Demographic characteristics of the Lambwe Valley population

Thirty-four per cent of the population (11,079) in the Lambwe Valley study site was under the age of 10, and 59% were under the age of 20. The population was equally divided among males and females (M/F 0.99). The crude birth rate averaged 45%; the death rate was 8% and the natural increase averaged 37%. Infant and child mortality was 66% and 108% respectively. The average household size was 8.4 individuals. The population migrated to the Lambwe Valley primarily from other areas in Kenya, although 13% were from Tanzania. The predominant tribal group was Luo (59%) followed by the Abasuba (38%). A few Luyha and Kisii were also encountered. Population increased by 3.5-fold in the 1960s, followed by a 2.5-fold increase in the 1970s. Due to an aerial spray tsetse control programme, sleeping sickness had a low prevalence in October 1981 (one of 5749). Of 339 individuals confirmed as sleeping sickness patients by hospital records from within the study site 320 (94.3%) were traced to their homes. Mortality in domestic cattle (40%), goats (47%), sheep (55%), and dogs (50%) had occurred over the previous two years during an outbreak of trypanosomiasis.

Aspects of the lognormal function in the analysis of regional population distribution

"The spatial structure of population within a metropolitan-area-based region is approached via the population density function, in much the same way as has been undertaken for a city or metropolitan area.... The concern in the balance of the paper is with certain properties lognormal form.... Consideration is given first to properties based on density. The population form of the lognormal function is then derived, and properties based on population are examined. Attention is also given to relationships among density-based and population-based properties." The approach is illustrated using data for London, England, for the period 1971-1981.

Diminishing returns and Malthus's first essay on population: theory and application

"This paper argues that Malthus's famous geometrical and arithmetical ratios do not necessarily imply diminishing returns. That average product would not necessarily fall with increased population density is immaterial to the polemical purpose of the Essay on Population which is satisfied by demonstrating the necessity for a reduction of the population growth below its maximum potential. But I do not deny the presence of the diminishing returns principle in the first Essay. Indeed, here is found the origin of Malthus's later land-scarcity based growth model involving a declining path of real wages in consequence of a decelerating rate of growth of labour demand." The author also considers Malthus's analysis of the situation in Britain in 1798. (SUMMARY IN FRE)

An allometric analysis of the U.S. urban system: 1960-80

"In the present study the allometric equations for urban places in the [United States] are derived and interpreted. Data on the area and population size of the urbanized area (as defined in the U.S. Census) for 1960, 1970, and 1980 are fitted to the allometric equation. The data set for each of the three time periods is further disaggregated by population-size class (seven classes) and by region (nine regions in total). The results of the analysis are interpreted with reference to works of allometric growth in the biology and urban growth literature."

The optimal sex ratio for age-structured populations

A new nonlinear age-dependent model for age-structured sexual populations is introduced, based on two assumptions: (1) the birth function depends on the ages of the two parents; and (2) the death functions of the two sexes are composed of two types of additive terms depending on age and sex and on time evolution of population densities, respectively. Formal arguments are given that suggest that time-persistent age profiles may exist and that the intrinsic rate of growth for the two sexes is the same. If the ratio between the number of newborn females and the number of newborn males is equal to the square root of the ratio of the corresponding per capita birth rates, then the intrinsic rate of growth has an optimal value. The optimal sex ratio for the whole population is equal to the reciprocal value of the sex ratio at birth.

Lebensraum: paradoxically, population growth may eventually end wars

Population growth may progressively reduce 1 of the motives for making war. Namely, population growth threatens shortages of resources, and especially land. Impending shortages cause a search for ways to mitigate the shortages. The discoveries eventually produce greater availability of resources than if population growth and pressure on resources had never occurred. The argument runs as follows: 1) Rhetoric about resources scarcity induced by population density has often contributed to international conflict, even if economics has not been the main motive in making war. 2) In the pre-modern era, war to obtain land and other resources may sometimes have been an economically sound policy. 3) Politicians and others in industrially developed nations believe resources may still be a casus belli. 4) Land and other productive resources are no longer worth acquiring at the cost of war.

Population growth in the Jiangnan area in the Qing dynasty: an analysis

"It is the purpose of the present paper to conduct, by using genealogical data, a preliminary study on population growth in Jiangnan [China], an area which had the greatest population density according to official Qing census data." Data are for the period 1619-1870.

The Indonesian transmigration program in historical perspective

"The purpose of this paper is to look at what has been achieved by the transmigration program [in Indonesia], to examine the major problems that have arisen and to consider the present constraints which now cast some doubt upon the future of the program." A historical overview of government policies from 1905 to 1988 is provided, and problems of land supply, land use, and lack of funds are discussed. Data are from the 1961 and 1980 Indonesian censuses. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Modelling internal migration in Kenya: an econometric analysis with limited data

"In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities.... The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model."

Population growth and economic development in the very long run: a simulation model of three revolutions

The authors propose an economic model capable of simulating the 4 main historical stages of civilization: hunting, agricultural, industrial, and postindustrial. An output-maximizing society to respond to changes in factor endowments by switching technologies. Changes in factor proportions arise through population growth and capital accumulation. A slow rate of exogenous technical process is assumed. The model synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the effect of population growth on per capita output. Initially the capital-diluting effect of population growth dominates. As population density increases, however, and a threshold is reached, the Boserupian effect becomes crucial, and a technological revolution occurs. The cycle is thereafter repeated. After the second economic revolution, however, the Malthusian constraint dissolves permanently, as population growth can continue without being constrained by diminishing returns to labor. By synthesizing Malthusian and Boserupian notions, the model is able to capture the salient features of economic development in the very long run.