Development and validation of risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of common cancers in men and women: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To derive and validate a set of clinical risk prediction algorithm to estimate the 10-year risk of 11 common cancers.

DESIGN

Prospective open cohort study using routinely collected data from 753 QResearch general practices in England. We used 565 practices to develop the scores and 188 for validation.

SUBJECTS

4.96 million patients aged 25-84 years in the derivation cohort; 1.64 million in the validation cohort. Patients were free of the relevant cancer at baseline.

METHODS

Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive 10-year risk algorithms. Risk factors considered included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, smoking, alcohol, previous cancer diagnoses, family history of cancer, relevant comorbidities and medication. Measures of calibration and discrimination in the validation cohort.

OUTCOMES

Incident cases of blood, breast, bowel, gastro-oesophageal, lung, oral, ovarian, pancreas, prostate, renal tract and uterine cancers. Cancers were recorded on any one of four linked data sources (general practitioner (GP), mortality, hospital or cancer records).

RESULTS

We identified 228,241 incident cases during follow-up of the 11 types of cancer. Of these 25,444 were blood; 41,315 breast; 32,626 bowel, 12,808 gastro-oesophageal; 32,187 lung; 4811 oral; 6635 ovarian; 7119 pancreatic; 35,256 prostate; 23,091 renal tract; 6949 uterine cancers. The lung cancer algorithm had the best performance with an R(2) of 64.2%; D statistic of 2.74; receiver operating characteristic curve statistic of 0.91 in women. The sensitivity for the top 10% of women at highest risk of lung cancer was 67%. Performance of the algorithms in men was very similar to that for women.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated a prediction models to quantify absolute risk of 11 common cancers. They can be used to identify patients at high risk of cancers for prevention or further assessment. The algorithms could be integrated into clinical computer systems and used to identify high-risk patients.

WEB CALCULATOR

There is a simple web calculator to implement the Qcancer 10 year risk algorithm together with the open source software for download (available at http://qcancer.org/10yr/).

Risk factors for endometrial cancer in black and white women: a pooled analysis from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

PURPOSE

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the most common gynecologic cancer in the USA. Over the last decade, the incidence rate has been increasing, with a larger increase among blacks. The aim of this study was to compare risk factors for EC in black and white women.

METHODS

Data from seven cohort and four case-control studies were pooled. Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals for each risk factor in blacks and whites separately.

RESULTS

Data were pooled for 2,011 black women (516 cases and 1,495 controls) and 19,297 white women (5,693 cases and 13,604 controls). BMI ≥ 30 was associated with an approximate threefold increase in risk of EC in both black and white women (ORblack 2.93, 95 % CI 2.11, 4.07 and ORwhite 2.99, 95 % CI 2.74, 3.26). Diabetes was associated with a 30-40 % increase in risk among both groups. Increasing parity was associated with decreasing risk of EC in blacks and whites (p value = 0.02 and <0.001, respectively). Current and former smoking was associated with decreased risk of EC among all women. Both black and white women who used oral contraceptives for 10 +years were also at reduced risk of EC (OR 0.49, 95 % CI 0.27, 0.88 and OR 0.69, 95 % CI 0.58, 0.83, respectively). Previous history of hypertension was not associated with EC risk in either group.

CONCLUSIONS

The major known risk factors for EC exert similar effects on black and white women. Differences in the incidence rates between the two populations may be due to differences in the prevalence of risk factors.

[Dutch College of General Practitioners' practice guideline on 'Vaginal bleeding']

The revised Dutch College of General Practitioners' practice guideline on 'Vaginal bleeding' provides recommendations for abnormal bleeding in women in the reproduction phase of life and for post-menopausal bleeding. This guideline is closely attuned to the guideline on 'Heavy menstrual bleeding' of the Dutch Society of Obstetrics and Gynaecology. Transvaginal sonography is not reliable for excluding endometrial carcinoma in women with abnormal vaginal bleeding treated with tamoxifen. The choice of medical treatment is determined in consultation with the patient. The following factors are assessed: severity and bother, long-term need for contraception, preference for cycle control, desire to have a child, pain during menstruation, comorbidity and use of medication. Treatment options are nonhormonal (NSAIDs, or tranexamic acid) or hormonal (a levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system, or combined oral contraceptive). In women of reproductive age, referral is indicated if medical treatment is not effective. Other indications are intracavitary abnormalities diagnosed by transvaginal sonography, tamoxifen use, persistent contact bleeding, and suspicion of coagulation disorders. Indications for referral for post-menopausal bleeding include: sonographic endometrial thickness > 4 mm, abnormal cervical cytology, tamoxifen use, irregular bleeding during use of hormone therapy for vasomotor symptoms and persistent or recurrent bleeding, regardless of endometrial thickness.

The benefit-to-risk ratio of common treatments in PCOS: effect of oral contraceptives versus metformin on atherogenic markers

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effects of oral contraceptives (OCPs) and metformin on atherogenic markers, including serum levels of advanced glycated end products (AGEs) and C-reactive protein (CRP), in lean women (Body Mass Index below 25 kg/m(2)) with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), defined by NIH criteria.

DESIGN

Prospective open-label study.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty women with PCOS were treated for 6 months with one of the following treatments: ethinylestradiol plus cyproterone acetate (OCP 1, n=40) or ethinylestradiol plus drospirenone (OCP2, n=40) or metformin (MET, n=40). The three groups were age and BMI-matched (mean age: 22 ± 0.56 yrs in group OCP1; 23.24 ± 0.64 yrs in group OCP2; 21.50 ± 0.53 yrs in group MET; mean BMI 21.80 ± 0.35 kg/m(2) in group OCP1; 22.37 ± 0.48 kg/m(2) in group OCP2; 23.03 ± 0.67 kg/m(2) in group MET). At 6 months serum AGEs were decreased in group OCP1 (P=0.005) and group MET (P=0.001), whereas these were marginally decreased in group OCP2 (P=0.069). Treatment with metformin was associated with a greater percent decrease of AGEs. CRP was decreased with metformin (P<0.001), but was increased with OCPs (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study evaluates common therapeutic options in women with PCOS by reconsidering and prioritizing the goals of treatment. OCPs and metformin appear to have differential effects on atherogenic molecules in lean PCOS patients, but metformin was superior in reducing serum AGEs and CRP. Clinicians should individualize the benefit-to-risk ratio of pharmaceutical intervention in women with PCOS in order to choose the formulation with the greatest overall efficacy as well as safety in terms of cardiovascular risk.

A comparative analysis of fertility differentials in Ghana and Nigeria

Nigeria and Ghana are the most densely populated countries in the West African sub-region with fertility levels above world average. Our study compared the two countries' fertility levels and their determinants as well as the differentials in the effect of these factors across the two countries. We carried out a retrospective analysis of data from the Nigeria and Ghana Demographic Health Surveys, 2008. The sample of 33,385 and 4,916 women aged 15-49 years obtained in Nigeria and Ghana respectively was stratified into low, medium and high fertility using reported children ever born. Data was summarized using appropriate descriptive statistics. Factors influencing fertility were identified using ordinal logistic regression at 5% significance level. While unemployment significantly lowers fertility in Nigeria, it wasn't significant in Ghana. In both countries, education, age at first marriage, marital status, urban-rural residence, wealth index and use of oral contraception were the main factors influencing high fertility levels.

Resting state alpha frequency is associated with menstrual cycle phase, estradiol and use of oral contraceptives

Ongoing intrinsic brain activity in resting, but awake humans is dominated by alpha oscillations. In human, individual alpha frequency (IAF) is associated with cognitive performance. Noticeable, performance in cognitive and emotional tasks in women is associated with menstrual cycle phase and sex hormone levels, respectively. In the present study, we correlated frequency of alpha oscillation in resting women with menstrual cycle phase, sex hormone level, or use of oral contraceptives. Electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded from 57 women (aged 24.07 ± 3.67 years) having a natural menstrual cycle as well as from 57 women (aged 22.37 ± 2.20 years) using oral contraceptives while they sat in an armchair with eyes closed. Alpha frequency was related to the menstrual cycle phase. Luteal women showed highest and late follicular women showed lowest IAF or center frequency. Furthermore, IAF as well as center frequency correlated negatively with endogenous estradiol level, but did not reveal an association with endogenous progesterone. Women using oral contraceptives showed an alpha frequency similar to women in the early follicular phase. We suggest that endogenous estradiol modulate resting alpha frequency.

Metformin, oral contraceptives or both to manage oligo-amenorrhea in adolescents with polycystic ovary syndrome? A clinical review

The management of oligo-amenorrhea in adolescent patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) represents an important and difficult challenge. Metformin and/or oral contraceptives (OCs) are different strategies widely proposed in these patients. The objective of the current review was to provide an overview on the use of metformin and/or OCs for the management of oligo-amenorrhea in adolescents with PCOS underlining their potential risks and benefits in order to help the clinician to choose the best patients' tailored treatment.

Endogenous sex hormones and risk of venous thromboembolism in women and men

BACKGROUND

Use of oral contraceptives with estrogen and hormone replacement therapy with estrogen or testosterone are associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, whether endogenous estradiol and testosterone concentrations are also associated with risk of VTE is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We tested the hypothesis that elevated endogenous total estradiol and total testosterone concentrations are associated with increased risk of VTE in the general population.

METHODS

We studied 4658 women, not receiving exogenous estrogen, and 4673 men from the 1981-1983 Copenhagen City Heart Study, who had estradiol and testosterone concentrations measured. Of these, 636 developed VTE (deep venous thrombosis [DVT] and/or pulmonary embolism [PE]) during a follow-up of 21 years (range, 0.02-32 years). Associations between endogenous estradiol and testosterone concentrations and risk of VTE were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression with time-dependent covariates and corrected for regression dilution bias.

RESULTS

Multifactorially adjusted hazard ratios of VTE for individuals with estradiol levels >75th vs. ≤25th percentile were 0.84 (95%CI, 0.25-2.85), 1.05 (0.53-2.08) and 1.05 (0.03-35.13) for pre- and post-menopausal women and men, respectively. For testosterone, corresponding risk estimates were 0.64 (0.03-12.32), 1.11 (0.66-1.86) and 1.30 (0.62-2.73). In addition, no associations were observed between extreme hormone percentiles (>95th vs. ≤75th) and risk of DVT, PE or recurrent VTE.

CONCLUSION

This prospective study suggests that high endogenous concentrations of estradiol and testosterone in women and men in the general population are not associated with increased risk of VTE, DVT or PE.

Oral contraceptives and the periodontium

Oral contraceptives are a safe and effective means of contraception for millions of women worldwide. The first formulations of these drugs contained much higher doses of estrogens and progestins than those available today, and these were associated with an unacceptably high rate of unwanted effects including serious cardiovascular events. In addition, a number of case reports and clinical studies suggested that use of the first generation oral contraceptives was also associated with an increased risk for gingival and/or periodontal disease. Unfortunately, many of these early studies suffered from significant methodological flaws which throw their findings into question. Nonetheless, these studies provided the basis for a perception among the dental profession that oral contraceptives increase the risk for gingivitis and/or periodontitis. Realisation that the adverse events profile of oral contraceptives was dose dependant led to the development of the modern low dose formulations that are in use today. There have been far fewer studies to investigate whether modern oral contraceptives have any impact on the periodontium compared to studies of the early contraceptive formulations, but the quality of the more recent research is undoubtedly better. Following extensive review of the relevant literature and consideration of the historical perspective, the best available evidence strongly supports that oral contraceptives no longer place users at any increased risk for gingivitis or periodontitis. Oral contraceptives should not be viewed as a risk factor for gingival or periodontal disease.

[Contemporary pharmacological methods of treating hirsutism]

Hirsutism is a symptom of excessive androgen secretion in women, which in recent years is becoming more common. It is a problem of physical, mental and social background and patients always require application of an appropriate therapy Today's medicine offers a wide variety of treatments for the disease, each of which has a different efficiency. This article describes the pharmacological treatment of hirsutism using, among others: antiandrogenic drugs, corticosteroids and oral contraceptives. We performed an extensive literature looking for articles dealing with various forms of hirsutism treatment, most important items were selected and compiled in this work. Modem medicine distinguishes many forms of hirsutism treatment. A very important form of treatment for this condition is the use of pharmacological agents. Their diversity allows optimal adjustment of therapy to the requirements and needs of the patient. Drug therapy is effective, however, in most cases also requires a dermatological treatment.

Adverse effects of the common treatments for polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is common among women of childbearing age and the available pharmacological therapies have different side-effect profiles.

OBJECTIVE

We summarized the evidence about the side effects of oral contraceptive pills, metformin, and anti-androgens in women with PCOS.

DATA SOURCE

Sources included Ovid Medline, OVID EMBASE, OVID Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, PsycInfo, and CINAHL from inception through April 2011.

STUDY SELECTION

We included comparative observational studies enrolling women with PCOS who received the agents of choice for at least 6 months and reported adverse effects.

DATA EXTRACTION

Using a standardized, piloted, and Web-based data extraction form and working in duplicate, we abstracted data from each study and performed meta-analysis when possible.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We found 22 eligible studies of which 20 were randomized. No study reported severe side effects (eg, lactic acidosis, thromboembolic episodes, liver toxicity, cancer incidence, or pregnancy loss). Meta-analysis demonstrated no significant change in weight in oral contraceptive pills or flutamide users. Indirect evidence from populations without PCOS demonstrated no increased risk of lactic acidosis with metformin, only case reports of liver toxicity with flutamide (no comparative evidence), and increased relative risk difference of venous thromboembolism with oral contraceptive pills but very low absolute risk. Evidence on mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and cancer was inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

Drugs commonly used to treat PCOS appear to be associated with very low risk of severe adverse effects although data are extrapolated from other populations.

Associations between oral contraceptive use and risks of hypertension and prehypertension in a cross-sectional study of Korean women

BACKGROUND

The effect of commonly used oral contraceptives (OCs) on blood pressure is still unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between OCs use and blood pressure and the prevalence of hypertension in a population-based sample of Korean women.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from 3356 participants aged 35-55 years collected in the 2007-2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. OC use and demographic characteristics were obtained from participants using a questionnaire, and blood pressure was measured with a mercury sphygmomanometer.

RESULTS

Longer duration of OC use was positively associated with increasing levels of systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure (p for trend <0.001). After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratio (OR) of hypertension was significantly increased in longer-term (>24 months) OC users (OR 1.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-3.73) compared with those who had never used OCs. Additionally, use of OCs >24 months was associated with increased odds of prehypertension (adjusted OR 2.23; 95% CI 1.28-3.90) and hypertension or prehypertension (adjusted OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.37-3.32).

CONCLUSION

This study found a statistically significant association between OC use and blood pressure or hypertension among Korean women.

Diagnosis of adolescent polycystic ovary syndrome

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrinopathy affecting women of reproductive age and is increasingly recognized as a disorder manifesting in the peripubertal and adolescent period. Diagnosis in the adolescent is difficult due to the high background rate of menstrual irregularity, the high prevalence of polycystic ovarian morphology and hyperandrogenic features in this population. Recent guidelines suggest that menstrual irregularity for over two years, reduced reliance on ultrasound diagnosis of polycystic ovarian morphology, and accurate assessment of hyperandrogenic and metabolic features are suitable strategies for the diagnosis of PCOS in the adolescent. Accurate diagnosis is important given the long-term implications of the disorder, with increasing emphasis on metabolic sequelae.

Cancer risk and PCOS

Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have a 2.7-fold increased risk for developing endometrial cancer. A major factor for this increased malignancy risk is prolonged exposure of the endometrium to unopposed estrogen that results from anovulation. Additionally, secretory endometrium of some women with PCOS undergoing ovulation induction or receiving exogenous progestin exhibits progesterone resistance accompanied by dysregulation of gene expression controlling steroid action and cell proliferation. Endometrial surveillance includes transvaginal ultrasound and/or endometrial biopsy to assess thickened endometrium, prolonged amenorrhea, unopposed estrogen exposure or abnormal vaginal bleeding. Medical management for abnormal vaginal bleeding or endometrial hyperplasia consists of estrogen-progestin oral contraceptives, cyclic or continuous progestins or a levonorgestrel-releasing (Mirena) intrauterine device. Lifestyle modification with caloric restriction and exercise is appropriate to treat obesity as a concomitant risk factor for developing endometrial disease. An increased risk of ovarian cancer may also exist in some women with PCOS. There are strong data to suggest that oral contraceptive use is protective against ovarian cancer and increases with the duration of therapy. The mechanism of this protection may be through suppression of gonadotropin secretion rather than the prevention of "incessant ovulation". There is no apparent association of PCOS with breast cancer, although the high prevalence of metabolic dysfunction from obesity is a common denominator for both conditions. Recent data suggest that the use of metformin may be protective for both endometrial and breast cancer. There are insufficient data to evaluate any association between PCOS and vaginal, vulvar and cervical cancer or uterine leiomyosarcoma.

First intention IVF protocol for polycystic ovaries: does oral contraceptive pill pretreatment influence COH outcome?

BACKGROUND

Morphological aspect of polycystic ovaries (PCO) is a very common finding in an IVF center population: this includes PCOS patients identified in 18-25% of the couples presenting with infertility and so called "sonographic PCO only" the prevalence of which has been estimated as high as 33% in asymptomatic patients. Finding the optimal first intention IVF protocol for polycystic ovaries patients is still challenging in order to improve the controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) outcome while avoiding ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). It has been suggested that women with PCO would benefit from a longer period of pituitary down-regulation. The purpose of this study was to compare an extended duration of OCP pretreatment with a classic GnRH agonist protocol.

METHODS

A single center prospective non-randomized study was performed from January 2009 to December 2010 in the Lille University Hospital including 113 women diagnosed with PCO(S) according to the Rotterdam ultrasonographic criteria and undergoing their first IVF attempt. Comprehensive hormonal and ultra-sonographic assessments were collected during COH in these patients. LH and androgen suppression and dynamics of follicular growth were compared between the two protocols as well as the COH outcome in terms of oocyte/embryo number and quality, implantation and pregnancy rates.

RESULTS

No significant difference was observed between the two groups concerning dynamics of follicular growth and hormonal values. Clinical and ongoing pregnancy rates were significantly lower in the OCP group despite same oocyte and embryo quality. Nevertheless, the cumulative pregnancy rate did not differ between the two groups. The incidence of OHSS was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Extended duration of OCP pretreatment, as a first intention IVF protocol for PCO patients, does not improve the pattern of follicular growth nor the oocyte and embryo quality.

Prevalence of and characteristics associated with use of withdrawal among women in Victoria, Australia

CONTEXT

Popularly regarded as "ineffective," withdrawal is a form of contraception largely ignored by health -professionals. Thus, little is known of the prevalence and correlates of its use.

METHODS

A survey of 1,006 sexually active women aged 16-50 and not intending to conceive was conducted in three Family Planning Victoria clinics in 2011. The questionnaire asked about contraceptive behavior and characteristics associated with contraceptive use. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess prevalence of withdrawal use and characteristics associated with reliance solely on this method.

RESULTS

Ninety-six percent of women reported having used some form of contraception in the last three months, most commonly male condoms (67%), the pill (49%) and withdrawal (32%); use of withdrawal was especially common among the youngest women. Of women reporting withdrawal use, 40% relied solely on this method. Eighty percent of sole users of withdrawal were also inconsistent users. Women who used only withdrawal had elevated odds of saying that they were dissatisfied with their current method (odds ratio, 1.6), had had more than one partner in the last three months (1.7), had no access to contraceptives when needed (2.4) and found it too inconvenient to use contraceptives (2.1).

CONCLUSION

Withdrawal use is common, but there is a need for better education on proper use. Health professionals should discuss the risks and benefits of withdrawal, along with those of other methods, when discussing con-traception with their patients. Further research is needed into why women choose withdrawal.

Prevalence of and characteristics associated with use of withdrawal among women in Victoria, Australia

CONTEXT

Popularly regarded as "ineffective," withdrawal is a form of contraception largely ignored by health -professionals. Thus, little is known of the prevalence and correlates of its use.

METHODS

A survey of 1,006 sexually active women aged 16-50 and not intending to conceive was conducted in three Family Planning Victoria clinics in 2011. The questionnaire asked about contraceptive behavior and characteristics associated with contraceptive use. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess prevalence of withdrawal use and characteristics associated with reliance solely on this method.

RESULTS

Ninety-six percent of women reported having used some form of contraception in the last three months, most commonly male condoms (67%), the pill (49%) and withdrawal (32%); use of withdrawal was especially common among the youngest women. Of women reporting withdrawal use, 40% relied solely on this method. Eighty percent of sole users of withdrawal were also inconsistent users. Women who used only withdrawal had elevated odds of saying that they were dissatisfied with their current method (odds ratio, 1.6), had had more than one partner in the last three months (1.7), had no access to contraceptives when needed (2.4) and found it too inconvenient to use contraceptives (2.1).

CONCLUSION

Withdrawal use is common, but there is a need for better education on proper use. Health professionals should discuss the risks and benefits of withdrawal, along with those of other methods, when discussing con-traception with their patients. Further research is needed into why women choose withdrawal.

Pharmacology update in adolescents: contraception and human papillomavirus vaccination

The ideal contraceptive agent remains elusive for the adolescent population. Contraceptive failure is often caused by inappropriate or inconsistent use, and discontinuation within the first year is not uncommon. Various methods have been explored within the adolescent population to increase efficacy rates, minimize side effects, and prevent unwanted pregnancies. The use of intrauterine devices and continuous use of combined oral contraceptives may lead to greater efficacy because of the ease of use and reduction in menstrual symptoms. Recent literature supports the continued use of medroxyprogesterone for adolescents without time limits, and advances in emergency contraception have increased access and use, but have not affected pregnancy rates. Human papillomavirus infection is the most common sexually transmitted infection and is associated with genital warts and the risk for cervical, penile, anal, and vulvovaginal cancer caused by persistent infection. A quadrivalent vaccine is indicated for both males and females to prevent genital warts and cancer, whereas the bivalent vaccine is indicated only for females and cancer prevention. Vaccination rates remain low among adolescents, and except in Virginia and the District of Columbia, vaccination is not a requirement for school entry. Research is ongoing for a 2-dose vaccine to improve vaccination rates while maintaining efficacy. Education is critical to prevent future infections and enhance vaccination rates.

Should we do more to improve oral contraceptive continuation?

Oral contraceptives are commonly chosen methods whose contraceptive effectiveness is very user-dependent. Approaches to significantly improving oral contraceptive continuation have been largely unsuccessful. Long-acting reversible methods are the most highly effective reversible contraceptives, with the highest continuation rates, and should be the first-line methods offered to reproductive-aged women.