Photohydroionisation for disinfection of poultry litter

1. This study evaluated photohydroionisation efficiency on the disinfection of new shavings used as substrate for litter in the poultry industry, pre-inoculated with bacterial, fungal and viral agents.2. Each replicate consisted of 250 g of new shavings sterilised by autoclaving, challenged with bacterial (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Salmonella enterica, serovar Abony), fungal (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and viral inoculum (Gumboro disease virus). The experiment consisted of six replicates at four times (0, 1, 5 or 10 min exposure) of photohydroionisation. The disinfection process was performed in a bench photohydroionisation device with four ultraviolet lamps. The agents inoculated in the shavings were analysed after the disinfection process.3. The counts of enterobacteria and total bacteria showed a quadratic effect. In contrast, the counts of fungi and viruses showed a negative linear effect with an increase in the time of photohydroionisation. The enterobacteria showed a linear response plateau effect (LRP), with a minimum time point of 5.498 minutes at a minimum contamination of 0.666 CFU/g and a reduction of 82.27% of the pre-established inoculum. Total bacteria had an LRP effect with a minimum time point of 1.902 minutes at minimum contamination of 1.739 CFU/g and a reduction of 50.0% of the pre-established inoculum. An LRP effect was found for fungi, with a minimum time point of 7.931 minutes in minimum contamination of 3.380 CFU/g, and with a reduction of 11.0% of the pre-established inoculum. For viruses, there was an LRP effect with a minimum time point of 5.012 minutes in minimum contamination of 0.000 viral titre per 100 g of shavings, which was reduced by 100% of the pre-established inoculum.4. Photohydroionisation in the disinfection of new shavings used as poultry litter has partial potential as a microbiological control tool, as a complete reduction occurred only for the viruses, whereas for bacteria and fungi only partial reductions of these microorganisms were observed.

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility.

METHODS

We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates.

FINDINGS

From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6-0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56-0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38-0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02-1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant.

INTERPRETATION

The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant.

FUNDING

Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society.

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility.

METHODS

We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, R_t, for the two incidence estimates.

FINDINGS

From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6-0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56-0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38-0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the R_t of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02-1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, R_t fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant.

INTERPRETATION

The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant.

FUNDING

Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society.

X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions from two previously quiescent galaxies

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are very-high-amplitude bursts of X-ray radiation recurring every few hours and originating near the central supermassive black holes of galactic nuclei^1,2. It is currently unknown what triggers these events, how long they last and how they are connected to the physical properties of the inner accretion flows. Previously, only two such sources were known, found either serendipitously or in archival data^1,2, with emission lines in their optical spectra classifying their nuclei as hosting an actively accreting supermassive black hole^3,4. Here we report observations of QPEs in two further galaxies, obtained with a blind and systematic search of half of the X-ray sky. The optical spectra of these galaxies show no signature of black hole activity, indicating that a pre-existing accretion flow that is typical of active galactic nuclei is not required to trigger these events. Indeed, the periods, amplitudes and profiles of the QPEs reported here are inconsistent with current models that invoke radiation-pressure-driven instabilities in the accretion disk^5–9. Instead, QPEs might be driven by an orbiting compact object. Furthermore, their observed properties require the mass of the secondary object to be much smaller than that of the main body¹⁰, and future X-ray observations may constrain possible changes in their period owing to orbital evolution. This model could make QPEs a viable candidate for the electromagnetic counterparts of so-called extreme-mass-ratio inspirals^11–13, with considerable implications for multi-messenger astrophysics and cosmology^14,15.

X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions are detected from two previously inactive galaxies, with observations suggesting that the very-high-amplitude X-ray bursts may arise from an orbiting compact object.

Modest effects of dietary supplements during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from 445 850 users of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app

OBJECTIVES

Dietary supplements may ameliorate SARS-CoV-2 infection, although scientific evidence to support such a role is lacking. We investigated whether users of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app who regularly took dietary supplements were less likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DESIGN

App-based community survey.

SETTING

445 850 subscribers of an app that was launched to enable self-reported information related to SARS-CoV-2 infection for use in the general population in the UK (n=372 720), the USA (n=45 757) and Sweden (n=27 373).

MAIN EXPOSURE

Self-reported regular dietary supplement usage (constant use during previous 3 months) in the first waves of the pandemic up to 31 July 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by viral RNA reverse transcriptase PCR test or serology test before 31 July 2020.

RESULTS

In 372 720 UK participants (175 652 supplement users and 197 068 non-users), those taking probiotics, omega-3 fatty acids, multivitamins or vitamin D had a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by 14% (95% CI (8% to 19%)), 12% (95% CI (8% to 16%)), 13% (95% CI (10% to 16%)) and 9% (95% CI (6% to 12%)), respectively, after adjusting for potential confounders. No effect was observed for those taking vitamin C, zinc or garlic supplements. On stratification by sex, age and body mass index (BMI), the protective associations in individuals taking probiotics, omega-3 fatty acids, multivitamins and vitamin D were observed in females across all ages and BMI groups, but were not seen in men. The same overall pattern of association was observed in both the US and Swedish cohorts.

CONCLUSION

In women, we observed a modest but significant association between use of probiotics, omega-3 fatty acid, multivitamin or vitamin D supplements and lower risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. We found no clear benefits for men nor any effect of vitamin C, garlic or zinc. Randomised controlled trials are required to confirm these observational findings before any therapeutic recommendations can be made.

ETV6-NTRK3 translocation-associated low-grade mucinous bronchial adenocarcinoma: A novel bronchial salivary gland-type non-small cell lung cancer subtype

INTRODUCTION

NTRK fusion genes have been found in several solid tumors, among which NSCLC and sarcoma. Novel NTRK translocation-related tumors are still being discovered.

METHODS

We report a 49-year-old patient with a mass in the left lower lung lobe that was resected. This specimen was analyzed and sequenced using targeted DNA next generation sequencing (NGS) and anchored-multiplex-PCR (AMP) targeted RNA NGS.

RESULTS

On pathological evaluation, a peribronchial mucinous neoplasm with a unique morphology was found. RNA NGS analysis showed anETV6-NTRK3 translocation in a low-grade mucinous bronchial adenocarcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

This entity represents a novel subtype of non-small cell lung cancer, which we would like to term 'ETV6-NTRK3 translocation-associated low-grade mucinous bronchial adenocarcinoma'.

Postprandial glycaemic dips predict appetite and energy intake in healthy individuals

Understanding how to modulate appetite in humans is key to developing successful weight loss interventions. Here, we showed that postprandial glucose dips 2-3 h after a meal are a better predictor of postprandial self-reported hunger and subsequent energy intake than peak glucose at 0-2 h and glucose incremental area under the blood glucose curve at 0-2 h. We explore the links among postprandial glucose, appetite and subsequent energy intake in 1,070 participants from a UK exploratory and US validation cohort, who consumed 8,624 standardized meals followed by 71,715 ad libitum meals, using continuous glucose monitors to record postprandial glycaemia. For participants eating each of the standardized meals, the average postprandial glucose dip at 2-3 h relative to baseline level predicted an increase in hunger at 2-3 h (r = 0.16, P < 0.001), shorter time until next meal (r = -0.14, P < 0.001), greater energy intake at 3-4 h (r = 0.19, P < 0.001) and greater energy intake at 24 h (r = 0.27, P < 0.001). Results were directionally consistent in the US validation cohort. These data provide a quantitative assessment of the relevance of postprandial glycaemia in appetite and energy intake modulation.

Symptoms and syndromes associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity in pregnant women from two community cohorts

We tested whether pregnant and non-pregnant women differ in COVID-19 symptom profile and severity, and we extended previous investigations on hospitalized pregnant women to those who did not require hospitalization. Two female community-based cohorts (18-44 years) provided longitudinal (smartphone application, N = 1,170,315, n = 79 pregnant tested positive) and cross-sectional (web-based survey, N = 1,344,966, n = 134 pregnant tested positive) data, prospectively collected through self-participatory citizen surveillance in UK, Sweden and USA. Pregnant and non-pregnant were compared for frequencies of events, including SARS-CoV-2 testing, symptoms and hospitalization rates. Multivariable regression was used to investigate symptoms severity and comorbidity effects. Pregnant and non-pregnant women positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection were not different in syndromic severity, except for gastrointestinal symptoms. Pregnant were more likely to have received testing, despite reporting fewer symptoms. Pre-existing lung disease was most closely associated with syndromic severity in pregnant hospitalized. Heart and kidney diseases and diabetes increased risk. The most frequent symptoms among non-hospitalized women were anosmia [63% pregnant, 92% non-pregnant] and headache [72%, 62%]. Cardiopulmonary symptoms, including persistent cough [80%] and chest pain [73%], were more frequent among pregnant who were hospitalized. Consistent with observations in non-pregnant populations, lung disease and diabetes were associated with increased risk of more severe SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy.

144 Probable Delirium is A Presenting Symptom of COVID-19 in Frail, Older Adults: A Study of Hospitalised and Community-Based Cohorts

Introduction

COVID-19 exhibits a more severe disease course in older adults with frailty. Awareness of atypical presentations is critical to facilitate early disease identification. This study aimed to assess how frailty affects presenting symptoms of COVID-19 in older adults.

Methods

Observational study of two distinct cohorts: (i) Hospitalised patients aged 65 and over; unscheduled admission to a large London teaching hospital between March 1st, 2020-May 5th, 2020; COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR of nasopharyngeal swab (n = 322); (ii) Community-based adults aged 65 and over enrolled in the COVID Symptom Study mobile application between March 24th (application launch)-May 8th, 2020; self-report or report-by-proxy data; reported test-positive for COVID-19 (n = 535). Multivariable logistic regression analysis performed on age-matched samples of both cohorts to determine associations between frailty and symptoms of COVID-19 including delirium, fever and cough.

Results

Hospital cohort: there was a significantly higher prevalence of delirium amongst the frail sample, with no difference in fever or cough. Of those presenting with delirium, 10/53 (18.9%) presented with delirium as the only documented symptom. Community-based cohort: there was a significantly higher prevalence of probable delirium in the frail sample, and also of fatigue and shortness of breath. Of those reporting probable delirium, 28/84 (33%) did not report fever or cough.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates a higher prevalence of delirium as a presenting symptom of COVID-19 infection in older adults with frailty compared to their age-matched non-frail counterparts. Clinicians should suspect COVID-19 in frail older adults presenting with delirium. Early detection facilitates infection control measures to mitigate against catastrophic spread and preventable hospitalisations and deaths amongst this population. Our findings emphasise the need for systematic frailty assessment for all acutely ill older patients in both hospital and community settings, as well as systematic evaluation of any change in mental status.

Attributes and predictors of long COVID

Reports of long-lasting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms, the so-called 'long COVID', are rising but little is known about prevalence, risk factors or whether it is possible to predict a protracted course early in the disease. We analyzed data from 4,182 incident cases of COVID-19 in which individuals self-reported their symptoms prospectively in the COVID Symptom Study app¹. A total of 558 (13.3%) participants reported symptoms lasting ≥28 days, 189 (4.5%) for ≥8 weeks and 95 (2.3%) for ≥12 weeks. Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID (odds ratio = 3.53 (2.76-4.50)). A simple model to distinguish between short COVID and long COVID at 7 days (total sample size, n = 2,149) showed an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve of 76%, with replication in an independent sample of 2,472 individuals who were positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. This model could be used to identify individuals at risk of long COVID for trials of prevention or treatment and to plan education and rehabilitation services.

Bound on 3+1 Active-Sterile Neutrino Mixing from the First Four-Week Science Run of KATRIN

We report on the light sterile neutrino search from the first four-week science run of the KATRIN experiment in 2019. Beta-decay electrons from a high-purity gaseous molecular tritium source are analyzed by a high-resolution MAC-E filter down to 40 eV below the endpoint at 18.57 keV. We consider the framework with three active neutrinos and one sterile neutrino. The analysis is sensitive to the mass, m_{4}, of the fourth mass state for m_{4}^{2}≲1000  eV^{2} and to active-to-sterile neutrino mixing down to |U_{e4}|^{2}≳2×10^{-2}. No significant spectral distortion is observed and exclusion bounds on the sterile mass and mixing are reported. These new limits supersede the Mainz results for m_{4}^{2}≲1000  eV^{2} and improve the Troitsk bound for m_{4}^{2}<30  eV^{2}. The reactor and gallium anomalies are constrained for 100<Δm_{41}^{2}<1000  eV^{2}.

Diagnostic value of cutaneous manifestation of SARS-CoV-2 infection

Background

One of the challenging aspects of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is its diverse multisystemic disease presentation.

Objectives

To evaluate the diagnostic value of cutaneous manifestations of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection and investigate their duration and timing in relation to other COVID‐19 symptoms.

Methods

We used data from 336 847 UK users of the COVID Symptom Study app to assess the diagnostic value of body rash or an acral rash in SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, and data from an independent online survey of 11 544 respondents to investigate skin‐specific symptoms and collect their photographs.

Results

Using data from the app, we show significant association between skin rashes and a positive swab test result (odds ratio 1·67, 95% confidence interval 1·42–1·97). Strikingly, among the respondents of the independent online survey, we found that 17% of SARS‐CoV‐2‐positive cases reported skin rashes as the first presentation, and 21% as the only clinical sign of COVID‐19. Together with the British Association of Dermatologists, we have compiled a catalogue of images of the most common skin manifestations of COVID‐19 from 400 individuals (https://covidskinsigns.com), which we have made publicly available to assist clinicians in recognition of this early clinical feature of COVID‐19.

Conclusions

Skin rashes cluster with other COVID‐19 symptoms, are predictive of a positive swab test, and occur in a significant number of cases, either alone or before other classical symptoms. Recognizing rashes is important in identifying new and earlier cases of COVID‐19.

What is already known about this topic?

Several studies conducted in hospital settings reported that patients with COVID‐19 presented with unusual skin rashes, including urticarial rashes, vesicular lesions and, less frequently, chilblains in fingers or toes.

What does this study add?

We confirmed, in a community‐based setting that also includes milder forms of the disease, that the presence of a skin rash is predictive of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection.

We provide a website with photos of skin manifestations to help healthcare professionals in diagnosing COVID‐19.

Skin rashes should be taken into account to provide a quick COVID‐19 diagnosis to curb the spread of the disease.

Linked Comment: Naldi. Br J Dermatol 2021; 184:793–794.

Symptom clusters in COVID-19: A potential clinical prediction tool from the COVID Symptom Study app

As no one symptom can predict disease severity or the need for dedicated medical support in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we asked whether documenting symptom time series over the first few days informs outcome. Unsupervised time series clustering over symptom presentation was performed on data collected from a training dataset of completed cases enlisted early from the COVID Symptom Study Smartphone application, yielding six distinct symptom presentations. Clustering was validated on an independent replication dataset between 1 and 28 May 2020. Using the first 5 days of symptom logging, the ROC-AUC (receiver operating characteristic - area under the curve) of need for respiratory support was 78.8%, substantially outperforming personal characteristics alone (ROC-AUC 69.5%). Such an approach could be used to monitor at-risk patients and predict medical resource requirements days before they are required.

Racial and ethnic differences in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake

BACKGROUND

Racial and ethnic minorities have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. In the initial phase of population-based vaccination in the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (U.K.), vaccine hesitancy and limited access may result in disparities in uptake.

METHODS

We performed a cohort study among U.S. and U.K. participants in the smartphone-based COVID Symptom Study (March 24, 2020-February 16, 2021). We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (unsure/not willing) and receipt.

RESULTS

In the U.S. ( n =87,388), compared to White non-Hispanic participants, the multivariable ORs of vaccine hesitancy were 3.15 (95% CI: 2.86 to 3.47) for Black participants, 1.42 (1.28 to 1.58) for Hispanic participants, 1.34 (1.18 to 1.52) for Asian participants, and 2.02 (1.70 to 2.39) for participants reporting more than one race/other. In the U.K. ( n =1,254,294), racial and ethnic minorities had similarly elevated hesitancy: compared to White participants, their corresponding ORs were 2.84 (95% CI: 2.69 to 2.99) for Black participants, 1.66 (1.57 to 1.76) for South Asian participants, 1.84 (1.70 to 1.98) for Middle East/East Asian participants, and 1.48 (1.39 to 1.57) for participants reporting more than one race/other. Among U.S. participants, the OR of vaccine receipt was 0.71 (0.64 to 0.79) for Black participants, a disparity that persisted among individuals who specifically endorsed a willingness to obtain a vaccine. In contrast, disparities in uptake were not observed in the U.K.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was greater among racial and ethnic minorities, and Black participants living in the U.S. were less likely to receive a vaccine than White participants. Lower uptake among Black participants in the U.S. during the initial vaccine rollout is attributable to both hesitancy and disparities in access.

Optimal symptom combinations to aid COVID-19 case identification: Analysis from a community-based, prospective, observational cohort

Objectives

Diagnostic work-up following any COVID-19 associated symptom will lead to extensive testing, potentially overwhelming laboratory capacity whilst primarily yielding negative results. We aimed to identify optimal symptom combinations to capture most cases using fewer tests with implications for COVID-19 vaccine developers across different resource settings and public health.

Methods

UK and US users of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app who reported new-onset symptoms and an RT-PCR test within seven days of symptom onset were included. Sensitivity, specificity, and number of RT-PCR tests needed to identify one case (test per case [TPC]) were calculated for different symptom combinations. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm was applied to generate combinations with optimal trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity.

Findings

UK and US cohorts included 122,305 (1,202 positives) and 3,162 (79 positive) individuals. Within three days of symptom onset, the COVID-19 specific symptom combination (cough, dyspnoea, fever, anosmia/ageusia) identified 69% of cases requiring 47 TPC. The combination with highest sensitivity (fatigue, anosmia/ageusia, cough, diarrhoea, headache, sore throat) identified 96% cases requiring 96 TPC.

Interpretation

We confirmed the significance of COVID-19 specific symptoms for triggering RT-PCR and identified additional symptom combinations with optimal trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity that maximize case capture given different resource settings.

Optimal symptom combinations to aid COVID-19 case identification: analysis from a community-based, prospective, observational cohort

OBJECTIVES

Diagnostic work-up following any COVID-19 associated symptom will lead to extensive testing, potentially overwhelming laboratory capacity whilst primarily yielding negative results. We aimed to identify optimal symptom combinations to capture most cases using fewer tests with implications for COVID-19 vaccine developers across different resource settings and public health.

METHODS

UK and US users of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app who reported new-onset symptoms and an RT-PCR test within seven days of symptom onset were included. Sensitivity, specificity, and number of RT-PCR tests needed to identify one case (test per case [TPC]) were calculated for different symptom combinations. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm was applied to generate combinations with optimal trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity.

FINDINGS

UK and US cohorts included 122,305 (1,202 positives) and 3,162 (79 positive) individuals. Within three days of symptom onset, the COVID-19 specific symptom combination (cough, dyspnoea, fever, anosmia/ageusia) identified 69% of cases requiring 47 TPC. The combination with highest sensitivity (fatigue, anosmia/ageusia, cough, diarrhoea, headache, sore throat) identified 96% cases requiring 96 TPC.

INTERPRETATION

We confirmed the significance of COVID-19 specific symptoms for triggering RT-PCR and identified additional symptom combinations with optimal trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity that maximize case capture given different resource settings.

Second-line nivolumab in relapsed small-cell lung cancer: CheckMate 331☆

BACKGROUND

Patients with relapsed small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) have few treatment options and dismal survival. Phase I/II data show activity of nivolumab in previously treated SCLC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

CheckMate 331 is a randomized, open-label, phase III trial of nivolumab versus standard chemotherapy in relapsed SCLC. Patients with relapse after first-line, platinum-based chemotherapy were randomized 1 : 1 to nivolumab 240 mg every 2 weeks or chemotherapy (topotecan or amrubicin) until progression or unacceptable toxicity. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Overall, 284 patients were randomized to nivolumab and 285 to chemotherapy. Minimum follow-up was 15.8 months. No significant improvement in OS was seen with nivolumab versus chemotherapy [median OS, 7.5 versus 8.4 months; hazard ratio (HR), 0.86; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.72-1.04; P = 0.11]. A survival benefit with nivolumab was suggested in patients with baseline lactate dehydrogenase ≤ upper limit of normal and in those without baseline liver metastases. OS (nivolumab versus chemotherapy) was similar in patients with programmed death-ligand 1 combined positive score ≥1% versus <1%. Median progression-free survival was 1.4 versus 3.8 months (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.18-1.69). Objective response rate was 13.7% versus 16.5% (odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.50-1.27); median duration of response was 8.3 versus 4.5 months. Rates of grade 3 or 4 treatment-related adverse events were 13.8% versus 73.2%.

CONCLUSION

Nivolumab did not improve survival versus chemotherapy in relapsed SCLC. No new safety signals were seen. In exploratory analyses, select baseline characteristics were associated with improved OS for nivolumab.

Probable delirium is a presenting symptom of COVID-19 in frail, older adults: a cohort study of 322 hospitalised and 535 community-based older adults

BACKGROUND

Frailty, increased vulnerability to physiological stressors, is associated with adverse outcomes. COVID-19 exhibits a more severe disease course in older, comorbid adults. Awareness of atypical presentations is critical to facilitate early identification.

OBJECTIVE

To assess how frailty affects presenting COVID-19 symptoms in older adults.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study of hospitalised older patients and self-report data for community-based older adults.

SETTING

Admissions to St Thomas' Hospital, London with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Community-based data for older adults using the COVID Symptom Study mobile application.

SUBJECTS

Hospital cohort: patients aged 65 and over (n = 322); unscheduled hospital admission between 1 March 2020 and 5 May 2020; COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR of nasopharyngeal swab. Community-based cohort: participants aged 65 and over enrolled in the COVID Symptom Study (n = 535); reported test-positive for COVID-19 from 24 March (application launch) to 8 May 2020.

METHODS

Multivariable logistic regression analysis performed on age-matched samples from hospital and community-based cohorts to ascertain association of frailty with symptoms of confirmed COVID-19.

RESULTS

Hospital cohort: significantly higher prevalence of probable delirium in the frail sample, with no difference in fever or cough. Community-based cohort: significantly higher prevalence of possible delirium in frailer, older adults and fatigue and shortness of breath.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study demonstrating higher prevalence of probable delirium as a COVID-19 symptom in older adults with frailty compared to other older adults. This emphasises need for systematic frailty assessment and screening for delirium in acutely ill older patients in hospital and community settings. Clinicians should suspect COVID-19 in frail adults with delirium.