Continuous 12-lead ST-segment recovery analysis in the TAMI 7 study. Performance of a noninvasive method for real-time detection of failed myocardial reperfusion

BACKGROUND

If a practical, reliable, noninvasive marker of failed reperfusion was available in real time, the benefits of further therapy in this patient subgroup could be tested. We developed a method of 12-lead ST-segment recovery analysis using continuously updated reference points to provide such a marker.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, our method was prospectively tested in 144 patients given thrombolytic therapy early in myocardial infarction. All patients had 12-lead continuous ST-segment monitoring and acute angiography, each analyzed in an independent, blinded core laboratory. ST-segment recovery and re-elevation were analyzed up to the moment of angiography, at which time patency was predicted. Predictions were correlated to angiographic infarct artery flow, with TIMI flow 0 to 1 as occluded and TIMI flow 2 to 3 as patent. Infarct artery occlusion was seen on first injection in 27% of patients. The positive predictive value of incomplete ST recovery or ST re-elevation by our method was 71%, negative predictive value 87%, with 90% specificity and 64% sensitivity for coronary occlusion. ST recovery analysis predicted patency in 94% of patients with TIMI 3 flow versus 81% of patients with TIMI 2 flow and predicted occlusion in 57% of patients with collateralized occlusion versus 72% of patients with non-collateralized occlusion. In a regression model including other noninvasive clinical descriptors, ST recovery alone contained the vast majority of predictive information about patency.

CONCLUSIONS

In a blinded, prospective, angiographically correlated study design, 12-lead continuous ST-segment recovery analysis shows promise as a practical noninvasive marker of failed reperfusion that may contribute substantially to currently available bedside assessment. Our data also suggest that patients with TIMI 2 flow or with collateralized occlusions may represent a physiological spectrum definable with ST-segment recovery analysis.

Systolic left ventricular function after reperfusion therapy for acute myocardial infarction. Analysis of determinants of improvement. The TAMI Study Group

BACKGROUND

Contrast ventriculograms of 542 patients treated with intravenous thrombolytic agents for acute myocardial infarction were examined to define changes in left ventricular ejection fraction and regional wall motion that occur during the first week after reperfusion therapy for acute myocardial infarction and define clinical, acute angiographic and treatment variables related to improvement in global and regional left ventricular function.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator and/or urokinase was administered to 805 patients during acute myocardial infarction. Mean time from symptom onset to thrombolytic therapy was 3 hours (22 patients received therapy within the first hour). Acute and 7-day catheterization were performed. Paired left ventricular ejection fraction and centerline regional wall motion were available in 542 patients (67%). Stepwise, multivariable analysis of clinical, acute angiographic and treatment variables was used to develop two models: One related to improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction, and the second related to improvement in infarct zone regional function. Left ventricular ejection fraction did not change (51.2 +/- 11.1% for acute versus 51.9 +/- 11.0% for 1 week, p = 0.19). Improvement in infarct zone regional function was modest (14%) at 1 week (-2.54 +/- 1.07 standard deviation per chord for acute versus -2.17 +/- 1.24 at 1 week, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis demonstrated modest improvement in ejection fraction (1.4 +/- 9.5%) and greater improvement in infarct zone function (19%) in patients with successful sustained reperfusion at 1 week. Depressed left ventricular ejection fraction and infarct zone regional wall motion at the acute study were strongly associated with improvement of these parameters at 1 week. Resolution of chest pain before acute catheterization, infarct-related artery flow at acute catheterization, and depressed regional wall motion in the noninfarct zone were associated with improvement in both ejection fraction and regional infarct zone function at 1 week. Notably, the time from the onset of symptoms to initiation of thrombolytic treatment was not related to subsequent improvement in ventricular function.

CONCLUSIONS

Dramatic improvement in left ventricular systolic function is not common after thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction. Improvement in global and regional systolic function is most closely related to acutely depressed ventricular function and successful acute coronary recanalization. Thus, patients with the most myocardium in jeopardy and successful coronary reperfusion demonstrate the greatest improvement in global and infarct zone ventricular function. Overall, the magnitude of this improvement is modest, suggesting that the benefits of coronary reperfusion are not solely related to improvement in systolic left ventricular function.

Improving oral health through understanding the meaning of health and disease in a Chinese culture

Advances in modern technology have undoubtedly been of benefit to dentistry in its preventive and curative activities for populations worldwide. Studies, mainly from Western societies, show nonetheless that utilisation of services or adoption of preventive methods are not taken up at satisfactory levels. The focus of this paper is on the special problems in a Chinese society where major differences exist between the traditional lay health concepts and the modernised professional ones. Traditional Chinese health concepts comprise the balance between and interaction of 'Yin' and 'Yang', the vital forces in both the universe and in man's body, as the basis for maintaining health. To restore a disturbed equilibrium of vital forces, which will manifest itself as disease, a range of dietary products are available in Hong Kong, for example cooling herb tea to reduce fire from the stomach producing gum disease. Seeking dental treatment from dentists could be delayed or made 'unnecessary' due to reliance on home remedies. This could reduce the effectiveness of any planned health education activities and dental services available for improving the oral health status of the community according to prevailing Western concepts. An understanding of the cultural meaning of dental disease is fundamental to changing beliefs and attitudes of people in order to improve the oral health of the community.

Value of the history and physical in identifying patients at increased risk for coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether information from the physician's initial evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease predicts coronary anatomy at catheterization and 3-year survival.

DESIGN

Prospective validation of regression model estimates in an outpatient cohort.

SETTING

University medical center.

PATIENTS

A total of 1030 consecutive outpatients referred for noninvasive testing for suspected coronary artery disease; 168 of these patients subsequently underwent catheterization within 90 days.

MEASUREMENTS

Information from the initial history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and chest radiograph was used to predict coronary anatomy (the likelihood of any significant coronary disease, severe disease [left main or three-vessel], and significant left main disease) among 168 catheterized patients and to estimate 3-year survival among all patients. These estimates were compared with those based on treadmill testing. Cardiovascular testing charges were calculated for all patients.

RESULTS

Predicted coronary anatomy and survival closely corresponded to actual findings. Compared with the treadmill exercise test, initial evaluation was slightly better able to distinguish patients with or without any coronary disease and was similar in the ability to identify patients at increased risk for dying or with anatomically severe disease. Based on arbitrary definitions, 37% to 66% of patients were at low risk and responsible for 31% to 56% of the charges for cardiovascular testing.

CONCLUSIONS

The physician's initial evaluation, despite the subjective nature of much of the information gathered, can be used to identify patients likely to benefit from further testing. The development of strategies for cost-conscious quality care must begin with the history, physical examination, and simple laboratory testing.

Observational comparison of event-free survival with medical and surgical therapy in patients with coronary artery disease. 20 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to describe the long-term event-free survival patterns of patients with significant coronary artery disease treated medically versus patterns of those treated surgically and to evaluate the factors associated with improved event-free survival.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied the results of 5,824 patients undergoing medical and surgical therapy for ischemic heart disease from 1969 to 1984, with follow-up to 1991. Events considered for this evaluation were nonfatal myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine factors differentially affecting surgical event-free survival. The survival benefits previously reported for bypass surgery in this population were largely preserved when event-free survival was examined. The two factors associated with significant event-free survival benefits for surgically treated patients were more severe coronary artery disease and a more recent surgery data. Patients with more severe coronary obstruction had a greater relative improvement with surgery in event-free survival than did patients with less severe anatomic disease. Event-free survival with surgery progressively improved over the period of the study and, by 1984, was significantly better than medical therapy for most patient subgroups. Patients with poor prognosis because of risk factors such as older age, severe angina, or left ventricular dysfunction had a risk reduction with surgery proportional to their overall risk under medical therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher-risk patients with more severe disease (due to either coronary disease or other risk factors and age) should be considered for coronary revascularization because it is in these patients that coronary artery bypass graft surgery has the greatest impact in reducing future cardiovascular events.

Identification of patients with coronary disease at high risk for loss of employment. A prospective validation study

BACKGROUND

Work disability is common in patients with coronary artery disease and adversely affects both economic well-being and quality of life. The purpose of this study was to construct a model to predict premature departure from the work force of patients with coronary disease and to validate this model prospectively in an independent cohort of patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We enrolled 1,252 coronary disease patients referred for diagnostic cardiac catheterization who were less than age 65, employed, and without prior coronary angioplasty or coronary bypass surgery. Medical, functional, psychological, economic, and job-related variables were measured at the time of baseline diagnostic cardiac catheterization, and all patients were followed for 1 year. Three hundred twelve patients underwent percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) within 60 days of catheterization, and 449 had coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) within 60 days of catheterization. The remaining 491 patients were treated with initial medical therapy. Logistic regression was used to develop a multivariable model for predicting 1-year work status in the training sample patients (872 patients enrolled between March 1986 and February 1989). This model was then validated in the independent prospective test sample (380 patients enrolled between March 1989 and June 1990). Eight factors were independent predictors of departure from the work force: lower initial functional status (as assessed by the Duke Activity Status Index), followed by older age, black race, presence of congestive heart failure, lower education level, presence of extracardiac vascular disease, poorer psychological status, and lower job classification. Standard clinical variables provided only 20% of the total predictive information available from the model about follow-up work outcomes, whereas functional measures provided 27%, and demographic and socioeconomic measures provided 45%. In the test sample, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model predictions was 0.74, compared with 0.80 in the training sample, and model predictions agreed well with observed prevalences of return to work. After adjustment for baseline imbalances, there was no significant difference in 1-year return-to-work rates among the patients receiving initial PTCA or CABG therapy versus initial medical therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with coronary disease who are at high risk for premature departure from the work force can be accurately identified from a combination of medical and nonmedical risk factors. The model developed in this study provides a tool to identify patients at high risk for premature loss from the work force. Such patients may benefit from special multidimensional intervention programs designed to preserve work status. Our data show that revascularization with either PTCA or CABG is not, by itself, sufficient to accomplish this goal.

beta-Glycerophosphate-induced mineralization of osteoid does not alter expression of extracellular matrix components in fetal rat calvarial cell cultures

When fetal rat calvarial cells are cultured in medium containing vitamin C, osteoid nodules develop after approximately 15 days of culture. Upon addition of an organic phosphate (beta-glycerophosphate, beta GP), these nodules mineralize. We have now used this system to explore the suggestion made by others that a negative feedback may exist between matrix mineralization on the one hand and the synthesis of alkaline phosphatase and bone matrix collagen on the other by analyzing the synthesis of these proteins and the levels of their mRNAs in mineralizing and nonmineralizing cultures. Our results indicate that in the osteoid nodule-bone nodule system, matrix mineralization did not affect the mRNA levels for osteopontin, type I collagen, bone sialoprotein, or osteocalcin. Synthesis of total protein and collagen and the osteocalcin content of culture media were also not different in the mineralizing and nonmineralizing cultures. However, alkaline phosphatase mRNA was increased in early mineralizing cultures and alkaline phosphatase activity in the cell layer was also increased in mineralizing cultures. Thus, the hypothesis that a direct negative feedback exists between mineralization and matrix protein synthesis is not supported by our experiments.

Insulin increases transcription of rat gene 33 through cis-acting elements in 5'-flanking DNA

Gene 33 is a multihormonally-regulated rat gene whose transcription is rapidly and markedly enhanced by insulin in liver and cultured hepatoma cells. To examine the mechanism by which insulin regulates transcription, we have constructed chimeric plasmids in which expression of the bacterial cat gene, encoding chloramphenicol acetyltransferase (CAT), is governed by gene 33 promoter elements and contiguous sequences in DNA flanking the transcription start point (tsp). When transfected into H4IIE hepatoma cells, these constructs gave rise to stably transformed cell lines producing the bacterial CAT enzyme. This expression was increased by insulin treatment in a fashion resembling the effect of this hormone on transcription of the native gene. In vitro transcription assays in nuclear extracts also revealed increased transcription of the chimeric plasmids when the extracts were prepared from insulin-treated rat hepatoma cells. The results demonstrate that induction by insulin is mediated by cis-acting nucleotide sequences located between bp -480 to +27 relative to the tsp.

Referral patterns for coronary artery disease treatment: gender bias or good clinical judgment?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a gender bias exists in referral for coronary bypass graft surgery among patients with catheterization-documented coronary artery disease.

DESIGN

Historical cohort study (1969 to 1984).

SETTING

A referral medical center.

PATIENTS

A total of 5795 patients with catheterization-documented coronary artery disease.

MEASUREMENTS

Surgical referral patterns of men and women grouped by risk for cardiac death and by treatment effectiveness. Time trends were evaluated for three periods: 1969 to 1974, 1975 to 1979, and 1980 to 1984.

RESULTS

Overall, when no adjustment was made for baseline risk for cardiac death, no statistical difference was found between men and women regarding referral for surgery (46% compared with 44%, respectively). When an adjustment was made for such risk, the male-to-female odds ratio for surgical referral was 1.28 (95% Cl, 1.05 to 1.58) among patients with a low risk for cardiac death. This effect was most evident in the 1980 to 1984 period (odds ratio, 1.73; Cl, 1.29 to 2.31). In the high-risk group, the odds ratio was 0.84 (Cl, 0.68 to 1.04), with little change occurring during the study. Men were more likely to be referred for surgery when surgery offered the least survival benefit relative to medical therapy (odds ratio, 1.29; Cl, 1.08 to 1.54). This effect was most pronounced in the 1980 to 1984 period (odds ratio, 1.63; Cl, 1.27 to 2.10).

CONCLUSIONS

Women are less likely than men to be referred for coronary bypass graft surgery among patients with a low risk for cardiac death, in whom surgery offers little or no survival benefit over medical treatment. Women are at least as likely as men to be referred for bypass surgery among more symptomatic and more severely diseased patients, in whom surgery offers the greatest survival benefits. These trends were most prominent in the recent years of the study. Based on surgical survival benefits, these referral patterns may represent more appropriate treatment referral for women than men.

Serum cholesterol in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization for suspected coronary artery disease: diagnostic and prognostic implications

The Duke Data Bank for Cardiovascular Diseases is an observational data bank capturing baseline, treatment, and follow-up information on patients referred for evaluation of suspected coronary artery disease. From 6829 patients referred between 1969 and 1990 for diagnostic angiography, baseline cholesterol levels were determined as part of the standard clinical procedure. Baseline total cholesterol values were found to be related to the presence of coronary disease in men and women, although in the elderly little evidence for a significant relationship was found. Formal tests for interactions revealed a significant interaction between age and cholesterol but not between gender and cholesterol. In subgroup analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model, no relationship was found between cholesterol and either cardiovascular death or total cardiac events (death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) in 2038 medically treated patients with 5 to 20 years of follow-up. In the subgroup of 1798 surgically treated patients, there was also no relationship between baseline cholesterol level and these end points. Finally, detailed lipid analysis was done at baseline and 6-month angiography in a second population of 759 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary angioplasty between 1986 and 1989. No substantial relationship between baseline or follow-up cholesterol, low-density or high-density lipoproteins, or triglyceride levels and restenosis was found.

Incessant automatic ventricular tachycardia complicating acute coxsackie B myocarditis

A 13-year-old girl presented with incessant ventricular tachycardia complicating acute Coxsackie B3 myocarditis. Electrophysiologic assessment revealed that the tachycardia could not be terminated, overdrive suppressed or accelerated by programmed electrical stimulation, but was transiently slowed by intravenous adenosine triphosphate and had marked spontaneous and sympathoautonomic-mediated fluctuation in the tachycardia cycle length. These features were atypical of reentry and triggered automaticity and suggested that abnormal automaticity was the likely tachycardia mechanism. Intravenous amiodarone slowed the ventricular tachycardia, but the patient eventually succumbed from rapidly progressive left ventricular failure. Postmortem pathohistologic examination confirmed the diagnosis of acute myocarditis.

Determinants of early versus late cardiac death in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery

Most analyses of risk factors affecting survival after coronary artery bypass graft surgery have not differentiated among factors that influence early and late survival. For this reason, a multiphase model was applied to survival data from 2,967 patients undergoing a first coronary artery bypass graft at the Duke University Medical Center between 1969 and 1984. There were 709 deaths during follow-up to 19.6 years. The data were analyzed using a multivariable survival model that separates the underlying hazard function into as much as three different phases, each incorporating separate risk factors. Two distinct phases were detected. One phase dominated early survival (0-1 year), and the second phase dominated late survival (greater than 1 year). Surgery performed earlier in our experience was associated with elevated risk of dying in both phases but with different magnitudes, whereas lower ejection fraction, greater extent of coronary disease, older age, conduction abnormality, and history of hypertension were associated with elevated risk of dying similarly in both phases (p less than 0.05). Severity of angina symptoms and lower weight were associated with an elevated risk of dying only in the early phase (p less than 0.05; because few of the patients were obese, estimates of the relative risk of morbid obesity could not be estimated), whereas vascular disease, diabetes, and extent of myocardial damage were associated with an elevated risk of dying only in the late phase (p less than 0.05). These data illustrate both the differential influence of risk factors over time and the importance of multiphase models.

Prognostic value of a treadmill exercise score in outpatients with suspected coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

The treadmill exercise test identifies patients with different degrees of risk of death from cardiovascular events. We devised a prognostic score, based on the results of treadmill exercise testing, that accurately predicts outcome among inpatients referred for cardiac catheterization. This study was designed to determine whether this score could also accurately predict prognosis in unselected outpatients.

METHODS

We prospectively studied 613 consecutive outpatients with suspected coronary disease who were referred for exercise testing between 1983 and 1985. Follow-up was 98 percent complete at four years. The treadmill score was calculated as follows: duration of exercise in minutes--(5 x the maximal ST-segment deviation during or after exercise, in millimeters)--(4 x the treadmill angina index). The numerical treadmill angina index was 0 for no angina, 1 for nonlimiting angina, and 2 for exercise-limiting angina. Treadmill scores ranged from -25 (indicating the highest risk) to +15 (indicating the lowest risk).

RESULTS

Predicted outcomes for the outpatients, based on their treadmill scores, agreed closely with the observed outcomes. The score accurately separated patients who subsequently died from those who lived for four years (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve = 0.849). The treadmill score was a better discriminator than the clinical data and was even more useful for outpatients than it had been for inpatients. Approximately two thirds of the outpatients had treadmill scores indicating low risk (greater than or equal to +5), reflecting longer exercise times and little or no ST-segment deviation, and their four-year survival rate was 99 percent (average annual mortality rate, 0.25 percent). Four percent of the outpatients had scores indicating high risk (less than -10), reflecting shorter exercise times and more severe ST-segment deviation; their four-year survival rate was 79 percent (average annual mortality rate, 5 percent).

CONCLUSIONS

The treadmill score is a useful and valid tool that can help clinicians determine prognosis and decide whether to refer outpatients with suspected coronary disease for cardiac catheterization. In this study, it was a better predictor of outcome than the clinical assessment.

Dynamics of behavioral thermoregulation in the rat

Past studies have found that the laboratory rat placed in a temperature gradient prefers temperatures that are markedly below its lower critical ambient temperature (LCT), whereas other rodents (e.g., mouse, hamster, and guinea pig) generally select thermal environments associated with minimal metabolic expenditure. To further study the rat's thermoregulatory behavior, a temperature gradient was designed to monitor the selected ambient temperature (STa) and motor activity (MA) of food-deprived rats of the Long-Evans (LE), Fischer 344 (F344), and Sprague-Dawley (SD) strains over a 22-h period. All three rat strains selected relatively cool STas of 21-26 degrees C during the first 1-3 h in the temperature gradient. This was followed by a gradual increase in the STa that peaked at 4 (F344) to 6 h (SD and LE) after being placed in the gradient. The LE strain had a significantly lower STa during the initial period in the gradient. There were slight decreases in the STa during the nocturnal phase in the F344 and SD strains concomitant with marked increases in MA. These results indicate that the rat requires a relatively long adjustment period in a temperature gradient before it exhibits STas that are associated with minimal metabolic expenditure. Given adequate time for accommodation, behavioral thermoregulatory responses of the rat appear to be similar to those of other rodents.

Diastolic anisotropic properties of the left ventricle in the conscious dog

The role of myocardial anisotropy in determining change in left ventricular shape during diastolic filling has not yet been demonstrated. Therefore, 11 conscious dogs were instrumented with global ultrasonic dimension transducers to measure left ventricular major and minor axis diameters and equatorial wall thickness. Myocardial geometry was represented as a three-dimensional ellipsoidal shell. Left ventricular transmural pressure was measured with micromanometers, and ventricular volume was varied by inflation of vena caval occluders. Left ventricular wall strains and stresses calculated from the ellipsoidal shell model agreed closely with those measured directly by myocardial force and dimension transducers. Unequal normalized diastolic stress-strain relations were observed in the latitudinal, longitudinal, and wall thickness directions, reflecting anisotropic mechanical properties of the myocardium. Although a greater wall stress in the latitudinal versus longitudinal axis was predicted adequately from left ventricular geometry alone, the observed latitudinal strain exceeded longitudinal strain by an amount greater than was predicted by geometric considerations alone, suggesting that myocardial anisotropy contributes significantly to changes in ventricular shape during diastolic filling.

Exercise radionuclide angiocardiography predicts cardiac death in patients with coronary artery disease

The purpose of this investigation was to document the relative importance of three clinical and three radionuclide variables for prediction of cardiac death in a consecutive group of patients evaluated for coronary artery disease. During a 6 1/2-year period, beginning in January 1978, 2,042 consecutive patients underwent radionuclide angiocardiography, with a clinical diagnosis of coronary artery disease, at Duke University Medical Center. A subgroup of 318 patients who underwent surgical myocardial revascularization near the time of initial study were excluded from later analysis. Clinical follow-up information was complete in a group of 1,663 patients who did not undergo interventional therapy. The 141 cardiac deaths in these 1,663 patients were the study end point. Cox proportional hazards models analyzed the prognostic information contained in three clinical variables (pain type, age, and sex) and three radionuclide angiocardiogram variables (exercise ejection fraction, resting end-diastolic volume, and change in heart rate with exercise). One-variable models confirmed the prognostic importance of each of these six variables. A multivariable model in which all six variables were used showed clinical variables to contain only 5% and the radionuclide variables 95% of the prognostic information. The exercise ejection fraction was the single most important variable, which alone contained 85% of the total information in the model. Curves relating probability of no cardiac death to the exercise ejection fraction identified a value of 0.50 as an inflection point. Patients with exercise ejection fractions below 0.50 demonstrate a probability of cardiac death that increases as the ejection fraction decreases.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Estimating the likelihood of severe coronary artery disease

PURPOSE

To determine which clinical characteristics obtained by a physician during an initial clinical examination are important for estimating the likelihood of severe coronary artery disease, and to determine whether estimates based on these characteristics remain valid when applied prospectively and in different patient groups.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We examined clinical characteristics predictive of severe disease in 6,435 consecutive symptomatic patients referred for suspected coronary artery disease between 1969 and 1983.

RESULTS

Eleven of 23 characteristics were important for estimating the likelihood of severe coronary artery disease. A model using these characteristics accurately estimated the likelihood of severe disease in an independent sample of 2,342 patients referred since 1983. The model also accurately estimated the prevalence of severe disease in large series of patients reported in the literature.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the clinician's initial evaluation can identify patients at high or low risk of anatomically severe coronary artery disease. Cost-conscious quality care is encouraged by identifying patients at higher risk for severe coronary artery disease who are most likely to benefit from further evaluation.

Prediction of death and myocardial infarction by radionuclide angiocardiography in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

The prognostic value of radionuclide angiocardiography was examined in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Nine hundred and eight patients who underwent rest and exercise radionuclide angiocardiography without subsequent cardiac catheterization were followed for a median of 4.6 years. Fifty-two cardiovascular deaths and 28 nonfatal myocardial infarctions occurred during the follow-up period. Thirty-nine radionuclide angiocardiographic and clinical variables were analyzed in association with the end points of cardiovascular death, total cardiac events and death from all causes using the Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. Univariable analysis identified the exercise ejection fraction as the best predictor of cardiovascular death (chi-square = 82), total cardiac events (chi-square = 84) and death from all causes (chi-square = 66). A small subset of patients (n = 45) with an exercise ejection fraction less than 0.35 were at high risk for future cardiac events, whereas most patients (n = 776) had an exercise ejection fraction greater than or equal to 0.50 and a low probability of a subsequent event. Three variables--the exercise ejection fraction, the exercise change in heart rate, and gender--contained independent prognostic information determined by multivariable analysis. The exercise ejection fraction was the strongest independent predictor (p less than 0.0001) for every end point. The measurement of ventricular function during exercise provides important independent prognostic information in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Radionuclide angiocardiography successfully identifies patients requiring invasive assessment, and the low probability of cardiac events in patients with good exercise ventricular function obviates the need for interventional therapy.

Methods for the analysis and assessment of clinical databases: the clinician's perspective

Innovative approaches to analysing clinical databases can be considered from a perspective of innovations that improve the analytical approach or from a more global perspective in which clinical databases themselves are evaluated as a technology. The analytic approach for using a database to estimate risk can be considered as a matrix of three methodologic concerns: the predictive method; the assessment of the quality of the predictions; and the assessment of the validity or generalizability of the predictions. Considering databases as a technology places in perspective the merit of clinical databases and defines their potential value to the health care system. An awareness of both the clinical and analytic problem encourages innovation and can lead to creative solutions to the many problems present in the analysis of clinical databases.

Complete atrioventricular block complicating inferior wall acute myocardial infarction treated with reperfusion therapy. TAMI Study Group

Previous studies report larger myocardial infarcts and increased in-hospital mortality rates in patients with inferior wall acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and complete atrioventricular block (AV), but the clinical implications of these complications in patients treated with reperfusion therapy have not been addressed. The clinical course of 373 patients--50 (13%) of whom developed complete AV block--admitted with inferior wall AMI and given thrombolytic therapy within 6 hours of symptom onset was studied. Acute patency rates of the infarct artery after thrombolytic therapy were similar in patients with or without AV block. Ventricular function measured at baseline and before discharge in patients with complete AV block showed a decrement in median ejection fraction (-3.5 vs -0.4%, p = 0.03) and in median regional wall motion (-0.14 vs +0.24 standard deviations/chord, p = 0.05). The reocclusion rate was higher in patients with complete AV block (29 vs 16%, p = 0.03). Patients with complete AV block had more episodes of ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia (36 vs 14%, p less than 0.001), sustained hypotension (36 vs 10%, p less than 0.001), pulmonary edema (12 vs 4%, p = 0.02) and a higher in-hospital mortality rate (20 vs 4%, p less than 0.001), although the mortality rate after hospital discharge was identical (2%) in the 2 groups. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that complete AV block was a strong independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (p = 0.0006). Thus, despite initial successful reperfusion, patients with inferior wall AMI and complete AV block have higher rates of in-hospital complications and mortality.

Effect of extended depot fluphenazine treatment and withdrawal on social and other behaviors of Cebus apella monkeys

To examine whether or not prolonged exposure to a depot neuroleptic has either residual or "tardive pathological" effects on normal behavior, 38 Cebus apella monkeys were observed daily for 108 weeks. The issue of stress influencing such effects was also addressed. During weeks 25-48 half of the monkeys received 0.22 mg/kg fluphenazine decanoate, IM, every 3 weeks, with the dose increased to 0.33 mg/kg during weeks 49-72. Behavioral measures were combined to form composite behavioral variables which quantify four major aspects of behavior: self- and environment-directed behavior, affiliation, aggression, and normal locomotor activity. Mean plasma fluphenazine levels at 48 h post-injection were 0.13 (+/- 0.03) ng/ml for injections 3-8 and 0.24 (+/- 0.07) ng/ml for injections 11-16. The pre-study null hypothesis that the four major aspects of behavior would not be adversely affected by this treatment during the drug-discontinuation phase of the study (weeks 73-108) was not statistically negated. There were highly significant decreases in self- and environment-directed behaviors and affiliation during the treatment periods, implying that treatment may contribute to the negative symptoms of treated schizophrenics. Stress reduced the above effects. Aggression showed some increase during early drug discontinuation, accentuated by stress. Recovery of normal (baseline) behavioral scores began by week 7 after the last treatment. Mild (bucco-lingual) tardive dyskinesias persisted in 30% of the animals for a prolonged time.

Using ordinal logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of colorectal neoplasia

The utility of ordinal logistic regression in the prediction of colorectal neoplasia was demonstrated in a group of 461 consecutive patients undergoing colonoscopy in a community practice. One hundred twenty-nine patients had adenomatous polyps and 34 had colorectal adenocarcinoma. An ordinal logistic regression model developed in a random subset (292 patients) identified five predictors of colorectal neoplasia. Colorectal neoplasia risk could be predicted using the patient's age, sex, hematocrit, fecal occult blood test result and indication for colonoscopy. The risk of colorectal neoplasia in the remaining subset of patients (169) could be reliably estimated from the model. Ordinal logistic regression analysis in this select group of patients can accurately estimate the likelihood of colorectal neoplasia. Because the generalizability of our findings are unknown, the model should not be applied to other patients. However, application of this technique to an unselected group of patients not already referred for colonoscopy could provide unbiased estimates of colorectal neoplasia risk in individual patients.

Changes in standard electrocardiographic ST-segment elevation predictive of successful reperfusion in acute myocardial infarction

The ability of the electrocardiographic ST segment to predict successful reperfusion after thrombolytic therapy remains controversial. To evaluate whether angiographically determined reperfusion could be predicted from changes in ST-segment elevation, the sum of ST-segment elevation in affected leads of the electrocardiogram was compared before and after thrombolytic therapy in 53 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Reperfusion status of the infarct-related artery was determined angiographically less than 8 hours from onset of symptoms. According to the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction trial (TIMI) criteria, 33 patients had successful reperfusion (TIMI grade 2 to 3 flow) after thrombolytic therapy and 20 patients did not (TIMI grade 0 to 1 flow). Logistic multiple regression analysis showed that the proportional value for the shift in the sum of ST elevation, termed the "% ST change," was more strongly associated with reperfusion than the absolute measured difference in millimeters (chi-square = 11.34 vs 9.22). The entire spectra of sensitivities and specificities were determined to identify a level of the percent ST change with simultaneous high sensitivity and specificity. A 20% decrease in ST elevation provided such a level (88% sensitivity, 80% specificity). The positive and negative predictive values of a 20% decrease in ST elevation were 88 and 80%, respectively. These results suggest that a decrease of only 20% in the sum of ST elevation in the standard electrocardiogram after thrombolytic therapy is a useful noninvasive predictor of reperfusion status in patients with evolving AMI.

Prognostic value of radionuclide angiography in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. A comparison with clinical and catheterization variables

To evaluate the usefulness of multiple measures from rest and exercise radionuclide angiography (RNA) in predicting cardiovascular death and cardiovascular events (death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) and to assess the prognostic usefulness of the RNA relative to clinical and catheterization data, we studied 571 stable patients with symptomatic coronary artery disease who had upright rest/exercise first-pass RNA within 3 months of catheterization and were medically treated. With a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 90 patients have died from cardiovascular causes, and 147 patients have either died or suffered a nonfatal myocardial infarction. Using the Cox regression model and a preselected group of RNA variables, the most important RNA predictor of mortality was exercise ejection fraction (chi 2 = 81, p less than 0.00001). Neither rest ejection fraction nor the change in ejection fraction from rest to exercise contributed additional predictive information. Two other RNA study variables, the change in heart rate from rest to exercise and rest end-diastolic volume index, did contribute additional prognostic information to the exercise ejection fraction (chi 2 = 23, p less than 0.0001). Compared with noninvasive clinical data (history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and chest radiograph), RNA variables were considerably more predictive of mortality (chi 2 = 71 [clinical variables] versus chi 2 = 104 [RNA]). Remarkably, the strength of the relation of RNA variables with mortality was equivalent to that of the set of catheterization variables previously demonstrated in our large angiographic population to be prognostically important (chi 2 = 104 [RNA] versus chi 2 = 102 [catheterization variables]). The RNA contained 84% of the information provided by clinical and catheterization descriptors combined. Furthermore, the RNA contributed significant additional prognostic information to the clinical and catheterization data (chi 2 = 13.6, p = 0.0035). For cardiovascular events, the relative prognostic usefulness of the RNA was similar, although relations with this outcome were generally weaker. Descriptors from the rest/exercise RNA exhibit a powerful relation with long-term outcomes and can be useful in defining risk, even when clinical and catheterization data are available.