Application of the Mayo primary biliary cirrhosis survival model to Mayo liver transplant patients

Liver transplantation is considered lifesaving for selected patients with end-stage primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). A mathematical model to predict survival in the patient with PBC who has not undergone transplantation would be valuable for improving selection of patients for and timing of transplantation and for providing control information for assessment of the efficacy of transplantation. The Cox regression method and data from 312 Mayo Clinic patients with PBC were used to develop a model based on age, total serum bilirubin, serum albumin, prothrombin time, and severity of edema. When cross-validated on an independent set of 106 Mayo patients, the model accurately predicted their survival. It was similar to two other published survival models in terms of risk measurement but had the advantage of not necessitating liver biopsy. The model was used to assess the efficacy of liver transplantation by comparing the Kaplan-Meier survival of 32 Mayo patients after transplantation with the average model prediction of survival without transplantation. Beyond 3 months after transplantation, Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities were significantly greater than control survival predicted by the model (P less than 0.001). Examples of using the model for aiding in selection of patients for and timing of transplantation are provided.

Prospective evaluation of esophageal varices in primary biliary cirrhosis: development, natural history, and influence on survival

The aims of our prospective study were to determine the development and natural history of esophageal varices and variceal bleeding in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. As part of a controlled clinical study, 265 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis who did not have esophageal varices at entry were followed for a median of 5.6 yr. The mean age was 49 yr (range 26-75 yr), 89% were women, and 69% had advanced histologic stage disease (stage 3-4) on liver biopsy at study entry. All patients were screened annually for esophageal varices by barium esophogram or endoscopy, or both; endoscopy was used to diagnose all episodes of esophageal variceal bleeding. Esophageal varices developed in 83 (31%) patients, and 40 (48%) of those with esophageal varices experienced one or more episodes of esophageal variceal bleeding. Cox regression analysis indicated that only serum bilirubin and histologic stage were associated independently with time to development of esophageal varices. In patients who developed esophageal varices, 33% and 41% developed esophageal variceal bleeding at 1 and 3 yr, respectively. After development of esophageal varices, 1- and 3-yr survival estimates were 83% and 59%, respectively. After the initial variceal bleeding episode, survival estimates were 65% and 46% at 1 and 3 yr and were dependent on Child's classification. These findings are important in considering indications for prophylactic therapy for esophageal varices in primary biliary cirrhosis and may influence timing of liver transplantation.

Variceal bleeding is associated with reduced risk of severe cholestasis in primary biliary cirrhosis

To test the hypothesis that, in primary biliary cirrhosis, bleeding from oesophageal varices implies a reduced risk that a patient will subsequently develop severe cholestasis, the case records of 76 patients with this condition who had died were examined. Fifty-nine patients (78 per cent) had died solely or largely as a consequence of liver disease. Their median survival from the onset of symptoms was 72 months. Most died from either hepatic failure with marked jaundice, infected ascites or variceal bleeding. Fifteen patients had a plasma bilirubin less than 100 mumol/l at the time of death. Twenty-eight patients had had variceal bleeding. Compared with the remaining 31 who had also died from cirrhosis, the patients who had bled from varices survived longer, were much less likely to die of hepatic failure and to become severely jaundiced but were more likely to develop fatal infected ascites.

[Clinical course and prognosis of primary biliary cirrhosis--multivariant analysis on cases of national survey]

In order to predict prognosis and clinical course of BPC, theory quantification was applied and the discriminated rate was calculated concerning the cases of PBC national survey in Japan. We examined the prediction of three and five year's survival about all cases, the prediction of appearance of symptoms about asymptomatic PBC and that of jaundice about asymptomatic PBC and symptomatic PBC alone with pruritus. The useful items for the prediction of prognosis were serum bilirubin, albumin and the presence of esophageal varices at first medical examination. Fairly good discriminated rate was obtained on the prediction of three and five year's survival. However poor results were obtained concerning the prediction of appearance of symptoms. In conclusion we can predict the prognosis of PBC based on clinical features.

Type III procollagen peptide: a marker of disease activity and prognosis in primary biliary cirrhosis

The prognostic value of the aminoterminal propeptide of type III procollagen (P3NP) was investigated in 63 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) followed for up to 87 months. No patient with an initially normal serum P3NP level died during the study; survival was significantly worse with increasing serum P3NP levels. Cox multivariate analysis confirmed that serum P3NP was an independent prognostic variable. Positive correlations were found between serum P3NP and histological stage, pericellular fibrosis, piecemeal necrosis, and serum concentrations of alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase. Raised P3NP levels also correlated with the degree of cholestasis as evaluated by serum bilirubin, serum alkaline phosphatase, and copper binding protein deposition in the liver. Serum P3NP is of prognostic value because it reflects the major pathophysiological features of PBC.

Clinical and statistical analyses of new and evolving therapies for primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis is a chronic, progressive, cholestatic liver disease thought to be related to abnormalities in immune regulation. The disease is associated with granulomatous bile duct destruction, cholestasis, hepatic copper overloading and the development of hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis or both. There have been numerous therapeutic trials evaluating immunosuppressive, antifibrotic and cupruretic agents. Prednisolone, D-penicillamine, azathioprine, colchicine and chlorambucil have been evaluated in controlled clinical trials, and biochemical improvement of liver function has been noted with all of the agents, except D-penicillamine. Improved survival has also been reported in patients treated long-term with azathioprine and colchicine. However, none of the therapeutic agents has been demonstrated to halt histologic progression of the disease or to induce a complete clinical, biochemical and histologic remission as has been reported in patients with autoimmune chronic active hepatitis treated with corticosteroids. Many of the trials did not use a double-blind design, failed to use the "intent to treat" rule or failed to define an objective time to analyze results. Many of the studies involved small numbers of patients with short-term follow-up and thus potentially were inadequate to appreciate drug effects that might be of clinical benefit. Currently, there is no totally effective therapy for primary biliary cirrhosis. We believe that well-designed clinical trials can provide important information to better understand this disease until a totally effective therapy is available. New clinical trials should use well-established methodologic guidelines in study design and well-accepted statistical standards in the analysis and interpretation of results.

Transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis is a frequent indication for liver transplantation. The purpose of this report is to present our experience with liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis. Attention is given to the causes of hepatic dysfunction seen in allografts. In addition, we review the postoperative problems encountered and the quality of life at time of last follow-up in patients with transplants for primary biliary cirrhosis. A total of 97 orthotopic liver transplant procedures were performed in 76 patients with advanced primary biliary cirrhosis at the University of Pittsburgh from March 1980 through September 1985. The transplant operation was relatively easy to perform. The most common technical complications experienced were fragmentation and intramural dissection of the recipient hepatic artery, which required an arterial graft in 20% of the cases. Most of the postoperative mortality occurred in the first 6 mo after transplantation, with an essentially flat actuarial life survival curve from that time point to a projected 5-yr survival of 66%. Common causes of death included rejection and primary graft nonfunction. Thirteen of the 76 patients had some hepatic dysfunction at the time of the last follow-up, although none were jaundiced. Recurrence of primary biliary cirrhosis could not be demonstrated in any of the patients. Antimitochondrial antibody was detected in the serum of almost all of the patients studied postoperatively for it. Most important, almost all of the 52 surviving patients have been rehabilitated socially and vocationally.

The evolution of changes in quantitative liver function tests in a rat model of biliary cirrhosis: correlation with morphometric measurement of hepatocyte mass

The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic significance of functional changes in the liver during progression of cirrhosis. Liver function was quantitated weekly by the aminopyrine breath test (measuring microsomal function) and the galactose breath test (measuring cytosolic function) in rats made cirrhotic by bile duct ligation (n = 14) and in sham-surgery controls (n = 9). Nine rats died spontaneously of cirrhosis. Both the aminopyrine breath test and galactose breath test were sensitive (89%) predictors of death within 1 week, but the galactose breath test was more specific (83%). Morphometric measurements of livers from surviving cirrhotic animals and controls (n = 5 each) showed that mean hepatocyte mass was maintained in the cirrhotic livers [cirrhosis (17.0 +/- 2.0) vs. controls (13.9 +/- 0.9 gm)]. The galactose breath test was also maintained, whereas the aminopyrine breath test was significantly decreased in the surviving cirrhotics. The galactose breath test, but not the aminopyrine breath test, correlated with hepatocyte mass (r = 0.67). The aminopyrine breath test correlated with microsomal aminopyrine N-demethylase activity (r = 0.78). Serial use of quantitative liver tests allows prediction of time of death from cirrhosis in this model.

[Asymptomatic forms of primary biliary cirrhosis seen in 10 years in Picardie]

Thirty-one patients with primary biliary cirrhosis were observed in Picardy during the decade 1975-1984. Mean annual incidence was 2.6 per 10(6), and point prevalence, 13 per 10(6) inhabitants in 1984. Asymptomatic cases (without clinical manifestations of cholestasis) constituted 32% of all patients. In five of the 21 symptomatic patients, ascites and/or digestive hemorrhage due to ruptured esophageal varices revealed the disease. Nine patients (2 with initially asymptomatic PBC) died during the follow-up period. Cholelithiasis was present in 10 patients (32%) and one case of hepatocellular carcinoma was found at autopsy.

Primary biliary cirrhosis in men

To determine whether primary biliary cirrhosis differed in men and women we reviewed the presenting features and clinical course of 39 men and 191 women with primary biliary cirrhosis followed at this unit between 1970 and 1984. Age and severity of disease at time of diagnosis were similar in both groups. Pruritus was significantly less common in men than in women both at diagnosis and throughout the period of follow up (p less than 0.01). The difference in incidence of pruritus at diagnosis was most evident when the male group were compared with a group of premenopausal women, an observation which is consistent with involvement of sex steroid metabolism in the origin of pruritus. Skin pigmentation was also less marked in men at diagnosis (p less than 0.05). Autoimmune associated conditions, especially sicca syndrome, were more common in women. Survival was similar among men and women although hepatoma developed significantly more frequently in male patients (p less than 0.01).

Use of a prognostic index in evaluation of liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis

In the Cambridge/King's College Hospital program, one of the main criteria for recommendation of a liver transplant for a patient with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), as in other types of end-stage liver disease, has been the overall assessment that survival was likely to be less than one year. In the present study, a recently developed prognostic model, based on six variables, was used retrospectively to estimate the likely survival without transplantation of the first 29 patients receiving a transplant for PBC. Median estimated survival time for the complete group of patients was five months and in only four patients was survival in the absence of transplantation estimated to be more than one year. Comparison of actual survival curves after transplantation with the estimated survival in the absence of such a procedure shows that, despite an initial higher mortality related to surgery and the immediate postoperative period, grafting was associated with a statistically significant improvement in overall survival. No correlation between the outcome after transplantation and the severity of preexisting liver disease, (as assessed by the expected survival) could be determined, but further assessment of preoperative variables is warranted.

The N-terminal propeptide of collagen type III in serum as a prognostic indicator in primary biliary cirrhosis

The serum level of N-terminal propeptide of collagen III (Col 1-3) has received increasing attention as a possible marker of liver fibrosis. Elevated levels have been reported in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). We measured Col 1-3 levels in 24 patients with PBC (mean age 56 +/- 8 years) and compared their value as a prognostic marker with serum bilirubin and IgM levels, the aminopyrine demethylating capacity (ABT) and presence of clinical symptoms. Mean observation time was 5.1 +/- 2.7 years. When these parameters and age were evaluated as predictive factors for survival, only bilirubin, Col 1-3 levels and symptom status variables were found to be significant. When tested as explanatory variables for survival in a stepwise linear logistic regression model Col 1-3 was identified as the strongest significant (P less than 0.001) explanatory variable followed by bilirubin (P less than 0.01) whereas the symptom status emerged as a non-significant variable. The results suggest that the serum level of Col 1-3 may be a useful prognostic indicator in PBC, which is independent of the bilirubin level.

Beneficial effect of azathioprine and prediction of prognosis in primary biliary cirrhosis. Final results of an international trial

The effect of azathioprine on survival of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis was studied prospectively in a multinational, double-blind, randomized clinical trial including 248 patients of whom 127 received azathioprine and 121 placebo. There were 57 deaths in the azathioprine group and 62 in the placebo group. The actual survival was slightly longer during azathioprine than during placebo treatment. Using Cox multiple regression analysis and adjusting for slight imbalance between the two treatment groups, the therapeutic effect of azathioprine was statistically significant (p = 0.01), with azathioprine reducing the risk of dying to 59% of that observed during placebo treatment (95% confidence interval 40%-90%) or improving survival time by 20 mo in the average patient. Furthermore, azathioprine slowed down progressing incapacitation. Side effects of azathioprine were relatively few. The analysis revealed that the following five variables independently implied poor prognosis: high serum bilirubin, old age, cirrhosis, low serum albumin, and central cholestasis. These factors were combined to a "prognostic index" for prediction of outcome in new patients. The index was validated on independent patient data. On the basis of these results we recommend azathioprine as a routine treatment of primary biliary cirrhosis.

Asymptomatic primary biliary cirrhosis. A progress report on long-term follow-up and natural history

Thirty-six patients presenting with asymptomatic primary biliary cirrhosis have been followed for a median period of 11.4 yr, extending by 5 yr a previously reported median follow-up study of 6 yr. Life table survival analysis indicates that the overall survival of this subgroup of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis continues to remain similar to that of the general population (p = 0.91). Over this period, 15 patients developed symptoms and 8 patients died, 6 from liver disease; 21 patients remained in an asymptomatic state. Portal granulomas on initial liver biopsy were the only finding that correlated with a normal survival and a continued asymptomatic state (p = 0.03). In contrast, associated autoimmune disorders (thyroiditis, sicca syndrome, CRST syndrome, Raynaud's phenomenon) correlated with decreased survival (p = 0.01). No other clinical, laboratory, or histologic features correlated with survival or the development of symptoms. This extended follow-up study (median 11.4 yr) indicates that many patients with asymptomatic primary biliary cirrhosis have a benign outcome. Although 42% developed signs or symptoms of progressive disease at variable times up to 14 yr from presentation, the group survival remained similar to the general population.

Trial of penicillamine in advanced primary biliary cirrhosis

A total of 227 patients with histologically advanced primary biliary cirrhosis entered a double-blind, randomized, controlled trial to determine whether penicillamine (1 g per day) was therapeutically effective; 111 patients received the drug, and 116 received placebo. The two groups were highly comparable at entry with regard to clinical, biochemical, and histologic features. Penicillamine therapy did not result in an overall improvement in survival as compared with placebo. Clinical symptoms and serial hepatic laboratory values reflected the progressive nature of the disease and were similar in both groups. There were no substantial differences between treatment groups in the morphologic features of sequential biopsy specimens. The development of major side effects led to permanent discontinuation of penicillamine in 22 per cent of the patients taking the drug. We conclude that penicillamine is not useful for patients with histologically advanced primary biliary cirrhosis. The trial is being continued in patients with early histologic disease whose better prognosis necessitates longer follow-up.

Double blind controlled trial of d-penicillamine in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis

One hundred and eighty nine patients with primary biliary cirrhosis were entered into a double blind, placebo controlled randomised trial starting in January 1978 to assess the therapeutic value of d-penicillamine 1200 mg daily. Eighteen of the 98 patients receiving d-penicillamine and 22 of the 91 placebo treated patients died during the study. Thirty six per cent of those on d-penicillamine and 8% of those on placebo were withdrawn from the study. No difference in overall survival was noted between the two groups of patients whether the results were analysed for the entire period of observation or only during the period in which the patients were receiving therapy. The mortality rate of those receiving d-penicillamine in histological stage I to II, however, was one third of that of the placebo group although this difference did not reach statistical significance. Using the occurrence rate ratio as the statistical method of analysis, no effect of d-penicillamine was noted on any clinical, biochemical or histological features examined, except the serum alanine aminotransferase activity which was greater in those on active treatment. In this trial we have been unable to establish any therapeutic benefit from the drug.

The prevalence and clinical spectrum of primary biliary cirrhosis in a defined population

We studied 33 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis representative of a well-defined population (240,000) during the decade 1973-82. Mean annual incidence was 13.7 per 10(6) and point prevalence, 92 per 10(6) inhabitants in 1982. An accumulation of asymptomatic cases, constituting 45% of all patients, with a normal life expectancy accounted for this high prevalence. During the study period no disease progress was seen in asymptomatic patients, in contrast to a 50% mortality in the symptomatic group. Disease progress in the latter group was reflected by deterioration of N-demethylating capacity and increasing bilirubin levels. Although our data confirm an increasing prevalence of primary biliary cirrhosis, the mortality rate during the study period was almost identical to that in an earlier period, 1951-60.

The prognostic importance of clinical and histologic features in asymptomatic and symptomatic primary biliary cirrhosis

To determine the life expectancy of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, we analyzed survival data from 280 patients with either symptomatic (243) or asymptomatic (37) disease. Patients were followed for up to 19 years (mean, 6.9 years). The average length of survival was 11.9 years--nearly twice that reported in other studies. In contrast, over a 12-year period the survival of the asymptomatic patients after diagnosis did not differ from that of a control population matched for age and sex. Jaundice, weight loss, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly, and ascites were each associated with a poor prognosis. Prognosis also correlated with the histologic stages of hepatic fibrosis, cholestasis, and periportal-cell necrosis. A multivariate analysis of clinical features revealed that at the onset of disease, age, hepatomegaly, and elevated levels of serum bilirubin were independent discriminators of a poor prognosis. A histologic finding of fibrosis limited to portal areas improved this discrimination, correlating with prolonged survival. No other factors enchanced the prediction of risk.

Portasystemic shunts in primary biliary cirrhosis: survival is the same as in patients with Laennec's cirrhosis and postnecrotic cirrhosis

There is little information regarding survival of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) who undergo portasystemic shunt operations. The few published reports suggest that survival may be better in this group than in patients with other types of cirrhosis who undergo this procedure. Therefore, we reviewed our experience with 17 patients with PBC who underwent portasystemic shunts and compared their survival with 100 patients with Laennec's and postnecrotic cirrhosis, using the life-table method. We find that survival rates are the same in patients with PBC, Laennec's cirrhosis, and postnecrotic cirrhosis following portasystemic anastomosis.

Primary biliary cirrhosis--a revised clinical spectrum

The presentation or method of detection of 93 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) from Northern England is reported. Almost half (45/93) the patients had no symptoms of liver disease when PBC was diagnosed; in many of them serum antimitochondrial activity (AMA) was detected during immunological screening for other diseases. 13 patients with normal liver function tests had symptomless PBC. Liver histology in 6 of these was diagnostic for PBC, and 7 had histology suggestive of PBC; all had a positive AMA titre greater than or equal to 1/40. The mortality of the symptom-free AMA-positive patients over a mean follow-up of 4-5 years did not differ from that of the general population. Only 1 out of 45 initially symptom-free patients died in the follow-up period (8 months-12 years). 37 patients had disorders which may be associated with PBC--including 16 with thyroid disease, 9 with rheumatoid arthritis, and 5 with mixed connective tissue disease. It is suggest that, as with autoimmune thyroid disease, overt organ damage never develops in many patients with symptomless PBC.

D-penicillamine treatment improves survival in primary biliary cirrhosis

The copper-chelating, immunological, and antifibrotic effects of D-penicillamine indicated that it might be suitable for the treatment of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). In a randomised clinical trail, 55 PBC patients received penicillamine (600 mg daily), and 32 received a placebo. Drug reactions developed in 16 patients on penicillamine. All deaths occurred in patients with stage 3 or 4 (late stage) liver histology on entry to the study. 5 (14%) of 37 penicillamine-treated patients and 10 (43%) of 23 placebo patients have died (p less than 0.01). Improvement in survival only became evident after 18 months. Survivors in the penicillamine group demonstrated a significant fall in serum aspartate transaminase, serum immunoglobulins, and liver copper concentrations. On follow-up liver biopsy 12-72 months (median 33) after joining the study, 21% of penicillamine-treated patients had less pronounced inflammation and piecemeal necrosis, whereas there had been no improvement in patients on placebo (p less than 0.02). Penicillamine did not retard the histological evolution of the liver disease from the early prefibrotic stages to the late fibrotic or cirrhotic stages. Both the copper-chelating and immunological effects of penicillamine are probably important in improving survival. The excellent prognosis of patients with PBC in its early histological stages, and the failure of penicillamine to prevent histological progression from early to late stages, suggests that penicillamine treatment should not be given to patients with PBC in the early (stage 1 or 2) histological phase of the disease. Penicillamine treatment is recommended in patients once liver biopsy has demonstrated histological results typical of late stage 3 or 4 PBC.

Results of portal decompression in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis

Twenty-five patients with primary biliary cirrhosis undergoing portal decompression have been followed up for a mean of 51 months. Five patients with decompensated cirrhosis died postoperatively. Overall five year survival of 66% is comparable with that for other forms of cirrhosis but none of the long-term survivors, including three patients with a precirrhotic stage of primary biliary cirrhosis at the time of surgery, developed significant portal-systemic encephalopathy. The results suggest that portal decompression may be the therapy of choice for patients with well-compensated primary biliary cirrhosis who suffer recurrent variceal haemorrhage.

Serum bilirubin: a prognostic factor in primary biliary cirrhosis

We followed up 55 patients with proven primary biliary cirrhosis for several years or until death. A graph of the level of serum bilirubin versus time that was constructed for each patient shows an initial period of variable length in which the serum bilirubin level remained constant. This was followed by a period of rapid rise in serum bilirubin which culminated in the patient's death. Whenever two successive serum bilirubin values taken six months apart exceeded 34 mumol/l (2.0 mg/dl) the patient had entered a late phase of disease and lived an average of 49 months. Ninety-five per cent confidence limits on survival time were 32-74 months. If two successive six month bilirubin values exceeded 102 mumol/l (6.0 mg/dl), calculated survival time was 25 months, and if two successive six month bilirubin values exceeded 170 mumol/l (10.0 mg/dl), survival time was 17 months. Fifteen of the 41 living patients had two consecutive serum bilirubin levels greater than 34 mumol/l (2.0 mg/dl). However, the slope of the rising bilirubin in the living patients is only 35 mumol/l/yr (1.5 mg/dl/yr) compared with 42 mumol/l/yr (2.5 mg/dl/yr) in the dead patients. This means that patients with this disease not may be living considerably longer.

A prospective controlled trial of azathioprine in primary biliary cirrhosis

Between 1968 and 1974, azathioprine has been used in a controlled prospective trial to treat patients with symptomatic but precirrhotic primary cirrhosis. Forty-five patients were admitted, of whom 22 were given azathioprine in a dose of 2 mg per kg of body weight. During the 1st year, serum aspartate transaminase levels showed a significant change in favor of the treated group, but improvement did not continue. Throughout the trial, serum alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, cholesterol, albumin and immunoglobulin M values showed no significant change. Titers of serum mitochondrial antibodies tended to become negative more often in the treated than the untreated. Pruritus cannot be assessed objectively, but seemed less in the treated than in controls. Serial hepatic biopsy specimens showed the development of cirrhosis equally in the two groups. Survival, as judged by the life table method, was similar for the first 5 years of the trial. There was, however, a significant difference in favor of the treated group in the 6th year, although the number of patients available for assessment at that time was extremely small.

The epidemiology of primary biliary cirrhosis: a survey of mortality in England and Wales

Primary biliary cirrhosis is a rare disease in the general population. Estimates of its true incidence are difficult but since survival time is unaffected by treatment, mortality may reflect important regional and other variations. One hundred and sixty-five death certificates collected in England and Wales over the five-year period 1967-1971 were inspected and confirmed an overwhelming predilection for females. Deaths rose sharply at ages 50-54 in the latter with a peak of 4.1 million(-1) year(-1), with perhaps a secondary peak at ages 70-74. No relation of mortality with climate, altitude, soil type, annual temperature range, or occupation was found, although outside the UK a broad correlation exists with total cirrhosis deaths. There was a suggestive excess of deaths among married women. The greater frequency of deaths in the London area, a rise in mortality from country to urban areas, a fall-off in deaths from primary biliary cirrhosis in old age, and predominance for social class I suggest a simple relationship with standards of medical care or diagnosis. An ;epidemic' of deaths in 1971 is attributed to greater availability of the mitochondrial antibody test in the regions. The importance of familial primary biliary cirrhosis and various models of pathogenesis are discussed. Both constitutional and environmental factors producing the disease must be widely distributed in the population of this country.

Portal hypertension in primary biliary cirrhosis

Evidence of portal hypertension was found in 50 out of 109 patients (47%) with primary biliary cirrhosis, and of these 32 bled from oesophageal varices. In four patients portal hypertension was the initial manifestation of the disease and this complication was recognized in a further 17 within two years of the first symptom of primary biliary cirrhosis. The development of portal hypertension was associated with a poor prognosis and death could frequently be attributed to variceal bleeding; the mean duration of survival from the time that portal hypertension was recognized was 14.9 months. Portal decompression operations may have improved the immediate prognosis in some patients but did not otherwise influence the progression of the disease. In 47 patients the histological findings in wedge biopsy or necropsy material were correlated with the presence or absence of varices. An association between nodular regeneration of the liver and varices was confirmed, but, in the absence of nodules, no other histological cause for portal venous obstruction could be found.