Investigating the impact of TB case-detection strategies and the consequences of false positive diagnosis through mathematical modelling

Background

Increasing case notifications is one of the top programmatic priorities of National TB Control Programmes (NTPs). To find more cases, NTPs often need to consider expanding TB case-detection activities to populations with increasingly low prevalence of disease. Together with low-specificity diagnostic algorithms, these strategies can lead to an increasingly high number of false positive diagnoses, which has important adverse consequences.

Methods

We apply TIME, a widely-used country-level model, to quantify the expected impact of different case-finding strategies under two scenarios. In the first scenario, we compare the impact of implementing two different diagnostic algorithms (higher sensitivity only versus higher sensitivity and specificity) to reach programmatic screening targets. In the second scenario, we examine the impact of expanding coverage to a population with a lower prevalence of disease. Finally, we explore the implications of modelling without taking into consideration the screening of healthy individuals. Outcomes considered were changes in notifications, the ratio of additional false positive to true positive diagnoses, the positive predictive value (PPV), and incidence.

Results

In scenario 1, algorithm A of prolonged cough and GeneXpert yielded fewer additional notifications compared to algorithm B of any symptom and smear microscopy (n = 4.0 K vs 13.8 K), relative to baseline between 2017 and 2025. However, algorithm A resulted in an increase in PPV, averting 2.4 K false positive notifications thus resulting in a more efficient impact on incidence. Scenario 2 demonstrated an absolute decrease of 11% in the PPV as intensified case finding activities expanded into low-prevalence populations without improving diagnostic accuracy, yielding an additional 23 K false positive diagnoses for an additional 1.3 K true positive diagnoses between 2017 and 2025. Modelling the second scenario without taking into account screening amongst healthy individuals overestimated the impact on cases averted by a factor of 6.

Conclusion

Our findings show that total notifications can be a misleading indicator for TB programme performance, and should be interpreted carefully. When evaluating potential case-finding strategies, NTPs should consider the specificity of diagnostic algorithms and the risk of increasing false-positive diagnoses. Similarly, modelling the impact of case-finding strategies without taking into account potential adverse consequences can overestimate impact and lead to poor strategic decision-making.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3239-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Global tuberculosis targets and milestones set for 2016-2035: definition and rationale

BACKGROUND

Global tuberculosis (TB) targets were set as part of the World Health Organization's End TB Strategy (2016-2035) and the Sustainable Development Goals (2016-2030).

OBJECTIVE

To define and explain the rationale for these targets.

DESIGN

Scenarios for plausible reductions in TB deaths and cases were developed using empirical evidence from best-performing countries and modelling of the scale-up of under-used interventions and hypothetical TB vaccines. Results were discussed at consultations in 2012 and 2013. A final proposal was presented to the World Health Assembly in 2014 and unanimously endorsed by all Member States.

RESULTS

The 2030 targets are a 90% reduction in TB deaths and 80% reduction in TB incidence compared with 2015 levels. The 2035 targets are for reductions of 95% and 90%, respectively. A third target-that no TB-affected households experience catastrophic costs due to the disease by 2020-was also agreed.

CONCLUSION

The global TB targets and milestones set for the period 2016-2035 are ambitious. Achieving them requires concerted action on several fronts, but two things are fundamental: 1) progress towards universal health coverage to ensure that everyone with TB can access high-quality treatment; and 2) substantial investment in research and development for new tools to prevent TB disease among the approximately 1.7 billion people infected.

Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes

BACKGROUND

Uganda changed its antiretroviral therapy guidelines in 2014, increasing the CD4 threshold for antiretroviral therapy initiation from 350 cells/μl to 500 cells/μl. We investigate what effect this change in policy is likely to have on HIV incidence, morbidity, and programme costs, and estimate the cost-effectiveness of the change over different time horizons.

METHODS

We used a complex individual-based model of HIV transmission and antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda. 100 model fits were generated by fitting the model to 51 demographic, sexual behaviour, and epidemiological calibration targets, varying 96 input parameters, using history matching with model emulation. An additional 19 cost and disability weight parameters were varied during the analysis of the model results. For each model fit, the model was run to 2030, with and without the change in threshold to 500 cells/μl.

RESULTS

The change in threshold led to a 9.7% (90% plausible range: 4.3%-15.0%) reduction in incidence in 2030, and averted 278,944 (118,452-502,790) DALYs, at a total cost of $28M (-$142M to +$195M). The cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted fell over time, from $3238 (-$125 to +$29,969) in 2014 to $100 (-$499 to +$785) in 2030. The change in threshold was cost-effective (cost <3×Uganda's per capita GDP per DALY averted) by 2018, and highly cost-effective (cost

CONCLUSIONS

Model results suggest that the change in threshold is unlikely to have been cost-effective to date, but is likely to be highly cost-effective in Uganda by 2030. The time horizon needs to be chosen carefully when projecting intervention effects. Large amounts of uncertainty in our results demonstrates the need to comprehensively incorporate uncertainties in model parameterisation.

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Key Words Collapse

MESH Headings

• Anti-HIV Agents/economics
• Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use
• CD4 Lymphocyte Count
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Female
• HIV Infections/drug therapy
• HIV Infections/economics
• HIV Infections/epidemiology
• Health Policy/economics
• Humans
• Incidence
• Male
• Models, Economic
• Quality-Adjusted Life Years
• Time Factors
• Uganda/epidemiology

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Grants

• G0601721 Medical Research Council
• MR/N014693/1 Medical Research Council
• PDF-2012-05-258 Department of Health
• MR/K012126/1 Medical Research Council
• MR/J005088/1 Medical Research Council

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Transmission events revealed in tuberculosis contact investigations in London

Contact tracing is a key part of tuberculosis prevention and care, aiming to hasten diagnosis and prevent transmission. The proportion of case-contact pairs for which recent transmission occurred and the typical timespans between the index case and their contact accessing care are not known; we aimed to calculate these. We analysed individual-level TB contact tracing data, collected in London from 20/01/2011-31/12/2015, linked to tuberculosis surveillance and MIRU-VNTR 24-locus strain-typing information. Of pairs of index cases and contacts diagnosed with active tuberculosis, 85/314 (27%) had strain typing data available for both. Of these pairs, 79% (67/85) shared indistinguishable isolates, implying probable recent transmission. Of pairs in which both contact and the index case had a social risk factor, 11/11 (100%) shared indistinguishable isolates, compared to 55/75 (75%) of pairs in which neither had a social risk factor (P = 0.06). The median time interval between the index case and their contact accessing care was 42 days (IQR: 16, 96). As over 20% of pairs did probably not involve recent transmission between index case and contact, the effectiveness of contact tracing is not necessarily limited to those circumstances where the index case has transmitted disease to their close contacts.

Small contribution of gold mines to the ongoing tuberculosis epidemic in South Africa: a modeling-based study

BACKGROUND

Gold mines represent a potential hotspot for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission and may be exacerbating the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic in South Africa. However, the presence of multiple factors complicates estimation of the mining contribution to the TB burden in South Africa.

METHODS

We developed two models of TB in South Africa, a static risk model and an individual-based model that accounts for longer-term trends. Both models account for four populations - mine workers, peri-mining residents, labor-sending residents, and other residents of South Africa - including the size and prevalence of latent TB infection, active TB, and HIV of each population and mixing between populations. We calibrated to mine- and country-level data and used the static model to estimate force of infection (FOI) and new infections attributable to local residents in each community compared to other residents. Using the individual-based model, we simulated a counterfactual scenario to estimate the fraction of overall TB incidence in South Africa attributable to recent transmission in mines.

RESULTS

We estimated that the majority of FOI in each community is attributable to local residents: 93.9% (95% confidence interval 92.4-95.1%), 91.5% (91.4-91.5%), and 94.7% (94.7-94.7%) in gold mining, peri-mining, and labor-sending communities, respectively. Assuming a higher rate of Mtb transmission in mines, 4.1% (2.6-5.8%), 5.0% (4.5-5.5%), and 9.0% (8.8-9.1%) of new infections in South Africa are attributable to gold mine workers, peri-mining residents, and labor-sending residents, respectively. Therefore, mine workers with TB disease, who constitute ~ 2.5% of the prevalent TB cases in South Africa, contribute 1.62 (1.04-2.30) times as many new infections as TB cases in South Africa on average. By modeling TB on a longer time scale, we estimate 63.0% (58.5-67.7%) of incident TB disease in gold mining communities to be attributable to recent transmission, of which 92.5% (92.1-92.9%) is attributable to local transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Gold mine workers are estimated to contribute a disproportionately large number of Mtb infections in South Africa on a per-capita basis. However, mine workers contribute only a small fraction of overall Mtb infections in South Africa. Our results suggest that curtailing transmission in mines may have limited impact at the country level, despite potentially significant impact at the mining level.

An explanation for the low proportion of tuberculosis that results from transmission between household and known social contacts

We currently have little idea where Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission occurs in high incidence settings. Molecular studies suggest that only around 8-19% of transmission to adults occurs within-household, or between known social-contacts. This contrasts with findings from social-contact studies, which show that substantial proportions of contact time occur in households, workplaces and schools. A mathematical model of social-contact behaviour and Mtb transmission was developed, incorporating variation in susceptibility and infectiousness. Three types of contact were simulated: household, repeated (individuals outside household contacted repeatedly with daily-monthly frequency) and non-repeated. The model was parameterised using data from Cape Town, South Africa, on mean and variance in contact numbers and contact durations, by contact type, and fitted to an estimate of overdispersion in numbers of secondary cases ('superspreading') in Cape Town. Household, repeated, and non-repeated contacts contributed 36%, 13%, and 51% of contact time, and 13%, 8%, and 79% of disease, respectively. Results suggest contact saturation, exacerbated by long disease durations and superspreading, cause the high proportion of transmission between non-repeated contacts. Household and social-contact tracing is therefore unlikely to reach most tuberculosis cases. A better understanding of transmission locations, and methods to identify superspreaders, are urgently required to improve tuberculosis prevention strategies.

Impact of Targeted Tuberculosis Vaccination Among a Mining Population in South Africa: A Model-Based Study

Optimizing the use of new tools, such as vaccines, may play a crucial role in reaching global targets for tuberculosis (TB) control. Some of the most promising candidate vaccines target adults, although high-coverage mass vaccinations may be logistically more challenging among this population than among children. Vaccine-delivery strategies that target high-risk groups or settings might yield proportionally greater impact than do those that target the general population. We developed an individual-based TB transmission model representing a hypothetical population consisting of people who worked in South African gold mines or lived in associated labor-sending communities. We simulated the implementation of a postinfection adult vaccine with 60% efficacy and a mean effect duration of 10 years. We then compared the impact of a mine-targeted vaccination strategy, in which miners were vaccinated while in the mines, with that of a community-targeted strategy, in which random individuals within the labor-sending communities were vaccinated. Mine-targeted vaccination averted an estimated 0.37 TB cases per vaccine dose compared with 0.25 for community-targeted vaccination, for a relative efficacy of 1.46 (95% range, 1.13-1.91). The added benefit of mine-targeted vaccination primarily reflected the disproportionate demographic burden of TB among the population of adult males as a whole. As novel vaccines for TB are developed, venue-based vaccine delivery that targets high-risk demographic groups may improve both vaccine feasibility and the impact on transmission.

Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic costs.

METHODS

We estimated the reduction in tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs with an aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services in India and South Africa from 2016 to 2035, in line with the End TB Strategy. Using modelled incidence and mortality for tuberculosis and patient-incurred cost estimates, we investigated three intervention scenarios: improved treatment of drug-sensitive tuberculosis; improved treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; and expansion of access to tuberculosis care through intensified case finding (South Africa only). We defined tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs as the sum of direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect costs to patients exceeding 20% of total annual household income. Intervention effects were quantified as changes in the number of households incurring catastrophic costs and were assessed by quintiles of household income.

FINDINGS

In India and South Africa, improvements in treatment for drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis could reduce the number of households incurring tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs by 6-19%. The benefits would be greatest for the poorest households. In South Africa, expanded access to care could decrease household tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs by 5-20%, but gains would be seen largely after 5-10 years.

INTERPRETATION

Aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services in India and South Africa could lessen, although not eliminate, the catastrophic financial burden on affected households.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Modelling the social and structural determinants of tuberculosis: opportunities and challenges

INTRODUCTION

Despite the close link between tuberculosis (TB) and poverty, most mathematical models of TB have not addressed underlying social and structural determinants.

OBJECTIVE

To review studies employing mathematical modelling to evaluate the epidemiological impact of the structural determinants of TB.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and personal libraries to identify eligible articles. We extracted data on the modelling techniques employed, research question, types of structural determinants modelled and setting.

RESULTS

From 232 records identified, we included eight articles published between 2008 and 2015; six employed population-based dynamic TB transmission models and two non-dynamic analytic models. Seven studies focused on proximal TB determinants (four on nutritional status, one on wealth, one on indoor air pollution, and one examined overcrowding, socio-economic and nutritional status), and one focused on macro-economic influences.

CONCLUSIONS

Few modelling studies have attempted to evaluate structural determinants of TB, resulting in key knowledge gaps. Despite the challenges of modelling such a complex system, models must broaden their scope to remain useful for policy making. Given the intersectoral nature of the interrelations between structural determinants and TB outcomes, this work will require multidisciplinary collaborations. A useful starting point would be to focus on developing relatively simple models that can strengthen our knowledge regarding the potential effect of the structural determinants on TB outcomes.

Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study

Background

UNAIDS calls for fewer than 500,000 new HIV infections/year by 2020, with treatment-as-prevention being a key part of their strategy for achieving the target. A better understanding of the contribution to transmission of people at different stages of the care pathway can help focus intervention services at populations where they may have the greatest effect. We investigate this using Uganda as a case study.

Methods

An individual-based HIV/ART model was fitted using history matching. 100 model fits were generated to account for uncertainties in sexual behaviour, HIV epidemiology, and ART coverage up to 2015 in Uganda. A number of different ART scale-up intervention scenarios were simulated between 2016 and 2030. The incidence and proportion of transmission over time from people with primary infection, post-primary ART-naïve infection, and people currently or previously on ART was calculated.

Results

In all scenarios, the proportion of transmission by ART-naïve people decreases, from 70% (61%–79%) in 2015 to between 23% (15%–40%) and 47% (35%–61%) in 2030. The proportion of transmission by people on ART increases from 7.8% (3.5%–13%) to between 14% (7.0%–24%) and 38% (21%–55%). The proportion of transmission by ART dropouts increases from 22% (15%–33%) to between 31% (23%–43%) and 56% (43%–70%).

Conclusions

People who are currently or previously on ART are likely to play an increasingly large role in transmission as ART coverage increases in Uganda. Improving retention on ART, and ensuring that people on ART remain virally suppressed, will be key in reducing HIV incidence in Uganda.

Universal test, treat, and keep: improving ART retention is key in cost-effective HIV control in Uganda

Background

With ambitious new UNAIDS targets to end AIDS by 2030, and new WHO treatment guidelines, there is increased interest in the best way to scale-up ART coverage. We investigate the cost-effectiveness of various ART scale-up options in Uganda.

Methods

Individual-based HIV/ART model of Uganda, calibrated using history matching. 22 ART scale-up strategies were simulated from 2016 to 2030, comprising different combinations of six single interventions (1. increased HIV testing rates, 2. no CD4 threshold for ART initiation, 3. improved ART retention, 4. increased ART restart rates, 5. improved linkage to care, 6. improved pre-ART care). The incremental net monetary benefit (NMB) of each intervention was calculated, for a wide range of different willingness/ability to pay (WTP) per DALY averted (health-service perspective, 3% discount rate).

Results

For all WTP thresholds above $210, interventions including removing the CD4 threshold were likely to be most cost-effective. At a WTP of $715 (1 × per-capita-GDP) interventions to improve linkage to and retention/re-enrolment in HIV care were highly likely to be more cost-effective than interventions to increase rates of HIV testing. At higher WTP (> ~ $1690), the most cost-effective option was ‘Universal Test, Treat, and Keep’ (UTTK), which combines interventions 1–5 detailed above.

Conclusions

Our results support new WHO guidelines to remove the CD4 threshold for ART initiation in Uganda. With additional resources, this could be supplemented with interventions aimed at improving linkage to and/or retention in HIV care. To achieve the greatest reductions in HIV incidence, a UTTK policy should be implemented.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2420-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An evaluation of tuberculosis contact investigations against national standards

BACKGROUND

Contact tracing is a key element in England's 2015 collaborative TB strategy, although proposed indicators of successful contact tracing remain undescribed.

METHODS

We conducted descriptive and multivariable analyses of contact tracing of TB cases in London between 1 July 2012 and 31 December 2015 using cohort review data from London's TB Register, identifying characteristics associated with improved indicators and yield.

RESULTS

Of the pulmonary TB cases notified, 60% (2716/4561) had sufficient information for inclusion. Of these, 91% (2481/2716) had at least 1 contact (median: 4/case (IQR: 2-6)) identified, with 86% (10 251/11 981) of these contacts evaluated. 4.1% (177/4328), 1.3% (45/3421) and 0.70% (51/7264) of evaluated contacts of pulmonary smear-positive, pulmonary smear-negative and non-pulmonary cases, respectively, had active disease. Cases who were former prisoners or male were less likely to have at least one contact identified than those never imprisoned or female, respectively. Cases diagnosed at clinics with more directly observed therapy or social workers were more likely to have one or more contacts identified. Contacts screened at a different clinic to their index case or of male index cases were less likely to be evaluated than those screened at the same clinic or of women, respectively; yield of active disease was similar by sex. 10% (490/4850) of evaluated child contacts had latent TB infection.

CONCLUSIONS

These are the first London-wide estimates of TB contact tracing indicators which are important for monitoring the strategy's success and informing risk assessment of index cases. Understanding why differences in indicators occur between groups could improve contact tracing outcomes.

Wildlife-livestock interactions and risk areas for cross-species spread of bovine tuberculosis

The transmission of diseases between livestock and wildlife can be a hindrance to effective disease control. Maintenance hosts and contact rates should be explored to further understand the transmission dynamics at the wildlife-livestock interface. Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been shown to have wildlife maintenance hosts and has been confirmed as present in the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Queen Elizabeth National Park (QENP) in Uganda since the 1960s. The first aim of this study was to explore the spatio-temporal spread of cattle illegally grazing within the QENP recorded by the Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) rangers in a wildlife crime database. Secondly, we aimed to quantify wildlife-livestock interactions and cattle movements, on the border of QENP, using a longitudinal questionnaire completed by 30 livestock owners. From this database, 426 cattle sightings were recorded within QENP in 8 years. Thirteen (3.1%) of these came within a 300 m-4 week space-time window of a buffalo herd, using the recorded GPS data. Livestock owners reported an average of 1.04 (95% CI 0.97-1.11) sightings of Uganda kob, waterbuck, buffalo or warthog per day over a 3-month period, with a rate of 0.22 (95% CI 0.20-0.25) sightings of buffalo per farmer per day. Reports placed 85.3% of the ungulate sightings and 88.0% of the buffalo sightings as further than 50 m away. Ungulate sightings were more likely to be closer to cattle at the homestead (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.6) compared with the grazing area. Each cattle herd mixed with an average of five other cattle herds at both the communal grazing and watering points on a daily basis. Although wildlife and cattle regularly shared grazing and watering areas, they seldom came into contact close enough for aerosol transmission. Between species infection transmission is therefore likely to be by indirect or non-respiratory routes, which is suspected to be an infrequent mechanism of transmission of BTB. Occasional cross-species spillover of infection is possible, and the interaction of multiple wildlife species needs further investigation. Controlling the interface between wildlife and cattle in a situation where eradication is not being considered may have little impact on BTB disease control in cattle.

The TB vaccine H56+IC31 dose-response curve is peaked not saturating: Data generation for new mathematical modelling methods to inform vaccine dose decisions

INTRODUCTION

In vaccine development, dose-response curves are commonly assumed to be saturating. Evidence from tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, H56+IC31 shows this may be incorrect. Mathematical modelling techniques may be useful in efficiently identifying the most immunogenic dose, but model calibration requires longitudinal data across multiple doses and time points.

AIMS

We aimed to (i) generate longitudinal response data in mice for a wide range of H56+IC31 doses for use in future mathematical modelling and (ii) test whether a 'saturating' or 'peaked' dose-response curve, better fit the empirical data.

METHODS

We measured IFN-γ secretion using an ELISPOT assay in the splenocytes of mice who had received doses of 0, 0.1, 0.5, 1, 5 or 15μg H56+IC31. Mice were vaccinated twice (at day 0 and 15) and responses measured for each dose at 8 time points over a 56-day period following first vaccination. Summary measures Area Under the Curve (AUC), peak and day 56 responses were compared between dose groups. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria was used to test which dose-response curve best fitted empirical data, at different time ranges.

RESULTS

(i) All summary measures for dose groups 0.1 and 0.5μg were higher than the control group (p<0.05). The AUC was higher for 0.1 than 15μg dose. (ii) There was strong evidence that the dose-response curve was peaked for all time ranges, and the best dose is likely to be lower than previous empirical experiments have evaluated.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that the highest, safe dose may not always optimal in terms of immunogenicity, as the dose-response curve may not saturate. Detailed longitudinal dose range data for TB vaccine H56+IC31 reveals response dynamics in mice that should now be used to identify optimal doses for humans using clinical data, using new data collection and mathematical modelling.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment shortening: a model-based analysis

Background

Despite improvements in treatment success rates for tuberculosis (TB), current six-month regimen duration remains a challenge for many National TB Programmes, health systems, and patients. There is increasing investment in the development of shortened regimens with a number of candidates in phase 3 trials.

Methods

We developed an individual-based decision analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical four-month regimen for first-line treatment of TB, assuming non-inferiority to current regimens of six-month duration. The model was populated using extensive, empirically-collected data to estimate the economic impact on both health systems and patients of regimen shortening for first-line TB treatment in South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Tanzania. We explicitly considered ‘real world’ constraints such as sub-optimal guideline adherence.

Results

From a societal perspective, a shortened regimen, priced at USD1 per day, could be a cost-saving option in South Africa, Brazil, and Tanzania, but would not be cost-effective in Bangladesh when compared to one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Incorporating ‘real world’ constraints reduces cost-effectiveness. Patient-incurred costs could be reduced in all settings. From a health service perspective, increased drug costs need to be balanced against decreased delivery costs. The new regimen would remain a cost-effective option, when compared to each countries’ GDP per capita, even if new drugs cost up to USD7.5 and USD53.8 per day in South Africa and Brazil; this threshold was above USD1 in Tanzania and under USD1 in Bangladesh.

Conclusion

Reducing the duration of first-line TB treatment has the potential for substantial economic gains from a patient perspective. The potential economic gains for health services may also be important, but will be context-specific and dependent on the appropriate pricing of any new regimen.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2064-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation

Complex stochastic models are commonplace in epidemiology, but their utility depends on their calibration to empirical data. History matching is a (pre)calibration method that has been applied successfully to complex deterministic models. In this work, we adapt history matching to stochastic models, by emulating the variance in the model outputs, and therefore accounting for its dependence on the model's input values. The method proposed is applied to a real complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus in Uganda with 22 inputs and 18 outputs, and is found to increase the efficiency of history matching, requiring 70% of the time and 43% fewer simulator evaluations compared with a previous variant of the method. The insight gained into the structure of the human immunodeficiency virus model, and the constraints placed on it, are then discussed.

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models

BACKGROUND

The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa.

METHODS

We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016-35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice.

FINDINGS

Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective.

INTERPRETATION

Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Systematic review of mathematical models exploring the epidemiological impact of future TB vaccines

Mathematical models are useful for assessing the potential epidemiological impact of future tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models estimating the epidemiological impact of future human TB vaccines. PubMed, Embase and WHO Global Health Library were searched, 3-stage manual sifted, and citation- and reference-tracked, identifying 23 papers. An adapted quality assessment tool was developed, with a resulting median study quality score of 20/28. The literature remains divided as to whether vaccines effective pre- or post-infection would provide greatest epidemiological impact. However, all-age or adolescent/adult targeted prevention of disease vaccines achieve greater and more rapid impact than neonatal vaccines. Mass campaigns alongside routine neonatal vaccination can have profound additional impact. Economic evaluations found TB vaccines overwhelmingly cost-effective, particularly when targeted to adolescents/adults. The variability of impact by setting, age group and vaccine characteristics must be accounted for in the development and delivery of future TB vaccines.

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models

Background

The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements.

Methods

11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy.

Findings

Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31–62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64–82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis.

Interpretation

Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

The potential impact of BCG vaccine supply shortages on global paediatric tuberculosis mortality

BACKGROUND

The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is provided to over 100 million neonates annually to protect against childhood tuberculosis (TB). Recent BCG manufacturing interruptions highlight global supply risks. We estimated the potential impact of BCG shortfalls on global paediatric (<15 years) TB mortality.

METHODS

A static mathematical model was employed to estimate the number of paediatric TB deaths avoided by usual levels of BCG coverage, and potential additional TB deaths in the first 15 years of life due to 1-year BCG supply shortfalls of 6.3 % (as occurred in 2015) to 27.6 % (as anticipated without mitigating action in 2015) assuming no catch-up campaigns.

RESULTS

BCG coverage without shortfalls, estimated at 90 % globally, was estimated to avoid 117,132 (95 % uncertainty range (UR): 5049-306,911) TB deaths globally per birth cohort in the first 15 years of life. An estimated 11,713 (UR: 505-30,691) additional TB deaths would occur in the first 15 years of life per 10 % (26 million dose) annual supply shortfall. A 16.5 million dose (6.3 %) shortfall as reported at the close of 2015, reflecting 84 % global coverage, was estimated as associated with 7433 (95 % UR: 320-19,477) excess TB deaths in the affected cohort in the first 15 years. A possible 24,914 (UR: 1074-65,278) additional deaths were avoided due to prompt shortfall reduction measures in 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

BCG shortages could greatly increase paediatric TB mortality. Although rapid action in 2015 minimised BCG shortfalls, avoiding a large number of potential additional deaths, the possible public health impact of even relatively small shortfalls highlights the critical importance of ensuring secure future manufacturing capacity and global BCG supply continuity.

A Systematic Review of Published Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys Collecting Behavioral and Biologic Data

Reporting key details of respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey implementation and analysis is essential for assessing the quality of RDS surveys. RDS is both a recruitment and analytic method and, as such, it is important to adequately describe both aspects in publications. We extracted data from peer-reviewed literature published through September, 2013 that reported collected biological specimens using RDS. We identified 151 eligible peer-reviewed articles describing 222 surveys conducted in seven regions throughout the world. Most published surveys reported basic implementation information such as survey city, country, year, population sampled, interview method, and final sample size. However, many surveys did not report essential methodological and analytical information for assessing RDS survey quality, including number of recruitment sites, seeds at start and end, maximum number of waves, and whether data were adjusted for network size. Understanding the quality of data collection and analysis in RDS is useful for effectively planning public health service delivery and funding priorities.

The Distribution of Fitness Costs of Resistance-Conferring Mutations Is a Key Determinant for the Future Burden of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Model-Based Analysis

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance poses a serious challenge for the control of tuberculosis in many settings. It is well established that the expected future trend in resistance depends on the reproductive fitness of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis. However, the variability in fitness between strains with different resistance-conferring mutations has been largely ignored when making these predictions.

METHODS

We developed a novel approach for incorporating the variable fitness costs of drug resistance-conferring mutations and for tracking this distribution of fitness costs over time within a transmission model. We used this approach to describe the effects of realistic fitness cost distributions on the future prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis.

RESULTS

The shape of the distribution of fitness costs was a strong predictor of the long-term prevalence of resistance. While, as expected, lower average fitness costs of drug resistance-conferring mutations were associated with more severe epidemics of drug-resistant tuberculosis, fitness distributions with greater variance also led to higher levels of drug resistance. For example, compared to simulations in which the fitness cost of resistance was fixed, introducing a realistic amount of variance resulted in a 40% increase in prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis after 20 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The differences in the fitness costs associated with drug resistance-conferring mutations are a key determinant of the future burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Future studies that can better establish the range of fitness costs associated with drug resistance-conferring mutations will improve projections and thus facilitate better public health planning efforts.