Association of Chronic Kidney Disease With Risk of Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Importance

The evidence linking chronic kidney disease (CKD) to spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is inconclusive owing to possible confounding by comorbidities that frequently coexist in patients with these 2 diseases.

Objective

To determine whether there is an association between CKD and ICH risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A 3-stage study that combined observational and genetic analyses was conducted. First, the association between CKD and ICH risk was tested in the Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ERICH) study, a multicenter case-control study in the US. All participants with available data on CKD from ERICH were included. Second, this analysis was replicated in the UK Biobank (UKB), an ongoing population study in the UK. All participants in the UKB were included in this study. Third, mendelian randomization analyses were implemented in the UKB using 27 CKD-related genetic variants to test for genetic associations. ERICH was conducted from August 1, 2010, to August 1, 2017, and observed participants for 1 year. The UKB enrolled participants between 2006 and 2010 and will continue to observe them for 30 years. Data analysis was performed from November 11, 2019, to May 10, 2022.

Exposures

CKD stages 1 to 5.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The outcome of interest was ICH, ascertained in ERICH via expert review of neuroimages and in the UKB via a combination of self-reported data and International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes.

Results

In the ERICH study, a total of 2914 participants with ICH and 2954 controls who had available data on CKD were evaluated (mean [SD] age, 61.6 [14.0] years; 2433 female participants [41.5%]; 3435 male participants [58.5%]); CKD was found to be independently associated with higher risk of ICH (odds ratio [OR], 1.95; 95% CI, 1.35-2.89; P < .001). This association was not modified by race and ethnicity. Replication in the UKB with 1341 participants with ICH and 501 195 controls (mean [SD] age, 56.5 [8.1] years; 273 402 female participants [54.4%]; 229 134 male participants [45.6%]) confirmed this association (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.01-1.62; P = .04). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated that genetically determined CKD was associated with ICH risk (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.13-2.16; P = .007).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this 3-stage study that combined observational and genetic analyses among study participants enrolled in 2 large observational studies with different characteristics and study designs, CKD was consistently associated with higher risk of ICH. Mendelian randomization analyses suggest that this association was causal. Further studies are needed to identify the specific biological pathways that mediate this association.

The role of cross-sectional imaging of the extracranial and intracranial vasculature in embolic stroke of undetermined source

Despite an extensive workup, nearly one third of ischemic strokes are defined as Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS), indicating that no clear etiologic cause has been identified. Since large vessel atherosclerotic disease is a major cause of ischemic stroke, we focus on imaging of large vessel atherosclerosis to identify further sources of potential emboli which may be contributing to ESUS. For a stroke to be considered ESUS, both the extracranial and intracranial vessels must have &lt;50% stenosis. Given the recent paradigm shift in our understanding of the role of plaque vulnerability in ischemic stroke risk, we evaluate the role of imaging specific high-risk extracranial plaque features in non-stenosing plaque and their potential contributions to ESUS. Further, intracranial vessel-wall MR is another potential tool to identify non-stenosing atherosclerotic plaques which may also contribute to ESUS. In this review, we discuss the role of cross-sectional imaging of the extracranial and intracranial arteries and how imaging may potentially uncover high risk plaque features which may be contributing to ischemic strokes.

Post-operative atrial fibrillation and risk of heart failure hospitalization

AIMS

Post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with stroke and mortality. It is unknown if POAF is associated with subsequent heart failure (HF) hospitalization. This study aims to examine the association between POAF and incident HF hospitalization among patients undergoing cardiac and non-cardiac surgeries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using all-payer administrative claims data that included all non-federal emergency department visits and acute care hospitalizations across 11 states in the USA. The study population included adults aged at least 18 years hospitalized for surgery without a prior diagnosis of HF. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association between POAF and incident HF hospitalization after making adjustment for socio-demographics and comorbid conditions. Among 76 536 patients who underwent cardiac surgery, 14 365 (18.8%) developed incident POAF. In an adjusted Cox model, POAF was associated with incident HF hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-1.41]. In a sensitivity analysis excluding HF within 1 year of surgery, POAF remained associated with incident HF hospitalization (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.01-1.31). Among 2 929 854 patients who underwent non-cardiac surgery, 23 763 (0.8%) developed incident POAF. In an adjusted Cox model, POAF was again associated with incident HF hospitalization (HR 2.02; 95% CI 1.94-2.10), including in a sensitivity analysis excluding HF within 1 year of surgery (HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.38-1.61).

CONCLUSIONS

Post-operative atrial fibrillation is associated with incident HF hospitalization among patients without prior history of HF undergoing both cardiac and non-cardiac surgeries. These findings reinforce the adverse prognostic impact of POAF and suggest that POAF may be a marker for identifying patients with subclinical HF and those at elevated risk for HF.

Incomplete circle of Willis variants and stroke outcome

BACKGROUND

There is considerable variation in circle of Willis morphology among the general population, and these variations have been correlated with risk of aneurysms, cerebral ischemia, and other clinical events.

PURPOSE

To investigate the relationship between circle of Willis variants and stroke outcome.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective study involving 297 patients from our institution's acute stroke academic registry. All received MRA examinations of the head upon admission for acute strokes. All imaging was reviewed to assess for circle of Willis variants (particularly A1 and P1 aplasia or hypoplasia) along with vertebral artery aplasia or hypoplasia. Stroke outcome was defined as good (walking independently at the time of discharge) or poor (inability to walk at discharge, assistance needed to walk at discharge, or death). Severity of stroke was assessed using the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale.

RESULTS

An incomplete circle of Willis was seen in 34% of subjects. There was no significant association between age, gender, hypertension, or presence of arterial stenosis and circle of Willis completeness. Using logistic regression, we found that the presence of an incomplete circle of Willis decreased the odds of a stroke patient having a good outcome by 47% (p = 0.046, OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.281-0.988), after adjusting for age and severity of stroke at admission.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that an incomplete circle of Willis may be associated with a poorer prognosis for stroke patients.

Evaluation of the safety of tranexamic acid use in pediatric patients undergoing spinal fusion surgery: a retrospective comparative cohort study

Background

Pediatric spinal fusion may be associated with significant intraoperative blood loss, leading to complications from transfusion, hypoperfusion and coagulopathy. One emerging strategy to mediate these risks is by utilization of the anti-fibrinolytic agent tranexamic acid (TXA). However, concerns regarding potential adverse reactions, specifically postoperative seizures and thrombotic events, still exist. To assess these risks, we examined the perioperative morbidity of TXA use in a large national database.

Methods

Retrospective data from pediatric patients (age 18 years or younger), discharged between January 2013 to December 2015, who underwent primary or revision posterior spinal fusions, was collected from the Premier Perspective database (Premier, Charlotte, NC). Patients were stratified by TXA use and records were assessed for complications of new onset seizures, strokes, pulmonary embolisms (PE) or deep vein thromboses (DVT) occurring during the perioperative period.

Results

In this cohort of 2,633 pediatric patients undergoing posterior spinal fusions, most often to treat adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, 15% received TXA. Overall, adverse events were rare in this patient population. The incidence of seizure, stoke, PE, or DVT in the control group was 0.54% (95% CI, 0.31% to 0.94%) and not significantly different from the TXA group. There was no significant difference in the incidence of DVTs, and no incidences of stroke in either group. There were no new-onset seizures or PEs in patients who received TXA.

Conclusions

The use of TXA was not associated with an increased risk of adverse events including seizure, stroke, PE, and DVT. Our findings support the safety of TXA use in pediatric patients undergoing spinal fusion surgery.

In Search of the Optimal Antithrombotic Regimen for Intracerebral Hemorrhage Survivors with Atrial Fibrillation

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) constitutes 10-15% of all strokes, and is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity. Survivors of ICH, especially those with atrial fibrillation (AF), are at risk for both recurrent hemorrhagic and ischemic cerebrovascular events. A conundrum in the field of vascular neurology, neurosurgery, and cardiology has been the decision to initiate or resume versus withhold anticoagulation in survivors of ICH with AF. To initiate anticoagulation would decrease the risk of ischemic stroke but may increase the risk of hemorrhage. To withhold anticoagulation maintains a lower risk of hemorrhage but does not decrease the risk of ischemic stroke. In this narrative review, we discuss the evidence for and against the use of antithrombotics in ICH survivors with AF, focusing on recently completed and ongoing clinical trials.

Risk Stratification Models for Stroke in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 Infection

Objectives

To derive models that identify patients with COVID-19 at high risk for stroke.

Materials and Methods

We used data from the AHA's Get With The Guidelines® COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry to generate models for predicting stroke risk among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 at 122 centers from March 2020-March 2021. To build our models, we used data on demographics, comorbidities, medications, and vital sign and laboratory values at admission. The outcome was a cerebrovascular event (stroke, TIA, or cerebral vein thrombosis). First, we used Cox regression with cross validation techniques to identify factors associated with the outcome in both univariable and multivariable analyses. Then, we assigned points for each variable based on corresponding coefficients to create a prediction score. Second, we used machine learning techniques to create risk estimators using all available covariates.

Results

Among 21,420 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 312 (1.5%) had a cerebrovascular event. Using traditional Cox regression, we created/validated a COVID-19 stroke risk score with a C-statistic of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60–0.72). The CANDLE score assigns 1 point each for prior cerebrovascular disease, afebrile temperature, no prior pulmonary disease, history of hypertension, leukocytosis, and elevated systolic blood pressure. CANDLE stratified risk of an acute cerebrovascular event according to low- (0–1: 0.2% risk), medium- (2–3: 1.1% risk), and high-risk (4–6: 2.1–3.0% risk) groups. Machine learning estimators had similar discriminatory performance as CANDLE: C-statistics, 0.63–0.69.

Conclusions

We developed a practical clinical score, with similar performance to machine learning estimators, to help stratify stroke risk among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Review and update of the concept of embolic stroke of undetermined source

Ischaemic strokes have traditionally been classified according to the TOAST criteria, in which strokes with unclear aetiology are classified as cryptogenic strokes. However, the definition of cryptogenic stroke did not meet the operational criteria necessary to define patient populations for randomized treatment trials. To address this problem, the concept of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) was developed and published in 2014. A hypothesis that underpinned this concept was that most strokes in patients with ESUS are caused by embolic events, perhaps many cardioembolic, and that anticoagulation would prevent secondary ischaemic events. On this basis, two large randomized trials were conducted to compare the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) dabigatran and rivaroxaban with aspirin. Neither NOAC was superior to aspirin in these trials, although subgroups of patients with ESUS seemed to benefit specifically from anticoagulation or antiplatelet therapy. The neutral results of the trials of anticoagulation and insights into ESUS from research conducted since the concept was introduced warrant reassessment of the ESUS construct as a research concept and a treatment target. In this Review, we discuss the evidence produced since the concept of ESUS was introduced, and propose updates to the criteria and diagnostic algorithm in light of the latest knowledge.

Comparing hematoma characteristics in primary intracerebral hemorrhage versus intracerebral hemorrhage caused by structural vascular lesions

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) caused by structural vascular lesions is associated with better outcomes than primary ICH, but this relationship is poorly understood. We tested the hypothesis that ICH from a vascular lesion has more benign hematoma characteristics compared to primary ICH. We performed a retrospective study using data from our medical center. The SMASH-U criteria were used to adjudicate the etiology of ICH. The co-primary outcomes were admission parenchymal hematoma volume and hematoma expansion at 24 h. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to test associations. A total of 231 patients were included of whom 42 (18%) had a vascular lesion. Compared to primary ICH patients, those with structural vascular lesions were younger (49 vs. 68 years, p < 0.001), less likely to have hypertension (29% vs. 74%, p < 0.001), had lower mean admission systolic blood pressure (140 ± 23 vs. 164 ± 35, p < 0.001), less frequently had IVH (26% vs. 44%, p = 0.03), and had mostly lobar or infratentorial hemorrhages. The median admission hematoma volume was smaller with vascular lesions (5.9 vs. 9.7 mL, p = 0.01). In regression models, ICH from a vascular lesion was associated with smaller admission hematoma volume (beta, -0.67, 95% CI, -1.29 to -0.05, p = 0.03), but no association with hematoma expansion was detected when assessed as a continuous (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, -4.46 to 6.30, p = 0.73) or dichotomous exposure (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 0.40 to 8.51, p = 0.42). In a single-center cohort, patients with ICH from vascular lesions had smaller hematoma volumes than patients with primary ICH.

Early Deterioration, Hematoma Expansion, and Outcomes in Deep Versus Lobar Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The FAST Trial

BACKGROUND

In patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), it is unclear whether early neurological deterioration, hematoma expansion (HE), and outcome vary by supratentorial ICH location (deep versus lobar). Herein, we assessed these relationships in a clinical trial cohort that underwent brain imaging early after symptom onset. We hypothesized that HE would occur more frequently, and outcome would be worse in patients with deep ICH.

METHODS

We performed a post hoc analysis of the FAST (Factor-VII-for-Acute-Hemorrhagic-Stroke-Treatment) trial including all patients with supratentorial hemorrhage. Enrolled patients underwent brain imaging within 3 hours of symptom onset and 24 hours after randomization. Multivariable regression was used to test the association between ICH location and 3 outcomes: HE (increase of ≥33% or 6mL), early neurological deterioration (decrease in Glasgow Coma Scale score ≥2 points or increase in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale ≥4 points within 24 hours of admission), and 90-day outcome (modified Rankin Scale).

RESULTS

Of 841 FAST trial patients, we included 728 (mean age 64 years, 38% women) with supratentorial hemorrhages (deep n=623, lobar n=105). HE (44 versus 27%, P=0.001) and early neurological deterioration (31 versus 17%, P=0.001) were more common in lobar hemorrhages. Deep hemorrhages were smaller than lobar hemorrhages at baseline (12 versus 35mL, P<0.001) and 24 hours (14 versus 38mL, P<0.001). Unadjusted 90-day outcome was worse in lobar compared with deep ICH (median modified Rankin Scale score 5 versus 4, P=0.03). However, when adjusting for variables included in the ICH score including ICH volume, deep location was associated with worse and lobar location with better outcome (odds ratio lobar location, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.38-0.89]; P=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In this secondary analysis of randomized trial patients, lobar ICH location was associated with larger ICH volume, more HE and early neurological deterioration, and worse outcome than deep ICH. After adjustment for prognostic variables, however, deep ICH was associated with worse outcome, likely due to their proximity to eloquent brain structures.

Sex differences in the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke after ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack

Background

Sex differences in stroke outcomes have been noted, but whether this extends to stroke recurrence is unclear. We examined sex differences in recurrent stroke using data from the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial.

Patients and methods

We assessed the risk of recurrent stroke in women compared to men using data from the POINT trial. Adults >18 years old were randomized within 12 hours of onset of minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), and followed for up to 90 days for ischemic stroke, our primary outcome. We used Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for demographics and stroke risk factors to evaluate the association between sex and stroke recurrence. We used interaction term testing and prespecified subgroup analyses to determine if the association between sex and recurrent stroke differed by age (<60 versus >60 years old), locale (US versus non-US), and index event type (stroke versus TIA). Last, we evaluated whether sex modified the effect of common stroke risk factors on stroke recurrence.

Results

Of 4,881 POINT trial participants with minor stroke or high-risk TIA, 2,195 (45%) were women. During the 90-day follow-up period, 267 ischemic strokes occurred; 121 were in women and 146 in men. The cumulative risk of recurrent ischemic stroke was not significantly different among women (5.76%; 95% CI, 4.84%-6.85%) compared to men (5.67%; 95% CI, 4.83%-6.63%). Women were not at a different risk of recurrent ischemic stroke compared to men (hazard ratio [HR], 1.02; 95% CI, 0.80-1.30) in unadjusted models or after adjusting for covariates. However, there was a significant interaction of age with sex (P=0.04). Among patients <60 years old, there was a non-significantly lower risk of recurrent stroke in women compared to men (HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.42-1.05). Last, sex did not modify the association between common stroke risk factors and recurrent stroke risk.

Discussion and Conclusion

Among patients with minor stroke or TIA, the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and the impact of common stroke risk factors did not differ between men and women.

Cerebral Microbleeds and Acute Hematoma Characteristics in the ATACH-2 and MISTIE III Trials

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

To study the relationship between the presence of cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) and acute hematoma characteristics among patients with primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

We pooled individual patient data from the Antihypertensive Treatment of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage 2 (ATACH-2) trial and the Minimally Invasive Surgery Plus Alteplase for Intracerebral Hemorrhage Evacuation phase 3 (MISTIE III) trial. We included individuals with a brain MRI scan. Exposure was the presence of a CMB. The coprimary outcomes were admission ICH volume and hematoma expansion. Mixed-effects linear and logistic regression models were used, with demographics and comorbid conditions considered fixed effects and the study cohort treated as a random effect. Additional analyses assessed the relationship between CMB topography and number and hematoma characteristics.

RESULTS

Of the 1,499 patients with ICH enrolled in the parent trials, 466 (31.1%) were included in this analysis, and 231 (49.6%) patients had CMBs. In adjusted models, presence of CMBs was associated with smaller ICH volume (β = -0.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.44 to -0.08) and lower odds of hematoma expansion (odds ratio 0.65, 95% CI 0.40-0.95; p = 0.04). The strength of association between CMBs and hematoma characteristics increased with increasing number of CMBs. The location of the CMBs and the severity of leukoaraiosis did not modify these results.

DISCUSSION

In a pooled cohort of patients with ICH, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that more severe underlying small vessel disease, as represented by CMBs, leads to smaller baseline hematoma volumes and reduced hematoma expansion. Underlying cerebral small vessel disease may be of prognostic significance after ICH.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01176565 and NCT01827046.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class II evidence that the presence of microbleeds on MRI is associated with a smaller ICH volume at presentation and a lower rate of hematoma expansion on follow-up imaging.

Adherence to Guideline-Recommended Cancer Screening in Stroke Survivors: A Nationwide Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Cancer can present as stroke. Several cancer types have established screening guidelines. We investigated adherence to guideline-recommended cancer screening in stroke survivors versus the general population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis using 2012-2018 data from the CDC's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey. BRFSS is a nationally-representative telephone survey of non-institutionalized Americans that collects data about health conditions and behaviors, including cancer screening. We defined guideline-recommended colorectal, lung, and breast cancer screening based on the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendations. We used survey-specific methods to estimate up-to-date screening rates for those with and without prior stroke. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds of up-to-date screening in stroke survivors compared to those without history of stroke after adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Among 1,018,440 respondents eligible for colorectal cancer screening, 66% were up-to-date. Among 6,880 respondents eligible for lung cancer screening, 16% were up-to-date. Among 548,434 women eligible for breast cancer screening, 78% were up-to-date. After adjustment for demographics and confounders, stroke survivors were more likely to have up-to-date colorectal cancer screening (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05-1.16), equally likely to undergo lung cancer screening (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.62-1.59), and less likely to undergo breast cancer screening (OR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationwide analysis, stroke survivors had similar suboptimal adherence to guideline-recommended cancer screening as the general population.

Transesophageal echocardiography and risk of respiratory failure in patients who had ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack: an IDEAL phase 4 study

Objective

Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is sometimes used to search for cardioembolic sources after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). TEE visualizes some sources better than transthoracic echocardiography, but TEE is invasive and may cause aspiration. Few data exist on the risk of respiratory complications after TEE in patients who had stroke or TIA. Our objective was to determine whether TEE was associated with increased risk of respiratory failure in patients who had ischemic stroke or TIA.

Design

This is a retrospective cohort study using administrative data from inpatient and outpatient insurance claims collected by the US federal government’s Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Setting

Hospitals and outpatient clinics throughout the USA.

Participants

99 081 patients ≥65 years old hospitalized for out-of-hospital ischemic stroke or TIA, defined by validated International Classification of Disease-9/10 diagnosis codes and present-on-admission codes, using claims data from 2008 to 2018 in a random 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries.

Main outcome measures

Acute respiratory failure, defined as endotracheal intubation and/or mechanical ventilation, starting on the first day after admission through 28 days afterward.

Results

Of 99 081 patients included in this analysis, 73 733 (74.4%) had an ischemic stroke and 25 348 (25.6%) a TIA. TEE was performed in 4677 (4.7%) patients and intubation and/or mechanical ventilation in 1403 (1.4%) patients. The 28-day cumulative risk of respiratory failure after TEE (1.4%; 95% CI 0.8% to 2.7%) was similar to that seen in those without TEE (1.4%; 95% CI 1.4% to 1.5%) (p=0.84). After adjustment for age, sex, race, Charlson comorbidities, diagnosis of stroke versus TIA, intravenous thrombolysis, and mechanical thrombectomy, TEE was not associated with an increased risk of respiratory failure (HR, 0.9; 95% CI 0.6 to 1.2).

Conclusions

In a cohort of older patients who had ischemic stroke or TIA, TEE was not associated with an increased risk of subsequent respiratory failure.

Advances in the management of cardioembolic stroke associated with patent foramen ovale

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) describes a valve in the interatrial septum that permits shunting of blood or thrombotic material between the atria. PFOs are present in approximately 25% of the healthy population and are not associated with any pathology in the vast majority of cases. However, comparisons between patients with stroke and healthy controls suggest that PFOs may be causative of stroke in certain patients whose stroke is otherwise cryptogenic. Options for the diagnosis of PFO include transthoracic echocardiography, transesophageal echocardiography, and transcranial Doppler ultrasonography. PFOs associated with an interatrial septal aneurysm seem to be more strongly linked to risk of recurrent stroke. Therapeutic options for secondary stroke prevention in the setting of a PFO include antiplatelet therapy, anticoagulation, and percutaneous device closure. Recent randomized clinical trials suggest that percutaneous closure reduces the subsequent risk of stroke in appropriately selected patients, with a large relative benefit but small absolute benefit. Referral for percutaneous PFO closure should therefore be considered in certain patients after a multidisciplinary, patient centered discussion. Areas for future study include structural biomarkers to aid in determining the role of PFO closure in older people with possible PFO associated stroke, the role of direct oral anticoagulants, and very long term outcomes after device closure.

Abstract TP72: Cost Effectiveness Of Smoking-Cessation Interventions Following Ischemic Stroke And Transient Ischemic Attack

Introduction: The cost effectiveness of smoking-cessation interventions after ischemic stroke and TIA has not been evaluated. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of smoking-cessation interventions in this population.

Methods: We constructed a decision tree model to compare brief counseling alone to 3 interventions: varenicline, any pharmacotherapy with intensive counseling, and monetary incentives. Direct health care costs of interventions and outcomes were modeled. The outcomes were recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, and death using a 5-year horizon. Estimates and variance for the base case (42% cessation), costs and effectiveness of interventions, and outcome rates were imputed from the stroke literature. Using standard techniques, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and net-monetary benefits (NMB). An intervention was considered cost effective if the ICER was less than the standard willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or when the NMB was maximized. Sensitivity analyses and a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation modeled the impact of parameter uncertainty, including for the base case cessation rate and costs and effectiveness of interventions (TreeAge Pro).

Results: All three interventions were cost effective based on the ICER: varenicline - $7,422/QALY, pharmacotherapy with counseling - $14,550/QALY, and monetary incentives - $23,280/QALY. In one-way sensitivity analyses, interventions costing up to $1,729 remained cost-effective. In a two-way sensitivity analysis varying the cost and effectiveness of smoking-cessation interventions, all three interventions were cost effective based on NMB (Figure). In 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, smoking-cessation interventions were cost effective 90% of the time, as compared to brief counseling alone.

Conclusion: Smoking-cessation strategies are cost effective in secondary prevention after stroke and TIA.

Abstract WMP55: Short-term Stroke Risk After Emergency Department Treat-and-release Headache Visit

Introduction: When a stroke hospitalization follows soon after an Emergency Department (ED) treat-and-release visit for non-specific neurological complaints, a diagnostic error may have occurred. In this study, we sought to evaluate potential stroke misdiagnoses after ED treat-and-release headache visits.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using state-wide administrative claims data for all ED visits and admissions at nonfederal hospitals in Florida 2005-2018 and New York 2005-2016. Using standard ICD codes, we identified adult patients discharged home from the ED with a benign headache diagnosis (cohort of interest) as well as those with a diagnosis of back pain or renal colic (negative control cohorts). The primary study outcome was hospitalization within 30 days for stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic), defined using validated ICD codes. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess the relationship between the index ED visit reason and stroke hospitalization adjusting for demographics and vascular risk factors.

Results: We identified 1,458,904 patients with an ED treat-and-release headache visit; mean age was 41 (SD: 17) and 70% were female. A total of 2,636 (0.18%) headache patients were hospitalized for stroke within 30 days. Stroke risk was higher among headache patients compared to patients diagnosed with renal colic (HR: 2.7; 95% CI, 2.3-3.1) or back pain (HR: 3.8; 95% CI, 3.6-4.1; Figure). Among patients <40 years of age, stroke risk was even higher among headache as compared to back pain (HR: 10; 95% CI, 7.7-13.1); no strokes occurred in renal colic patients <40 years of age.

Conclusion: Approximately 1 in 500 patients discharged home from the ED with a headache diagnosis had a stroke in the following month. Stroke risk was 3-4 times higher after an ED visit for headache compared to back pain or renal colic. There may be opportunities to reduce diagnostic error among patients with ED visits for headache, particularly for those <40 years of age.

Abstract TMP101: Preoperative Atrial Fibrillation And Risk Of Stroke After Noncardiac Surgery

Objective: To assess rates of postoperative stroke after elective noncardiac surgery in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using all-payer administrative claims data on all non-federal hospitalizations and emergency department visits in 11 states between 2016 and 2018. We included patients hospitalized for elective noncardiac surgery, as defined by a surgical diagnosis related group and major diagnostic category codes. The exposure variable was preoperative AF. The outcome variable was ischemic stroke within 30 days of surgery. We performed survival analyses using Kaplan-Meier cumulative rates and Cox proportional hazards models. We stratified AF patients by their CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score and tested its discrimination using the c-statistic.

Results: We identified 1,301,709 patients undergoing elective noncardiac surgery, of whom 94,363 (7.3%) had preoperative AF. Patients with AF were older (mean age, 73 versus 62 years) and had higher CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores (mean score, 3.2 vs 2.2). We identified 2,893 patients with postoperative stroke. The cumulative rate of postoperative stroke was 0.65% (95% CI, 0.60-0.70%) in patients with AF vs 0.19% (95% CI, 0.18-0.20%) in patients without AF. After adjustment for demographics and vascular risk factors, AF was associated with a higher risk of postoperative stroke (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.5-1.8). Among AF patients, the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score was a good predictor of postoperative stroke (AUC, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.79-0.83). Rates of postoperative stroke among AF patients ranged from <0.1% in those with a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 0-2 to 14% in those with a score of 8 (Figure).

Conclusions: Patients with AF faced a heightened risk of postoperative stroke and this risk varied in proportion to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score.

Abstract TP190: Association Of Age, Sex, Race, Weight, And Height With Biomarkers Of Atrial Cardiopathy In Patients With Embolic Stroke Of Undetermined Source

Introduction: Elevated N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and prolonged P-wave terminal force in V1 (PTFV1) on 12-lead ECG are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke. Age is positively associated with NT-proBNP, men have lower levels than women, and Blacks have lower levels than Whites. Although both weight and height are positively related to risk of atrial fibrillation, both are negatively associated with NT-proBNP. We explored associations among these variables in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS).

Methods: In an ongoing randomized trial of secondary stroke prevention, AtRial Cardiopathy and Antithrombotic Drugs In Prevention After Cryptogenic Stroke (ARCADIA), as of 2021 August, 2616 ESUS patients were consented for the trial and screened for atrial cardiopathy with serum NT-proBNP and PTFV1. Baseline information on age, sex, race, weight, and height were used in sequential linear regression analyses to understand associations with ln(NT-proBNP) and ln(PTFV1).

Results: In age-adjusted models of ln(NT-proBNP), significant negative associations were found for weight (beta -0.004, p=0.02) and height (beta -0.013, p<001). When sex was added to these models, significance was lost for weight and height. In a final model including all of these variables (N=2400), significant associations were found for age (beta 0.044, p<0.001), sex (men with lower levels than women, beta -0.448, p<0.001) and race (Blacks with lower levels than Whites, beta -0.141, p=0.027 and Asians with lower levels than Whites, beta -0.512, p=0.009). In similar sequential models for ln(PTFV1), only race was significant; in a final model, Blacks had higher values than Whites, beta 0.275, p<0.001. No evidence was found in these models to suggest violation of linearity.

Conclusions: In a population of patients with ESUS, associations of weight and height with NT-proBNP are confounded not by age but by sex. Key associations with NT-proBNP include age, sex, and race. In ARCADIA, understanding these associations may be important in individualizing predictions about which ESUS patients with atrial cardiopathy are most likely to benefit from apixaban over aspirin for secondary stroke prevention.

Abstract WP198: Hematological And Embolic Biomarkers And Clinical Outcomes In Patients With Cancer And Ischemic Stroke

Introduction: We previously showed that patients with cancer and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) have higher markers of coagulation, platelet, and endothelial activation, and more circulating microemboli than patients with AIS and no cancer. Herein, we evaluate whether these markers are associated with clinical outcomes in patients with cancer and AIS.

Methods: In the MOST-Cancer prospective study, we enrolled 50 adults with active solid-tumor cancer and AIS at 2 New York hospitals from 2016-2020. We collected blood from participants 72-120 hours after stroke onset. We performed a 30-minute transcranial Doppler (TCD) microemboli detection study a median of 4 days after stroke onset. The exposure variables were hematological markers of coagulation (D-dimer, thrombin-antithrombin), platelet (P-selectin), and endothelial activation (thrombomodulin, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 [sICAM-1], soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 [sVCAM-1]), and the presence of microemboli on TCD. The primary outcome was a composite of recurrent arterial or venous thromboembolism or death. The secondary outcome was recurrent AIS. We used Cox regression to evaluate individual associations between biomarkers and subsequent outcomes.

Results: Median age was 69 years (IQR, 60-76) and 24 participants (48%) were women. The most common cancers were lung (28%) and pancreatic (22%); 86% of participants had distant metastases. During a mean follow-up of 278 days (SD, 367), 43 (86%) participants had the primary outcome of recurrent thromboembolism or death, including 28 (56%) who had recurrent thromboembolism, 13 who had recurrent AIS (26%), and 30 (60%) who died. D-dimer, P-selectin, sICAM-1, sVCAM-1, and microemboli were associated with the composite outcome (Table). Similar results were seen for recurrent AIS.

Conclusion: Markers of hypercoagulability and embolic disease were associated with adverse clinical outcomes in cancer-related stroke.

Abstract 153: Long-Term Risk Of Stroke After Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy Syndrome

Introduction: Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) can cause brain infarction and hemorrhage in the acute phase. We hypothesized that PRES is also associated with an increased long-term risk of stroke.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using statewide all-payer claims data from 2016-2018 for all admissions to nonfederal hospitals in 11 states. Adult patients with PRES were compared to patients with TIA (positive control) and renal colic (negative control), as done in prior studies. The primary outcome was any stroke, and secondary outcomes were ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Diagnoses were ascertained using ICD-10-CM codes. We excluded patients with stroke before and during index admissions for PRES and controls. We used Cox proportional hazards analyses to evaluate associations between PRES and stroke, adjusting for demographics, stroke risk factors, and factors associated with PRES (cancer, kidney disease, rheumatological disease). In a sensitivity analysis, stroke events within 4 weeks of index admissions were excluded.

Results: We identified 3,086 patients with PRES, 85,189 with TIA, and 3,094 with renal colic. Patients with PRES (55±17 years) and renal colic (54±18 years) were younger than those with TIA (72±14 years). Median follow-up was 1.1 years and similar between groups. Stroke incidence was 3.2 per 100 person-years after PRES, 3.8 per 100 person-years after TIA, and 0.4 per 100 person-years after renal colic (Figure). After adjustment, patients with PRES had a similar stroke risk as patients with TIA (HR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.8-1.2), and a higher stroke risk than patients with renal colic (HR, 2.6; 95% CI, 2.0-3.5). Compared to TIA, PRES had a higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 2.2-3.9) and a lower risk of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9). Results were similar with a 4-week washout period.

Conclusions: PRES is associated with an increased risk of future stroke, specifically hemorrhagic stroke.

Abstract TP183: Risk And Predictors Of Relapse After Smoking Cessation In Patients With Ischemic Stroke And Transient Ischemic Attack

Introduction: Smoking cessation is an integral part of secondary prevention after stroke and TIA. Relapse after successful smoking cessation in this population is poorly understood.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort analysis of patients enrolled in the international Insulin Resistance Intervention After Stroke (IRIS) trial, which included 3,876 nondiabetic patients with ischemic stroke or TIA. In IRIS, patients were asked about smoking status at the time of the index event, at randomization, and annually thereafter for 5 years. For this analysis, we included patients who quit smoking by randomization. Patients with active smoking at any follow-up visit were categorized as relapsed. We used time-to-event analysis to estimate cumulative relapse rates. We used univariate Cox proportional hazards regression to assess possible predictors of relapse: demographics, index event type (stroke vs TIA), country of origin, cardiovascular comorbidities, and duration/intensity of smoking.

Results: At the time of stroke/TIA, 1,072 patients were active smokers. By randomization, a median of 3 (IQR, 2-5) months later, 450 (42%) had quit smoking. The mean age of the 450 quitters was 58 years, and 35% were women. They had smoked a median of 20 (IQR, 10-25) cigarettes/day for a median of 40 (IQR, 34-46) years. Over a mean follow-up of 3.8 years, 156 patients relapsed. The 5-year cumulative relapse rate was 38% (95% CI, 34-43%), with 21% (95% CI, 18-25%) relapsing within 1 year (Figure). Age, sex, index event type, duration and intensity of smoking were not associated with relapse. However, patients at US sites (vs non-US sites) were more likely to relapse (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.01-2.10), as were patients with more cardiovascular comorbidities (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.05-1.55; for each additional condition).

Conclusion: Stroke/TIA survivors with early smoking cessation have a high rate of relapse, highlighting a need to engage this at-risk population in sustained cessation interventions.