Sông Sài Gòn: Extreme Plastic Pollution Pathways in Riparian Waterways

Plastic pollution in waterways poses a significant global challenge, largely stemming from land-based sources and subsequently transported by rivers to marine environments. With a substantial percentage of marine plastic waste originating from land-based sources, comprehending the trajectory and temporal experience of single-use plastic bottles assumes paramount importance. This project designed, developed, and released a plastic pollution tracking device, coinciding with Vietnam's annual Plastic Awareness Month. By mapping the plastic tracker's journey through the Saigon River, this study generated high-fidelity data for comprehensive analysis and bolstered public awareness through regular updates on the Re-Think Plastics Vietnam website. The device, equipped with technologies such as drone flight controller, open-source software, embedded computing, and cellular networking effectively captured GPS position, track, and localized conditions experienced by the plastic bottle tracker on its journey. This amalgamation of data contributes to the understanding of plastic pollution behaviors and serves as a data set for future initiatives aimed at plastic prevention in the ecologically sensitive Mekong Delta. By illuminating the transportation of single-use plastic bottles in the riparian waterways of Ho Chi Minh City and beyond, this study plays a role in collective efforts to understand plastic pollution and preserve aquatic ecosystems. By deploying a GPS-enabled plastic tracker, this study provides novel, high-resolution empirical data on plastic transport in urban tidal systems. These findings contribute to improving waste interception strategies and informing environmental policies aimed at reducing plastic accumulation in critical retention zones.

Markov-modulated marked Poisson processes for modeling disease dynamics based on medical claims data

We explore Markov-modulated marked Poisson processes (MMMPPs) as a natural framework for modeling patients' disease dynamics over time based on medical claims data. In claims data, observations do not only occur at random points in time but are also informative, that is, driven by unobserved disease levels, as poor health conditions usually lead to more frequent interactions with the health care system. Therefore, we model the observation process as a Markov-modulated Poisson process, where the rate of health care interactions is governed by a continuous-time Markov chain. Its states serve as proxies for the patients' latent disease levels and further determine the distribution of additional data collected at each observation time, the so-called marks. Overall, MMMPPs jointly model observations and their informative time points by comprising two state-dependent processes: the observation process (corresponding to the event times) and the mark process (corresponding to event-specific information), which both depend on the underlying states. The approach is illustrated using claims data from patients diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by modeling their drug use and the interval lengths between consecutive physician consultations. The results indicate that MMMPPs are able to detect distinct patterns of health care utilization related to disease processes and reveal interindividual differences in the state-switching dynamics.

Time-series models for border inspection data

We propose a new modeling approach for inspection data that provides a more useful interpretation of the patterns of detections of invasive pests, using cargo inspection as a motivating example. Methods that are currently in use generally classify shipments according to their likelihood of carrying biosecurity risk material, given available historical and contextual data. Ideally, decisions regarding which cargo containers to inspect should be made in real time, and the models used should be able to focus efforts when the risk is higher. In this study, we propose a dynamic approach that treats the data as a time series in order to detect periods of high risk. A regulatory organization will respond differently to evidence of systematic problems than evidence of random problems, so testing for serial correlation is of major interest. We compare three models that account for various degrees of serial dependence within the data. First is the independence model where the prediction of the arrival of a risky shipment is made solely on the basis of contextual information. We also consider a Markov chain that allows dependence between successive observations, and a hidden Markov model that allows further dependence on past data. The predictive performance of the models is then evaluated using ROC and leakage curves. We illustrate this methodology on two sets of real inspection data.

Post-stroke upper limb recovery is correlated with dynamic resting-state network connectivity

Motor recovery is still limited for people with stroke especially those with greater functional impairments. In order to improve outcome, we need to understand more about the mechanisms underpinning recovery. Task-unbiased, blood flow-independent post-stroke neural activity can be acquired from resting brain electrophysiological recordings and offers substantial promise to investigate physiological mechanisms, but behaviourally relevant features of resting-state sensorimotor network dynamics have not yet been identified. Thirty-seven people with subcortical ischaemic stroke and unilateral hand paresis of any degree were longitudinally evaluated at 3 weeks (early subacute) and 12 weeks (late subacute) after stroke. Resting-state magnetoencephalography and clinical scores of motor function were recorded and compared with matched controls. Magnetoencephalography data were decomposed using a data-driven hidden Markov model into 10 time-varying resting-state networks. People with stroke showed statistically significantly improved Action Research Arm Test and Fugl-Meyer upper extremity scores between 3 weeks and 12 weeks after stroke (both P < 0.001). Hidden Markov model analysis revealed a primarily alpha-band ipsilesional resting-state sensorimotor network which had a significantly increased life-time (the average time elapsed between entering and exiting the network) and fractional occupancy (the occupied percentage among all networks) at 3 weeks after stroke when compared with controls. The life-time of the ipsilesional resting-state sensorimotor network positively correlated with concurrent motor scores in people with stroke who had not fully recovered. Specifically, this relationship was observed only in ipsilesional rather in contralesional sensorimotor network, default mode network or visual network. The ipsilesional sensorimotor network metrics were not significantly different from controls at 12 weeks after stroke. The increased recruitment of alpha-band ipsilesional resting-state sensorimotor network at subacute stroke served as functionally correlated biomarkers exclusively in people with stroke with not fully recovered hand paresis, plausibly reflecting functional motor recovery processes.

An Enhanced Hidden Markov Map Matching Model for Floating Car Data

The map matching (MM) model plays an important role in revising the locations of floating car data (FCD) on a digital map. However, most existing MM models have multiple shortcomings, such as a low matching accuracy for complex roads, long running times, an inability to take full advantage of historical FCD information, and challenges in maintaining the topological adjacency and obeying traffic rules. To address these issues, an enhanced hidden Markov map matching (EHMM) model is proposed by adopting explicit topological expressions, using historical FCD information and introducing traffic rules. The EHMM model was validated against areal ground dataset at various sampling intervals and compared with the spatial and temporal matching model and the ordinary hidden Markov matching model. The empirical results reveal that the matching accuracy of the EHMM model is significantly higher than that of the reference models regarding real FCD trajectories at medium and high sampling rates. The running time of the EHMM model was notably shorter than those of the reference models. The matching results of the EHMM model retained topological adjacency and complied with traffic regulations better than the reference models.

Place Recognition through Multiple LiDAR Scans Based on the Hidden Markov Model

Autonomous driving systems for unmanned ground vehicles (UGV) operating in enclosed environments strongly rely on LiDAR localization with a prior map. Precise initial pose estimation is critical during system startup or when tracking is lost, ensuring safe UGV operation. Existing LiDAR-based place recognition methods often suffer from reduced accuracy due to only matching descriptors from individual LiDAR keyframes. This paper proposes a multi-frame descriptor-matching approach based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) to address this issue. This method enhances the place recognition accuracy and robustness by leveraging information from multiple frames. Experimental results from the KITTI dataset demonstrate that the proposed method significantly enhances the place recognition performance compared with the scan context-based single-frame descriptor-matching approach, with an average performance improvement of 5.8% and with a maximum improvement of 15.3%.

Measuring Daily Activity Rhythms in Young Adults at Risk of Affective Instability Using Passively Collected Smartphone Data: Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Irregularities in circadian rhythms have been associated with adverse health outcomes. The regularity of rhythms can be quantified using passively collected smartphone data to provide clinically relevant biomarkers of routine.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop a metric to quantify the regularity of activity rhythms and explore the relationship between routine and mood, as well as demographic covariates, in an outpatient psychiatric cohort.

METHODS

Passively sensed smartphone data from a cohort of 38 young adults from the Penn or Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Lifespan Brain Institute and Outpatient Psychiatry Clinic at the University of Pennsylvania were fitted with 2-state continuous-time hidden Markov models representing active and resting states. The regularity of routine was modeled as the hour-of-the-day random effects on the probability of state transition (ie, the association between the hour-of-the-day and state membership). A regularity score, Activity Rhythm Metric, was calculated from the continuous-time hidden Markov models and regressed on clinical and demographic covariates.

RESULTS

Regular activity rhythms were associated with longer sleep durations (P=.009), older age (P=.001), and mood (P=.049).

CONCLUSIONS

Passively sensed Activity Rhythm Metrics are an alternative to existing metrics but do not require burdensome survey-based assessments. Low-burden, passively sensed metrics based on smartphone data are promising and scalable alternatives to traditional measurements.

Modulatory Neurotransmitter Genotypes Shape Dynamic Functional Connectome Reconfigurations

Dynamic reconfigurations of the functional connectome across different connectivity states are highly heritable, predictive of cognitive abilities, and linked to mental health. Despite their established heritability, the specific polymorphisms that shape connectome dynamics are largely unknown. Given the widespread regulatory impact of modulatory neurotransmitters on functional connectivity, we comprehensively investigated a large set of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of their receptors, metabolic enzymes, and transporters in 674 healthy adult subjects (347 females) from the Human Connectome Project. Preregistered modulatory neurotransmitter SNPs and dynamic connectome features entered a Stability Selection procedure with resampling. We found that specific subsets of these SNPs explain individual differences in temporal phenotypes of fMRI-derived connectome dynamics for which we previously established heritability. Specifically, noradrenergic polymorphisms explained Fractional Occupancy, i.e., the proportion of time spent in each connectome state, and cholinergic polymorphisms explained Transition Probability, i.e., the probability to transition between state pairs, respectively. This work identifies specific genetic effects on connectome dynamics via the regulatory impact of modulatory neurotransmitter systems. Our observations highlight the potential of dynamic connectome features as endophenotypes for neurotransmitter-focused precision psychiatry.

Underwater Acoustic Signal Detection Using Calibrated Hidden Markov Model with Multiple Measurements

It is important to find signals of interest (SOIs) when operating sonar systems. A threshold-based method is generally used for SOI detection. However, it induces a high false alarm rate at a low signal-to-noise ratio. On the other side, machine-learning-based detection is performed to obtain more reliable detection results using abundant training data, costing intensive time and labor. We propose a method with favorable detection performance by using a hidden Markov model (HMM) for sequential acoustic data, which requires no separate training data. Since the detection results from HMM are significantly affected by the random initial parameters of HMM, the genetic algorithm (GA) is adopted to reduce the sensitivity of the initial parameters. The tuned initial parameters from GA are used as a start point for the subsequent Baum-Welch algorithm updating the HMM parameters. Furthermore, multiple measurements from arrays are exploited both in determining the proper initial parameters with GA and updating the parameters with the Baum-Welch algorithm. In contrast to the standard random selection of the initial point with single measurement, a stable initial point setting by the GA ensures improved SOI detections with the Baum-Welch algorithm using the multiple measurements, which are demonstrated in passive and active acoustic data. Particularly, the proposed method shows the most confidential detection in finding weak elastic surface waves from target, compared to existing methods such as conventional HMM.

Inference of Locus-Specific Population Mixtures from Linked Genome-Wide Allele Frequencies

Admixture between populations and species is common in nature. Since the influx of new genetic material might be either facilitated or hindered by selection, variation in mixture proportions along the genome is expected in organisms undergoing recombination. Various graph-based models have been developed to better understand these evolutionary dynamics of population splits and mixtures. However, current models assume a single mixture rate for the entire genome and do not explicitly account for linkage. Here, we introduce TreeSwirl, a novel method for inferring branch lengths and locus-specific mixture proportions by using genome-wide allele frequency data, assuming that the admixture graph is known or has been inferred. TreeSwirl builds upon TreeMix that uses Gaussian processes to estimate the presence of gene flow between diverged populations. However, in contrast to TreeMix, our model infers locus-specific mixture proportions employing a hidden Markov model that accounts for linkage. Through simulated data, we demonstrate that TreeSwirl can accurately estimate locus-specific mixture proportions and handle complex demographic scenarios. It also outperforms related D- and f-statistics in terms of accuracy and sensitivity to detect introgressed loci.

Predicting nodal metastasis progression of oral tongue cancer using a hidden Markov model in MRI

Objectives

The presence of occult nodal metastases in patients with oral tongue squamous cell carcinomas (OTSCCs) has implications for treatment. More than 30% of patients will have occult nodal metastases, yet a considerable number of patients undergo unnecessary invasive neck dissection to confirm nodal status. In this work, we propose a probabilistic model for lymphatic metastatic spread that can quantify the risk of microscopic involvement at the lymph node level (LNL) given the location of macroscopic metastases and the tumor stage using the MRI method.

Materials and methods

A total of 108 patients of OTSCCs were included in the study. A hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to compute the probabilities of transitions between states over time based on MRI. Learning of the transition probabilities was performed via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and was based on a dataset of OTSCC patients for whom involvement of individual LNLs was reported.

Results

Our model found that the most common involvement was that of level I and level II, corresponding to a high probability of 𝑝b1 = 0.39 ± 0.05, 𝑝b2 = 0.53 ± 0.09; lymph node level I had metastasis, and the probability of metastasis in lymph node II was high (93.79%); lymph node level II had metastasis, and the probability of metastasis in lymph node III was small (7.88%). Lymph nodes progress faster in the early stage and slower in the late stage.

Conclusion

An HMM can produce an algorithm that is able to predict nodal metastasis evolution in patients with OTSCCs by analyzing the macroscopic metastases observed in the upstream levels, and tumor category.

Capturing crisis dynamics: a novel personalized approach using multilevel hidden Markov modeling

Background

Prevention of (suicidal) crisis starts with appreciating its dynamics. However, crisis is a complex multidimensional phenomenon and how it evolves over time is still poorly understood. This study aims to clarify crisis dynamics by clustering fluctuations in the interplay of cognitive, affective, and behavioral (CAB) crisis factors within persons over time into latent states.

Methods

To allow for fine grained information on CAB factors over a prolonged period of time, ecological momentary assessment data comprised of self-report questionnaires (3 × daily) on five CAB symptoms (self-control, negative affect, contact avoidance, contact desire and suicidal ideation) was collected in twenty-six patients (60 measurements per patient). Empirically-derived crisis states and personalized state dynamics were isolated utilizing multilevel hidden Markov models.

Results

In this proof-of-concept study, four distinct and ascending CAB-based crisis states were derived. At the sample level, remaining within the current CAB crisis state from one five-hour interval to the next was most likely, with staying likeliness decreasing with ascending states. When residing in CAB crisis state 2 or higher, it was least likely to transition back to CAB crisis state 1. However, large patient heterogeneity was observed both in the tendency to remain within a certain CAB crisis state and transitioning between crisis states.

Conclusion

The uncovered crisis states using multilevel HMM quantify and visualize the pattern of crisis trajectories at the patient individual level. The observed differences between patients underlines the need for future innovation in personalized crisis prevention, and statistical models that facilitate such a personalized approach.