Evidence from population mixing in British New Towns 1946-85 of an infective basis for childhood leukaemia

Paternal occupational contact level and childhood leukaemia in rural Scotland: a case-control study

In a national Scottish study of 809 cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkins lymphoma diagnosed in 1950-89 among children aged 0-4 years who were born in Scotland, together with 2363 matched population controls, we investigated one aspect of the infective hypothesis. This concerns whether in rural areas (where the prevalence of susceptible individuals is likely to be higher) the risk is greater among the young children of men whose work involves contacts with many different people, particularly children, as noted in certain childhood infections. A positive trend was found in rural areas across 3 levels of increasing paternal occupational contact (as recorded at birth) by each of 2 previously defined classifications; no such effect was found in urban areas. The rural trend was more marked in that part of the study period with greater population mixing, but the difference from the period with less mixing was not itself significant, leaving open whether these rural findings reflect the extreme isolation of much of rural Scotland, or the effects in such areas of a degree of population mixing. In marked contrast, among the 850 cases and 2492 controls aged 5-14, those in rural areas in the higher population mixing period showed a significantly decreasing trend with increasing paternal occupational contact level. This would be consistent with immunity produced either by earlier infection at ages 0-4 years, or directly by low doses of the infective agent that were largely immunizing at these older ages. The findings overall provide further support for infection underlying childhood leukaemia and for the role of adults.

Screening for herpesvirus genomes in common acute lymphoblastic leukemia

There is epidemiological evidence that infection may play a role in the etiology of childhood leukemia in particular common B cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. A panel of 20 leukemic samples (panel 1) was examined for the presence of four lymphotropic herpesviruses using conventional molecular techniques. A second independent panel of 27 leukemic samples (panel 2), along with 28 control peripheral blood samples from children with other forms of cancer, was tested for the presence of the same four viruses using sensitive real-time quantitative PCR. While herpesvirus genomes were detected, they were present at very low levels; detection rates and levels were similar in the leukemic and control panels. In addition we surveyed 18 leukemic samples (five from panel 1, six from panel 2 and a further seven samples not previously analyzed) using a degenerate PCR assay capable of detecting the genomes of known herpesviruses plus putative new members of the family. No novel herpesvirus genomes were detected suggesting that a herpesvirus is unlikely to be etiologically involved as a transforming agent in common acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Historical evidence that residential electrification caused the emergence of the childhood leukemia peak

A peak in childhood leukemia, ages two through four, emerged de novo in the 1920s in the United Kingdom and slightly later in the United States (US). Electrification in US farm and rural areas lagged behind urban areas until 1956. In recent years, childhood leukemia has been associated with residential electromagnetic fields. During 1928-1932, in states with above 75% of residences served by electricity, leukemia mortality increased with age for single years 0-4, while states with electrification levels below 75% showed a decreasing trend with age (P = 0.009). During 1949-1951, all states showed a peak in leukemia mortality at ages 2-4. At ages 0-1, leukemia mortality was not related to electrification levels. At ages 2-4, there was a 24% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8%-41%) increase in leukemia mortality for a 10% increase in percent of homes served by electricity. The childhood leukemia peak of common acute lymphoblastic leukemia may be attributable to electrification.

Early child-care and preschool experiences and the risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

An infectious etiology for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) has been suggested, yet few studies have focused on the role of early child care. Day-care histories were examined in a case-control study of ALL in New York State. Cases (n = 255) were diagnosed at one of four referral centers between 1980 and 1991; controls (n = 760) were randomly selected from livebirths in the 31 counties served by the referral centers. Self-administered questionnaires were mailed to the parents of cases and controls in 1995. Day-care histories were censored at the age of diagnosis for cases and at an equivalent date for controls. The odds ratio for children who stayed at home compared with those who attended day care for >36 months was 1.32 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70, 2.52); the odds ratios for 1-18 and 19-36 months of day care were 1.74 (95% CI: 0.89, 3.42) and 1.32 (95% CI: 0.64, 2.71), respectively. Elimination of cases with T-cell ALL enhanced the risk. Starting care at an earlier age was not associated with a decreased risk of ALL. These findings do not support the hypothesis that infrequent contact with peers during early childhood could delay exposure to infectious diseases and increase the risk of ALL.

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study: objectives, materials and methods. UK Childhood Cancer Study Investigators

An investigation into the possible causes of childhood cancer has been carried out throughout England, Scotland and Wales over the period 1991-1998. All children known to be suffering from one or other type of the disease over periods of 4-5 years have been included, and control children matched for sex, age and area of residence have been selected at random from population registers. Information about both groups of children (with and without cancer) has been obtained from parental questionnaires, general practitioners' and hospital records, and from measurement of the extent of exposure to radon gas, terrestrial gamma radiation, and electric and magnetic fields. Samples of blood have also been obtained from the affected children and their parents and stored. Altogether 3,838 children with cancer, including 1,736 with leukaemia, and 7,629 unaffected children have been studied. Detailed accounts are given of the nature of the information obtained in sections describing the general methodology of the study, the measurement of exposure to ionizing and non-ionizing radiation, the classification of solid tumours and leukaemias, and the biological material available for genetic analysis.

Patterns of infection and day care utilization and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

To investigate if decreased exposure to common childhood infections is associated with risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) we conducted a case-control study of 1842 newly diagnosed and immunophenotypically defined cases of ALL under age 15, and 1986 matched controls in the US. Data regarding day care, sibship size and common childhood infections were obtained through parental interviews. Data were analysed stratified by leukaemia lineage and separately for 'common' childhood ALL (age 2-5 years, CD19, CD10-positive). Neither attendance at day care nor time at day care was associated with risk of ALL overall or 'common' ALL. Ear infections during infancy were less common among cases, with odds ratios of 0.86, 0.83, 0.71 and 0.69 for 1, 2-4, 5+ episodes, and continuous infections respectively (trend P = 0.026). No effect of sibship size or birth interval was seen. With one exception (ear infections), these data do not support the hypothesis that a decrease in the occurrence of common childhood infection increases risk of ALL.

JC and BK virus sequences are not detectable in leukaemic samples from children with common acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

Epidemiological evidence suggests that childhood leukaemia, and possibly common acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in particular, may have an infectious aetiology. Smith (1997 J Immunother 20: 89-100) recently suggested that the critical infectious event occurs during pregnancy, and identified the polyoma virus JC as a candidate agent. In the present study we investigated whether genomes from the JC virus, and closely related BK virus, could be detected in leukaemic cells. No positive results were obtained suggesting that JC virus is unlikely to play a direct role in leukaemogenesis.

Are the children of fathers whose jobs involve contact with many people at an increased risk of leukaemia?

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the hypothesis that children of men whose jobs involve contact with many people (particularly children) are at an increased risk of leukaemia.

METHODS

A population based dataset obtained from routinely collected death certificates involving 14,168 cancer deaths occurring before the age of 15 years registered in England and Wales between 1959-63 and 1970-90. Associations were assessed with the proportional cancer mortality ratio (PCMR), with all childhood cancer deaths forming the standard for comparison. The PCMRs were adjusted, by stratification, for age and year of death (in 1-year bands) and paternal social class (nine categories). Analyses were performed by estimated level of paternal occupational social contact (high, medium, and low) for all leukaemias, leukaemia subtype, age at death, year of death, and individual occupation.

RESULTS

Out of 223 occupations, 36 (16%) were identified as having potentially high levels of social contact, and 27 (12%) as having potentially medium levels of social contact. No associations were found between paternal occupational social contact and death during childhood from leukaemia (high social contact: PCMR 94, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 87 to 102; medium social contact: 101, 95 to 106). No associations were found when the data were analysed by leukaemia subtype, age at death, year of death, or individual occupation.

CONCLUSION

The findings presented here do not support the suggestion that childhood leukaemia is related to the amount of social contact that fathers experience at work.

Population density and childhood leukaemia: results of the EUROCLUS Study

The EUROCLUS study assembled incidence data for 13,551 cases of childhood leukaemia (CL) diagnosed between 1980 and 1989 in 17 countries (or regions of countries). These were referenced by location at diagnosis to small census areas of which there were 25,723 in the study area. Population counts, surface area and, hence, population density were available for all these small areas. Previous analyses have shown limited extra-Poisson variation (EPV) of case counts within small areas; this is most pronounced in areas of intermediate population density (150-499 persons/km2). In this study, the data set was examined in more detail for evidence that variations in incidence and EPV of CL are associated with population density. Incidence showed a curvilinear association with population density and was highest in areas which were somewhat more densely populated (500-750 persons/km2), where the incidence rate ratio relative to areas having > or = 1000 persons/km2 was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.26) and the P value for quadratic trend across eight strata of population density was 0.02. Incidence in these areas is uniformly elevated and showed no evidence of heterogeneity (i.e. EPV). Statistically significant evidence of EPV was evident amongst some of the areas previously classified as intermediate density areas (specifically, those with a density of 250-499 persons/km2, P < 0.001 for CL). These results were interpreted in terms of the current aetiological hypotheses for CL which propose that exposure to localised epidemics of one or more common infectious agent may contribute to the development of leukaemia. They suggest that such epidemics arise regularly in moderately densely populated areas and also sporadically in areas which are somewhat less densely populated. Although other interpretations are possible, these results may assist in the identification of characteristics which infectious agents must possess if direct or indirect causes of CL.

Evidence of space-time clustering of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in Sweden

We have examined 645 recorded cases of childhood acute lymphatic leukaemia (ALL) in Sweden during 1973-89 to identify space-time clustering by using the close-pair method of Knox. The records included date of birth and of diagnosis as well as addresses at birth and at diagnosis. There was a significant excess of case pairs close in date of birth and place of birth in the 5- to 15-year age group.

Higher risk for acute childhood lymphoblastic leukaemia in Swedish population centres 1973-94. Swedish Child Leukaemia Group

A population-based sample of acute childhood leukaemia cases in Sweden 1973-94 was analysed by a geographical information system (GIS) for spatial leukaemia distribution in relation to population density. The annual incidence rate for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) was 3.6, and for acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia (ANLL) 0.7, cases per 100,000 children. Incidence rates in population centres, constituting 1.3% of Sweden's land area and approximately 80% of the population, compared with the rest of Sweden showed a statistically significant excess of ALL [odds ratio (OR) 1.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.44-1.95], but not ANLL (OR 1.13; 95% CI 0.98-1.32). An increasing trend, however not statistically significant, was found for ALL incidence with both increasing population density in parishes and increasing degree of urbanity in municipalities. These findings support the theories that some environmental factors associated with high population density, such as infectious agents, may be of aetiological importance for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

Space-time clustering of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in parts of the U.K. (1984-1993)

Age-related differences in the incidence and immunological subtypes of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) suggest that it may be composed of more than one disease entity, each with different aetiologies. Childhood leukaemia (of which the majority of cases are ALL) has been suspected of having an infectious aetiology, but few studies have systematically examined ALL for clustering by age group. The aim of this study was to examine ALL for evidence of space-time clustering of date and place of diagnosis by age group. Knox space-time analysis was carried out separately for three different age groups: childhood (0-14 years), young adult (15-34 years) and older adults (35-79 years). Data on 968 cases of ALL aged 0-79 years, arising during 1984-1993 in the areas covered by a specialist population based register of leukaemias and lymphomas in parts of the U.K., were used in the analysis. Space-time clustering of diagnoses was limited to children aged 0-14 years. It was more prominent in those diagnosed in the period 1984-1988, than in those diagnosed in 1989-1993. The clustering may indicate an infectious aetiology for childhood ALL, or could be the result of episodic exposures to some environmental hazard.

Migration patterns of children with cancer in Britain

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the early migration patterns of children who later developed cancer. To test a prior hypothesis that some cancers are initiated by early exposures to toxic atmospheric pollutants from point sources.

DESIGN

Address changes in children dying from cancer are examined in relation to potentially hazardous sites of several different types. The relative proximities of birth addresses and death addresses to these sites, are compared. The approach is based upon the premise that a local exposure, effective only at an early age, must be preferentially linked with an early address.

SETTING AND SUBJECTS

Records of 22,458 children dying from leukaemia or other cancer under the age of 16 years in Great Britain between 1953 and 1980: including 9224 who moved house between birth and death. The migration analysis was based upon birth and death addresses, converted first to postcodes and thence to map coordinates. The geographical locations of potentially toxic industrial sites were obtained through direct map searches and from commercial directories.

RESULTS

Systematic asymmetries were found between measured distances from birth and death addresses to sources emitting volatile organic compounds, or using large scale combustion processes. The children had more often moved away from these hazards than towards them. Many of the sources had already been identified as hazardous using other methods. There was also a birth association with areas of dense habitation; possibly because of unidentified toxic sources contained within them. All forms of cancer were involved although some effluents were associated preferentially with specific types.

CONCLUSIONS

The main findings of an earlier study, based upon a different and independent method, were confirmed. Proximities to several types of industrial source, around the time of birth, were followed by a raised risk of childhood cancer. Combustion products and volatile organic compounds were especially implicated. Within the 16 year limit of the study, the increased risk did not decay with advancing age. Low atmospheric concentrations of many carcinogenic substances suggest that the mother acts as a cumulative filter and passes them to the fetus across the placenta or in breast milk.

Childhood cancer: improved prospects for survival but is prevention possible?

With optimum treatment 65-70% of children diagnosed with cancer should be long term survivors and probably cured. Prevention is better than cure. Recent studies into the causes of childhood malignancy are reviewed. The incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is steadily increasing. The cause for this may be increasing social and economic development. Exposure to electromagnetic fields has been a cause of concern for almost 20 years. A recent large case control study has shown no increased risk of cancer or leukaemia in those who have measurably increased exposure to electromagnetic fields. Leukaemia which has the cytogenetic abnormality 11q23 or MLL gene rearrangement characteristically occurs as a second malignancy after exposure to epipodophyllotoxins which act by inhibiting topoisomerase. Infant leukaemia has the same cytogenetic profile. Mothers of babies who develop infant leukaemia have high exposure to potential dietary inhibitors of topoisomerase during pregnancy. Clusters of leukaemia can probably best be accounted for by population mixing. There may be an increased risk of ALL following vitamin K given to newborns.

Common and emerging infectious causes of hematological malignancies in the young

Comparative epidemiological studies have for a long time suggested a link (or links) between infectious agents and hematological malignancies in the young. Identification of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) as the major cause of specific subtypes of Burkitt's lymphoma and Hodgkin's disease 20 and 10 years ago, respectively, and the recent involvement of human T-cell leukemia virus in non-Hodgkin's lymphomas of the T-cell lineage in young adults in Jamaica have given further credit to early presumptions that these diseases have an infectious etiology. The spectrum of possibly involved viruses: old, EBV, and new, herpesviruses 6, 7 and 8, and unknown retroviruses - as well as the list of partially or totally unresolved disease entities: Hodgkin's disease in adolescents, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas in the immunocompromised, and acute lymphocytic leukemia - is rapidly expanding. Both direct and indirect transforming effects of the above-mentioned viruses are being rapidly disclosed. However, the complex interaction between the different viruses and other causes of hematological malignancies in the young guarantees that many things remain to be discovered also in the future.

Geographical distribution of birth places of children with cancer in the UK

Using birth addresses, we examined the geographical variation in risk for all types of childhood cancers in the UK, on a scale corresponding to the 10-km squares of the National Grid. The effects of socioeconomic and environmental factors, including natural background radiation, were investigated and their relative importance assessed using Poisson regression. Data came from a national collection of all fatal cancers between 1953 and 1980 in children aged 0-15 years and consisted of 9363 children of known place of birth from 12 complete annual cohorts born in the period 1953-64. For solid cancers, as well as for leukaemias and lymphomas, there was marked variation of cumulative mortality according to place of birth. High mortalities were associated with areas characterized as having high social class, higher incomes and good housing conditions, but also with high population densities (births per hectare). Each of these contrasting social indicators operated independently of the other, indicating complex determining mechanisms. Mortalities increased with increased radon exposure, and the relationship operated independently of the socioeconomic factors. At this scale of analysis, we found no increased mortality in industrialized areas. A population-mixing infective hypothesis, which postulates high rates of leukaemia when highly exposed urban populations are introduced to isolated rural areas, was supported by observations of high mortalities in 'growth areas' and New Towns, but was not readily reconcilable with the high rates seen in the high-density areas. If these correlations do indeed represent an infective mechanism, then the outcomes are not limited to malignancies of the immune system alone.

Birth characteristics, sibling patterns, and acute leukemia risk in childhood: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The occurrence of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) during childhood may be influenced by factors operating in fetal life. Furthermore, childhood ALL has been suggested to be linked to patterns of infection during infancy.

PURPOSE

To explore these hypotheses and other associations, we studied the impact of sibling patterns (e.g., birth order) and birth characteristics (e.g., birth weight) on the risk of childhood ALL and AML.

METHODS

By linkage of records of population-based registries, a cohort of all children whose mothers were born in Denmark from April 1935 through March 1978 was established. Children who developed ALL or AML during the period from April 1968 through December 1992 were identified by linkage with the Danish Cancer Registry. Birth weights were obtained for children born during the period from January 1973 through December 1992 by linkage with the Medical Birth Registry.

RESULTS

The cohort of approximately 2.0 million children was followed for the diagnosis of ALL or AML for 20.9 million person-years. A total of 704 cases of childhood ALL were identified. Among 0-4 year olds, the relative risks (RRs) of ALL for birth order positions 1, 2, 3, and 4+ were 1.00 (reference), 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.68-1.07), 0.91 (95% CI = 0.66-1.25), and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.30-1.06), respectively (P for trend = .09). A decreasing trend was not observed among 5-14 year olds. A significant log-linear association between birth weight and the risk of ALL was observed for both age groups. Overall, the RR of ALL increased by a factor of 1.46 (95% CI = 1.18-1.81) (P = .0005) for each kilogram of increase in birth weight. A total of 114 cases of childhood AML were identified. Children born second or later in the birth order had an increased risk of AML (RR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.01-2.32) compared with firstborns. A particularly high risk of AML at ages 2 (RR = 2.53; 95% CI = 1.46-4.40) and 3 years was associated with having siblings compared with being an only child at those ages. Similar to the findings for ALL risk, there was a significant association between birth weight and AML risk. The relative increase in AML risk per 1-kg increase in birth weight was 2.14 (95% CI = 1.19-3.85; P = .009).

CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS

The association between birth weight and childhood leukemia suggests the importance of intrauterine factors. A plausible explanation may be that increasing birth weight is associated with a higher rate of cell proliferation and/or a larger number of precursor cells being at risk of malignant transformation. The inverse association between birth order and ALL risk among 0-4 year olds was weak, but it was compatible with the hypothesis that delayed exposure to infection may increase the risk of ALL in this age group. The association of childhood AML with birth order and sibship size at young ages deserves further attention in the search for environmental factors that affect childhood AML risk.

Hazard proximities of childhood cancers in Great Britain from 1953-80

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Firstly, to examine relationships between the birth and death addresses of children dying from leukaemia and cancer in Great Britain, and the sites of potential environmental hazards; and secondly to measure relative case densities close to, and at increasing distances from, different hazard types.

DESIGN

Home address postcodes (PCs) and their map coordinates were identified at birth and at death in children who died from leukaemia or cancer. Potentially hazardous industrial addresses and PCs were listed from business and other directories, and map coordinates obtained from the Central Postcode Directory or else located directly on Ordnance Survey (OS) maps. Railway lines and motorways were digitised from OS maps. Numbers of deaths (and births) at successive radial distances from these hazards were counted and compared with expected numbers. The latter were based on a count of all PCs at similar distances. Relative case density ratios at successive distances from the hazards were obtained from observed and expected numbers, aggregated over similar sites. This was repeated for different hazard types and results were tested for evidence of systematic centrifugal case density gradients.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

All 22,458 children dying from leukaemia or cancer aged 0-15 years, in England, Wales, and Scotland, between 1953 and 1980.

MAIN RESULTS

Relative excesses of leukaemias and of solid cancers were found near the following: (1) oil refineries, major oil storage installations, railside oil distribution terminals and factories making bitumen products; (2) motor car factories, coach builders, and car body repairers; (3) major users of petroleum products including manufacturers of solvents, paint sprayers, fibreglass fabricators, paint and varnish makers, plastics and detergent manufacturers, and galvanisers; (4) users of kilns and furnaces including steelworks, power stations, galvanisers, cement makers, brickworks, crematoria and aluminium, zinc, and iron/steel foundries; (5) airfields, railways, motorways and harbours. The findings for leukaemias and for solid cancers were indistinguishable. The hazard proximities of birth addresses were stronger than for death addresses. For children who had moved house between birth and death, the proximity effect was limited to the birth addresses.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood cancers are geographically associated with two main types of industrial atmospheric effluent namely: (1) petroleum derived volatiles and (2) kiln and furnace smoke and gases, and effluents from internal combustion engines.

The risk profile of childhood leukaemia in Greece: a nationwide case-control study

The risk profile of childhood leukaemia in Greece was studied through a case-control investigation that included all 153 incident cases of the disease, ascertained throughout the country during 1993 and 1994, and two hospital controls for every case matched for gender, age and place of residence. The data were analysed using conditional logistic regression and the associations are expressed in terms of adjusted odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals. Cases were born to mothers of a higher standard education, the OR for an increment of four schooling years being 1.48 (1.17-1.87) and had higher birth weight, the OR for an increment of 500g being 1.36 (1.04-1.77). Pet ownership and birth after a pregnancy with anaemia were associated with increased risk, the ORs being 2.18 (1.14-4.16) and 2.60 (1.39-4.86) respectively. From the frequency analyses, indicative inverse associations were found with birth order, household crowding and previous hospitalization with allergic diseases, whereas indicative positive associations were found with diabetes mellitus during pregnancy and with neonatal jaundice. Substantial or significant elevations were not found with respect to maternal smoking and coffee drinking during pregnancy, diagnostic radiography and ultrasonographic examinations or blood transfusions. A significant inverse association with maternal consumption of alcohol could be due to multiple comparisons, but a detrimental effect can probably be excluded. A non-significant positive association with total shots of viral vaccinations and a weak non-significant inverse association with breast feeding were also found. We interpret the findings of this study as being compatible with acute childhood leukaemia being linked with delayed development of herd immunity to fairly common infectious agents, in conjunction with accelerated perinatal and early post-natal growth.

High-contact paternal occupations, infection and childhood leukaemia: five studies of unusual population-mixing of adults

The hypothesis has been tested that, among excesses of childhood leukaemia associated with extreme population-mixing, the incidence is higher for the children of men in occupations involving contact with many individuals (particularly children), as noted in certain childhood infections. Data on childhood leukaemia were examined from five previous studies of the author in which significant excesses had been found associated with population-mixing involving adults. Occupational titles were categorized according to the estimated level of work contacts as medium, high, very high or indeterminate. Occupations involving frequent contact with children were categorized as having a very high contact level given the high frequency of exposure to the infection postulated as underlying childhood leukaemia. There was a significant positive trend (P < 0.001) in childhood leukaemia risk at ages 0-14 years across the occupational contact categories from the reference group (comprising the medium and low plus indeterminate categories) through high to very high (i.e. high-child) contact categories in the combined data from the author's five studies of adult population-mixing; this significant trend also applied at ages 0-4 (P < 0.001) and 5-14 (P < 0.01) years. The excess in the high category was mainly because of paternal occupations connected with the construction industry and transport, suggesting a broader definition of the 'very high' contact category. No sign of these excesses was found in a limited examination of the question outside areas of population-mixing using mortality data for childhood leukaemia in the general population of England and Wales. The findings represent the first individual-based support for infection underlying childhood leukaemia that is promoted by population-mixing, as well as further support for the role of adults in transmission of the infection.

Effect of population mixing and socioeconomic status in England and Wales, 1979-85, on lymphoblastic leukaemia in children

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of migration, diversity of migrant origins, commuting, and socioeconomic status on the incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in childhood.

DESIGN

Poisson regression analysis of incidence rates in relation to the variables of interest.

SETTING

The 403 county districts of England and Wales during 1979-85.

SUBJECTS

Children aged under 15 years.

RESULTS

There were significant trends in the incidence of lymphoblastic leukaemia at ages 0-4 and 5-9 years with the proportion of children in a district who had recently entered the district. While there was no consistent relation between the proportion of recent incomers in the total population of a district and its incidence rate, the combination of higher migration with greater diversity of origins or distance moved was associated with higher incidence in both age groups. Incidence increased significantly at age 0-4 with the level of employment in a district and at age 5-9 with the proportion of households with access to a car. No significant trends were found with commuting.

CONCLUSIONS

The results for level of child migration and diversity of total migration provide evidence of an effect of population mixing on the incidence of childhood leukaemia which is not restricted to areas experiencing the most extreme levels of mixing.

Month-of-birth and incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children

As a means of examining the virus-relatedness of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in children, we investigated the association between month-of-birth and the occurrence of ALL in 1487 children aged 0-15 years at the time of diagnosis. Our hypothesis being that evidence of seasonal variation in births of ALL cases would suggest exposure to a transmissible etiologic agent during the perinatal period. The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and consisted of children diagnosed during the years 1973-1986. Aggregate monthly incidence rates of ALL stratified by month-of-birth, for each SEER site, all sites combined, and for broad geographic regions were calculated. No evidence for an association between month-of-birth and childhood ALL was found.

Space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia in Greece: evidence supporting a viral aetiology

The method introduced by Knox for evaluation of space-time clustering has been applied to 872 cases of childhood (0-14 year old) leukaemia diagnosed in Greece over the 10 year period 1980-89. Greek towns are characterised by substantial population mixing due to internal migration, whereas there is relative isolation in mountainous rural areas. Predetermined space (5 km) and time (1 year) limits were used on the basis of previous reports in order to define the clustering cell. There is highly significant evidence for clustering of childhood leukaemia in Greece as a whole, the observed number of pairs that are close in both spaces and time exceeding the expected number by 5.2% (P = 0.004). The excess is particularly evident for leukaemia cases in 0 to 4-year-old children, among whom the observed number of pairs that are close in both space and time exceeded the expected number by 9.4% (P = 0.004). There is no evidence of space-time clustering for leukaemia cases older than 5 years. The overall pattern is descriptively similar in urban and semiurban areas and is especially marked for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia at the childhood peak ages (2-4 years) with an excess of 19% (P = 0.0006). In the rural population there is evidence for clustering of cases belonging to older and broader age groups, a phenomenon compatible with a delay in the development of herd immunity against putative infectious aetiological agents. The findings of the present study provide support for the hypothesis that a substantial proportion of cases of childhood leukaemia may arise as a rare sequel to exposure to an agent or agents, most probably viral in nature.

Analysis of risk factors in a cluster of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

A case-control investigation of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia was conducted in the town of Carbonia (Sardinia, Italy). Parents of 9 cases diagnosed between 1980 and 1989 and 36 controls were interviewed at their respective residences. None of the risk factors analyzed was associated significantly with childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The following were associated with an increased risk for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: parents born outside of Carbonia, family history of cancer, alcohol consumption by fathers that exceeded 60 g/d, exposure of fathers to solvents at their workplaces, maternal smoking, use of antinausea medications during pregnancy, and presence of a well in the backyard. Chance and recall bias likely played a role in generating positive associations. The increases in childhood leukemia risk associated with the presence of a well and with use of antinausea medications during pregnancy are consistent with previous reports and require further investigation.

Molecular analysis of HLA-DQB1 alleles in childhood common acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

Epidemiological studies suggest that childhood common acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (c-ALL) may be the rare outcome of early post-natal infection with a common infectious agent. One of the factors that may determine whether a child succumbs to c-ALL is how it responds to the candidate infection. Since immune responses to infection are under the partial control of (human leucocyte antigen) HLA genes, an association between an HLA allele and c-ALL could provide support for an infectious aetiology. To define the limit of c-ALL susceptibility within the HLA region, we have compared HLA-DQB1 allele frequencies in a cohort of 62 children with c-ALL with 76 newborn controls, using group-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification, and single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis. We find that a significant excess of children with c-ALL type for DQB1*05 [relative risk (RR): 2.54, uncorrected P=0.038], and a marginal excess with DQB1*0501 (RR: 2.18; P=0.095). Only 3 of the 62 children with c-ALL have the other susceptibility allele, DPB1*0201 as well as DQB1*0501, whereas 15 had one or the other allele. This suggests that HLA-associated susceptibility may be determined independently by at least two loci, and is not due to linkage disequilibrium. The combined relative risk of the two groups of children with DPB1*0201 and/or DQB1*0501 is 2.76 (P=0.0076). Analysis of amino acids encoded by exon 2 of DQB1 reveal additional complexity, with significant (P<0.05) or borderline-significant increases in Gly26, His30, Val57, Glu66-Val67 encoding motifs in c-ALL compared with controls. Since these amino acids are not restricted to DQB1*0501, our results suggest that, as with DPB1, the increased risk of c-ALL associated with DQB1 is determined by specific amino acid encoding motifs rather than by an individual allele. These results also suggest that HLA-associated susceptibility to c-ALL may not be restricted to the region bounded by DPB1 and DQB1.

Cancer incidence on a small island--research opportunities in general practice

OBJECTIVE

To test the impression of an increased cancer incidence on the island of Pellworm (in the far North of Germany) and to illustrate the feasibility of a general practice-based approach in epidemiological research.

DESIGN

Cancer incidence on Pellworm was prospectively registered in the only general practice on the island from 1986 to 1992. Age-standardized rates and expected rates were calculated on the basis of the Saarland cancer registry, the only registry in Germany. Standardized incidence ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for Poisson-distributed events were also calculated. The cancer data were summed up over a seven-year period.

SETTING

The only general practice on the island of Pellworm, a North Frisian marshland-island.

SUBJECTS

The total practice population between 1986 and 1992 (N = 1172)

RESULTS

The crude annual cancer incidence rate for Pellworm was, according to the impression, unexpectedly high: 634/100 000 for men and 502/100 000 for women. After age standardization, however, this increased rate of cancer incidence was even lower than in the Saarland (ratios: 0.86 for men and 0.95 for women). Only the incidence of neoplasms of the lymphatic and haematopoietic tissue in men exceeded the limits of statistical likelihood (ratio: 3.21; 95% CI: 1.17-7.10).

CONCLUSION

The impression of an increased rate of cancer on Pellworm could not be validated. The overall incidence rate was even lower than expected. Only the rate of leukaemia/lymphoma (men) was significantly higher. Reasons for this result could not be detected by a descriptive approach. General practice is a suitable place for studies in cancer epidemiology, especially in such ideal circumstances as a clearly limited area and complete and reliable documentation.

Sero-epidemiological analysis of the risk of virus infections for childhood leukaemia

Virus infections have been thought to be involved in the development of childhood leukaemia. In order to address this issue we determined, in a case-control study, the prevalence of antibodies to viruses infecting blood or bone-marrow cells [Epstein-Barr virsus (EBV), human herpes virus type 6 (HHV-6), parvovirus B19] as well as to the human virus known for its tumour-suppressive properties, the adeno-associated virus type 2 (AAV-2), in the sera of 121 children with leukaemia in Germany, and in 197 control individuals, hospitalized for other reasons, and matched for age and gender to the cases. In addition, we developed a questionnaire to be answered by the children's parents, in order to gain information on previous infections of the children as well as to calculate for factors which may influence serological findings. Comparative determination of the prevalence of antibodies against AAV-2, B-19 or HHV-6 revealed no significant differences in cases and controls. However, antibodies to EBV were more frequently found in children with leukaemia younger than 6 years of age (age at the time of diagnosis of leukaemia) than in controls. Apparently, infection with AAV-2 has no protective effect in childhood leukaemia, in contrast to results observed for other malignancies. Similarly, and in accordance with results on leukaemia in adults, we found no indication of a protective effect of infection with the parvovirus B-19. The data suggest that EBV, which is known to be involved in various lymphomas, may play a role in the development of childhood leukaemia in young children.

Cancer and congenital abnormalities in Asian children: a population-based study from the West Midlands

Cancer and associated congenital abnormalities were investigated in Muslim and non-Muslim Asian children from the West Midlands. Cancer incidence rates were calculated for Indian (non-Muslim), Pakistani/Bangladeshi (Muslim) and white children diagnosed from 1978 to 1992. Incidence was significantly higher in the Pakistanis, with an age-standardised rate (ASR) of 163 cases per million per year, compared with 115 for Indian and 125 for white children. Among Asian cancer patients, congenital malformations were significantly more common in Muslim (21%) compared with non-Muslim (7%). In Muslims the malformation excess was caused by autosomal recessive and dominant disorders (in 8% and 5% of cases respectively). Cancer malformation/predisposition syndromes were found in 10% of Muslims, compared with 2% of non-Muslims. In 33% of the Muslims with malformations, childhood cancer and a malformation were also present in a close relative. None of the non-Muslims with malformations had a relative with childhood cancer. The cancer excess in Muslims may be partly related to inherited genes causing both malformations and cancer. The prevalence of autosomal recessive disorders may be related to consanguinity, which is common in the Pakistani Muslim population. The high incidence of autosomal dominant disorders may be related to older paternal age at conception, giving rise to spontaneous mutations.

Tests for directional space-time interaction in epidemiological data

Spatial incidence of disease is often recorded with time of occurrence as an ordering label. This ordering can be used to provide distance based tests for joint clustering of cases in space and time. Two different tests are proposed: one where a control disease is available, and the other where only standardized rates within census regions are available.

Childhood leukemia in metropolitan regions in the United States: a possible relation to population density?

Following recent research in Great Britain, the geographic incidence of leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among White children in three metropolitan regions of the United States (San Francisco-Oakland, CA; Detroit, MI; and Atlanta, GA) during 1978-82 has been analyzed using census tract-specific data. There was no evidence of a general tendency for cases to cluster geographically, in contrast to results from Britain. Further, rates did not vary with median income or education levels for census tracts. However, there was a statistically significant increasing trend in incidence rates with increasing population density: relative risk for highest relative to lowest category = 1.4 (95% percent confidence interval [CI] = 1.1-2.0) for White population density, and 1.4 (CI = 1.0-2.0) for total population density. The interpretation of these findings is unclear and further investigation is required. It is possible that population density is acting as a surrogate for some virus-related factor.

Childhood leukemia and rural population movements: Greece, Italy, and other countries

Mortality from childhood leukemia was examined particularly in rural countries in relation to any major rural-urban migration. Significant increases have been found in other situations of rural population mixing as predicted by the infection hypothesis. The 1950s and 1960s were of most interest since it preceded the decline in mortality brought about by effective chemotherapy in many countries. The 33 countries covered were all those in the World Health Organization's mortality database. No sensitive measure of rural-urban migration is available for international comparisons. However, it seems noteworthy that Greece and Italy, the two countries with the most striking levels of rural migration in the 1950s and 1960s, also had unusually high mortality rates from childhood leukemia. Greece was most affected proportionally by these population movements and from 1958 to 1972 had the highest recorded mortality from this cause in the world. The problems of international comparisons of mortality data dictate caution in drawing conclusions. However, against a background of other work on population mixing, and in the light of certain considerations, we suggest that the marked rural population mixing in Greece and Italy may have contributed to their high mortality rates from childhood leukemia in the 1950s and 1960s.

Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Cluster in Southwestern Sardinia (Italy)

In response to public concern about an increase in the incidence of leukemia among children in southwestern Sardinia (Italy), incident cases of childhood cancer (ages 0-14) were ascertained among residents in the province of Cagliari, which comprises all of southern Sardinia, in 1974-89. Completeness of the ascertainment of leukemia cases was validated by comparison with estimates derived from official statistics of mortality and survival curves. A significant excess risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (cALL) was found for children residing in the town of Carbonia. The risk was highest in 1983-85, when seven cases occurred versus 0.8 expected. No birth-cohort effect was observed. The cALL incidence rate was significantly higher among children born and residing in Carbonia than among children born in Carbonia but residing elsewhere. However, the cALL cases did not cluster within the town of Carbonia. The proximity of the largest industrial settlement in the region of Sardinia raised the suspicion that environmental pollution was responsible for the observed excess. Information about industrial emissions from this settlement prior to the appearance of the cALL cluster was not sufficient to reject or confirm the hypothesis.

Childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma near large rural construction sites, with a comparison with Sellafield nuclear site

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether population mixing produced by large, non-nuclear construction projects in rural areas is associated with an increase in childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

DESIGN

A study of the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among children living near large construction projects in Britain since 1945, situated more than 20 km from a population centre, involving a workforce of more than 1000, and built over three or more calendar years. For periods before 1962 mortality was studied.

SETTING

Areas within 10 km of relevant sites, and the highland counties of Scotland with many hydroelectric schemes.

SUBJECTS

Children aged under 15.

RESULTS

A 37% excess of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma at 0-14 years of age was recorded during construction and the following calendar year. The excesses were greater at times when construction workers and operating staff overlapped (72%), particularly in areas of relatively high social class. For several sites the excesses were similar to or greater than that near the nuclear site of Sellafield (67%), which is distinctive in its large workforce with many construction workers. Seascale, near Sellafield, with a ninefold increase had an unusually high proportion of residents in social class I. The only study parish of comparable social class also showed a significant excess, with a confidence interval that included the Seascale excess.

CONCLUSION

The findings support the infection hypothesis and reinforce the view that the excess of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma near Sellafield has a similar explanation.

Leukaemia mortality around French nuclear sites

This study was designed to investigate leukaemia mortality in the population under the age of 25 residing around the 13 French nuclear sites operating in 1985. In four geographical zones defined according to the distance from the site, 503 exposed communes were identified and followed up between 1968 and 1989. A total of 4,132,000 person-years of observation were accumulated. The number of leukaemia deaths observed (69) did not differ from the expected number (86.15) estimated according to national mortality statistics. There was no difference in the risks of leukaemia mortality according to sex, age, type of installation and no trend with an increasing distance from installations.

Wartime evacuation and mortality from childhood leukaemia in England and Wales in 1945-9

OBJECTIVE

To discover whether the wartime government evacuation of children from London and other population centres to rural districts was associated with any increase in childhood leukaemia.

DESIGN

Observational study of mortality from leukaemia among the childhood population of England and Wales in relation to the unique population movements during the second world war. The 476 rural districts of England and Wales were ranked according to the ratio of government evacuees (two thirds of them children) to local children in September 1941. The districts were divided into three categories, each with similar numbers of children in 1947 but with different ratios of evacuees to local children ("low," "intermediate," "high"). Mortality from childhood leukaemia was examined in these three rural categories in 1945-9. Urban areas were also examined according to their exposure to evacuees.

SETTING

Local authority areas of England and Wales.

SUBJECTS

Children aged under 15.

RESULTS

47% excess of leukaemia at ages 0-14 years occurred in 1945-9 in the rural "high" category for evacuees relative to the "low" category, with a significant trend across the three categories. There were increases in both the 0-4 and 5-14 year age groups, but these were larger in the older age group. Rates 25% lower than average occurred in rural areas with few evacuees.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that wartime evacuation increased the incidence of childhood leukaemia in rural areas and that other forms of population mixing may have contributed to the increases in past decades. Overall, they add to the appreciable evidence for an infective basis in childhood leukaemia.

Leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: incidence in children and young adults resident in the Dounreay area of Caithness, Scotland in 1968-91

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To review the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children and young adults in the area less than 25 km from the Dounreay nuclear installation and the remainder of the Kirkwall postcode area in the full time period for which data are now available (1968-91), and to determine whether the excess incidence reported in the period up to 1984 has continued in subsequent years.

DESIGN

Geographical incidence study.

SETTING

The Kirkwall postcode area of Scotland.

SUBJECTS

Children and young adults resident in the area in the period 1968-91.

MAIN RESULTS

Observed numbers of cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and observed to expected ratios with expected numbers based on Scottish national rates were determined. In 1968-91, 12 cases were observed compared with 5.2 expected in the zone < 25 km from the Dounreay plant (p = 0.007). In the latest period, 1985-91, which has not previously been examined, four cases were observed compared with 1.4 expected (p = 0.059).

CONCLUSION

The observation of an excess of borderline statistical significance in 1985-91 following the substantial excess incidence which occurred in the early 1980s suggests that the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in this area should continue to be a matter of concern. The phenomenon of high incidences of childhood and young adult leukaemia and lymphoma near some nuclear installations in isolated areas is yet to be explained, but certain aspects of the data examined in the present report are consistent with the hypothesis of an infectious aetiology for leukaemia in very young children.

Viral contacts confound studies of childhood leukemia and high-voltage transmission lines

Studies of childhood leukemia have reported a link with residential proximity to electric utility facilities. This paper elaborates on the hypothesis that residential proximity to electric utility transmission-systems is a surrogate for viral contacts, a potential confounder in these studies. While the causal implications of increased viral contacts is not established, the assumption made here is that a significant component of childhood leukemia has an infectious etiology. Increased viral contacts can result from residential mobility, being first born, or use of community childcare facilities. Re-analysis of existing studies should look specifically for the interaction between childhood leukemia, markers for viral contacts (e.g., residential mobility, birth order, use of outside childcare facilities), and residential proximity to high-voltage transmission lines. New study designs should include parameters to test directly for a virus-related infectious model for childhood leukemia.

Case-control study on the association between a cluster of childhood haematopoietic malignancies and local environmental factors in Aalsmeer, The Netherlands

STUDY OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN

In Aalsmeer, a horticultural community near the main international airport in The Netherlands, a more than fourfold increase in the incidence of haematopoietic malignancies in young people was observed between 1980 and 1985. In a population based case-control study, the association with local environmental factors was investigated.

PARTICIPANTS

For each patient younger than 40 years of age (n = 14) diagnosed between 1975 and 1989, four age and sex matched controls were selected via local general practitioners.

METHODS

All parents of patients and controls completed a questionnaire on their lifestyle, living conditions, and health, for several years preceding each individual diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, matched, and, if necessary, stratified for neighbourhood.

MAIN RESULTS

Increased ORs were recorded for intensive use of petroleum products and pesticides by the patients themselves and their fathers: OR petroleum products: 8.0 (95% CI 2.2, 129.9) and 9.0 (1.0, 66.1) respectively; OR pesticides: 6.0 (0.6, 49.3) and 3.2 (1.0, 10.1) respectively. Swimming in a local pond was also significantly associated with the disease: OR = 5.3 (1.3, 17.4). In the 1970s this pond had been polluted by petroleum products and pesticides.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased incidence of childhood haematopoietic malignancies in Aalsmeer may have been associated with several specific local environmental factors. Interpretation of the results, however, should take into account the fact that confidence intervals were wide because of the limited number of cases.

Childhood malignancies in the south-west region of England, 1976-1985

The incidence and pattern of childhood cancer in the South-West Region of the United Kingdom was studied in the period 1976-1985 to see if there was any unevenness in distribution. This region consists of five counties with considerable variation in radon exposure and urbanisation. Cases were identified from multiple sources and the basis of the diagnosis reviewed. Internationally accepted diagnostic categories were used. Six hundred seventy-eight cases were found, giving an age standardised incidence rate of 114.2 per million childhood years. The incidence of different cancers by sex was strikingly similar to the Manchester Children's Tumour Registry, from a noncontiguous region, with three exceptions. In the South-West, there was a higher rate of soft tissue sarcoma in boys (P = 0.01) and lower rates of sympathetic nervous system and germ-cell tumours in girls (P = 0.01 and P = 0.04, respectively). There was no significant variation in cancer incidence among the five counties or with time. The incidence rate in counties of high radon exposure was not higher than with low radon exposure. The overall incidence in counties with urban districts was not significantly increased compared to those without, although there was a nonsignificant trend towards a higher incidence of leukaemia (P = 0.08). The incidence and type of childhood cancer are similar to those in a noncontiguous region. Geographical and temporal incidence are remarkably stable. Local environmental variation may not play a major role in the causality of childhood cancer.