Influenza B Viruses Exhibit Lower Within-Host Diversity than Influenza A Viruses in Human Hosts

Influenza B virus (IBV) undergoes seasonal antigenic drift more slowly than influenza A virus, but the reasons for this difference are unclear. While the evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses play out globally, they are fundamentally driven by mutation, reassortment, drift, and selection at the level of individual hosts. These processes have recently been described for influenza A virus, but little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of IBV during individual infections and transmission events. Here, we define the within-host evolutionary dynamics of IBV by sequencing virus populations from naturally infected individuals enrolled in a prospective, community-based cohort over 8,176 person-seasons of observation. Through analysis of high depth-of-coverage sequencing data from samples from 91 individuals with influenza B, we find that IBV accumulates lower genetic diversity than previously observed for influenza A virus during acute infections. Consistent with studies of influenza A viruses, the within-host evolution of IBVs is characterized by purifying selection and the general absence of widespread positive selection of within-host variants. Analysis of shared genetic diversity across 15 sequence-validated transmission pairs suggests that IBV experiences a tight transmission bottleneck similar to that of influenza A virus. These patterns of local-scale evolution are consistent with the lower global evolutionary rate of IBV.IMPORTANCE The evolution of influenza virus is a significant public health problem and necessitates the annual evaluation of influenza vaccine formulation to keep pace with viral escape from herd immunity. Influenza B virus is a serious health concern for children, in particular, yet remains understudied compared to influenza A virus. Influenza B virus evolves more slowly than influenza A virus, but the factors underlying this are not completely understood. We studied how the within-host diversity of influenza B virus relates to its global evolution by sequencing viruses from a community-based cohort. We found that influenza B virus populations have lower within-host genetic diversity than influenza A virus and experience a tight genetic bottleneck during transmission. Our work provides insights into the varying dynamics of influenza viruses in human infection.

The complex associations of climate variability with seasonal influenza A and B virus transmission in subtropical Shanghai, China

Most previous studies focused on the association between climate variables and seasonal influenza activity in tropical or temperate zones, little is known about the associations in different influenza types in subtropical China. The study aimed to explore the associations of multiple climate variables with influenza A (Flu-A) and B virus (Flu-B) transmissions in Shanghai, China. Weekly influenza virus and climate data (mean temperature (MeanT), diurnal temperature range (DTR), relative humidity (RH) and wind velocity (Wv)) were collected between June 2012 and December 2018. Generalized linear models (GLMs), distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) and regression tree models were developed to assess such associations. MeanT exerted the peaking risk of Flu-A at 1.4 °C (2-weeks' cumulative relative risk (RR): 14.88, 95% confidence interval (CI): 8.67-23.31) and 25.8 °C (RR: 12.21, 95%CI: 6.64-19.83), Flu-B had the peak at 1.4 °C (RR: 26.44, 95%CI: 11.52-51.86). The highest RR of Flu-A was 23.05 (95%CI: 5.12-88.45) at DTR of 15.8 °C, that of Flu-B was 38.25 (95%CI: 15.82-87.61) at 3.2 °C. RH of 51.5% had the highest RR of Flu-A (9.98, 95%CI: 4.03-26.28) and Flu-B (4.63, 95%CI: 1.95-11.27). Wv of 3.5 m/s exerted the peaking RR of Flu-A (7.48, 95%CI: 2.73-30.04) and Flu-B (7.87, 95%CI: 5.53-11.91). DTR ≥ 12 °C and MeanT <22 °C were the key drivers for Flu-A and Flu-B, separately. The study found complex non-linear relationships between climate variability and different influenza types in Shanghai. We suggest the careful use of meteorological variables in influenza prediction in subtropical regions, considering such complex associations, which may facilitate government and health authorities to better minimize the impacts of seasonal influenza.

Implementing the World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Severity Assessment framework-Singapore's experience

BACKGROUND

We report our experience in evaluating the severity of local influenza epidemics using the World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Severity Assessment framework.

METHODS

We assessed the severity of influenza by monitoring indicators of influenza transmissibility, seriousness of disease and impact on healthcare resource utilisation. Indicators were described by various parameters collected weekly from eight government hospitals, 20 government and 30 private primary care clinics, and the national public health laboratory. Transmissibility and seriousness of disease indicators were each represented by multiple parameters, and alert thresholds were set at the 70th and 90th percentile of a parameter's past 2-year surveillance data. We derived a collective measure for each indicator using the average percentile rank of the related parameters. Alert thresholds for the single impact parameter were set at predefined values and evaluated for its sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value.

RESULTS

For the transmissibility and seriousness of disease parameters, calculation of the percentile rank was simple and independent of a parameter's underlying distribution. For the impact parameter, predefined alert thresholds had high sensitivity and specificity (>80%) but low positive predictive value (15%-30%). Assessment scales were used to qualitatively classify the activity of an indicator as low, moderate or high together with a confidence level.

CONCLUSION

We applied different methods for threshold setting depending on the attributes of each parameter and indicator. For indicators represented by multiple parameters, an aggregated assessment of the indicator's level of activity and confidence level of the assessment was needed for effective reporting.

Influenza A variants with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir isolated from Japanese patients are fit and transmit through respiratory droplets

Here we report the isolation of the influenza A/H1N1 2009 pandemic (A/H1N1pdm) and A/H3N2 viruses carrying an I38T mutation in the polymerase acidic protein-a mutation that confers reduced susceptibility to baloxavir marboxil-from patients before and after treatment with baloxavir marboxil in Japan. These variants showed replicative abilities and pathogenicity that is similar to those of wild-type isolates in hamsters; they also transmitted efficiently between ferrets by respiratory droplets.

Avian influenza viruses in humans: lessons from past outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Human infections with avian influenza viruses (AIV) represent a persistent public health threat. The principal risk factor governing human infection with AIV is from direct contact with infected poultry and is primarily observed in Asia and Egypt where live-bird markets are common.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

Changing patterns of virus transmission and a lack of obvious disease manifestations in avian species hampers early detection and efficient control of potentially zoonotic AIV.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

Despite extensive studies on biological and environmental risk factors, the exact conditions required for cross-species transmission from avian species to humans remain largely unknown.

GROWING POINTS

The development of a universal ('across-subtype') influenza vaccine and effective antiviral therapeutics are a priority.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

Sustained virus surveillance and collection of ecological and physiological parameters from birds in different environments is required to better understand influenza virus ecology and identify risk factors for human infection.

Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks

Accurate estimation of the parameters characterising infectious disease transmission is vital for optimising control interventions during epidemics. A valuable metric for assessing the current threat posed by an outbreak is the time-dependent reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary cases caused by each infected individual. This quantity can be estimated using data on the numbers of observed new cases at successive times during an epidemic and the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptomatic cases in a transmission chain). Some methods for estimating the reproduction number rely on pre-existing estimates of the serial interval distribution and assume that the entire outbreak is driven by local transmission. Here we show that accurate inference of current transmissibility, and the uncertainty associated with this estimate, requires: (i) up-to-date observations of the serial interval to be included, and; (ii) cases arising from local transmission to be distinguished from those imported from elsewhere. We demonstrate how pathogen transmissibility can be inferred appropriately using datasets from outbreaks of H1N1 influenza, Ebola virus disease and Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome. We present a tool for estimating the reproduction number in real-time during infectious disease outbreaks accurately, which is available as an R software package (EpiEstim 2.2). It is also accessible as an interactive, user-friendly online interface (EpiEstim App), permitting its use by non-specialists. Our tool is easy to apply for assessing the transmission potential, and hence informing control, during future outbreaks of a wide range of invading pathogens.

Airborne Transmission of Influenza Virus in a Hospital of Qinhuangdao During 2017-2018 Flu Season

The 2017-2018 flu season is considered to be one of the most severe, with numerous influenza outbreaks worldwide. In an infectious disease hospital of Qinhuangdao, air samples were collected daily from outpatient hall, clinical laboratory, fever clinic, children's ward (Children's Ward I/Children's Ward II), and adult ward during 23-29 January 2018 (peak flu activity) and 9-15 April 2018 (low flu activity). The air samples were collected with SLC-SiOH magnetic beads using impingement samplers. Real-time PCR assay was used to detect the RNA of airborne influenza (IFVA and IFVB) in the 91 collected aerosol samples. The results indicated that the air samples collected from the children's wards, adult ward and fever clinic were detected with airborne influenza viruses. However, the samples collected from outpatient hall and clinical laboratory were absence of influenza viruses. In addition, the subtypes of pH1N1/IFVA, H3N2/IFVA, yamagata/IFVB, and victoria/IFVB were detected among the samples with positive IFVA and IFVB. Notably, a new developed subtype of pH1N1 (an epidemic in 2018) was detected in the aerosol samples. In summary, this study profiled the distribution of airborne influenza in an infectious hospital in Qinhuangdao during 2017-2018 flu season. Patients infected with influenza could release airborne particles containing the virus into their environment. Healthcare workers and visitors in those places might have frequent exposure to airborne influenza virus. Therefore, we recommend some protective measures such as air disinfection and mask wearing to prevent and control the transmission of airborne influenza in hospital.

Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks

Accurate estimation of the parameters characterising infectious disease transmission is vital for optimising control interventions during epidemics. A valuable metric for assessing the current threat posed by an outbreak is the time-dependent reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary cases caused by each infected individual. This quantity can be estimated using data on the numbers of observed new cases at successive times during an epidemic and the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptomatic cases in a transmission chain). Some methods for estimating the reproduction number rely on pre-existing estimates of the serial interval distribution and assume that the entire outbreak is driven by local transmission. Here we show that accurate inference of current transmissibility, and the uncertainty associated with this estimate, requires: (i) up-to-date observations of the serial interval to be included, and; (ii) cases arising from local transmission to be distinguished from those imported from elsewhere. We demonstrate how pathogen transmissibility can be inferred appropriately using datasets from outbreaks of H1N1 influenza, Ebola virus disease and Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome. We present a tool for estimating the reproduction number in real-time during infectious disease outbreaks accurately, which is available as an R software package (EpiEstim 2.2). It is also accessible as an interactive, user-friendly online interface (EpiEstim App), permitting its use by non-specialists. Our tool is easy to apply for assessing the transmission potential, and hence informing control, during future outbreaks of a wide range of invading pathogens.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Influenza Morbidity and Its Association with Climatic and Housing Conditions in Ecuador

The external environment directly influences human health. However, what happens inside? This work deals with the effect that the interior thermal variables have on the propagation of respiratory diseases and focused on the relation of the temperature and relative humidity inside social housing in the 1040 parishes of Ecuador and the transmission of influenza. On the one hand, historical weather-related variables were used to simulate and estimate the interior conditions, and thresholds on temperature and humidity were determined. On the other hand, the health-related variable was determined by analyzing the statistics corresponding to the influenza and viral pneumonia in 2009 since that year was critical for these diseases; the data were divided by month for each parish. Finally, the correlation of these variables determines the relative importance of the interior conditions on the respiratory health of its inhabitants. The preliminary results indicate that the places with the lowest temperatures and relative humidity could favor the virus transmission. Also, the analysis indicated that respiratory diseases increase in August and October. In this way, it is clear that social housing projects in Ecuador require a study which guarantees not only energy efficiency and sustainability related issues but also the well-being of their inhabitants.

Human-to-Human Transmission of Influenza A(H3N2) Virus with Reduced Susceptibility to Baloxavir, Japan, February 2019

In 2019, influenza A(H3N2) viruses carrying an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic gene, which confers reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, were detected in Japan in an infant without baloxavir exposure and a baloxavir-treated sibling. These viruses’ whole-genome sequences were identical, indicating human-to-human transmission. Influenza virus isolates should be monitored for baloxavir susceptibility.

Comparative Pathogenicity and Transmissibility of the H7N9 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus and the H7N9 Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens

There were five outbreaks of H7N9 influenza virus in humans in China since it emerged in 2013, infecting >1000 people. The H7N9 low pathogenic influenza virus was inserted into four amino acids in the HA protein cleavage site to mutate into the H7N9 highly pathogenic virus. This emerging virus caused 15 outbreaks in chickens from the end of 2016 to date. Two H7N9 avian influenza virus (AIV) strains, A/chicken/Guangdong/A46/2013 (LPAIV) and A/chicken/Guangdong/Q29/2017 (HPAIV), were selected to compare the pathogenicity and transmissibility between H7N9 LPAIVs and HPAIVs in chickens. We inoculated 3- to 4-week-old specific-pathogen-free (SPF) chickens with 6 log₁₀EID₅₀/0.1 mL viruses via the ocular-nasal route and co-housed four chickens in each group. The inoculated chicken mortality rate in the A46 and Q29 groups was 1/5 and 5/5, respectively. Q29 virus replication was more efficient compared to the A46 virus in inoculated chickens. Infected chickens initiated viral shedding to naïve contact chickens through respiratory and digestive routes. Both viruses transmitted between chickens by naïve contact, but the Q29 virus had a higher pathogenicity in contact chickens than the A46 virus. Compared with early H7N9 LPAIVs, the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the emerging H7N9 HPAIV was stronger in chickens, indicating that H7N9 influenza virus may continue to threaten human and poultry health.

Nosocomial transmission of influenza: A retrospective cross-sectional study using next generation sequencing at a hospital in England (2012-2014)

BACKGROUND

The extent of transmission of influenza in hospital settings is poorly understood. Next generation sequencing may improve this by providing information on the genetic relatedness of viral strains.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to apply next generation sequencing to describe transmission in hospital and compare with methods based on routinely-collected data.

METHODS

All influenza samples taken through routine care from patients at University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (September 2012 to March 2014) were included. We conducted Illumina sequencing and identified genetic clusters. We compared nosocomial transmission estimates defined using classical methods (based on time from admission to sample) and genetic clustering. We identified pairs of cases with space-time links and assessed genetic relatedness.

RESULTS

We sequenced influenza sampled from 214 patients. There were 180 unique genetic strains, 16 (8.8%) of which seeded a new transmission chain. Nosocomial transmission was indicated for 32 (15.0%) cases using the classical definition and 34 (15.8%) based on genetic clustering. Of the 50 patients in a genetic cluster, 11 (22.0%) had known space-time links with other cases in the same cluster. Genetic distances between pairs of cases with space-time links were lower than for pairs without spatial links (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic data confirmed that nosocomial transmission contributes significantly to the hospital burden of influenza and elucidated transmission chains. Prospective next generation sequencing could support outbreak investigations and monitor the impact of infection and control measures.

Improving immunological insights into the ferret model of human viral infectious disease

Ferrets are a well-established model for studying both the pathogenesis and transmission of human respiratory viruses and evaluation of antiviral vaccines. Advanced immunological studies would add substantial value to the ferret models of disease but are hindered by the low number of ferret-reactive reagents available for flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry. Nevertheless, progress has been made to understand immune responses in the ferret model with a limited set of ferret-specific reagents and assays. This review examines current immunological insights gained from the ferret model across relevant human respiratory diseases, with a focus on influenza viruses. We highlight key knowledge gaps that need to be bridged to advance the utility of ferrets for immunological studies.

Estimated Incubation Period and Serial Interval for Human-to-Human Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Transmission

We estimated the incubation period and serial interval for human-to-human–transmitted avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection using case-patient clusters from epidemics in China during 2013–2017. The median incubation period was 4 days and serial interval 9 days. China’s 10-day monitoring period for close contacts of case-patients should detect most secondary infections.

Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation

Seasonal influenza poses serious problems for global public health, being a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. In England, there has been a long-standing national vaccination programme, with vaccination of at-risk groups and children offering partial protection against infection. Transmission models have been a fundamental component of analysis, informing the efficient use of limited resources. However, these models generally treat each season and each strain circulating within that season in isolation. Here, we amalgamate multiple data sources to calibrate a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered type transmission model for seasonal influenza, incorporating the four main strains and mechanisms linking prior season epidemiological outcomes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Data pertaining to nine influenza seasons, starting with the 2009/10 season, informed our estimates for epidemiological processes, virological sample positivity, vaccine uptake and efficacy attributes, and general practitioner influenza-like-illness consultations as reported by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC). We performed parameter inference via approximate Bayesian computation to assess strain transmissibility, dependence of present season influenza immunity on prior protection, and variability in the influenza case ascertainment across seasons. This produced reasonable agreement between model and data on the annual strain composition. Parameter fits indicated that the propagation of immunity from one season to the next is weaker if vaccine derived, compared to natural immunity from infection. Projecting the dynamics forward in time suggests that while historic immunity plays an important role in determining annual strain composition, the variability in vaccine efficacy hampers our ability to make long-term predictions.

Improving risk assessment of the emergence of novel influenza A viruses by incorporating environmental surveillance

Reassortment is an evolutionary mechanism by which influenza A viruses (IAV) generate genetic novelty. Reassortment is an important driver of host jumps and is widespread according to retrospective surveillance studies. However, predicting the epidemiological risk of reassortant emergence in novel hosts from surveillance data remains challenging. IAV strains persist and co-occur in the environment, promoting co-infection during environmental transmission. These conditions offer opportunity to understand reassortant emergence in reservoir and spillover hosts. Specifically, environmental RNA could provide rich information for understanding the evolutionary ecology of segmented viruses, and transform our ability to quantify epidemiological risk to spillover hosts. However, significant challenges with recovering and interpreting genomic RNA from the environment have impeded progress towards predicting reassortant emergence from environmental surveillance data. We discuss how the fields of genomics, experimental ecology and epidemiological modelling are well positioned to address these challenges. Coupling quantitative disease models and natural transmission studies with new molecular technologies, such as deep-mutational scanning and single-virus sequencing of environmental samples, should dramatically improve our understanding of viral co-occurrence and reassortment. We define observable risk metrics for emerging molecular technologies and propose a conceptual research framework for improving accuracy and efficiency of risk prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Situations Leading to Reduced Effectiveness of Current Hand Hygiene against Infectious Mucus from Influenza Virus-Infected Patients

Both antiseptic hand rubbing (AHR) using ethanol-based disinfectants (EBDs) and antiseptic hand washing (AHW) are important means of infection control to prevent seasonal influenza A virus (IAV) outbreaks. However, previous reports suggest a reduced efficacy of ethanol disinfection against pathogens in mucus. We aimed to elucidate the situations and mechanisms underlying the reduced efficacy of EBDs against IAV in infectious mucus. We evaluated IAV inactivation and ethanol concentration change using IAV-infected patients' mucus (sputum). Additionally, AHR and AHW effectiveness against infectious mucus adhering to the hands and fingers was evaluated in 10 volunteers. Our clinical study showed that EBD effectiveness against IAV in mucus was extremely reduced compared to IAV in saline. IAV in mucus remained active despite 120 s of AHR; however, IAV in saline was completely inactivated within 30 s. Due to the low rate of diffusion/convection because of the physical properties of mucus as a hydrogel, the time required for the ethanol concentration to reach an IAV inactivation level and thus for EBDs to completely inactivate IAV was approximately eight times longer in mucus than in saline. On the other hand, AHR inactivated IAV in mucus within 30 s when the mucus dried completely because the hydrogel characteristics were lost. Additionally, AHW rapidly inactivated IAV. Until infectious mucus has completely dried, infectious IAV can remain on the hands and fingers, even after appropriate AHR using EBD, thereby increasing the risk of IAV transmission. We clarified the ineffectiveness of EBD use against IAV in infectious mucus.IMPORTANCE Antiseptic hand rubbing (AHR) and antiseptic hand washing (AHW) are important to prevent the spread of influenza A virus (IAV). This study elucidated the situations/mechanisms underlying the reduced efficacy of AHR against infectious mucus derived from IAV-infected individuals and indicated the weaknesses of the current hand hygiene regimens. Due to the low rate of diffusion/convection because of the physical properties of mucus as a hydrogel, the efficacy of AHR using ethanol-based disinfectant against mucus is greatly reduced until infectious mucus adhering to the hands/fingers has completely dried. If there is insufficient time before treating the next patient (i.e., if the infectious mucus is not completely dry), medical staff should be aware that effectiveness of AHR is reduced. Since AHW is effective against both dry and nondry infectious mucus, AHW should be adopted to compensate for these weaknesses of AHR.

Mathematical models of transmission dynamics and vaccine strategies in Hong Kong during the 2017-2018 winter influenza season

Two mathematical models described by simple ordinary differential equations are developed to investigate the Hong Kong influenza epidemic during 2017-2018 winter, based on overall epidemic dynamics and different influenza subtypes. The first model, describing the overall epidemic dynamics, provides the starting data for the second model which different influenza subtypes, and whose dynamics is further investigated. Weekly data from December 2017 to May 2018 are obtained from the data base of the Centre of Health Protection in Hong Kong, and used to parametrise the models. With the help of these models, we investigate the impact of different vaccination strategies and determine the corresponding critical vaccination coverage for different vaccine efficacies. The results suggest that at least 72% of Hong Kong population should have been vaccinated during 2017-2018 winter to prevent the seasonal epidemic by herd immunity (while data showed that only a maximum of 11.6% of the population were vaccinated). Our results also show that the critical vaccination coverage decreases with increasing vaccine efficacy, and the increase in one influenza subtype vaccine efficacy may lead to an increase in infections caused by a different subtype.

N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Clinical studies have been inconclusive about the effectiveness of N95 respirators and medical masks in preventing health care personnel (HCP) from acquiring workplace viral respiratory infections.

Objective

To compare the effect of N95 respirators vs medical masks for prevention of influenza and other viral respiratory infections among HCP.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A cluster randomized pragmatic effectiveness study conducted at 137 outpatient study sites at 7 US medical centers between September 2011 and May 2015, with final follow-up in June 2016. Each year for 4 years, during the 12-week period of peak viral respiratory illness, pairs of outpatient sites (clusters) within each center were matched and randomly assigned to the N95 respirator or medical mask groups.

Interventions

Overall, 1993 participants in 189 clusters were randomly assigned to wear N95 respirators (2512 HCP-seasons of observation) and 2058 in 191 clusters were randomly assigned to wear medical masks (2668 HCP-seasons) when near patients with respiratory illness.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Secondary outcomes included incidence of acute respiratory illness, laboratory-detected respiratory infections, laboratory-confirmed respiratory illness, and influenzalike illness. Adherence to interventions was assessed.

Results

Among 2862 randomized participants (mean [SD] age, 43 [11.5] years; 2369 [82.8%]) women), 2371 completed the study and accounted for 5180 HCP-seasons. There were 207 laboratory-confirmed influenza infection events (8.2% of HCP-seasons) in the N95 respirator group and 193 (7.2% of HCP-seasons) in the medical mask group (difference, 1.0%, [95% CI, -0.5% to 2.5%]; P = .18) (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.18 [95% CI, 0.95-1.45]). There were 1556 acute respiratory illness events in the respirator group vs 1711 in the mask group (difference, -21.9 per 1000 HCP-seasons [95% CI, -48.2 to 4.4]; P = .10); 679 laboratory-detected respiratory infections in the respirator group vs 745 in the mask group (difference, -8.9 per 1000 HCP-seasons, [95% CI, -33.3 to 15.4]; P = .47); 371 laboratory-confirmed respiratory illness events in the respirator group vs 417 in the mask group (difference, -8.6 per 1000 HCP-seasons [95% CI, -28.2 to 10.9]; P = .39); and 128 influenzalike illness events in the respirator group vs 166 in the mask group (difference, -11.3 per 1000 HCP-seasons [95% CI, -23.8 to 1.3]; P = .08). In the respirator group, 89.4% of participants reported "always" or "sometimes" wearing their assigned devices vs 90.2% in the mask group.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among outpatient health care personnel, N95 respirators vs medical masks as worn by participants in this trial resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01249625.

The respiratory microbiota: associations with influenza symptomatology and viral shedding

PURPOSE

Manifestations of infection and the degree of influenza virus vary. We hypothesized that the nose/throat microbiota modifies the duration of influenza symptoms and viral shedding. Exploring these relationships may help identify additional methods for reducing influenza severity and transmission.

METHODS

Using a household transmission study in Nicaragua, we identified secondary cases of influenza virus infection, defined as contacts with detectable virus or a greater than 4-fold change in hemagglutinin inhibition antibody titer. We characterized the nose/throat microbiota of secondary cases before infection and explored whether the duration of symptoms and shedding differed by bacterial community characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 124 secondary cases of influenza, higher bacterial community diversity before infection was associated with longer shedding duration (Shannon acceleration factor [AF]: 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24, 2.10) and earlier time to infection (Shannon AF: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.97; Chao1 AF: 0.992, 95% CI: 0.986, 0.998). Neisseria and multiple other oligotypes were significantly associated with symptom and shedding durations and time to infection.

CONCLUSIONS

The nose/throat microbiota before influenza virus infection was associated with influenza symptoms and shedding durations. Further studies are needed to determine if the nose/throat microbiota is a viable target for reducing influenza symptoms and transmission.

Sequential, within-season infection with influenza A (H3N2) in a usually healthy vaccinated child

Cocirculation of varying influenza types, strains, and lineages allows coinfection and intra-season sequential infection, although a same-strain sequential infection has not been previously described. This case report describes the first known case of sequential laboratory-confirmed influenza A (H3N2) infections in a child within one season.

Phylodynamics of Influenza A/H1N1pdm09 in India Reveals Circulation Patterns and Increased Selection for Clade 6b Residues and Other High Mortality Mutants

The clinical severity and observed case fatality ratio of influenza A/H1N1pdm09 in India, particularly in 2015 and 2017 far exceeds current global estimates. Reasons for these frequent and severe epidemic waves remain unclear. We used Bayesian phylodynamic methods to uncover possible genetic explanations for this, while also identifying the transmission dynamics of A/H1N1pdm09 between 2009 and 2017 to inform future public health interventions. We reveal a disproportionate selection at haemagglutinin residue positions associated with increased morbidity and mortality in India such as position 222 and clade 6B characteristic residues, relative to equivalent isolates circulating globally. We also identify for the first time, increased selection at position 186 as potentially explaining the severity of recent A/H1N1pdm09 epidemics in India. We reveal national routes of A/H1N1pdm09 transmission, identifying Maharashtra as the most important state for the spread throughout India, while quantifying climactic, ecological, and transport factors as drivers of within-country transmission. Together these results have important implications for future A/H1N1pdm09 surveillance and control within India, but also for epidemic and pandemic risk prediction around the world.

Airborne transmission may have played a role in the spread of 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in the United States

The unprecedented 2015 outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 in the U.S. devastated its poultry industry and resulted in over $3 billion economic impacts. Today HPAI continues eroding poultry operations and disrupting animal protein supply chains around the world. Anecdotal evidence in 2015 suggested that in some cases the AI virus was aerially introduced into poultry houses, as abnormal bird mortality started near air inlets of the infected houses. This study modeled air movement trajectories and virus concentrations that were used to assess the probability or risk of airborne transmission for the 77 HPAI cases in Iowa. The results show that majority of the positive cases in Iowa might have received airborne virus, carried by fine particulate matter, from infected farms within the state (i.e., intrastate) and infected farms from the neighboring states (i.e., interstate). The modeled airborne virus concentrations at the Iowa recipient sites never exceeded the minimal infective doses for poultry; however, the continuous exposure might have increased airborne infection risks. In the worst-case scenario (i.e., maximum virus shedding rate, highest emission rate, and longest half-life), 33 Iowa cases had > 10% (three cases > 50%) infection probability, indicating a medium to high risk of airborne transmission for these cases. Probability of airborne HPAI infection could be affected by farm type, flock size, and distance to previously infected farms; and more importantly, it can be markedly reduced by swift depopulation and inlet air filtration. The research results provide insights into the risk of airborne transmission of HPAI virus via fine dust particles and the importance of preventative and containment strategies such as air filtration and quick depopulation of infected flocks.