China's adaptive response to climate change through air-conditioning

Studies have shown that the soaring demand for air conditioners in recent years is closely related to the worsening global warming; however, little evidence has been provided for China. This study uses weekly data of 343 Chinese cities to investigate how air conditioner sales respond to climate variability. We detected a U-shaped relationship between air-conditioning and temperature. An additional day with average temperature above 30°C increases weekly sales by 16.2%. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the adoption of air-conditioning is different for south and north China. By combining our estimates with shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, we project China's mid-century air conditioner sales and the resulting electricity demand. Under the fossil-fueled development scenario, air conditioner sales in the Pearl River Delta would rise by 71% (65.7%-87.6%) in summer. On average, the per capita electricity demand for air-conditioning will surge by 28% (23.2%-35.4%) in China by mid-century.

The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia

Between 2019 and 2020, during the country's hottest and driest year on record, Australia experienced a dramatic bushfire season, with catastrophic ecological and environmental consequences. Several studies highlighted how such abrupt changes in fire regimes may have been in large part a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic transformations. Here, we analyze the monthly evolution of the burned area in Australia from 2000 to 2020, obtained via satellite imaging through the MODIS platform. We find that the 2019-2020 peak is associated with signatures typically found near critical points. We introduce a modeling framework based on forest-fire models to study the properties of these emergent fire outbreaks, showing that the behavior observed during the 2019-2020 fire season matches the one of a percolation transition, where system-size outbreaks appear. Our model also highlights the existence of an absorbing phase transition that might be eventually crossed, after which the vegetation cannot recover.

Acceptance of meat reduction policies in Switzerland

The aim of this study was to analyze the acceptance of different policy measures affecting meat consumption in Switzerland. We conducted qualitative interviews with leading stakeholders and elaborated 37 policy measures for reducing meat consumption. In a standardized survey, we analyzed the acceptance of these measures and important preconditions for their implementation. Measures with potentially the biggest direct leverage, such as a VAT increase on meat products, were highly rejected. We found high levels of acceptance for measures that do not directly affect meat consumption but have the potential for significant changes of meat consumption in the longer run - such as research investment and sustainable diet education. Furthermore, some measures with considerable short-term effects were widely accepted (e.g., stricter animal welfare standards, ban of meat advertisements). These measures could be a promising starting point for policy makers aiming at a transformation of the food system toward lower levels of meat consumption.

Decreased surface and bottom salinity and elevated bottom temperature in the Northern Baltic Sea over the past six decades

Temperature and salinity are key factors in controlling marine habitats and gas fluxes. Finnish and Swedish temperature and salinity monitoring data from the northern Baltic Sea since the 1960s, and Argo buoy data from the eastern Gotland Basin and the Bothnian Sea from 2012 to 2021 were examined using linear trend analysis. Since the 1960's near-bottom temperature has increased by 0.75-2.9 °C (0.013-0.115 °C/a) and surface salinity declined by 0.31-1.14 units (0.005-0.019/a). Surface temperature trends at monitoring stations were negative (16 cases out of 33) but deemed unreliable. Near-bottom salinity has declined by 0.35-1.45 units (0.007-0.025/a), except in the northern Baltic Proper and the central-eastern Gulf of Finland. Most rapid increases in near-bottom temperature have occurred after 1993, especially in the northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland. Argo data corroborated declining surface salinity in the eastern Gotland Basin, increasing deep-water temperature in the eastern Gotland Basin and the Bothnian Sea and increasing deep-water salinity in the eastern Gotland Basin. Argo data from 2013 to 2021 indicated deep-water temperature increase in the Gotland basin was more rapid than the concomitant salinity increase and is probably related to global change.

Trajectories of nutrients concentrations and ratios in the French coastal ecosystems: 20 years of changes in relation with large-scale and local drivers

Along with their important diversity, coastal ecosystems receive various amounts of nutrients, principally arising from the continent and from the related human activities (mainly industrial and agricultural activities). During the 20th century, nutrients loads have increased following the increase of both the global population and need of services. Alongside, climate change including temperature increase or atmospheric circulation change has occurred. These processes, Ecosystem state changes are hard to monitor and predict. To study the long-term changes of nutrients concentrations in coastal ecosystems, eleven French coastal ecosystems were studied over 20 years as they encompass large climatic and land pressures, representative of temperate ecosystems, over a rather small geographical area. Both univariate (time series decomposition) and multivariate (relationships between ecosystems and drivers) statistical analyses were used to determine ecosystem trajectories as well as typologies of ecosystem trajectories. It appeared that most of the French coastal ecosystems exhibited trajectories towards a decrease in nutrients concentrations. Differences in trajectories mainly depended on continental and human influences, as well as on climatic regimes. One single ecosystem exhibited very different trajectories, the Arcachon Bay with an increase in nutrients concentrations. Ecosystem trajectories based on ordination techniques were proven to be useful tools to monitor ecosystem changes. This study highlighted the importance of local environments and the need to couple uni- and multi-ecosystem studies. Although the studied ecosystems were influenced by both local and large-scale climate, by anthropogenic activities loads, and that their trajectories were mostly similar based on their continental influence, non-negligible variations resulted from their internal functioning.

Marked shifts of harmful algal blooms in the Bohai Sea linked with combined impacts of environmental changes

The Bohai Sea, a semi-enclosed inland sea in China and an important mariculture region, has experienced extensive harmful algal blooms (HABs) and their negative impacts for several decades. To investigate the changes of HABs and their potential drivers over time and space, a dataset of 230 HAB events (1952-2017), along with corresponding environmental data (1990-2017) was compiled. The frequency of HAB events in the Bohai Sea has increased over time but plateaued in the last decade, and our analysis showed that history of HABs in the Bohai Sea could be categorized into three periods based on their frequency, scale, and HAB-forming species. The seasonal window of HAB events has started earlier and lasted longer, and the main hotspot has moved from Bohai Bay to coastal waters of Qinhuangdao over time. There were marked shifts in the representative HAB-forming microalgae, from dinoflagellates in the first period (before 2000) to haptophytes in the second period (2000-2009), and pelagophytes in the third period (2009 onwards). These community changes are accompanied by a trend toward diversification of HAB-forming microalgae, decrease in cell-size, and increase in negative impacts. Statistical analyses indicate that long-term changes in HABs in the Bohai Sea are linked with the combined effects of climate change, eutrophication and mariculture development. The results of the present study require to refine future monitoring programs, develop adaptive management strategies and predictive models for HABs in the Bohai Sea.

The global distribution and environmental drivers of the soil antibiotic resistome

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the global distribution and environmental drivers of key microbial functional traits such as antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). Soils are one of Earth's largest reservoirs of ARGs, which are integral for soil microbial competition, and have potential implications for plant and human health. Yet, their diversity and global patterns remain poorly described. Here, we analyzed 285 ARGs in soils from 1012 sites across all continents and created the first global atlas with the distributions of topsoil ARGs.

RESULTS

We show that ARGs peaked in high latitude cold and boreal forests. Climatic seasonality and mobile genetic elements, associated with the transmission of antibiotic resistance, were also key drivers of their global distribution. Dominant ARGs were mainly related to multidrug resistance genes and efflux pump machineries. We further pinpointed the global hotspots of the diversity and proportions of soil ARGs.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, our work provides the foundation for a better understanding of the ecology and global distribution of the environmental soil antibiotic resistome. Video Abstract.

Differential responses of the seed germination of three functional groups to low temperature and darkness in a typical steppe, Northern China

Seed germination is a key stage in the life history of plants, which has a crucial effect on plant community structure. Climate change has substantially altered the surface soil temperature and light availability, which can affect seed germination. However, whether the seed germination of different functional groups is affected by the interactions of light and temperature remains unclear. Under laboratory conditions, we examined the effects of low temperature and darkness, as well as their interaction, on the seed germination of 16 species belonging to three plant functional groups (annual and biennials, perennial grasses, and perennial forbs) in a typical steppe, Northern China. We found that low temperature had a significant negative effect on seed germination of all species. Low temperature significantly decreased the final germination percentage and germinative force of the three plant functional groups, and the germination duration of perennial grasses. Darkness significantly decreased the germinative force of perennial forbs and total seeds, and the germination duration of perennial grasses. The interactive effects of light and temperature on the seed final germination percentage and germinative force of perennial grass indicated that darkness strengthened the inhibitory effect of low temperature on the seed germination of the grass functional group. Our study indicate that the seed germination of different plant functional groups varied greatly in response to changing environmental conditions. Our results suggest that future climate change could alter the regeneration and species composition of plant communities through changing seed germination.

Technological avenues and market mechanisms to accelerate methane and nitrous oxide emissions reductions

Strategies targeting methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions are critical to meeting global climate targets. Existing literature estimates the emissions of these gases from specific sectors, but this knowledge must be synthesized to prioritize and incentivize CH₄ and N₂O mitigation. Accordingly, we review emissions sources and mitigation strategies in all key sectors (fuel extraction and combustion, landfilling, agriculture, wastewater treatment, and chemical industry) and the role of carbon markets in reducing emissions. The most accessible reduction opportunities are in the hydrocarbon extraction and waste sectors, where half (>3 Gt-CO₂e/year) of the emissions in these sectors could be mitigated at no net cost. In total, 60% of CH₄ emissions can be mitigated at less than $50/t-CO₂. Expanding the scope of carbon markets to include these emissions could provide cost-effective decarbonization through 2050. We provide recommendations for carbon markets to improve emissions reductions and set prices to appropriately incentivize mitigation.

Threats of COVID-19 arouse public awareness of climate change risks

Public climate change awareness is indispensable to dealing with climate change threats. Understanding whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on individuals’ climate change risk perception would thus be critical to green economic recovery. We conducted a longitudinal survey study in China when the pandemic was at its height and when it was mitigated. The cross-lagged analysis confirmed our assumed “arousal” effect of perceived COVID-19 risks on climate change risk awareness. We further tested and verified the proposed “dual-pathway” mechanisms of affective generalization (i.e., negative affective states aroused by COVID-19 “spillover” to the assessment of climate change risk) and cognitive association (i.e., the outbreak of COVID-19 awakens people’s recognition of the human-nature-climate issues) via multiple mediation analyses. Our results implied that climate policies could be integrated into pandemic control, and that the public should be more awakened to confront multiple crises with proper guidance.

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Public COVID-19 risk perception arouses their climate change awareness

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A longitudinal survey in China was conducted to verify this arousal effect

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Generalized negative affect states explain the effect

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Cognitive association also explains the effect

Effects of changes in UV-B radiation levels on biofilm-forming organisms commonly found in cultural heritage surfaces

Accurate measuring and monitoring methods available since the 1980s have shown that the amount of Ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation reaching the Earth's surface has increased as a result of degradation of the ozone layer. Since the adoption of the Montreal Protocol in 1987, ozone levels have been recovering successfully. However, in the context of the current climate change, other factors such as changes in cloud patterns and an increased incidence of natural disasters (e.g. fires) may be disrupting this recovery. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of different UV-B radiation levels on biofilms colonising heritage monuments. For this purpose, the effects of current UV-B levels on a biofilm composed of Synechocystis sp. (a cyanobacterium), Bracteacoccus minor (a green alga) and Fusarium sp. (a fungus) were compared at three points along a South-North transect: Portugal, Galicia (NW Spain) and Ireland (from highest to lowest UV-B radiation, respectively). Increased levels of UV-B radiation caused changes in the growth, physiological state and composition of subaerial biofilms, with cyanobacteria being more resistant than green algae to high levels of UV-B. A reduction of fungal growth and extracellular polymer substances (EPS) production was also observed, related to the reduction of biofilm aggregation at high UV-B levels.

Limited behavioural effects of ocean acidification on a Mediterranean anemone goby (Gobius incognitus) chronically exposed to elevated CO2 levels

An in situ reciprocal transplant experiment was carried around a volcanic CO2 vent to evaluate the anti-predator responses of an anemone goby species exposed to ambient (∼380 μatm) and high (∼850 μatm) CO2 sites. Overall, the anemone gobies displayed largely unaffected behaviors under high-CO2 conditions suggesting an adaptive potential of Gobius incognitus to ocean acidification (OA) conditions. This is also supported by its 3-fold higher density recorded in the field under high CO2. However, while fish exposed to ambient conditions showed an expected reduction in the swimming activity in the proximity of the predator between the pre- and post-exposure period, no such changes were detected in any of the other treatments where fish experienced acute and long-term high CO2. This may suggest an OA effect on the goby antipredator strategy. Our findings contribute to the ongoing debate over the need for realistic predictions of the impacts of expected increased CO2 concentration on fish, providing evidence from a natural high CO2 system.

Transcriptomic stability or lability explains sensitivity to climate stressors in coralline algae

Background

Crustose coralline algae (CCA) are calcifying red macroalgae that play important ecological roles including stabilisation of reef frameworks and provision of settlement cues for a range of marine invertebrates. Previous research into the responses of CCA to ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA) have found magnitude of effect to be species-specific. Response to OW and OA could be linked to divergent underlying molecular processes across species.

Results

Here we show Sporolithon durum, a species that exhibits low sensitivity to climate stressors, had little change in metabolic performance and did not significantly alter the expression of any genes when exposed to temperature and pH perturbations. In contrast, Porolithon onkodes, a major coral reef builder, reduced photosynthetic rates and had a labile transcriptomic response with over 400 significantly differentially expressed genes, with differential regulation of genes relating to physiological processes such as carbon acquisition and metabolism. The differential gene expression detected in P. onkodes implicates possible key metabolic pathways, including the pentose phosphate pathway, in the stress response of this species.

Conclusions

We suggest S. durum is more resistant to OW and OA than P. onkodes, which demonstrated a high sensitivity to climate stressors and may have limited ability for acclimatisation. Understanding changes in gene expression in relation to physiological processes of CCA could help us understand and predict how different species will respond to, and persist in, future ocean conditions predicted for 2100.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-022-08931-9.

Long-term nitrogen deposition enhances microbial capacities in soil carbon stabilization but reduces network complexity

BACKGROUND

Anthropogenic activities have increased the inputs of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (N) into terrestrial ecosystems, affecting soil carbon stability and microbial communities. Previous studies have primarily examined the effects of nitrogen deposition on microbial taxonomy, enzymatic activities, and functional processes. Here, we examined various functional traits of soil microbial communities and how these traits are interrelated in a Mediterranean-type grassland administrated with 14 years of 7 g m^-2 year^-1 of N amendment, based on estimated atmospheric N deposition in areas within California, USA, by the end of the twenty-first century.

RESULTS

Soil microbial communities were significantly altered by N deposition. Consistent with higher aboveground plant biomass and litter, fast-growing bacteria, assessed by abundance-weighted average rRNA operon copy number, were favored in N deposited soils. The relative abundances of genes associated with labile carbon (C) degradation (e.g., amyA and cda) were also increased. In contrast, the relative abundances of functional genes associated with the degradation of more recalcitrant C (e.g., mannanase and chitinase) were either unchanged or decreased. Compared with the ambient control, N deposition significantly reduced network complexity, such as average degree and connectedness. The network for N deposited samples contained only genes associated with C degradation, suggesting that C degradation genes became more intensely connected under N deposition.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose a conceptual model to summarize the mechanisms of how changes in above- and belowground ecosystems by long-term N deposition collectively lead to more soil C accumulation. Video Abstract.

Frontloading of stress response genes enhances robustness to environmental change in chimeric corals

Background

Chimeras are genetically mixed entities resulting from the fusion of two or more conspecifics. This phenomenon is widely distributed in nature and documented in a variety of animal and plant phyla. In corals, chimerism initiates at early ontogenic states (larvae to young spat) and results from the fusion between two or more closely settled conspecifics. When compared to genetically homogenous colonies (non-chimeras), the literature has listed ecological and evolutionary benefits for traits at the chimeric state, further positioning coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue instrument. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying this suggestion remain unknown.

Results

To address this question, we developed field monitoring and multi-omics approaches to compare the responses of chimeric and non-chimeric colonies acclimated for 1 year at 10-m depth or exposed to a stressful environmental change (translocation from 10- to 2-m depth for 48h). We showed that chimerism in the stony coral Stylophora pistillata is associated with higher survival over a 1-year period. Transcriptomic analyses showed that chimeras lose transcriptomic plasticity and constitutively express at higher level (frontload) genes responsive to stress. This frontloading may prepare the colony to face at any time environmental stresses which explain its higher robustness.

Conclusions

These results show that chimeras are environmentally robust entities with an enhanced ability to cope with environmental stress. Results further document the potential usefulness of chimeras as a novel reef restoration tool to enhance coral adaptability to environmental change, and confirm that coral chimerism can be an evolutionary rescue instrument.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12915-022-01371-7.

Identifying and modelling key physiological traits that confer tolerance or sensitivity to ozone in winter wheat

Tropospheric ozone threatens crop production in many parts of the world, especially in highly populated countries in economic transition. Crop models suggest substantial global yield losses for wheat, but typically such models fail to address differences in ozone responses between tolerant and sensitive genotypes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify physiological traits contributing to yield losses or yield stability under ozone stress in 18 contrasting wheat cultivars that had been pre-selected from a larger wheat population with known ozone tolerance. Plants were exposed to season-long ozone fumigation in open-top chambers at an average ozone concentration of 70 ppb with three additional acute ozone episodes of around 150 ppb. Compared to control conditions, average yield loss was 18.7 percent, but large genotypic variation was observed ranging from 2.7 to 44.6 percent. Foliar chlorophyll content represented by normalized difference vegetation index and net CO₂ assimilation rate of young leaves during grain filling were the physiological traits most strongly correlated with grain yield losses or stability. Accumulative effects of chronic ozone exposure on photosynthesis were more detrimental for grain yield than instantaneous effects of acute ozone shocks, or accelerated senescence of older leaves represented by changes in the ratio of brown leaf area/green leaf area index. We used experimental data of two selected tolerant or sensitive varieties, respectively, to parametrize the LINTULCC2 crop model expanded with an ozone response routine. By specifying parameters representing the distinct physiological responses of contrasting genotypes, we simulated yield losses of 7 percent (tolerant) or 33 percent (sensitive). By considering genotypic differences in ozone response models, this study helps to improve the accuracy of simulation studies, estimate the effects of adaptive breeding, and identify physiological traits for the breeding of ozone tolerant wheat varieties that could deliver stable yields despite ozone exposure.

Interactive effects of tropospheric ozone and blast disease (Magnaporthe oryzae) on different rice genotypes

Rising tropospheric ozone concentrations can cause rice yield losses and necessitate the breeding of ozone-tolerant rice varieties. However, ozone tolerance should not compromise the resistance to important biotic stresses such as the rice blast disease. Therefore, we investigated the interactive effects of ozone and rice blast disease on nine different rice varieties in an experiment testing an ozone treatment, blast inoculation, and their interaction. Plants were exposed to an ozone concentration of 100 ppb for 7 h per day or ambient air throughout the growth period. Half of the plants were simultaneously infected with rice blast inoculum. Grain yield was significantly reduced in the blast treatment (17%) and ozone treatment (37%), while the combination of both stresses did not further decrease grain yields compared to ozone alone. Similar trends occurred for physiological traits such as vegetation indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photochemical reflectance index (PRI), Lichtenthaler index 2 (Lic2), and anthocyanin reflectance index 1 (ARI1), as well as stomatal conductance and lipid peroxidation. Ozone exposure mitigated the formation of visible blast symptoms, while blast inoculation did not significantly affect visible ozone symptoms. Although different genotypes showed contrasting responses to the two types of stresses, no systematic pattern was observed regarding synergies or trade-offs under the two types of stresses. Therefore, we conclude that despite the similarities in physiological stress responses to ozone and blast, the tolerance to these stresses does not appear to be genetically linked in rice.

The sensitivity of aquatic microbial communities to a complex agricultural contaminant depends on previous drought conditions

In intermittent rivers, which represent a prominent part of worldwide rivers, aquatic organisms are exposed to sequential disturbances including flow cessation, potentially associated with water warming, desiccation process and flow resumption. At flow resumption, pollutants stored in soil and washed by rainfalls can reach fresh waters. The interaction between contamination and river intermittency is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed at understanding in what extent the intensity of dry period combined or not to water warming drives the sensitivity of aquatic communities to a complex agricultural run-off (ARO) during rewetting. Phototrophic biofilms, at the basis of freshwater food webs, were chosen as a model of community. Biofilms grown in laboratory were first exposed to a disturbance crossing two temperature conditions (not warmed, 22°C or warmed, 32°C) and three dry periods (no drying, short (3 days), or long (3 months)). Then they were exposed to a chemical mix of nitrates, copper and 3 pesticides at 6 gradual concentrations. Various descriptors associated with biofilm structure and function were assessed one week after ARO addition. When undisturbed biofilms were exposed to ARO, they shifted toward a more heterotrophic state as they lost algal richness and diversity, and gross primary production tended to decrease. Warming alone only slightly modified the sensitivity of biofilms to ARO, with lower effects on algal richness and a trend to increase the effect on gross primary production. In contrast, the association of warming and a dry period strongly modified the sensitivity to ARO, certainly due to the selection of generalist species and/or physiological acclimation inducted by the first disturbance. This study emphasizes the importance of considering water intermittency in the management of the ecological risk of chemicals in aquatic ecosystems.

Decadal biodiversity trends in rivers reveal recent community rearrangements

While it is recognized that biodiversity currently declines at a global scale, we still have an incomplete understanding of local biodiversity trends under global change. To address this deficiency, we examined the recent decadal trends in water quality and biodiversity (taxonomic and functional) of key river organisms (diatoms, macroinvertebrates and fish) in France. We implemented regression, RLQ and fourth-corner analyses. Our results showed that nutrient loads tended to decrease, diatom richness tended to decline and macoinvertebrate richness tended to increase. The recovery of sensitive taxa in all three groups suggested a successful outcome of water quality management in France over the past decades. Our study further revealed consistent rearrangements within river communities, with a decrease in the ratio of planktonic to benthic diatoms, and corresponding functional changes in macroinvertebrate and fish trait composition, indicative of a trophic cascade in response to changes in environmental conditions.

Ocean warming and increased salinity threaten Bostrychia (Rhodophyta) species from genetically divergent populations

Increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere have resulted in global change, such as ocean warming and sea level rise. Increased salinity in estuaries is expected as a result of sea level rise and warming. Thus, we analysed the interactive effects of increased temperature and salinity on multiple physiological responses of Bostrychia montagnei and B. calliptera from two biogeographic provinces, Tropical Southwestern Atlantic (TSA) and Warm Temperate Southwestern Atlantic (WTSA). Macroalgae were cultured under three salinities (15, 25 and 35 PSU) and three temperatures: mean sea surface temperature (SST: 27 °C for TSA and 24 °C for WTSA), an RCP8.5 ocean warming scenario (SST + 5 °C), and a maximum temperature to test the algal upper thermal tolerance limits (RCP8.5 + 2 °C). Macroalgae from both localities decreased their growth under increased temperature and salinity. RCP8.5 + 2 °C was lethal for both macroalgae from TSA. RCP8.5 and RCP8.5 + 2 °C at 35 PSU were lethal for B. calliptera from WTSA, due to the interactive effects between increased temperature and salinity. Overall, increased salinity decreased the effective quantum yield and relative electron transport rate in algal photosynthesis. Our results demonstrated that the macroalgae synthesized proteins, carbohydrates (polysaccharides and low molecular weight carbohydrates), and antioxidants to tolerate detrimental temperatures and salinities. Our results also demonstrated that the macroalgae adjusted their pigment contents (phycobiliproteins, total carotenoids, and chlorophyll a) for efficient light-harvesting under thermal and saline stress. Our findings suggest that ocean warming and increased salinity in estuaries will be detrimental to B. montagnei and B. calliptera populations from both biogeographic provinces, especially to those from TSA that already live closer to their upper thermal tolerance limits.

Unravelling the dependence of a wild bee on floral diversity and composition using a feeding experiment

We investigated nutrition as a potential mechanism underlying the link between floral diversity/composition and wild bee performance. The health, resilience, and fitness of bees may be limited by a lack of nutritionally balanced larval food (pollen), influencing the entire population, even if adults are not limited nutritionally by the availability and quality of their food (mainly nectar). We hypothesized that the nutritional quality of bee larval food is indirectly connected to the species diversity of pollen provisions and is directly driven by the pollen species composition. Therefore, the accessibility of specific, nutritionally desirable key plant species for larvae might promote bee populations. Using a fully controlled feeding experiment, we simulated different pollen resources that could be available to bees in various environments, reflecting potential changes in floral species diversity and composition that could be caused by landscape changes. Suboptimal concentrations of certain nutrients in pollen produced by specific plant species resulted in reduced bee fitness. The negative effects were alleviated when scarce nutrients were added to these pollen diets. The scarcity of specific nutrients was associated with certain plant species but not with plant diversity. Thus, one of the mechanisms underlying the decreased fitness of wild bees in homogenous landscapes may be nutritional imbalance, i.e., the scarcity of specific nutrients associated with the presence of certain plant species and not with species diversity in pollen provisions eaten by larvae. Accordingly, we provide a conceptual representation of how the floral species composition and diversity can impact bee populations by affecting fitness-related life history traits. Additionally, we suggest that mixes of 'bee-friendly' plants used to improve the nutritional base for wild bees should be composed considering the local flora to supplement bees with vital nutrients that are scarce in the considered environment.

Increasing global urban exposure to flooding: An analysis of long-term annual dynamics

An improved understanding of global Urban Exposure to Flooding (UEF) is essential for developing risk-reduction strategies for sustainable urban development. This study is the first to assess the long-term historical global UEF at a fine spatial resolution (i.e., 30 m) and annual temporal frequency, with consideration of smaller urban areas in the exposure assessment compared to those using coarse resolution data. We assessed the UEF by investigating the spatially explicit urban expansion in the 100-year floodplain extents. The global UEF increased more than four-fold from 16,443 km² in 1985 to 92,233 km² in 2018 with accelerated temporal trends. The most notable growth in UEF occurred in Asia (74.1%), followed by Europe (11.6%), Northern America (8.7%), Africa (2.9%), Southern America (2.2%), and Australia (0.5%). Notably, China and US were the two countries with the largest UEF, accounting for about 61.5% of global growth in UEF. In addition, only 1.2% of global floodplains were occupied by urban expansion by 2018, whereas this percentage reached 20% in the basins of Western Europe, Eastern Asia, and Northeastern US. Moreover, although the floodplains only accounted for 5.5% of the global land areas, 12.6% of the urban expansion occurred in the floodplains from 1985 to 2018, with the most rapid increases in the basins in Southeastern and Eastern China. Our findings highlight that the trends of accelerated increasing urban exposure to flooding have been occurring for at least the past three decades.

Unraveling the invisible leptospirosis in mainland Southeast Asia and its fate under climate change

Leptospirosis is a neglected waterborne zoonosis of growing concern in tropical and low-income regions. Endemic in Southeast Asia, its distribution and environmental factors such as climate controlling its dynamics remain poorly documented. In this paper, we investigate for the first time the current and future leptospirosis burden at a local scale in mainland Southeast Asia. We adjusted machine-learning models on incidence reports from the Thai surveillance system to identify environmental determinants of leptospirosis. The explanatory variables tested in our models included climate, topographic, land cover and soil variables. The model performing the best in cross-validation was used to estimate the current incidence regionally in Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos. It then allowed to predict the spatial distribution of leptospirosis future burden from 2021 to 2100 based on an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model projections and 4 Shared Socio-economics Pathways ranging from the most optimistic to the no-climate policy outcomes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Leptospirosis incidence was best estimated by 10 environmental variables: four landscape-, four rainfall-, two temperature-related variables. Of all tested scenario, the worst-case scenario of climate change (SSP5-8.5) surprisingly appeared as the best-case scenario for the future of leptospirosis since it would induce a significant global decline in disease incidence in Southeast Asia mainly driven by the increasing temperatures. These global patterns are however contrasted regionally with some regions showing increased incidence in the future. Our work highlights climate and the environment as major drivers of leptospirosis incidence in Southeast Asia. Applying our model to regions where leptospirosis is not routinely monitored suggests an overlooked burden in the region. As our model focuses on leptospirosis responses to environmental drivers only, some other factors, such as poverty, lifestyle or behavioral changes, could further influence these estimated future patterns.

Impacts of land-use change and urban development on carbon sequestration in tropical seagrass meadow sediments

Seagrass meadows store significant carbon stocks at a global scale, but land-use change and other anthropogenic activities can alter the natural process of organic carbon (C_org) accumulation. Here, we assessed the carbon accumulation history of two seagrass meadows in Zanzibar (Tanzania) that have experienced different degrees of disturbance. The meadow at Stone Town has been highly exposed to urban development during the 20th century, while the Mbweni meadow is located in an area with relatively low impacts but historical clearing of adjacent mangroves. The results showed that the two sites had similar sedimentary C_org accumulation rates (22-25 g m^-2 yr^-1) since the 1940s, while during the last two decades (∼1998 until 2018) they exhibited 24-30% higher accumulation of C_org, which was linked to shifts in C_org sources. The increase in the δ¹³C isotopic signature of sedimentary C_org (towards a higher seagrass contribution) at the Stone Town site since 1998 points to improved seagrass meadow conditions and C_org accumulation capacity of the meadow after the relocation of a major sewage outlet in the mid-1990s. In contrast, the decrease in the δ¹³C signatures of sedimentary C_org in the Mbweni meadow since the early 2010s was likely linked to increased C_org run-off of mangrove/terrestrial material following mangrove deforestation. This study exemplifies two different pathways by which land-based human activities can alter the carbon storage capacity of seagrass meadows (i.e. sewage waste management and mangrove deforestation) and showcases opportunities for management of vegetated coastal C_org sinks.

Effects of multiple global change factors on soil microbial richness, diversity and functional gene abundances: A meta-analysis

Soil microbial richness, diversity, and functional gene abundance are crucial factors affecting belowground ecosystem functions; however, there is still a lack of systematic understanding of their responses to global change. Here, we conducted a worldwide meta-analysis using 1071 observation data concerning the effects of global change factors (GCFs), including warming (W), increased precipitation (PPT+), decreased precipitation (PPT-), elevated CO₂ concentration (eCO₂), and nitrogen deposition (N), to evaluate their individual, combined, and interactive effects on soil microbial properties across different groups and ecosystems. Across the dataset, eCO₂ increased microbial richness and diversity by 40.5% and 4.6%, respectively; warming and N addition decreased the abundance of denitrification functional genes (nirS, nirK, and nozS); N addition had a greater impact on soil C-cycling functional genes than on N-cycling ones. Long-term precipitation change was conducive to the increase in soil microbial richness, and fungal richness change was more sensitive than bacterial richness, but the sensitivity of bacteria richness to N addition was positively correlated with experimental duration. Soil microbial richness, diversity, and functional gene abundances could be significantly affected by individual or multiple GCF changes, and their interactions are mainly additive. W×eCO₂ on microbial diversity, and N×PPT+ and W×N on N-cycling functional gene abundance showed synergistic interactions. Based on the limitations of the collected data and the findings, we suggest designing experiments with multiple GCFs and long experimental durations and incorporating the effects and interactions of multiple drivers into ecosystem models to accurately predict future soil microbial properties and functions under future global changes.