018. KDM-AA was calculated by regressing biological age measurement, which was constructed based on baseline 16 physical and 9 biochemical markers using Klemera and Doubal's method, on chronological age. We estimated the associations of KDM-AA with the mortality risk using the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from Cox proportional hazard models. We assessed discrimination performance by Harrell's C-index and net reclassification index (NRI).

FINDINGS

The participants who developed MCE (mean KDM-AA = 0.1 year, standard deviation [SD] = 1.6 years) or ICH/SAH (0.3 ± 1.5 years) during subsequent follow-up showed accelerated aging at baseline compared to those of IS (0.0 ± 1.2 years) and control (-0.3 ± 1.3 years) groups. The KDM-AA was positively associated with long-term risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.23), and the association was robust for participants potentially at different stages of the CVD continuum. Adding KDM-AA improved mortality prediction compared to the model only with sociodemographic and lifestyle factors in whole participants, with the Harrell's C-index increasing from 0.813 (0.807, 0.819) to 0.821 (0.815, 0.826) (NRI = 0.011; 95% CI: 0.003, 0.019).

INTERPRETATION

In this middle-aged and elderly Chinese population, the KDM-AA is a promising measurement for biological age, and can capture the difference in cardiovascular health and predict the risk of all-cause mortality over a decade.

FUNDING

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82192901, 82192900, 81941018). The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01).

Analysis of the reports of low-concentration atropine in controlling myopia in children

PURPOSE

To evaluate the efficacy of 0.01% atropine to slow the progression of myopia in children.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, CNKI, Cqvip and Wan fang databases from inception to January 2022, including RCTs (randomized controlled trials) and non-RCTs (non-randomized controlled trials). The search strategy was 'myopia' OR 'refractive error' and 'atropine.' Two researchers independently reviewed the articles, and stata12.0 was used for meta-analysis. The Jadad score was used to assess the quality of RCT, and the Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used for non-RCTs.

RESULTS

Five RCTs and two non-RCTs (1 prospective non-randomized controlled study, 1 retrospective cohort study) were identified (including 1000 eyes). Results of the meta-analysis showed statistical heterogeneity among the 7 included studies (P=0. 026, I2 =47.1%). According to different durations of atropine use - 4 months, 6 months and greater than 8 months, subgroup analysis results showed that the axial elongation of all experimental groups relative to control groups were respectively -0.03mm (95% [CI], (confidence interval), -0.07 to 0.01), -0.07mm (95% [CI], -0.10 to -0.05), -0.09mm (95% [CI], -0.12 to -0.06). Each P was greater than 0.05, which indicated that there is little heterogeneity among the subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

In this meta-analysis of the short-term efficacy of atropine in myopia patients, it was found that there was little heterogeneity when grouped by usage time. It is suggested that the use of atropine in the treatment of myopia is not only related to its concentration but also related to the duration of use.

Genetically Predicted Differences in Systolic Blood Pressure and Risk of Cardiovascular and Noncardiovascular Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Study in Chinese Adults

BACKGROUND

Mendelian randomization studies of systolic blood pressure (SBP) can assess the shape and strength of the associations of genetically predicted differences in SBP with major disease outcomes and are less constrained by biases in observational analyses. This study aimed to compare the associations of usual and genetically predicted SBP with major cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, overall and by levels of SBP, age, and sex.

METHODS

The China Kadoorie Biobank involved a 12-year follow-up of a prospective study of 489 495 adults aged 40 to 79 years with no prior CVD and 86 060 with genetic data. Outcomes included major vascular events (59 490/23 151 in observational/genetic analyses), and its components (ischemic stroke [n=39 513/12 043], intracerebral hemorrhage [7336/5243], and major coronary events [7871/4187]). Genetically predicted SBP used 460 variants obtained from European ancestry genome-wide studies. Cox regression estimated adjusted hazard ratios for incident CVD outcomes down to usual SBP levels of 120 mm Hg.

RESULTS

Both observational and genetic analyses demonstrated log-linear positive associations of SBP with major vascular event and other major CVD types in the range of 120 to 170 mm Hg. Consistent with the observational analyses, the hazard ratios per 10 mm Hg higher genetically predicted SBP were 2-fold greater for intracerebral hemorrhage (1.71 [95% CI, 1.58-1.87]) than for ischemic stroke (1.37 [1.30-1.45]) or major coronary event (1.29 [1.18-1.42]). Genetic analyses also demonstrated 2-fold greater hazard ratios for major vascular event in younger (1.69 [95% CI, 1.54-1.86]) than in older people (1.28 [1.18-1.38]).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings provide support for initiation of blood pressure-lowering treatment at younger ages and below the conventional cut-offs for hypertension to maximize CVD prevention, albeit the absolute risks of CVD are far greater in older people.

Impacts of solid fuel use versus smoking on life expectancy at age 30 years in the rural and urban Chinese population: a prospective cohort study

Background

The impact of solid fuel use on life expectancy (LE) in less-developed countries remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the potential impact of household solid fuel use on LE in the rural and urban Chinese population, with the effect of smoking as a reference.

Methods

We used data from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) of 484,915 participants aged 30-79 free of coronary heart disease, stroke, or cancer at baseline. Analyses were performed separately for solid fuel use for cooking, solid fuel use for heating, and smoking, with participants exposed to the other two sources excluded. Solid fuels refer to coal and wood, and clean fuels refer to electricity, gas, and central heating. We used a flexible parametric Royston-Parmar model to estimate hazard ratios of all-cause mortality and predict LE at age 30.

Findings

Totally, 185,077, 95,228, and 230,995 participants were included in cooking-, heating-, and smoking-related analyses, respectively. During a median follow-up of approximately 12.1 years, 12,725, 7,531, and 18,878 deaths were recorded in the respective analysis. Compared with clean fuel users who reported cooking with ventilation, participants who used solid fuels with ventilation and without ventilation had a difference in LE (95% confidence interval [CI]) at age 30 of -1.72 (-2.88, -0.57) and -2.62 (-4.16, -1.05) years for men and -1.33 (-1.85, -0.81) and -1.35 (-2.02, -0.67) years for women, respectively. The difference in LE (95% CI) for heating was -2.23 (-3.51, -0.95) years for men and -1.28 (-2.08, -0.48) years for women. In rural men, the LE reduction (95% CI) related to solid fuel use for cooking (-2.55; -4.51, -0.58) or heating (-3.26; -6.09, 0.44) was more than that related to smoking (-1.71; -2.54, -0.89). Conversely, in urban men, the LE reduction (95% CI) related to smoking (-3.06; -3.56, -2.56) was more than that related to solid fuel use for cooking (-1.28; -2.61, 0.05) and heating (-1.90; -3.16, -0.65). Similar results were observed in women but with a smaller magnitude.

Interpretation

In this Chinese population, the harm to LE from household use of solid fuels was greater than that from smoking in rural residents. Conversely, the negative impact of smoking was greater than solid fuel use in urban residents. Our findings highlight the complexity and diversity of the factors affecting LE in less-developed populations.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key R&D Program of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Wellcome Trust.