Individual factors including age, BMI and heritable factors underlie temperature variation in sickness and in health: an observational, multi-cohort study

Background

Aging affects immunity, potentially altering fever response to infection. We assess effects of biological variables on basal temperature, and during COVID-19 infection, proposing an updated temperature threshold for older adults ≥65 years.

Methods

Participants were from 4 cohorts: 1 089 unaffected adult TwinsUK volunteers; 520 adults with emergency admission to a London hospital with RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection; 757 adults with emergency admission to a Birmingham hospital with RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and 3 972 adult community-based COVID Symptom Study participants self-reporting a positive RT-PCR test. Heritability was assessed using saturated and univariate ACE models; mixed-effect and multivariable linear regression examined associations between temperature, age, sex, and body mass index (BMI); multivariable logistic regression examined associations between fever (≥37.8°C) and age; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to identify temperature threshold for adults ≥ 65 years.

Results

Among unaffected volunteers, lower BMI (p = .001), and increasing age (p < .001) was associated with lower basal temperature. Basal temperature showed a heritability of 47% (95% confidence interval 18%–57%). In COVID-19+ participants, increasing age was associated with lower temperatures in Birmingham and community-based cohorts (p < .001). For each additional year of age, participants were 1% less likely to demonstrate a fever ≥37.8°C (OR 0.99; p < .001). Combining healthy and COVID-19+ participants, a temperature of 37.4°C in adults ≥65 years had similar sensitivity and specificity to 37.8°C in adults <65 years for discriminating infection.

Conclusions

Aging affects temperature in health and acute infection, with significant heritability, indicating genetic factors contribute to temperature regulation. Our observations suggest a lower threshold (37.4°C/97.3°F) for identifying fever in older adults ≥65 years.

Estrogen and COVID-19 symptoms: Associations in women from the COVID Symptom Study

It has been widely observed that adult men of all ages are at higher risk of developing serious complications from COVID-19 when compared with women. This study aimed to investigate the association of COVID-19 positivity and severity with estrogen exposure in women, in a population based matched cohort study of female users of the COVID Symptom Study application in the UK. Analyses included 152,637 women for menopausal status, 295,689 women for exogenous estrogen intake in the form of the combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP), and 151,193 menopausal women for hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Data were collected using the COVID Symptom Study in May-June 2020. Analyses investigated associations between predicted or tested COVID-19 status and menopausal status, COCP use, and HRT use, adjusting for age, smoking and BMI, with follow-up age sensitivity analysis, and validation in a subset of participants from the TwinsUK cohort. Menopausal women had higher rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 0.003). COCP-users had lower rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 8.03E-05), with reduction in hospital attendance (P = 0.023). Menopausal women using HRT or hormonal therapies did not exhibit consistent associations, including increased rates of predicted COVID-19 (P = 2.22E-05) for HRT users alone. The findings support a protective effect of estrogen exposure on COVID-19, based on positive association between predicted COVID-19 with menopausal status, and negative association with COCP use. HRT use was positively associated with COVID-19, but the results should be considered with caution due to lack of data on HRT type, route of administration, duration of treatment, and potential unaccounted for confounders and comorbidities.

Blue poo: impact of gut transit time on the gut microbiome using a novel marker

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Gut transit time is a key modulator of host-microbiome interactions, yet this is often overlooked, partly because reliable methods are typically expensive or burdensome. The aim of this single-arm, single-blinded intervention study is to assess (1) the relationship between gut transit time and the human gut microbiome, and (2) the utility of the 'blue dye' method as an inexpensive and scalable technique to measure transit time.

METHODS

We assessed interactions between the taxonomic and functional potential profiles of the gut microbiome (profiled via shotgun metagenomic sequencing), gut transit time (measured via the blue dye method), cardiometabolic health and diet in 863 healthy individuals from the PREDICT 1 study.

RESULTS

We found that gut microbiome taxonomic composition can accurately discriminate between gut transit time classes (0.82 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and longer gut transit time is linked with specific microbial species such as Akkermansia muciniphila, Bacteroides spp and Alistipes spp (false discovery rate-adjusted p values <0.01). The blue dye measure of gut transit time had the strongest association with the gut microbiome over typical transit time proxies such as stool consistency and frequency.

CONCLUSIONS

Gut transit time, measured via the blue dye method, is a more informative marker of gut microbiome function than traditional measures of stool consistency and frequency. The blue dye method can be applied in large-scale epidemiological studies to advance diet-microbiome-health research. Clinical trial registry website https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03479866 and trial number NCT03479866.

Anosmia, ageusia, and other COVID-19-like symptoms in association with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, across six national digital surveillance platforms: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Multiple voluntary surveillance platforms were developed across the world in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, providing a real-time understanding of population-based COVID-19 epidemiology. During this time, testing criteria broadened and health-care policies matured. We aimed to test whether there were consistent associations of symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 test status across three surveillance platforms in three countries (two platforms per country), during periods of testing and policy changes.

METHODS

For this observational study, we used data of observations from three volunteer COVID-19 digital surveillance platforms (Carnegie Mellon University and University of Maryland Facebook COVID-19 Symptom Survey, ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, and the Corona Israel study) targeting communities in three countries (Israel, the UK, and the USA; two platforms per country). The study population included adult respondents (age 18-100 years at baseline) who were not health-care workers. We did logistic regression of self-reported symptoms on self-reported SARS-CoV-2 test status (positive or negative), adjusted for age and sex, in each of the study cohorts. We compared odds ratios (ORs) across platforms and countries, and we did meta-analyses assuming a random effects model. We also evaluated testing policy changes, COVID-19 incidence, and time scales of duration of symptoms and symptom-to-test time.

FINDINGS

Between April 1 and July 31, 2020, 514 459 tests from over 10 million respondents were recorded in the six surveillance platform datasets. Anosmia-ageusia was the strongest, most consistent symptom associated with a positive COVID-19 test (robust aggregated rank one, meta-analysed random effects OR 16·96, 95% CI 13·13-21·92). Fever (rank two, 6·45, 4·25-9·81), shortness of breath (rank three, 4·69, 3·14-7·01), and cough (rank four, 4·29, 3·13-5·88) were also highly associated with test positivity. The association of symptoms with test status varied by duration of illness, timing of the test, and broader test criteria, as well as over time, by country, and by platform.

INTERPRETATION

The strong association of anosmia-ageusia with self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 test was consistently observed, supporting its validity as a reliable COVID-19 signal, regardless of the participatory surveillance platform, country, phase of illness, or testing policy. These findings show that associations between COVID-19 symptoms and test positivity ranked similarly in a wide range of scenarios. Anosmia, fever, and respiratory symptoms consistently had the strongest effect estimates and were the most appropriate empirical signals for symptom-based public health surveillance in areas with insufficient testing or benchmarking capacity. Collaborative syndromic surveillance could enhance real-time epidemiological investigations and public health utility globally.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, National Institute for Health Research, Alzheimer's Society, Wellcome Trust, and Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

Gut microbiome diversity and composition is associated with hypertension in women

OBJECTIVES

Animal studies support a role for the gut microbiota in hypertension development, but large human studies are lacking. Here, we investigated the relationship between hypertension prevalence and gut microbial composition in two cohorts.

METHODS

We included 871 unrelated TwinsUK women with faecal microbiome data (16s rRNA gene sequencing). Multivariable linear models adjusted for age, age2 and BMI as well as MiRKAT models, were used to estimate the association of hypertension with alpha- and beta-diversity metrics. To identify taxa associated with hypertension, a generalized additive model for location scale and shape was computed adjusting for covariates and multiple testing. Results were replicated in 448 women from PREDICT-1.

RESULTS

We found that measures of alpha diversity are significantly lower in hypertensive cases [Beta(95% confidence interval, 95% CI) = -0.05 (-0.095 to -0.004), P = 0.03] and a significant association between beta diversity and hypertension (FDR < 0.05). We identified and replicated two genera associated with hypertension. The genus, Ruminiclostridium 6 was less abundant in hypertension cases [meta-analysis (95% CI) = -0.31 (-0.5 to -0.13), P = 1 × 10-3]. The uncultured microbe Erysipelotrichacea-UCG003 was more abundant in hypertensive cases [meta-analysis (95% CI) = 0.46 (0.3-0.62), P = 1 × 10-4]. We genomically analysed the 16 s rRNA sequence and established a 100% identity match with the 16 s rRNA sequence of the genus Faecalibacillus. We functionally annotated Ruminiclostridium, identifying 83 metabolic pathways, including pathways previously linked to blood pressure regulation.

CONCLUSION

In this large human observation, we show that gut microbiome diversity and composition are associated with hypertension. Our results suggest that targeting the microbiome may be a novel means to prevent or treat hypertension.

Race, ethnicity, community-level socioeconomic factors, and risk of COVID-19 in the United States and the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

There is limited prior investigation of the combined influence of personal and community-level socioeconomic factors on racial/ethnic disparities in individual risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis nested within a prospective cohort of 2,102,364 participants from March 29, 2020 in the United States (US) and March 24, 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK) through December 02, 2020 via the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application. We examined the contribution of community-level deprivation using the Neighborhood Deprivation Index (NDI) and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) to observe racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 incidence. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04331509.

FINDINGS

Compared with non-Hispanic White participants, the risk for a positive COVID-19 test was increased in the US for non-Hispanic Black (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.47) and Hispanic participants (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.33-1.52) and in the UK for Black (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.34), South Asian (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.30-1.49), and Middle Eastern participants (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18-1.61). This elevated risk was associated with living in more deprived communities according to the NDI/IMD. After accounting for downstream mediators of COVID-19 risk, community-level deprivation still mediated 16.6% and 7.7% of the excess risk in Black compared to White participants in the US and the UK, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Our results illustrate the critical role of social determinants of health in the disproportionate COVID-19 risk experienced by racial and ethnic minorities.

Early detection of COVID-19 in the UK using self-reported symptoms: a large-scale, prospective, epidemiological surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Self-reported symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic have been used to train artificial intelligence models to identify possible infection foci. To date, these models have only considered the culmination or peak of symptoms, which is not suitable for the early detection of infection. We aimed to estimate the probability of an individual being infected with SARS-CoV-2 on the basis of early self-reported symptoms to enable timely self-isolation and urgent testing.

METHODS

In this large-scale, prospective, epidemiological surveillance study, we used prospective, observational, longitudinal, self-reported data from participants in the UK on 19 symptoms over 3 days after symptoms onset and COVID-19 PCR test results extracted from the COVID-19 Symptom Study mobile phone app. We divided the study population into a training set (those who reported symptoms between April 29, 2020, and Oct 15, 2020) and a test set (those who reported symptoms between Oct 16, 2020, and Nov 30, 2020), and used three models to analyse the self-reported symptoms: the UK's National Health Service (NHS) algorithm, logistic regression, and the hierarchical Gaussian process model we designed to account for several important variables (eg, specific COVID-19 symptoms, comorbidities, and clinical information). Model performance to predict COVID-19 positivity was compared in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the test set. For the hierarchical Gaussian process model, we also evaluated the relevance of symptoms in the early detection of COVID-19 in population subgroups stratified according to occupation, sex, age, and body-mass index.

FINDINGS

The training set comprised 182 991 participants and the test set comprised 15 049 participants. When trained on 3 days of self-reported symptoms, the hierarchical Gaussian process model had a higher prediction AUC (0·80 [95% CI 0·80-0·81]) than did the logistic regression model (0·74 [0·74-0·75]) and the NHS algorithm (0·67 [0·67-0·67]). AUCs for all models increased with the number of days of self-reported symptoms, but were still high for the hierarchical Gaussian process model at day 1 (0·73 [95% CI 0·73-0·74]) and day 2 (0·79 [0·78-0·79]). At day 3, the hierarchical Gaussian process model also had a significantly higher sensitivity, but a non-statistically lower specificity, than did the two other models. The hierarchical Gaussian process model also identified different sets of relevant features to detect COVID-19 between younger and older subgroups, and between health-care workers and non-health-care workers. When used during different pandemic periods, the model was robust to changes in populations.

INTERPRETATION

Early detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection is feasible with our model. Such early detection is crucial to contain the spread of COVID-19 and efficiently allocate medical resources.

FUNDING

ZOE, the UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, the Wellcome Trust, the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the UK National Institute for Health Research, the UK Medical Research Council, the British Heart Foundation, the Alzheimer's Society, the Chronic Disease Research Foundation, and the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

Anxiety and depression symptoms after COVID-19 infection: results from the COVID Symptom Study app

BACKGROUND

Mental health issues have been reported after SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, comparison to prevalence in uninfected individuals and contribution from common risk factors (e.g., obesity, comorbidities) have not been examined. We identified how COVID-19 relates to mental health in the large community-based COVID Symptom Study.

METHODS

We assessed anxiety and depression symptoms using two validated questionnaires in 413,148 individuals between February and April 2021; 26,998 had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We adjusted for physical and mental pre-pandemic comorbidities, BMI, age, and sex.

FINDINGS

Overall, 26.4% of participants met screening criteria for general anxiety and depression. Anxiety and depression were slightly more prevalent in previously SARS-CoV-2 positive (30.4%) vs. negative (26.1%) individuals. This association was small compared to the effect of an unhealthy BMI and the presence of other comorbidities, and not evident in younger participants (≤40 years). Findings were robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. Association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and anxiety and depression was stronger in individuals with recent (<30 days) vs. more distant (>120 days) infection, suggesting a short-term effect.

INTERPRETATION

A small association was identified between SARS-CoV-2 infection and anxiety and depression symptoms. The proportion meeting criteria for self-reported anxiety and depression disorders is only slightly higher than pre-pandemic.

FUNDING

Zoe Limited, National Institute for Health Research, Chronic Disease Research Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Medical Research Council UK.

Vaccine side-effects and SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination in users of the COVID Symptom Study app in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) and the Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) COVID-19 vaccines have shown excellent safety and efficacy in phase 3 trials. We aimed to investigate the safety and effectiveness of these vaccines in a UK community setting.

METHODS

In this prospective observational study, we examined the proportion and probability of self-reported systemic and local side-effects within 8 days of vaccination in individuals using the COVID Symptom Study app who received one or two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine or one dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. We also compared infection rates in a subset of vaccinated individuals subsequently tested for SARS-CoV-2 with PCR or lateral flow tests with infection rates in unvaccinated controls. All analyses were adjusted by age (≤55 years vs >55 years), sex, health-care worker status (binary variable), obesity (BMI <30 kg/m2vs ≥30 kg/m2), and comorbidities (binary variable, with or without comorbidities).

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, and March 10, 2021, 627 383 individuals reported being vaccinated with 655 590 doses: 282 103 received one dose of BNT162b2, of whom 28 207 received a second dose, and 345 280 received one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Systemic side-effects were reported by 13·5% (38 155 of 282 103) of individuals after the first dose of BNT162b2, by 22·0% (6216 of 28 207) after the second dose of BNT162b2, and by 33·7% (116 473 of 345 280) after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Local side-effects were reported by 71·9% (150 023 of 208 767) of individuals after the first dose of BNT162b2, by 68·5% (9025 of 13 179) after the second dose of BNT162b2, and by 58·7% (104 282 of 177 655) after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Systemic side-effects were more common (1·6 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 2·9 times after the first dose of BNT162b2) among individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection than among those without known past infection. Local effects were similarly higher in individuals previously infected than in those without known past infection (1·4 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 1·2 times after the first dose of BNT162b2). 3106 of 103 622 vaccinated individuals and 50 340 of 464 356 unvaccinated controls tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Significant reductions in infection risk were seen starting at 12 days after the first dose, reaching 60% (95% CI 49-68) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 69% (66-72) for BNT162b2 at 21-44 days and 72% (63-79) for BNT162b2 after 45-59 days.

INTERPRETATION

Systemic and local side-effects after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination occur at frequencies lower than reported in phase 3 trials. Both vaccines decrease the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection after 12 days.

FUNDING

ZOE Global, National Institute for Health Research, Chronic Disease Research Foundation, National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, UK Research and Innovation, American Gastroenterological Association.

Current smoking and COVID-19 risk: results from a population symptom app in over 2.4 million people

BACKGROUND

The association between current tobacco smoking, the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 and the severity of illness is an important information gap.

METHODS

UK users of the Zoe COVID-19 Symptom Study app provided baseline data including demographics, anthropometrics, smoking status and medical conditions, and were asked to log their condition daily. Participants who reported that they did not feel physically normal were then asked by the app to complete a series of questions, including 14 potential COVID-19 symptoms and about hospital attendance. The main study outcome was the development of 'classic' symptoms of COVID-19 during the pandemic defined as fever, new persistent cough and breathlessness and their association with current smoking. The number of concurrent COVID-19 symptoms was used as a proxy for severity and the pattern of association between symptoms was also compared between smokers and non-smokers.

RESULTS

Between 24 March 2020 and 23 April 2020, data were available on 2 401 982 participants, mean (SD) age 43.6 (15.1) years, 63.3% female, overall smoking prevalence 11.0%. 834 437 (35%) participants reported being unwell and entered one or more symptoms. Current smokers were more likely to report symptoms suggesting a diagnosis of COVID-19; classic symptoms adjusted OR (95% CI) 1.14 (1.10 to 1.18); >5 symptoms 1.29 (1.26 to 1.31); >10 symptoms 1.50 (1.42 to 1.58). The pattern of association between reported symptoms did not vary between smokers and non-smokers.

INTERPRETATION

These data are consistent with people who smoke being at an increased risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19.

Geo-social gradients in predicted COVID-19 prevalence in Great Britain: results from 1 960 242 users of the COVID-19 Symptoms Study app

Understanding the geographical distribution of COVID-19 through the general population is key to the provision of adequate healthcare services. Using self-reported data from 1 960 242 unique users in Great Britain (GB) of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app, we estimated that, concurrent to the GB government sanctioning lockdown, COVID-19 was distributed across GB, with evidence of 'urban hotspots'. We found a geo-social gradient associated with predicted disease prevalence suggesting urban areas and areas of higher deprivation are most affected. Our results demonstrate use of self-reported symptoms data to provide focus on geographical areas with identified risk factors.

Association of social distancing and face mask use with risk of COVID-19

Given the continued burden of COVID-19 worldwide, there is a high unmet need for data on the effect of social distancing and face mask use to mitigate the risk of COVID-19. We examined the association of community-level social distancing measures and individual face mask use with risk of predicted COVID-19 in a large prospective U.S. cohort study of 198,077 participants. Individuals living in communities with the greatest social distancing had a 31% lower risk of predicted COVID-19 compared with those living in communities with poor social distancing. Self-reported 'always' use of face mask was associated with a 62% reduced risk of predicted COVID-19 even among individuals living in a community with poor social distancing. These findings provide support for the efficacy of mask-wearing even in settings of poor social distancing in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Despite mass vaccination campaigns in many parts of the world, continued efforts at social distancing and face mask use remain critically important in reducing the spread of COVID-19.

Meal-induced inflammation: postprandial insights from the Personalised REsponses to DIetary Composition Trial (PREDICT) study in 1000 participants

BACKGROUND

Meal-induced metabolic changes trigger an acute inflammatory response, contributing to chronic inflammation and associated diseases.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to characterize variability in postprandial inflammatory responses using traditional (IL-6) and novel [glycoprotein acetylation (GlycA)] biomarkers of inflammation and dissect their biological determinants with a focus on postprandial glycemia and lipemia.

METHODS

Postprandial (0-6 h) glucose, triglyceride (TG), IL-6, and GlycA responses were measured at multiple intervals after sequential mixed-nutrient meals (0 h and 4 h) in 1002 healthy adults aged 18-65 y from the PREDICT (Personalised REsponses to DIetary Composition Trial) 1 study, a single-arm dietary intervention study. Measures of habitual diet, blood biochemistry, gut microbiome composition, and visceral fat mass (VFM) were also collected.

RESULTS

The postprandial changes in GlycA and IL-6 concentrations were highly variable between individuals. Participants eliciting an increase in GlycA and IL-6 (60% and 94% of the total participants, respectively) had mean 6-h increases of 11% and 190%, respectively. Peak postprandial TG and glucose concentrations were significantly associated with 6-h GlycA (r = 0.83 and r = 0.24, respectively; both P < 0.001) but not with 6-h IL-6 (both P > 0.26). A random forest model revealed the maximum TG concentration was the strongest postprandial TG predictor of postprandial GlycA and structural equation modeling revealed that VFM and fasting TG were most strongly associated with fasting and postprandial GlycA. Network Mendelian randomization demonstrated a causal link between VFM and fasting GlycA, mediated (28%) by fasting TG. Individuals eliciting enhanced GlycA responses had higher predicted cardiovascular disease risk (using the atherosclerotic disease risk score) than the rest of the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The variable postprandial increases in GlycA and their associations with TG metabolism highlight the importance of modulating TG in concert with obesity to reduce GlycA and associated low-grade inflammation-related diseases.This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03479866.

Precision Nutrition and Reliability of Continuous Glucose Monitors: Insights From the PREDICT Study

Objectives

The use of continuous glucose monitors (CGM) provides a more in-depth characterization of glycemic variation in response to environmental stimuli, but concerns about CGM reliability for categorizing glycemic responses to foods and meals exist. We sought to evaluate the concordance and reliability of two simultaneously worn CGM devices on postprandial glycemic responses.

Methods

We examined the correlation and coefficient of variation of the 2h glucose incremental area under the curve (iAUC) for 21,527 standardized and ad libitum meals consumed by 368 healthy participants from the PREDICT-1 Study. Included participants were simultaneously monitored with either two Abbott Freestyle Libre Pro devices (n = 339, same device group) or the combination of Abbott Freestyle Libre Pro and Dexcom G6 devices (n = 29, inter device group).

Within-subject 2 h iAUC glucose meal rankings for paired CGM devices were assessed using the Kendal-tau measure for ranking concordance.

Results

The correlation coefficient of the 2 h glucose iAUC for paired CGM devices was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.96 to 0.97) for same device comparisons and 0.78 (0.76 to 0.80) for inter device comparisons. The coefficient of variation of the 2 h glucose iAUC for standardized meals was 5.1% (interquartile range, 2.2 to 10.1) for same device comparisons and 15.1% (5.9 to 31.2) for inter device comparisons. Similar results were observed for ad libitum meals with same and inter device coefficients of variation of 8.9% (3.3 to 21.3) and 24.2% (10.2 to 53.1%), respectively. Meal rankings for the 2 h glucose iAUC were concordant between paired CGM devices, with a mean Kendall rank correlation coefficient of 0.86 (sd = 0.07) for same device comparisons and 0.63 (sd = 0.011) for inter device comparisons.

Conclusions

These data provide evidence for repeatability and concordance for ranking of glycemic responses, and suggest that factors other than CGM sensors mostly drive within-subject meal categorization. Our findings are critical for identifying sources of variability in glycemic responses for the eventual implementation of precision nutrition.

Funding Sources

Zoe Global, UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust. National Institutes of Health.

Adherence to Healthy Diet and Risk and Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Infections: A Community Survey Study Within the COVID Symptom Study Application

Objectives

To examine the association of adherence to a healthy diet with risk and severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Methods

We included participants from the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application enrolled in March 2020 from the UK and the US who provided information about their sociodemographic characteristics and risk factors for COVID-19 at baseline, and subsequently reported any symptoms they were experiencing over follow-up. We administered a supplementary diet and lifestyle survey between August and September 2020 to ascertain diet quality before the pandemic using a validated 35-item short food frequency questionnaire. We defined incident predicted cases of COVID-19 over follow-up using a validated symptom-based model and a severe case of COVID-19 as

a report of hospitalization with requirement of oxygen support. We used Cox models to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for predicted COVID-19 and severe COVID-19 after adjusting for potential sociodemographic and behavioral confounders.

Results

Over 4,044,344 person-months of follow-up, we recorded 33,360 incident COVID-19 cases. Compared with individuals in the lowest quartile of the diet quality score, high diet quality was associated with a reduced risk of predicted COVID-19 (adjusted HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.97) and reduced risk of severe COVID-19 (adjusted HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.99). We found evidence of significant interactions between diet quality and socioeconomic status on COVID-19 risk, in which the attributable risk proportion of the joint effect due to the interaction was 30% (95% CI 2.8 to 57.2). Among participants with higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation, COVID-19 incidence rate per 1,000 person-months was 7.5% for those with low diet quality (95% CI 7.1 to 7.8) compared with 5.5% for those with a high diet quality (95% CI 5.2 to 5.9).

Conclusions

These findings suggest that adherence to a healthy diet is associated with lower risk of COVID-19 infection and severity. The apparent beneficial association of a high-quality diet may be particularly evident among individuals with a higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation.

Funding Sources

Zoe Global, UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness

Recent CO2 levels promote increased production of the toxin parthenin in an invasive Parthenium hysterophorus biotype

Recent carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations promoted higher parthenin concentrations in an invasive Parthenium hysterophorus biotype. Mean concentrations of parthenin, an allelopathic and defensive sesquiterpene lactone, were 49% higher at recent (~400 ppm) than at mid-twentieth-century (~300 ppm) CO₂ concentrations, but did not vary in a non-invasive biotype, suggesting that recent increases in atmospheric CO₂ may have already altered the chemistry of this destructive weed, potentially contributing to its invasive success.

Patient-reported outcomes from STARTRK-2: a global phase II basket study of entrectinib for ROS1 fusion-positive non-small-cell lung cancer and NTRK fusion-positive solid tumours

BACKGROUND

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are increasingly relevant endpoints in clinical trials, contributing to our understanding of risk-benefit profiles, in addition to efficacy and safety data. We investigated the impact of entrectinib on patient-reported symptoms, functioning, and health-related quality of life.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

STARTRK-2 is a phase II basket study in patients with locally advanced/metastatic neurotrophic receptor tyrosine kinase 1/2/3 (NTRK1/2/3) and ROS proto-oncogene 1 (ROS1) fusion-positive solid tumours. PROs (prespecified secondary endpoint) were evaluated using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality-of-life questionnaire (QLQ-C30), lung cancer module (QLQ-LC13), and colorectal cancer module (QLQ-CR29), and the EuroQoL 5-Dimension 3-Level instruments, completed before cycle 1 day 1 and each subsequent 4-week cycle of entrectinib dosing, and the end of treatment. Adverse events and treatment-related symptoms were assessed in the safety analysis (SA)-PRO population. Tumour-related symptoms, functioning, and global health status were assessed in the efficacy analysis (EA)-PRO population. Data cut-offs: 31 October 2018 NTRK cohort; 01 May 2019 ROS1 cohort.

RESULTS

SA-PRO populations comprised patients with NTRK fusion-positive solid tumours (N = 88) or ROS1 fusion-positive non-small-cell lung cancer (N = 180) who received one or more doses of entrectinib, completed PRO questionnaires on cycle 1 day 1 and answered one or more questions on-study. EA-PRO populations (N = 71) and (N = 145), respectively, comprised SA-PRO patients with measurable baseline disease. Moderate-to-high baseline global health status scores were maintained in EA-PRO populations during treatment. Role and physical functioning scores were moderate-to-high at baseline, with trends towards clinical improvement during treatment. Both cohorts reported low-to-moderate symptom burden at baseline, which was maintained or trended towards clinically meaningful improvement. Symptoms commonly associated with cancer treatment (e.g. nausea, fatigue) remained stable or improved during treatment. All SA-PRO patients experienced one or more adverse events, most frequently constipation or diarrhoea.

CONCLUSIONS

PRO findings were consistent with the favourable safety profile of entrectinib, and further reinforce the positive benefit-risk profile of this treatment, indicating minimal overall treatment burden.