Prognostic value of serum albumin levels in hospitalized adults with community-acquired pneumonia

The red blood cell distribution width to albumin ratio was a potential prognostic biomarker for acute respiratory failure: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The association between red blood cell distribution width (RDW) to albumin ratio (RAR) and prognosis in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) remains unclear. This retrospective cohort study aims to investigate this association.

METHODS

Clinical information of ARF patients was collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) version 2.0 database. The primary outcome was, in-hospital mortality and secondary outcomes included 28-day mortality, 60-day mortality, length of hospital stay, and length of ICU stay. Cox regression models and subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the relationship between RAR and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 4547 patients with acute respiratory failure were enrolled, with 2277 in the low ratio group (RAR < 4.83) and 2270 in the high ratio group (RAR > = 4.83). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated a significant difference in survival probability between the two groups. After adjusting for confounding factors, the Cox regression analysis showed that the high RAR ratio had a higher hazard ratio (HR) for in-hospital mortality (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.07-1.40; P = 0.003), as well as for 28-day mortality and 60-day mortality. Propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis further supported the finding that high RAR was an independent risk factor for ARF.

CONCLUSION

This study reveals that RAR is an independent risk factor for poor clinical prognosis in patients with ARF admitted to the ICU. Higher RAR levels were associated with increased in-hospital, 28-day and 60-day mortality rates.

Nomograms for Predicting High Hospitalization Costs and Prolonged Stay among Hospitalized Patients with pAECOPD

This study aimed to develop nomograms to predict high hospitalization costs and prolonged stays in hospitalized acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), also known as pAECOPD. A total of 635 patients with pAECOPD were included in this observational study and divided into training and testing sets. Variables were initially screened using univariate analysis, and then further selected using a backward stepwise regression. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to establish nomograms. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) in both the training and testing sets. Finally, the logistic regression analysis showed that elevated white blood cell count (WBC>10 × 109 cells/l), hypoalbuminemia, pulmonary encephalopathy, respiratory failure, diabetes, and respiratory intensive care unit (RICU) admissions were risk factors for predicting high hospitalization costs in pAECOPD patients. The AUC value was 0.756 (95% CI: 0.699-0.812) in the training set and 0.792 (95% CI: 0.718-0.867) in the testing set. The calibration plot and DCA curve indicated the model had good predictive performance. Furthermore, decreased total protein, pulmonary encephalopathy, reflux esophagitis, and RICU admissions were risk factors for predicting prolonged stays in pAECOPD patients. The AUC value was 0.629 (95% CI: 0.575-0.682) in the training set and 0.620 (95% CI: 0.539-0.701) in the testing set. The calibration plot and DCA curve indicated the model had good predictive performance. We developed and validated two nomograms for predicting high hospitalization costs and prolonged stay, respectively, among hospitalized patients with pAECOPD. This trial is registered with ChiCTR2000039959.

Identification of Time-Series Pattern Marker in Its Application to Mortality Analysis of Pneumonia Patients in Intensive Care Unit

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are a significant source of big data used to track health variables over time. The analysis of EHR data can uncover medical markers or risk factors, aiding in the diagnosis and monitoring of diseases. We introduce a novel method for identifying markers with various temporal trend patterns, including monotonic and fluctuating trends, using machine learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). By applying our method to pneumonia patients in the intensive care unit using the MIMIC-III dataset, we identified markers exhibiting both monotonic and fluctuating trends. Specifically, monotonic markers such as red cell distribution width, urea nitrogen, creatinine, calcium, morphine sulfate, bicarbonate, sodium, troponin T, albumin, and prothrombin time were more frequently observed in the mortality group compared to the recovery group throughout the 10-day period before discharge. Conversely, fluctuating trend markers such as dextrose in sterile water, polystyrene sulfonate, free calcium, and glucose were more frequently observed in the mortality group as the discharge date approached. Our study presents a method for detecting time-series pattern markers in EHR data that respond differently according to disease progression. These markers can contribute to monitoring disease progression and enable stage-specific treatment, thereby advancing precision medicine.

Risk factors and prediction model for mortality in HIV/Talaromyces marneffei co-infection: A retrospective cohort study

Background

This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with mortality among patients co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and Talaromyces marneffei (TM) in China, and develop a risk prediction model.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort analysis conducted from 2013 to 2024, comprehensive clinical data from 160 patients were analyzed using a logistic regression model to identify mortality predictors and construct a predictive model. An additional 36 patients constituted the validation cohort, which was specifically designed to evaluate the predictive value of the model. Model performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC).

Results

The overall mortality rate for hospitalized patients with HIV/TM co-infection was 17.35 %. The median age was 35.0 years, and 89.30 % were male. Additionally, 89.80 % of the patients reported fever and 87.76 % presented with lymphadenopathy. Key independent risk factors associated with mortality included age (odds ratio (OR): 1.103, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.033-1.178, P = 0.003), procalcitonin (PCT) levels (OR: 1.270, 95 % CI = 1.052-1.534, P = 0.013), and urea to albumin ratio (UAR) (OR: 1.491, 95 % CI = 1.175-1.892, P < 0.001). Advanced age, elevated PCT levels, and increased UAR were identified as independent risk factors of mortality. Furthermore, the mortality prediction probability combining age, PCT, and UAR exhibited a high predictive value in patients with HIV/TM co-infection. Additionally, the AUC showed a good discrimination ability in the validation group (AUC, 0.898).

Conclusions

Advanced age, elevated PCT levels, and increased UAR significantly determine mortality in patients with HIV/TM co-infection. These findings underscore the potential of using laboratory parameters as predictive indicators of mortality, facilitating the early identification of HIV/TM co-infection cases in clinical practice.

Association between alkaline phosphatase to albumin ratio and mortality among patients with sepsis

The alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio (APAR) is correlated to worse prognosis in coronary artery disease, cancer, and acute renal failure. However, the relationship between APAR and sepsis prognosis has received little research. The content of this research was to investigate the prognostic relationship between APAR and sepsis. And validate the stability of the correlation in 90-days and 1-year mortality. Retrospective cohort research was conducted basing MIMIC-IV database (version 2.0). The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (Cl) were computed using multivariate Cox regression analysis. In addition, plots of survival curves and subgroup analyzes were conducted. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were also used. 9741 participants were included in this investigation. The 90-days mortality was 32.8%, and the 1-year mortality was 42.0%. After controlling for confounders, the adjusted HRs (95% CI) for tertile 2 (2.2-3.8) and tertile 3 (> 3.8) were 1.37 (1.25-1.51) and 1.74 (1.58-1.91), respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed a higher probability of 90-days death in the higher APAR group. The area under the curve (AUC) of APAR was 0.674 and could reach 0.709 after combining the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS). This study demonstrates that APAR is significantly related to bad clinical outcomes in sepsis.

Usefulness of a predictive model to hospitalize patients with low-risk community-acquired pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

A high proportion of patients with low-risk community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) (classes I-III of the Pneumonia Severity Index) are hospitalized. The purpose of this study was to determine whether validated severity scales are used in clinical practice to make admission decisions, identify the variables that influence this decision, and evaluate the potential predictive value of these variables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prospective, observational study of patients ≥ 18 years of age with a diagnosis of low-risk CAP hospitalized or referred from the Emergency Department to outpatient consultations. A multivariate logistic regression predictive model was built to predict the decision to hospitalize a patient.

RESULTS

The study population was composed of 1,208 patients (806 inpatients and 402 outpatients). The severity of CAP was estimated in 250 patients (20.7%). The factors that determined hospitalization were "abnormal findings in complementary studies" (643/806: 79.8%; due to respiratory failure in 443 patients) and "signs of clinical deterioration" [64/806 (7.9%): hypotension (16/64, 25%); hemoptoic expectoration (12/64, 18.8%); tachypnea (10/64, 15.6%)]. In total, ambulatory management was not contraindicated in 24.7% of hospitalized patients (199). The predictive model built to decide about hospitalization had a good power of discrimination (AUC 0.876; 95%CI: 0.855-0.897).

CONCLUSIONS

Scales are rarely used to estimate the severity of CAP at the emergency department. The decision to hospitalize or not a patient largely depends on the clinical experience of the physician. Our predictive model showed a good power to discriminate the patients who required hospitalization. Further studies are warranted to validate these results.

Effect of hypoalbuminemia on mortality in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

Objectives

The impact of hypoalbuminemia on the short-term and long-term mortality of cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), both with and without renal function impairment, remains insufficiently elucidated based on population-based data.

Materials and Methods

We retrieved data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Database encompassing 14,583 hospitalized patients diagnosed with both cirrhosis and SBP during the period from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013. Prognostic factors influencing 30-day and 3-year survival were computed. Furthermore, the impact of hypoalbuminemia on the mortality rate among SBP patients, with or without concurrent renal function impairment, was also assessed.

Results

The 30-day mortality rates for patients with SBP, comparing those with hypoalbuminemia and those without, were 18.3% and 29.4%, respectively (P < 0.001). Similarly, the 3-year mortality rates for SBP patients with hypoalbuminemia and those without were 73.7% and 85.8%, respectively (P < 0.001). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, adjusted for patients' gender, age, and comorbid conditions, substantiated that individuals with hypoalbuminemia exhibit an inferior 30-day survival (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.51-1.74, P < 0.001) and reduced 3-year survival (HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.50-1.63, P < 0.001) in comparison to those lacking hypoalbuminemia. Among SBP patients with renal function impairment, those presenting hypoalbuminemia also experienced diminished 30-day survival (HR: 1.81, 95% CI 1.57-2.07, P < 0.001) as well as reduced 3-year survival (HR: 1.70, 95% CI 1.54-1.87, P < 0.001). Likewise, in SBP patients without renal function impairment, the presence of hypoalbuminemia was associated with poorer 30-day survival (HR: 1.54, 95% CI 1.42-1.67, P < 0.001) and 3-year survival (HR: 1.53, 95% CI 1.46-1.60, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Among cirrhotic patients with SBP, the presence of hypoalbuminemia predicts inferior short-term and long-term outcomes, regardless of renal function.

Preoperative Serum Albumin as Predictor of Outcomes After Thyroidectomy

Objective

Albumin is considered to be a surrogate marker for inflammation and nutritional status. Levels usually decrease after surgery but little is known about the predictive value of preoperative albumin levels in patients undergoing thyroidectomy. This study aimed to investigate the 30-day incidence of postoperative outcomes in thyroidectomy patients with and without preoperative hypoalbuminemia.

Study Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

TriNetX Database.

Methods

TriNetX, a federated deidentified database, was retrospectively queried to identify patients who underwent thyroidectomy. Postoperative outcomes within 30 days of thyroidectomy, based on International Classification of Disease, 10th Revision and Current Procedural Terminology codes, in patients with preoperative hypoalbuminemia (≤3.4 g/dL) (cohort 1) were analyzed and compared to patients without hypoalbuminemia (cohort 2).

Results

After propensity score matching, 2398 patients were identified in each cohort. Hypoalbuminemia patients were more likely to have postoperative pneumonia (odds ratio, OR: 3.472, 95% confidence interval, CI [2.016-5.978]), acute renal failure (OR: 3.872, 95% CI [2.412-6.217]), venous thromboembolism (OR: 1.766, 95% CI [1.016-2.819]), and surgical site infection (OR: 2.353, 95% CI [1.282-4.32]). Rates of recurrent laryngeal nerve injury were comparable between cohorts.

Conclusion

Patients undergoing thyroidectomy with preoperative hypoalbuminemia have a higher prevalence of postoperative complications compared to patients without preoperative hypoalbuminemia. While not routinely assessed, preoperative evaluation of serum albumin levels may help guide expectations and optimal management of thyroidectomy patients.

The Clinical Utility of Albumin with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in Improving 30-Day Mortality Prediction in Patients with Infection in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is currently the primary prognostic tool used in patients with infections to predict sepsis and mortality, although its predictive role remains debated. Serum albumin values have been recently found to correlate with the severity of sepsis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the clinical usefulness of albumin dosage on SOFA score prediction in infected patients.

METHODS

This prospective single-centre observational study was performed in 2021. We used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) technique to evaluate the additional prognostic value of serum albumin used together with the SOFA score in infected patients. The discriminatory abilities of the SOFA score alone, of albumin levels alone, and of the albumin levels together with (but not incorporated into) the SOFA score was evaluated by comparing the area under the curve of the corresponding receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

We included 949 patients with an infectious status; 8.9% (84/949) died within 30 days of ED admission. The AUROC for the SOFA score was 0.802 (95% CI: 0.756-0.849) and the albumin level was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.775-0.852). The NRI found that serum albumin improved SOFA score predictions of 30-day mortality by 24.3% (p < 0.001), yielding an AUROC of 0.881 (95% CI: 0.848-0.912; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Using serum albumin values together with the SOFA score can improve prognostic prediction in patients with infections evaluated in the ED.

Serum Albumin Levels: A Biomarker to Be Repurposed in Different Disease Settings in Clinical Practice

Serum albumin (ALB), one of the most important proteins in human physiology, has the main functions of maintaining plasma oncotic pressure and plasma volume, transporting hormones, vitamins, oligominerals and drugs, and exerting a powerful antioxidant-anti-inflammatory role. Its prognostic value in liver and malabsorption syndromes is well known. In this narrative review, an analysis of the most important studies evaluating the prognostic significance of low serum ALB levels in hospitalized patients was performed. Specifically, the risk in emergency medicine, cardiovascular diseases, Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) infection, nephrology, oncology, and autoimmune rheumatic diseases has been examined to fully explore its clinical value. ALB is a negative acute-phase reactant and the reduction in its serum levels represents a threatening parameter for long-term survival in several clinical settings, and a strong biomarker for a poor prognosis in most diseases. Therefore, clinicians should consider serum ALB as a valuable tool to assess the efficacy of specific therapies, both in hospitalized patients and in chronic follow-up.

Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Severe Pneumocystis carinii Pneumonia after Kidney Transplantation: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to formulate and validate a prognostic model for postoperative severe Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (SPCP) in kidney transplant recipients utilizing machine learning algorithms, and to compare the performance of various models.

METHODS

Clinical manifestations and laboratory test results upon admission were gathered as variables for 88 patients who experienced PCP following kidney transplantation. The most discriminative variables were identified, and subsequently, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) models were constructed. Finally, the models' predictive capabilities were assessed through ROC curves, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and F1-scores. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm was employed to elucidate the contributions of the most effective model's variables.

RESULTS

Through lasso regression, five features-hemoglobin (Hb), Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), progressive dyspnea, and Albumin (ALB)-were identified, and six machine learning models were developed using these variables after evaluating their correlation and multicollinearity. In the validation cohort, the RF model demonstrated the highest AUC (0.920 (0.810-1.000), F1-Score (0.8), accuracy (0.885), sensitivity (0.818), PPV (0.667), and NPV (0.913) among the six models, while the XGB and KNN models exhibited the highest specificity (0.909) among the six models. Notably, CRP exerted a significant influence on the models, as revealed by SHAP and feature importance rankings.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning algorithms offer a viable approach for constructing prognostic models to predict the development of severe disease following PCP in kidney transplant recipients, with potential practical applications.

Evaluation of Albumin, Transferrin and Transthyretin in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients as Disease Activity and Nutritional Status Biomarkers

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), which includes Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), is often accompanied by malnutrition that manifests itself as nutrient deficiencies and body mass loss or deficit. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the utility of albumin, transferrin and transthyretin levels in the assessment of nutritional status and IBD activity. The case-control study included 82 IBD patients. The serum concentrations of albumin, transferrin and transthyretine were determined by a quantitative sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Significantly lower median concentrations of albumin were found in the IBD patients vs. controls and in CD patients compared to the UC patients. Significantly higher median transthyretin concentrations were found in the IBD patients compared to the healthy subjects. There were no significant differences in median transferrin concentrations between the IBD patients and the healthy subjects. Significantly higher albumin levels were found in IBD patients in remission compared to patients with moderate and severe exacerbation of IBD symptoms. There were no significant differences in the median transferrin or transthyretin levels in patients with IBD depending on disease activity. No differences were identified in the median transferrin or transthyretin levels in the IBD patients according to nutritional status. The median albumin concentrations in the IBD subjects were significantly higher in patients with normal body fat, normal BMI and normal waist circumferences compared to those with an abnormal nutritional status. The albumin levels reflect both nutritional status and disease activity and therefore cannot be considered a prognostic marker of malnutrition in IBD. As regards the utility of transferrin and transthyretin as markers of activity and nutritional status in IBD patients, further studies are required.

Revisiting PINI Scoring in Light of Recent Biological Advances

The prognostic inflammatory and nutritional index (PINI) is a simple scoring formula allowing the follow-up of dietary protein restriction and infectious complications affecting critically ill patients hospitalized in medical and surgical wards. The World Health organization (WHO) has recently recommended using the binary CRP (C-reactive protein) and AGP (α1-acid glycoprotein) numerators of the PINI formula in underprivileged inhabitants of developing countries to evaluate their (sub)clinical infectious states making their chronic malnutrition worse. These studies, mainly located in Africa and Asia, demonstrate that children and women enduring the combined effects of infectious burden and (micro)nutrient deprivation (principally retinol and iron) usually manifest persistent refractoriness and slackened recovery throughout dietary rehabilitation. The additive measurement of ALB (albumin) and TTR (transthyretin) composing the denominator of the PINI formula is shown to be helpful in grading the downsizing of lean body mass (LBM), a cornerstone of bodybuilding. The confrontation of these four objective parameters thus allows the quantification of the respective importance of nutritional and inflammatory components of any disease process, taking into account that TTR is the sole plasma protein remaining highly correlated to the fluctuations of LBM. The below review highlights the prevailing roles played by protein nutritional states in the release of plasma retinol to target tissues and to the restoration of iron-deficient anemias.

Intensive care unit-acquired pneumonia caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae in China: Risk factors and prediction model of mortality

Intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired pneumonia (ICUAP) is a major concern owing to its associated high mortality rate. Few studies have focused on ICUAP caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae (KP). This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for ICUAP-associated death due to KP and to develop a mortality prediction model. Patients with KP-associated ICUAP at Renji Hospital were enrolled from January 2012 to December 2017. The patients were registered from the ICU units of the Surgery, Gynecology and Obstetrics, Neurosurgery, Emergency and Geriatric Departments, and were followed for 30 days. A multivariate analysis was performed to analyze the differences between 30-day survivors and nonsurvivors, and to determine the independent risk factors. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were also used to determine the predictive power of the model. Among the 285 patients with KP-associated ICUAP, the median age was 70.55 years, and 61.6% were men. Fifty patients died. The nonsurvivors had a lower Glasgow coma score (GCS), platelet count, and albumin concentrations, but higher lactate concentrations, than the survivors. The nonsurvivors were also more likely to be admitted to the ICU for respiratory failure and surgery, and they received less appropriate empirical antimicrobial therapy than the survivors. A lower GCS (odds ratio [OR] = 0.836, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.770-0.907), lower albumin concentrations (OR = 0.836, 95% CI: 0.770-0.907), higher lactate concentrations (OR = 1.167, 95% CI: 1.0013-1.344) and inappropriate empirical treatment (OR = 2.559, 95% CI: 1.080-6.065) were independent risk factors for mortality in patients with KP-associated ICUAP. ROC curve analysis showed that the risk of death was higher in patients with 2 or more independent risk factors. The predictive model was effective, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.823 (95% CI: 0.773-0.865). The number of independent risk factors is positively correlated with the risk of death. Our model shows excellent predictive performance.

A new predictive tool consolidating CURB-65 with procalcitonin and albumin to assess short-term mortality in hospitalized elderly patients with infectious disease: A retrospective study of a patient cohort

BACKGROUND

Hospitalized elderly patients are often at risk of life-threatening infectious diseases such as pneumonia and urinary tract infection, thus diagnostic tools for bacterial infections are demanded. We developed a new predictive tool consolidating modified CURB-65, procalcitonin (PCT) and albumin (Alb).

METHOD

This is a retrospective study. Modified CURB-65 (mCURB-65) score, PCT, Alb, and various cardiovascular/respiratory/renal functions were measured. Survival analyses were conducted to assess 30-days mortality of elderly patients using mCURB-65 score, PCT and Alb. The consolidated scores were compared with the number of patients died.

RESULTS

There were 445 elderly patients included. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed significant differences between the high and low groups of mCURB-65, PCT and Alb (log-rank test, P < .001). Cox proportional regression showed that the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for high mCURB-65, high Alb, and high PCT were all significant, 1.95 (1.24-3.05), 0.50 (0.32-0.77), and 2.09 (1.32-3.31), respectively. The consolidated scores showed tendency of increase with proportion of the number of patients died.

CONCLUSIONS

The consolidated score consisted of mCURB-65, PCT and Alb can be a useful tool to predict short-term mortality of the hospitalized elderly patients with infectious disease.

Protein C activity as a potential prognostic factor for nursing home-acquired pneumonia

Introduction

Despite the poor prognosis for nursing home acquired pneumonia (NHAP), a useful prognostic factor is lacking. We evaluated protein C (PC) activity as a predictor of in-hospital death in patients with NHAP and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

Methods

This prospective, observational study included all patients hospitalized with pneumonia between July 2007 and December 2012 in a single hospital. We measured PC activity at admission and investigated whether it was different between survivors and non-survivors. We also examined whether PC activity < 55% was a predictor for in-hospital death of pneumonia by logistic regression analysis with CURB-65 items (confusion, blood urea >20 mg/dL, respiratory rate >30/min, and blood pressure <90/60 mmHg, age >65). When it was a useful prognostic factor for pneumonia, we combined PC activity with the existing prognostic scores, the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65, and analyzed its additional effect by comparing the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the modified and original scores.

Results

Participants comprised 75 NHAP and 315 CAP patients. PC activity was lower among non-survivors than among survivors in NHAP and all-pneumonia (CAP+NHAP). PC activity <55% was a useful prognostic predictor for NHAP (Odds ratio 7.39 (95% CI; 1.59–34.38), and when PSI or CURB-65 was combined with PC activity, the AUC improved (from 0.712 to 0.820 for PSI, and 0.657 to 0.734 for CURB-65).

Conclusions

PC activity was useful for predicting in-hospital death of pneumonia, especially in NHAP, and became more useful when combined with the PSI or CURB-65.

Early predictors of lung necrosis severity in children with community-acquired necrotizing pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

To analyze baseline clinical and laboratory characteristics and explore the possible predictors of lung necrosis severity in children with community-acquired necrotizing pneumonia (NP).

METHODOLOGY

This retrospective observational study was performed in a tertiary referral center. A total of 104 patients aged <15 years with community-acquired pneumonia and radiologically confirmed NP by computed tomography (CT) were included. Patients were classified into the mild, moderate, or massive necrosis groups.

RESULTS

Among them, 29, 41, and 34 patients had mild, moderate, and massive necrosis, respectively. Moreover, 34.6% of the patients were admitted to pediatric intensive care unit. Massive necrosis was more likely to occur during winter (p < 0.05) and was associated with more severe clinical outcomes, such as longer duration of fever, longer hospitalization, increased mortality, and a higher risk of subsequent surgical intervention (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the following were independent risk factors for massive necrosis in this study: C-reactive protein (CRP) (p = 0.036), serum albumin (p = 0.009), and immunoglobulin M (IgM) (p = 0.022). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that when the cut-off value for CRP, serum albumin, and IgM were set at 122 mg/L, 30.8 g/L, and 95.7 mg/dl, respectively, they showed good diagnostic performance for differentiating patients with massive necrosis from all patients with NP.

CONCLUSION

NP is a potentially severe complication of pediatric community-acquired pneumonia. Different severities of lung necrosis can lead to different clinical outcomes. CRP, serum albumin, and IgM levels are independent predictors of the degree of lung necrosis.

U-shaped association between serum albumin and pediatric intensive care unit mortality in critically ill children

Introduction

The detailed association between albumin levels and mortality has not been studied in critically ill children. The aim of this study was to reveal an association between albumin levels in detail and mortality in critically ill children.

Materials and methods

We retrospectively collected data from children admitted to four pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in China between January 2015 and October 2020. Restricted cubic spline curves based on logistic regression models were generated to evaluate the detailed associations between serum albumin levels and PICU mortality. Threshold effect analysis was performed using two piecewise regression models.

Results

The study included 9,123 children. The overall mortality was 5.3%. The detailed association between serum albumin levels and the risk of mortality followed a U-shape. The risk of mortality decreased with increasing serum albumin levels (OR = 0.919; 95% CI: 0.886, 0.954) in children with serum albumin levels < 43.2 g/L and increased with increasing serum albumin levels (OR = 1.174; 95% CI: 1.044, 1.316) in children with serum albumin levels ≥ 43.2 g/L.

Conclusion

There was a U-shaped association between serum albumin levels and mortality in critically ill children in the PICU.

Association of Serum Albumin and Copeptin with Early Clinical Deterioration and Instability in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background: There is a paucity of data on biomarkers for the early deterioration and clinical instability of patients in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), as treatment failure occurs in the first seven days in 90% of patients. Aim: To evaluate serum albumin and copeptin with CURB-65, PSI scoring and ATS/IDSA minor criteria for the prediction of early mortality or ICU-admission (7 days) and clinical instability after 72 h. Methods: In 100 consecutive hospitalized adult CAP patients, PSI-scores, CURB-65 scores, ATS/IDSA 2007 minor criteria, copeptin and albumin on admission were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission. Predictive powers of albumin and copeptin were tested with ROC curves and ICU-free survival probability was tested using Kaplan−Meier analysis. Results: Albumin was lower and copeptin higher in patients with short-term adverse outcomes (p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that albumin [HR (95% CI): 0.41 (0.18−0.94, p = 0.034)] and copeptin [HR (95% CI): 1.94 (1.03−3.67, p = 0.042)] were independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission (7 days). The Kaplan−Meier analysis observed that high copeptin (>27.12 ng/mL) and low albumin levels (<2.85 g/dL) had a lower (p < 0.001) survival probability. The diagnostic accuracy of albumin was better than copeptin. The inclusion of albumin and copeptin into ATS/IDSA minor criteria significantly improved their predictive power. Conclusions: Both biomarkers serum albumin and copeptin can predict early deterioration and clinical instability in hospitalized CAP patients and increase the prognostic power of the traditional clinical scoring systems.

Clinical Manifestations and Outcomes of Renal Transplantation Patients With Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia and Cytomegalovirus Co-infection

Background

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection are common opportunistic infections among renal transplantation (RT) recipients, and both can increase the risk of graft loss and patient mortality after RT. However, few studies had evaluated PJP and CMV co-infection, especially among RT patients. Therefore, this study was performed to evaluate the impact of CMV co-infection with PJP among RT recipients.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with confirmed diagnosis of PJP between 2015 and 2021 in our hospital. We divided patients into PJP and PJP+CMV groups according to their CMV infection status, and the clinical severity and outcomes of the two groups were evaluated.

Results

A total of 80 patients after RT were diagnosed with PJP. Of these, 37 (46.2%) patients had co-existing CMV viremia. There were no statistically significant intergroup differences in age, sex, diabetes, onset time of PJP after RT and postoperative immunosuppressant. Compared to serum creatinine (Cr) at admission, the serum Cr at discharge in both the PJP and PJP+CMV groups were decreased. The PJP+CMV group had a higher C-reactive protein level, higher procalcitonin level, and lower albumin level than the PJP group. The PJP+CMV group showed a higher PSI score than the PJP group. Moreover, the initial absorption time of the lesion was longer in the PJP+CMV group. However, the duration of hospitalization showed no significant differences between the two groups. The mortality rate was 9.4-times higher in the PJP+CMV group than in the PJP group. The rate of admittance to the intensive care unit was 3.2-times higher in the PJP+CMV group than in the PJP group.

Conclusion

CMV co-infection may result in more serious inflammatory response. RT patients with PJP+CMV infection had more severe clinical symptoms, slower recovery from pneumonia, and higher mortality than those with PJP alone. Therefore, when RT patients present with severe PJP, the possibility of CMV co-infection should be considered. Short-term withdrawal of immunosuppressants in case of severe infection is safe for the renal function of RT patients.

Albumin levels predict mortality in sepsis patients with acute kidney injury undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy: a secondary analysis based on a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Albumin (ALB) levels are negatively associated with mortality in patients with sepsis. However, among sepsis patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), there has been no similar study on the correlation between ALB levels and mortality alone. This study tested the hypothesis that ALB levels are negatively associated with mortality among such patients.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of 794 septic patients who were diagnosed with AKI and underwent CRRT in South Korea. For the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards models were used to study the hypotheses, with adjustments for the pertinent covariables. We also explore the possible nonlinear relationship and conducted sensitivity analyses including subgroup analyses and tests for interactions to investigate the association further. Additionally, ALB was used to construct model and we then compared the performance of ALB with that of APACHE II and SOFA in predicting mortality.

RESULTS

The ALB level was an independent prognostic factor for death at 28 and 90 days after CRRT initiation (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62-0.90, P = 0.0024 for death at 28 days and HR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.63-0.86, P < 0.0001 for death at 90 days). A nonlinear association was not identified between ALB levels and the endpoints. Subgroup analyses and tests for interactions indicated that HCO₃ and CRP played an interactive role in the association. ROC analysis indicated ALB, SOFA and APACHE-II were separately inadequate for clinical applications.

CONCLUSION

A 1 g/dL increase in ALB levels was independently associated with a 25 and 27% decrease in the risk of death at 28 and 90 days, respectively. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with caution as this study has several limitations.

Age, Pulse, Urea, and Albumin Score: A Tool for Predicting the Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes of Community-Acquired Pneumonia Patients With Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The predictive performances of CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index (PSI) were poor in patients with diabetes. This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting the short-term and long-term outcomes of CAP in patients with diabetes.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on 531 CAP patients with type 2 diabetes. The short-term outcome was in-hospital mortality. The long-term outcome was 24-month all-cause death. The APUA score was calculated according to the levels of Age (0-2 points), Pulse (0-2 points), Urea (0-2 points), and Albumin (0-4 points). The area under curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the abilities of the APUA score for predicting short-term outcomes. Cox regression models were used for modeling relationships between the APUA score and 24-month mortality.

RESULTS

The AUC of the APUA score for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.807 in patients with type 2 diabetes (P<0.001). The AUC of the APUA score was higher than the AUCs of CURB-65 and PSI class (P<0.05). The long-term mortality increased with the risk stratification of the APUA score (low-risk group (0-1 points) 11.5%, intermediate risk group (2-4 points) 16.9%, high risk group (≥5 points) 28.8%, P<0.05). Compared with patients in the low-risk group, patients in the high-risk group had significantly increased risk of long-term death, HR (95%CI) was 2.093 (1.041~4.208, P=0.038).

CONCLUSION

The APUA score is a simple and accurate tool for predicting short-term and long-term outcomes of CAP patients with diabetes.

Usefulness of Random Forest Algorithm in Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to develop an interpretable random forest model for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

Clinical and laboratory data of 648 patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively reviewed and randomly assigned to the training set and test set in a 3:1 ratio. Univariate analysis was used to select candidate predictors for the SAP. Random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) models were developed on the training sample. The prediction models were then applied to the test sample. The performance of the risk models was measured by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) and area under precision recall curve. We provide visualized interpretation by using local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME).

RESULTS

The LR model was developed to predict SAP as the following function: -1.10-0.13×albumin (g/L) + 0.016 × serum creatinine (μmol/L) + 0.14 × glucose (mmol/L) + 1.63 × pleural effusion (0/1)(No/Yes). The coefficients of this formula were utilized to build a nomogram. The RF model consists of 16 variables identified by univariate analysis. It was developed and validated by a tenfold cross-validation on the training sample. Variables importance analysis suggested that blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, albumin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, calcium, and glucose were the most important seven predictors of SAP. The AUCs of RF model in tenfold cross-validation of the training set and the test set was 0.89 and 0.96, respectively. Both the area under precision recall curve and the diagnostic accuracy of the RF model were higher than that of both the LR model and the BISAP score. LIME plots were used to explain individualized prediction of the RF model.

CONCLUSIONS

An interpretable RF model exhibited the highest discriminatory performance in predicting SAP. Interpretation with LIME plots could be useful for individualized prediction in a clinical setting. A nomogram consisting of albumin, serum creatinine, glucose, and pleural effusion was useful for prediction of SAP.

Development and validation of a new scoring system for prognostic prediction of community-acquired pneumonia in older adults

The discriminative power of CURB-65 for mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is suspected to decrease with age. However, a useful prognostic prediction model for older patients with CAP has not been established. This study aimed to develop and validate a new scoring system for predicting mortality in older patients with CAP. We recruited two prospective cohorts including patients aged ≥ 65 years and hospitalized with CAP. In the derivation (n = 872) and validation cohorts (n = 1,158), the average age was 82.0 and 80.6 years and the 30-day mortality rate was 7.6% (n = 66) and 7.4% (n = 86), respectively. A new scoring system was developed based on factors associated with 30-day mortality, identified by multivariate analysis in the derivation cohort. This scoring system named CHUBA comprised five variables: confusion, hypoxemia (SpO₂ ≤ 90% or PaO₂ ≤ 60 mmHg), blood urea nitrogen ≥ 30 mg/dL, bedridden state, and serum albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL. With regard to 30-day mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for CURB-65 and CHUBA was 0.672 (95% confidence interval, 0.607–0.732) and 0.809 (95% confidence interval, 0.751–0.856; P < 0.001), respectively. The effectiveness of CHUBA was statistically confirmed in the external validation cohort. In conclusion, a simpler novel scoring system, CHUBA, was established for predicting mortality in older patients with CAP.

Prognostic factors in patients hospitalized with community-acquired aspiration pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

Patients with aspiration pneumonia (AP) exhibit higher mortality than those with non-AP. However, data regarding predictors of short-term prognosis in patients with community-acquired AP are limited.

METHODS

Patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) were retrospectively classified into aspiration pneumonia (AP) and non-AP groups. The AP patients were further divided into nonsurvivors and survivors by 30-day mortality, and various clinical variables were compared between the groups.

RESULTS

Of 1249 CAP patients, 254 (20.3%) were classified into the AP group, of whom 76 patients (29.9%) died within 30 days. CURB-65, pneumonia severity index (PSI), and Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society criteria for severe CAP (SCAP) showed only modest prognostic performance for the prediction of 30-day mortality (c-statistics, 0.635, 0.647, and 0.681, respectively). Along with the PSI and SCAP, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS) and blood biomarkers, including, N-terminal of prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and albumin, were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. In models based on clinical prediction rules, including CURB-65, PSI, and SCAP, the addition of ECOG-PS further improved their c-statistics compared to the clinical prediction rules alone. In the four combinations based on SCAP, ECOG-PS, and two blood biomarkers (NT-proBNP and albumin), the c-statistics further increased to reach approximately 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

CURB-65, PSI, and SCAP exhibited only modest discriminatory power in predicting the 30-day mortality of patients with community-acquired AP. The addition of performance status and blood biomarkers, including NT-proBNP and albumin, further increased prognostic performance, showing good predictive accuracy in the SCAP-based model.

CURB-65 plus hypoalbuminemia: a new score system for prediction of the in-hospital mortality risk in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

There is the need of a simple but highly reliable score system for stratifying the risk of mortality and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) transfer in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia at the Emergency Room.

PURPOSE

In this study, the ability of CURB-65, extended CURB-65, PSI and CALL scores and C-Reactive Protein (CRP) to predict intra-hospital mortality and ICU admission in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia were evaluated.

METHODS

During March-May 2020, a retrospective, single-center study including all consecutive adult patients with diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia was conducted. Clinical, laboratory and radiological data as well as CURB-65, expanded CURB-65, PSI and CALL scores were calculated based on data recorded at hospital admission.

RESULTS

Overall, 224 patients with documented SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia were included in the study. As for intrahospital mortality (24/224, 11%), PSI performed better than all the other tested scores, which showed lower AUC values (AUC=0.890 for PSI versus AUC=0.885, AUC=0.858 and AUC=0.743 for expanded CURB-65, CURB-65 and CALL scores, respectively). Of note, the addition of hypoalbuminemia to the CURB-65 score increased the prediction value of intra-hospital mortality (AUC=0.905). All the tested scores were less predictive for the need of ICU transfer (26/224, 12%), with the best AUC for extended CURB-65 score (AUC= 0.708).

CONCLUSION

The addition of albumin level to the easy-to-calculate CURB-65 score at hospital admission is able to improve the quality of prediction of intra-hospital mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

A Scoring System for Predicting the Prognosis of Late-Onset Severe Pneumonia after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Late-onset severe pneumonia (LOSP) is defined as severe pneumonia developing during the late phase of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Because of the high mortality in patients with LOSP, it is important to identify prognostic factors. In this study, we aimed to develop a risk score system with broad applicability that can help predict the risk of LOSP-associated mortality. We retrospectively analyzed 100 patients with LOSP after allo-HSCT between June 2009 and July 2017. The assessment variables included immune, nutritional, and metabolic parameters at the onset of LOSP. Of these 100 patients, 45 (45%) eventually died, and 55 (55%) were positive for organisms, most commonly viruses. In the multivariate analysis, higher monocyte count (≥0.20 × 10⁹/L versus <0.20 × 10⁹/L; P = .001), higher albumin level (≥30.5 g/L versus <30.5 g/L; P = .044), lower lactic dehydrogenase level (<250 U/L versus ≥250 U/L; P = .008) and lower blood urea nitrogen concentration (<7.2 mmol/L versus ≥7.2 mmol/L; P = .026) at the onset of LOSP were significantly associated with better 60-day survival. A risk score system based on the foregoing results showed that the probability of 60-day survival decreased with increasing risk factors, from 96.3% in the low-risk group to 49.1% in the intermediate-risk group and 12.5% in the high-risk group. Our results indicate that this scoring system using 4 variables can stratify patients with different probabilities of survival after LOSP, which suggests that patients' immune, nutritional, and metabolic status are crucial factors in determining outcome.

Controlling Nutritional Status score: A novel prognostic marker for patients with community-acquired pneumonia

Objective:

We aimed to investigate the prevalence and prognostic value of malnutrition assessed by Controlling Nutritional Status score in community-acquired pneumonia patients.

Methods:

All adult patients admitted to our emergency department and hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia were prospectively followed-up until hospital discharge or death. Nutritional status was assessed with the Controlling Nutritional Status score, which is based on serum albumin levels, total cholesterol levels, and lymphocyte counts. The primary study endpoint was complicated hospital course defined as need for mechanical ventilation, mortality, or intensive care unit admission.

Results:

Three hundred and five patients (mean age 68.6 ± 11.2 years and 51.8% female) were enrolled, and 40 patients (13.1%) had complicated hospitalizations. Older patients, patients with more comorbidities, and patients with higher Controlling Nutritional Status scores on admission were tended to have a higher rate of complications during their hospitalization. Multivariate analysis showed that older age (odds ratio 2.55, 95% confidence interval 1.41–4.64, p < 0.001), presence of diabetes (odds ratio 1.54; 95% confidence interval 1.09–3.65; p = 0.004), pneumonia severity index ⩾ 3 (odds ratio 1.27, 95% confidence interval 0.524–3.725, p = 0.035), and Controlling Nutritional Status score > 4 (odds ratio 2.23, 95% confidence interval 1.129–3.657, p = 0.001) were independent predictors of complicated hospitalizations.

Conclusion:

Malnutrition determined by Controlling Nutritional Status score predicts complications in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

Hypoalbuminemia as Surrogate and Culprit of Infections

Hypoalbuminemia is associated with the acquisition and severity of infectious diseases, and intact innate and adaptive immune responses depend on albumin. Albumin oxidation and breakdown affect interactions with bioactive lipid mediators that play important roles in antimicrobial defense and repair. There is bio-mechanistic plausibility for a causal link between hypoalbuminemia and increased risks of primary and secondary infections. Serum albumin levels have prognostic value for complications in viral, bacterial and fungal infections, and for infectious complications of non-infective chronic conditions. Hypoalbuminemia predicts the development of healthcare-associated infections, particularly with Clostridium difficile. In coronavirus disease 2019, hypoalbuminemia correlates with viral load and degree of acute lung injury and organ dysfunction. Non-oncotic properties of albumin affect the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of antimicrobials. Low serum albumin is associated with inadequate antimicrobial treatment. Infusion of human albumin solution (HAS) supplements endogenous albumin in patients with cirrhosis of the liver and effectively supported antimicrobial therapy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Evidence of the beneficial effects of HAS on infections in hypoalbuminemic patients without cirrhosis is largely observational. Prospective RCTs are underway and, if hypotheses are confirmed, could lead to changes in clinical practice for the management of hypoalbuminemic patients with infections or at risk of infectious complications.

The prognostic value of serum albumin levels and respiratory rate for community-acquired pneumonia: A prospective, multi-center study

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a respiratory disease frequently requiring hospital admission, and a significant cause of death worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of clinical indicators. A prospective, multi-center study was conducted (January 2017-December 2018) where patient demographic and clinical data were recorded (N = 366). The 30-day mortality rate was 5.46%. Cox Regression analyses showed that serum albumin (ALB) and respiratory rate (RR) were independent prognostic variables for 30-day survival in patients with CAP. Albumin negatively correlated with the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and CURB-65 scores using Pearson and Spearman tests. Survival curves showed that a RR >24 breaths/min or ALB ≤30 g/L were associated with a significantly higher risk of mortality. The area-under-the-curve (AUC) for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with CAP was 0.762, 0.763, 0.790, and 0.784 for ALB, RR, PSI, and CURB-65, respectively. The AUC for the prediction of 30-day mortality using ALB combined with PSI, CURB-65 scores, and RR was 0.822 (95% CI 0.731-0.912), 0.847 (95% CI 0.755-0.938), and 0.847 (95% CI 0.738-0.955), respectively. Albumin and RR were found to be reliable prognostic factors for CAP. This combination showed equal predictive value when compared to adding ALB assessment to PSI and CURB-65 scores, which could improve their prognostic accuracy.

Establishing Classifiers With Clinical Laboratory Indicators to Distinguish COVID-19 From Community-Acquired Pneumonia: Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

The initial symptoms of patients with COVID-19 are very much like those of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP); it is difficult to distinguish COVID-19 from CAP with clinical symptoms and imaging examination.

Objective

The objective of our study was to construct an effective model for the early identification of COVID-19 that would also distinguish it from CAP.

Methods

The clinical laboratory indicators (CLIs) of 61 COVID-19 patients and 60 CAP patients were analyzed retrospectively. Random combinations of various CLIs (ie, CLI combinations) were utilized to establish COVID-19 versus CAP classifiers with machine learning algorithms, including random forest classifier (RFC), logistic regression classifier, and gradient boosting classifier (GBC). The performance of the classifiers was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and recall rate in COVID-19 prediction using the test data set.

Results

The classifiers that were constructed with three algorithms from 43 CLI combinations showed high performance (recall rate >0.9 and AUROC >0.85) in COVID-19 prediction for the test data set. Among the high-performance classifiers, several CLIs showed a high usage rate; these included procalcitonin (PCT), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), uric acid, albumin, albumin to globulin ratio (AGR), neutrophil count, red blood cell (RBC) count, monocyte count, basophil count, and white blood cell (WBC) count. They also had high feature importance except for basophil count. The feature combination (FC) of PCT, AGR, uric acid, WBC count, neutrophil count, basophil count, RBC count, and MCHC was the representative one among the nine FCs used to construct the classifiers with an AUROC equal to 1.0 when using the RFC or GBC algorithms. Replacing any CLI in these FCs would lead to a significant reduction in the performance of the classifiers that were built with them.

Conclusions

The classifiers constructed with only a few specific CLIs could efficiently distinguish COVID-19 from CAP, which could help clinicians perform early isolation and centralized management of COVID-19 patients.

The role of qSOFA score and biomarkers in assessing severity of community-acquired pneumonia in adults

Introduction: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the primary cause of severe sepsis. Severity assessment scores have been created, in order to help physicians decide the proper management of CAP. The purpose of this study was to examine the correlations between different CAP severity scores, including qSOFA, several biomarkers and their predictive value in the 30 day follow-up period, regarding adverse outcome.

Materials and methods: One hundred and thirty nine adult patients with CAP, admitted in the Teaching Hospital of Infectious Diseases, Cluj-Napoca, Romania from December 2015 to February 2017, were enrolled in this study. Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), CURB-65, SMART-COP and the qSOFA scores were calculated at admittance. Also, C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and albumin levels were used to determine severity.

Results: The mean PSI of all patients was 93.30±41.135 points, for CURB-65 it was 1.91±0.928 points, for SMART-COP it was 1.69±1.937 points. The mean qSOFA was 1.06±0.522 points, 21 (14.9%) were at high risk of in-hospital mortality. In the group of patients with qSOFA of ≥2, all pneumonia severity scores and all biomarkers tested were higher than those with scores <2. We found significant correlations between biomarkers and severity scores, but none regarding adverse outcome.

Conclusion: The qSOFA score is easier to use and it is able to accurately evaluate the severity of CAP, similar to other scores. Biomarkers are useful in determining the severity of the CAP. Several studies are needed to assess the prediction of these biomarkers and severity scores in pneumonia regarding adverse outcome.

Risk factors for death in tuberculosis patients requiring ICU care

The prognostic factor for in-hospital mortality in tuberculosis (TB) patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) care remains unclear. Therefore, a retrospective study was conducted aiming to estimate the in-hospital mortality rate and the risk factors for mortality in a high-burden setting. All patients with culture-confirmed TB that were admitted to the ICU of the hospital between March 2012 and April 2019 were identified retrospectively. Data, such as demographic characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory measures and mortality, were obtained from medical records. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify prognostic factors that influence in-hospital mortality. A total of 82 ICU patients with confirmed TB were included in the analysis, and 22 deaths were observed during the hospital stay, 21 patients died in the ICU. In the multivariable model adjusted for sex and age, the levels of serum albumin and white blood cell (WBC) count were significantly associated with mortality in TB patients requiring ICU care (all P < 0.01), the hazard ratios were 0.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7–0.9) per 1 g/l and 1.1 (95% CI: 1.0–1.2) per 1 × 10⁹/l, respectively. In conclusion, in-hospital mortality remains high in TB patients requiring ICU care. Low serum albumin level and high WBC count significantly impact the risk of mortality in these TB patients in China.

Risk factors for mortality from severe community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized children transferred to the pediatric intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Some children hospitalized due to severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) require to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) because of severe complications. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors for mortality in this patient population.

METHODS

This study evaluated the medical records of 113 hospitalized children with severe CAP, who were transferred to the PICU within 48 h of admission at the Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center between 2013 and 2017.

RESULTS

The study group consisted of 87 boys (77%) and 26 girls (33%), aged between 1 month and 9 years; 72.6% (82/113) of patients were aged <12 months. The mortality rate was 12.3% (14/113). The most common viral and bacterial pathogens isolated were adenovirus (17.7%, 20/113) and Haemophilus influenzae (8.8%, 10/113). Wheezing, cyanosis, oxygen saturation <90%, Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) >3 on admission, not receiving corticosteroid therapy prior to admission, the need for mechanical ventilation, septic shock, multi-organ dysfunction (MODS), and acute renal failure (ARF) occurring prior to transfer to the PICU, increased alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST) levels, and decreased hemoglobin and albumin (ALB) levels were associated with mortality (P < 0.05). Non-survivors were more likely to have an oxygen saturation <90% on admission and lower levels of ALB prior to transfer to the PICU than survivors (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that hospitalized children with severe CAP who were transferred to the PICU within 48 h of hospital admission were mainly aged <1 year. Additionally, an oxygen saturation <90% and decreased ALB levels were early prognostic variables independently associated with death.

Diagnostic performance of initial blood urea nitrogen combined with D-dimer levels for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients

The crude mortality rate in critical pneumonia cases with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reaches 49%. This study aimed to test whether levels of blood urea nitrogen (BUN) in combination with D-dimer were predictors of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients. The clinical characteristics of 305 COVID-19 patients were analysed and were compared between the survivor and non-survivor groups. Of the 305 patients, 85 (27.9%) died and 220 (72.1%) were discharged from hospital. Compared with discharged cases, non-survivor cases were older and their BUN and D-dimer levels were significantly higher (P < 0.0001). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable Cox regression analyses identified BUN and D-dimer levels as independent risk factors for poor prognosis. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that elevated levels of BUN and D-dimer were associated with increased mortality (log-rank, P < 0.0001). The area under the curve for BUN combined with D-dimer was 0.94 (95% CI 0.90-0.97), with a sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 91%. Based on BUN and D-dimer levels on admission, a nomogram model was developed that showed good discrimination, with a concordance index of 0.94. Together, initial BUN and D-dimer levels were associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients. The combination of BUN ≥ 4.6 mmol/L and D-dimer ≥ 0.845 μg/mL appears to identify patients at high risk of in-hospital mortality, therefore it may prove to be a powerful risk assessment tool for severe COVID-19 patients.

Effect of albumin administration on outcomes in hypoalbuminemic patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (ALBUCAP): a prospective, randomized, phase III clinical controlled trial-a trial protocol

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains a leading cause of death worldwide, and hypoalbuminemia is associated with worse outcomes. However, it remains uncertain whether albumin administration could have any beneficial effects. We aim to assess whether the administration of albumin in hypoalbuminemic patients with CAP increases the proportion of clinically stable patients at day 5 compared with the standard of care alone.

Methods

This is a trial protocol for a superiority, non-blinded, multicenter, randomized, phase 3, interventional controlled clinical trial. The primary endpoint will be the proportion of clinical stable patients at day 5 (intention to treat), defined as those with stable vital signs for at least 24 h. The secondary endpoints will be time to clinical stability, duration of intravenous and total antibiotic treatment, length of hospital stay, intensive care unit admission, duration of mechanical ventilation and vasopressor treatment, adverse events, readmission within 30 days, and all-cause mortality. The trial has been approved by the Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency. The investigators commit to publish the data in peer-reviewed journals within a year of the study completion date. Subjects will be recruited from three Spanish hospitals over a planned enrolment period of 2 years. A follow-up visit will be performed 1 month after discharge. We have estimated the need for a sample size of 360 patients at a two-sided 5% alpha-level with a power of 80% based on intention to treat. Eligible participants must be hospitalized, hypoalbuminemic (≤ 30 g/L), non-immunosuppressed, adults, and diagnosed with CAP. They will be randomly assigned (1:1) to receive standard care plus albumin (20 g in 100 mL) every 12 h for 4 days or standard care alone.

Discussion

If this randomized trial confirms the hypothesis, it should lead to a change in current clinical practice for the management of hypoalbuminemic patients with CAP.

Trial registration

European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT) 2018-003117-18. Registered on 12 April 2019. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04071041. Registered on 27 August 2019

Serum albumin is independently associated with higher mortality in adult sickle cell patients: Results of three independent cohorts

Sickle cell disease (SCD) impacts liver and kidney function as well as skin integrity. These complications, as well as the hyperinflammatory state of SCD, could affect serum albumin. Serum albumin has key roles in antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and antithrombotic pathways and maintains vascular integrity. In SCD, these pathways modulate disease severity and clinical outcomes. We used three independent SCD adult cohorts to assess clinical predictors of serum albumin as well its association with mortality. In 2553 SCD adult participants, the frequency of low (<35 g/L) serum albumin was 5%. Older age and lower hemoglobin (P <0.001) were associated with lower serum albumin in all three cohorts. In age and hemoglobin adjusted analysis, higher liver enzymes (P <0.05) were associated with lower serum albumin. In two of the three cohorts, lower kidney function as measured by Glomerular Filtration Rate (P<0.001) was associated with lower serum albumin. Lower serum albumin predicted higher risk of tricuspid regurgitation velocity ≥ 2.5 m/s (OR = 1.1 per g/L, P ≤0.01). In all three cohorts, patients with low serum albumin had higher mortality (adjusted HR ≥2.9, P ≤0.003). This study confirms the role of serum albumin as a biomarker of disease severity and prognosis in patients with SCD. Albumin as a biomarker and possible mediator of SCD severity should be studied further.

Clinical Impact of N-Terminal Prohormone of Brain Natriuretic Peptide on Patients Hospitalized with Community-Acquired Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification is important for the management of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). The present study aimed to investigate the clinical impact of N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) on prognosis and to identify clinical characteristics associated with NT-proBNP elevation in CAP patients.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients hospitalized for CAP at a tertiary referral center and who underwent measurement plasma NT-proBNP levels. Based on 30-day mortality, patients (n = 1,821) were divided into 2 groups, survivors (n = 150) and nonsurvivors (n = 1,671), and clinical and laboratory findings were compared.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, blood levels of NT-proBNP (>942.5 pg/mL), albumin (<3.3 g/dL), and troponin I (>0.018 ng/mL) independently predicted 30-day mortality. Of these blood biomarkers, NT-proBNP exhibited the highest C-statistic, followed by albumin. NT-proBNP level/CURB-65 score and NT-proBNP level/pneumonia severity index (PSI) class exhibited significantly higher C-statistics than CURB-65 score and PSI class alone, respectively. The 3-test combinations of CURB-65 score/NT-proBNP level/albumin level and PSI class/NT-proBNP level/albumin level exhibited significantly higher C-statistics than the 2-test combinations. NT-proBNP elevation was associated with increased age, heart disease and chronic kidney disease and NT-proBNP levels only weakly or moderately correlated with other blood biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP level was a useful marker for the prediction of 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with CAP, and provided additional prognostic value to PSI or CURB-65 alone.

Impact of Disease on Plasma and Lung Exposure of Chloroquine, Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin: Application of PBPK Modeling

We use a mechanistic lung model to demonstrate that accumulation of chloroquine (CQ), hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), and azithromycin (AZ) in the lungs is sensitive to changes in lung pH, a parameter that can be affected in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A reduction in pH from 6.7 to 6 in the lungs, as observed in respiratory disease, led to 20-fold, 4.0-fold, and 2.7-fold increases in lung exposure of CQ, HCQ, and AZ, respectively. Simulations indicated that the relatively high concentrations of CQ and HCQ in lung tissue were sustained long after administration of the drugs had stopped. Patients with COVID-19 often present with kidney failure. Our simulations indicate that renal impairment (plus lung pH reduction) caused 30-fold, 8.0-fold, and 3.4-fold increases in lung exposures for CQ, HCQ, and AZ, respectively, with relatively small accompanying increases (20 to 30%) in systemic exposure. Although a number of different dosage regimens were assessed, the purpose of our study was not to provide recommendations for a dosing strategy, but to demonstrate the utility of a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling approach to estimate lung concentrations. This, used in conjunction with robust in vitro and clinical data, can help in the assessment of COVID-19 therapeutics going forward.

Clinical impact of frailty among patients with severe vital sign derangement: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Frailty is associated with increased morbidity and mortality and frail patients may have reduced ability to tolerate severe vital sign derangement such as estimated by a high National Early Warning Score (NEWS). The clinical impact of frailty among patients that develop high NEWS during hospital admissions is sparsely studied. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between clinical frailty and admission to intensive care unit (ICU) among these patients.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational study from November 2017 to January 2018. We included adult patients admitted to general wards that during hospitalization developed severe vital sign derangement defined as NEWS ≥7. Patients were without treatment restrictions at inclusion. Primary exposure was frailty as assessed by the Clinical Frailty Scale. Primary outcome was ICU admission within 90 days, which was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

We included 109 patients with NEWS ≥7, of which 61 patients (56%) were frail. Ten of the 61 frail patients (16%) were admitted to ICU compared to 9 of the 48 non-frail patients (19%), adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.92 (95% CI 0.32-2.62). Frail patients were more likely to have new treatment restrictions (aOR 2.91; 95% CI 1.26-6.71). Their aOR for mortality was 1.95 (95% CI 0.84-4.55).

CONCLUSION

Frail patients with severe vital sign derangement during acute hospital admissions were not more likely to be admitted to ICU nor was mortality higher. Treatment restrictions were more frequent among frail patients after vital sign derangements developed.

Early readmission and mortality in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with community-acquired pneumonia

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are important causes of hospital admission and mortality. Pneumonia is a major contributor to hospitalization for AECOPD and has a close relationship with poor outcomes. We performed a prospective cohort study to evaluate the prognosis of AECOPD patients with or without community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) who hospitalized from January 2012 to December 2015. We investigated mortality and readmission rates within 6 months after the first admission between two groups and analyzed the difference of survival rate according to readmission duration (≤30 vs. >30 days) or intensive care unit (ICU) treatment. Total 308 AECOPD patients (134 with CAP and 174 without CAP) were enrolled. The mean age was 72.3 ± 9.5 years old, and 235 patients (76.3%) were male. The 180-day mortality was higher in AECOPD with CAP than without CAP (24.6% vs. 13.2%; hazard ratio (HR): 1.982; 95% CI: 1.164–3.375; p = 0.012). However, readmission rate showed no significant difference between two groups (51.5% vs. 46.6%; HR: 1.172; 95% CI: 0.850–1.616; p = 0.333). It showed a significantly lower survival rate in AECOPD with CAP rather than without CAP when were readmitted within 30 days (HR: 1.738; 95% CI:1.063–3.017; p = 0.031). According to ICU treatment, survival rate was not significantly different between two groups. Multivariate analysis revealed the readmission within 30 days (p  <  0.001), serum hemoglobin concentration (p  =  0.010), and albumin level (p =  0.049) were significantly associated with 180-day mortality of AECOPD with CAP. AECOPD with CAP showed lower survival rate than AECOPD without CAP during 6 months. Early readmission within 30 days was significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality.

The impact of cytomegalovirus infection on clinical severity and outcomes in kidney transplant recipients with Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP) in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs), but its impact on clinical severity and outcomes in KTRs with PJP is unknown. We reviewed 1994 medical records of KTRs from January 1997 to March 2019. PJP or CMV infection was diagnosed by polymerase chain reaction or culturing using blood or respiratory specimens. We divided patients into PJP and PJP+CMV groups, and evaluated the clinical severity and outcomes. Fifty two patients had PJP (2.6%) in the whole study cohort. Among patients with PJP, 38 (73.1%) had PJP alone and 14 (26.9%) had combined PJP and CMV co-infection. The PJP+CMV group showed worse laboratory findings (serum albumin and C-reactive protein, P = 0.010 for both) and higher requirement of continuous renal replacement therapy than the PJP group (P = 0.050). The pneumonia severity was worse in the PJP+CMV group than in the PJP group (P < 0.05), and CMV infection was a high risk factor of pneumonia severity (odds ratio 16.0; P = 0.002). The graft function was worse in the PJP+CMV group (P < 0.001), and the incidence of graft failure was higher in the PJP+CMV group than in the PJP group (85.7% vs 36.8%; P < 0.001). Mortality was double in the PJP+CMV group than in the PJP group, but not statistically significant (21.4% vs 10.5%; P = 0.370). Our results show that approximately one in four patients with PJP after kidney transplantation develops CMV with increased clinical severity and risk of graft failure. The possibility of increased clinical severity and worse clinical outcomes by CMV co-infection should be considered in KTRs with PJP.

Utility of the blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio as a prognostic factor of mortality in aspiration pneumonia patients

PURPOSE

This study aimed to determine whether the blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin (B/A) ratio is a useful prognostic factor of mortality in patients with aspiration pneumonia.

METHODS

The study included patients with aspiration pneumonia who had been admitted to our hospital via the emergency department (ED) between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2018. The 28-day mortality after the ED visits was the primary end point of this study. The data of the survivors and non-survivors were compared.

RESULTS

A final diagnosis of aspiration pneumonia was made for 443 patients during the study period. Significant differences were observed in age, respiratory rate, albumin levels, total protein levels, blood urea nitrogen levels, C-reactive protein levels, glucose, and Charlson comorbidity index scores between the survivor and non-survivor groups. Moreover, the B/A ratio was significantly higher in the non-survivor group than that in the survivor group. The area under the curve for the B/A ratio was 0.70 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.74], 0.71 for the PSI (95% CI 0.67-0.76), 0.64 for CURB-65 (95% CI 0.60-0.69), and 0.65 for albumin (95% CI 0.60-0.70) on the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting mortality within 28 days of the ED visit. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the B/A ratio (>7, OR 3.40, 95% CI 1.87-6.21, P < 0.001) was associated with mortality within 28 days of the ED visit.

CONCLUSION

The B/A ratio is a simple and potentially useful prognostic factor of mortality in aspiration pneumonia patients.

Body mass index and albumin levels are prognostic factors for long-term survival in elders with limited performance status

Elderly long-term care facility residents typically have musculoskeletal conditions that may lead to long-term disability and increased mortality. Our main objective was to explore the relationship between body mass index (BMI), albumin levels, and mortality in elderly individuals with limited performance status. Among 182 participants (mean age, 78.8 years; 57% women), 11%, 64%, and 25% had serum albumin levels of <2.8, 2.8-3.5, and >3.5 g/dL, respectively. After multivariate adjustments, diastolic blood pressure >90 mmHg was associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13-3.82; P = 0.018]. In addition, BMI <18.5 kg/m2 and albumin level <2.8 g/dL associated with higher mortality than BMI = 18.5-24 kg/m2 and albumin level > 3.5 g/dL (HR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.11-2.94 and HR = 2.54, 95% CI 1.22-5.30, respectively; P = 0.018 and 0.013, respectively). Highest mortality was noted in participants with albumin levels <2.8 g/dL and BMIs <18.5 kg/m2 (HR = 6.12, 95% CI = 1.85-20.21, P = 0.003). Combined hypoalbuminemia (albumin level < 2.8 g/dL) and low BMI (<18.5 kg/m2) may be a useful prognostic indicator of high mortality risk in elderly individuals with limited performance status.

Age, Pulse, Urea and Albumin (APUA) Model: A Tool for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality of Community-Acquired Pneumonia Adapted for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a tool for predicting in-hospital mortality of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on 531 CAP patients with T2DM at The First Hospital of Qinhuangdao. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Variables to develop the nomogram were selected using multiple logistic regression analysis. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plot.

RESULTS

Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that age, pulse, urea and albumin (APUA) were independent risk predictors. Based on these results, we developed a nomogram (APUA model) for predicting in-hospital mortality of CAP in T2DM patients. In the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the APUA model was 0.814 (95% CI: 0.770-0.853), which was higher than the AUCs of albumin alone, CURB-65 and Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) class (p<0.05). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ ²=5.298, p=0.808) and calibration plot (p=0.802) showed excellent agreement between the predicted possibility and the actual observation in the APUA model. The results of the validation set were similar to those of the training set.

CONCLUSION

The APUA model is a simple and accurate tool for predicting in-hospital mortality of CAP, adapted for patients with T2DM. The predictive performance of the APUA model was better than CURB-65 and PSI class.

Acute-subacute paracoccidioidomycosis: A paediatric cohort of 141 patients, exploring clinical characteristics, laboratorial analysis and developing a non-survival predictor

The acute-subacute form of paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) is a severe systemic mycosis that affects children and adolescents from endemic regions, leading to generalised lymphadenopathy, fever, weight loss, anaemia, eosinophilia, hypoalbuminemia and hypergammaglobulinemia. The objective of this study is to describe the clinical and laboratorial characteristics of acute-subacute PCM, to determine a mortality risk factor and to propose a test for non-survival hazard related to the disease. Children and adolescents diagnosed with PCM, under 15 years were included in the study. Their epidemiological, clinical and laboratorial data were obtained from the hospital records. Descriptive analysis, comparison of means, univariate logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression and a ROC curve were performed in order to identify significant information (P < .05). Through a period of 38 years, 141 children and adolescents were diagnosed with acute-subacute PCM. The main antifungal agent used for the treatment was sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (SMX-TMP). The complication rate was 17%, the relapse rate was 7.8% and the mortality rate was 5.7%. A low albumin dosage was identified as a predictor factor for mortality. The cut-off for serum albumin was 2.18 g/dL, above which, the survival rate is 99.1%. Thus, simple clinical and laboratorial examinations may lead to the diagnosis of acute-subacute PCM, and the beginning of the treatment is encouraged even before the isolation of the fungus in biological samples, preventing unfavourable outcomes. Patients with an albumin dosage ≤ 2.18g/dL must receive special attention, preferably hospitalised, during the first four weeks of treatment for presenting an elevated mortality hazard.

Procalcitonin, C-Reactive Protein, Albumin, and Blood Cultures as Early Markers of Sepsis Diagnosis or Predictors of Outcome: A Prospective Analysis

Purpose:

Sepsis is a condition with high mortality rates and its diagnosis remains a challenge. We assessed epidemiological, clinical data, multiple biomarker profiles, and blood culture with respect to sepsis diagnosis and predictors of outcome.

Methods:

In total, 183 patients who were suspected of having sepsis and underwent blood culture collection were followed up for 7 days. Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were calculated daily; biomarkers and blood culture test results were evaluated.

Results:

In total, 78 (43%) had sepsis, 50 (27%) had septic shock, and 55 (30%) had no sepsis. Blood culture was positive in 28% and 42% of the sepsis and septic shock groups, respectively (P < .001). Regarding clinical profiles and biomarker values, there were no differences between the sepsis and non-sepsis groups, but significant differences were observed in the septic shock group. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed that age, serum albumin level, APACHE II, and SOFA 1^st day scores were the independent variables for death.

Conclusions:

The challenge in the diagnosis of sepsis continues as clinical and laboratory differences found between the groups were due to septic shock. Older aged patients with lower albumin levels and higher APACHE II and SOFA 1^st day scores have a greater probability of mortality.