Estimating population size in wastewater-based epidemiology. Valencia metropolitan area as a case study

Making waves: Wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 - approaches and challenges for surveillance and prediction

The presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the feces of infected patients and wastewater has drawn attention, not only to the possibility of fecal-oral transmission but also to the use of wastewater as an epidemiological tool. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted problems in evaluating the epidemiological scope of the disease using classical surveillance approaches, due to a lack of diagnostic capacity, and their application to only a small proportion of the population. As in previous pandemics, statistics, particularly the proportion of the population infected, are believed to be widely underestimated. Furthermore, analysis of only clinical samples cannot predict outbreaks in a timely manner or easily capture asymptomatic carriers. Threfore, community-scale surveillance, including wastewater-based epidemiology, can bridge the broader community and the clinic, becoming a valuable indirect epidemiological prediction tool for SARS-CoV-2 and other pandemic viruses. This article summarizes current knowledge and discusses the critical factors for implementing wastewater-based epidemiology of COVID-19.

Estimating the prevalence of hepatitis B by wastewater-based epidemiology in 19 cities in China

China has the world's largest burden of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, with 86 million HBV carriers, including 32 million chronic Hepatitis B patients. To monitor the HBV prevalence in near real-time, a wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) method by using lamivudine as a biomarker was conducted in 19 cities in the Southern part of China. LC-MS/MS was utilized to quantify lamivudine in sewage, and satisfactory method validation results were achieved. The average concentration of lamivudine in sewage was 156.4 ± 107.1 ng/L, and the daily consumption was 30.1 ± 19.8 mg/day/1000inh in average ranging from 0.4 to 105.5 mg/day/1000inh. The prevalence of chronic Hepatitis B was estimated to be 2.5% ± 1.7% based on the prevalence of lamivudine usage, which was 0.035% ± 0.023%. Besides, the estimated HBV prevalence in population aged over 15 years in 19 cities was 6.8% ± 4.5% and was consistent with the previous statistical data of 7% in 2018. This research demonstrated that the estimation of HBV prevalence by WBE with lamivudine as a biomarker is feasible in big cities in Southern China.

Can wastewater analysis be used as a tool to assess the burden of pain treatment within a population?

Pain is a global health priority that is challenging to asses. Here we propose a new approach to estimating the burden of pain treatment in a population using wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). WBE is able to quantify multiple pharmaceutical compounds in order to estimate consumption by a population. Wastewater samples collected from areas representing whole communities can be analysed to estimate the consumption of drugs used to treat pain, such as nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and opioids. The collection and analysis of wastewater can be conducted systematically to estimate the total consumption of NSAIDs and/or opioids in the population of a catchment area and to compare changes over time within the catchment or between different catchment populations. Consumption estimates can be combined by standardising the mass consumed to Defined Daily Doses (DDD) or morphine equivalents in order to assess, the population burden of pain treatment from mild to moderate (for NSAIDs) and for strong and severe pain (for opioids). We propose this method could be used to evaluate the total pain treatment burden between locations and over time. While this concept shows promise, future studies should evaluate the applicability as a tool to measure the burden of pain receiving treatment in a community.

Considerations for assessing stability of wastewater-based epidemiology biomarkers using biofilm-free and sewer reactor tests

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an increasingly popular method for analysing drugs or metabolites excreted by populations. The in-sewer transformation of biomarkers is important but often receives little consideration in published studies. Many studies publish stability under biofilm-free conditions only, which do not represent actual sewer conditions. This study aims to fill a gap in the field by comparing the wastewater stability of 33 licit drug and pharmaceutical biomarkers in biofilm-free (BFF) conditions to stability in sewer biofilm reactors. All but one biomarker was stable under BFF conditions, whereas most transformed in sewer biofilm reactors. Sewer reactor results tended to overestimate the degradation in pilot and actual sewers, whereas BFF stability had no clear relationship to stability in pilot and actual sewers. Our results provide additional basis for more informed interpretation of biofilm-free and sewer reactor stability results for past and future WBE studies.

Assessing the trend of diabetes mellitus by analyzing metformin as a biomarker in wastewater

According to International Diabetes Federation estimates, China has the highest rate of diabetes in the world. To monitor the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in near real-time, a first-line medication for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, metformin, was used. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) was applied to estimate the consumption of metformin in Dalian from 2015 to 2018. Quantification of metformin was undertaken using solid-phase extraction (SPE) and N-methyl-bis (trifluoroacetamide) derivatization prior to GC-MS analysis. The concentrations of metformin in eleven wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) ranged from 1.7 μg/L to 239.0 μg/L, with an average value of 68.3 μg/L. For metformin consumption, there was a gradual increase from 12.1 mg/d/capita in 2015 to 28.4 mg/d/capita in 2018. Meanwhile, the prevalence of metformin in the Dalian population ranged from 1.6% in 2015 to 3.8% in 2018. Similarly, the prevalence of DM showed an increasing trend from 12.2% in 2015 to 21.6% in 2018, which is consistent with the data predicted by traditional surveys (15.2-19.8%). Additionally, the prevalence of DM in 2015 estimated based on WBE was 12.2%, which agreed with the results from the traditional survey (12.3%). These results indicated that the proposed method provided a feasible way to reveal the prevalence of DM through metformin monitoring by the WBE approach.

Evaluating the in-sewer stability of three potential population biomarkers for application in wastewater-based epidemiology

Endogenous chemicals specific to human metabolism have been suggested to be good candidates for markers of population size in wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). So far, creatinine is the only endogenous chemical to be assessed against the criteria of in-sewer stability. This study thus aimed to evaluate the fate of three other endogenous compounds, 5-hydroxy indole acetic acid (5-HIAA), cortisol and androstenedione, under different sewer conditions using laboratory-scale sewer reactors. The results showed that while all compounds were stable in wastewater only (i.e. without biofilm), cortisol and androstenedione degraded quickly in sewers with the presence of sewer biofilms. The degradation followed first-order kinetics similar to that of creatinine. In contrast, 5-HIAA was relatively stable in sewer reactors. This study also recognised the impact of wastewater pH on the detectability of 5-HIAA using a LC-MS/MS direct injection method. In samples acidified to pH 2, the method did not allow routine detection/quantification of 5-HIAA whereas in non-acidified samples the method was sufficiently sensitive for routine quantification of 5-HIAA. The stability of 5-HIAA in sewers and the possibility to measure it using a simple and rapid analytical method corroborate that 5-HIAA may be a suitable biomarker for estimation of population size in WBE.

Wastewater analysis for nicotine, cocaine, amphetamines, opioids and cannabis in New York City

According to current surveys and overdoses data, there is a drug crisis in the USA. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an evolving discipline that analyses wastewater samples to detect drugs and metabolites to estimate drug consumption in a certain community. This study demonstrates how drug relative presence could be tracked by testing wastewater, providing real-time results, in different boroughs in New York City throughout 1 year. We developed and fully validated two analytical methods, one for 21 drugs and metabolites, including nicotine, cocaine, amphetamines, opioids and cannabis markers; and another for the normalization factor creatinine. Both methods were performed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) using positive electrospray ionization, achieving a limit of quantification of 5–10 ng/L for drugs and metabolites, and 0.01 mg/L for creatinine. These methods were applied to 48 one-time grab wastewater samples collected from six wastewater treatment plants in New York City (Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn), eight different times throughout 2016, before and after major holidays, including Memorial Day, 4th of July, Labour Day and New Year’s. In this study, the drug group normalized concentrations present in the wastewater samples, in decreasing order, were cocaine, nicotine, opioids, cannabis and amphetamines. When looking at individual compounds, the one with the highest normalized concentration was benzoylecgonine (BE), followed by cotinine, morphine and 11-nor-9-carboxy-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH). To estimate community use, these concentrations were multiplied by the corresponding correction factor, and the most present were THCCOOH, followed by BE, cotinine and morphine. When comparing the treatment plants by drug group (nicotine, cocaine, amphetamines, opioids and cannabis), samples collected from The Bronx had the highest normalized concentrations for nicotine, cocaine and opioids; The Bronx and Manhattan for cannabis; and Manhattan and Queens for amphetamines. In most of the cases, no effect due to holiday was observed. This study provides the first snapshot of drug use in New York City and how that changes between key calendar dates employing wastewater analysis.

Can water quality indicators and biomarkers be used to estimate real-time population?

The precise population estimation, short-term or real-time, is crucial to social and civil management, such as public resource distribution, education budgets, health care, and public safety. In this paper, we reviewed the methods for estimation of real-time population. For real-time population estimation, especially for a certain wastewater treatment plant catchment, many water quality indicators and biomarkers were selected as potential markers and their stability, consumption coefficient, and uncertainty were assessed. The conventional water quality indicators, such as wastewater discharge volume, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, and total phosphorus, were used to calculate the serving population within a WWTP catchment. These parameters are all affected by the behavior, living habits and health conditions of people in different regions. Among them, wastewater discharge volume and ammonia might be more suitable for population estimation than the other parameters which may be influenced by additional industrial discharge. Moreover, acesulfame could be used to estimate the general population, while caffeine, tobacco, and carbamazepine could be applied as biomarkers for a specific population. Furthermore, the per capita loading differ should be considered and measured independently. To reduce the uncertainty of population, comprehensive model with multi-parameters should be developed and applicability should be checked.

Wastewater-based epidemiology in Beijing, China: Prevalence of antibiotic use in flu season and association of pharmaceuticals and personal care products with socioeconomic characteristics

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an emerging field that has mostly been applied to investigate consumption of illicit drugs. In this study, the wastewater-based epidemiology approach was employed to study consumption of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) and measure their prevalence of use in eight densely populated, urban areas of Beijing, China. Ammonium loads were used to estimate the population equivalents of each sewershed. These estimates were applied to calculate population-normalized antibiotic consumption and prevalence of use during flu season, when antibiotics are frequently misused as a medical treatment. Results indicated that 21.9 g d^-1 (10⁴ people)^-1 of ten popular antibiotics were consumed across the eight sewersheds, indicating that 1.98‰ of the 12.5 million population equivalents used these antibiotics during the sampling period. A comparison of these results to calculations made using previously reported data from 2013 suggest that recent Chinese antibiotic control policies have been effective. Uncertainty analyses were conducted to identify the 95% confidence range for antibiotic prevalence of use as 1.44-3.61‰. Human excretion factors were identified as the most sensitive variable. The wastewater-based epidemiology methods were also applied to a wider range of PPCPs, and the results indicated positive relationships between consumption and socioeconomic factors, such as housing price and population density. Overall, this work provides important public health information on antibiotic use and elucidates relationships between PPCP consumption and socioeconomic characteristics.

Assessment of drugs of abuse in a wastewater treatment plant with parallel secondary wastewater treatment train

In this study, 24-hour composite wastewater samples were collected from a wastewater treatment plant of New Zealand with parallel secondary treatment units. The aim was to investigate the occurrence, removal, and consumption of 13 drugs of abuse (DOAs) including illicit drugs, alcohol, nicotine, and their metabolites. The filtered samples were analysed through direct injection on LC-MS/MS. Ethyl sulfate, one of the major metabolites of alcohol, was detected at the highest concentration (mean = 8300 ng/L) in wastewater influent. The mean concentrations of methamphetamine and hydroxycotinine in the influent were found to be 935 ng/L and 5000 ng/L, respectively. Amphetamine (383 ng/L) and cocaine (286 ng/L) were detected at the highest concentrations in the effluent. The removal efficiency of the treatment plant varied for DOAs: >99% for morphine, ethyl sulfate, and hydroxycotinine and <50% for methadone and 2-ethylidene-1,5-dimethyl-3,3-diphenylpyrrolidine (EDDP). Primary treatment did not show any significant removal of DOAs while the removal efficiencies of total monitored DOAs by Membrane Bioreactor (MBR) and Bardenpho processes were found to be similar (~95% removal). The population was estimated using hydrochemical parameters and human urine biomarkers and showed good agreement with wastewater treatment plant's estimates. Weekday-weekend variation in the consumption of alcohol and methamphetamine was found to be significant, with a higher estimated consumption during the weekends. Monitored DOAs in influent were present at highest concentrations during summer (23 μg/L), at low concentrations during winter (17 μg/L), and at lowest concentrations during heavy rainfall event (11 μg/L), possibly due to dilution. The population normalised mass loads of DOAs were found to correlate with their metabolites, and morphine was found to correlate with nicotine metabolites.

Applying a population model based on hydrochemical parameters in wastewater-based epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology combining with a population model based on hydrochemical parameters was applied in 10 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Jilin province, China. Population of WWTPs served was calculated by the model including three hydrochemical parameters ammonia nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand, and total phosphorus. The population model was constructed by using analytic hierarchy process to calculate weight factors of each hydrochemical parameters equivalent population. The size of population estimated by the model showed the highest correlations with cotinine mass load (r²=0.91, p<0.001), demonstrating better population estimation. Meanwhile daily excretion of cotinine per capita was first estimated about 0.68mg in China through liner regression analysis. In accessing the viability of the population model, the abuse of methamphetamine (METH) was calculated. Prevalence of METH use in Jilin province was calculated with an average of 0.72% based on the population model, which was similar with the result reported by United Nations World Drug Report in 2018. In assessing uncertainty of different population estimations, population model showed lower uncertainty than single hydrochemical equivalent population. These results indicate the population model based on hydrochemical parameters reduces uncertainty in population estimation and is a useful tool in monitoring illicit drug abuse.

Assessing Alternative Population Size Proxies in a Wastewater Catchment Area Using Mobile Device Data

Modeling and prediction of a city's (Oslo, Norway) daily dynamic population using mobile device-based population activity data and three low cost markers is presented for the first time. Such data is useful for wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), which is an approach used to estimate the population level use of licit and illicit drugs, new psychoactive substances, human exposure to a wide range of pollutants, such as pesticides or phthalates, as well as the release of endogenous substances such as oxidative stress and allergen biomarkers. Comparing WBE results between cities often requires normalization to population size, and inaccuracy in the measured population can introduce high levels of uncertainty. In this study mobile phone data from 8-weeks in 2016 was used to train three linear models based on drinking water production, electricity consumption and online measurements of ammonium in wastewater. The ammonium model showed the best correlation with R² = 0.88 while drinking water production and electricity consumption showed more discrepancies. The three models were then re-evaluated against 5-week of mobile phone data from 2017 showing mean absolute errors <10%. The ammonium-based estimated mean annual population for Oslo in 2017 was 645 000 inhabitants, 4% higher than the "de jure" population reported by the wastewater treatment plant. Due to changing conditions and seasonality, drinking water production underestimated the population by 27% and electricity consumption overestimated the population by 59%. Therefore, the results of this work showed that the ammonium mass loads can be used as an anthropogenic proxy to monitor and correct the fluctuations in population for a specific catchment area. Furthermore, this approach uses a simple, yet reliable indicator for population size that can be used also in other areas of research.

A circular toxicity approach to isoprostanes: From markers of oxidative stress, to epidemiological warning systems and agents of aquatic toxicity

Isoprostanes (IsoPs) are a class of oxidation products naturally formed in vivo that are indicative of endogenous oxidative stress. In individuals with chronic and oxidative stress related diseases, IsoPs are increased to pathological levels. Since they are excreted through urine into sewage systems, IsoPs can be detected in wastewater treatment plants' (WWTPs) effluents and thus can be used to evaluate the health status of a given population. The underlying principle is that higher isoprostanes WWTPs' levels correspond to populations undergoing higher levels of oxidative stress, and thus disease. However, IsoPs are not eliminated by WWTPs and will end up being released into the aquatic environment, where they will be available for uptake by aquatic species. Being bioactive molecules, it has been suggested that IsoPs in the environment may elicit oxidative stress in aquatic organisms. In this context, we have critically reviewed the available data on IsoPs as products and effectors of toxicity, and propose the new concept of "circular toxicity". In general, IsoPs excreted by humans as a consequence of oxidative stress are released into the aquatic environment where they may interact with aquatic organisms and induce the production of more IsoPs. These stress markers, in turn, will also be excreted, increasing the already high levels of stressors in the aquatic environment and thus create an escalating cycle of oxidative stress.

Tracking narcotics consumption at a Southwestern U.S. university campus by wastewater-based epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) was applied to estimate the consumption of twelve narcotics within a Southwestern U.S. university campus. Seven consecutive 24-hour composite raw wastewater samples (n = 80) were obtained once per month from sampling locations capturing >95% of campus-generated wastewater. Samples were analyzed for indicators of consumption of morphine, codeine, oxycodone, heroin, fentanyl, methadone, buprenorphine, amphetamine, methylphenidate, alprazolam, cocaine, and MDMA using LC-MS/MS. Eleven indicator compounds (oxycodone, codeine, norcodeine, 6-acetylmorphine, EDDP, amphetamine, alprazolam, alpha-hydroxyalprazolam, cocaine, benzoylecgonine, and MDMA) occurred at 100% detection frequency across the study, followed by morphine-3-glucuronide (98%), noroxycodone (95%), methylphenidate (90%), heroin (7%), norfentanyl (7%), and fentanyl (5%). Estimates of average narcotics consumption ranked as follows in units of mg/day/1000 persons: heroin (474 ± 32), cocaine (551 ± 49), amphetamine (256 ± 12), methylphenidate (236 ± 28), methadone (72 ± 8), oxycodone (80 ± 6), alprazolam (60 ± 2), MDMA (88 ± 35), codeine (50 ± 4), and morphine (18 ± 3). This campus-based WBE study yielded baseline data on 12 narcotics for a U.S. campus and demonstrated for the first time the feasibility of detecting the fentanyl metabolite norfentanyl in this setting.

Population mobility and urban wastewater dynamics

Dynamic influent models, which have been proposed to test control strategies using virtual wastewater treatment plants, should be as realistic as possible. The number of inhabitants in the catchment at any given time and their ways of life are among the parameters affecting the quality of these models. Census data related to work and school commutes were used to evaluate the number of people present in a given urban area. Based on the example of a large urban catchment (Grand Nancy, France), the results show that a population increase of 30% could occur during working hours resulting from the imbalance between workers leaving and coming into the catchment. Combined with information related to the local way of life, variation in the population helps to explain changes in wastewater flow rate and pollution (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and heavy metals), which present several maxima reflecting daily activities, such as bladder voiding, meals, the use of washrooms, etc. However, no well-defined variation patterns for pH and conductivity, which are linked to the concentrations of anions and cations in the wastewater, were observed. Slight reductions (up to 10% on Sundays) in the flow and pollution load were observed on weekends as the commuter flow decreased. Census data proved to be efficient in helping to understand the daily pattern of urban wastewater characteristics.

Monitoring wastewater for assessing community health: Sewage Chemical-Information Mining (SCIM)

Timely assessment of the aggregate health of small-area human populations is essential for guiding the optimal investment of resources needed for preventing, avoiding, controlling, or mitigating human exposure risks, as well as for maintaining or promoting health. Seeking those interventions yielding the greatest benefit with respect to the allocation of resources is critical for making progress toward community sustainability, reducing health disparities, promoting social justice, and maintaining or improving collective health and well-being. More informative, faster, and less-costly approaches are needed for guiding investigation of cause-effect linkages involving communities and stressors originating from both the built and natural environments. One such emerging approach involves the continuous monitoring of sewage for chemicals that serve as indicators of the collective status of human health (or stress/disease) or any other facet relevant to gauging time-trends in community-wide health. This nascent approach can be referred to as Sewage Chemical-Information Mining (SCIM) and involves the monitoring of sewage for the information that resides in the form of natural and anthropogenic chemicals that enter sewers as a result of the everyday actions, activities, and behaviors of humans. Of particular interest is a specific embodiment of SCIM that would entail the targeted monitoring of a broad suite of endogenous biomarkers of key physiologic processes (as opposed to xenobiotics or their metabolites). This application is termed BioSCIM-an approach roughly analogous to a hypothetical community-wide collective clinical urinalysis, or to a hypothetical en masse human biomonitoring program. BioSCIM would be used for gauging the status or time-trends in community-wide health on a continuous basis. This paper presents an update on the progress made with the development of the BioSCIM concept in the period of time since its original publication in 2012, as well as the next steps required for its continued development.

Potential impact of the sewer system on the applicability of alcohol and tobacco biomarkers in wastewater-based epidemiology

Understanding the actual consumption of alcohol and tobacco in the population is important for forming public health policy. For this purpose, wastewater-based epidemiology has been applied as a complementary method to estimate the overall alcohol and tobacco consumption in different communities. However, the stability of their consumption biomarkers - ethyl sulfate, ethyl glucuronide, cotinine, and trans-3'-hydroxycotinine - in the sewer system has not yet been assessed. This study aimed to conduct such assessment using sewer reactors mimicking conditions of rising main, gravity sewer, and wastewater alone, over a 12-hour period. The results show that cotinine and trans-3'-hydroxycotinine are relatively stable under all sewer conditions while ethyl sulfate was only stable in wastewater alone and gradually degraded in rising main and gravity sewer conditions. Ethyl glucuronide quickly degraded in all reactors. These findings suggest that cotinine and trans-3'-hydroxycotinine are good biomarkers to estimate tobacco consumption; ethyl sulfate may be used as a biomarker to estimate alcohol consumption, but its in-sewer loss should be accounted for in the calculation of consumption estimates. Ethyl glucuronide, and probably most of glucuronide compounds, are not suitable biomarkers to be used in wastewater-based epidemiology due to their in-sewer instability.

Can wastewater-based epidemiology be used to evaluate the health impact of temperature? - An exploratory study in an Australian population

Ambient temperature is known to have impact on population health but assessing its impact by the traditional cohort approach is resource intensive. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) could be an alternative for the traditional approach. This study was to provide the first evaluation to see if WBE can be used to assess the impact of temperature exposure to a population in South East Queensland, Australia using selected pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) as biomarkers. Daily loads of eight PPCPs in wastewater collected from a wastewater treatment plant were measured from February 2011 to June 2012. Corresponding daily weather data were obtained from the closest weather station. Missing data of PPCPs were handled using the multiple imputation (MI) method, then we used a one-way between-groups analysis of variance to examine the seasonal effect on daily variation of PPCPs by seasons. Finally, an MI estimate was performed to evaluate the continuous relationship between daily average temperature and each multiply-imputed PPCP using time-series regression analysis. The results indicated that an increase of 1°C in average temperature associated with decrease at 1.3g/d (95% CI: -2.2 to (-0.4), p<0.05) for atenolol, increase at 36.5g/d (95% CI: 25.2-47.8, p<0.01) for acesulfame, and increase at 0.8g/d (95% CI: 0.02-1.55, p=0.05) for naproxen. No significant association was observed between temperature and the remaining PPCPs, comprising: caffeine, carbamazepine, codeine, hydrochlorothiazide, and salicylic acid. The findings suggested that consumption of sweetened drinks, risk of worsening cardiovascular conditions and pains are associated with variation in ambient temperature. WBE can thus be used as a complementary method to traditional cohort studies in epidemiological evaluation of the association between environmental factors and health outcomes provided that specific biomarkers of such health outcomes can be identified.